Northwestern State · Next-Season Outcome Band
Fanbase Health Index · Northwestern State · medium confidence
FCS Program Prestige · Northwestern State2004
Four Southland titles
Northwestern State wins conference championships in 1988, 1997, 1998, and 2004
Northwestern State1-11Hope-Doping·Offseason
Northwestern State is the Natchitoches Demons that produced two NFL Rookies of the Year and won the Southland four times — and nobody in the Power Four cares, which is the entire story.
Title DroughtSince 2005 · 20 yrs
Fans here believe the chip is recognition: Northwestern State produced two NFL Rookies of the Year (a distinction unmatched by almost any other FCS program) and won the Southland four times, yet the p…
offseason · quiet
Approaching
22 days
until kickoff · vs Louisiana Christian · Fri Aug 28 · 00:00 UTC
The experience
Northwestern State is the Natchitoches Demons that produced two NFL Rookies of the Year and won the Southland four times — and nobody in the Power Four cares, which is the entire story.
The Demons bide their time.
Northwestern State · Next-Season Outcome Band
Floor / Base / Ceiling
Floor 0-12
Base 1-11
Ceiling 4-8
floor0-12Sub-.500 season. Playoff bid out of reach.
base1-11Mid-table finish. Conference title a stretch.
ceiling4-8Conference title race. Playoff bid in play.
Variance assumed at ±2 wins from last-season record. Replace with the season-path projection once preview data is built.
Recent Form · last 10 games
Hibernating
Zero of five. Reset territory.
Streak L10Last 5 · 0-5Last 10 · 0-10
The forecast
Opens Aug 28
vs Louisiana Christian · at home
Community pulse
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
The Pulse on Northwestern State
—
The Demons bide their time.
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Camp
Fall camp open — install + scrimmage cycle
ongoing
Kickoff
Season opener in 16 days
kickoff
"Go Demons."
— Northwestern State fanbase · recurring line
9 mentions · awaiting signal
Fanbase Health Index · Northwestern State · medium confidence
Stable (42)
DecliningStableGrowingSurging
On-Field — 1-11 (8% win rate)35
Volume — 9 effective signal-N49
Key stats — 2025 — FBS rank
Points/game#137 / 138 · 1st pct10.5
Pts allowed/game41.6
All 12 stats
Red Zone & Drive Efficiency (2014– , play-by-play derived)
Red zone trips
Team00.0/gm#165 / 167 · 2nd pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#5 / 5 · 20th pct
Opp131.1/gm#23 / 166 · 87th pct#1 / 70 · 100th pct#4 / 5 · 40th pct
Red zone score %
Team0.0%0.0%#165 / 167 · 2nd pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#5 / 5 · 20th pct
Opp84.6%84.6%#125 / 166 · 25th pct#57 / 70 · 20th pct#3 / 5 · 60th pct
Points / drive
Team00.0/gm#166 / 167 · 1st pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#5 / 5 · 20th pct
Opp5.30.4/gm#165 / 166 · 1st pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#5 / 5 · 20th pct
Yards / drive
Team10.60.9/gm#166 / 167 · 1st pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#5 / 5 · 20th pct
Opp45.23.8/gm#141 / 166 · 16th pct#64 / 70 · 10th pct#2 / 5 · 80th pct
Plays / drive
Team4.20.4/gm#166 / 167 · 1st pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#5 / 5 · 20th pct
Opp5.30.4/gm#1 / 166 · 100th pct#1 / 70 · 100th pct#3 / 5 · 60th pct
Three-and-out rate
Team46.2%46.2%#166 / 167 · 1st pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#1 / 5 · 100th pct
Opp8.7%8.7%#141 / 166 · 16th pct#67 / 70 · 6th pct#3 / 5 · 60th pct
FBS rankings · 2025 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
Player stats — 2025 season
No player stats logged for this program yet — stats appear once the season is underway.
Northwestern State · 2025 schedule & results1-11Balanced slateAverage opponent win rate 49% · 1 AP top-25 opponent on the schedule.
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 | #262 | #183 | +10.5 | Alcorn State | W 20–10 | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 6 | #248 | #16 | — | @Minnesota | L 0–66 100 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 13 | #240 | #52 | +48.5 | @Cincinnati | L 0–70 100 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 4 | Sep 20 | #253 | #178 | +10.5 | @Prairie View A&M | L 24–27 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| 6 | Oct 4 | #251 | #216 | +7 | East Texas A&M | L 10–40 | 1-4 | 0-1 |
| 7 | Oct 11 | #265 | #202 | +12.5 | @Houston Christian | L 17–20 | 1-5 | 0-2 |
| 8 | Oct 18 | #265 | #120 | +31 | @SE Louisiana | L 0–49 | 1-6 | 0-3 |
| 9 | Oct 25 | #266 | #149 | +24.5 | Lamar | L 14–41 | 1-7 | 0-4 |
| 10 | Nov 1 | #270 | #229 | +16.5 | @McNeese | L 3–50 | 1-8 | 0-5 |
| 11 | Nov 8 | #285 | #175 | +24.5 | Incarnate Word | L 3–38 | 1-9 | 0-6 |
| 12 | Nov 15 | #304 | #189 | +23.5 | @Nicholls | L 21–26 | 1-10 | 0-7 |
| 13 | Nov 21 | #296 | #77 | +37.5 | Stephen F. Austin | L 14–62 | 1-11 | 0-8 |
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)▼
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 21 | Stephen F. Austin | L 14–62 | — | — | — | -0.088 | 28.4% | 168.3% | Most explosive |
| Nov 15 | @Nicholls | L 21–26 | — | — | — | +0.132 | 36.5% | 129.3% | One-score loss |
| Nov 8 | Incarnate Word | L 3–38 | — | — | — | -0.112 | 30.6% | 93.7% | Blowout loss |
| Nov 1 | @McNeese | L 3–50 | — | — | — | -0.199 | 29.0% | 98.3% | Blowout loss |
| Oct 25 | Lamar | L 14–41 | — | — | — | +0.182 | 36.5% | 164.8% | |
| Oct 18 | @SE Louisiana | L 0–49 | — | — | — | -0.209 | 21.3% | 117.0% | Blowout loss |
| Oct 11 | @Houston Christian | L 17–20 | — | — | — | +0.150 | 43.7% | 110.1% | Best success rate |
| Oct 4 | East Texas A&M | L 10–40 | — | — | — | -0.152 | 26.4% | 111.3% | Blowout loss |
| Sep 20 | @Prairie View A&M | L 24–27 | — | — | — | +0.189 | 37.7% | 164.6% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 13 | @Cincinnati | L 0–70 | 102 | 1 | 39:15 | -0.231 | 20.4% | 77.6% | Defense's roughest night |
| Sep 6 | @Minnesota | L 0–66 | 42 | 4 | 20:32 | -0.488 | 10.8% | 66.6% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Aug 29 | Alcorn State | W 20–10 | — | — | — | -0.119 | 31.0% | 141.1% | Best defensive stand |
| Season average (12 games) | 72 | 2.5 | -0.079 | 29.4% | 120.2% | ||||
Schedule mirage
How much of Northwestern State's number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is -0.08; 2nd percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's -0.02. The widest gap came in week 2: -0.30 raw vs. -0.06 adjusted.
Home-Field Advantage · Northwestern State · 2018-present
Above-Average
23% home win rate vs 17% on the road. margin runs +4.8 better at home. Harry Turpin Stadium seats 15,971, averaging 46% full (7,320 attendance, 10 games reported).
Home8-26Away8-37
Venue texture
78°F average kickoff temp; 17% of games had measurable precipitation; 5 mph average wind.
Based on 24 home games with weather data.
FCS Program Prestige · Northwestern State
Mid-Major Contender
All-Time Record
112-232-2
since 1911 · 73 seasons · .323 win rate
HOME
64-75-2
AWAY
46-146
NEUTRAL
2-11
1910s
1920s
1930s
1940s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
Southland Standing · 2025
10th in the Southland
Northwestern State is 10th of 10 in the Southland at 0-8. The path to the title is steep — the focus is on playoff positioning and rivalry wins.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stephen F. Austin | 8-0 |
| 2 | SE Louisiana | 7-1 |
| 3 | Lamar | 5-3 |
| 4 | UT Rio Grande Valley | 5-3 |
| 5 | McNeese | 4-4 |
| 6 | Nicholls | 4-4 |
| 7 | East Texas A&M | 3-5 |
| 8 | Incarnate Word | 3-5 |
| 9 | Houston Christian | 1-7 |
| 10 | Northwestern State | 0-8 |
Program memory
What this program never forgets
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
r/cfb moments
232
[Postgame Thread] LSU Defeats Northwestern State 65-14
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