Stephen F. Austin · Next-Season Outcome Band
Fanbase Health Index · Stephen F. Austin · medium confidence
FCS Program Prestige · Stephen F. AustinThree straight Southland titles (2008-2010)
Stephen F. Austin wins consecutive Southland Conference championships, establishing the program's identity
Stephen F. Austin11-3Hope-Doping·Offseason
Stephen F. Austin is the Nacogdoches Lumberjacks that won three straight Southland titles (2008-2010) and disappeared, then returned in 2025 with an undefeated 8-0 conference record and a playoff bid — the program that promised to never be forgotten, and kept its word.
Title DroughtSince 2010 · 15 yrs
Fans here believe the chip is vindication: Stephen F. Austin was invisible for 15 years and returned to prove the program's 2008-2010 legacy was real. The 2025 season is proof that Nacogdoches footbal…
offseason · quiet
Approaching
23 days
until kickoff · at McNeese · Sat Aug 29 · 23:00 UTC
The experience
Stephen F. Austin is the Nacogdoches Lumberjacks that won three straight Southland titles (2008-2010) and disappeared, then returned in 2025 with an undefeated 8-0 conference record and a playoff bid — the program that promised to never be forgotten, and kept its word.
The Lumberjacks keep the faith.
Stephen F. Austin · Next-Season Outcome Band
Floor / Base / Ceiling
Floor 9-3
Base 11-1
Ceiling 12-0
floor9-3Competitive but likely outside the at-large field.
base11-1Conference title contender. Playoff bid realistic.
ceiling12-0Conference title + deep playoff run.
Variance assumed at ±2 wins from last-season record. Replace with the season-path projection once preview data is built.
Recent Form · last 10 games
Warming
Four of five. The board favors this trend.
Streak L1Last 5 · 4-1Last 10 · 9-1
The forecast
Opens Aug 29
vs McNeese · away
Community pulse
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
The Pulse on Stephen F. Austin
—
The Lumberjacks keep the faith.
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Camp
Fall camp open — install + scrimmage cycle
ongoing
Kickoff
Season opener in 16 days
kickoff
"Go Lumberjacks."
— Stephen F. Austin fanbase · recurring line
3 mentions · awaiting signal
Fanbase Health Index · Stephen F. Austin · medium confidence
Growing (57)
DecliningStableGrowingSurging
On-Field — 11-3 (79% win rate)73
Volume — 3 effective signal-N40
Player stats — 2025 season
No player stats logged for this program yet — stats appear once the season is underway.
Stephen F. Austin · 2025 schedule & results11-3Soft slateAverage opponent win rate 43% · 1 AP top-25 opponent on the schedule.
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 | #123 | #40 | +23.5 | @Houston | L 0–27 131 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 7 | #99 | #134 | -2.5 | @Abilene Christian | L 20–28 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 14 | #111 | #355 | — | Sul Ross State | W 63–0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 4 | Sep 21 | #127 | #202 | -10.5 | Cal Poly | W 35–17 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| 5 | Sep 28 | #127 | #180 | -13.5 | McNeese | W 34–17 | 3-2 | 1-0 |
| 6 | Oct 4 | #125 | #122 | — | @Incarnate Word | W 31–17 | 4-2 | 2-0 |
| 8 | Oct 18 | #117 | #212 | -13.5 | Nicholls | W 34–7 | 5-2 | 3-0 |
| 9 | Oct 25 | #98 | #178 | -14 | @East Texas A&M | W 31–21 | 6-2 | 4-0 |
| 10 | Nov 1 | #102 | #115 | -10 | UT Rio Grande Valley | W 41–17 | 7-2 | 5-0 |
| 11 | Nov 8 | #85 | #255 | -24.5 | @Houston Christian | W 50–3 | 8-2 | 6-0 |
| 12 | Nov 15 | #76 | #150 | -11 | Lamar | W 26–15 | 9-2 | 7-0 |
| 13 | Nov 21 | #77 | #296 | -37.5 | @Northwestern State | W 62–14 | 10-2 | 8-0 |
| Conference Championship | ||||||||
| 15 | Dec 6 | #72 | #98 | — | Abilene Christian | W 41–34 | 11-2 | 8-0 |
| 16 | Dec 13 | #71 | #48 | +15.5 | @Montana State | L 28–44 | 11-3 | 8-0 |
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)▼
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 13 | @Montana State | L 28–44 | — | — | — | +0.136 | 47.0% | 97.8% | |
| Dec 6 | Abilene Christian | W 41–34 | — | — | — | +0.309 | 47.5% | 130.8% | Defense's roughest night |
| Nov 21 | @Northwestern State | W 62–14 | — | — | — | +0.711 | 65.2% | 138.7% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Nov 15 | Lamar | W 26–15 | — | — | — | +0.058 | 35.4% | 114.8% | |
| Nov 8 | @Houston Christian | W 50–3 | — | — | — | +0.201 | 42.0% | 124.0% | Blowout win |
| Nov 1 | UT Rio Grande Valley | W 41–17 | — | — | — | +0.254 | 50.0% | 113.6% | |
| Oct 25 | @East Texas A&M | W 31–21 | — | — | — | -0.062 | 39.6% | 122.6% | |
| Oct 18 | Nicholls | W 34–7 | — | — | — | +0.286 | 52.7% | 108.3% | |
| Oct 4 | @Incarnate Word | W 31–17 | — | — | — | +0.175 | 40.0% | 137.9% | |
| Sep 28 | McNeese | W 34–17 | — | — | — | +0.197 | 34.4% | 150.8% | |
| Sep 21 | Cal Poly | W 35–17 | — | — | — | +0.078 | 40.0% | 121.6% | |
| Sep 14 | Sul Ross State | W 63–0 | — | — | — | +0.670 | 57.4% | 153.6% | Most explosive |
| Sep 7 | @Abilene Christian | L 20–28 | — | — | — | +0.009 | 37.0% | 104.1% | One-score loss |
| Aug 29 | @Houston | L 0–27 | 144 | 2 | 25:11 | -0.264 | 18.0% | 114.2% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Season average (14 games) | 144 | 2.0 | +0.197 | 43.3% | 123.8% | ||||
Schedule mirage
How much of Stephen F. Austin's number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.20; 86th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.07. The widest gap came in week 1: -0.26 raw vs. -0.02 adjusted.
Home-Field Advantage · Stephen F. Austin · 2018-present
Elite
66% home win rate vs 36% on the road. margin runs +20.4 better at home. Homer Bryce Stadium seats 14,575, averaging 39% full (5,711 attendance, 11 games reported).
Home28-14Away17-29
Venue texture
77°F average kickoff temp; 3% of games had measurable precipitation; 5 mph average wind.
Based on 32 home games with weather data.
FCS Program Prestige · Stephen F. Austin
Mid-Major Contender
All-Time Record
124-151
since 1925 · 43 seasons · .450 win rate
HOME
74-52
AWAY
46-86
NEUTRAL
4-13
1920s
1930s
1940s
1950s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
Southland Standing · 2025
1st in the Southland
Stephen F. Austin sits at the top of the Southland at 8-0. Everyone else is chasing.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stephen F. Austin | 8-0 |
| 2 | SE Louisiana | 7-1 |
| 3 | Lamar | 5-3 |
| 4 | UT Rio Grande Valley | 5-3 |
| 5 | McNeese | 4-4 |
| 6 | Nicholls | 4-4 |
| 7 | East Texas A&M | 3-5 |
| 8 | Incarnate Word | 3-5 |
| 9 | Houston Christian | 1-7 |
| 10 | Northwestern State | 0-8 |
Program memory
What this program never forgets
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
2025 undefeated Southland season (8-0)
Stephen F. Austin returns from 15-year drought to win the Southland Conference with an undefeated 8-0 league record
Moment of the Year · Stephen F. Austin · 2025
Moment of the Year · Stephen F. Austin · 2025Won 63-0 vs Sul Ross State
Week 3 of 2025. A statement margin. Recruiting boards re-rendered overnight.
FCS → NFL Pipeline
2023–2026
FCS → NFL PipelineSteady
2 picks last 5 cycles. Consistent FCS presence on draft boards.
2
picks · last 5 yrs
#163
Charles Demmings
Cornerback · 2026 · Minnesota
#166
BJ Thompson
Outside Linebacker · 2023 · Kansas City
#177 all-time in draft picksthe talent factory →
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