Louisiana Tech beats Louisiana 32-31

Team pages: Louisiana · Louisiana Tech

Louisiana4-231
Louisiana Tech3-232Final
Sat, Oct 10 · Joe Aillet Stadium, Ruston, La. · Crowd 20,035ESPN+

Louisiana Tech beat Louisiana 32-31 after its win chance fell to 4%.

Winners have been down to 4% or less in about 1 of every 35 games since 2018.

We had Louisiana favored. Louisiana Tech won.

Next: Louisiana beat Troy 33-6, Sat Oct 17

Next: Louisiana Tech beat UL Monroe 24-0, Sat Oct 17

How it swung

The turning point: Baker 7-yd TD pass to Finley, Louisiana Tech goes ahead 32-31 (Q4, 0:46). Louisiana Tech went from 48% to 87% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Louisiana Tech a 29% chance, and the closing betting line (Louisiana Tech was a 3-point favorite) put it at 60%.

FinalLouisiana Tech 32-31 LouisianaLouisiana Tech wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%10%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q473% at halfLouisianaLowest 4%Won32-3112−23+39Scores
50%10%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q473% at halfLouisianaLowest 4%Won32-3112Scores
50%10%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q427% at halfLouisianaHigh 96%Lost31-3212+23−39Scores
50%10%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q427% at halfLouisianaHigh 96%Lost31-3212Scores

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q4 11:34Winfield 45-yd TD pass to Wade, Louisiana leads 31-19Louisiana Tech 33% → 10% (−23)
  2. 2Q4 0:46Baker 7-yd TD pass to Finley, Louisiana Tech goes ahead 32-31Louisiana Tech 48% → 87% (+39)

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q4 11:34Winfield 45-yd TD pass to Wade, Louisiana leads 31-19Louisiana 67% → 90% (+23)
  2. 2Q4 0:46Baker 7-yd TD pass to Finley, Louisiana Tech goes ahead 32-31Louisiana 52% → 13% (−39)
Louisiana Tech’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Louisiana Tech -3), at 66% for Louisiana Tech (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Louisiana Tech’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

  1. Q2, 10:45Winfield 7-yd TD runties it 7-7Q2, 10:45 · Louisiana Tech 7, Louisiana 7▼10%Louisiana Tech’s chance to win, 73% to 63%▼10%Louisiana Tech’s chance to win, 73% to 63%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  2. Q2, 0:30Winfield intercepted by Carter at the Louisiana Tech 38returned 22 yardsQ2, 0:30 · Louisiana Tech 13, Louisiana 10▲5%Louisiana Tech’s chance to win, 69% to 74%▲5%Louisiana Tech’s chance to win, 69% to 74%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  3. Q3, 9:51Garner 20-yd TD runLouisiana goes ahead 17-13Q3, 9:51 · Louisiana Tech 13, Louisiana 17▼13%Louisiana Tech’s chance to win, 59% to 46%▼13%Louisiana Tech’s chance to win, 59% to 46%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  4. Q3, 5:01Snider run for a 4-yd lossfumblesQ3, 5:01 · Louisiana Tech 13, Louisiana 17▼16%Louisiana Tech’s chance to win, 57% to 41%▼16%Louisiana Tech’s chance to win, 57% to 41%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  5. Q3, 1:50Chaney 25-yd TD runLouisiana leads 24-13Q3, 1:50 · Louisiana Tech 13, Louisiana 24▼13%Louisiana Tech’s chance to win, 32% to 19%▼13%Louisiana Tech’s chance to win, 32% to 19%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  6. Q4, 13:01Mickens 3-yd TD runcuts it to 24-19Q4, 13:01 · Louisiana Tech 19, Louisiana 24▲12%Louisiana Tech’s chance to win, 21% to 33%▲12%Louisiana Tech’s chance to win, 21% to 33%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  7. Q4, 11:34Winfield 45-yd TD pass to WadeLouisiana leads 31-19Q4, 11:34 · Louisiana Tech 19, Louisiana 31▼23%Louisiana Tech’s chance to win, 33% to 10%▼23%Louisiana Tech’s chance to win, 33% to 10%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  8. Q4, 3:44Baker 12-yd TD runcuts it to 31-26Q4, 3:44 · Louisiana Tech 26, Louisiana 31▲12%Louisiana Tech’s chance to win, 10% to 22%▲12%Louisiana Tech’s chance to win, 10% to 22%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  9. Q4, 0:27Winfield intercepted by Mcrae at the ULL45Q4, 0:27 · Louisiana Tech 32, Louisiana 3132-31score after the play32-31score after the playWatch from this playSun Belt Conference

Every drive

Louisiana Tech scored on 5 of its 12 drives; Louisiana on 5 of its 11.

Louisiana Tech’s drives are teal, Louisiana’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Louisiana: Fumble, from 75 yards out to 13FumbleLouisiana Tech: Punt, from 87 yards out to 67PuntLouisiana: Punt, from 80 yards out to 57PuntLouisiana Tech: Touchdown, from 85 yards out to 0TouchdownQ2Louisiana: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownLouisiana Tech: Fumble, from 76 yards out to 75FumbleLouisiana: Field goal, from 25 yards out to 12Field goalLouisiana Tech: Touchdown, from 70 yards out to 0TouchdownLouisiana: Interception, from 74 yards out to 49InterceptionLouisiana Tech: Missed field goal, from 40 yards out to 32Missed FGQ3Louisiana Tech: Punt, from 73 yards out to 53PuntLouisiana: Touchdown, from 91 yards out to 0TouchdownLouisiana Tech: Fumble, from 76 yards out to 21FumbleLouisiana: Touchdown, from 79 yards out to 0TouchdownLouisiana Tech: Touchdown, from 76 yards out to 0TouchdownQ4Louisiana: Touchdown, from 70 yards out to 0TouchdownLouisiana Tech: Punt, from 75 yards out to 57PuntLouisiana: Punt, from 80 yards out to 78PuntLouisiana Tech: Touchdown, from 63 yards out to 0TouchdownLouisiana: Punt, from 75 yards out to 70PuntLouisiana Tech: Touchdown, from 66 yards out to 0TouchdownLouisiana: Interception, from 75 yards out to 75InterceptionLouisiana Tech: End of game, from 40 yards out to 41End of game

From Louisiana’s side

Louisiana’s best moment: Winfield 45-yd TD pass to Wade, Louisiana leads 31-19 (Q4 11:34). It lifted Louisiana’s win chance by 23 points.

The winner fell to 4%.

What it cost

Louisiana’s chance to make the playoff fell from 2% to 1%.

Make the playoff

Louisiana · lost2% → ▼1%
Louisiana Tech · won0% → 0%

Win the conference

Louisiana · lost17% → ▼11%17%▼ 11%
Louisiana Tech · won5% → ▲7%5%▲ 7%

Before the game (October 9, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

Louisiana Tech 32, Louisiana 31

Louisiana covered +3 by 2. The total, 63, went over 48.5.

LouisianaLouisiana TechTotal yardsLouisiana 399Louisiana Tech 485399485Passing yardsLouisiana 239Louisiana Tech 338239338Rushing yardsLouisiana 160Louisiana Tech 147160147First downsLouisiana 22Louisiana Tech 282228TurnoversLouisiana 3Louisiana Tech 232Time of possessionLouisiana 26:42Louisiana Tech 33:1826:4233:18
Team totalsLouisianaLouisiana Tech
Total yards399485
Passing14 of 24, 239 yds33 of 43, 338 yds
Rushing34 for 160 yds34 for 147 yds
First downs2228
Third down5 of 117 of 13
Fourth down0 of 01 of 1
Turnovers32
Penalties3 for 16 yds8 for 81 yds
Time of possession26:4233:18

Louisiana leaders

  • Passing D'Wayne' Winfield 14 of 24, 239 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
  • Rushing JJ Garner 7 for 36 yds, 1 TD; Steven Blanco 8 for 36 yds
  • Receiving Kedarius Wade 2 for 88 yds, 1 TD; Shelton Sampson Jr. 2 for 60 yds

Louisiana Tech leaders

  • Passing Blake Baker 32 of 42, 319 yds, 3 TD
  • Rushing Andrew Burnette 14 for 85 yds; Blake Baker 11 for 35 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Eli Finley 9 for 114 yds, 2 TD; Talyn Shettron 8 for 102 yds

No rain through the game

79° at kickoff · no rain recorded

October game-day temperatures at Joe Aillet Stadium

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Louisiana Tech favoredLouisiana favored100%Win chanceLouisiana TechRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mphHourly wind only at this airport
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Louisiana Tech favoredLouisiana favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour2040Hourly wind only at this airport

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Fourth quarter, 0:46 left9:40 p.m.
Louisiana 31, Louisiana Tech 32 · Louisiana Tech 87% to win
no rain · 67°
Baker 7-yd TD pass to Finley, Louisiana Tech goes ahead 32-31

Jump to

Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Ruston airport, 4.1 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Louisiana · 4-1

Rated 35th in our preseason ratings, 35th now.

Three straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.

W 23-20 vs Arkansas State #140 of 668

won by 3 as a 4.5-point favorite

Louisiana won 23-20 vs Arkansas State. Chance to win started at 69%, low 50%, high better than 99%.

W 34-7 @ Charlotte #168 of 668

won by 27 as a 9.5-point favorite

Louisiana won 34-7 at Charlotte. Chance to win started at 70%, low 64%, high better than 99%.

W 21-14 vs UAB #63 of 668

won by 7 as a 7-point favorite

Louisiana won 21-14 vs UAB. Chance to win started at 68%, low 68%, high better than 99%.

L 30-49 @ USCTop 25 #26 of 668

lost by 19 as a 30.5-point underdog

Louisiana lost 30-49 at USC. Chance to win started at 2%, low under 1%, high 4%.

W 38-7 vs Lamar #143 of 668

won by 31 as a 20.5-point favorite

Louisiana won 38-7 vs Lamar. Chance to win started at 92%, low 90%, high better than 99%.

Last 4 games

Louisiana Tech · 2-2

Rated 88th in our preseason ratings, 85th now.

2-2 in its last 4 — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

W 31-29 vs Army #47 of 668

won by 2 as a 1.5-point favorite

Louisiana Tech won 31-29 vs Army. Chance to win started at 61%, low 49%, high better than 99%.

L 19-36 @ Baylor #35 of 668

lost by 17 as a 20.5-point underdog

Louisiana Tech lost 19-36 at Baylor. Chance to win started at 5%, low under 1%, high 9%.

L 14-45 @ LSUTop 25 #24 of 668

lost by 31 as a 34.5-point underdog

Louisiana Tech lost 14-45 at LSU. Chance to win started at 1%, low under 1%, high 4%.

W 80-6 vs Northwestern State #259 of 668

won by 74 as a 44.5-point favorite

Louisiana Tech won 80-6 vs Northwestern State. Chance to win started at 99%, low 98%, high better than 99%.

Week by week

Louisiana Tech

Wk 1: W 80-6 vs Northwestern State▲74Northwester…Wk 2: L 14-45 at LSU▼31LSUWk 3: L 19-36 at Baylor▼17BaylorWk 5: W 31-29 vs Army▲2Army
  • Wk 1Wvs Northwestern State80-6
  • Wk 2Lat LSU14-45
  • Wk 3Lat Baylor19-36
  • Wk 5Wvs Army31-29

Louisiana

Wk 1: W 38-7 vs Lamar▲31LamarWk 2: L 30-49 at USC▼19USCWk 3: W 21-14 vs UAB▲7UABWk 4: W 34-7 at Charlotte▲27CharlotteWk 5: W 23-20 vs Arkansas State▲3A. St.
  • Wk 1Wvs Lamar38-7
  • Wk 2Lat USC30-49
  • Wk 3Wvs UAB21-14
  • Wk 4Wat Charlotte34-7
  • Wk 5Wvs Arkansas State23-20

Power rating by week

Louisiana is rated 6.1 points ahead as of week 5. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

72-3Wk 0Wk 3Wk 5Louisiana TechLouisiana

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Louisiana Tech’s rushing EPA against Louisiana, 80 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

  1. Louisiana Tech’s rushing EPA against Louisiana’s defense

    80 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Louisiana Tech offense, 19th percentile · Louisiana defense, 99th

  2. Louisiana Tech’s EPA/play against Louisiana’s defense

    53 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Louisiana Tech offense, 39th percentile · Louisiana defense, 92nd

  3. Louisiana Tech’s explosive plays against Louisiana’s defense

    19 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Louisiana Tech offense, 81st percentile · Louisiana defense, 100th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

LouisianaLouisiana Tech
EPA/play, offense
Louisiana · 53Louisiana Tech · 39
EPA/play, defense
Louisiana · 92Louisiana Tech · 77
Success rate, offense
Louisiana · 55Louisiana Tech · 21
Success rate, defense
Louisiana · 55Louisiana Tech · 76
Explosive-play rate, offense
Louisiana · 40Louisiana Tech · 81
Explosive-play rate, defense
Louisiana · 100Louisiana Tech · 26
Rush EPA, offense
Louisiana · 76Louisiana Tech · 19
Rush EPA, defense
Louisiana · 99Louisiana Tech · 62
Pass EPA, offense
Louisiana · 49Louisiana Tech · 70
Pass EPA, defense
Louisiana · 50Louisiana Tech · 82

The series

Louisiana Tech leads the series 18-10-3

31 meetings since 1973 · Louisiana Tech has won the last 8

Louisiana Tech wonLouisiana won1973: Louisiana Tech by 231974: Louisiana Tech by 151975: Louisiana Tech by 101976: Louisiana by 51977: tie1978: Louisiana by 181979: Louisiana Tech by 171980: Louisiana by 181981: tie1982: Louisiana by 101983: Louisiana by 41984: Louisiana by 11985: Louisiana Tech by 11986: Louisiana Tech by 91988: Louisiana Tech by 31989: Louisiana Tech by 261990: Louisiana Tech by 141991: tie1992: Louisiana Tech by 141993: Louisiana by 41994: Louisiana by 101995: Louisiana by 71996: Louisiana by 61997: Louisiana Tech by 391998: Louisiana Tech by 631999: Louisiana Tech by 102000: Louisiana Tech by 342003: Louisiana Tech by 312004: Louisiana Tech by 42014: Louisiana Tech by 282015: Louisiana Tech by 2919732015
  • 2015Louisiana Tech 43-14
  • 2014Louisiana Tech 48-20
  • 2004Louisiana Tech 24-20
  • 2003Louisiana Tech 34-3
  • 2000Louisiana Tech 48-14

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Louisiana fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (97th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.

  • Model · 29%
  • Line · 60%
  • Louisiana Tech fans · 61st
  • Louisiana fans · 97th

Louisiana Tech favored by 3 · Total 48.5

How games like this usually go

Louisiana Tech by 3, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 252 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.

The market

The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Louisiana Tech is worth +7.5 points (±3.7) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 97th percentile.

61% at home, 27% on the road against FBS opponents (23-15 home, 14-37 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +3.4 at home vs. away over 97 games — inside the ±5.8 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 164 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

Full Sun Belt standings