1offseason
Vanderbilt enters 2026 rated No. 11 in 2025 SP+ (+20.3), up 39 spots from 2024.
Vanderbilt leaped 39 spots in SP+ — the gap between the ranking and its 10-3 record is the story Clark Lea has to answer in the SEC this year.
Vanderbilt10-3CFP #14The read on Vanderbilt depends entirely on who you ask.
belief warmed ↑ 3.0vs prior week
Fanbase belief
Mixed
46/100 · 103 mentions
~ our readGrounding
running on emotion
4% cite a stat · 7% typical ✓ counted
~ our readVolatility
Chaotic
σ 27 pts
~ our readThe model
#20
CFB Zeitgeist · +8.4
✓ measured1Hope-Doping·Offseason
Vanderbilt is the program that turned a transfer quarterback nobody else wanted into a Heisman finalist and the SEC's best story — a 10-win season the school's own history said was impossible.
AP Poll#13 AP
Every preseason poll buries Vanderbilt by reflex, and the fanbase has heard 'the scheme called it a scheduling accident' so often it became the program's dry punchline. They say 2025 wasn't luck — it…
offseason · quiet
Roster Reload - Vanderbilt
2026 snapshot - 2026-08-06Returning Production86%High continuity
Talent Composite#55 nationally247 composite 685.4
Portal Additions18Primary repair: EDGE
Portal Losses19Primary pressure: WR
Draft Loss1NFL Draft departures (1) — 1 with a next man up identified below
Recruiting Reload#33Development class
WRin 2 - Ja'Cory Thomasout 5 - Tre RichardsonStarter Risk
current room: 184 lbs avg (2025 roster)
TEin 3 - Jayvontay Connerout 2 - Witt EdwardsUpgrade
current room: 238 lbs avg (2025 roster)
EDGEin 3 - Brian Allenout 1 - Linus ZunkNeed Filled
IOLin 2 - Micah DeBoseout 1 - Cooper StarksUpgrade
current room: 315 lbs avg (2025 roster)
DLin 2 - Mike Diattaout 1 - Terry Nwabuisi-EzealaUpgrade
current room: 293 lbs avg (2025 roster)
CBin 2 - Cobey Sellersout 1 - Trudell BerryUpgrade
current room: 189 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Next man up
Belief EKG
WinLoss · hover for scorePrior seasons
Approaching
30 days
until kickoff · vs Austin Peay · Sat Sep 5 · 23:00 UTC
The experience
Vanderbilt is the program that is not supposed to be here, and is.
Offense: EliteDefense: SoftDefensive shape: Gives up the big play
Vanderbilt's 2026 season hinges on WR depth and transfer integration
With a high continuity roster and a balanced portal churn, Vanderbilt aims to build on its 10-3 base scenario. The team faces challenges in replacing departed WR talent but benefits from incoming transfers at EDGE and other positions.
- Roster reloadVanderbilt returns 86% of its roster, with a continuity score of "high", indicating strong retention.
Data as of 2026-08-01
·
Validated against program evidence
Vanderbilt trusts its work more than its press. The quiet is part of the plan.
Vanderbilt · the story right now
6 storylines developing
What Vanderbilt's offseason is really about
the open questionwhere does it go from here?
program_outlookthis cycle~readnew
Vanderbilt leaped 39 spots in SP+ — the top-quintile returning production fuels Clark Lea's fifth-year push to validate its No. 13 AP finish.
what happenedVanderbilt enters 2025 rated No. 11 in SP+ (+20.3), up 39 spots from 2024. ✓ fact
the contexttop-quintile returning production in FBS — 1% of production comes back
narrative tension · our read
money downthis cycle✓ factnew
Eli Stowers is a legitimate money-down target -- his 3rd-down conversion rate ranks among the position's best, and his per-target value holds up in that spot too.
narrative tension · our read
deep threatthis cycle~attributednew
Eli Stowers is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
narrative tension · our read
deep threatthis cycle~attributednew
Richie Hoskins is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
narrative tension · our read
deep threatthis cycle~attributednew
Tre Richardson is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
narrative tension · our read
program_outlookthis cycle~readnew
Vanderbilt leaped 39 spots in SP+ — the gap between the ranking and its 10-3 record is the story Clark Lea has to answer in the SEC this year.
what happenedVanderbilt enters 2026 rated No. 11 in 2025 SP+ (+20.3), up 39 spots from 2024. ✓ fact
the contexttop-quintile returning production in FBS — 1% of production comes back
narrative tension · our read
How past storylines here turned out
Died downVanderbilt's defensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.
Died downVanderbilt's offensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.
The story
The Offseason Ledger · Vanderbilt
3 verified updates · portal · recruiting · staff · news- Recruiting
Corey Laga commits to Vanderbilt
Lea's been preaching depth all offseason — WR room had real pressure behind the top end, and Laga adds a body who can compete for snaps before the SEC slate hits.
- Recruiting
Five-star QB Jared Curtis commits 2026
Four QBs out, St-Hilaire gone, and the room was running on fumes — Curtis is the first five-star to commit to Vanderbilt in years, and Lea didn't fill this with a portal band-aid.
- Portal
CB Jaylin Davies transfer commits from Oklahoma State
Big-12 corner to SEC — Davies's snap count fell off in Stillwater, Lea's defense gives him the room.
Transfer portal snapshot
-5.8 net portal points
(raw ledger: -5.5 — unweighted, no position adjustment)WR-12.3
starter risk
EDGE+7.5
need not filled
RB-7.0
starter risk
QB-6.7
starter risk
TE+6.3
IOL+3.9
DL+3.6
CB+3.5
LB-3.5
low confidence
S-3.1
LS+1.0
low confidence
P+1.0
low confidence
OT+0.3
Top 3 commits
2026 class
★★★★★
Jared Curtis
#4 national
Blue-chip pedigree, profiling early as a prototypical quarterback — 10 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Pocket Passer archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
★★★★☆
Mitchell Smith
#360 national
★★★★☆
Collin Flanigan
#365 national
↓
Fan confidence lower than any point since 2025
4th percentile among FBS programs
Fan vs. market↓
4th
Fan percentile
(FBS mood rank)
(FBS mood rank)
5.5
Vegas O/U wins
(26th among FBS)
(26th among FBS)
Market 22pp more optimistic than fan mood
Win total consensus · 3 books
Market outlook
Season expectations
Win total3 booksO/U 5.5
CFP championship#29 in field+10000
SEC title#13 in market+8000
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-08-06
Vanderbilt · Next-Season Outcome Band
Vanderbilt · Next-Season Outcome BandFloor / Base / Ceiling
Floor 7-6
Base 10-3
Ceiling 12-1
floor7-6Bowl game.
base10-3Bowl game.
ceiling12-1Bowl game.
Final-season-aware projection: floor / base / ceiling include conference title and CFP games where the model supports them, so a ceiling can exceed a 12-game regular season.
How the room reacted
Following now · Vanderbilt · Season outlook Confidence
Vanderbilt climbed into the top 25. Now the schedule has to agree.
Vanderbilt enters 2025 rated No. 11 in SP+ (+20.3), up 39 spots from 2024. It is top-quintile returning production in FBS — 1% of production comes back. A top-25 rating means the tape backed the ranking over three seasons. Now the schedule tests whether it still does. The skeptics have specifics: the schedule, the departures, the pieces the model can't see.
The saga so far~5 months old
Jun 27Corey Laga commits to Vanderbilt — Official
Jun 23Five-star QB Jared Curtis commits 2026 — CFBD recruiting profile (commit-date est.)
Feb 26CB Jaylin Davies transfer commits from Oklahoma State — CFBD /player/portal
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Vanderbilt leaped 39 spots in SP+ — the top-quintile returning production fuels Clark Lea's fifth-year push to validate its No. 13 AP finish.
Next · what to watch
The non-obvious consequence of a major jump in the model is the expectations tax: a season that would have read as a breakthrough last year now reads as meeting the floor. Watch whether the model holds through the first month of the schedule.
Source of record: Vanderbilt enters 2025 rated No. 11 in SP+ (+20.3), up 39 spots from 2024 — top-quintile returning production in FBS — 1% of production comes back.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
📣Believers0 bullish items -- the case it's working.›
The 'the projection is underselling us' read -- fans betting the season beats the preview number.
“Vanderbilt football introduces new gold jerseys for 2026 season”
The Tennessean · 2026-08-05 · read ↗
“Vanderbilt Football 2026 Position Preview: Wide Receivers”
Yahoo Sports · 2026-08-05 · read ↗
“Trio of Matches Hit SEC Network”
Vanderbilt Commodores · 2026-08-05 · read ↗
🧐Skeptics“Vanderbilt Fall Camp Day 1 Observations: Big Arms, Bigger Tight ” — the real counter.›
The 'the model has seen the tape' counter -- efficiency ratings reward what a program has actually done, not hope.
“Vanderbilt Fall Camp Day 1 Observations: Big Arms, Bigger Tight Ends, and Questions at Receiver”
On3 · 2026-08-05 · read ↗
💬The boards29% of recent board volume — the fanbase is locked in. Board mood this week: negative overall · anger notable (76%).›
This event was in 175 of 600 board posts (29%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
"I am an alumni and I haven’t had any luck landing any job. I’m a server and everyone at my job makes fun of me for graduating from Vanderbilt and ending up being a server. For pers"
r/Vanderbilt ~ fan take
"what’s the gym like? I’m an Incomming freshman who does weight training 5-6x a week and I was wondering what types of machines and equipment are available and how busy the gym typi"
r/Vanderbilt ~ fan take
Board health this week (106 posts): 11% positive · 47% neutral · 42% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.
Following now · Vanderbilt · Season outlook Confidence
Vanderbilt climbed into the top 25. Now the schedule has to agree.
Vanderbilt enters 2026 rated No. 11 in 2025 SP+ (+20.3), up 39 spots from 2024. It is top-quintile returning production in FBS — 1% of production comes back. A top-25 rating means the tape backed the ranking over three seasons. Now the schedule tests whether it still does. The skeptics have specifics: the schedule, the departures, the pieces the model can't see.
The saga so far~5 months old
Jun 27Corey Laga commits to Vanderbilt — Official
Jun 23Five-star QB Jared Curtis commits 2026 — CFBD recruiting profile (commit-date est.)
Feb 26CB Jaylin Davies transfer commits from Oklahoma State — CFBD /player/portal
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Vanderbilt leaped 39 spots in SP+ — the gap between the ranking and its 10-3 record is the story Clark Lea has to answer in the SEC this year.
Next · what to watch
The non-obvious consequence of a major jump in the model is the expectations tax: a season that would have read as a breakthrough last year now reads as meeting the floor. Watch whether the model holds through the first month of the schedule.
Source of record: Vanderbilt enters 2026 rated No. 11 in 2025 SP+ (+20.3), up 39 spots from 2024 — top-quintile returning production in FBS — 1% of production comes back.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
📣Believers0 bullish items -- the case it's working.›
The 'the projection is underselling us' read -- fans betting the season beats the preview number.
“Vanderbilt football introduces new gold jerseys for 2026 season”
The Tennessean · 2026-08-05 · read ↗
“Vanderbilt Football 2026 Position Preview: Wide Receivers”
Yahoo Sports · 2026-08-05 · read ↗
“Trio of Matches Hit SEC Network”
Vanderbilt Commodores · 2026-08-05 · read ↗
🧐Skeptics“Vanderbilt Fall Camp Day 1 Observations: Big Arms, Bigger Tight ” — the real counter.›
The 'the model has seen the tape' counter -- efficiency ratings reward what a program has actually done, not hope.
“Vanderbilt Fall Camp Day 1 Observations: Big Arms, Bigger Tight Ends, and Questions at Receiver”
On3 · 2026-08-05 · read ↗
💬The boards29% of recent board volume — the fanbase is locked in. Board mood this week: negative overall · anger notable (76%).›
This event was in 175 of 600 board posts (29%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
"I am an alumni and I haven’t had any luck landing any job. I’m a server and everyone at my job makes fun of me for graduating from Vanderbilt and ending up being a server. For pers"
r/Vanderbilt ~ fan take
"what’s the gym like? I’m an Incomming freshman who does weight training 5-6x a week and I was wondering what types of machines and equipment are available and how busy the gym typi"
r/Vanderbilt ~ fan take
Board health this week (106 posts): 11% positive · 47% neutral · 42% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.
Recent Form · last 10 games
Mixed
Three of five. Trending up, not yet hot.
Streak L1Last 5 · 3-2Last 10 · 7-3
The forecast
Opens Sep 5
vs Austin Peay · at home
Season line5.5 winsover -155
EliteSoftGives up the big play
✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style
Rival pulse
Tennessee
Uneasy-7
Tennessee-Vanderbilt
Missouri
Mixed-3
Vanderbilt-Missouri
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
24
TX · 6TN · 4MS · 3AL · 1AZ · 1CA · 1CO · 1FL · 1+6 more
TX leads the 2026 class with 6 commits. National footprint reaching 14 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
81 signees across 24 states, 2023-2026. TN leads the pull.
r/cfb this year
[Postgame Thread] Vanderbilt Defeats LSU 31-24
[Game Thread] LSU @ Vanderbilt (12:00 PM ET)
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
Voter spread
66 of 66 AP voters have them ranked, final AP ballot (2025) — from #13, Bob Ballou (CBS Austin), to #23, Kirk Kenney (San Diego Union-Tribune).
Individual AP Top 25 ballots, final AP ballot, 2025 — 66 voters tracked.
National spotlight
12 games with TV coverage: 3 national broadcast, 4 ESPN, 4 conference network, 1 streaming
Kickoff windows: 4 noon, 5 afternoon, 3 primetime
Fumble luck
Recovering 33% of their own fumbles — running cold vs. the ~51% league rate.
2 of 6 own fumbles recovered themselves; 6 of 12 forced fumbles recovered, 2025 only.
Takeaway conversion
Getting hands on the ball but not cashing in: 14% of disruptions converted, vs. the ~19% league rate.
6 interceptions of 43 disrupted passes (37 deflected, 6 intercepted), 2025 only.
Penalty battle
Winning the penalty battle: 89 penalties committed vs. 90 drawn on opponents, a 41-yard edge.
776 penalty yards committed vs. 817 drawn on opponents, 2025 season total.
The Pulse on Vanderbilt
46
Δ +3.0 vs last wk
103
mentions this week · conversation velocity
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Camp
Fall camp open — install + scrimmage cycle
ongoing
Kickoff
Season opener in 16 days
kickoff
"The League called it a scheduling accident; the program calls it a standard."
— Vanderbilt fanbase · recurring line
Fanbase Signals
Cohort Divergence11 pctSpread between sub-fanbase cohorts in the Pulse window.
The Fever Year
Position = mood · width = volume · color = the kind of feeling
Inside the fanbase — all 11 corners
Cr/CFB
GGoogle News
LLocked On
AAnchor Of Gold
CCampus paper
BBluesky
YYouTube
The split, staged
Warmest corner+0.00
Local
most bought-in cohort our read
vs
Coldest corner−0.00
Bettors
most skeptical cohort our read
Believers keep circling back to fan energy; skeptics keep coming back to where the program is headed. our read
How Vanderbilt fans actually talk real · top-upvoted
Rr/CFBthe room
You break NIL rules when your employer wants to get out of paying your buyout, duh
▲ 279 ▼open ↗
The crowd’s loudest take by upvotes — read for mood, not as a side. The cohort read is the measured part.
Loudest in the room this week real · by engagement
All 11 corners of the fanbase
skeptical
buying in
Local+0.22
Bettors−0.08
Cohort sentiment is a source-weighted model read — never a quote pinned to a person.
What this fanbase keeps coming back to our read · topic model
Topics are model-labeled from Reddit — a rough signal of what this fanbase is circling right now.
326 mentions · 7 sources · week 2026-01. Counts, sources and the divergence rank are measured (fact). Cohort labels and sentiment are a source-weighted model read (our read) — never a quote attributed to a person.
Belief checklight on evidence
~ our readVanderbilt fans are down on the program, but it's more feel than fact right now.
backed by facts
the mood
✓ counted We read 106 posts from Vanderbilt fans this week.
Vanderbilt – Tennessee
Fan mood across the 2025 season, both sides — our read
Hover a week for both sides’ game
Shaded weeks show whose fanbase read warmer, our measure of what fans actually said, not a poll.
What fans are saying
Fan claims · every quote verified verbatim
player roleWidely held among fans
fans believe Vanderbilt's success is heavily dependent on Diego Pavia's presence
Can we really win without Diego Pavia? Pavia's been the engine of everything Vanderbilt's built the last couple years, the run threat, the moxie, the way he elevates guys around him in the biggest moments.
Is this a "the whole thing collapses without him" or has this program actually built something durable enough to survive a Pavia-less stretch?
Based on 2 comments from 1 poster across 1 thread · Jul 29, 2026 · via Vanderbilt
recruiting resultLimited signal that season
fans believe the team is signing top-rated high school prospects
we just picked up a 4 star QB out of Texas and another 4 star Qb out of GA is very high on us as well
Based on 1 comment from 1 poster across 1 thread · Oct 18, 2025 · via CFB
player performanceLimited signal that season
fans argue Vanderbilt's defense improves after halftime
Crazy how absolutely solid Vanderbilt’s second half was after kicking themselves in the foot with penalties in turnovers in the first half.
Based on 1 comment from 1 poster across 1 thread · Sep 7, 2025 · via CFB
Season storylines
Week 3
“190-51 over 4 games. If that’s not belt to ass, nothing is. Clark Lea the Wizard of West End”— r/CFB
Week 4
“Even being single digit underdogs in T-Town against the Tide would be banner worthy. Going in to clinch bowl eligibility it all sounds so implausible.”— r/CFB
Week 2
“As long as Hugh Freeze is your coach, I don't know that it matters which team Pavia plays for.”— r/CFB
Week 5
“It's really interesting to see Bama fans in the game thread shit talk Vanderbilt Thats how you know we made it”— r/CFB
Week 6
“I still imagine what it would have looked like to have the Vols offense from Hooker’s last year, and last year’s Vols defense. That team might have broken records.”— r/CFB
Five Lenses
What people are saying right now
Radio, beat writers & editorial7 posts
The broader fanbase4 posts
News & campus coverage15 posts
Rent free · r/cfb fan posts, last season
Vanderbilt fans this offseason 11% of posts bring up another team▲1pp saltier#37 of 43 saltiest · mostly about Virginia
Who Vanderbilt fans can’t stop bringing up
share of Vanderbilt’s football posts that mention each team
Fanbase Health Index · Vanderbilt · high confidence
Fanbase Health Index · Vanderbilt · high confidenceGrowing (67)
DecliningStableGrowingSurging
On-Field — 10-3 (77% win rate)77
Volume — 867 effective signal-N89
Cohort Engagement — Divergence 0.11 — quiet35
From the booth
The Lexicon
238 posts and articles vs the field · 2025 season
lea
×328.3 the field
Signature — ≥10× the rest of college football
lea×328.3n=17
pavia×107.3n=14
vandy×28.1n=16
Characteristic — 3–10×
sec×5.0n=20
safety×4.7n=13
Mild — <3×
star×2.6n=30
three×4.0n=14
commits×3.9n=14
playoff×2.6n=17
cfp×3.1n=11
“PLEASE, WE ALL want to see the prevent defense”
reddit/CFB · fan post, verbatim
Fanbase Voice
618 fan mentions
Measured
vs the 81 highest-volume fanbases - 2025 season
Key stats — 2025 — FBS rank
Points/game#8 / 138 · 95th pct38.5
Pts allowed/game#46 / 138 · 67th pct22.8
Total yards/gm#14 / 136 · 90th pct463.2
Rush yards/gm#47 / 136 · 66th pct175.9
Pass yards/gm#16 / 136 · 89th pct287.3
Yards allowed/gm#65 / 136 · 53rd pct357.5
Rush yds allowed/gm#16 / 136 · 89th pct108.1
Sacks#31 / 136 · 78th pct31
Interceptions#84 / 136 · 39th pct8
3rd-down conv#6 / 136 · 96th pct51.1%
All 98 stats
Offense / Defense
Total yards
Team6022463.2/gm7.51/play#14 / 136 · 90th pct#9 / 69 · 88th pct#3 / 16 · 88th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Opp4648357.5/gm5.53/play#65 / 136 · 53rd pct#43 / 69 · 39th pct#12 / 16 · 31st pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Rush yards
Team2287175.9/gm2.85/play#47 / 136 · 66th pct#22 / 69 · 70th pct#7 / 16 · 62nd pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Opp1405108.1/gm1.67/play#16 / 136 · 89th pct#14 / 69 · 81st pct#6 / 16 · 69th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Rush carries
Team40230.9/gm#104 / 136 · 24th pct#53 / 69 · 25th pct#14 / 16 · 19th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
Opp38229.4/gm#6 / 136 · 96th pct#5 / 69 · 94th pct#1 / 16 · 100th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Rush TDs
Team352.7/gm#8 / 136 · 95th pct#4 / 69 · 96th pct#2 / 16 · 94th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Opp100.8/gm#11 / 136 · 93rd pct#8 / 69 · 90th pct#2 / 16 · 94th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Net pass yards
Team3735287.3/gm4.66/play#16 / 136 · 89th pct#12 / 69 · 84th pct#4 / 16 · 81st pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Opp3243249.5/gm3.86/play#122 / 136 · 11th pct#63 / 69 · 10th pct#16 / 16 · 6th pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct
Pass attempts
Team40030.8/gm#69 / 136 · 50th pct#35 / 69 · 51st pct#9 / 16 · 50th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Opp45835.2/gm#118 / 136 · 14th pct#58 / 69 · 17th pct#13 / 16 · 25th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Completions
Team27921.5/gm#38 / 136 · 73rd pct#25 / 69 · 65th pct#6 / 16 · 69th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Opp30523.5/gm#132 / 136 · 4th pct#66 / 69 · 6th pct#16 / 16 · 6th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Pass TDs
Team302.3/gm#12 / 136 · 92nd pct#9 / 69 · 88th pct#2 / 16 · 94th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Opp241.8/gm#116 / 136 · 15th pct#62 / 69 · 12th pct#15 / 16 · 12th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
Passer rating
Team168.9168.9#3 / 136 · 99th pct#3 / 69 · 97th pct#1 / 16 · 100th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Opp139.9139.9#103 / 136 · 25th pct#54 / 69 · 23rd pct#15 / 16 · 12th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Interceptions thrown
Team80.6/gm#88 / 136 · 36th pct#40 / 69 · 43rd pct#10 / 16 · 44th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Opp80.6/gm#44 / 136 · 68th pct#23 / 69 · 68th pct#4 / 16 · 81st pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
Sacks (def)
Team312.4/gm#31 / 136 · 78th pct#19 / 69 · 74th pct#8 / 16 · 56th pct#1 / 10 · 100th pct
Opp231.8/gm#63 / 136 · 54th pct#35 / 69 · 51st pct#6 / 16 · 69th pct#6 / 10 · 50th pct
Tackles for loss
Team816.2/gm#30 / 136 · 79th pct#19 / 69 · 74th pct#8 / 16 · 56th pct#2 / 10 · 90th pct
Opp574.4/gm#25 / 136 · 82nd pct#14 / 69 · 81st pct#2 / 16 · 94th pct#2 / 10 · 90th pct
First downs
Team31324.1/gm#14 / 136 · 90th pct#11 / 69 · 86th pct#4 / 16 · 81st pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Opp25819.8/gm#84 / 136 · 39th pct#48 / 69 · 32nd pct#12 / 16 · 31st pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
3rd-down conv
Team685.2/gm#72 / 136 · 48th pct#36 / 69 · 49th pct#10 / 16 · 44th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Opp786.0/gm#122 / 136 · 11th pct#65 / 69 · 7th pct#16 / 16 · 6th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
3rd-down att
Team13310.2/gm#136 / 136 · 1st pct#69 / 69 · 1st pct#16 / 16 · 6th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Opp18113.9/gm#81 / 136 · 41st pct#43 / 69 · 39th pct#10 / 16 · 44th pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct
4th-down conv
Team100.8/gm#100 / 136 · 27th pct#54 / 69 · 23rd pct#11 / 16 · 38th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Opp120.9/gm#49 / 136 · 65th pct#23 / 69 · 68th pct#8 / 16 · 56th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
4th-down att
Team181.4/gm#110 / 136 · 20th pct#54 / 69 · 23rd pct#10 / 16 · 44th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
Opp211.6/gm#34 / 136 · 76th pct#17 / 69 · 77th pct#7 / 16 · 62nd pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct
Time of possession
Team406:5931:18/gm#38 / 136 · 73rd pct#18 / 69 · 75th pct#6 / 16 · 69th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Opp373:0128:42/gm#54 / 136 · 61st pct#26 / 69 · 64th pct#8 / 16 · 56th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
Kicking & Punting
Field goals#5 / 135 · 97th pct13/14 (92.9%)
Extra points63/64
Punting#8 / 136 · 95th pct46.9 avg · 26 punts
Turnovers & special teams
Turnovers
Team120.9/gm#113 / 136 · 18th pct#56 / 69 · 20th pct#14 / 16 · 19th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Opp151.2/gm#49 / 136 · 65th pct#29 / 69 · 59th pct#7 / 16 · 62nd pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Fumbles lost
Team40.3/gm#112 / 136 · 18th pct#53 / 69 · 25th pct#13 / 16 · 25th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
Opp70.5/gm#71 / 136 · 49th pct#41 / 69 · 42nd pct#10 / 16 · 44th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
INT return TDs
Team00.0/gm#76 / 135 · 44th pct#39 / 69 · 45th pct#9 / 16 · 50th pct#6 / 11 · 55th pct
Opp00.0/gm#1 / 136 · 100th pct#1 / 69 · 100th pct#1 / 16 · 100th pct#1 / 11 · 100th pct
INT return yards
Team937.2/gm#86 / 136 · 38th pct#41 / 69 · 42nd pct#12 / 16 · 31st pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Opp826.3/gm#46 / 136 · 67th pct#24 / 69 · 67th pct#2 / 16 · 94th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Punt ret yds
Team1037.9/gm#87 / 136 · 37th pct#53 / 69 · 25th pct#14 / 16 · 19th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Opp594.5/gm#24 / 136 · 83rd pct#17 / 69 · 77th pct#5 / 16 · 75th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Punt ret TDs
Team10.1/gm#14 / 135 · 90th pct#11 / 69 · 86th pct#4 / 16 · 81st pct#1 / 10 · 100th pct
Opp00.0/gm#1 / 135 · 100th pct#1 / 69 · 100th pct#1 / 16 · 100th pct#1 / 11 · 100th pct
Kick ret yds
Team63548.8/gm#19 / 136 · 87th pct#7 / 69 · 91st pct#1 / 16 · 100th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Opp34426.5/gm#52 / 136 · 62nd pct#31 / 69 · 57th pct#8 / 16 · 56th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Kick ret TDs
Team00.0/gm#40 / 136 · 71st pct#17 / 69 · 77th pct#4 / 16 · 81st pct#4 / 11 · 73rd pct
Opp00.0/gm#1 / 135 · 100th pct#1 / 69 · 100th pct#1 / 16 · 100th pct#1 / 9 · 100th pct
Penalty yards
Team77659.7/gm#39 / 136 · 72nd pct#18 / 69 · 75th pct#7 / 16 · 62nd pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Opp81762.8/gm#113 / 136 · 18th pct#63 / 69 · 10th pct#15 / 16 · 12th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Other
H1 epa per play#1 / 162 · 100th pct#1 / 69 · 100th pct#1 / 16 · 100th pct0.40.0/gm
H2 epa per play#1 / 142 · 100th pct#1 / 69 · 100th pct#1 / 16 · 100th pct0.40.0/gm
Fumbles rec (def)#13 / 136 · 91st pct#9 / 69 · 88th pct#2 / 16 · 94th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct40.3/gm
Punt ret (opp)#17 / 136 · 88th pct#13 / 69 · 83rd pct#4 / 16 · 81st pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct80.6/gm
Penalties#34 / 136 · 76th pct#19 / 69 · 74th pct#7 / 16 · 62nd pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct896.8/gm
Kick returns#40 / 136 · 71st pct#12 / 69 · 84th pct#1 / 16 · 100th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct251.9/gm
Passes intercepted opponent#41 / 136 · 71st pct#24 / 69 · 67th pct#6 / 16 · 69th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct80.6/gm
First down pass rate#44 / 215 · 80th pct#11 / 69 · 86th pct#1 / 16 · 100th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct0.50.0/gm
H2 epa per play opponent#45 / 143 · 69th pct#28 / 69 · 61st pct#10 / 16 · 44th pct0.10.0/gm
Fumbles recovered#49 / 136 · 65th pct#19 / 69 · 74th pct#4 / 16 · 81st pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct70.5/gm
Kick ret (opp)#52 / 136 · 62nd pct#33 / 69 · 54th pct#10 / 16 · 44th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct181.4/gm
Recruiting rating#76 / 138 · 46th pct#66 / 69 · 6th pct#16 / 16 · 6th pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct173.013.3/gm
Interceptions (def)#84 / 136 · 39th pct#44 / 69 · 38th pct#13 / 16 · 25th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct80.6/gm
Punt returns#86 / 136 · 38th pct#51 / 69 · 28th pct#13 / 16 · 25th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct131.0/gm
Red zone pass rate#87 / 154 · 44th pct#39 / 69 · 45th pct#8 / 16 · 56th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct0.40.0/gm
Penalties (opp)#106 / 136 · 23rd pct#59 / 69 · 16th pct#14 / 16 · 19th pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct906.9/gm
Fourth down go rate#111 / 138 · 20th pct#56 / 69 · 20th pct#10 / 16 · 44th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct0.30.0/gm
H1 epa per play opponent#116 / 167 · 31st pct#58 / 69 · 17th pct#15 / 16 · 12th pct0.30.0/gm
Situational
3rd-down conversion
Off51.1%#6 / 136 · 96th pct#5 / 69 · 94th pct#1 / 16 · 100th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Def43.1%#112 / 136 · 18th pct#60 / 69 · 14th pct#14 / 16 · 19th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
4th-down conversion
Off55.6%#61 / 136 · 56th pct#38 / 69 · 46th pct#9 / 16 · 50th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Def57.1%#81 / 136 · 41st pct#41 / 69 · 42nd pct#12 / 16 · 31st pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
Turnover margin#46 / 136 · 67th pct#26 / 69 · 64th pct#7 / 16 · 62nd pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct+0.23/gm
Sack rate (def)#63 / 136 · 54th pct#39 / 69 · 45th pct#11 / 16 · 38th pct#3 / 10 · 80th pct6.8%
Red Zone & Drive Efficiency (2014– , play-by-play derived)
Red zone trips
Team584.5/gm#12 / 167 · 93rd pct#10 / 69 · 87th pct#3 / 16 · 88th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Opp393.0/gm#78 / 166 · 54th pct#29 / 69 · 59th pct#9 / 16 · 50th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Red zone score %
Team86.2%86.2%#31 / 167 · 82nd pct#16 / 69 · 78th pct#8 / 16 · 56th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Opp79.5%79.5%#92 / 166 · 45th pct#45 / 69 · 36th pct#10 / 16 · 44th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Points / drive
Team3.50.3/gm#1 / 167 · 100th pct#1 / 69 · 100th pct#1 / 16 · 100th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Opp2.00.2/gm#91 / 166 · 46th pct#51 / 69 · 28th pct#14 / 16 · 19th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Yards / drive
Team49.93.8/gm#6 / 167 · 97th pct#6 / 69 · 93rd pct#2 / 16 · 94th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Opp43.73.4/gm#129 / 166 · 23rd pct#60 / 69 · 14th pct#15 / 16 · 12th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Plays / drive
Team6.60.5/gm#79 / 167 · 53rd pct#41 / 69 · 42nd pct#11 / 16 · 38th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Opp7.20.6/gm#155 / 166 · 7th pct#66 / 69 · 6th pct#16 / 16 · 6th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Three-and-out rate
Team7.0%7.0%#15 / 167 · 92nd pct#10 / 69 · 87th pct#1 / 16 · 100th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Opp17.3%17.3%#30 / 166 · 83rd pct#16 / 69 · 78th pct#5 / 16 · 75th pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct
Scheme Identity (2014– , play-by-play derived)
Rush rate over expected#119 / 145 · 19th pct#57 / 69 · 19th pct#14 / 16 · 19th pct-5.9%-5.9%
Havoc rate
Team17.8%17.8%#32 / 140 · 78th pct#23 / 69 · 68th pct#8 / 16 · 56th pct
Opp12.7%12.7%#27 / 140 · 81st pct#13 / 69 · 83rd pct#3 / 16 · 88th pct
Standard-downs success
Team53.6%53.6%#15 / 154 · 91st pct#12 / 69 · 84th pct#3 / 16 · 88th pct
Opp47.5%47.5%#76 / 172 · 56th pct#38 / 69 · 46th pct#10 / 16 · 44th pct
Passing-downs success
Team49.2%49.2%#1 / 153 · 100th pct#1 / 69 · 100th pct#1 / 16 · 100th pct
Opp30.9%30.9%#80 / 149 · 47th pct#40 / 69 · 43rd pct#12 / 16 · 31st pct
Line yards / carry
Team3.43.4#8 / 143 · 95th pct#6 / 69 · 93rd pct#2 / 16 · 94th pct
Opp2.72.7#44 / 155 · 72nd pct#27 / 69 · 62nd pct#8 / 16 · 56th pct
Stuff rate
Team16.1%16.1%#39 / 143 · 73rd pct#22 / 69 · 70th pct#5 / 16 · 75th pct
Opp21.2%21.2%#38 / 155 · 76th pct#20 / 69 · 72nd pct#7 / 16 · 62nd pct
Power success rate
Team66.7%66.7%#88 / 137 · 36th pct#46 / 69 · 35th pct#11 / 16 · 38th pct
Opp79.3%79.3%#121 / 141 · 15th pct#61 / 69 · 13th pct#15 / 16 · 12th pct
Efficiency
Completion %
Off69.8%#7 / 136 · 96th pct#6 / 69 · 93rd pct#1 / 16 · 100th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Def66.6%#124 / 136 · 10th pct#64 / 69 · 9th pct#16 / 16 · 6th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Yards / attempt
Off9.3#4 / 136 · 98th pct#3 / 69 · 97th pct#1 / 16 · 100th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Def7.1#66 / 136 · 52nd pct#40 / 69 · 43rd pct#10 / 16 · 44th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Yards / completion
Off13.4#16 / 136 · 89th pct#8 / 69 · 90th pct#4 / 16 · 81st pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Def10.6#28 / 136 · 80th pct#22 / 69 · 70th pct#5 / 16 · 75th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Yards / carry#7 / 136 · 96th pct#5 / 69 · 94th pct#2 / 16 · 94th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct5.7
Yards / play#1 / 136 · 100th pct#1 / 69 · 100th pct#1 / 16 · 100th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct7.51
Scoring margin#13 / 136 · 91st pct#9 / 69 · 88th pct#2 / 16 · 94th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct+15.6/gm
FBS rankings · 2025 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
Player stats — 2025 season
Quarterbacks
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scrambler · +0.52 EPA/play | 2 | 13 | 267 / 378 | 70.6 | 3539 #14 FBS | 9.4 | 29 #9 FBS | 8 | 170.4 | 84.3 | 9.1 | 5.3 | |
Yards by week → Scrambler· Money-downMakes plays with feet when the pocket collapses. Efficiency still on the rise. saves his best for the money downs National Player-of-the-Year finalist — invited to the closing-night ceremony — trending, not yet confirmed. 45 of 183 QBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Rush usage30.6% 78th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Yards / attempt10.3 99th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like our readTwo-star recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile our readAscending: his CFB Index score moved from the 88th to 100th percentile among FBS QBs | |||||||||||||
| +0.62 EPA/play | 19 | 6 | 9 / 17 | 52.9 | 131 | 7.7 | 1 | 0 | 137.1 | 55.8 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||||
Running Backs
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Stuff% | 10+% | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Back · +0.41 EPA/play | 28 | 13 | 106 | 570 | 5.4 | 11 #38 FBS | 65 | 9.7 | 9.2 | 12 | 11 | 6.2% (23/372) | |
Yards by week → Balanced BackPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 186 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / carry5.8 67th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Rush TD rate10.4% 99th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score moved from the 55th to 87th percentile among FBS RBs | |||||||||||||
| Satellite Back · +0.52 EPA/play | 22 | 13 | 45 | 411 | 9.1 | 6 | 80 | 2.4 | 4.9 | — | — | — | |
Yards by week → Satellite BackDeployed as a receiver as much as a runner. Value is in space, not between the tackles. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 50 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Receiving share23.7% 97th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / carry11.2 100th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like our readTwo-star recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile | |||||||||||||
Receivers
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Threat · +0.66 EPA/play | 6 | 13 | 47 | 810 #66 FBS | 17.2 | 7 #38 FBS | 75 | 9.6 | 10.5 | 18.5% (69/372) | |
Yards by week → Deep Threat· Return threatStretches the field vertically. Every snap is a potential big play. a house-call threat every time he fields it Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 100 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception19.0 86th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate14.9% 85th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Tre Richardson's full player page | |||||||||||
| Slot Technician · +0.82 EPA/play | — | 13 | 54 | 784 #73 FBS | 14.5 | 7 #38 FBS | 46 | 8.9 | 13.6 | 19.1% (71/372) | |
Yards by week → Slot TechnicianRuns precise routes in tight quarters. Volume player who keeps chains moving. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 97 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Reception volume54 85th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.8 90th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score climbed from the 53rd percentile to the 90th among FBS WRs | |||||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.66 EPA/play | 9 | 12 | 61 | 765 | 12.5 | 4 | 67 | 14.9 | 17.8 | 21.5% (80/372) | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. Unanimous All-American — 1st team on all five NCAA-recognized selectors. 177 of 223 TEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception13.5 67th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Reception volume61 100th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score climbed from the 97th percentile to the 100th among FBS TEs | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.54 EPA/play | 5 | 12 | 28 | 321 | 11.5 | 3 | 53 | 7.7 | 6.2 | 8.9% (33/372) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. The most common profile in its group this season — 332 of 558 classified this way. Played in 12 of 21 games this season · senior View Richie Hoskins's full player page | |||||||||||
| Move TE · +0.95 EPA/play | 16 | 7 | 15 | 233 | 15.5 | 2 | 33 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 4.3% (16/372) | |
Yards by week → Move TELined up out wide as often as inline. Creates mismatches downfield. 34 of 223 TEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception14.6 86th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.9 89th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Cole Spence's full player page | |||||||||||
| +0.41 EPA/play | 3 | 6 | 10 | 137 | 13.7 | 0 | 28 | 1.8 | 3.2 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
| +0.32 EPA/play | 81 | 9 | 6 | 53 | 8.8 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 0.8 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
Defensive Line
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 96 | 13 | 30 | 11 | 8.5 | 3.5 | 9 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate28.3% 93th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readBreakout: his CFB Index score moved from the 42nd to 88th percentile among FBS IDLs | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 15 | 13 | 28 | 11 | 4.5 | 4 | 7 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate16.1% 56th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readUnranked recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 99 | 11 | 27 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate22.2% 79th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readBreakout: his CFB Index score moved from the 14th to 51st percentile among FBS IDLs | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 92 | 12 | 23 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. The most common profile in its group this season — 388 of 809 classified this way. Played in 12 of 21 games this season · senior View Jaylon Stone's full player page | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 53 | 11 | 19 | 9 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
Nose AnchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. 152 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight340 lb 98th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Glenn Seabrooks's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 95 | 10 | 15 | 7 | 3.5 | 3 | 4 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate23.3% 82th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score climbed from the 26th percentile to the 51st among FBS IDLs | |||||||
| 94 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 54 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
Linebackers
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Linebacker | 11 | 13 | 70 | 36 | 34 | 8.5 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 362 of 660 classified this way. Played in 13 of 21 games this season · junior · 3-star, 2023 class View Bryan Longwell's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 10 | 13 | 69 | 27 | 42 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 362 of 660 classified this way. Played in 13 of 21 games this season · senior · 3-star, 2022 class View Langston Patterson's full player page | |||||||||
| Coverage 'Backer | 2 | 13 | 51 | 30 | 21 | 6.5 | 0 | 6 | 0 |
Coverage 'BackerCarries tight ends and patrols the middle of the field in coverage. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 99 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate11.8% 100th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Sack rate0.0% bottom 23th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like our readFading: his CFB Index score went from the 92nd percentile among FBS LBs to the 60th | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 24 | 12 | 47 | 20 | 27 | 7 | 3.5 | 1 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 362 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume47 bottom 45th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Sack rate7.4% 81th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like our readUnranked recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile | |||||||||
| Versatile End | 29 | 13 | 37 | 17 | 20 | 9 | 4.5 | 1 | 0 |
Versatile EndNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 139 of 200 EDGEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate24.3% 66th percentile · FBS EDGE, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Miles Capers's full player page | |||||||||
| Sideline-to-Sideline | 22 | 13 | 32 | 20 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
Sideline-to-SidelineRanges from hash to hash and makes his own tackles. 102 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Solo tackle rate0.6 88th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Sack rate9.4% 90th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like our readReinvented: changed shape entirely — Coverage 'Backer to Sideline-to-Sideline, his CFB Index score moved from the 6th to 61st percentile among FBS LBs | |||||||||
| Sideline-to-Sideline | 20 | 7 | 15 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Sideline-to-SidelineRanges from hash to hash and makes his own tackles. 102 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Solo tackle rate0.6 83th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Tackle volume15 bottom 10th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Prince Kollie's full player page | |||||||||
| Speed Rusher | 9 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Speed RusherBends the edge and wins with first-step quickness. Lighter frame, relentless motor. 12 of 200 EDGEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Sack rate30.0% 99th percentile · FBS EDGE, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Keanu Koht's full player page | |||||||||
| 34 | 6 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 40 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Defensive Backs
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Box Safety | 8 | 13 | 71 | 3 | 1 | 3.5 | 2 |
Box SafetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 166 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume71 92th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score climbed from the 57th percentile to the 86th among FBS Ss | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 7 | 12 | 52 | 2 | 0 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 419 of 801 classified this way. Played in 12 of 21 games this season · senior · 3-star, 2021 class our readAscending: his CFB Index score went from the 5th percentile among FBS Ss to the 45th | |||||||
| Cover Corner | 4 | 13 | 35 | 2 | 4 #23 FBS | 0 | 0 |
Cover Corner· Takeaway threatSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. the kind of DB who takes it back the other way All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 141 of 270 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate5.7% bottom 21th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readSustained Ascent: his CFB Index score shows two real climbs in a row — 34th to 80th to 93rd percentile among FBS CBs | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 1 | 13 | 33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 419 of 801 classified this way. Played in 13 of 21 games this season · sophomore · 4-star, 2024 class View Dontae Carter's full player page | |||||||
| Press Corner | 3 | 12 | 25 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Press CornerLong and physical; jams receivers off their route at the line. 43 of 270 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Height6'3" 96th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readBreakout: his CFB Index score now sits at the 61st percentile among FBS CBs, up from the 5th | |||||||
| Press Corner | 17 | 10 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 2.5 | 0 |
Press CornerLong and physical; jams receivers off their route at the line. 43 of 270 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Height6'2" 87th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Mark Davis Jr.'s full player page | |||||||
| Press Corner | 6 | 10 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Press CornerLong and physical; jams receivers off their route at the line. 43 of 270 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Height6'2" 87th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Jordan Matthews's full player page | |||||||
| Cover Corner | 27 | 8 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Cover CornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. 141 of 270 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate0.0% bottom 8th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Jaylin Lackey's full player page | |||||||
| 23 | 7 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| — | 5 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 26 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Kicking
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 88 | 13 | 13/14 | 92.9 | 60/61 | 99 | 51 |
Punting
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cannon | 38 | 11 | 26 | 1219 | 46.9 | 59 | 12 | 2 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
Kick Returns
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Threat · +0.66 EPA/play | 6 | 13 | 18 | 526 | 29.2 | 0 | 99 |
Punt Returns
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cover Corner | 4 | 13 | 11 | 76 | 6.9 | 0 | 19 |
2025 stat leaders
final
2025 stat leaders
1.
Diego Pavia
QB
3,539 yds (pass)
2.
C.J. Heard
S
71.0 tot (def)
3.
Bryan Longwell
LB
70.0 tot (def)
4.
Langston Patterson
LB
69.0 tot (def)
5.
Tre Richardson
WR
810 yds (rec)
Roster
2025
26
players carry a qualified CFB Index Score this season.
Diego Pavia
QB
#1 of 146
Eli Stowers
TE
#2 of 156
Junior Sherrill
WR
#57 of 485
Martel Hight
CB
#46 of 364
Tre Richardson
WR
#62 of 485
Zaylin Wood
EDGE
#57 of 420
+20 more
Vanderbilt · 2025 schedule & results10-3Brutal slateAverage opponent win rate 48% · 7 AP top-25 opponents on the schedule. 4 ranked wins banked (time-of-game rank).
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 30 | #49 | #237 | -38.5 | Charleston Southern | W 45–3 59 | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 6 | #63 | #26 | +1.5 | @Virginia Tech | W 44–20 117 | 2-0 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 13 | #35 | #27 | +2.5 | @South CarolinaTop 25 win | W 31–7 126 | 3-0 | 1-0 |
| 4 | Sep 20 | #26 | #144 | -26.5 | Georgia State | W 70–21 138 | 4-0 | 1-0 |
| 5 | Sep 27 | #26 | #114 | -24.5 | Utah State | W 55–35 126 | 5-0 | 1-0 |
| 6 | Oct 4 | #26 | #6 | +13.5 | @Alabama | L 14–30 122 | 5-1 | 1-1 |
| 8 | Oct 18 | #26 | #12 | -1.5 | LSUTop 10 win | W 31–24 116 | 6-1 | 2-1 |
| 9 | Oct 25 | #25 | #19 | -3 | MissouriTop 25 win | W 17–10 123 | 7-1 | 3-1 |
| 10 | Nov 1 | #27 | #13 | +3.5 | @Texas | L 31–34 122 | 7-2 | 3-2 |
| 11 | Nov 8 | #25 | #37 | -5.5 | Auburn | W 45–38 151 | 8-2 | 4-2 |
| 13 | Nov 22 | #28 | #41 | -6.5 | Kentucky | W 45–17 137 | 9-2 | 5-2 |
| 14 | Nov 29 | #18 | #13 | +2.5 | @TennesseeTop 25 win | W 45–24 140 | 10-2 | 6-2 |
| Bowl Season | ||||||||
| 18 | Dec 31 | #13 | #22 | -3 | Iowa (N) | L 27–34 | 10-3 | 6-2 |
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)▼
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31 | Iowa | L 27–34 | — | — | — | +0.258 | 34.4% | 169.1% | Most explosive |
| Nov 29 | @Tennessee | W 45–24 | 579 | 2 | 34:59 | +0.591 | 56.7% | 146.6% | |
| Nov 22 | Kentucky | W 45–17 | 604 | 1 | 36:13 | +0.471 | 51.4% | 152.7% | Blowout win |
| Nov 8 | Auburn | W 45–38 | 544 | 1 | 31:00 | +0.416 | 50.7% | 150.8% | Defense's roughest night |
| Nov 1 | @Texas | L 31–34 | 423 | 1 | 30:59 | +0.321 | 46.2% | 155.2% | One-score loss |
| Oct 25 | Missouri | W 17–10 | 265 | 1 | 23:48 | +0.153 | 25.5% | 165.1% | One-score win |
| Oct 18 | LSU | W 31–24 | 399 | 0 | 36:31 | +0.311 | 47.8% | 125.9% | One-score win |
| Oct 4 | @Alabama | L 14–30 | 334 | 2 | 22:37 | +0.102 | 46.3% | 113.9% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 27 | Utah State | W 55–35 | 546 | 1 | 33:17 | +0.525 | 59.4% | 129.3% | |
| Sep 20 | Georgia State | W 70–21 | 636 | 0 | 29:49 | +0.585 | 58.6% | 152.1% | Blowout win |
| Sep 13 | @South Carolina | W 31–7 | 323 | 1 | 35:43 | +0.273 | 48.4% | 126.8% | |
| Sep 6 | @Virginia Tech | W 44–20 | 490 | 2 | 32:12 | +0.701 | 61.1% | 148.0% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Aug 30 | Charleston Southern | W 45–3 | 481 | 0 | 32:09 | +0.563 | 61.0% | 120.8% | Best defensive stand |
| Season average (13 games) | 469 | 1.0 | +0.405 | 49.8% | 142.8% | ||||
How They Play · 2025
How They Play · 2025Vanderbilt fields an elite offense behind a leaky, gives up the big play defense.
Opponent-adjusted percentiles vs all FBS. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Team identity · competitive snaps only
How Vanderbilt actually scores
100th percentile quality, 0th percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 86th | 11th |
| Akron | 12th | 89th |
| Alabama | 58th | 17th |
| App State | 35th | 47th |
| Arizona | 64th | 37th |
| Arizona State | 41st | 62nd |
| Arkansas | 90th | 12th |
| Arkansas State | 17th | 66th |
| Army | 57th | 43rd |
| Auburn | 47th | 53rd |
| BYU | 78th | 19th |
| Baylor | 69th | 25th |
| Boise State | 66th | 20th |
| Boston College | 37th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 2nd | 98th |
| Buffalo | 11th | 88th |
| California | 28th | 48th |
| Central Michigan | 52nd | 64th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 16th |
| Clemson | 51st | 48th |
| Coastal Carolina | 17th | 83rd |
| Colorado | 18th | 84th |
| Colorado State | 16th | 83rd |
| Delaware | 38th | 58th |
| Duke | 80th | 14th |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 36th |
| Eastern Michigan | 49th | 42nd |
| Florida | 30th | 67th |
| Florida Atlantic | 62nd | 59th |
| Florida International | 42nd | 50th |
| Florida State | 83rd | 32nd |
| Fresno State | 26th | 73rd |
| Georgia | 81st | 3rd |
| Georgia Southern | 73rd | 21st |
| Georgia State | 36th | 70th |
| Georgia Tech | 84th | 5th |
| Hawai'i | 64th | 41st |
| Houston | 27th | 65th |
| Illinois | 75th | 26th |
| Indiana | 95th | 1st |
| Iowa | 44th | 40th |
| Iowa State | 68th | 22nd |
| Jacksonville State | 54th | 38th |
| James Madison | 65th | 44th |
| Kansas | 85th | 28th |
| Kansas State | 71st | 49th |
| Kennesaw State | 56th | 30th |
| Kent State | 21st | 86th |
| Kentucky | 15th | 85th |
| LSU | 14th | 81st |
| Liberty | 43rd | 56th |
| Louisiana | 19th | 73rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 39th | 61st |
| Louisville | 48th | 64th |
| Marshall | 55th | 39th |
| Maryland | 30th | 74th |
| Memphis | 80th | 24th |
| Miami | 76th | 5th |
| Miami (OH) | 34th | 67th |
| Michigan | 67th | 33rd |
| Michigan State | 27th | 75th |
| Middle Tennessee | 39th | 52nd |
| Minnesota | 29th | 77th |
| Mississippi State | 22nd | 77th |
| Missouri | 61st | 30th |
| Missouri State | 55th | 46th |
| NC State | 86th | 23rd |
| Navy | 94th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 48th | 57th |
| Nevada | 3rd | 97th |
| New Mexico | 58th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 9th | 87th |
| North Carolina | 13th | 89th |
| North Texas | 98th | 7th |
| Northern Illinois | 8th | 92nd |
| Northwestern | 52nd | 36th |
| Notre Dame | 99th | 20th |
| Ohio | 67th | 18th |
| Ohio State | 93rd | 4th |
| Oklahoma | 20th | 80th |
| Oklahoma State | 5th | 95th |
| Old Dominion | 83rd | 45th |
| Ole Miss | 89th | 2nd |
| Oregon | 91st | 10th |
| Oregon State | 2nd | 98th |
| Penn State | 73rd | 33rd |
| Pittsburgh | 60th | 39th |
| Purdue | 25th | 78th |
| Rice | 6th | 94th |
| Rutgers | 70th | 27th |
| SMU | 74th | 42nd |
| Sam Houston | 4th | 96th |
| San Diego State | 24th | 76th |
| San José State | 45th | 69th |
| South Alabama | 36th | 58th |
| South Carolina | 23rd | 86th |
| South Florida | 87th | 23rd |
| Southern Miss | 40th | 55th |
| Stanford | 10th | 90th |
| Syracuse | 5th | 95th |
| TCU | 72nd | 35th |
| Temple | 70th | 34th |
| Tennessee | 96th | 11th |
| Texas | 45th | 55th |
| Texas A&M | 82nd | 14th |
| Texas State | 92nd | 8th |
| Texas Tech | 77th | 31st |
| Toledo | 50th | 61st |
| Troy | 14th | 80th |
| Tulane | 79th | 15th |
| Tulsa | 20th | 70th |
| UAB | 61st | 45th |
| UCF | 33rd | 82nd |
| UCLA | 23rd | 79th |
| UConn | 95th | 13th |
| UL Monroe | 11th | 92nd |
| UNLV | 88th | 9th |
| USC | 98th | 2nd |
| UTEP | 1st | 99th |
| UTSA | 77th | 51st |
| Utah | 97th | 6th |
| Utah State | 46th | 63rd |
| Vanderbilt | 100th | 0th |
| Virginia | 59th | 27th |
| Virginia Tech | 32nd | 71st |
| Wake Forest | 42nd | 72nd |
| Washington | 92nd | 8th |
| Washington State | 33rd | 52nd |
| West Virginia | 7th | 93rd |
| Western Kentucky | 53rd | 29th |
| Western Michigan | 31st | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 0th | 100th |
| Wyoming | 8th | 91st |
Fourth-quarter reliability, corrected
Vanderbilt's 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 98th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it drops to the 90th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
Does Vanderbilt hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?
90th percentile success on standard downs, 100th on passing downs — little dropoff between the two — a schedule-independent identity.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 82nd | 69th |
| Akron | 20th | 36th |
| Alabama | 47th | 76th |
| App State | 41st | 80th |
| Arizona | 54th | 54th |
| Arizona State | 40th | 37th |
| Arkansas | 90th | 97th |
| Arkansas State | 51st | 40th |
| Army | 37th | 44th |
| Auburn | 73rd | 24th |
| Austin Peay | 56th | 13th |
| BYU | 91st | 46th |
| Ball State | 5th | 3rd |
| Baylor | 70th | 77th |
| Boise State | 42nd | 63rd |
| Boston College | 56th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 10th | 17th |
| Bryant | 7th | 2nd |
| Buffalo | 29th | 20th |
| California | 25th | 66th |
| Central Michigan | 57th | 11th |
| Charlotte | 7th | 7th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 65th |
| Clemson | 49th | 34th |
| Coastal Carolina | 16th | 22nd |
| Colorado | 8th | 48th |
| Colorado State | 29th | 35th |
| Delaware | 66th | 31st |
| Duke | 82nd | 63rd |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 91st |
| Eastern Michigan | 46th | 67th |
| Florida | 52nd | 45th |
| Florida Atlantic | 44th | 61st |
| Florida International | 50th | 26th |
| Florida State | 65th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 22nd | 71st |
| Georgia | 95th | 69th |
| Georgia Southern | 64th | 84th |
| Georgia State | 22nd | 75th |
| Georgia Tech | 92nd | 89th |
| Hawai'i | 33rd | 87th |
| Houston | 61st | 29th |
| Idaho | 30th | 78th |
| Idaho State | 93rd | 14th |
| Illinois | 79th | 95th |
| Indiana | 97th | 98th |
| Iowa | 74th | 19th |
| Iowa State | 80th | 58th |
| Jacksonville State | 59th | 56th |
| James Madison | 77th | 52nd |
| Kansas | 99th | 82nd |
| Kansas State | 37th | 59th |
| Kennesaw State | 44th | 67th |
| Kent State | 15th | 5th |
| Kentucky | 62nd | 29th |
| LSU | 18th | 52nd |
| Lafayette | 0th | 12th |
| Liberty | 65th | 53rd |
| Lindenwood | 4th | 1st |
| Long Island University | 24th | 78th |
| Louisiana | 24th | 23rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 41st | 24th |
| Louisville | 84th | 32nd |
| Maine | 3rd | 18th |
| Marshall | 71st | 62nd |
| Maryland | 11th | 86th |
| Massachusetts | 5th | 9th |
| Memphis | 75th | 68th |
| Merrimack | 1st | 83rd |
| Miami | 80th | 64th |
| Miami (OH) | 33rd | 39th |
| Michigan | 73rd | 74th |
| Michigan State | 48th | 39th |
| Middle Tennessee | 69th | 47th |
| Minnesota | 35th | 33rd |
| Mississippi State | 52nd | 35th |
| Missouri | 76th | 50th |
| Missouri State | 32nd | 50th |
| Murray State | 1st | 6th |
| NC State | 58th | 71st |
| Navy | 95th | 72nd |
| Nebraska | 78th | 51st |
| Nevada | 17th | 16th |
| New Mexico | 38th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 16th | 33rd |
| North Carolina | 14th | 30th |
| North Texas | 100th | 97th |
| Northern Illinois | 9th | 5th |
| Northwestern | 48th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 88th | 99th |
| Ohio | 69th | 76th |
| Ohio State | 99th | 99th |
| Oklahoma | 39th | 41st |
| Oklahoma State | 14th | 7th |
| Old Dominion | 72nd | 79th |
| Ole Miss | 83rd | 95th |
| Oregon | 93rd | 55th |
| Oregon State | 54th | 25th |
| Penn State | 76th | 73rd |
| Pittsburgh | 35th | 56th |
| Purdue | 46th | 88th |
| Rice | 20th | 0th |
| Rutgers | 71st | 84th |
| SMU | 50th | 57th |
| Sam Houston | 26th | 4th |
| San Diego State | 84th | 1st |
| San José State | 68th | 70th |
| South Alabama | 53rd | 28th |
| South Carolina | 31st | 8th |
| South Carolina State | 10th | 3rd |
| South Florida | 86th | 46th |
| Southern Miss | 27th | 38th |
| Stanford | 12th | 12th |
| Syracuse | 19th | 10th |
| TCU | 63rd | 82nd |
| Temple | 85th | 22nd |
| Tennessee | 97th | 81st |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 88th | 59th |
| Texas State | 60th | 93rd |
| Texas Tech | 45th | 65th |
| Toledo | 67th | 42nd |
| Troy | 18th | 27th |
| Tulane | 81st | 86th |
| Tulsa | 43rd | 43rd |
| UAB | 34th | 94th |
| UCF | 39th | 20th |
| UCLA | 28th | 48th |
| UConn | 96th | 37th |
| UL Monroe | 13th | 14th |
| UNLV | 78th | 85th |
| USC | 94th | 90th |
| UT Martin | 2nd | 41st |
| UTEP | 3rd | 10th |
| UTSA | 67th | 92nd |
| Utah | 87th | 96th |
| Utah State | 31st | 49th |
| Vanderbilt | 90th | 100th |
| Virginia | 36th | 73rd |
| Virginia Tech | 59th | 21st |
| Wake Forest | 21st | 31st |
| Washington | 98th | 93rd |
| Washington State | 61st | 44th |
| West Virginia | 12th | 18th |
| Western Kentucky | 55th | 80th |
| Western Michigan | 86th | 16th |
| Wisconsin | 6th | 27th |
| Wyoming | 23rd | 15th |
Halftime identity
Vanderbilt by half
1st-half offense ranks 100th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 100th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
Schedule mirage
How much of Vanderbilt's number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.41; 99th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.13. The widest gap came in week 1: 0.56 raw vs. 0.05 adjusted.
Vanderbilt reads strongest in epa / play (top 1%) and rushing epa (top 2%); the crux lives in passing epa allowed, where Vanderbilt sits at the 16th percentile.
offense · strengths lead
defense · higher bar = harder to play against
hidden math · special situations
ELITE · 90+STRONG · 70+AVERAGE · 40-70CONCERN · 10-40BOTTOM · <10
Most Similar Programs · Vanderbilt
Most Similar Programs · VanderbiltReads Like
MarylandTier 5 · Similarly-sized rosters up frontUConnTier 5 · Roughly similar size up frontUMassTier 5 · Roughly similar size up front
Static-attribute similarity across tier, archetype, conference, and voice. Not a prediction — a calibration.
Home-Field Advantage · Vanderbilt · 2018-present
Strong
46% home win rate vs 24% on the road. margin runs +6.2 better at home. FirstBank Stadium seats 40,351, averaging 73% full (29,583 attendance, 25 games reported).
Home24-28Away10-31
Positional competition · RB room
The carries are split. The job isn’t.
Sedrick Alexander and Makhilyn Young split the carries (101/146 vs 45/146) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Makhilyn Young produces in bigger chunks.
Sedrick AlexanderMakhilyn Young
Carries
the baseline -- every row below is tested against this split, not a flat 50/50
Inside the 5
shared -- dots touch, this room really is a committee here
Targets
shared -- dots touch, this room really is a committee here
Top-5-carry share
concentration and EPA/carry agree -- a real boom/bust split
Screened 3 claims, 1 survived, 2 falsified
Positional competition · WR/TE room
The targets are split. The job isn’t.
Tre Richardson (WR) and Eli Stowers (TE) split the targets (68/146 vs 78/146) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Tre Richardson produces in bigger chunks.
Tre RichardsonEli Stowers
Targets
the baseline -- every row below is tested against this split, not a flat 50/50
3rd-down targets
shared -- dots touch, this room really is a committee here
Top-5-catch share
concentration and EPA/target agree -- a real boom/bust split
Screened 2 claims, 1 survived, 1 falsified
What changed
Vanderbilt’s play-calling, before and after the change
Offense: Joey Lynch (2022–2023) → Tim Beck (2024–2025)
The biggest shift: 4th-down go rate moved down 18 points. The rest held closer to steady.
1st-down pass rate
Red-zone pass rate
4th-down go rate
Defense: Nick Howell (2022–2023) → co-Steve Gregory (2024–2025)
The biggest shift: 4th-down go rate moved down 18 points. The rest held closer to steady.
1st-down pass rate
Red-zone pass rate
4th-down go rate
Season by season
How Vanderbilt’s current staff calls plays, year over year
Offense: Tim Beck (2024–2025)
1st-down pass rate
2024: 33% → 2025: 50% · 17-pt range · #21 of 171 · more than most
Red-zone pass rate
2024: 34% → 2025: 36% · 2-pt range · #169 of 171 · less than most
4th-down go rate
2024: 25% → 2025: 29% · 4-pt range · #166 of 171 · less than most
Defense: co-Steve Gregory (2024–2025)
1st-down pass rate
2024: 33% → 2025: 50% · 17-pt range · #29 of 189 · more than most
Red-zone pass rate
2024: 34% → 2025: 36% · 2-pt range · #188 of 189 · less than most
4th-down go rate
2024: 25% → 2025: 29% · 4-pt range · #183 of 188 · less than most
Defensive identity · pass zones
What this defense gives up, by zone.
On short passes, Vanderbilt’s defense allows a completion rate above the FBS mean (69.8% vs 65.9% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 193-play sample) — mid-pack, 123 of 133 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball leaderboard here: at the defense level, most teams face well under 30 rich-feed deep targets all season — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess.
Screened 133 claims, 133 survived · 2025 only, in the 399 games with the detailed play-text feed; n=193 short-zone plays faced, raw rate 72.5%
Historical echo
Vanderbilt’s breakout has happened before — and 1 of the 4 closest programs couldn’t hold it.
Programs whose stature climbed in the same shape. The grey line is their run; the color is what came next for them.
Western Michigan 1996–2001
fell back
Colorado State 1982–1987
kept climbing
New Mexico 1955–1960
kept climbing
Kansas 1943–1948
kept climbing
An analogy on the shape of a program’s Zeitgeist stature arc — not a prediction. Interim calibration, medium confidence; matched among current FBS programs at a comparable level.
Venue texture
68°F average kickoff temp; 11% of games had measurable precipitation; 7 mph average wind.
Based on 79 home games with weather data.
The CFP Era
12 seasons inside the CFP era, no bids yet — the era the program is still trying to break into.
TRAJECTORY · quality-score line · AP rank dotted · CFP bids marked · coach regimes ribboned
Program Quality
AP Rank (inverted)
CFP Appearance
Vanderbilt's 2014–2025 record is 53-92. The era is still being written; the CFP line is the one the program is arguing for.
Vanderbilt – Tennessee
In-state SEC rivalry 116 meetings since 1902 See the whole history →
Heat trajectory
Week-by-week rivalry heat isn't tracked yet for this matchup — check back as the 2026-27 season approaches and real fan-intel signal accumulates.
Fan Heat Index
Who's more worked up right now
Cross-fanbase rivalry sentiment for this matchup hasn't been measured yet this week — both sides show as neutral until real signal comes in.
Vanderbilt
Awaiting
Tennessee
Awaiting
Vanderbilt
—
Tennessee
—
THE LAST 5 · year-by-year
- W 2025 Win 45–24
- L 2024 Loss 23–36
- L 2023 Loss 24–48
- L 2022 Loss 0–56
- L 2021 Loss 21–45
All-Time Record
573-652-43
since 1899 · 123 seasons · .451 win rate
HOME
396-305-18
AWAY
172-342-24
NEUTRAL
5-5-1
1890s
1900s
1910s
1920s
1930s
1940s
1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
Program résumé
4Conf. titles
10Bowl apps
1886Founded
The program, in full — read the essay
Diego Pavia was a transfer quarterback nobody else was recruiting. In 2025, he threw and ran for 36 touchdowns, finished second in Heisman voting, and quarterbacked Vanderbilt to a 10-3 season ranked No. 14 in the country — the best in the program's modern history. Now Pavia is gone, and the Commodores are the team that has to prove what they actually built.
Vanderbilt is the oldest continuously operating football program in the Deep South — founded in 1886, in the SEC's hardest structural slot, a private research university whose admissions standards are a recruiting filter no other league member carries. Dan McGugin won four conference titles before 1924. What followed was a century of proof that the institution and the league were not made for each other. Until 2024's Alabama upset. Until 2025.
The 10-3 season changed the register. Not the way a feel-good upset changes it — the way evidence changes it. Six-and-two in SEC play. Diego Pavia completing 3,192 passing yards and 826 rushing yards behind a scheme Clark Lea built specifically around what nobody else valued. The Heisman runner-up. A No. 14 final ranking. The Commodores lost to Iowa in the ReliaQuest Bowl 34-27 in the final game, and Pavia aged out of eligibility without a named successor waiting. The internal fracture in Nashville is clean: one side says Lea built the model, not just the roster; the other says the 2025 version required Diego Pavia and no other quarterback in the portal is Diego Pavia.
The 2026 season is the only honest test of which side is right. Lea enters spring without a named starting quarterback and a fanbase that has waited since 1923 for the league title the 2025 team gave them reason to believe in. Whether the breakthrough was a floor or a ceiling is what the schedule will adjudicate — in the league where it is hardest to be wrong.
How they play
Anchor Down — scheme-driven and built around finding the quarterback nobody else valued, then maximizing him in a system that treats the run as a complementary weapon rather than an afterthought. Lea's defense is the program's structural constant; the offense reshapes around the personnel it can get. Vanderbilt does not out-recruit the SEC. It out-schemes it, and the 2025 season was the proof of concept.
Steady
Vanderbilt 2016–2025. Holding the line. The 10-year slope (+0.18 rungs / yr) doesn't tilt either way — the program lives at roughly Tier 2.
CFP Era · Vanderbilt
12 seasons on file
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
down middle peak CFP year
Season Standing · 2025 · 10-3 · CFP #14 / AP #13
Season Standing · 2025 · 10-3 · CFP #14 / AP #13Top 15
Vanderbilt: Top 15 nationally. NY6-bowl conversation.
R0R1R2R3R4R5R6R7R8R9
Sub-FBSBuildingBowlRankedContenderPlayoff
SEC Standing · 2025
6th in the SEC
Vanderbilt sits 6th of 16 in the SEC at 6-2. Mid-conference — moves up or down depend on rivalry results and the late-season closing run.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ole Miss | 8-1 |
| 2 | Alabama | 8-2 |
| 3 | Georgia | 8-2 |
| 4 | Texas A&M | 7-1 |
| 5 | Texas | 6-2 |
| 6 | Vanderbilt | 6-2 |
| 7 | Oklahoma | 6-3 |
| 8 | Missouri | 4-4 |
| 9 | Tennessee | 4-4 |
| 10 | LSU | 3-5 |
| 11 | Florida | 2-6 |
| 12 | Kentucky | 2-6 |
| 13 | Auburn | 1-7 |
| 14 | Mississippi State | 1-7 |
| 15 | South Carolina | 1-7 |
| 16 | Arkansas | 0-8 |
Coaching Era · Vanderbilt
Coaching Era · VanderbiltClark Lea
Clark Lea has held the program for 6 seasons — the era is established.
Era Clark Lea · 2021–presentPrev: Derek Mason (2014–2020)OC: Tim BeckPrev OC: Joey Lynch (2022–2023)DC: Steve GregoryPrev DC: Nick Howell (2022–2023)
6
years · era
Rituals
Three gameday rituals — the ones outsiders never quite catch.
Anchor Down
since 2014 (formalization under Derek Mason)
'Anchor Down' is the team's institutional motto since Derek Mason's tenure, referencing both the nautical Commodore branding and the underdog 'plant your flag, stay grounded' ethos. Used on uniforms, signage, social media handles. The phrase outlasted Mason and is now the canonical Vandy ethos. Quieter than 'Roll Tide' or 'Hook 'em' — by design.
Star Walk
since 2015
Players walk from Memorial Gymnasium through fans to FirstBank Stadium. Vanderbilt's version of the Tiger Walk / Dawg Walk — smaller crowd by SEC standards, more intimate by every other standard. The walk passes through the Star Walk of fame, where alumni are honored with sidewalk stars.
Mr. Commodore
since 1990s
The costumed Mr. Commodore mascot — a uniformed naval officer with a saber, referencing Cornelius Vanderbilt's shipping fortune (and the 'Commodore' rank Vanderbilt held in the merchant marine). Distinct from generic mascots; the historical reference is precise. Mr. C is a working naval officer figure, not a cartoon.
Dynamite (fight song)
since 1938
Written by Francis Craig in 1938. 'Dynamite, dynamite, when Vandy starts to fight!' The Spirit of Gold marching band plays it constantly. Less universally recognized than Boomer Sooner or Hail to the Victors, but Vanderbilt fans treasure it specifically because it's theirs — the academic-elite SEC outlier needs its own anthem.
The Vandy Whistle (and Goalpost Tradition)
since 2024 (Diego Pavia Alabama upset)
After Vanderbilt beat Alabama 40-35 on Oct 5, 2024 (the first such win since 1984), fans tore down the goalposts and marched them through downtown Nashville, ultimately depositing one in the Cumberland River. The Vandy Whistle now refers to the entire post-upset celebration ritual. Whether this becomes recurring depends on Diego Pavia's career; the 2024 vintage is canonized.
The Chronicle
Diego Pavia carried 25 straight weeks of Vanderbilt's conversation
Pavia posted a .60 WEPA passing across 384 plays and .36 rushing across 145 more — positive production on both — while holding 25 weeks of measurable attention and a peak score of 7.68. Anchor Down: the offense ran through Pavia, and the conversation followed him every week since August.
gamelog + roster archive · Diego Pavia · 2025Vanderbilt's win over Georgia State beat its own average by 33 points
The Commodores' 70-21 win over Georgia State in Week 4 landed 33.4 points above the team's season-average margin of 15.6 — itself already a positive number, on a roster that wasn't supposed to be posting winning margins like that. Anchor Down: Vanderbilt does not apologize for where it plays from, and that fall the scoreboard agreed.
gamelog · 2025 season · wk 4Vanderbilt's rushing offense ranks at the 99th percentile of FBS
Vanderbilt's rushing EPA sat at the 98.9 percentile nationally last season — the kind of number that belongs to the sport's best offenses, full stop. Three wins in the SEC is real proof of life; this was a different kind of proof.
Savant card · 2025 season through postseasonVanderbilt's passing offense also ranks in the 97th percentile
Passing EPA checked in at the 96.7 percentile of FBS last season, pairing with an equally elite rushing number to make Vanderbilt one of the most efficient offenses in the country on a per-play basis. Anchor Down: both halves of the offense were pulling in the same direction.
Savant card · 2025 season through postseasonVanderbilt's overall EPA per play ranks at the very top of FBS
Vanderbilt's EPA per play sat at the 99.6 percentile of FBS last season — the rare number that ranked a program's offense among the very best in the country, full stop. The League called it a scheduling accident; the program calls it a standard, and on a per-play basis last fall, the standard was elite.
Savant card · 2025 season through postseasonProgram memory
What this program never forgets
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
2008
First bowl in 39 years
Vanderbilt ends a generation-long bowl drought with a Music City Bowl win
2024
The Alabama upset
Vanderbilt beats No. 1 Alabama 40-35 in Nashville, the program's signature modern win and the spark of the rise
2025
The 10-win season
A program-record 10-3 finish, a No. 14 final ranking, and Diego Pavia as Heisman runner-up
Moment of the Year · Vanderbilt · 2025
Moment of the Year · Vanderbilt · 2025Won 31-7 at South Carolina
Week 3 of 2025. Beat a top-11 opponent on the road.
Bowl / Postseason Ledger
Bowl / Postseason LedgerRecent postseason (2016-2025): 1-3
Most recent: 2025 — loss 27-34 (home). Last 5 postseason: 1-3.
2025202420182016
NFL Draft Pipeline
2025–2026
NFL Draft PipelineThin
2 picks last 5 cycles. Roster development still maturing.
2
picks · 0 R1
#54
Eli Stowers
Tight End · 2026 · Philadelphia · #2/156 final season
Succeeded by Cameran Dickson · 3★
#251
Julian Ashby
Long Snapper · 2025 · New England
#62 all-time · 9 first-round picksthe talent factory →
Unit lineage
Vanderbilt’s offense and defense, by coordinator
FBS-relative efficiency percentile per season (2014–2025), same population as the Coordinator Mirror board. Dashed vertical lines mark a coordinator change.
Offense2014–2025
2014 · Karl Dorrell2015–2018 · Andy Ludwig2019 · Gerry Gdowski2020 · Todd Fitch2021 · David Raih2022–2023 · Joey Lynch2024–2025 (ongoing) · Tim Beck
Defense2014–2025
2014 · Dave Kotulski2015–2016 · Derek Mason2018–2019 · Jason Tarver2020 · Ted Roof2021 · Jesse Minter2022–2023 · Nick Howell2024–2025 (ongoing) · co-Steve Gregory
Elite (≥70th pct)AveragePoor (≤30th pct)
Chronicle Visuals
Among the most continuous rosters into 2025 — 86% back, anchored by the qb room, only offense to settle.
The portal upgraded the EDGE room but opened a hole at WR.
1 player drafted in 2026; the reload runs through the portal and recruiting.
Vanderbilt signs higher-rated classes than its draft yield delivers.
r/cfb moments
6.9k
[Postgame Thread] Vanderbilt Defeats LSU 31-24
1.5k
[Postgame Thread] East Tennessee State Defeats Vanderbilt 23-3
813
[Postgame Thread] Vanderbilt Defeats Connecticut 30-28
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