Louisiana Tech leaped 33 spots in SP+ — 8-5 under Cumbie proves the ceiling is higher than Conference USA's historic-North-Louisiana-football identity suggests.
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Sun Belt · Sonny Cumbie, year 5 (20-33) · Joe Aillet Stadium · 28,019 · 13,108 avg in 2026
LastL 19–36 at Baylor · Sat Sep 19 · Kolbe Fields 1 sacks, 3 TFL, 9 tackles
Nextvs Army · Sat Oct 3 · time TBA · Joe Aillet Stadium · series 0-3, lost the last 3
Updated Tue Sep 22 · through week 3
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #88 | #261 | -44.5✓ | Northwestern State | W 80–6 120 | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #88 | #27 | +34.5✓ | @LSU | L 14–45 140 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #82 | #36 | +20.5✓ | @Baylor | L 19–36 146 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #91 | #40 | Army | ||||
| 6 | Oct 10 | Louisiana | ||||||
| 7 | Oct 17 | @UL Monroe | ||||||
| 8 | Oct 24 | Old Dominion | ||||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | @South Alabama | ||||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | @Troy | ||||||
| 11 | Nov 14 | Southern Miss | ||||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | Arkansas State | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | @Georgia Southern |
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19 | @Baylor | L 19–36 | 362 | 2 | 32:18 | +0.014 | 37.7% | 118.5% | Defense's roughest night |
| Sep 12 | @LSU | L 14–45 | 140 | 3 | 25:51 | -0.610 | 14.3% | 107.3% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 5 | Northwestern State | W 80–6 | 528 | 0 | 24:52 | +0.599 | 46.7% | 181.5% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Season average (3 games) | 343 | 1.7 | +0.001 | 32.9% | 135.8% | ||||
Game Week
11 days
until kickoff · vs Army · Sat Oct 3 · time TBA
Louisiana Tech is the little Ruston school that produced Terry Bradshaw and a national title — a program that doesn't chase glamour but quietly carries a pedigree most of its peers will never have.
Fans are tired of their program being treated as a footnote — they'll remind anyone who'll listen that the sport's most famous quarterback came from Ruston, and that the Bulldogs have a national…
The season in chapters
What fans said
Real posts from the day of the game, chosen by community score · usernames not shown
What it is like to watch them2025 · 8-5 · last season
✓ measured from 13 games · ranks are among Conference USA teams the same season
Recent form · last 10 games · incl. 2025
Mixed. 5-5 over the last 10, and lost the last two.
A lot of love coming in on this LSU team. Ever since LSU beat up Clemson, that’s been the case
Next Oct 3
vs Army · at home
✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style
Market outlook
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-09-22
the open questionwhere does it go from here?
Louisiana Tech leaped 33 spots in SP+ — 8-5 under Cumbie proves the ceiling is higher than Conference USA's historic-North-Louisiana-football identity suggests.
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Andrew Burnette sees a real spike in usage once the game is out of reach.
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Eli Finley is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
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Louisiana Tech leaped 33 spots in SP+ — the 8-5 record and Joe Aillet Stadium legacy suggest a return to prominence, but the 116th talent rank raises questions about sustaining.
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Outcome band · Louisiana Tech · 2026
Floor, base and ceiling come from the season-path projection, which plays out conference title games and the CFP — so a ceiling can run past 12 games.
Louisiana Tech enters 2025 rated No. 77 in SP+ (-1.3), up 33 spots from 2024. One of the bigger model jumps in the country — the tape moved faster than the consensus noticed. Preview coverage is split — believers and skeptics are reading the same data differently.
The 'the projection is underselling us' read -- fans betting the season beats the preview number.
The 'the model has seen the tape' counter -- efficiency ratings reward what a program has actually done, not hope.
This event was in 46 of 264 board posts (17%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
More in this tab
Louisiana Tech is the Conference USA program whose Terry Bradshaw 1968-1969 + 2014 C-USA West Division title + Skip Holtz era + Joe Aillet Stadium define what historic-North-Louisiana-football looks like.
Alonzo Jackson Jr.: 12 tackles · 3.5 TFL · 3 sacks at LSU
Top 1% tackles for loss game since 2021. at LSU (FBS) L 14-45.
Top 3 commits
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
TX leads the 2026 class with 10 commits. National footprint reaching 6 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
94 signees across 10 states, 2023-2026. LA leads the pull.
Miles from home · 2026 roster
The median Louisiana Tech player grew up 236 miles from campus.
Half this roster came from closer than that; half came from farther.
Straight-line distance from each player's listed hometown to Joe Aillet Stadium. Hometowns are placed at city-centroid precision, not street address — fine at this scale, but a player's true door-to-door number can differ by a few miles. 109 of 112 listed players have a geocoded hometown. Source: CFBD roster hometowns.
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
Fan confidence in a typical range for this program right now
58th percentile among FBS programs
29% of tipped/broken-up passes have turned into picks — running hot vs. the ~19% league average.
4 interceptions of 14 disrupted passes (10 deflected, 4 intercepted), 2026 only.
16 penalties committed, 26 drawn on opponents — netting a 109-yard field-position edge.
146 penalty yards committed vs. 255 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.