2026 season · Week 4 · Updated Sep 22, 2026

College football rankings

Our model, the human polls, and what Vegas thinks — on one board. Where they agree, that's consensus. Where they don't, that's a story.

CFB Zeitgeist — live
AP + Coaches — week 4
Committee — starts Oct 28
Vegas — live
Through week 4, our model and the major sportsbooks already diverge on 3 teams. The biggest gap: UTSA — we have them #11, Vegas has them #98.
How this is computed →
Divergence watch 3 biggest model vs. Vegas gaps
We believe · Vegas is not yet
UTSA American Athletic
#11 Our model
#98 Vegas
#1#25
We have them #11. Vegas has them #98 (+162500 to win it all) — 87 spots behind us.
Vegas is in · we're skeptical
West Virginia Big 12
#119 Our model
#45 Vegas
#1#25
6.5 projected wins. Our model has them #119 — 74 spots lower.
We believe · Vegas is not yet
UAB American Athletic
#65 Our model
#133 Vegas
#1#25
We have them #65. Vegas has them #133 (+1000000 to win it all) — 68 spots behind us.
Polls & our model Live
Bettors Live
Résumé After wk 1
Belief Live
Level: FBS Show: All Top 25 Gaps only
Team
Our model
Human polls
Bettors
Gap track (rank 1 → 25)
Team CFB Zeitgeist▲ AP Coaches Committee Win total us vegas
1 Ohio State Big Ten
114.7
7▼1
7
Oct 28
9.5 W
+540
#1#25
2 Georgia SEC
214.4
2
2
Oct 28
10.5 W
+625
#1#25
3 Notre Dame FBS Independents
314.2
3
3
Oct 28
11.5 W
+650
#1#25
4 Texas SEC
413.1
1
1
Oct 28
10.0 W
+600
#1#25
5 Oregon Big Ten
512.1
20▲1
16
Oct 28
9.0 W
+2500
#1#25
6 Indiana Big Ten
611.1
5▼1
4
Oct 28
10.5 W
+900
#1#25
7 Texas Tech Big 12
710.6
11▲2
10
Oct 28
10.5 W
+3000
#1#25
8 Miami ACC
810.6
6▼1
5
Oct 28
10.5 W
+800
#1#25
9 BYU Big 12
910.3
9▲2
9
Oct 28
9.5 W
+9000
#1#25
10 Texas A&M SEC
1010.3
23▼14
20
Oct 28
7.5 W
+6000
#1#25
11 UTSA American Athletic
118.5
NR
NR
Oct 28
—
+162500
#1#25
12 Houston Big 12
128.5
25▼3
NR
Oct 28
8.5 W
+25000
#1#25
― On the bubble
13 SMU ACC
138.3
22▼6
25
Oct 28
8.5 W
+15000
#1#25
14 Ole Miss SEC
148.2
4▲4
6
Oct 28
8.5 W
+1700
#1#25
15 Northwestern Big Ten
158.0
NR
NR
Oct 28
6.5 W
+87500
#1#25
16 Alabama SEC
167.7
8▲2
8
Oct 28
8.5 W
+2700
#1#25
17 Florida SEC
177.6
21
22
Oct 28
8.0 W
+5000
#1#25
18 Oklahoma SEC
187.4
NR
24
Oct 28
6.5 W
+4000
#1#25
19 Iowa Big Ten
197.4
17▲1
17
Oct 28
8.5 W
+14000
#1#25
20 LSU SEC
207.3
10▼3
11
Oct 28
8.5 W
+1500
#1#25
21 Michigan Big Ten
216.9
18▲1
18
Oct 28
7.5 W
+8000
#1#25
22 Tennessee SEC
226.5
14▲1
13
Oct 28
8.5 W
+4500
#1#25
23 South Carolina SEC
236.4
NR
NR
Oct 28
—
+12500
#1#25
24 Utah Big 12
246.3
15▲2
15
Oct 28
9.5 W
+10000
#1#25
25 Kansas State Big 12
256.3
NR
NR
Oct 28
8.5 W
+27500
#1#25
CFB Zeitgeist — composite model: power rating + schedule strength + cross-division context. AP / Coaches — official human polls; week 4 live. Committee — CFP selection committee rankings begin Oct 28 (week 10). Bettors — consensus win total + CFP futures across major sportsbooks.
Blue = our model rank Gold = Vegas rank (by win total) Orange shading = high human poll rank (1 – 5)
AP Top 25 — others receiving votes: Washington 172; Florida 83; Boise State 57; Oklahoma State 36; Western Michigan 35; Tulsa 18; Mississippi State 17; South Carolina 15; Virginia Tech 11; UCLA 9; James Madison 6; Arizona 5; North Dakota State 3; Kansas State 1; Pittsburgh 1
Coaches Poll — others receiving votes: Louisville 153; Florida 147; TCU 63; Illinois 62; Arizona 50; South Carolina 50; Virginia 40; Vanderbilt 37; Auburn 29; Georgia Tech 26; Boise State 24; Oklahoma State 22; UNLV 17; Florida State 13; NC State 13; Nebraska 12; Virginia Tech 12; Memphis 9; Arizona State 8; Duke 6; James Madison 6; New Mexico 4; Pittsburgh 4; Navy 3; Western Michigan 3; San Diego State 2; California 1; Hawai'i 1; Jacksonville State 1; Kansas State 1
Biggest gap — Vegas above us
West Virginia
+74 spots
Biggest gap — us above Vegas
UTSA
+87 spots
Books sampled
3 – 5
Consensus median · de-vigged title %
Win totals — what Vegas expects
Consensus line across major sportsbooks. The over/under on season wins before a snap is played.
Team
Projected wins
Line
Title %
Ohio State
9.5
15.6%
Texas
10.0
14.3%
Georgia
10.5
13.8%
Notre Dame
11.5
13.3%
Miami
10.5
11.1%
Indiana
10.5
10.0%
LSU
8.5
6.2%
Ole Miss
8.5
5.6%
Oregon
9.0
3.8%
Alabama
8.5
3.6%
Texas Tech
10.5
3.2%
USC
8.5
2.8%
Oklahoma
6.5
2.4%
Tennessee
8.5
2.2%
Florida
8.0
2.0%
Penn State
9.5
1.6%
Texas A&M
7.5
1.6%
Michigan
7.5
1.2%
BYU
9.5
1.1%
Utah
9.5
1.0%
Missouri
6.5
1.0%
Auburn
6.5
1.0%
Louisville
8.5
0.9%
Iowa
8.5
0.7%
SMU
8.5
0.7%
Source: consensus median across major sportsbooks · de-vigged CFP championship futures
Model rank vs. Vegas rank
Gold dot = where Vegas ranks the team by win total. Blue dot = CFB Zeitgeist rank.
Vegas rank (win total)
CFB Zeitgeist rank
Ohio State
V#1 · #1
Georgia
V#3 · #2
Notre Dame
V#4 · #3
Texas
V#2 · #4
Oregon
V#9 · #5
Indiana
V#6 · #6
Texas Tech
V#11 · #7
Miami
V#5 · #8
#1#6#11#16#21
Source: CFB Zeitgeist model · consensus median across major sportsbooks
Résumé rankings
What each team has earned on the field — wins over ranked opponents, margin in key games, schedule strength. Starts populating after week 1 (Aug 29).
Available Aug 30
Fan heat index — how each fanbase is running right now. Drawn from Reddit discussion volume, sentiment, and tone across the past seven days. Offseason readings: treat direction (▲▼) as more reliable than absolute rank.
Rising this week
Louisville
▲29.8
82 pts · Uneasy
UAB
▲27.1
82 pts · Uneasy
New Mexico
▲26.9
80 pts · Uneasy
Falling this week
Penn State
▼46.1
6 pts · Ice cold
Colorado
▼33.0
8 pts · Ice cold
Sacramento State
▼15.0
37 pts · Cooked
# Team Belief score This week Zone vs. Market
1Marshall85▲25.1so_back—
2Louisville82▲29.8Uneasy—
3UAB82▲27.1Uneasy—
4New Mexico80▲26.9Uneasy—
5Missouri State79▲8.7Cooking—
6East Carolina78—Cooking—
7Mississippi State78▲26.4Cooking—
8Coastal Carolina77▲16.4Cooking—
9Oklahoma State76▲18.9Cooking—
10Troy75▲12.6Cooking—
11Sam Houston75▲17.1Cooking—
12Toledo75▲17.4Cooking—
13Tulane72▲26.6Cooking—
14Fresno State72▲14.9Cooking—
15UL Monroe72—Cooking—
16Louisiana72▲2.1Cooking—
17North Dakota State71▲12.2Cooking—
18West Virginia70▲16.9Cooking—
19Georgia State70▲17.1Cooking—
20Iowa State70▲16.0Cooking—
21Alabama70▲18.1CookingFans +70
22Stanford69▲14.5Cooking—
23Western Kentucky69▼0.3Cooking—
24Arizona69▲10.0Cooking—
25Houston69▲8.5Cooking—
26Arizona State68▲18.6Cooking—
27Miami (OH)68▲15.0Cooking—
28Tulsa68▲8.8Cooking—
29Utah68▲11.5Cooking—
30Memphis68▲6.4Cooking—
31Louisiana Tech68▲12.7Cooking—
32Georgia Southern67▲24.6Cooking—
33UConn67▲7.5Cooking—
34Tennessee66▲16.7Cooking—
35James Madison66▲6.6Cooking—
36Colorado State66▲6.5Cooking—
37Delaware66▲7.4Cooking—
38New Mexico State66▲8.0Cooking—
39Purdue66▲8.8Cooking—
40Boston College66▲12.2Cooking—
41App State65▼2.1Cooking—
42UCF64▲18.4Cooking—
43Middle Tennessee64▲0.5Cooking—
44Baylor64▲14.8Cooking—
45Wyoming64▲13.4Cooking—
46Ohio63▲7.3Cooking—
47Nevada63▲15.5Uneasy—
48Temple63▲14.2Uneasy—
49Florida63▲9.7Uneasy—
50Kentucky62▲6.0Uneasy—
51Vanderbilt62▲12.6Uneasy—
52South Florida62▼0.3Cooking—
53California61▲9.4Uneasy—
54Ball State61▲4.0Uneasy—
55Nebraska61▲3.0Uneasy—
56Northwestern61▼3.2Cooking—
57Wake Forest60▲2.0Uneasy—
58Syracuse60▲13.1Uneasy—
59Ole Miss60▲10.5Uneasy—
60UCLA60▲1.7Uneasy—
61Akron60▲7.2Uneasy—
62Northern Illinois60▲10.9Uneasy—
63Bowling Green60▲16.7Uneasy—
64Southern Miss60▲0.3Uneasy—
65Michigan60▲8.5UneasyFans +80
66SMU59▲6.1Uneasy—
67Virginia Tech59▲1.7Uneasy—
68Boise State59▲14.6Uneasy—
69South Alabama59▼1.6Cooking—
70UTEP59▼11.4Cooking—
71Missouri59▲15.2Uneasy—
72Notre Dame59▲3.9UneasyFans +10
73Michigan State58▲4.8Uneasy—
74Hawai'i58▲0.2Uneasy—
75USC57▲9.3Uneasy—
76San Diego State57▲7.6Uneasy—
77Florida Atlantic57▲0.2Uneasy—
78Utah State56▲8.8Uneasy—
79Oregon56▲11.4UneasyFans +20
80UTSA56▼3.5Uneasy—
81Pittsburgh56▲0.3Uneasy—
82Jacksonville State56▲7.8Uneasy—
83Indiana56▲4.3Uneasy—
84Iowa55▲1.5Uneasy—
85Liberty54▲3.7Uneasy—
86San José State54▼7.6Uneasy—
87BYU54▼0.9Uneasy—
88North Texas54▼1.9Uneasy—
89Cincinnati53▲7.0Uneasy—
90Kennesaw State53▼9.6Uneasy—
91Oregon State53▼2.4Uneasy—
92North Carolina53▼2.4Uneasy—
93Georgia Tech53▲3.3Uneasy—
94Rice53▲2.2Uneasy—
95Virginia52▲3.6Uneasy—
96Rutgers52▲4.6Uneasy—
97Buffalo52▼0.7Uneasy—
98Massachusetts52▼10.0Uneasy—
99Texas52▲0.6UneasyMkt +40
100Texas State51▼0.1Uneasy—
101UNLV51▼10.8Uneasy—
102Ohio State51▲3.5UneasyMkt +40
103Miami51▼1.5UneasyMkt +10
104Illinois51▼1.8Uneasy—
105Minnesota50▼3.1Uneasy—
106Georgia50▲1.2UneasyMkt +50
107Florida International50▲5.4Uneasy—
108Texas Tech50▼2.9Uneasy—
109Clemson50▼2.4Uneasy—
110Duke48▼7.0Uneasy—
111Washington48▲2.1Uneasy—
112Air Force48▼5.0Uneasy—
113Oklahoma48▲4.0Uneasy—
114Washington State48▼3.6Uneasy—
115Arkansas47▲3.9Uneasy—
116Florida State46▲0.5Uneasy—
117Texas A&M46▼4.1Uneasy—
118Charlotte45▲0.4Uneasy—
119Navy45▼7.4Uneasy—
120Kansas State45▼7.5Uneasy—
121Old Dominion45▼4.3Uneasy—
122TCU44▼0.2Uneasy—
123Maryland44▼4.0Uneasy—
124LSU43▼5.0UneasyMkt +30
125Kansas43▼9.0Uneasy—
126Wisconsin42▼1.3Uneasy—
127South Carolina42▼8.1Uneasy—
128Western Michigan41▲0.6Uneasy—
129Army39▼13.0Uneasy—
130Auburn39▼14.2Uneasy—
131Arkansas State38▼10.2Uneasy—
132Sacramento State37▼15.0Cooked—
133NC State33▼13.2Cooked—
134Colorado8▼33.0Ice cold—
135Penn State6▼46.1Ice cold—
~ = low-signal (106 of 135 programs — offseason readings are directional, not definitive). vs. Market shows fan belief percentile minus Vegas percentile where available.