Tarleton State beats Austin Peay 40-32

Team pages: Tarleton State · Austin Peay

Tarleton State6-040
Austin Peay5-232Final
Sat, Oct 10 · Governors Stadium, Clarksville, Tenn. · Crowd 8,167ESPN+

Tarleton State beat Austin Peay 40-32.

We had Austin Peay favored. Tarleton State won.

Next: Tarleton State beat Central Arkansas 49-35, Sat Oct 17

Next: Austin Peay beat West Georgia 24-10, Sat Oct 17

How it swung

The turning point: De La Poza 20-yd field goal, Tarleton State leads 10-3 (Q1, 1:36). Tarleton State went from 56% to 74% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Tarleton State a 42% chance, and the closing betting line (Tarleton State was a 2.5-point underdog) put it at 42%.

A tight one: Tarleton State bottomed out at 26% and won.

Up to 74% in the first quarter, then Austin Peay lost it.

FinalTarleton State 40-32 Austin PeayTarleton State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q483% at halfTarleton StateLowest 26%Won40-3212+18+15Scores
50%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q483% at halfTarleton StateLowest 26%Won40-3212Scores
50%10%25%75%Q1Q2Q3Q417% at halfTarleton StateHigh 74%Lost32-4012−18−15Scores
50%10%25%75%Q1Q2Q3Q417% at halfTarleton StateHigh 74%Lost32-4012Scores

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q1 1:36De La Poza 20-yd field goal, Tarleton State leads 10-3Tarleton State 56% → 74% (+18)
  2. 2Q4 0:0933-yd puntTarleton State 81% → 96% (+15)

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q1 1:36De La Poza 20-yd field goal, Tarleton State leads 10-3Austin Peay 44% → 26% (−18)
  2. 2Q4 0:0933-yd puntAustin Peay 19% → 4% (−15)
Tarleton State’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Austin Peay -2.5), at 34% for Tarleton State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.

Every drive

Tarleton State scored on 7 of its 11 drives; Austin Peay on 5 of its 11.

Tarleton State’s drives are teal, Austin Peay’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Tarleton State: Punt, from 80 yards out to 75PuntAustin Peay: Punt, from 45 yards out to 41PuntTarleton State: Punt, from 94 yards out to 68PuntAustin Peay: Field goal, from 50 yards out to 5Field goalTarleton State: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownAustin Peay: Punt, from 75 yards out to 77PuntTarleton State: Field goal, from 6 yards out to 3Field goalTarleton State: Touchdown, from 65 yards out to 0TouchdownQ2Austin Peay: Punt, from 84 yards out to 56PuntTarleton State: Touchdown, from 87 yards out to 0TouchdownAustin Peay: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownTarleton State: Interception, from 75 yards out to 14InterceptionAustin Peay: End of half, from 85 yards out to 73End of halfQ3Austin Peay: Punt, from 75 yards out to 79PuntTarleton State: Touchdown, from 66 yards out to 0TouchdownAustin Peay: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownTarleton State: Field goal, from 61 yards out to 15Field goalQ4Austin Peay: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownTarleton State: Touchdown, from 52 yards out to 0TouchdownAustin Peay: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownTarleton State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 64PuntAustin Peay: End of game, from 69 yards out to 54End of game

Box score

Tarleton State 40, Austin Peay 32

Tarleton State covered +2.5 by 10.5. The total, 72, went over 57.5.

Tarleton State leaders

  • Passing Kaden Anderson 22 of 34, 347 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing Miequle Brock 16 for 106 yds, 1 TD; Tylan Hines 6 for 21 yds
  • Receiving Tanner Schmidt 8 for 121 yds, 1 TD; Marquis Willis 4 for 97 yds, 1 TD

Austin Peay leaders

  • Passing Chris Parson 16 of 33, 231 yds, 1 TD
  • Rushing Chris Parson 26 for 102 yds, 2 TD; Courtland Simmons 3 for 20 yds
  • Receiving Denver Harper 5 for 106 yds, 1 TD; Marvin Sims 6 for 88 yds

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Tarleton State · 5-0

Rated 95th in our preseason ratings, 102nd now.

Three straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.

W 56-21 vs Chicago State #260 of 668

won by 35 as a 50.5-point favorite

Tarleton State won 56-21 vs Chicago State. Chance to win started at better than 99%, low 98%, high better than 99%.

W 45-20 vs Merrimack #203 of 668

won by 25 as a 32.5-point favorite

Tarleton State won 45-20 vs Merrimack. Chance to win started at 99%, low 96%, high better than 99%.

W 27-24 @ McNeese #211 of 668

won by 3 as a 19.5-point favorite

Tarleton State won 27-24 at McNeese. Chance to win started at 90%, low 59%, high better than 99%.

W 20-13 @ Bowling Green #121 of 668

won by 7 as a 1.5-point underdog

Tarleton State won 20-13 at Bowling Green. Chance to win started at 40%, low 34%, high better than 99%.

W 49-30 vs Prairie View A&M #109 of 668

won by 19 as a 19.5-point favorite

Tarleton State won 49-30 vs Prairie View A&M. Chance to win started at 93%, low 88%, high better than 99%.

Last three games

Austin Peay · 5-1

Rated 118th in our preseason ratings, 104th now, up 14 spots.

Three straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.

W 42-17 vs New Haven #254 of 668

won by 25 as a 35.5-point favorite

Austin Peay won 42-17 vs New Haven. Chance to win started at 99%, low 97%, high better than 99%.

W 35-12 vs UT Martin #194 of 668

won by 23 as a 15.5-point favorite

Austin Peay won 35-12 vs UT Martin. Chance to win started at 89%, low 61%, high better than 99%.

W 38-16 @ West Florida #252 of 668

won by 22 as a 10.5-point favorite

Austin Peay won 38-16 at West Florida. Chance to win started at 70%, low 68%, high better than 99%.

Week by week

Austin Peay

Wk 1: L 9-28 at Vanderbilt▼19Vanderbi…Wk 2: W 63-7 vs Morehead State▲56Morehead…Wk 3: W 38-16 at West Florida▲22W. Flori…Wk 4: W 35-12 vs UT Martin▲23UT MartinWk 5: W 42-17 vs New Haven▲25New Haven
  • Wk 1Lat Vanderbilt9-28
  • Wk 2Wvs Morehead State63-7
  • Wk 3Wat West Florida38-16
  • Wk 4Wvs UT Martin35-12
  • Wk 5Wvs New Haven42-17

Tarleton State

Wk 1: W 49-30 vs Prairie View A&M▲19Prairie…Wk 1: W 20-13 at Bowling Green▲7Bowling…Wk 2: W 27-24 at McNeese▲3McNeeseWk 3: W 45-20 vs Merrimack▲25MerrimackWk 5: W 56-21 vs Chicago State▲35Chicago…
  • Wk 1Wvs Prairie View A&M49-30
  • Wk 1Wat Bowling Green20-13
  • Wk 2Wat McNeese27-24
  • Wk 3Wvs Merrimack45-20
  • Wk 5Wvs Chicago State56-21

Power rating by week

Tarleton State is rated 0.3 points ahead as of week 5. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

-1-3-5Wk 0Wk 3Wk 5Austin PeayTarleton State

The series

Tarleton State leads the series 2-0

2 meetings since 2024 · Tarleton State has won the last 2

  • 2025Tarleton State 45-44
  • 2024Tarleton State 27-17

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line agree on Austin Peay’s chances here.

50-50Model 58% · Line 58%Tarleton StateAustin Peay

Austin Peay favored by 2.5 · Total 57.5

How games like this usually go

Austin Peay by 2.5, on the usual path until 0:04 left in the fourth

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 252 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 1 point toward Austin Peay.

opened −1.5now −2.5

The total fell 5 points.

opened 62.5now 57.5

Spread: −1.5 → −2.5 · Total: 62.5 → 57.5

The books’ cut: 5.4%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Austin Peay is worth +9.5 points (±16.2) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 99th percentile.

50% at home, 21% on the road against FBS opponents (1-1 home, 3-11 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +2.4 at home vs. away over 52 games — inside the ±8.8 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 687 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.