Tarleton State · Next-Season Outcome Band
Fanbase Health Index · Tarleton State · medium confidence
FCS Program Prestige · Tarleton StateThe 2024 UAC Championship
Tarleton State's first postseason-eligible season is crowned with a UAC championship
Tarleton State12-2Hope-Doping·Offseason
Tarleton State is the Texas program that climbed from Division II to FCS and won a UAC championship in its first eligible year.
Title DroughtSince 2025
Fans here believe the chip is one: Tarleton State was told it would take four years to reclassify, and the Texans are determined to prove that the wait was worth it — they're not just an FCS team, the…
offseason · quiet
Approaching
24 days
until kickoff · vs Prairie View A&M · Sun Aug 30 · 01:00 UTC
The experience
Tarleton State is the Texas program that climbed from Division II to FCS and won a UAC championship in its first eligible year.
Quiet weeks in Texans country.
Tarleton State · Next-Season Outcome Band
Floor / Base / Ceiling
Floor 10-2
Base 12-0
Ceiling 12-0
floor10-2Competitive but likely outside the at-large field.
base12-0Conference title contender. Playoff bid realistic.
ceiling12-0Conference title + deep playoff run.
Variance assumed at ±2 wins from last-season record. Replace with the season-path projection once preview data is built.
Recent Form · last 10 games
Mixed
Three of five. Trending up, not yet hot.
Streak L1Last 5 · 3-2Last 10 · 8-2
The forecast
Opens Aug 30
vs Prairie View A&M · at home
Community pulse
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
The Pulse on Tarleton State
—
Quiet weeks in Texans country.
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Camp
Fall camp open — install + scrimmage cycle
ongoing
Kickoff
Season opener in 16 days
kickoff
"Go Tarleton State"
— Tarleton State fanbase · recurring line
41 mentions · sample growing
Fanbase Health Index · Tarleton State · medium confidence
Growing (70)
DecliningStableGrowingSurging
On-Field — 12-2 (86% win rate)77
Volume — 40 effective signal-N62
Player stats — 2025 season
No player stats logged for this program yet — stats appear once the season is underway.
Tarleton State · 2025 schedule & results12-2Soft slateAverage opponent win rate 43% · 0 AP top-25 opponents on the schedule.
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 23 | #124 | #189 | -16.5 | @Portland State | W 42–0 | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| 1 | Aug 29 | #124 | #69 | +14 | @Army | W 30–27 154 | 2-0 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 6 | #101 | #237 | -44.5 | Mississippi Valley State | W 59–3 | 3-0 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 13 | #102 | #147 | -13 | @Central Arkansas | W 56–10 | 4-0 | 1-0 |
| 4 | Sep 20 | #91 | #162 | -27 | Chattanooga | W 52–24 | 5-0 | 1-0 |
| 6 | Oct 4 | #90 | #167 | -20.5 | Southern Utah | W 52–42 | 6-0 | 1-0 |
| 7 | Oct 12 | #93 | #218 | -28 | @Utah Tech | W 41–23 | 7-0 | 1-0 |
| 8 | Oct 18 | #87 | #168 | -20 | West Georgia | W 45–10 | 8-0 | 2-0 |
| 9 | Oct 25 | #78 | #191 | -24 | @Eastern Kentucky | W 31–7 | 9-0 | 3-0 |
| 10 | Nov 1 | #69 | #139 | -13.5 | @Abilene Christian | L 28–31 | 9-1 | 3-1 |
| 12 | Nov 16 | #72 | #232 | -33.5 | North Alabama | W 61–0 | 10-1 | 4-1 |
| 13 | Nov 22 | #67 | #140 | -18.5 | Austin Peay | W 45–44 | 11-1 | 5-1 |
| Conference Championship | ||||||||
| 15 | Dec 6 | #73 | #69 | — | North Dakota | W 31–13 | 12-1 | 5-1 |
| 16 | Dec 13 | #64 | #77 | -14.5 | Villanova | L 21–26 | 12-2 | 5-1 |
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)▼
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 13 | Villanova | L 21–26 | — | — | — | +0.018 | 34.5% | 136.9% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Dec 6 | North Dakota | W 31–13 | — | — | — | +0.179 | 38.7% | 119.1% | |
| Nov 22 | Austin Peay | W 45–44 | — | — | — | +0.339 | 46.2% | 152.1% | One-score win |
| Nov 16 | North Alabama | W 61–0 | — | — | — | +0.327 | 47.5% | 161.3% | Most explosive |
| Nov 1 | @Abilene Christian | L 28–31 | — | — | — | +0.042 | 35.3% | 148.4% | One-score loss |
| Oct 25 | @Eastern Kentucky | W 31–7 | — | — | — | +0.156 | 48.0% | 119.8% | |
| Oct 18 | West Georgia | W 45–10 | — | — | — | +0.349 | 51.4% | 126.6% | Blowout win |
| Oct 12 | @Utah Tech | W 41–23 | — | — | — | +0.262 | 54.5% | 105.7% | |
| Oct 4 | Southern Utah | W 52–42 | — | — | — | +0.586 | 58.3% | 140.2% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 20 | Chattanooga | W 52–24 | — | — | — | +0.390 | 46.4% | 159.1% | Blowout win |
| Sep 13 | @Central Arkansas | W 56–10 | — | — | — | +0.332 | 47.8% | 146.2% | Blowout win |
| Sep 6 | Mississippi Valley State | W 59–3 | — | — | — | +0.311 | 51.7% | 138.6% | Blowout win |
| Aug 29 | @Army | W 30–27 | 344 | 0 | 23:26 | +0.221 | 31.1% | 155.1% | One-score win |
| Aug 23 | @Portland State | W 42–0 | — | — | — | +0.372 | 41.8% | 157.0% | Blowout win |
| Season average (14 games) | 344 | 0.0 | +0.277 | 45.2% | 140.4% | ||||
Schedule mirage
How much of Tarleton State's number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.28; 87th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.07. The widest gap came in week 6: 0.37 raw vs. 0.12 adjusted.
Home-Field Advantage · Tarleton State · 2018-present
Elite
75% home win rate vs 62% on the road. margin runs +15.8 better at home. Memorial Stadium (Stephenville, TX) seats 24,000, averaging 78% full (18,660 attendance, 14 games reported).
Home25-8Away18-11
Venue texture
76°F average kickoff temp; 0% of games had measurable precipitation; 9 mph average wind.
Based on 16 home games with weather data.
FCS Program Prestige · Tarleton State
Mid-Major Contender
All-Time Record
46-27
since 1921 · 17 seasons · .630 win rate
HOME
25-9
AWAY
20-17
NEUTRAL
1-1
1920s
1930s
1940s
2000s
2010s
2020s
UAC Standing · 2025
2nd in the UAC
Tarleton State is 2nd in the UAC at 5-1. 1 team above — that's the direct path to the title game.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Abilene Christian | 6-0 |
| 2 | Tarleton State | 5-1 |
| 3 | Austin Peay | 3-3 |
| 4 | West Georgia | 3-3 |
| 5 | Eastern Kentucky | 2-4 |
| 6 | Central Arkansas | 1-5 |
| 7 | North Alabama | 1-5 |
| 8 | West Florida | 0-0 |
Program memory
What this program never forgets
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
The 2025 Co-Championship & Playoff Run
12–2 (7–1 UAC), co-champions with Abilene Christian, reach FCS Playoff Quarterfinal (lose to Villanova 21–26)
Moment of the Year · Tarleton State · 2025
Moment of the Year · Tarleton State · 2025Won 42-0 at Portland State
Week 1 of 2025. A statement margin. Recruiting boards re-rendered overnight.
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