Key stats
Each bar is the team’s national rank as a percentile. A longer bar is better, for defense too.
All 4 stats
FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
Player stats
No player stats logged for this program yet — stats appear once the season is underway.
How scary each game got
Tarleton State won all 9 games; the closest win was at McNeese, down to 19%
Tap a game for its score and win chances.
Each bar runs from the lowest to the highest chance our model gave Tarleton State during that game; the thick mark is where it started. Numbers are the game week.
Home-field advantage · 2018–present · FBS opponents
Tarleton State is worth +1.9 points more at home than on the road.
Bottom third of FBS, 16th percentile of 133 programs
0% at home, 40% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (0-2 home, 2-3 away). Interval ±9.8.
The stadium and how the home edge is measured
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge. The books use about 3. Per-team versions were tested and did not hold up (why). Against the closing line, Tarleton State has beaten the number by −3.9 more at home than away over 52 games. That is inside the ±7.8 that many games can resolve, so the results cannot tell this stadium from the flat number. That is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.
Memorial Stadium (Stephenville, TX) seats 24,000 and has averaged 80% full (19,251, 19 games reported). Visitors cover a median 465 miles to get here (2018-present).
Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 38 home games since 2018. No national trip rank shown: the ranked field is FBS venues only and leaves out the service academies and venues with too few measured games.
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Scheme claims
How much of Tarleton State’s number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 10 is 0.36; adjusted for opponent strength, it's 0.14. The widest gap came in week 6: 0.35 raw vs. 0.10 adjusted.