3Marshall's fanbase identity is shifting
Tony Gibson begins his tenure at Marshall with a 5-7 losing record to inherit, as the program's identity hinges on its ability to resurrect its storied past.
3Tony Gibson begins his tenure at Marshall with a 5-7 losing record to inherit, as the program's identity hinges on its ability to resurrect its storied past.
Marshall is the program that buried a team in 1970 and built a champion out of the grief — a place where football is a memorial, and where rebuilding from nothing is the oldest thing it knows how to do.
Marshall doesn't need a national villain — the fanbase carries its own standard, set in 1970 and proven every time the program rebuilds from nothing and wins anyway.
Approaching
30 days
until kickoff · at Penn State · Sat Sep 5 · 19:30 UTC
Marshall is the program whose 1970 plane-crash tragedy + 'We Are Marshall' film + Bob Pruett dynasty + Randy Moss / Chad Pennington era + 2024 Sun Belt championship define what football-resurrection looks like.
Marshall enters the 2026 season with a high continuity roster and a net portal importer profile, bolstered by 27 transfers adding 78.66 points of value.
Marco the Bison is patient.
the open questionis the portal class enough to move the needle?
Khalil Wilkins arrives as Tony Gibson's first QB addition in his debut season — a calculated move for a 5-7 team with 100% production returning.
Tony Gibson inherits Charles Huff's 5-7 roster but takes over a program built on football-resurrection with 100% production returning and a Sun Belt title within reach.
Demarcus Lacey is a legitimate money-down target -- his 3rd-down conversion rate ranks among the position's best, and his per-target value holds up in that spot too.
Adrian Norton is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
Antwan Roberts: a garbage time merchant signal screened this season.
De'Andre Tamarez is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
Demarcus Lacey is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
Michael Allen: a closer signal screened this season.
Toby Payne is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
Tony Gibson begins his tenure at Marshall with a 5-7 losing record to overcome, as the program seeks to revive its storied football legacy.
Tony Gibson begins his tenure at Marshall with a 5-7 losing record to inherit, as the program's identity hinges on its ability to resurrect its storied past.
Tony Gibson begins his tenure with a 5-7 losing record to overcome, but the program's legacy of resilience offers a foundation for rebuilding.
Gibson's fifth straight top-25 portal class targets CB, DL and LB — a calculated reload for a 5-7 team with Wilkins at QB and no roster holes.
LB Andrew Hamad transfer commits from Albany
Al-Amin is gone, the room lost two and added one — Hamad is the FCS-to-Sun Belt answer to a depth gap Gibson hasn't closed yet, and Albany tape on a 70-velocity spike says the market noticed before the press release.
RB Josiah McLaurin transfer commits from Maryland
Big Ten running back to the Sun Belt — McLaurin's carries vanished in College Park, gets a feature look here.
Will Butler commits to Marshall
Gibson's LB room needed depth with real upside — Butler's Green Hill tape shows a prospect who can push for reps in a Sun Belt class ranked 121st and hungry for any competitive piece.
Top 3 commits
Fan confidence in a typical range for this program right now
38th percentile among FBS programs
Market outlook
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-08-06
Marshall · Next-Season Outcome Band
Final-season-aware projection: floor / base / ceiling include conference title and CFP games where the model supports them, so a ceiling can exceed a 12-game regular season.
Marshall signed a top-36 transfer-portal class — 52 additions headlined by Carlos Del Rio-Wilson (QB) from Syracuse and Zion Turner (QB) from Jacksonville State. It is tied for the largest transfer-portal haul in FBS this cycle (52 additions). Portal pickups don't redshirt. The coverage sees this as a targeted, ready-to-contribute class built for snap competition, not depth-chart filler. The coverage reads this as a credible, targeted haul.
The 'portal class fills the gaps' believers -- upgrades at real positions of need.
The 'portal is a gamble' counter -- departure losses and the 'plug-and-play doesn't work' read.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
Only 3 of 112 board posts mention it — below our floor to call a community stance. Shown as texture, not a verdict.
The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.
Tony Gibson took over as Marshall's head coach, replacing Charles Huff. It is replaces 4-year head coach Charles Huff (31-18). The coverage has largely bought in. The field test is what separates the presser from the program. The coverage has largely bought in, though the field test is still ahead.
The 'this hire changes everything' takes -- new-era believers making the case early.
The 'show me the body of work' counter -- resume gaps, scheme fits, and 'not that guy' reads.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
The second-order trail: commits, decommits, portal and staff knock-on from the hire.
Recent Form · last 10 games
One of five. The film room is busy this week.
Opens Sep 5
vs Penn State · away
✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
OH leads the 2026 class with 6 commits. National footprint reaching 10 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
75 signees across 20 states, 2023-2026. OH leads the pull.
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
The bounces haven't gone their way on their own fumbles: 25% recovered, vs. ~51% expected.
3 of 12 own fumbles recovered themselves; 8 of 12 forced fumbles recovered, 2025 only.
Cashing in more than most: 27% of disrupted passes intercepted, vs. ~19% league-wide.
13 interceptions of 49 disrupted passes (36 deflected, 13 intercepted), 2025 only.
The flags haven't favored them: 82 penalties committed vs. 64 drawn on opponents, 169 yards behind.
719 penalty yards committed vs. 550 drawn on opponents, 2025 season total.
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Fanbase Signals
Position = mood · width = volume · color = the kind of feeling
What little we hear
Only 4 cohort(s) cleared the signal floor this week, so we won’t stage a split we can’t back. Here’s the honest read:
How Marshall fans actually talk real · top-upvoted
The crowd’s loudest take by upvotes — read for mood, not as a side. The cohort read is the measured part.
What this fanbase keeps coming back to our read · topic model
Topics are model-labeled from Reddit — a rough signal of what this fanbase is circling right now.
~ our readMarshall fans are down on the program, and they're pointing to real stats and results to back it up — more than most fanbases right now.
✓ counted We read 94 posts from Marshall fans this week.
“Marshall always plays their best game and gets a little fuckery to go our way on 75 week. Beating us by 2 scores (even if it was a closer game than that) proves JMU is legit”— r/CFB
“I was gonna be happy for bowl eligibility, but by god the conference is still on the table!”— r/CFB
“Watching cam fancher at Marshall made me want to cry. I have absolutely no idea how that man landed at FAU and then UCF. Completely baffling he keeps getting a shot.”— r/CFB
“Maybe so. As someone who HAS hit rock bottom as a fan today, it is surprisingly liberating. Now I don't have to worry about college football this year and I can focus on my career. We are basically starting from nothing this year thanks to the transfer portal rules and our f…”— r/CFB
Five Lenses
What people are saying right now
Fanbase Health Index · Marshall · high confidence
FBS rankings · 2025 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scrambler · +0.25 EPA/play | 7 | 11 | 171 / 256 | 66.8 | 2043 | 8.0 | 17 #57 FBS | 5 | 151.8 | 55.9 | 7.9 | 4.1 | |
Yards by week → ScramblerMakes plays with feet when the pocket collapses. Efficiency still on the rise. Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. 45 of 183 QBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Rush usage38.3% 93th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Rush yards / carry4.1 81th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like our readUnranked recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile | |||||||||||||
| +0.04 EPA/play | 1 | 5 | 40 / 59 | 67.8 | 409 | 6.9 | 1 | 1 | 128.2 | 51.5 | 6.3 | 1.7 | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||||
| -0.14 EPA/play | 6 | 5 | 6 / 18 | 33.3 | 31 | 1.7 | 0 | 0 | 47.8 | 6.9 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Stuff% | 10+% | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Back · -0.05 EPA/play | 44 | 11 | 90 | 512 | 5.7 | 4 | 54 | 10.5 | 7.0 | 19.8 | 16.8 | — | |
Yards by week → Balanced BackPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 186 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / carry5.8 66th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Receiving share7.2% bottom 25th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Antwan Roberts's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Balanced Back · +0.06 EPA/play | 2 | 8 | 77 | 385 | 5 | 4 | 68 | 9.8 | 8.1 | 19.4 | 11.1 | — | |
Yards by week → Balanced Back· Boom-or-bustPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 186 of 349 classified this way. Played in 8 of 21 games this season · junior View Michael Allen's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Balanced Back · -0.05 EPA/play | 5 | 9 | 56 | 249 | 4.4 | 5 | 28 | 0 | 6.1 | 18.6 | 11.9 | — | |
Yards by week → Balanced BackPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 186 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / carry4.6 bottom 25th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Rush TD rate8.9% 96th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Joshon Barbie's full player page | |||||||||||||
| +0.34 EPA/play | 9 | 9 | 35 | 197 | 5.6 | 2 | 37 | 3 | 2.1 | — | — | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slot Technician · +0.69 EPA/play | 4 | 12 | 65 | 769 #75 FBS | 11.8 | 5 | 68 | 10.6 | 12.6 | 26.2% (66/252) | |
Yards by week → Slot Technician· Boom-or-bustRuns precise routes in tight quarters. Volume player who keeps chains moving. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The rare part: the passing game runs through him — and every touch moves the offense, too 97 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Reception volume65 95th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Total EPA (college ability)62.4 99th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions — the part the label misses Trait fingerprint Plays like our readBreakout: his CFB Index score now sits at the 91st percentile among FBS WRs, up from the 0th | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.72 EPA/play | — | 11 | 32 | 395 | 12.3 | 2 | 44 | 5.9 | 9.1 | 17.5% (44/252) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. The most common profile in its group this season — 332 of 558 classified this way. Played in 11 of 21 games this season · junior View De'Andre Tamarez's full player page | |||||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.54 EPA/play | 81 | 11 | 36 | 387 | 10.8 | 3 | 48 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 14.7% (37/252) | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. The most common profile in its group this season — 177 of 223 classified this way. Played in 11 of 21 games this season · junior · 3-star, 2022 class our readTwo-star recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile our readAscending: his CFB Index score now sits at the 82nd percentile among FBS TEs, up from the 56th | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.96 EPA/play | 13 | 8 | 28 | 383 | 13.7 | 5 | 41 | 11.3 | 10.7 | 12.3% (31/252) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception12.8 bottom 43th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)1.0 97th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like our readFading: his CFB Index score now sits at the 52nd percentile among FBS WRs, up from the 84th | |||||||||||
| -0.49 EPA/play | 18 | 12 | 8 | 109 | 13.6 | 0 | 44 | 1.3 | 3.8 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
| +0.06 EPA/play | 10 | 10 | 9 | 56 | 6.2 | 0 | 17 | 3.1 | 3.9 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Two-Gap Base | 55 | 11 | 37 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 3 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 388 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate16.2% 56th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Paul Hutson III's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 99 | 9 | 29 | 8 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 1 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 388 of 809 classified this way. Played in 9 of 21 games this season · junior View Jamaal Whyce's full player page | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 70 | 10 | 26 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
Nose AnchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 152 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight320 lb 90th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Naquan Crowder's full player page | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 21 | 9 | 19 | 5 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0 |
Nose AnchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. 152 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight330 lb 95th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Tyas Martin's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 58 | 7 | 18 | 7 | 6 | 4.5 | 4 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate33.3% 98th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Braydin Ward's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 56 | 6 | 17 | 5 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. The most common profile in its group this season — 388 of 809 classified this way. Played in 6 of 21 games this season · sophomore View Sid Kaba's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 6 | 6 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. The most common profile in its group this season — 388 of 809 classified this way. Played in 6 of 21 games this season · senior View Jalil Rivera-Harvey's full player page | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 5 | 7 | 11 | 4 | 1.5 | 0 | 2 |
Nose AnchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. 152 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight335 lb 97th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Katron Evans's full player page | |||||||
| 52 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Linebacker | 22 | 11 | 67 | 23 | 44 | 5.5 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 362 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume67 72th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles PD rate1.5% bottom 35th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Kerion Martin's full player page | |||||||||
| Thumper | 9 | 11 | 56 | 18 | 38 | 9.5 | 1.5 | 2 | 0 |
ThumperDownhill striker who fills the run lane and blitzes off the edge. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 97 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate17.0% 86th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles PD rate3.6% 63th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Javae Gilmore's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 8 | 10 | 51 | 22 | 29 | 5.5 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 362 of 660 classified this way. Played in 10 of 21 games this season · junior our readBreakout: his CFB Index score now sits at the 70th percentile among FBS LBs, up from the 7th | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 7 | 7 | 42 | 18 | 24 | 3.5 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. The most common profile in its group this season — 362 of 660 classified this way. Played in 7 of 21 games this season · senior View Jayland Parker's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 27 | 6 | 25 | 9 | 16 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 362 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume25 bottom 18th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate2.0% bottom 15th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Cannon Lewis's full player page | |||||||||
| 10 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 16 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rover | 1 | 12 | 73 | 5 | 5 #6 FBS | 2.5 | 0.5 |
Rover· Takeaway threatHits like a linebacker and still takes the ball away. the kind of DB who takes it back the other way All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 83 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate6.8% bottom 44th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Boogie Trotter's full player page | |||||||
| Rover | — | 11 | 66 | 8 #45 FBS | 0 | 5 | 2 |
RoverHits like a linebacker and still takes the ball away. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 83 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate12.1% 71th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Cameron Smith's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 17 | 12 | 50 | 4 | 3 #56 FBS | 1.5 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 419 of 801 classified this way. Played in 12 of 21 games this season · senior · 3-star, 2019 class our readBreakout: his CFB Index score now sits at the 77th percentile among FBS Ss, up from the 0th | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 2 | 12 | 37 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 419 of 801 classified this way. Played in 12 of 21 games this season · sophomore View Darrell Sweeting's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 11 | 10 | 33 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 419 of 801 classified this way. Played in 10 of 21 games this season · senior View Joshua Pierre-Louis's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 3 | 9 | 30 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 419 of 801 classified this way. Played in 9 of 21 games this season · senior View Marvae Myers-Glover's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 26 | 9 | 26 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 419 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate11.5% 68th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Caleb Clark-Glover's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 4 | 10 | 23 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 419 of 801 classified this way. Played in 10 of 21 games this season · senior View Jadarius Green-McKnight's full player page | |||||||
| Cover Corner | 20 | 6 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 1.5 | 0 |
Cover CornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. The most common profile in its group this season — 141 of 270 classified this way. Played in 6 of 21 games this season · sophomore View Tashawn Jeter's full player page | |||||||
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Big Leg | 90 | 12 | 21/26 | 80.8 | 38/39 | 101 | 55 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -0.49 EPA/play | 18 | 12 | 23 | 510 | 22.2 | 0 | 36 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slot Technician · +0.69 EPA/play | 4 | 12 | 18 | 218 | 12.1 | 0 | 43 |
2025 stat leaders
finalRoster
2025+17 more
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 30 | #71 | #6 | +38.5 | @Georgia | L 7–45 128 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 6 | #37 | #119 | -7.5 | Missouri State | L 20–21 127 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 13 | #77 | #155 | -15 | Eastern Kentucky | W 38–7 123 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 4 | Sep 20 | #86 | #148 | -2.5 | @Middle Tennessee | W 42–28 117 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| 5 | Sep 28 | #90 | #74 | -1.5 | @Louisiana | L 51–54 153 | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| 7 | Oct 11 | #84 | #32 | +14.5 | Old Dominion | W 48–24 140 | 3-3 | 1-1 |
| 8 | Oct 18 | #71 | #72 | +2.5 | Texas State | W 40–37 164 | 4-3 | 1-1 |
| 10 | Oct 30 | #82 | #135 | -7 | @Coastal Carolina | L 27–44 147 | 4-4 | 1-2 |
| 11 | Nov 8 | #84 | #24 | +13.5 | James Madison | L 23–35 145 | 4-5 | 1-3 |
| 12 | Nov 15 | #88 | #190 | -9.5 | @Georgia State | W 30–18 137 | 5-5 | 2-3 |
| 13 | Nov 22 | #73 | #158 | -3.5 | @App State | L 24–26 140 | 5-6 | 2-4 |
| 14 | Nov 29 | #78 | #145 | -10.5 | Georgia Southern | L 19–24 138 | 5-7 | 2-5 |
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 29 | Georgia Southern | L 19–24 | 372 | 1 | 18:22 | +0.156 | 48.1% | 119.0% | One-score loss |
| Nov 22 | @App State | L 24–26 | 438 | 3 | 30:09 | +0.203 | 50.7% | 87.8% | One-score loss |
| Nov 15 | @Georgia State | W 30–18 | 489 | 0 | 27:27 | +0.423 | 50.0% | 126.6% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Nov 8 | James Madison | L 23–35 | 414 | 0 | 31:57 | +0.040 | 44.3% | 105.6% | |
| Oct 30 | @Coastal Carolina | L 27–44 | 432 | 5 | 31:33 | +0.183 | 40.2% | 144.8% | Most explosive |
| Oct 18 | Texas State | W 40–37 | 466 | 1 | 32:43 | +0.029 | 45.5% | 97.7% | One-score win |
| Oct 11 | Old Dominion | W 48–24 | 449 | 0 | 36:35 | +0.074 | 34.6% | 136.9% | |
| Sep 28 | @Louisiana | L 51–54 | 503 | 1 | 30:28 | +0.416 | 52.9% | 124.4% | One-score loss |
| Sep 20 | @Middle Tennessee | W 42–28 | 452 | 1 | 36:47 | +0.303 | 54.3% | 107.1% | Best success rate |
| Sep 13 | Eastern Kentucky | W 38–7 | 377 | 2 | 34:04 | +0.091 | 44.3% | 90.8% | Best defensive stand |
| Sep 6 | Missouri State | L 20–21 | 274 | 1 | 25:26 | +0.116 | 30.9% | 130.4% | One-score loss |
| Aug 30 | @Georgia | L 7–45 | 207 | 0 | 25:31 | +0.001 | 25.5% | 117.3% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Season average (12 games) | 406 | 1.2 | +0.170 | 43.4% | 115.7% | ||||
Marshall fields a capable run-heavy, methodical, ball-control offense behind a solid, gives up the big play defense.
Opponent-adjusted percentiles vs all FBS. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Team identity · competitive snaps only
55th percentile quality, 39th percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 86th | 11th |
| Akron | 12th | 89th |
| Alabama | 58th | 17th |
| App State | 35th | 47th |
| Arizona | 64th | 37th |
| Arizona State | 41st | 62nd |
| Arkansas | 90th | 12th |
| Arkansas State | 17th | 66th |
| Army | 57th | 43rd |
| Auburn | 47th | 53rd |
| BYU | 78th | 19th |
| Baylor | 69th | 25th |
| Boise State | 66th | 20th |
| Boston College | 37th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 2nd | 98th |
| Buffalo | 11th | 88th |
| California | 28th | 48th |
| Central Michigan | 52nd | 64th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 16th |
| Clemson | 51st | 48th |
| Coastal Carolina | 17th | 83rd |
| Colorado | 18th | 84th |
| Colorado State | 16th | 83rd |
| Delaware | 38th | 58th |
| Duke | 80th | 14th |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 36th |
| Eastern Michigan | 49th | 42nd |
| Florida | 30th | 67th |
| Florida Atlantic | 62nd | 59th |
| Florida International | 42nd | 50th |
| Florida State | 83rd | 32nd |
| Fresno State | 26th | 73rd |
| Georgia | 81st | 3rd |
| Georgia Southern | 73rd | 21st |
| Georgia State | 36th | 70th |
| Georgia Tech | 84th | 5th |
| Hawai'i | 64th | 41st |
| Houston | 27th | 65th |
| Illinois | 75th | 26th |
| Indiana | 95th | 1st |
| Iowa | 44th | 40th |
| Iowa State | 68th | 22nd |
| Jacksonville State | 54th | 38th |
| James Madison | 65th | 44th |
| Kansas | 85th | 28th |
| Kansas State | 71st | 49th |
| Kennesaw State | 56th | 30th |
| Kent State | 21st | 86th |
| Kentucky | 15th | 85th |
| LSU | 14th | 81st |
| Liberty | 43rd | 56th |
| Louisiana | 19th | 73rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 39th | 61st |
| Louisville | 48th | 64th |
| Marshall | 55th | 39th |
| Maryland | 30th | 74th |
| Memphis | 80th | 24th |
| Miami | 76th | 5th |
| Miami (OH) | 34th | 67th |
| Michigan | 67th | 33rd |
| Michigan State | 27th | 75th |
| Middle Tennessee | 39th | 52nd |
| Minnesota | 29th | 77th |
| Mississippi State | 22nd | 77th |
| Missouri | 61st | 30th |
| Missouri State | 55th | 46th |
| NC State | 86th | 23rd |
| Navy | 94th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 48th | 57th |
| Nevada | 3rd | 97th |
| New Mexico | 58th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 9th | 87th |
| North Carolina | 13th | 89th |
| North Texas | 98th | 7th |
| Northern Illinois | 8th | 92nd |
| Northwestern | 52nd | 36th |
| Notre Dame | 99th | 20th |
| Ohio | 67th | 18th |
| Ohio State | 93rd | 4th |
| Oklahoma | 20th | 80th |
| Oklahoma State | 5th | 95th |
| Old Dominion | 83rd | 45th |
| Ole Miss | 89th | 2nd |
| Oregon | 91st | 10th |
| Oregon State | 2nd | 98th |
| Penn State | 73rd | 33rd |
| Pittsburgh | 60th | 39th |
| Purdue | 25th | 78th |
| Rice | 6th | 94th |
| Rutgers | 70th | 27th |
| SMU | 74th | 42nd |
| Sam Houston | 4th | 96th |
| San Diego State | 24th | 76th |
| San José State | 45th | 69th |
| South Alabama | 36th | 58th |
| South Carolina | 23rd | 86th |
| South Florida | 87th | 23rd |
| Southern Miss | 40th | 55th |
| Stanford | 10th | 90th |
| Syracuse | 5th | 95th |
| TCU | 72nd | 35th |
| Temple | 70th | 34th |
| Tennessee | 96th | 11th |
| Texas | 45th | 55th |
| Texas A&M | 82nd | 14th |
| Texas State | 92nd | 8th |
| Texas Tech | 77th | 31st |
| Toledo | 50th | 61st |
| Troy | 14th | 80th |
| Tulane | 79th | 15th |
| Tulsa | 20th | 70th |
| UAB | 61st | 45th |
| UCF | 33rd | 82nd |
| UCLA | 23rd | 79th |
| UConn | 95th | 13th |
| UL Monroe | 11th | 92nd |
| UNLV | 88th | 9th |
| USC | 98th | 2nd |
| UTEP | 1st | 99th |
| UTSA | 77th | 51st |
| Utah | 97th | 6th |
| Utah State | 46th | 63rd |
| Vanderbilt | 100th | 0th |
| Virginia | 59th | 27th |
| Virginia Tech | 32nd | 71st |
| Wake Forest | 42nd | 72nd |
| Washington | 92nd | 8th |
| Washington State | 33rd | 52nd |
| West Virginia | 7th | 93rd |
| Western Kentucky | 53rd | 29th |
| Western Michigan | 31st | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 0th | 100th |
| Wyoming | 8th | 91st |
Fourth-quarter reliability, corrected
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 53rd percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it climbs to the 74th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
71st percentile success on standard downs, 62nd on passing downs — little dropoff between the two — a schedule-independent identity.
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 82nd | 69th |
| Akron | 20th | 36th |
| Alabama | 47th | 76th |
| App State | 41st | 80th |
| Arizona | 54th | 54th |
| Arizona State | 40th | 37th |
| Arkansas | 90th | 97th |
| Arkansas State | 51st | 40th |
| Army | 37th | 44th |
| Auburn | 73rd | 24th |
| Austin Peay | 56th | 13th |
| BYU | 91st | 46th |
| Ball State | 5th | 3rd |
| Baylor | 70th | 77th |
| Boise State | 42nd | 63rd |
| Boston College | 56th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 10th | 17th |
| Bryant | 7th | 2nd |
| Buffalo | 29th | 20th |
| California | 25th | 66th |
| Central Michigan | 57th | 11th |
| Charlotte | 7th | 7th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 65th |
| Clemson | 49th | 34th |
| Coastal Carolina | 16th | 22nd |
| Colorado | 8th | 48th |
| Colorado State | 29th | 35th |
| Delaware | 66th | 31st |
| Duke | 82nd | 63rd |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 91st |
| Eastern Michigan | 46th | 67th |
| Florida | 52nd | 45th |
| Florida Atlantic | 44th | 61st |
| Florida International | 50th | 26th |
| Florida State | 65th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 22nd | 71st |
| Georgia | 95th | 69th |
| Georgia Southern | 64th | 84th |
| Georgia State | 22nd | 75th |
| Georgia Tech | 92nd | 89th |
| Hawai'i | 33rd | 87th |
| Houston | 61st | 29th |
| Idaho | 30th | 78th |
| Idaho State | 93rd | 14th |
| Illinois | 79th | 95th |
| Indiana | 97th | 98th |
| Iowa | 74th | 19th |
| Iowa State | 80th | 58th |
| Jacksonville State | 59th | 56th |
| James Madison | 77th | 52nd |
| Kansas | 99th | 82nd |
| Kansas State | 37th | 59th |
| Kennesaw State | 44th | 67th |
| Kent State | 15th | 5th |
| Kentucky | 62nd | 29th |
| LSU | 18th | 52nd |
| Lafayette | 0th | 12th |
| Liberty | 65th | 53rd |
| Lindenwood | 4th | 1st |
| Long Island University | 24th | 78th |
| Louisiana | 24th | 23rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 41st | 24th |
| Louisville | 84th | 32nd |
| Maine | 3rd | 18th |
| Marshall | 71st | 62nd |
| Maryland | 11th | 86th |
| Massachusetts | 5th | 9th |
| Memphis | 75th | 68th |
| Merrimack | 1st | 83rd |
| Miami | 80th | 64th |
| Miami (OH) | 33rd | 39th |
| Michigan | 73rd | 74th |
| Michigan State | 48th | 39th |
| Middle Tennessee | 69th | 47th |
| Minnesota | 35th | 33rd |
| Mississippi State | 52nd | 35th |
| Missouri | 76th | 50th |
| Missouri State | 32nd | 50th |
| Murray State | 1st | 6th |
| NC State | 58th | 71st |
| Navy | 95th | 72nd |
| Nebraska | 78th | 51st |
| Nevada | 17th | 16th |
| New Mexico | 38th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 16th | 33rd |
| North Carolina | 14th | 30th |
| North Texas | 100th | 97th |
| Northern Illinois | 9th | 5th |
| Northwestern | 48th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 88th | 99th |
| Ohio | 69th | 76th |
| Ohio State | 99th | 99th |
| Oklahoma | 39th | 41st |
| Oklahoma State | 14th | 7th |
| Old Dominion | 72nd | 79th |
| Ole Miss | 83rd | 95th |
| Oregon | 93rd | 55th |
| Oregon State | 54th | 25th |
| Penn State | 76th | 73rd |
| Pittsburgh | 35th | 56th |
| Purdue | 46th | 88th |
| Rice | 20th | 0th |
| Rutgers | 71st | 84th |
| SMU | 50th | 57th |
| Sam Houston | 26th | 4th |
| San Diego State | 84th | 1st |
| San José State | 68th | 70th |
| South Alabama | 53rd | 28th |
| South Carolina | 31st | 8th |
| South Carolina State | 10th | 3rd |
| South Florida | 86th | 46th |
| Southern Miss | 27th | 38th |
| Stanford | 12th | 12th |
| Syracuse | 19th | 10th |
| TCU | 63rd | 82nd |
| Temple | 85th | 22nd |
| Tennessee | 97th | 81st |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 88th | 59th |
| Texas State | 60th | 93rd |
| Texas Tech | 45th | 65th |
| Toledo | 67th | 42nd |
| Troy | 18th | 27th |
| Tulane | 81st | 86th |
| Tulsa | 43rd | 43rd |
| UAB | 34th | 94th |
| UCF | 39th | 20th |
| UCLA | 28th | 48th |
| UConn | 96th | 37th |
| UL Monroe | 13th | 14th |
| UNLV | 78th | 85th |
| USC | 94th | 90th |
| UT Martin | 2nd | 41st |
| UTEP | 3rd | 10th |
| UTSA | 67th | 92nd |
| Utah | 87th | 96th |
| Utah State | 31st | 49th |
| Vanderbilt | 90th | 100th |
| Virginia | 36th | 73rd |
| Virginia Tech | 59th | 21st |
| Wake Forest | 21st | 31st |
| Washington | 98th | 93rd |
| Washington State | 61st | 44th |
| West Virginia | 12th | 18th |
| Western Kentucky | 55th | 80th |
| Western Michigan | 86th | 16th |
| Wisconsin | 6th | 27th |
| Wyoming | 23rd | 15th |
Halftime identity
1st-half offense ranks 43rd percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 71st — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
Schedule mirage
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.17; 68th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.05. The widest gap came in week 6: 0.19 raw vs. 0.06 adjusted.
Marshall reads strongest in passing epa (top 21%) and rushing epa allowed (top 26%); the crux lives in explosive plays allowed, where Marshall sits at the 4th percentile.
offense · strengths lead
defense · higher bar = harder to play against
hidden math · special situations
Most Similar Programs · Marshall
Static-attribute similarity across tier, archetype, conference, and voice. Not a prediction — a calibration.
Home-Field Advantage · Marshall · 2018-present
72% home win rate vs 53% on the road. margin runs +7.5 better at home. Joan C. Edwards Stadium seats 38,016, averaging 61% full (23,339 attendance, 24 games reported).
Positional competition · RB room
Antwan Roberts and Michael Allen split the carries (103/176 vs 73/176) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Michael Allen produces in bigger chunks.
Positional competition · WR/TE room
Demarcus Lacey (WR) and Toby Payne (TE) split the targets (66/101 vs 35/101) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
What changed
The biggest shift: red-zone pass rate moved down 10 points. The rest held closer to steady.
The biggest shift: 1st-down pass rate moved down 9 points. The rest held closer to steady.
Defensive identity · pass zones
On short passes, Marshall’s defense allows a completion rate above the FBS mean (66.4% vs 65.9% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 115-play sample) — mid-pack, 77 of 133 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball leaderboard here: at the defense level, most teams face well under 30 rich-feed deep targets all season — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess.
63°F average kickoff temp; 13% of games had measurable precipitation; 6 mph average wind.
Based on 76 home games with weather data.
12 seasons inside the CFP era, no bids yet — the era the program is still trying to break into.
Marshall's 2014–2025 record is 95-55. The era is still being written; the CFP line is the one the program is arguing for.
All-Time Record
since 1913 · 82 seasons · .459 win rate
Charles Huff won the 2024 Sun Belt title, then left for Southern Miss and took roughly 50 players with him. Tony Gibson inherited a stripped roster and went 5-7. Rebuilding from almost nothing is the oldest thing Huntington knows how to do.
On November 14, 1970, a plane crash killed 75 people — the entire Marshall football team, its coaches, and boosters returning from a road game. The program rebuilt from scratch over five years, climbed back to Division I-A, and eventually became, under Bob Pruett from 1996 to 2004, one of the most consistent mid-major programs in the country: six MAC championships, Randy Moss and Chad Pennington in the same backfield, a period when Huntington produced winners the way it wasn't supposed to be able to. 'We Are Marshall' took that story into the wider culture. What the story didn't take with it is that the program has had to rebuild multiple times since — and has, every time.
The most recent version arrived fast. Huff won the 2024 Sun Belt title and left for Southern Miss within days of the championship. Roughly half the roster followed him into the portal or transferred elsewhere; Marshall withdrew from its bowl. Tony Gibson, hired from NC State, spent 2025 with a skeleton crew and finished 5-7. It was the kind of season that, at most programs, produces urgency about the program's direction. At Marshall, it produces a specific familiarity: the Herd has rebuilt from circumstances worse than this.
The 2026 season will tell Gibson which pieces of that 2025 roster survived and whether the portal class he built in the offseason can accelerate a turnaround or just stop the bleeding. Marshall doesn't need a national villain to find motivation — the standard was set in 1970 and proven every time the program rebuilds from nothing and wins anyway. The question for 2026 is how quickly the rebuilding part ends.
Tough, opportunistic Sun Belt football — Marshall's identity runs less through a single scheme than through the program's capacity to build and rebuild competitive rosters in Huntington. Gibson brings a defensive background and a developmental philosophy. The Herd has historically relied on physical line play and the kind of disciplined execution that outperforms recruiting rankings. The 2026 roster's depth chart is the live variable entering fall camp.
Marshall 2016–2025. Holding the line. The 10-year slope (-0.01 rungs / yr) doesn't tilt either way — the program lives at roughly Tier 3.
12 seasons on file
down middle peak CFP year
Season Standing · 2025 · 5-7
Marshall: Below .500 in FBS play. The rebuild bar.
Sun Belt Standing · 2025
Marshall is 11th of 14 in the Sun Belt at 2-5. The path to the title is steep — the focus is on bowl access and rivalry wins.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Madison | 8-0 |
| 2 | Old Dominion | 6-2 |
| 3 | Southern Miss | 5-3 |
| 4 | Troy | 5-3 |
| 5 | Coastal Carolina | 5-4 |
| 6 | Georgia Southern | 5-4 |
| 7 | Arkansas State | 4-3 |
| 8 | Louisiana | 4-3 |
| 9 | South Alabama | 3-4 |
| 10 | Louisiana Tech | 2-0 |
| 11 | Marshall | 2-5 |
| 12 | App State | 2-7 |
| 13 | UL Monroe | 1-6 |
| 14 | Georgia State | 0-8 |
Coaching Era · Marshall
Tony Gibson in year 2 of the rebuild. The methodology is taking shape.
Three gameday rituals — the ones outsiders never quite catch.
since 1970
Marshall's team plane crashed on November 14, 1970, killing all 75 aboard — 37 players, 8 coaches, 25 boosters, and 5 crew. The single-largest sports-team disaster in U.S. history. The rebuild over the next 5 years + the 'We Are Marshall' (2006) film + the annual memorial service make the tragedy permanent program identity. Every game starts with the moment of silence.
since 1996
Bob Pruett's tenure produced six MAC championships, multiple top-25 finishes, and developed Randy Moss + Chad Pennington as NFL stars. The 1999-2000 back-to-back seasons (with Pennington at QB) produced #11 and #8 final AP ranks. The dynasty era is the program's modern peak.
since 1996
Randy Moss (1996-1997, 1997 Heisman finalist) + Chad Pennington (1995-1999, first-round NFL draft 2000) — two of CFB's most-iconic late-1990s players both at Marshall. The Moss-Pennington connection produced multiple NCAA records + a national-buzz spotlight that no MAC program had achieved before.
Program memory
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
1970
The crash that killed 75, including the entire team — the founding wound the program is built around
Wound
Marshall wins the league under Charles Huff before the coach's abrupt departure
Moment of the Year · Marshall · 2025
Week 1 of 2025. A reckoning loss — the data point the next season must answer.
Bowl / Postseason Ledger
Most recent: 2023 — loss 17-35 (home). Last 5 postseason: 1-4.
NFL Draft Pipeline
2022–20254 picks last 5 cycles. Pipeline emerging.
Unit lineage
FBS-relative efficiency percentile per season (2014–2025), same population as the Coordinator Mirror board. Dashed vertical lines mark a coordinator change.
Hired for 2026: Brad Lambert — not yet reflected in on-field data.
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