Sun Belt · Dell McGee, year 3 (6-21) · Center Parc Stadium · 25,000 · 16,703 avg in 2026
LastL 30–44 at UCF · Sat Sep 19 · Qwantavius Wiggins 125 rush yds, 1 TD, 23 rec yds
Nextvs Northern Illinois · Sat Sep 26 · 2 pm ET · Center Parc Stadium · Georgia State by 10 · Game preview
Updated Tue Sep 22 · through week 3
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 4 | #155 | #263 | -28.5✓ | North Carolina A&T | W 59–10 71 | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #154 | #153 | +7.5✓ | @Kennesaw State | W 31–17 126 | 2-0 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #139 | #94 | +17.5✓ | @UCF | L 30–44 141 | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #127 | #108 | -10 | Northern Illinois | |||
| 5 | Oct 3 | #124 | #71 | Old Dominion | ||||
| 7 | Oct 17 | @James Madison | ||||||
| 8 | Oct 24 | @Arkansas State | ||||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | Coastal Carolina | ||||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | @App State | ||||||
| 11 | Nov 14 | Georgia Southern | ||||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @Marshall | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | Louisiana |
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19 | @UCF | L 30–44 | 485 | 3 | 33:20 | +0.049 | 40.2% | 147.9% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 12 | @Kennesaw State | W 31–17 | 483 | 2 | 37:47 | +0.257 | 50.0% | 114.8% | |
| Sep 4 | North Carolina A&T | W 59–10 | 563 | 0 | 32:46 | +0.507 | 59.2% | 111.7% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Season average (3 games) | 510 | 1.7 | +0.271 | 49.8% | 124.8% | ||||
Georgia State plays its home games inside the stadium where the Braves won pennants, a 2010 startup still trying to convince its own enormous city that a downtown-Atlanta college team is worth a Saturday.
Everyone in the metro grew up a Georgia or Georgia Tech fan; Panther fans are the ones who chose the new thing, and they're tired of being told a 2010 startup downtown can't be anybody's real team.
The season in chapters
What fans said
Real posts from the day of the game, chosen by community score · usernames not shown
What it is like to watch them2025 · 1-11 · last season
✓ measured from 12 games · ranks are among Sun Belt teams the same season
Recent form · last 10 games · incl. 2025
Cooling. 2-8 over the last 10, and lost the last one.
Next Sep 26
vs Northern Illinois · at home
✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style
Market outlook
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-09-22
the open questionis the portal class enough to move the needle?
McGee's top-14 portal class jumps 33 spots nationally after a 1-11 season, diagnosing offensive line as the core problem with Smith Jr. and Mascoll arriving to fix it.
our readbackground
Dell McGee's third season opens with a 1-11 losing record and a 1.0 win total drop, raising questions about whether the program's identity as Atlanta-FBS-newcomer-football can sustain momentum.
our readdeveloping
Jordan Simmons: a garbage time merchant signal screened this season.
our readbackground
Ted Hurst is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
our readbackground
Georgia State, under Dell McGee's third season, seeks to revive its 2010 founding identity after a 1-11 losing record that contrasts sharply with its historic Atlanta-FBS-newcomer-football legacy.
our readbackground
Georgia State enters 2025 at No. 133 in SP+ — the 10-spot drop under McGee raises one question: Can talent rank #77 offset the losing record's momentum?
our readbackground
Outcome band · Georgia State · 2026
Floor, base and ceiling come from the season-path projection, which plays out conference title games and the CFP — so a ceiling can run past 12 games.
Georgia State signed a top-47 transfer-portal class — 33 additions headlined by Ayden Pereira (QB) from Merrimack and Darius Johnson Jr. (CB) from Gardner-Webb. Portal pickups don't redshirt. The coverage sees this as a targeted, ready-to-contribute class built for snap competition, not depth-chart filler. The coverage reads this as a credible, targeted haul.
The 'portal class fills the gaps' believers -- upgrades at real positions of need.
The 'portal is a gamble' counter -- departure losses and the 'plug-and-play doesn't work' read.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
Only 2 of 112 board posts mention it — below our floor to call a community stance. Shown as texture, not a verdict.
The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.
Georgia State win total fell from 4.5 to 3.5 (-1 wins) between Aug 24 and Aug 25, 2026 (tier C). It is win total down 1.0 — solo market signal, no peers moved the same direction. The market moved; the fan base is split on what it means. Oddsmakers react to information, not sentiment — but that doesn't mean they're right. The room is divided — bulls and bears both have game-specific cases.
The 'market knows something fans don't' read -- when odds move, it's on information.
The 'markets overcorrect' counter -- lines move on noise too; the receipts may not hold.
This event was in 17 of 112 board posts (15%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
More in this tab
Georgia State is the Sun Belt program whose 2010 program founding + Center Parc Stadium (former Turner Field) + Shawn Elliott era define what Atlanta-FBS-newcomer-football looks like.
S Keenan Nelson Jr. transfer commits from Ohio State
Safety room burned through 10 departures and still had a starter gap after losing Jaylen Jones — Nelson Jr. leaving the Big Ten depth chart for Sun Belt playing time is the kind of portal math that fills holes on both ends.
Win total: 4.5 → 3.5 (▼1)
Win total dropped from 4.5 to 3.5 with conference peers flat — the books see something program-specific.
Thalia Martin commits to Georgia State
Auburn-to-Sun Belt is a tier drop on paper, but McGee's top-60 portal class keeps stacking — Martin lands in a DL room under real pressure with a class that's building identity, not just bodies.
Top 3 commits
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
GA leads the 2026 class with 12 commits. National footprint reaching 8 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
90 signees across 17 states, 2023-2026. GA leads the pull.
Miles from home · 2026 roster
The median Georgia State player grew up 94 miles from campus.
Half this roster came from closer than that; half came from farther.
Straight-line distance from each player's listed hometown to Center Parc Stadium. Hometowns are placed at city-centroid precision, not street address — fine at this scale, but a player's true door-to-door number can differ by a few miles. 111 of 119 listed players have a geocoded hometown. Source: CFBD roster hometowns.
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
The penalty battle is a wash: 21 penalties committed vs. 18 drawn on opponents.
175 penalty yards committed vs. 153 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
Outcome band · Georgia State · 2026
Recruiting Footprint · 2026