Lamar upsets Abilene Christian 21-14
Team pages: Abilene Christian · Lamar
Lamar beat Abilene Christian 21-14 as a 7.5-point underdog. Share this game
How it swung
The turning point: McCown 5-yd TD pass to Driskell, Lamar leads 21-7 (Q4, 14:53). Lamar went from 72% to 89% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Lamar a 50% chance, and the closing betting line (Lamar was a 7.5-point underdog) put it at 27%.
Lamar 21-14 Abilene Christian
Lamar wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Abilene Christian 14-21 LamarAbilene Christian lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The two plays that swung it
- 1Q4 14:53McCown 5-yd TD pass to Driskell, Lamar leads 21-7Lamar 72% → 89% (+17)
- 2Q4 0:144th and 3Black 2-yd run, turnover on downsLamar 82% → 97% (+15)
The two plays that swung it
- 1Q4 14:53McCown 5-yd TD pass to Driskell, Lamar leads 21-7Abilene Christian 28% → 11% (−17)
- 2Q4 0:144th and 3Black 2-yd run, turnover on downsAbilene Christian 18% → 3% (−15)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Abilene Christian -7.5), at 42% for Lamar (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.Every drive
Lamar scored on 3 of its 12 drives; Abilene Christian on 2 of its 12.
Lamar’s drives are teal, Abilene Christian’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From Abilene Christian’s side
Abilene Christian’s best moment: Black 20-yd pass to Driver (Q2 8:40). It lifted Abilene Christian’s win chance by 10 points.
Box score
Lamar 21, Abilene Christian 14
Lamar covered +7.5 by 14.5. The total, 35, stayed under 49.5.
Abilene Christian leaders
- Passing John David Black 15 of 25, 142 yds, 2 TD
- Rushing Alex Broome 14 for 75 yds; Rovaughn Banks Jr. 8 for 50 yds
- Receiving Cristian Driver 5 for 56 yds, 1 TD; Romelo Boykin 5 for 54 yds, 1 TD
Lamar leaders
- Passing Aiden McCown 17 of 32, 183 yds, 3 TD
- Rushing Parker Jenkins 14 for 56 yds; Aiden McCown 7 for 17 yds
- Receiving Blake Thomas 3 for 44 yds, 1 TD; Davin Driskell 5 for 34 yds, 2 TD
Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games · 2025 season
Abilene Christian · 9-5
Rated 112th in our preseason ratings.
L 34-41 @ Stephen F. Austin #70 of 667
W 38-20 vs Lamar #157 of 667
won by 18 as a 12.5-point favorite
W 49-28 @ Central Arkansas #200 of 667
won by 21 as a 9.5-point favorite
W 17-10 @ Eastern Kentucky #192 of 667
won by 7 as a 9-point favorite
W 31-10 vs Utah Tech #231 of 667
won by 21 as a 20.5-point favorite
W 31-28 vs Tarleton State #72 of 667
won by 3 as a 13.5-point underdog
L 24-31 @ Southern Utah #157 of 667
lost by 7 as a 3-point favorite
W 30-13 @ West Georgia #172 of 667
won by 17 as a 1.5-point underdog
W 52-23 vs North Alabama #223 of 667
won by 29 as an 11.5-point favorite
L 7-38 @ Incarnate Word #134 of 667
lost by 31 as a 2-point underdog
W 45-31 vs Austin Peay #110 of 667
won by 14 as a 2-point underdog
L 21-42 @ TCUTop 25 #23 of 667
lost by 21 as a 41.5-point underdog
W 28-20 vs Stephen F. Austin #127 of 667
won by 8 as a 2.5-point underdog
L 7-35 @ Tulsa #136 of 667
lost by 28 as a 5.5-point underdog
Last three games · 2025 season
Lamar · 8-5
Rated 149th in our preseason ratings.
L 20-38 @ Abilene Christian #95 of 667
lost by 18 as a 12.5-point underdog
L 19-21 vs McNeese #201 of 667
lost by 2 as a 13.5-point favorite
L 15-26 @ Stephen F. Austin #78 of 667
lost by 11 as an 11-point underdog
W 14-12 vs SE Louisiana #101 of 667
won by 2 as an 8-point underdog
L 17-24 @ Incarnate Word #182 of 667
lost by 7 as a 2.5-point underdog
W 41-14 @ Northwestern State #267 of 667
won by 27 as a 24.5-point favorite
W 23-21 vs UT Rio Grande Valley #163 of 667
won by 2 as a 3.5-point favorite
W 33-23 @ East Texas A&M #187 of 667
won by 10 as a 7.5-point favorite
W 24-17 vs Nicholls #216 of 667
won by 7 as a 3.5-point favorite
W 35-32 vs Central Arkansas #187 of 667
won by 3 as a 6.5-point favorite
W 31-7 @ Texas Southern #232 of 667
won by 24 as a 9.5-point favorite
W 20-13 vs South Dakota #120 of 667
won by 7 as a 17-point underdog
L 0-51 @ North TexasTop 25 #103 of 667
lost by 51 as a 27.5-point underdog
The series
The series is tied 4-4
8 meetings since 2014 · Abilene Christian has won the last 4
- 2025Abilene Christian 38-20
- 2022Abilene Christian 28-14
- 2021Abilene Christian 24-17
- 2021Abilene Christian 56-0
- 2019Lamar 27-24
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on Lamar’s chances here.
Abilene Christian favored by 7.5 · Total 49.5
How games like this usually go
Abilene Christian by 7.5, on the usual path until Q2 1:54
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 385 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.
The market
The books’ cut: 5.3%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Lamar is worth +14.3 points (±18.3) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 100th percentile.
50% at home, 9% on the road against FBS opponents (1-1 home, 1-10 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +2.4 at home vs. away over 54 games — inside the ±6.5 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 373 miles to get here.