CFB Zeitgeist Score
12
Below cohort in the position cohort. Carried by rec yards at the 28th percentile.
Duke Watson
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
158 RUSH YDS · 1 RUSH TD · 49 CARRIES
Where He Ended Up · Transfer
Transferred to UCF
2025Louisville
2026UCF
RB · LOUISVILLE · ACC
Duke Watson
- 2
- #26
- 6-0 | 180 lb
- Forsyth, GA
Heisman Heat
#116
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP RB AWARD
Doak Walker
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR06 · Starter
Starter. A locked-in starting role.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Development Trajectory · rushing yards
2024–2025-74%
Sharp dropoff (-74%) — career inflection point.
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★★
CFB
College
Louisville
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 4-star | 0.8983 | No. 380 recruit | HighSchool | Louisville |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Louisville -> UCF | 3-star | 0.8700 | Immediate |
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
No achievements unlocked yet this season.
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★★☆
to Louisville
Composite
0.8983
#380 national
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Duke Watson
Fan sentiment ·
Belief Meter
50
Mixed Sentiment
Top Take
“”
Trajectory
Per-cohort trajectory lands when historical bucket data is aggregated.
Cohort divergence map
- Own fans · n=2
- Rivals · n=2
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Duke Watson
Only 2 rival mention(s) — below the 4-mention floor for a defensible read.
Signature Story
Awaiting candidate metric
He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.
Signature Moment
No signature moment on the ledger yet.
Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the rushing totals stand
Through 7g
158Rush yards
49Carries
1Rush TDs
Per game
22.6Rush yards
7Carries
0Rush TDs
Projected (13g)
293.4Rush yards
91Carries
2Rush TDs
To hit 750-yard season (currently 158): needs 98.7/game over remaining 6.
To hit 1,000-yard season (currently 158): needs 140.3/game over remaining 6.
To hit 1,500-yard season (currently 158): needs 223.7/game over remaining 6.
To hit 10 rushing TDs (currently 1): needs 1.5/game over remaining 6.
To hit 15 rushing TDs (currently 1): needs 2.3/game over remaining 6.
To hit 20 rushing TDs (currently 1): needs 3.2/game over remaining 6.
What made this player interesting
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
Duke Watson's story is about how role and output meet each other. For Louisville, the card already shows enough current-season production to explain why he is on the serious-player board, and the next layer is determining whether the profile is just very good or actually distinctive.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
RB season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Backfield contributor against FBS RB peers.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Rushing
CAR
49 58th
YDS
158 50th
YPC
3.2 17th
TD
1 56th
Receiving
REC
6 47th
YDS
49 48th
YPR
8.2 64th
TD
1 89th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 7 games
| Wk | Opp | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 51-17vs Eastern Kentucky | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 2 | |
| Wk 2 | W 28-14vs James Madison | 7 | 13 | 1.9 | 0 | 8 | |
| Wk 5 | W 34-27@ Pittsburgh | 14 | 47 | 3.4 | 0 | 15 | Season-high 47 yds |
| Wk 6 | L 27-30vs Virginia | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 2 | |
| Wk 11 | L 26-29vs California | 8 | 19 | 2.4 | 1 | 9 | |
| Wk 12 | L 19-20vs Clemson | 11 | 39 | 3.5 | 0 | 10 | |
| Wk 13 | L 6-38@ SMU | 6 | 36 | 6.0 | 0 | 10 | |
| Total | 49 | 158 | 2.9 | 1 | 15 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2024Louisville9-4HC: Jeff Brohm · Balanced
2025Louisville9-4HC: Jeff Brohm · Balanced
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Louisville | 49 | 158 | 3.2 | 1 | -- |
| 2024 | Louisville | 67 | 597 | 8.9 | 7 | -- |
| Career | 2 loaded seasons | 116 | 755 | 6.5 | 8 | -- |
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Louisville | 6 | 49 | 8.2 | 1 | -- |
| 2024 | Louisville | 5 | 60 | 12.0 | 1 | -- |
| Career | 2 loaded seasons | 11 | 109 | 9.9 | 2 | -- |
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
Opponent-adjusted rushing value. It helps separate empty volume from carries that actually move the scoreboard.
How much of the team's offense flows through this back once rushing work and receiving work are combined.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing | Rushing yards | 158 | #368/735 | 50th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Rush TD | 1 | #323/739 | 56th pct | Scoringvs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Yards / carry | 3.2 | #611/735 | 17th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receptions | 6 | #291/552 | 47th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving yards | 49 | #286/548 | 48th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Value | Rushing WEPA | +0.09 | #226/362 | 38th pct | Opponent-adjusted rushing value | 46 weighted playsvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Role share | 11.9% | #258/738 | 65th pct | Share of team offensevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Carries | 49 | #314/739 | 58th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Rushing LONG | 15 | #465/733 | 37th pct | Metricvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving LONG | 30 | #126/540 | 77th pct | Metricvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Yards / catch | 8.2 | #197/548 | 64th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving TD | 1 | #60/552 | 89th pct | Scoringvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Rush share | 24.1% | #197/738 | 73rd pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS RB |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 15.7% | #216/738 | 71st pct | Early-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 14.0% | #240/738 | 68th pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS RB |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 11.9% | #270/738 | 64th pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 7.0% | #345/738 | 53rd pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS RB |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 4.0% | #491/738 | 34th pct | Money-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Pass share | 3.1% | #298/738 | 60th pct | Air-game usagevs FBS RB |
| Ball Security | Fumbles lost | 1 | #78/256 | 70th pct | Turnoversvs FBS RB |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 7 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home5g | 15.0 | 2.2 | 0.2 |
| Road2g | 41.5 | 4.7 | 0.0 |
Win vs Loss
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wins3g | 20.7 | 2.1 | 0.0 |
| Losses4g | 24.0 | 3.5 | 0.2 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-74g | 16.0 | 2.1 | 0.0 |
| Weeks 8+3g | 31.3 | 4.0 | 0.3 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the RB cohort
12Below cohort
Concern: yards / carry (2nd).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · RB · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
wepa_rushing0.09Low (p25–p50) (n=178)
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Duke WatsonLouisvilleTae MeadowsTroy· 53% simChavon WrightNorthern Illinois· 51% simJordan BrunsonMiami (OH)· 50% sim
Fumbles lost
Rec yards
Receptions
Rush TDs
Carries
Long run
Rush yards
Yards / carry
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Balanced Back
Plays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension.
RB
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Anthony Williams Jr.’s 2021 season.
Anthony Williams Jr.
74%match
#2
Richard Reese
68%
#3
Daetrich Harrington
All-Sun Belt
66%
#4
Ca'Lil Valentine
65%
#5
DJ Butler
64%
Matches Anthony on
Total rush EPA (college ability)
Weight
Height
Differs from Anthony on
Class year (higher)
Yards / reception (lower)
Through 2 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Will Henderson III’s path through UTSA.
Will Henderson III
80%match
#2
Xavier White
78%
#3
Jermar Jefferson
NFL Rd 7
77%
#4
Jamarion Wilcox
73%
#5
Ty Jordan
72%
Matches Will on
Yards per carry
Weight
Recruiting rating
Differs from Will on
Height (higher)
As a sophomore, his production profile tracks closest to Anthony Williams Jr.'s sophomore season at Akron (2021).
Anthony Williams Jr.
81%match
#2
Ezell Jolly
73%
#3
DJ Butler
70%
#4
Chance Black
67%
#5
Alvon Isaac
66%
Matches Anthony on
Total rush EPA (college ability)
Weight
EPA / carry (adj)
Differs from Anthony on
Yards / reception (lower)
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Jeff Brohm
Pass share
50.2%
414 pass / 410 run
Plays / game
63.4
13 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
7.0%
314 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Balanced.
Coaching Lineage · 2024–2025
1 coach2024
Jeff Brohm
Louisville
2025
Jeff Brohm
Louisville
Played his entire career under Jeff Brohm.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownForsyth, GA
Height6'0"
Weight180 lb
Class2
PositionRB
Jersey26
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamLouisville
ConferenceACC
Joined2025
Career arc2 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Louisville | RB2 | #116 | #139 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W16 snapshot | ACC |
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Louisville | ACC | RB | 2 | No. 26 | 6-0 | 180 lb | Forsyth, GA |
| 2024 | Louisville | ACC | RB | 2 | No. 26 | 6-0 | 180 lb | Forsyth, GA |