Louisiana Tech beats South Alabama 35-20
Team pages: Louisiana Tech · South Alabama
Louisiana Tech beat South Alabama 35-20. Share this game
We had Louisiana Tech favored. It won.
Next: Louisiana Tech at Troy, Sat Nov 7 · 4:00 PM ET · Louisiana Tech favored by 4.5
Next: South Alabama at Louisiana, Sat Nov 7 · 5:00 PM ET · South Alabama underdog by 8.5
How it swung
The turning point: Burnette 4-yd TD run, ties it 7-7 (Q1, 8:12). Louisiana Tech went from 38% to 58% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Louisiana Tech a 69% chance, and the closing betting line (Louisiana Tech was a 6-point favorite) put it at 69%.
Louisiana Tech won by 15, after dipping to 35% in the first quarter.
South Alabama never had better than a 65% chance.
Louisiana Tech 35-20 South Alabama
Louisiana Tech wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.South Alabama 20-35 Louisiana TechSouth Alabama lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The two plays that swung it
- 1Q1 8:12Burnette 4-yd TD run, ties it 7-7Louisiana Tech 38% → 58% (+20)
- 2Q2 13:03Baker 22-yd TD pass to Calwise, ties it 14-14Louisiana Tech 42% → 59% (+17)
The two plays that swung it
- 1Q1 8:12Burnette 4-yd TD run, ties it 7-7South Alabama 62% → 42% (−20)
- 2Q2 13:03Baker 22-yd TD pass to Calwise, ties it 14-14South Alabama 58% → 41% (−17)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Louisiana Tech -6), at 52% for Louisiana Tech (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.Every drive
Louisiana Tech scored on 5 of its 13 drives; South Alabama on 3 of its 12.
Louisiana Tech’s drives are teal, South Alabama’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From South Alabama’s side
South Alabama’s best moment: Phillips 11-yd TD run, cuts it to 21-20 (Q2 6:47). It lifted South Alabama’s win chance by 15 points.
What it cost
Louisiana Tech’s chance to win the conference rose from 22% to 29%.
Win the conference
Before the game (October 30, 2026) → after this result alone, in our model. Other games that weekend move it too, so the team page may differ.
Louisiana Tech plays at Troy on Sat Nov 7 with a 29% chance to win the conference. South Alabama plays at Louisiana on Sat Nov 7 with a 2% chance to win the conference.
Box score
Louisiana Tech 35, South Alabama 20
Louisiana Tech covered −6 by 9. The total, 55, stayed under 57.5.
| Team totals | Louisiana Tech | South Alabama |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 315 | 397 |
| Passing | 11 of 17, 194 yds | 14 of 31, 192 yds |
| Rushing | 40 for 121 yds | 44 for 205 yds |
| First downs | 16 | 24 |
| Third down | 2 of 10 | 6 of 14 |
| Fourth down | 0 of 1 | 1 of 4 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 2 |
| Penalties | 4 for 29 yds | 12 for 100 yds |
| Time of possession | 26:37 | 33:23 |
Louisiana Tech leaders
- Passing Blake Baker 10 of 16, 167 yds, 3 TD
- Rushing Rayshun Hurt 6 for 40 yds; Blake Baker 16 for 35 yds
- Receiving Marcus Calwise Jr. 3 for 68 yds, 2 TD; Rayshun Hurt 1 for 67 yds
South Alabama leaders
- Passing Jared Hollins 14 of 31, 192 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Rushing PJ Martin 12 for 82 yds; Keenan Phillips 11 for 62 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving Anthony Eager 7 for 102 yds, 2 TD; Rod Gibbs 1 for 22 yds
No rain and calm
81° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 11 mph from the east-southeast, mostly across the field, gusts to 22
The usual here around this date is 65°, with about 7 in 10 games between 52° and 73°.
Game-day temperatures at Hancock Whitney Stadium
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
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Where this weather comes from
Measured at Mobile/bates Field, 3.2 miles away, and Mobile Downtown airport, 8.8 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
Louisiana Tech · 5-2
Rated 88th in our preseason ratings, 55th now, up 33 spots.
Three straight wins, one over ranked or top-40 competition.
Last three games
South Alabama · 4-3
Rated 60th in our preseason ratings, 94th now.
2-1 in its last three, including a 7-point win over Arkansas State as a 3-point underdog.
Week by week
South Alabama
- Wk 3Wvs Ohio41-36
- Wk 4Lat Kentucky21-45
- Wk 5Wvs UL Monroe52-35
- Wk 6Wat Arkansas State56-49
- Wk 8Lat Marshall13-20
Louisiana Tech
- Wk 3Lat Baylor19-36
- Wk 5Wvs Army31-29
- Wk 6Wvs Louisiana32-31
- Wk 7Wat UL Monroe24-0
- Wk 8Wvs Old Dominion26-0
Power rating by week
Louisiana Tech is rated 3.9 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Louisiana Tech’s passing EPA against South Alabama, 67 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Louisiana Tech’s passing EPA against South Alabama’s defense
Louisiana Tech offense, 80th percentile · South Alabama defense, 13th
Louisiana Tech’s explosive plays against South Alabama’s defense
Louisiana Tech offense, 72nd percentile · South Alabama defense, 14th
Louisiana Tech’s EPA/play against South Alabama’s defense
Louisiana Tech offense, 54th percentile · South Alabama defense, 3rd
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
Louisiana Tech leads the series 2-1
3 meetings since 2017 · South Alabama won the last meeting
- 2022South Alabama 38-14
- 2018Louisiana Tech 30-26
- 2017Louisiana Tech 34-16
Each line is South Alabama’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Louisiana Tech fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (86th percentile among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
Louisiana Tech favored by 6 · Total 57.5
How games like this usually go
Louisiana Tech by 6, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 426 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 2.5 points toward Louisiana Tech.
The total rose 1 point.
Spread: +3.5 → +6 · Total: 56.5 → 57.5
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
South Alabama is worth +3.4 points (±3.9) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 36th percentile.
45% at home, 33% on the road against FBS opponents (20-24 home, 17-35 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -0.2 at home vs. away over 104 games — inside the ±5.9 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 292 miles to get here.
Where next
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.
- South Alabama5th2-1
- Louisiana Tech2nd3-0