Game log · Week-by-week
2026 season · 3 games
| Wk | Opp | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 73-6vs Bethune-Cookman | 7 | 110 | 15.7 | 1 | 64 | |
| Wk 2 | L 7-12@ Pittsburgh | 6 | 10 | 1.7 | 0 | 8 | |
| Wk 3 | W 44-30vs Georgia State | 14 | 177 | 12.6 | 2 | 63 | Season-high 177 yds |
| Total | 27 | 297 | 10.0 | 3 | 64 |
#26
Duke Watson
Junior running back for UCF. 2026: 3 games with a box-score line.
5′11″ · 185 lb · Forsyth, GA · Mary Persons
CFB Index 63 · #59 of 310 RBsHigh confidenceTransferred Louisville → UCF for 2026
CFB Index
A single number blending on-field production (an EPA-based value lane) with box-score output for this player's position.
0-100, scaled within each position's own cohort — not directly comparable across positions.
The numbers
297
rushing yards · 2026 · through week 3
3 games into 2026 so far -- Backed by 14 car · 177 yds · 2 TD -- top 1% rushing yards game.
The play that turned itSwung UCF from 36% to 70% to win.Georgia State at UCF · 44-30
His career numbers, season by seasonThe story
Junior running back for UCF. 2026: 3 games with a box-score line.
- Signed as a 4-star recruit to Louisville in 2024.
- Transferred from Louisville to UCF in 2026.
Buzz vs Tape
Rivals warmer than fans
The rival fanbase is unexpectedly warm on him relative to his own.
26.6own fans
70rival fans
Glad to see the Knights wake up in the second half and get this win. Georgia State is a good team with a good QB who just walloped the reigning conference champion in their conference the week before. UCF had one bad quarter, but came…
Also worth knowing:
In Their Words
161 windows · 2026 fan posts
duke×52.6barnett×216.2line×12.7good×6.6
Duke Watson
Does a little of everything without one standout trait. Across three seasons and two programs, two head coaches: Jeff Brohm and Scott Frost. The receipt: 177 rush yds, 2 rush TD against Georgia State — Week 3, 2026.
297 RUSH YDS · 3 RUSH TD · 27 CARRIES
Low coverage — composed from the verified record.
- season totals
- positional archetype classification
- head-coach lineage
- game log
His career
5 programs, one constant: he played.
202412 games
- Signed with Louisville4-star out of Mary Persons
20263 games
- Entered the portal
- Entered the portal
- Entered the portal
- Entered the portal
Career arc
HS
Recruit
★★★★
CFB
College
2 teams
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Coaching lineage · 2024–2026
2 coaches2024
UCF
Coaching transition mid-career: Gus Malzahn → Scott Frost. Worth noting in scheme + development context.
Where He Ended Up · Transfer
Transferred to UCF
2025Louisville
2026UCF
Career stats
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | UCF | 27 | 297 | 11.0 | 3 | -- |
| 2025 | Louisville | 49 | 158 | 3.2 | 1 | -- |
| 2024 | Louisville | 67 | 597 | 8.9 | 7 | -- |
| Career | 143 | 1,052 | 7.4 | 11 | -- |
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | UCF | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 | -- |
| 2025 | Louisville | 6 | 49 | 8.2 | 1 | -- |
| 2024 | Louisville | 5 | 60 | 12.0 | 1 | -- |
| Career | 15 | 115 | 7.7 | 2 | -- |
Game log
Game by game
Duke Watson's 2026 production
Point color shows the opponent's defensive strength that week (red = weaker defense, blue = stronger) — dashed line is this player's own season average.
Signature game
SIGNATURE GAME · Week 1 · 2026
W 73–6
110 rush yds (7 car) · 1 TD
Dominant 67-point win at home against Bethune-Cookman.
With T. Swint — 48 rush yds (4 car) · 1 TD · A. Barnett — 158 yds · 1 TD · 1 INT · QBR 46.9 · 9 rush yds (5 car) · 1 TD
Signature plays
Signature plays · top plays by |EPA|
The plays that mattered most
- Week 1 · Bethune-Cookman · 1&10 · Q1 · EPA +5.15(11:08) Shotgun #26 D.Watson rush middle for 64 yards gain to the BCU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:02, 1ST DOWN #15 W.Stone kick attempt good (H: #97 M.Denaburg, LS: #44 K.Hicks)
- Week 3 · Georgia State · 1&10 · Q3 · EPA +5.05(14:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 D.Watson rush left for 63 yards gain to the GSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:42, 1ST DOWN #15 W.Stone kick attempt good (H: #97 M.Denaburg, LS: #44 K.Hicks)
- Week 3 · Georgia State · 2&11 · Q1 · EPA +2.85(01:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 D.Watson rush middle for 26 yards gain to the GSU30, out of bounds at GSU30, 1ST DOWN
- Week 3 · Georgia State · 1&10 · Q1 · EPA +2.55(12:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 D.Watson rush right for 14 yards gain to the GSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:02, 1ST DOWN #15 W.Stone kick attempt good (H: #97 M.Denaburg, LS: #44 K.Hicks)
- Week 1 · Bethune-Cookman · 2&10 · Q2 · EPA +1.71(10:36) Shotgun #26 D.Watson rush middle for 11 yards gain to the BCU37 (#0 I.Washburn; #6 N.Lassiter), 1ST DOWN
- Week 3 · Georgia State · 1&10 · Q1 · EPA -1.38(02:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 K.Jenkins pass complete short right to #26 D.Watson caught at UCF40, for 1 yard loss to the UCF44 (#1 J.Rhodes-Nelson; #20 C.Owens)
- Week 3 · Georgia State · 1&10 · Q4 · EPA +1.21(13:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 D.Watson rush left for 15 yards gain to the GSU43 (#8 D.Lee; #99 M.Berte), 1ST DOWN
- Week 3 · Georgia State · 2&10 · Q2 · EPA +1.12(04:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 D.Watson rush right for 13 yards gain to the GSU24 (#34 J.Hood), 1ST DOWN
- Week 2 · Pittsburgh · 1&10 · Q3 · EPA -1.06(11:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 D.Watson rush middle for 2 yards loss to the UCF27 (#44 J.Scott)
- Week 2 · Pittsburgh · 2&10 · Q1 · EPA -0.77(12:43) Shotgun #26 D.Watson rush right for 1 yard gain to the UCF47 (#0 B.Lovelace)
2026 snapshot
Since week 2: +177 rushing yards, +2 rushing TD, +1 catch.
Season context · Team result + system
2024Louisville9-4HC: Jeff Brohm · Balanced
2025Louisville9-4HC: Jeff Brohm · Balanced
2026UCF2-1HC: Scott Frost · Run-leaning, slow tempo
Where this profile ranks vs the RB cohort
Box-score percentiles
High confidenceFading
Elite: yards / carry (100th percentile). Strength: long run (86th percentile). Concern: carries (0th percentile).
Box-score rates (7)
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Splits & context
Splits · Per-game
2026 season · 3 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home2g | 144 | 14.1 | 1.5 |
| Road1g | 10.0 | 1.7 | 0.0 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-73g | 99.0 | 10.0 | 1.0 |
Supporting cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Scott Frost
Pass share
41.2%
70 pass / 100 run
Plays / game
56.7
3 games
Team sack rate
3.8%
78 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Run-leaning, slow tempo.
Awards
Player standing · 2026
Backup
On the two-deep and pushing for snaps.
Roster2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
How he plays
Play style
Plays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension.
CFB Index positional classification
DNA match
Player DNA
Balanced Back
Plays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension.
RB
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Richard Reese’s 2024 season.
75%match
Matches Richard on
Yards / carry
Weight
Yards / reception
Differs from Richard on
Class year (lower)
Through 3 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Ty Jordan’s path through Utah.
91%match
All-Pac-12
Matches Ty on
Yards per carry
Recruiting rating
As a sophomore, his production profile tracks closest to Anthony Williams Jr.'s sophomore season at Akron (2021).
Matches Anthony on
Total rush EPA (college ability)
Weight
EPA / carry (adj)
Differs from Anthony on
Yards / reception (lower)
Player DNA
Players who play like Duke Watson
Heisman trajectory
Heisman Trajectory · 2026
Peak #180
Peaked at #180 this season.
The backfield · UCF
- #26Duke Watson158 rushing yards · 2025
- #35Agyeman Addae50 rushing yards · 2025
- #11Landen Chambers3 games · 2026
- #24Arthur Lewis IV1 game · 2026
- #42Chance Nixonno box-score line yet
2 more on the roster · UCF team page
Stats from CFBD · ESPN · fan discourse. Every figure computed from source tables — not invented. Methodology