PIONEER CONFERENCE · 2025 SEASON BASELINE · 2026 OUTLOOK
St. Thomas (MN)
Rank #162
Team Mood Card — Offseason Mode
St. Thomas (MN) fan conversation is quiet right now.
The Mood Card lights up during the season, when live fan, national, and rival chatter clears the publish gate. In the offseason we hold the frame open rather than print fake precision. Live signal returns once weekly conversation volume rebuilds.
Cohort Signal
Not enough fan conversation has cleared this week's publish threshold yet (we wait for ≥30 weighted posts before showing a number). How we set the bar ›
Fanbase Archetype
How this fanbase sorts in the Fan Intelligence taxonomy (N° 04 on the Hub).
Fanbase Archetype
The Quiet Professional
Primary: 72% confidence
Fanbases with no delusions. They know exactly who their team is: good enough to win 8-10 games, not good enough to win it all. They are at peace with this.
SIGNATURE PHRASE
“We know what we are”
MODIFIERS
· Entrenched
5-Season Migration
Performance Narrative
Season Rating Journey
One line tells the story. Hover or tap any marker to see the exact game and how many power points it moved the rating. Larger markers mean bigger swings.
Rating rose
Rating fell
Little movement
Ring shows opponent level
Result
--
Power Swing
--
Rating Path
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Week 7 · @ Davidson
Week 9 · @ Stetson
Week 8 · vs Valparaiso
Betting Lens
Market context is a second read on the season: how often this team rewarded believers, disappointed them, or played into totals differently than expected.
Week 10 vs Marist
Cover by +31.00 against a closing line of -14.0.
Week 13 vs North Dakota State
No cover by -21.50. These are the losses bettors remember.
Week 8 vs Valparaiso
Over versus 48.5 by +23.50 points.
Efficiency Dashboard
Opponent-adjusted efficiency cards organized as a premium team dashboard.
Offense
64th pct
Defense
54th pct
Adjusted values: +0.04 offense, +0.10 defense
Sample: 12 opponent-adjusted games in the current build.
Offense
64th pct
Defense
78th pct
Adjusted values: -0.02 offense, -0.09 defense
Sample: 12 opponent-adjusted games in the current build.
Offense
72nd pct
Defense
26th pct
Adjusted values: +0.34 offense, -0.34 defense
Sample: 12 opponent-adjusted games in the current build.
Offense
0th pct
Defense
0th pct
Adjusted values: +0.00 offense, +0.00 defense
Sample: 0 opponent-adjusted games in the current build.
Offense
0th pct
Defense
0th pct
Adjusted values: +0.00 offense, +0.00 defense
Sample: 0 opponent-adjusted games in the current build.
Offense
76th pct
Defense
15th pct
Adjusted values: +0.09 offense, -0.10 defense
Sample: 12 opponent-adjusted games in the current build.
Why The Model Has Them Here
A team page should explain the ranking, not just print it.
Power +10.1
Currently +10.1 versus the all-level average team on a neutral field. Defensive Efficiency currently grades around the 78th percentile.
Open the compare board or matchup studio to pressure-test this profile against the teams around it.
Resume 78
Body of work: best signal beat Davidson 57-13. Closest call lost to North Dakota State 7-62. 78th percentile season.
Open the compare board or matchup studio to pressure-test this profile against the teams around it.
2-2 over the last 4 (W10 W11 L12 L13)
Last four games: 2-2 over the last 4 (W10 W11 L12 L13). Resume is 2 points ahead of power through the most recent season — results are outpacing the underlying strength rating.
Open the compare board or matchup studio to pressure-test this profile against the teams around it.
2025 Season
Biggest slice of the season so far: Regular Season at 7-5. Even if a bowl or playoff game lands in early 2026, it still belongs to this season page.
Open the compare board or matchup studio to pressure-test this profile against the teams around it.
Placement Context
This is where the team sits inside the all-level board, its own subdivision, and its own conference ecosystem.
Overall Board#162
Inside FCS#42 of 129
Inside Pioneer#4 of 11
Power+10.1pts vs avg NCAA team
Resume7878th percentile season
Cross-Level NeighborApp State
Use these shortcuts to jump from this team to the neighbors that best explain its place on the board, including the closest cross-level comparison.
Closest Neighbors
The quickest way to explain a ranking is often to show the teams immediately around it.
Overall Ahead
Power +0.1 | Resume -37
#161 Nevada
FBS | Mountain West
Overall Behind
Power -0.0 | Resume -17
#163 Stony Brook
FCS | CAA
FCS Ahead
Power +0.2 | Resume -25
#158 Duquesne
FCS | NEC
Pioneer Ahead
Power +0.9 | Resume -2
#136 San Diego
FCS | Pioneer
Cross-Level Neighbor
Power -0.1 | Resume -23
#167 App State
FBS | Sun Belt
Historical Snapshot
Fans should be able to see the short version immediately: how big the loaded sample is, what this program's standard looks like, and where the current season sits inside that arc.
Program Arc
Bars track win rate. The line tracks end-of-season power, so users can see whether the program is actually getting stronger or just stacking wins.
Season Phase Split
How this season breaks apart inside the same year-defined competitive cycle.
Regular Season 7-5 in 12 games
| Phase | Record | Games |
|---|---|---|
| Regular Season | 7-5 | 12 |
Loaded History Signals
This is the fastest way to explain what the last few seasons say about the program, and why prior success should matter in the next preseason cycle.
Impact Cards
A card-based alternate view of the same rating swings for fans who want the season game by game.
Week 13
Regular Season
@ North Dakota State
Result
Loss
Pregame
-1.09
Power
-1.33
Resume
-0.11
Postgame
-2.43
Week 12
Regular Season
vs Presbyterian
Result
Loss
Pregame
-0.39
Power
-0.70
Resume
-0.13
Postgame
-1.09
Week 11
Regular Season
@ Drake
Result
Win
Pregame
-1.15
Power
+0.76
Resume
+0.08
Postgame
-0.39
Week 10
Regular Season
vs Marist
Result
Win
Pregame
-2.22
Power
+1.06
Resume
+0.08
Postgame
-1.15
Week 9
Regular Season
@ Stetson
Result
Win
Pregame
-4.03
Power
+1.81
Resume
+0.11
Postgame
-2.22
Week 8
Regular Season
vs Valparaiso
Result
Win
Pregame
-5.52
Power
+1.50
Resume
+0.10
Postgame
-4.03
Week 7
Regular Season
@ Davidson
Result
Win
Pregame
-7.39
Power
+1.87
Resume
+0.15
Postgame
-5.52
Week 6
Regular Season
vs Butler
Result
Loss
Pregame
-7.48
Power
+0.09
Resume
-0.12
Postgame
-7.39
Week 5
Regular Season
@ San Diego
Result
Loss
Pregame
-7.78
Power
+0.30
Resume
-0.19
Postgame
-7.48
Week 3
Regular Season
@ Northern Michigan
Result
Win
Pregame
-8.39
Power
+0.48
Resume
+0.05
Postgame
-7.92
Week 2
Regular Season
@ Idaho
Result
Loss
Pregame
-9.40
Power
+1.00
Resume
-0.49
Postgame
-8.39
Week 1
Regular Season
vs Lindenwood
Result
Win
Pregame
-10.64
Power
+1.24
Resume
+0.00
Postgame
-9.40
2025 Season Schedule And Rating Movement
Every result, every phase, and how the rating changed because of it.
| Week | Date | Game | Phase | Result | Close | ATS | Total | Pregame | Power Change | Resume Change | Postgame |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 28, 2025 | vs Lindenwood FCS | Regular Season | W 35-13 | +6.5 | Cover | 51.5 | Under | -10.64 | +1.24 | +0.00 | -9.40 |
| 2 | Sep 6, 2025 | @ Idaho FCS | Regular Season | L 30-37 | +21.5 | Cover | 47.5 | Over | -9.40 | +1.00 | -0.49 | -8.39 |
| 3 | Sep 13, 2025 | @ Northern Michigan DII | Regular Season | W 20-7 | -- | -- | -- | -8.39 | +0.48 | +0.05 | -7.92 |
| 5 | Sep 27, 2025 | @ San Diego FCS | Regular Season | L 27-30 | +1.0 | No cover | 53.5 | Over | -7.78 | +0.30 | -0.19 | -7.48 |
| 6 | Oct 4, 2025 | vs Butler FCS | Regular Season | L 14-21 | -6.5 | No cover | 48.5 | Under | -7.48 | +0.09 | -0.12 | -7.39 |
| 7 | Oct 11, 2025 | @ Davidson FCS | Regular Season | W 57-13 | -21.5 | Cover | 56.5 | Over | -7.39 | +1.87 | +0.15 | -5.52 |
| 8 | Oct 18, 2025 | vs Valparaiso FCS | Regular Season | W 55-17 | -27.5 | Cover | 48.5 | Over | -5.52 | +1.50 | +0.10 | -4.03 |
| 9 | Oct 25, 2025 | @ Stetson FCS | Regular Season | W 52-10 | -25.5 | Cover | 54.5 | Over | -4.03 | +1.81 | +0.11 | -2.22 |
| 10 | Nov 1, 2025 | vs Marist FCS | Regular Season | W 45-0 | -14.0 | Cover | 50.5 | Under | -2.22 | +1.06 | +0.08 | -1.15 |
| 11 | Nov 8, 2025 | @ Drake FCS | Regular Season | W 20-13 | +2.5 | Cover | 47.5 | Under | -1.15 | +0.76 | +0.08 | -0.39 |
| 12 | Nov 15, 2025 | vs Presbyterian FCS | Regular Season | L 9-23 | -5.5 | No cover | 47.5 | Under | -0.39 | -0.70 | -0.13 | -1.09 |
| 13 | Nov 22, 2025 | @ North Dakota State FCS | Regular Season | L 7-62 | +33.5 | No cover | 51.5 | Over | -1.09 | -1.33 | -0.11 | -2.43 |
Year-By-Year Results
The competitive story by season, kept cleanly tied to the year each season began.
| Season | Lens | Record | Final Rank | End Power | End Resume | Games | Points For | Points Against | Margin |
|---|