Georgia State upsets Kennesaw State 31-17

Team pages: Georgia State · Kennesaw State

Georgia State2-031
Kennesaw State1-117Final
Sat, Sep 12 · Fifth Third Stadium, Kennesaw, Ga. · Crowd 11,040ESPN+

Georgia State beat Kennesaw State 31-17 as a 7.5-point underdog.

We had Kennesaw State favored. Georgia State won.

Next: Georgia State lost to UCF 44-30, Sat Sep 19

Next: Kennesaw State lost to Tennessee 42-9, Sat Sep 19

How it swung

The turning point: McCrary 1-yd TD run, Georgia State leads 21-3 (Q2, 0:40). Georgia State went from 72% to 89% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Georgia State a 35% chance, and the closing betting line (Georgia State was a 7.5-point underdog) put it at 27%.

FinalGeorgia State 31-17 Kennesaw StateGeorgia State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q488% at halfGeorgia StateLowest 23%Won31-1712+16+17Scores
50%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q488% at halfGeorgia StateLowest 23%Won31-1712Scores
50%10%25%75%Q1Q2Q3Q412% at halfGeorgia StateLowest 0%High 77%Lost17-3112−16−17Scores
50%10%25%75%Q1Q2Q3Q412% at halfGeorgia StateLowest 0%High 77%Lost17-3112Scores

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q2 12:02Brown 18-yd TD run, Georgia State leads 14-3Georgia State 47% → 63% (+16)
  2. 2Q2 0:40McCrary 1-yd TD run, Georgia State leads 21-3Georgia State 72% → 89% (+17)

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q2 12:02Brown 18-yd TD run, Georgia State leads 14-3Kennesaw State 53% → 37% (−16)
  2. 2Q2 0:40McCrary 1-yd TD run, Georgia State leads 21-3Kennesaw State 28% → 11% (−17)
Georgia State’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Kennesaw State -7.5), at 24% for Georgia State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Georgia State’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

  1. Q2, 12:02Brown 18-yd TD runGeorgia State leads 14-3Q2, 12:02 · Georgia State 14, Kennesaw State 3▲16%Georgia State’s chance to win, 47% to 63%▲16%Georgia State’s chance to win, 47% to 63%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  2. Q3, 4:42Murray 12-yd TD runGeorgia State leads 28-3Q3, 4:42 · Georgia State 28, Kennesaw State 3▲2%Georgia State’s chance to win, 95% to 97%▲2%Georgia State’s chance to win, 95% to 97%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  3. Q4, 7:17Collins sacked for a 4-yd lossQ4, 7:17 · Georgia State 31, Kennesaw State 1131-11score after the play31-11score after the playWatch from this playSun Belt Conference
  4. Q4, 6:47Collins intercepted by Lee at the KSU37Q4, 6:47 · Georgia State 31, Kennesaw State 11▼2%Georgia State’s chance to win, 100% to 98%▼2%Georgia State’s chance to win, 100% to 98%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  5. Q4, 1:56Collins 3-yd TD pass to Harroldcuts it to 31-17Q4, 1:56 · Georgia State 31, Kennesaw State 17▼5%Georgia State’s chance to win, 93% to 88%▼5%Georgia State’s chance to win, 93% to 88%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference

Every drive

Georgia State scored on 6 of its 11 drives; Kennesaw State on 3 of its 11.

Georgia State’s drives are teal, Kennesaw State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Georgia State: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 23Field goalKennesaw State: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 11Field goalGeorgia State: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 9Field goalKennesaw State: Punt, from 97 yards out to 94PuntQ2Georgia State: Touchdown, from 43 yards out to 0TouchdownKennesaw State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 58PuntGeorgia State: Punt, from 97 yards out to 76PuntKennesaw State: Punt, from 83 yards out to 56PuntGeorgia State: Touchdown, from 80 yards out to 0TouchdownKennesaw State: End of half, from 83 yards out to 63End of halfQ3Kennesaw State: Punt, from 78 yards out to 38PuntGeorgia State: Touchdown, from 93 yards out to 0TouchdownKennesaw State: Punt, from 70 yards out to 58PuntGeorgia State: Interception, from 81 yards out to 67InterceptionKennesaw State: Touchdown, from 65 yards out to 0TouchdownGeorgia State: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 24Field goalQ4Kennesaw State: Turned over on downs, from 78 yards out to 72DownsGeorgia State: Fumble, from 28 yards out to 18FumbleKennesaw State: Interception, from 82 yards out to 86InterceptionGeorgia State: Turned over on downs, from 37 yards out to 28DownsKennesaw State: Touchdown, from 72 yards out to 0TouchdownGeorgia State: End of game, from 52 yards out to 58End of game

What it cost

Georgia State’s chance to make the playoff rose from 0% to 1%.

Make the playoff

Georgia State · won0% → ▲1%
Kennesaw State · lost1% → ▼0%

Win the conference

Georgia State · won3% → 3%
Kennesaw State · lost9% → ▼8%9%▼ 8%

Before the game (September 11, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

Georgia State 31, Kennesaw State 17

Georgia State covered +7.5 by 21.5. The total, 48, stayed under 55.5.

Georgia StateKennesaw StateTotal yardsGeorgia State 483Kennesaw State 332483332Passing yardsGeorgia State 253Kennesaw State 260253260Rushing yardsGeorgia State 230Kennesaw State 7223072First downsGeorgia State 23Kennesaw State 172317TurnoversGeorgia State 2Kennesaw State 121Time of possessionGeorgia State 37:47Kennesaw State 22:1337:4722:13
Team totalsGeorgia StateKennesaw State
Total yards483332
Passing16 of 23, 253 yds22 of 35, 260 yds
Rushing47 for 230 yds21 for 72 yds
First downs2317
Third down6 of 132 of 9
Fourth down1 of 20 of 1
Turnovers21
Penalties9 for 65 yds2 for 15 yds
Time of possession37:4722:13

Georgia State leaders

  • Passing Cameran Brown 16 of 23, 253 yds, 1 INT
  • Rushing Lanear McCrary Jr. 19 for 101 yds, 1 TD; Cameran Brown 9 for 62 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Kyle Washington 2 for 59 yds; Grant Hollier 1 for 44 yds

Kennesaw State leaders

  • Passing Rickie Collins 22 of 35, 260 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing Rickie Collins 10 for 46 yds, 1 TD; Latrelle Murrell 3 for 12 yds
  • Receiving Javon Rogers 3 for 74 yds; Brayden Munroe 3 for 54 yds

No rain through the game

85° at kickoff · no rain recorded

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Kennesaw State favoredGeorgia State favored0%Win chanceKennesaw StateRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mphHourly wind only at this airport
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Kennesaw State favoredGeorgia State favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour2040Hourly wind only at this airport

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Second quarter, 0:40 left8:18 p.m.
Georgia State 21, Kennesaw State 3 · Kennesaw State 11% to win
no rain · 81°
McCrary 1-yd TD run, Georgia State leads 21-3

Jump to

Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Marietta airport, 2.1 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games · 2025 season

Georgia State · 1-11

Rated 155th in our preseason ratings, 154th now.

Three straight losses.

L 10-27 @ Old Dominion #44 of 667

lost by 17 as a 28.5-point underdog

Georgia State lost 10-27 at Old Dominion. Chance to win started at 2%, low under 1%, high 19%.

L 19-31 @ Troy #129 of 667

lost by 12 as a 10.5-point underdog

Georgia State lost 19-31 at Troy. Chance to win started at 16%, low under 1%, high 30%.

L 18-30 vs Marshall #83 of 667

lost by 12 as a 9.5-point underdog

Georgia State lost 18-30 vs Marshall. Chance to win started at 33%, low under 1%, high 62%.

L 27-40 @ Coastal Carolina #127 of 667

lost by 13 as a 7.5-point underdog

Georgia State lost 27-40 at Coastal Carolina. Chance to win started at 26%, low under 1%, high 29%.

L 31-38 vs South Alabama #103 of 667

lost by 7 as a 5.5-point underdog

Georgia State lost 31-38 vs South Alabama. Chance to win started at 41%, low 6%, high 66%.

L 24-41 @ Georgia Southern #131 of 667

lost by 17 as a 6.5-point underdog

Georgia State lost 24-41 at Georgia Southern. Chance to win started at 22%, low under 1%, high 60%.

L 20-41 vs App State #113 of 667

lost by 21 as a 2.5-point underdog

Georgia State lost 20-41 vs App State. Chance to win started at 50%, low under 1%, high 63%.

L 7-14 vs James MadisonTop 25 #60 of 667

lost by 7 as an 18.5-point underdog

Georgia State lost 7-14 vs James Madison. Chance to win started at 13%, low 3%, high 52%.

L 21-70 @ VanderbiltTop 25 #30 of 667

lost by 49 as a 26.5-point underdog

Georgia State lost 21-70 at Vanderbilt. Chance to win started at 4%, low under 1%, high 5%.

W 37-21 vs Murray State #258 of 667

won by 16 as a 31.5-point favorite

Georgia State won 37-21 vs Murray State. Chance to win started at 98%, low 97%, high better than 99%.

L 16-38 vs MemphisTop 25 #35 of 667

lost by 22 as a 15.5-point underdog

L 7-63 @ Ole MissTop 25 #5 of 667

lost by 56 as a 33.5-point underdog

Georgia State lost 7-63 at Ole Miss. Chance to win started at 2%, low under 1%, high 2%.

Last three games · 2025 season

Kennesaw State · 10-4

Rated 158th in our preseason ratings, 153rd now.

2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 6-41 @ Western Michigan #61 of 667

lost by 35 as a 3.5-point underdog

Kennesaw State lost 6-41 vs Western Michigan. Chance to win started at 20%, low under 1%, high 21%.

W 19-15 @ Jacksonville State #116 of 667

won by 4 as a 3-point favorite

Kennesaw State won 19-15 at Jacksonville State. Chance to win started at 49%, low 22%, high better than 99%.

W 48-42 @ Liberty #129 of 667

won by 6 as a 2.5-point favorite

Kennesaw State won 48-42 at Liberty. Chance to win started at 46%, low 11%, high better than 99%.

W 41-34 vs Missouri State #128 of 667

won by 7 as a 6.5-point favorite

Kennesaw State won 41-34 vs Missouri State. Chance to win started at 72%, low 24%, high 98%.

L 26-35 @ Jacksonville State #107 of 667

lost by 9 as a 3.5-point favorite

Kennesaw State lost 26-35 at Jacksonville State. Chance to win started at 55%, low under 1%, high 74%.

W 24-21 @ New Mexico State #175 of 667

won by 3 as an 11.5-point favorite

Kennesaw State won 24-21 at New Mexico State. Chance to win started at 72%, low 66%, high better than 99%.

W 33-20 vs UTEP #154 of 667

won by 13 as a 12.5-point favorite

Kennesaw State won 33-20 vs UTEP. Chance to win started at 84%, low 60%, high better than 99%.

W 45-26 @ Florida International #143 of 667

won by 19 as a 2.5-point favorite

Kennesaw State won 45-26 at Florida International. Chance to win started at 43%, low 39%, high better than 99%.

W 35-7 vs Louisiana Tech #114 of 667

won by 28 as a 5.5-point underdog

Kennesaw State won 35-7 vs Louisiana Tech. Chance to win started at 39%, low 16%, high better than 99%.

W 24-16 vs Middle Tennessee #189 of 667

won by 8 as a 7.5-point favorite

Kennesaw State won 24-16 vs Middle Tennessee. Chance to win started at 76%, low 76%, high 98%.

W 28-21 vs Arkansas State #137 of 667

won by 7 as a 4.5-point underdog

Kennesaw State won 28-21 vs Arkansas State. Chance to win started at 43%, low 43%, high 99%.

W 27-13 vs Merrimack #190 of 667

won by 14 as a 17.5-point favorite

Kennesaw State won 27-13 vs Merrimack. Chance to win started at 91%, low 83%, high better than 99%.

L 9-56 @ IndianaTop 25 #38 of 667

lost by 47 as a 35.5-point underdog

Kennesaw State lost 9-56 at Indiana. Chance to win started at 1%, low under 1%, high 2%.

L 9-10 @ Wake Forest #81 of 667

lost by 1 as an 18.5-point underdog

Kennesaw State lost 9-10 at Wake Forest. Chance to win started at 7%, low 3%, high 25%.

Week by week

Kennesaw State

  • Wk 1Wvs West Georgia47-0

Georgia State

  • Wk 1Wvs North Carolina A&T59-10

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Georgia State’s passing EPA against Kennesaw State, 72 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

  1. Georgia State’s passing EPA against Kennesaw State’s defense

    72 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Georgia State offense, 92nd percentile · Kennesaw State defense, 20th

  2. Kennesaw State’s explosive plays against Georgia State’s defense

    60 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Kennesaw State offense, 6th percentile · Georgia State defense, 66th

  3. Georgia State’s EPA/play against Kennesaw State’s defense

    41 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Georgia State offense, 74th percentile · Kennesaw State defense, 33rd

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

Georgia StateKennesaw State
EPA/play, offense
Georgia State · 74Kennesaw State · 37
EPA/play, defense
Georgia State · 68Kennesaw State · 33
Success rate, offense
Georgia State · 77Kennesaw State · 54
Success rate, defense
Georgia State · 71Kennesaw State · 39
Explosive-play rate, offense
Georgia State · 48Kennesaw State · 6
Explosive-play rate, defense
Georgia State · 66Kennesaw State · 90
Rush EPA, offense
Georgia State · 50Kennesaw State · 46
Rush EPA, defense
Georgia State · 39Kennesaw State · 68
Pass EPA, offense
Georgia State · 92Kennesaw State · 31
Pass EPA, defense
Georgia State · 90Kennesaw State · 20

The series

Georgia State leads the series 1-0

1 meeting since 2018 · Georgia State won the last meeting

  • 2018Georgia State 24-20Kennesaw State lost 20-24 at Georgia State. Chance to win started at 50%, low 10%, high 88%.

Each line is Kennesaw State’s chance to win through that meeting.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Georgia State fans are in a better mood than Kennesaw State fans (99th vs 19th among FBS fanbases), even with Kennesaw State favored.

50-50Model 65% · Line 73%Kennesaw State fans · 19thGeorgia State fans · 99thGeorgia StateKennesaw State

Kennesaw State favored by 7.5 · Total 55.5

How games like this usually go

Kennesaw State by 7.5, on the usual path until Q1 5:29

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 385 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 2 points toward Georgia State.

opened −9.5now −7.5

The total rose 5 points.

opened 50.5now 55.5

Spread: −9.5 → −7.5 · Total: 50.5 → 55.5

The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds

Weather at kickoff

Hot and dry. Feels like 85° at kickoff.

Georgia State at Kennesaw State · Saturday, Sept. 12, 2026 · Fifth Third Stadium, Kennesaw

  • 85°feels like at kickoff
  • Dryno rain at kickoff
  • 88weather score, Mixed
  • 2ndbest of the day's 7 kickoff times

At kickoff, Sept. 12, 2026.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Kickoff times that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 7 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was the second best of the day's seven kickoff times. At Fifth Third Stadium that day, a 7:30 pm kickoff would have scored 93, against 88 at 7 pm.

  • noon: 82, Mixed
  • 1 pm: 73, Rough
  • 2 pm: 69, Rough
  • 3:30 pm: 61, Rough
  • 6 pm: 78, Mixed
  • 7 pm: 88, Mixed (this game)
  • 7:30 pm: 93, Comfortable

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

At kickoff, Sept. 12, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.

Home field

Kennesaw State is worth +5.8 points (±6.0) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 79th percentile.

62% at home, 22% on the road against FBS opponents (8-5 home, 5-18 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +5.1 at home vs. away over 34 games — inside the ±9.6 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 23 miles to get here.

Where next