Georgia State1-113Dell McGee begins his second season at Georgia State with a 1-11 losing record, raising questions about whether the program's identity as an Atlanta-FBS-newcomer-football standard-bearer can be redefined.
Georgia State plays its home games inside the stadium where the Braves won pennants, a 2010 startup still trying to convince its own enormous city that a downtown-Atlanta college team is worth a Saturday.
Everyone in the metro grew up a Georgia or Georgia Tech fan; Panther fans are the ones who chose the new thing, and they're tired of being told a 2010 startup downtown can't be anybody's real team.
Approaching
29 days
until kickoff · vs North Carolina A&T · Fri Sep 4 · 23:00 UTC
Georgia State is the Sun Belt program whose 2010 program founding + Center Parc Stadium (former Turner Field) + Shawn Elliott era define what Atlanta-FBS-newcomer-football looks like.
The team returns only 68% of its roster, while losing key players to the NFL Draft and transfers, and recruits ranked #84 nationally.
Pounce the Panther is patient.
the open questionwhere does it go from here?
Jordan Simmons: a garbage time merchant signal screened this season.
Ted Hurst is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
Georgia State, under Dell McGee's third season, seeks to revive its 2010 founding identity after a 1-11 losing record that contrasts sharply with its historic Atlanta-FBS-newcomer-football legacy.
Georgia State enters 2025 at No. 133 in SP+ — the 10-spot drop under McGee raises one question: Can talent rank #77 offset the losing record's momentum?
Dell McGee begins his second season at Georgia State with a 1-11 losing record, raising questions about whether the program's identity as an Atlanta-FBS-newcomer-football standard-bearer can be redefined.
Dell McGee begins his second season at Georgia State with a 1-11 losing record to overcome, as the program's identity hinges on redefining what Atlanta-FBS-newcomer-football can achieve.
McGee's top-14 portal class jumps 33 spots nationally after a 1-11 season, diagnosing offensive line as the core problem with Smith Jr. and Mascoll arriving to fix it.
S Keenan Nelson Jr. transfer commits from Ohio State
Safety room burned through 10 departures and still had a starter gap after losing Jaylen Jones — Nelson Jr. leaving the Big Ten depth chart for Sun Belt playing time is the kind of portal math that fills holes on both ends.
Thalia Martin commits to Georgia State
Auburn-to-Sun Belt is a tier drop on paper, but McGee's top-60 portal class keeps stacking — Martin lands in a DL room under real pressure with a class that's building identity, not just bodies.
Top 3 commits
Market outlook
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-08-06
Georgia State · Next-Season Outcome Band
Final-season-aware projection: floor / base / ceiling include conference title and CFP games where the model supports them, so a ceiling can exceed a 12-game regular season.
Georgia State enters 2025 rated No. 133 in SP+ (-24.5), down 10 spots from 2024. SP+ describes what the program HAS done, not what it will do. The season is the field test. Preview coverage is split — believers and skeptics are reading the same data differently.
The 'the projection is underselling us' read -- fans betting the season beats the preview number.
The 'the model has seen the tape' counter -- efficiency ratings reward what a program has actually done, not hope.
Only 2 of 8 board posts mention it — below our floor to call a community stance. Shown as texture, not a verdict.
The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.
Georgia State: the fanbase's identity shifting.
The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.
The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.
Only 2 of 8 board posts mention it — below our floor to call a community stance. Shown as texture, not a verdict.
The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.
Recent Form · last 10 games
Zero of five. Reset territory.
Opens Sep 4
vs North Carolina A&T · at home
✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
GA leads the 2026 class with 12 commits. National footprint reaching 8 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
90 signees across 17 states, 2023-2026. GA leads the pull.
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
Recovering 45% of their own fumbles — running cold vs. the ~51% league rate.
5 of 11 own fumbles recovered themselves; 3 of 6 forced fumbles recovered, 2025 only.
Getting hands on the ball but not cashing in: 7% of disruptions converted, vs. the ~19% league rate.
3 interceptions of 42 disrupted passes (39 deflected, 3 intercepted), 2025 only.
Losing the penalty battle: 103 penalties committed vs. 71 drawn on opponents, a 176-yard deficit.
815 penalty yards committed vs. 639 drawn on opponents, 2025 season total.
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Position = mood · width = volume · color = the kind of feeling
~ our readGeorgia State fans are split right down the middle, but it's more feel than fact right now.
✓ counted We read 89 posts from Georgia State fans this week.
Five Lenses
What people are saying right now
Fanbase Health Index · Georgia State · medium confidence
FBS rankings · 2025 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scrambler · +0.39 EPA/play | 8 | 10 | 119 / 184 | 64.7 | 1259 | 6.8 | 13 | 1 | 144.4 | 62.9 | 7.7 | 2.1 | |
Yards by week → ScramblerMakes plays with feet when the pocket collapses. Efficiency still on the rise. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 45 of 183 QBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Rush usage24.9% 60th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts INT rate0.5% 95th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like View Cameran Brown's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Pocket Passer · +0.10 EPA/play | 2 | 7 | 127 / 201 | 63.2 | 1244 | 6.2 | 6 | 7 | 118.1 | 36.0 | 4.6 | 4.7 | |
Yards by week → Pocket PasserBalanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 97 of 183 QBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / attempt6.4 bottom 19th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Rush yards / carry-1.8 bottom 6th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like View TJ Finley's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Pocket Passer · +0.17 EPA/play | 11 | 3 | 41 / 86 | 47.7 | 513 | 6.0 | 3 | 3 | 102.3 | 37.8 | 4.9 | 1.1 | |
Yards by week → Pocket PasserBalanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile. 97 of 183 QBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / attempt6.9 bottom 26th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Completion %50.5% bottom 2th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like View Christian Veilleux's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Stuff% | 10+% | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Satellite Back · +0.11 EPA/play | 9 | 11 | 97 | 543 | 5.6 | 2 | 92 | 7.5 | 10 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 9.4% (39/413) | |
Yards by week → Satellite Back· Boom-or-bustDeployed as a receiver as much as a runner. Value is in space, not between the tackles. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 50 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Receiving share22.4% 95th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Rush TD rate2.1% bottom 21th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jordan Simmons's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Workhorse · +0.12 EPA/play | 30 | 9 | 63 | 267 | 4.2 | 2 | 29 | 7.3 | 7.1 | 18.2 | 9.1 | 3.6% (15/413) | |
Yards by week → WorkhorseBuilt to take 20+ carries per game. Volume is the value. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 52 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight220 lb 82th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / carry4.4 bottom 24th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Rashad Amos's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Balanced Back · -0.44 EPA/play | 22 | 11 | 46 | 148 | 3.2 | 1 | 47 | 2.6 | 2.9 | — | — | — | |
Yards by week → Balanced BackPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 186 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / carry4.1 bottom 14th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / reception4.4 bottom 16th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Branson Robinson's full player page | |||||||||||||
| -0.24 EPA/play | 2 | 7 | 29 | 104 | 3.6 | 0 | 11 | 3.4 | 6.4 | — | — | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Possession Receiver · +0.44 EPA/play | 1 | 11 | 71 | 1004 #23 FBS | 14.1 | 6 #62 FBS | 70 | 22.4 | 19.2 | 28.3% (117/413) | |
Yards by week → Possession Receiver· Boom-or-bustReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception14.3 60th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Reception volume71 98th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Ted Hurst's full player page | |||||||||||
| Slot Technician · +0.42 EPA/play | 5 | 12 | 58 | 599 | 10.3 | 4 | 46 | 11.4 | 12.3 | 19.6% (81/413) | |
Yards by week → Slot TechnicianRuns precise routes in tight quarters. Volume player who keeps chains moving. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 97 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Reception volume58 90th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Yards / reception10.7 bottom 25th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Javon Robinson's full player page | |||||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.72 EPA/play | 85 | 8 | 21 | 288 | 13.7 | 4 | 52 | 8 | 7.2 | 7.3% (30/413) | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. 177 of 223 TEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception11.0 bottom 50th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions TD rate19.0% 90th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Grant Hollier's full player page | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.38 EPA/play | 10 | 7 | 16 | 176 | 11 | 1 | 32 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.6% (19/413) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. The most common profile in its group this season — 332 of 558 classified this way. Played in 7 of 21 games this season · junior View DJ Riles's full player page | |||||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.62 EPA/play | — | 5 | 15 | 132 | 8.8 | 2 | 20 | 8.3 | 10.5 | 4.8% (20/413) | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. The most common profile in its group this season — 177 of 223 classified this way. Played in 5 of 21 games this season · senior View Camden Overton's full player page | |||||||||||
| Jump-Ball Target · +0.84 EPA/play | 3 | 6 | 14 | 129 | 9.2 | 2 | 21 | 9.9 | 7.0 | 4.4% (18/413) | |
Yards by week → Jump-Ball TargetWins contested catches at the goal line. Size and catch radius are the weapons. 29 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TD rate14.3% 82th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.8 92th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Leo Blackburn's full player page | |||||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.05 EPA/play | 88 | 6 | 9 | 92 | 10.2 | 0 | 17 | 1.5 | 2.8 | — | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. 177 of 223 TEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception10.2 bottom 42th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.1 bottom 9th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Lane Wadle's full player page | |||||||||||
| +0.09 EPA/play | 82 | 7 | 6 | 75 | 12.5 | 0 | 23 | 0 | 1.1 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Two-Gap Base | 16 | 12 | 48 | 19 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 5 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. 388 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate7.3% bottom 22th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Bishop Thomas's full player page | |||||||
| Versatile End | 13 | 10 | 41 | 14 | 5 | 1.5 | 3 |
Versatile EndNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 139 of 200 EDGEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate12.2% bottom 25th percentile · FBS EDGE, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Jabriel Rhodes-Nelson's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 56 | 11 | 34 | 8 | 2.5 | 1 | 1 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 388 of 809 classified this way. Played in 11 of 21 games this season · senior · 3-star, 2021 class our readBreakout: his CFB Index score moved from the 14th to 60th percentile among FBS IDLs | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 10 | 9 | 24 | 9 | 0.5 | 0 | 2 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 388 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate2.1% bottom 10th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readFading: his CFB Index score now sits at the 20th percentile among FBS IDLs, up from the 97th | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 99 | 9 | 22 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate27.3% 91th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Jartavius Flounoy's full player page | |||||||
| Versatile End | 11 | 6 | 18 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
Versatile EndNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. 139 of 200 EDGEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt View Ian Mathews's full player pageTFL rate11.1% bottom 22th percentile · FBS EDGE, min. 10 tackles | |||||||
| Versatile End | 95 | 5 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Versatile EndNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. The most common profile in its group this season — 139 of 200 classified this way. Played in 5 of 21 games this season · sophomore View Richard Kramer's full player page | |||||||
| 52 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| 34 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Linebacker | 25 | 12 | 96 | 42 | 54 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. 362 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume96 95th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles PD rate1.0% bottom 29th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Josiah Robinson's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 30 | 12 | 57 | 25 | 32 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 362 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume57 59th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles PD rate0.0% bottom 18th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Kedrick Walker's full player page | |||||||||
| Thumper | 9 | 10 | 32 | 21 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
ThumperDownhill striker who fills the run lane and blitzes off the edge. 97 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate9.4% bottom 50th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles PD rate0.0% bottom 18th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Marlin Dean's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 20 | 7 | 26 | 10 | 16 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 362 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume26 bottom 19th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate1.9% bottom 15th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint View Coby Owens's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 45 | 10 | 24 | 10 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 362 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume24 bottom 17th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Sack rate0.0% bottom 23th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Kelan Butler's full player page | |||||||||
| 1 | 3 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| 49 | 5 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 36 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Box Safety | 23 | 12 | 66 | 1 | 1 | 4.5 | 0 |
Box SafetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 166 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume66 87th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like our readBreakout: his CFB Index score climbed from the 0th percentile to the 65th among FBS Ss | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 4 | 12 | 51 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 419 of 801 classified this way. Played in 12 of 21 games this season · junior · 3-star, 2022 class our readAscending: his CFB Index score went from the 14th percentile among FBS Ss to the 58th | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 6 | 11 | 47 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 419 of 801 classified this way. Played in 11 of 21 games this season · senior our readBreakout: his CFB Index score moved from the 1st to 57th percentile among FBS Ss | |||||||
| Cover Corner | 2 | 10 | 39 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Cover CornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 141 of 270 classified this way. Played in 10 of 21 games this season · junior · 3-star, 2025 class View Deuce Fillmore's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 7 | 10 | 33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 419 of 801 classified this way. Played in 10 of 21 games this season · sophomore · 3-star, 2024 class View Deuce Walker's full player page | |||||||
| Press Corner | 18 | 9 | 25 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Press CornerLong and physical; jams receivers off their route at the line. 43 of 270 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Height6'4" 99th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readBreakout: his CFB Index score moved from the 3rd to 54th percentile among FBS CBs | |||||||
| Cover Corner | 32 | 7 | 22 | 2 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
Cover CornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. 141 of 270 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate9.1% bottom 32th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Tyson McCrary's full player page | |||||||
| Ball Hawk | 28 | 10 | 19 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
Ball HawkReads the quarterback's eyes and takes the ball away. 44 of 270 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate31.6% 97th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Bernard Causey III's full player page | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 21 | 7 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 133 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate23.5% 98th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Derrick Maxey III's full player page | |||||||
| 24 | 7 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 6 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 12 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 14 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 92 | 8 | 5/9 | 55.6 | 13/13 | 28 | 47 | |
| 15 | 7 | 2/7 | 28.6 | 7/8 | 13 | 60 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Complete | 91 | 12 | 54 | 2474 | 45.8 | 62 | 21 | 2 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -0.25 EPA/play | 21 | 9 | 21 | 364 | 17.3 | 0 | 34 |
| +0.09 EPA/play | 82 | 7 | 8 | 146 | 18.3 | 0 | 24 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slot Technician · +0.42 EPA/play | 5 | 12 | 8 | 10 | 1.3 | 0 | 6 |
2025 stat leaders
finalRoster
2025+17 more
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 30 | #160 | #11 | +33.5 | @Ole Miss | L 7–63 141 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 6 | #102 | #72 | +15.5 | Memphis | L 16–38 128 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 13 | #127 | #251 | -31.5 | Murray State | W 37–21 134 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 4 | Sep 20 | #144 | #26 | +26.5 | @Vanderbilt | L 21–70 138 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| 6 | Oct 4 | #157 | #33 | +18.5 | James Madison | L 7–14 116 | 1-4 | 0-1 |
| 7 | Oct 11 | #148 | #144 | +2.5 | App State | L 20–41 155 | 1-5 | 0-2 |
| 8 | Oct 18 | #170 | #109 | +6.5 | @Georgia Southern | L 24–41 141 | 1-6 | 0-3 |
| 9 | Oct 23 | #165 | #127 | +6 | South Alabama | L 31–38 139 | 1-7 | 0-4 |
| 11 | Nov 8 | #181 | #129 | +7.5 | @Coastal Carolina | L 27–40 140 | 1-8 | 0-5 |
| 12 | Nov 15 | #190 | #88 | +9.5 | Marshall | L 18–30 137 | 1-9 | 0-6 |
| 13 | Nov 22 | #198 | #131 | +10.5 | @Troy | L 19–31 160 | 1-10 | 0-7 |
| 14 | Nov 29 | #203 | #31 | +28.5 | @Old Dominion | L 10–27 143 | 1-11 | 0-8 |
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 29 | @Old Dominion | L 10–27 | 283 | 1 | 27:32 | +0.039 | 36.8% | 89.5% | |
| Nov 22 | @Troy | L 19–31 | 516 | 1 | 29:55 | +0.033 | 41.4% | 117.2% | |
| Nov 15 | Marshall | L 18–30 | 409 | 3 | 32:33 | +0.078 | 32.5% | 162.6% | Most explosive |
| Nov 8 | @Coastal Carolina | L 27–40 | 423 | 2 | 30:56 | +0.070 | 44.2% | 106.7% | |
| Oct 23 | South Alabama | L 31–38 | 440 | 2 | 29:57 | +0.287 | 44.4% | 120.4% | One-score loss |
| Oct 18 | @Georgia Southern | L 24–41 | 444 | 1 | 32:20 | +0.312 | 59.7% | 98.8% | Best success rate |
| Oct 11 | App State | L 20–41 | 381 | 1 | 28:13 | +0.067 | 35.3% | 136.4% | |
| Oct 4 | James Madison | L 7–14 | 249 | 0 | 28:07 | +0.128 | 35.8% | 121.8% | Best defensive stand |
| Sep 20 | @Vanderbilt | L 21–70 | 290 | 1 | 30:11 | +0.076 | 36.4% | 135.6% | Defense's roughest night |
| Sep 13 | Murray State | W 37–21 | 454 | 3 | 30:55 | +0.409 | 50.8% | 135.6% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 6 | Memphis | L 16–38 | 389 | 1 | 30:07 | +0.155 | 42.5% | 150.2% | |
| Aug 30 | @Ole Miss | L 7–63 | 260 | 1 | 31:24 | -0.045 | 22.4% | 148.8% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Season average (12 games) | 378 | 1.4 | +0.134 | 40.2% | 127.0% | ||||
Georgia State fields a limited pass-first offense behind a porous defense.
Opponent-adjusted percentiles vs all FBS. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Team identity · competitive snaps only
36th percentile quality, 70th percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 86th | 11th |
| Akron | 12th | 89th |
| Alabama | 58th | 17th |
| App State | 35th | 47th |
| Arizona | 64th | 37th |
| Arizona State | 41st | 62nd |
| Arkansas | 90th | 12th |
| Arkansas State | 17th | 66th |
| Army | 57th | 43rd |
| Auburn | 47th | 53rd |
| BYU | 78th | 19th |
| Baylor | 69th | 25th |
| Boise State | 66th | 20th |
| Boston College | 37th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 2nd | 98th |
| Buffalo | 11th | 88th |
| California | 28th | 48th |
| Central Michigan | 52nd | 64th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 16th |
| Clemson | 51st | 48th |
| Coastal Carolina | 17th | 83rd |
| Colorado | 18th | 84th |
| Colorado State | 16th | 83rd |
| Delaware | 38th | 58th |
| Duke | 80th | 14th |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 36th |
| Eastern Michigan | 49th | 42nd |
| Florida | 30th | 67th |
| Florida Atlantic | 62nd | 59th |
| Florida International | 42nd | 50th |
| Florida State | 83rd | 32nd |
| Fresno State | 26th | 73rd |
| Georgia | 81st | 3rd |
| Georgia Southern | 73rd | 21st |
| Georgia State | 36th | 70th |
| Georgia Tech | 84th | 5th |
| Hawai'i | 64th | 41st |
| Houston | 27th | 65th |
| Illinois | 75th | 26th |
| Indiana | 95th | 1st |
| Iowa | 44th | 40th |
| Iowa State | 68th | 22nd |
| Jacksonville State | 54th | 38th |
| James Madison | 65th | 44th |
| Kansas | 85th | 28th |
| Kansas State | 71st | 49th |
| Kennesaw State | 56th | 30th |
| Kent State | 21st | 86th |
| Kentucky | 15th | 85th |
| LSU | 14th | 81st |
| Liberty | 43rd | 56th |
| Louisiana | 19th | 73rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 39th | 61st |
| Louisville | 48th | 64th |
| Marshall | 55th | 39th |
| Maryland | 30th | 74th |
| Memphis | 80th | 24th |
| Miami | 76th | 5th |
| Miami (OH) | 34th | 67th |
| Michigan | 67th | 33rd |
| Michigan State | 27th | 75th |
| Middle Tennessee | 39th | 52nd |
| Minnesota | 29th | 77th |
| Mississippi State | 22nd | 77th |
| Missouri | 61st | 30th |
| Missouri State | 55th | 46th |
| NC State | 86th | 23rd |
| Navy | 94th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 48th | 57th |
| Nevada | 3rd | 97th |
| New Mexico | 58th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 9th | 87th |
| North Carolina | 13th | 89th |
| North Texas | 98th | 7th |
| Northern Illinois | 8th | 92nd |
| Northwestern | 52nd | 36th |
| Notre Dame | 99th | 20th |
| Ohio | 67th | 18th |
| Ohio State | 93rd | 4th |
| Oklahoma | 20th | 80th |
| Oklahoma State | 5th | 95th |
| Old Dominion | 83rd | 45th |
| Ole Miss | 89th | 2nd |
| Oregon | 91st | 10th |
| Oregon State | 2nd | 98th |
| Penn State | 73rd | 33rd |
| Pittsburgh | 60th | 39th |
| Purdue | 25th | 78th |
| Rice | 6th | 94th |
| Rutgers | 70th | 27th |
| SMU | 74th | 42nd |
| Sam Houston | 4th | 96th |
| San Diego State | 24th | 76th |
| San José State | 45th | 69th |
| South Alabama | 36th | 58th |
| South Carolina | 23rd | 86th |
| South Florida | 87th | 23rd |
| Southern Miss | 40th | 55th |
| Stanford | 10th | 90th |
| Syracuse | 5th | 95th |
| TCU | 72nd | 35th |
| Temple | 70th | 34th |
| Tennessee | 96th | 11th |
| Texas | 45th | 55th |
| Texas A&M | 82nd | 14th |
| Texas State | 92nd | 8th |
| Texas Tech | 77th | 31st |
| Toledo | 50th | 61st |
| Troy | 14th | 80th |
| Tulane | 79th | 15th |
| Tulsa | 20th | 70th |
| UAB | 61st | 45th |
| UCF | 33rd | 82nd |
| UCLA | 23rd | 79th |
| UConn | 95th | 13th |
| UL Monroe | 11th | 92nd |
| UNLV | 88th | 9th |
| USC | 98th | 2nd |
| UTEP | 1st | 99th |
| UTSA | 77th | 51st |
| Utah | 97th | 6th |
| Utah State | 46th | 63rd |
| Vanderbilt | 100th | 0th |
| Virginia | 59th | 27th |
| Virginia Tech | 32nd | 71st |
| Wake Forest | 42nd | 72nd |
| Washington | 92nd | 8th |
| Washington State | 33rd | 52nd |
| West Virginia | 7th | 93rd |
| Western Kentucky | 53rd | 29th |
| Western Michigan | 31st | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 0th | 100th |
| Wyoming | 8th | 91st |
Fourth-quarter reliability, corrected
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 54th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it drops to the 45th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
22nd percentile success on standard downs, 75th on passing downs — a 53-point gap between the two.
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 82nd | 69th |
| Akron | 20th | 36th |
| Alabama | 47th | 76th |
| App State | 41st | 80th |
| Arizona | 54th | 54th |
| Arizona State | 40th | 37th |
| Arkansas | 90th | 97th |
| Arkansas State | 51st | 40th |
| Army | 37th | 44th |
| Auburn | 73rd | 24th |
| Austin Peay | 56th | 13th |
| BYU | 91st | 46th |
| Ball State | 5th | 3rd |
| Baylor | 70th | 77th |
| Boise State | 42nd | 63rd |
| Boston College | 56th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 10th | 17th |
| Bryant | 7th | 2nd |
| Buffalo | 29th | 20th |
| California | 25th | 66th |
| Central Michigan | 57th | 11th |
| Charlotte | 7th | 7th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 65th |
| Clemson | 49th | 34th |
| Coastal Carolina | 16th | 22nd |
| Colorado | 8th | 48th |
| Colorado State | 29th | 35th |
| Delaware | 66th | 31st |
| Duke | 82nd | 63rd |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 91st |
| Eastern Michigan | 46th | 67th |
| Florida | 52nd | 45th |
| Florida Atlantic | 44th | 61st |
| Florida International | 50th | 26th |
| Florida State | 65th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 22nd | 71st |
| Georgia | 95th | 69th |
| Georgia Southern | 64th | 84th |
| Georgia State | 22nd | 75th |
| Georgia Tech | 92nd | 89th |
| Hawai'i | 33rd | 87th |
| Houston | 61st | 29th |
| Idaho | 30th | 78th |
| Idaho State | 93rd | 14th |
| Illinois | 79th | 95th |
| Indiana | 97th | 98th |
| Iowa | 74th | 19th |
| Iowa State | 80th | 58th |
| Jacksonville State | 59th | 56th |
| James Madison | 77th | 52nd |
| Kansas | 99th | 82nd |
| Kansas State | 37th | 59th |
| Kennesaw State | 44th | 67th |
| Kent State | 15th | 5th |
| Kentucky | 62nd | 29th |
| LSU | 18th | 52nd |
| Lafayette | 0th | 12th |
| Liberty | 65th | 53rd |
| Lindenwood | 4th | 1st |
| Long Island University | 24th | 78th |
| Louisiana | 24th | 23rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 41st | 24th |
| Louisville | 84th | 32nd |
| Maine | 3rd | 18th |
| Marshall | 71st | 62nd |
| Maryland | 11th | 86th |
| Massachusetts | 5th | 9th |
| Memphis | 75th | 68th |
| Merrimack | 1st | 83rd |
| Miami | 80th | 64th |
| Miami (OH) | 33rd | 39th |
| Michigan | 73rd | 74th |
| Michigan State | 48th | 39th |
| Middle Tennessee | 69th | 47th |
| Minnesota | 35th | 33rd |
| Mississippi State | 52nd | 35th |
| Missouri | 76th | 50th |
| Missouri State | 32nd | 50th |
| Murray State | 1st | 6th |
| NC State | 58th | 71st |
| Navy | 95th | 72nd |
| Nebraska | 78th | 51st |
| Nevada | 17th | 16th |
| New Mexico | 38th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 16th | 33rd |
| North Carolina | 14th | 30th |
| North Texas | 100th | 97th |
| Northern Illinois | 9th | 5th |
| Northwestern | 48th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 88th | 99th |
| Ohio | 69th | 76th |
| Ohio State | 99th | 99th |
| Oklahoma | 39th | 41st |
| Oklahoma State | 14th | 7th |
| Old Dominion | 72nd | 79th |
| Ole Miss | 83rd | 95th |
| Oregon | 93rd | 55th |
| Oregon State | 54th | 25th |
| Penn State | 76th | 73rd |
| Pittsburgh | 35th | 56th |
| Purdue | 46th | 88th |
| Rice | 20th | 0th |
| Rutgers | 71st | 84th |
| SMU | 50th | 57th |
| Sam Houston | 26th | 4th |
| San Diego State | 84th | 1st |
| San José State | 68th | 70th |
| South Alabama | 53rd | 28th |
| South Carolina | 31st | 8th |
| South Carolina State | 10th | 3rd |
| South Florida | 86th | 46th |
| Southern Miss | 27th | 38th |
| Stanford | 12th | 12th |
| Syracuse | 19th | 10th |
| TCU | 63rd | 82nd |
| Temple | 85th | 22nd |
| Tennessee | 97th | 81st |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 88th | 59th |
| Texas State | 60th | 93rd |
| Texas Tech | 45th | 65th |
| Toledo | 67th | 42nd |
| Troy | 18th | 27th |
| Tulane | 81st | 86th |
| Tulsa | 43rd | 43rd |
| UAB | 34th | 94th |
| UCF | 39th | 20th |
| UCLA | 28th | 48th |
| UConn | 96th | 37th |
| UL Monroe | 13th | 14th |
| UNLV | 78th | 85th |
| USC | 94th | 90th |
| UT Martin | 2nd | 41st |
| UTEP | 3rd | 10th |
| UTSA | 67th | 92nd |
| Utah | 87th | 96th |
| Utah State | 31st | 49th |
| Vanderbilt | 90th | 100th |
| Virginia | 36th | 73rd |
| Virginia Tech | 59th | 21st |
| Wake Forest | 21st | 31st |
| Washington | 98th | 93rd |
| Washington State | 61st | 44th |
| West Virginia | 12th | 18th |
| Western Kentucky | 55th | 80th |
| Western Michigan | 86th | 16th |
| Wisconsin | 6th | 27th |
| Wyoming | 23rd | 15th |
Halftime identity
1st-half offense ranks 46th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 24th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
Schedule mirage
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.13; 51st percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.03. The widest gap came in week 3: 0.17 raw vs. 0.03 adjusted.
Georgia State reads strongest in explosive plays (top 46%) and explosive plays allowed (top 47%); the crux lives in epa allowed, where Georgia State sits at the 4th percentile.
offense · strengths lead
defense · higher bar = harder to play against
hidden math · special situations
Most Similar Programs · Georgia State
Static-attribute similarity across tier, archetype, conference, and voice. Not a prediction — a calibration.
Home-Field Advantage · Georgia State · 2018-present
46% home win rate vs 28% on the road. margin runs +8.0 better at home. Center Parc Stadium seats 25,000, averaging 61% full (15,370 attendance, 22 games reported).
Positional competition · WR/TE room
Ted Hurst (WR) and Grant Hollier (TE) split the targets (114/143 vs 29/143) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Grant Hollier produces in bigger chunks.
What changed
The biggest shift: red-zone pass rate moved down 7 points. The rest held closer to steady.
The biggest shift: red-zone pass rate moved down 7 points. The rest held closer to steady.
Defensive identity · pass zones
On short passes, Georgia State’s defense allows a completion rate above the FBS mean (66.5% vs 65.9% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 104-play sample) — mid-pack, 82 of 133 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball leaderboard here: at the defense level, most teams face well under 30 rich-feed deep targets all season — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess.
70°F average kickoff temp; 10% of games had measurable precipitation; 7 mph average wind.
Based on 68 home games with weather data.
12 seasons inside the CFP era, no bids yet — the era the program is still trying to break into.
Georgia State's 2014–2025 record is 53-91. The era is still being written; the CFP line is the one the program is arguing for.
All-Time Record
since 2010 · 16 seasons · .342 win rate
Georgia State plays its home games in the stadium where the Braves won the 1995 World Series. The Panthers started playing football in 2010. The distance between those two facts is the whole program.
Georgia State is the youngest program in its own state, built from a standing start in 2010 in a downtown-Atlanta venue that belonged to baseball before it belonged to football. Center Parc Stadium — the former Turner Field, retrofitted for the sport — is the physical argument the Panthers are always making: that a commuter school in the middle of the Southeast's biggest recruiting city can be a real football program, not just an activity. Shawn Elliott made the argument credible, taking Georgia State to four bowls and a Cure Bowl win in 2017, and an upset at Tennessee in 2019 that the program still leads with.
Dell McGee's second season in 2025 collapsed to 1-11 — nine losses by double digits, zero conference wins, the lone victory over an FCS opponent. It was the kind of floor that exposed how thin the foundation still is when a young program loses its footing. McGee enters year three having overhauled his staff, rebuilding the staff structure that the 1-11 season revealed as insufficient, trying to climb back to the bowl level that Elliott proved Georgia State could reach.
The 2026 season will answer the most fundamental question in downtown Atlanta: is Dell McGee's tenure a rebuild with an arc, or is the 1-11 floor evidence that the program's foundation is more fragile than Shawn Elliott's run suggested? The largest university in Georgia is two miles from the best high school talent corridor in the South. Whether the Panthers can finally convert proximity into production is the question the next two seasons will adjudicate.
Transfer-heavy, urban-recruiting modern spread — Georgia State's roster strategy is mining players the blue bloods passed on, using the Atlanta metro as a recruiting funnel and the portal as a depth solution. The scheme is contemporary spread-RPO with a focus on skill-position speed sourced locally. The brand is downtown Atlanta ambition: a young program betting that location and the right staff can close the gap faster than recruiting rank suggests.
Georgia State 2016–2025. Holding the line. The 10-year slope (-0.05 rungs / yr) doesn't tilt either way — the program lives at roughly Tier 2.
12 seasons on file
down middle peak CFP year
Season Standing · 2025 · 1-11
Georgia State: Below .500 in FBS play. The rebuild bar.
Sun Belt Standing · 2025
Georgia State is 14th of 14 in the Sun Belt at 0-8. The path to the title is steep — the focus is on bowl access and rivalry wins.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Madison | 8-0 |
| 2 | Old Dominion | 6-2 |
| 3 | Southern Miss | 5-3 |
| 4 | Troy | 5-3 |
| 5 | Coastal Carolina | 5-4 |
| 6 | Georgia Southern | 5-4 |
| 7 | Arkansas State | 4-3 |
| 8 | Louisiana | 4-3 |
| 9 | South Alabama | 3-4 |
| 10 | Louisiana Tech | 2-0 |
| 11 | Marshall | 2-5 |
| 12 | App State | 2-7 |
| 13 | UL Monroe | 1-6 |
| 14 | Georgia State | 0-8 |
Coaching Era · Georgia State
Dell McGee in year 3 of the rebuild. The methodology is taking shape.
Three gameday rituals — the ones outsiders never quite catch.
since 2010
Georgia State football began in 2010 — the most-recent FBS-aspiring program creation. Bill Curry was the founding head coach. The program went FCS 2010-2012, FBS 2013, then C-USA 2014, then Sun Belt 2014. The 2010 founding-from-scratch + rapid Sun Belt ascent + the Atlanta market make GSU's institutional story unique.
since 2017
Center Parc Stadium — Georgia State plays in the converted Turner Field (Atlanta Braves' former MLB stadium, 1997-2016). The conversion + the downtown Atlanta setting + the MLB-to-CFB venue reuse + the 23,000 capacity create a venue distinct from any other G5 program. The unique adaptive-reuse heritage.
since 2017
Shawn Elliott's 2017 7-5 + Cure Bowl championship — his first year as head coach — was the program's first FBS bowl win. The 2017 breakthrough + Elliott's 2017-present tenure made GSU's ascent narrative concrete + opened sustained competitive cycles.
Program memory
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
2017
27-17 over Western Kentucky — a young program's first piece of hardware
2019
Georgia State walks into Neyland and beats the SEC's Vols 38-30 in the season opener
2025
McGee's second year bottoms out, the lone win over an FCS team
Wound
Moment of the Year · Georgia State · 2025
Week 1 of 2025. A reckoning loss — the data point the next season must answer.
Bowl / Postseason Ledger
Most recent: 2023 — win 22-45 (away). Last 5 postseason: 4-1.
NFL Draft Pipeline
2024–20262 picks last 5 cycles. Roster development still maturing.
Unit lineage
FBS-relative efficiency percentile per season (2014–2025), same population as the Coordinator Mirror board. Dashed vertical lines mark a coordinator change.
Hired for 2026: co-Cam Clark / co-John Haneline — not yet reflected in on-field data.
All-time top community posts · ranked by upvotes
Georgia State · Next-Season Outcome Band
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
Fanbase Health Index · Georgia State · medium confidence
2025 stat leaders
How They Play · 2025
Most Similar Programs · Georgia State
Season Standing · 2025 · 1-11
Coaching Era · Georgia State
Moment of the Year · Georgia State · 2025
Bowl / Postseason Ledger
NFL Draft Pipeline