Stephen F. Austin at Abilene Christian
How they got here
Last two games
Stephen F. Austin · 2-0
Picked #96 in the preseason · now #119.
Two straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.
W 44–7 vs East Texas A&M #222 of 669
won by 37 as a 23.5-point favorite
W 38–27 @ McNeese #195 of 669
won by 11 as a 12.5-point favorite
Last two games
Abilene Christian · 0-2
Picked #112 in the preseason · now #98 — better than expected.
Two straight losses.
L 10–33 @ Texas TechTop 25 #6 of 669
lost by 23 as a 44.5-point underdog
L 14–21 @ Lamar #129 of 669
lost by 7 as a 7.5-point favorite
What’s at stake
Stephen F. Austin
- Stephen F. Austin controls first place in Southland with 7 games left.
- Stephen F. Austin is coming off a 19-point win.
Abilene Christian
- Abilene Christian needs 6 more wins in the final 9 to reach bowl eligibility.
- Abilene Christian is still shaking off a 19-point loss.
The series
Stephen F. Austin leads the series 10-5
15 meetings since 2014 · Stephen F. Austin has won the last 2
- 2026Stephen F. Austin 26–7
- 2025Stephen F. Austin 41–34
- 2025Abilene Christian 28–20
- 2024Stephen F. Austin 32–19
- 2023Abilene Christian 34–27
The line, and the room
The model and the market are in lockstep on Abilene Christian’s chances here.
Home +3 · O/U 50.5
Conditions
97°F · 15 mph wind · Clear
Abilene Christian is worth +18.2 points (±18.5) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 100th percentile.
50% at home, 11% on the road against FBS opponents (2–2 home, 2–16 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +5.1 at home vs. away over 47 games — inside the ±7.8 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 302 miles to get here.
Stephen F. Austin 26 – Abilene Christian 7
Missed — picked Abilene Christian, Stephen F. Austin won.
Recent games
Abilene Christian
- Wk 1Lat Lamar14-21
- Wk 1Lat Texas Tech10-33
Stephen F. Austin
- Wk 1Wat McNeese38-27
- Wk 1Wvs East Texas A&M44-7
Trajectory
The pregame pick missed: Stephen F. Austin beat Abilene Christian 26-7.