PIONEER CONFERENCE · 2026 SEASON BASELINE · 2026 OUTLOOK
St. Thomas (MN)
Rank #165
Team Mood Card — Offseason Mode
St. Thomas (MN) fan conversation is quiet right now.
The Mood Card lights up during the season, when live fan, national, and rival chatter clears the publish gate. In the offseason we hold the frame open rather than print fake precision. Live signal returns once weekly conversation volume rebuilds.
Cohort Signal
Not enough fan conversation has cleared this week's publish threshold yet (we wait for ≥30 weighted posts before showing a number). How we set the bar ›
Fanbase Archetype
How this fanbase sorts in the Fan Intelligence taxonomy (N° 04 on the Hub).
Fanbase Archetype
The Quiet Professional
Primary: 72% confidence
Fanbases with no delusions. They know exactly who their team is: good enough to win 8-10 games, not good enough to win it all. They are at peace with this.
SIGNATURE PHRASE
“We know what we are”
MODIFIERS
· Entrenched
5-Season Migration
Performance Narrative
Betting Lens
Market context is a second read on the season: how often this team rewarded believers, disappointed them, or played into totals differently than expected.
Efficiency Dashboard
Opponent-adjusted efficiency cards organized as a premium team dashboard.
Offense
0th pct
Defense
0th pct
Adjusted values: +0.00 offense, +0.00 defense
Sample: 0 opponent-adjusted games in the current build.
Offense
0th pct
Defense
0th pct
Adjusted values: +0.00 offense, +0.00 defense
Sample: 0 opponent-adjusted games in the current build.
Offense
0th pct
Defense
0th pct
Adjusted values: +0.00 offense, +0.00 defense
Sample: 0 opponent-adjusted games in the current build.
Offense
0th pct
Defense
0th pct
Adjusted values: +0.00 offense, +0.00 defense
Sample: 0 opponent-adjusted games in the current build.
Offense
0th pct
Defense
0th pct
Adjusted values: +0.00 offense, +0.00 defense
Sample: 0 opponent-adjusted games in the current build.
Offense
0th pct
Defense
0th pct
Adjusted values: +0.00 offense, +0.00 defense
Sample: 0 opponent-adjusted games in the current build.
Why The Model Has Them Here
A team page should explain the ranking, not just print it.
Power -1.7
Currently -1.7 versus the all-level average team on a neutral field. Offensive Efficiency currently grades around the 0th percentile.
Open the compare board or matchup studio to pressure-test this profile against the teams around it.
Resume 43
Body of work: best signal Awaiting richer model delta history.. Closest call No negative swing on file yet.. 43rd percentile season.
Open the compare board or matchup studio to pressure-test this profile against the teams around it.
Upcoming schedule still settling.
Last four games: Upcoming schedule still settling.. Power and resume are essentially aligned through the most recent season.
Open the compare board or matchup studio to pressure-test this profile against the teams around it.
2026 Season
Biggest slice of the season so far: Regular Season at 0-0. Even if a bowl or playoff game lands in early 2027, it still belongs to this season page.
Open the compare board or matchup studio to pressure-test this profile against the teams around it.
Placement Context
This is where the team sits inside the all-level board, its own subdivision, and its own conference ecosystem.
Overall Board#165
Inside FCS#34 of 120
Inside Pioneer#3 of 11
Power-1.7pts vs avg NCAA team
Resume4343rd percentile season
Cross-Level NeighborSam Houston
Use these shortcuts to jump from this team to the neighbors that best explain its place on the board, including the closest cross-level comparison.
Closest Neighbors
The quickest way to explain a ranking is often to show the teams immediately around it.
Overall Ahead
Power +0.1 | Resume +0
#164 Presbyterian
FCS | Pioneer
Overall Behind
Power -0.0 | Resume +0
#166 Eastern Kentucky
FCS | UAC
FCS Ahead
Power +0.1 | Resume +0
#164 Presbyterian
FCS | Pioneer
Pioneer Ahead
Power +0.1 | Resume +0
#164 Presbyterian
FCS | Pioneer
Cross-Level Neighbor
Power -0.1 | Resume -1
#168 Sam Houston
FBS | Conference USA
Historical Snapshot
Fans should be able to see the short version immediately: how big the loaded sample is, what this program's standard looks like, and where the current season sits inside that arc.
The number of fully modeled seasons currently attached to this program.
A recent multi-year closing-power average. This is the kind of anchor that should matter in preseason priors.
How the current season's closing power stacks up against the program's recent standard.
How far the current season finished below the strongest loaded team in program history.
The strongest closing power this program has posted in the loaded archive.
This is the program's best power season since 2022.
This is the program's best resume season since 2022.
The highest loaded all-level board finish currently attached to this program.
The strongest body-of-work season currently attached to this program in the loaded archive.
Where the current season sits inside this program's loaded history on the two main scales.
A cleaner fan-facing answer to the question: is this near the top of the program's arc or just another solid year?
The cleanest results season in the loaded archive, regardless of whether it was also the strongest by power.
Program Arc
Bars track win rate. The line tracks end-of-season power, so users can see whether the program is actually getting stronger or just stacking wins.
Bars: win rate
Line: public power vs average team
Season Phase Split
How this season breaks apart inside the same year-defined competitive cycle.
Regular Season 0-0 in 2 games
| Phase | Record | Games |
|---|---|---|
| Regular Season | 0-0 | 2 |
Loaded History Signals
This is the fastest way to explain what the last few seasons say about the program, and why prior success should matter in the next preseason cycle.
2022 Season
Ended at power +1.8, record 10-1, and final loaded-board rank #124.
2022 Season
Resume 78 / 100 with 10 wins and a 91% win rate.
+1.3 power
From 2024 to 2025, the program moved from -1.4 to -0.1.
10-1
The cleanest loaded season by results came in 2022, with a margin of +169.
Impact Cards
A card-based alternate view of the same rating swings for fans who want the season game by game.
Week 1
Regular Season
@ North Dakota
Result
Scheduled
Pregame
--
Power
--
Resume
--
Postgame
--
Week 1
Regular Season
vs Winona State
Result
Scheduled
Pregame
--
Power
--
Resume
--
Postgame
--
2026 Season Schedule And Rating Movement
Every result, every phase, and how the rating changed because of it.
| Week | Date | Game | Phase | Result | Close | ATS | Total | Pregame | Power Change | Resume Change | Postgame |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 27, 2026 | vs Winona State DII | Regular Season | Scheduled | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 1 | Sep 5, 2026 | @ North Dakota FCS | Regular Season | Scheduled | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
Year-By-Year Results
The competitive story by season, kept cleanly tied to the year each season began.
| Season | Lens | Record | Final Rank | End Power | End Resume | Games | Points For | Points Against | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | CurrentThis season anchors the current board. | 7-5 | #148 | -0.1 | 58 | 12 | 371 | 246 | +125 |
| 2024 | In rangeA season that landed inside the normal historical band. | 6-6 | #175 | -1.4 | 32 | 12 | 274 | 301 | -27 |
| 2023 | In rangeA season that landed inside the normal historical band. | 8-3 | #159 | -0.5 | 51 | 11 | 265 | 243 | +22 |
| 2022 | Peak powerStrongest loaded closing power for the program. | 10-1 | #124 | +1.8 | 78 | 11 | 358 | 189 | +169 |
| 2021 | Down yearFinished meaningfully below the program's recent standard. | 7-3 | #235 | -4.5 | 54 | 10 | 250 | 178 | +72 |
| 2015 | Down yearFinished meaningfully below the program's recent standard. | 0-1 | #304 | -28.2 | 66 | 1 | 35 | 49 | -14 |