CFB Rankings 2026 — CFB Zeitgeist

Through week 1, our model and the major sportsbooks already diverge on 3 teams. The biggest gap: North Carolina — we have them #110, Vegas has them #47.

Divergence watch 3 biggest model vs. Vegas gaps

We believe · Vegas is not yet

North Carolina ACC

#110 Our model

#47 Vegas

#1#25

We have them #110. Vegas has them #47 (+40000 to win it all) — 63 spots behind us.

Vegas is in · we're skeptical

UTSA American Athletic

#33 Our model

#95 Vegas

#1#25

7.5 projected wins. Our model has them #33 — 62 spots lower.

We believe · Vegas is not yet

Oklahoma State Big 12

#98 Our model

#44 Vegas

#1#25

We have them #98. Vegas has them #44 (+40000 to win it all) — 54 spots behind us.

Polls & our model Live

Bettors Live

Résumé After wk 1

Belief Live

Level: FBS Show: All Top 25 Gaps only

Team

Our model

Human polls

Bettors

Gap track (rank 1 → 25)

Team	CFB Zeitgeist▲	AP	Coaches	Committee	Win total	us vegas
1 Notre Dame FBS Independents	117.3	NR	5	NR	11.5 W +650	#1#25
2 Ohio State Big Ten	216.3	NR	1	NR	9.5 W +600	#1#25
3 Miami ACC	314.1	NR	7	NR	10.5 W +1100	#1#25
4 Indiana Big Ten	414.1	NR	6	NR	10.5 W +800	#1#25
5 Georgia SEC	514.0	NR	3	NR	9.5 W +850	#1#25
6 Oregon Big Ten	613.8	NR	2	NR	10.5 W +800	#1#25
7 Texas Tech Big 12	712.9	NR	12	NR	10.5 W +2000	#1#25
8 Texas SEC	812.4	NR	4	NR	9.5 W +700	#1#25
9 Ole Miss SEC	911.5	NR	10	NR	7.5 W +2500	#1#25
10 Texas A&M SEC	1011.5	NR	8	NR	8.5 W +1800	#1#25
11 Alabama SEC	1110.3	NR	11	NR	8.5 W +2200	#1#25
12 Penn State Big Ten	129.8	NR	17	NR	8.5 W +6000	#1#25
― On the bubble
13 Clemson ACC	139.7	NR	23	NR	7.5 W +10000	#1#25
14 SMU ACC	149.5	NR	20	NR	8.5 W +12500	#1#25
15 Iowa Big Ten	159.1	NR	22	NR	7.5 W +12000	#1#25
16 LSU SEC	168.8	NR	13	NR	8.5 W +1800	#1#25
17 Tennessee SEC	177.2	NR	18	NR	7.5 W +5000	#1#25
18 USC Big Ten	187.1	NR	14	NR	8.5 W +3500	#1#25
19 BYU Big 12	197.1	NR	15	NR	8.5 W +9000	#1#25
20 Oklahoma SEC	206.9	NR	9	NR	7.5 W +2800	#1#25
21 Washington Big Ten	216.7	NR	19	NR	7.5 W +10000	#1#25
22 Missouri SEC	226.7	NR	25	NR	6.5 W +10000	#1#25
23 Utah Big 12	236.7	NR	21	NR	8.5 W +10000	#1#25
24 South Florida American Athletic	246.5	NR	NR	NR	8.5 W +60000	#1#25
25 Louisville ACC	256.5	NR	NR	NR	8.5 W +12500	#1#25

CFB Zeitgeist — composite model: power rating + schedule strength + cross-division context. AP / Coaches — official human polls; preseason editions release Aug 11. Committee — CFP selection committee rankings begin Oct 28 (week 10). Bettors — consensus win total + CFP futures across major sportsbooks.

Blue = our model rank Gold = Vegas rank (by win total) Orange shading = high human poll rank (1 – 5)

Biggest gap — Vegas above us

North Carolina

+63 spots

Biggest gap — us above Vegas

UTSA

+62 spots

Books sampled

3 – 5

Consensus median · de-vigged title %

Win totals — what Vegas expects

Consensus line across major sportsbooks. The over/under on season wins before a snap is played.

Team

Projected wins

Line

Title %

Ohio State

9.5

14.3%

Notre Dame

11.5

13.3%

Texas

9.5

12.5%

Oregon

10.5

11.1%

Indiana

10.5

11.1%

Georgia

9.5

10.5%

Miami

10.5

8.3%

Texas A&M

8.5

5.3%

LSU

8.5

5.3%

Texas Tech

10.5

4.8%

Alabama

8.5

4.3%

Ole Miss

7.5

3.8%

Oklahoma

7.5

3.4%

Michigan

8.5

2.8%

USC

8.5

2.8%

Tennessee

7.5

2.0%

Penn State

8.5

1.6%

Florida

7.5

1.6%

Auburn

6.5

1.2%

BYU

8.5

1.1%

Utah

8.5

1.0%

Washington

7.5

1.0%

Clemson

7.5

1.0%

Missouri

6.5

1.0%

South Carolina

6.5

1.0%

Source: consensus median across major sportsbooks · de-vigged CFP championship futures

Model rank vs. Vegas rank

Gold dot = where Vegas ranks the team by win total. Blue dot = CFB Zeitgeist rank.

Vegas rank (win total)

CFB Zeitgeist rank

Notre Dame

V#2 · #1

Ohio State

V#1 · #2

Miami

V#7 · #3

Indiana

V#5 · #4

Georgia

V#6 · #5

Oregon

V#4 · #6

Texas Tech

V#10 · #7

Texas

V#3 · #8

#1#6#11#16#21

Source: CFB Zeitgeist model · consensus median across major sportsbooks

Résumé rankings

What each team has earned on the field — wins over ranked opponents, margin in key games, schedule strength. Starts populating after week 1 (Aug 29).

Available Aug 30

Fan heat index — how each fanbase is running right now. Drawn from Reddit discussion volume, sentiment, and tone across the past seven days. Offseason readings: treat direction (▲▼) as more reliable than absolute rank.

Rising this week

Akron

▲6.5

42 pts · Cooked

Arkansas State

▲5.8

50 pts · Uneasy

Villanova

▲5.0

58 pts · Uneasy

Falling this week

North Dakota

▼4.2

56 pts · Uneasy

UC Davis

▼0.9

54 pts · Uneasy

#	Team	Belief score	This week	Zone	vs. Market
1	Puget Sound	100	—	so_back	—
2	Maine	100	—	so_back	—
3	East Texas A&M	94	▲4.8	so_back	—
4	Austin Peay	87	—	so_back	—
5	Wofford	84	—	so_back	—
6	Illinois State	82	—	so_back	—
7	Weber State	81	▲1.6	so_back	—
8	East Carolina	78	—	Cooking	—
9	Houston	75	▲0.3	Cooking	—
10	Florida A&M	75	—	Cooking	—
11	Northern Colorado	75	—	Cooking	—
12	Western Illinois	75	—	Cooking	—
13	Sacred Heart	75	—	Cooking	—
14	Troy	75	—	Cooking	—
15	UL Monroe	73	—	Cooking	—
16	Alabama A&M	73	—	Cooking	—
17	Western Carolina	72	▲1.6	Cooking	—
18	Delaware	72	—	Cooking	—
19	Louisiana	71	—	Cooking	—
20	South Dakota State	70	▲1.1	Cooking	—
21	Tulsa	70	▲1.3	Cooking	—
22	Eastern Washington	70	—	Cooking	—
23	Maryland	70	▼0.4	Cooking	—
24	Western Kentucky	68	—	Cooking	—
25	Utah State	68	—	Cooking	—
26	Towson	68	—	Cooking	—
27	App State	67	—	Cooking	—
28	Sam Houston	67	▲1.6	Cooking	—
29	Missouri State	66	—	Cooking	—
30	UTEP	66	▲0.5	Cooking	—
31	Sacramento State	66	—	Cooking	—
32	New Mexico State	66	—	Cooking	—
33	Central Michigan	66	—	Cooking	—
34	Arizona	65	▲0.2	Cooking	—
35	Colorado State	65	—	Cooking	—
36	Clark Atlanta	65	—	Cooking	—
37	Wyoming	65	—	Cooking	—
38	Louisiana Tech	64	▲1.0	Cooking	—
39	Tulane	63	▲1.2	Cooking	—
40	Eastern Michigan	63	—	Cooking	—
41	Ohio	63	▲0.4	Cooking	—
42	Lehigh	63	—	Cooking	—
43	Wake Forest	62	—	Cooking	—
44	San José State	62	—	Cooking	—
45	Western Michigan	62	—	Cooking	—
46	Kentucky	62	▲0.2	Cooking	—
47	Southern Miss	62	—	Cooking	—
48	Washington	62	▲0.3	Cooking	—
49	South Florida	62	—	Cooking	—
50	Kent State	62	▲3.6	Uneasy	—
51	UCF	61	—	Cooking	—
52	Illinois	61	—	Cooking	—
53	Stanford	61	—	Cooking	—
54	Boston College	61	—	Cooking	—
55	South Alabama	61	—	Cooking	—
56	Purdue	61	▼0.4	Cooking	—
57	Buffalo	61	—	Cooking	—
58	Texas State	61	—	Cooking	—
59	Prairie View A&M	61	—	Cooking	—
60	Miami	61	▲0.2	Cooking	Fans +50
61	Georgia State	60	—	Cooking	—
62	Furman	60	—	Cooking	—
63	Memphis	60	—	Cooking	—
64	Miami (OH)	60	—	Cooking	—
65	Massachusetts	60	—	Cooking	—
66	Northern Illinois	60	—	Cooking	—
67	Tarleton State	60	▲1.1	Uneasy	—
68	Minnesota	60	▲0.7	Uneasy	—
69	Florida Atlantic	60	—	Uneasy	—
70	BYU	60	▲0.1	Uneasy	—
71	Texas Southern	59	—	Uneasy	—
72	Virginia Tech	59	▲0.5	Uneasy	—
73	Cincinnati	59	▲3.8	Uneasy	—
74	Georgia Southern	59	▲2.3	Uneasy	—
75	Temple	58	▲0.5	Uneasy	—
76	Villanova	58	▲5.0	Uneasy	—
77	Hawai'i	58	—	Uneasy	—
78	Mississippi State	58	▼0.2	Uneasy	—
79	Nevada	58	—	Uneasy	—
80	Rice	58	—	Uneasy	—
81	Virginia	57	▼0.3	Uneasy	—
82	Iowa State	57	—	Uneasy	—
83	Louisville	57	▲1.1	Uneasy	—
84	San Diego State	57	—	Uneasy	—
85	Montana State	57	▲1.1	Uneasy	—
86	Baylor	57	▲0.2	Uneasy	—
87	UConn	57	—	Uneasy	—
88	Oregon	57	—	Uneasy	Fans +10
89	North Texas	56	▲0.4	Uneasy	—
90	Ball State	56	—	Uneasy	—
91	Syracuse	56	▼0.2	Uneasy	—
92	Marshall	56	—	Uneasy	—
93	Fresno State	56	—	Uneasy	—
94	Coastal Carolina	56	—	Uneasy	—
95	Old Dominion	56	—	Uneasy	—
96	UCLA	56	▼0.2	Uneasy	—
97	North Dakota	56	▼4.2	Uneasy	—
98	Duke	56	—	Uneasy	—
99	Oregon State	56	▲0.8	Uneasy	—
100	UAB	56	▲0.2	Uneasy	—
101	Arkansas	56	—	Uneasy	—
102	Northwestern	56	▼0.1	Uneasy	—
103	NC State	55	▲0.5	Uneasy	—
104	Kansas	55	▲0.1	Uneasy	—
105	Nebraska	55	▲0.3	Uneasy	—
106	Indiana	55	▲0.1	Uneasy	—
107	Fordham	55	—	Uneasy	—
108	UT Martin	55	—	Uneasy	—
109	Alabama	55	▲0.2	Uneasy	Fans +60
110	Bowling Green	54	—	Uneasy	—
111	Colorado	54	—	Uneasy	—
112	UC Davis	54	▼0.9	Uneasy	—
113	Clemson	54	—	Uneasy	—
114	Utah	54	▲0.1	Uneasy	—
115	Florida	54	▲0.1	Uneasy	—
116	TCU	54	▲0.3	Uneasy	—
117	Iowa	54	▼0.3	Uneasy	—
118	Kennesaw State	54	—	Uneasy	—
119	Charlotte	54	—	Uneasy	—
120	Oklahoma State	54	▲0.1	Uneasy	—
121	Georgia Tech	54	▼0.1	Uneasy	—
122	SMU	54	▲0.3	Uneasy	—
123	Washington State	54	▲0.2	Uneasy	—
124	Texas A&M	54	▲0.1	Uneasy	Fans +40
125	Florida International	54	—	Uneasy	—
126	Rutgers	54	▲0.1	Uneasy	—
127	Missouri	54	▲0.2	Uneasy	—
128	Texas	54	▲0.2	Uneasy	—
129	Florida State	53	▲0.2	Uneasy	—
130	UTSA	53	—	Uneasy	—
131	California	53	▲0.1	Uneasy	—
132	UNLV	53	—	Uneasy	—
133	Wisconsin	53	▲0.2	Uneasy	—
134	Michigan	53	▲0.1	Uneasy	Fans +40
135	North Carolina	53	▲0.5	Uneasy	—
136	Toledo	53	—	Uneasy	—
137	Kansas State	53	▼0.1	Uneasy	—
138	New Mexico	52	—	Uneasy	—
139	Liberty	52	—	Uneasy	—
140	West Virginia	52	—	Uneasy	—
141	Penn State	52	▲0.3	Uneasy	—
142	Montana	52	—	Uneasy	—
143	Michigan State	52	—	Uneasy	—
144	Middle Tennessee	52	—	Uneasy	—
145	Arizona State	52	▲0.3	Uneasy	—
146	Jacksonville State	52	—	Uneasy	—
147	Pittsburgh	52	▲0.2	Uneasy	—
148	Auburn	52	—	Uneasy	—
149	LSU	51	▼0.2	Uneasy	—
150	South Carolina	51	—	Uneasy	—
151	Boise State	51	▲0.4	Uneasy	—
152	Notre Dame	51	▲0.2	Uneasy	Mkt +60
153	Northern Arizona	51	—	Uneasy	—
154	Georgia	50	▲0.1	Uneasy	Mkt +50
155	James Madison	50	—	Uneasy	—
156	USC	50	—	Uneasy	—
157	Tusculum	50	—	Uneasy	—
158	Vanderbilt	50	▼0.5	Uneasy	—
159	Arkansas State	50	▲5.8	Uneasy	—
160	Tennessee	50	▲0.1	Uneasy	—
161	Oklahoma	49	▼0.2	Uneasy	—
162	Ole Miss	49	▲0.1	Uneasy	—
163	Ohio State	49	▲0.2	Uneasy	Mkt +90
164	North Dakota State	49	▼0.1	Uneasy	—
165	Texas Tech	49	▲0.2	Uneasy	—
166	Dayton	46	—	Uneasy	—
167	Navy	45	—	Uneasy	—
168	Army	44	—	Uneasy	—
169	Lafayette	44	—	Uneasy	—
170	Air Force	44	—	Uneasy	—
171	William & Mary	44	—	Uneasy	—
172	North Carolina A&T	43	—	Uneasy	—
173	Southern Illinois	43	—	Uneasy	—
174	Akron	42	▲6.5	Cooked	—
175	Northern Iowa	42	—	Uneasy	—
176	Drake	41	—	Uneasy	—
177	Youngstown State	39	—	Cooked	—
178	West Georgia	37	—	Cooked	—
179	Georgetown	37	—	Cooked	—
180	Abilene Christian	36	—	Cooked	—
181	Nicholls	35	—	Cooked	—
182	South Dakota	32	—	Cooked	—
183	North Alabama	30	—	Cooked	—
184	Mercer	28	—	Cooked	—
185	Chattanooga	26	—	Cooked	—
186	Duquesne	22	▲1.7	Cooked	—
187	West Florida	12	—	Ice cold	—
188	UAlbany	11	—	Ice cold	—
189	VMI	8	—	Ice cold	—
190	Southern Utah	8	—	Ice cold	—
191	Tennessee State	7	—	Ice cold	—
192	Richmond	5	—	Ice cold	—

~ = low-signal (152 of 192 programs — offseason readings are directional, not definitive). vs. Market shows fan belief percentile minus Vegas percentile where available.

College football rankings