The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Sonny Cumbie

Followed Skip Holtz. Sonny Cumbie slid Louisiana Tech from Regional Program II to Regional Program III in 5 seasons.

Peak, then fade
21–34
2021–now · 2 stints
Texas TechLouisiana Tech
← all coaches

In his own words

Awaiting signal — no quotes collected from this staff yet this cycle.

Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerTEXAS TECHLOUISIANA TECHNational Programrespectable, streakyRegional Programthe building-block levelTexas Tech, 2021: 2-3, National Program II2021-0.1Louisiana Tech, 2022: 3-9, Regional Program III2022Louisiana Tech, 2023: 3-9, Regional Program III2023Louisiana Tech, 2024: 5-8, Regional Program IV2024Louisiana Tech, 2025: 8-5, Regional Program IV2025Louisiana Tech, 2026: in progress, Regional Program IV2026-8.2One point per coached season, in career order; dashed segments are program changes — spacing is not proportional to calendar time

Reached National Program in his 1st career season — faster than 41% of the 675 FBS coaches who have ever reached National Program (rank #1 of 675 by seasons-to-arrival).

Louisiana Tech, 5 seasons (active)
−8.2
Regional Program III → Regional Program IV.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

40%50%Texas Tech2021–2021– 0.0ptLouisiana Tech2022–2026▼ 11.7pt
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints
Louisiana Tech15.6pt#43 of 258 · more than most

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

Just 1–2 against Mike MacIntyre.

One-score games
4–11
26.7% · margin ≤8
vs. Blue Blood or better
0–2
0.0%
Buyout owed
$875,000 (est.)
bigger than 3% of FBS buyouts
The toughest matchup
vs. Mike MacIntyre1–2
3 meetings, 2022–2024
’22 L · blew a 10-pt lead’23 W · erased a 14-pt deficit’24 L
33% win rate across a real, 3-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.
Performance by opponent class
Blue Blood
0–2 0.0%
National Program
0–5 0.0%
Regional Program
11–19 36.7%

Coaching career

2022–now
Louisiana Techcaretaker
Regional Program II → Regional Program III
Sonny Cumbie slid Louisiana Tech from Regional Program II to Regional Program III in 5 seasons.

10th-best Louisiana Tech tenure of 11 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Underperforms his recruiting talent on offense and performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent
-18.3 pts
#172 of 208 · less than most
Defense vs. talent
+1.8 pts
#90 of 208 · a typical amount
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Skip Holtz (2013–2021).

Season20222023202420252026Trend
Record & result
Record3–93–95–88–50–0
Postseason——L bowlW bowl—
Recruiting rank#88#77#113#111#99
Style — pass rate
Pass rate52.052.646.437.040.4
Coordinators
OCScott Parr / Jake BrownScott Parr / Jake BrownScott Parr / Nathan YoungTony FranklinNathan Young
DCScott PowerScott PowerJeremiah Johnson / Jeff BurrisLuke OlsonLuke Olson
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense252034586
Defense924756987
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%51.451.041.837.041.7
Red-zone pass%52.046.836.430.9—
4th-down go%opp. territory38.647.128.135.3—
Roster construction · portal era

A typical amount of portal roster-building.

Portal arrivals
60
2.9★ avg rating
Portal departures
113
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-53
#102 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in

Typical size for position, once adjusted for position mix.

A typical class-year mix of incoming transfers.

Avg. size (raw)
6′2″, 228 lbs
across 41 of 60 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+5.3 lbs
#84 of 255 · a typical amount
Avg. class year
Jr
#129 of 255 · a typical amount
Top states: TX (10), LA (8), FL (6), CA (5), MS (4)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
53.7
position-weighted
Talent lost
55.4
position-weighted
Net
-1.7
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Hank Bachmeier (QB) from Boise State
Biggest loss: Hank Bachmeier (QB) to Wake Forest
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: co-Scott Parr / co-Jake Brown → co-Scott Parr / co-Nathan Young · 2024
20th pct3rd pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 51.0% → 41.8% (-9.1 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 26% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: co-Scott Parr / co-Nathan Young → Tony Franklin · 2025
3rd pct45th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 41.8% → 37.0% (-4.8 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 54% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: Tony Franklin → Nathan Young · 2026
45th pct86th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 37.0% → 41.7% (+4.6 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 64% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
DC: Scott Power → Jeremiah Johnson / co-Jeff Burris · 2024
24th pct75th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
DC: Jeremiah Johnson / co-Jeff Burris → Luke Olson · 2025
75th pct69th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
Roster size, by position
Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)
Quarterback
221 lbs
6′4″ avg · #153 of 767 · more than most
Running back
203 lbs
5′10″ avg · #568 of 791 · a typical amount
Wide receiver
191 lbs
6′0″ avg · #493 of 791 · a typical amount
Tight end
243 lbs
6′5″ avg · #470 of 731 · a typical amount
Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters
Interior line
310 lbs
6′4″ avg · #361 of 779 · a typical amount
D-line
274 lbs
6′3″ avg · #594 of 753 · less than most
Linebacker
220 lbs
6′1″ avg · #707 of 772 · less than most
Cornerback
191 lbs
6′1″ avg · #349 of 771 · a typical amount
Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Buys Safety via the portal
67%
#27 of 218 stints
Grows Tight end from high school
80%
#146 of 188 stints
Grows Quarterback from high school
71%
#162 of 206 stints
Postseason detail2024: Lost to Army 6–27 Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl2025: Beat Coastal Carolina 23–14 Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl

1 player-season honored (All-America / national award): Jakari Foster (2025)

19–31
2021–2021
Texas Techcaretaker
National Program II → National Program II
Sonny Cumbie held Texas Tech at National Program II for 1 season.

13th-best Texas Tech tenure of 15 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Outperforms his recruiting talent on offense and underperforms his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent
+14.4 pts
#50 of 208 · more than most
Defense vs. talent
-36.4 pts
#202 of 208 · less than most
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Succeeded by Joey McGuire (2022–2026).

Roster construction · portal era

A typical amount of portal roster-building.

Portal arrivals
11
2.9★ avg rating
Portal departures
16
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-5
#112 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in

Brings in bigger-than-position-typical players than most.

Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.

Avg. size (raw)
6′2″, 217 lbs
across 7 of 11 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+11.9 lbs
#2 of 255 · more than most
Avg. class year
Sr
#1 of 255 · more than most
Top states: FL (2), CA (1), TX (1), NC (1), TN (1)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
31.4
position-weighted
Talent lost
43.6
position-weighted
Net
-12.2
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Malik Dunlap (CB) from NC State
Biggest loss: Alan Bowman (QB) to Michigan
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Postseason detail2021: Beat Mississippi State 34–7 AutoZone Liberty Bowl

4 NFL Draft picks: Zech McPhearson (2021), Jack Anderson (2021), Erik Ezukanma (2022), Dawson Deaton (2022)

2–3
How to read this. Bands and archetypes come from the Zeitgeist List’s season-by-season stature model, and only apply once a stint clears 3 coached seasons in our ledger — a newer stint shows its real record with no stature judgment yet.