Houston 27-17 UCF (Oct 3, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: UCF · Houston

UCF3-217

No. 20 Houston4-127Final

Sat, Oct 3 · TDECU Stadium, Houston, Texas · Crowd 25,593

No. 20 Houston beat UCF 27-17.

We had Houston favored. It won.

Next: UCF lost to Oklahoma State 42-28, Sat Oct 10

Next: Houston beat Kansas State 35-16, Sat Oct 10

Top comment in the game thread

Two first downs… in a row?!?!

Q2 3:28 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Oct 3

How it swung

The turning point: Jenkins 13-yd TD pass to Derry, UCF goes ahead 7-0 (Q1, 11:17). Houston went from 78% to 63% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Houston an 87% chance, and the closing betting line (Houston was a 10.5-point favorite) put it at 80%.

Houston came back from 17 down, at one point just a 13% chance in the third quarter.

UCF led by 17, was as high as 87% in the third quarter, and still lost.

27 unanswered

Houston · Q4 10:15

FinalHouston 27-17 UCFHouston wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The two plays that swung it

1Q1 11:17Jenkins 13-yd TD pass to Derry, UCF goes ahead 7-0Houston 78% → 63% (−15)
2Q3 1:11Weigman 1-yd TD run, cuts it to 17-14Houston 36% → 51% (+15)

The two plays that swung it

1Q1 11:17Jenkins 13-yd TD pass to Derry, UCF goes ahead 7-0UCF 22% → 37% (+15)
2Q3 1:11Weigman 1-yd TD run, cuts it to 17-14UCF 64% → 49% (−15)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q2 9:03A player made a good juke move.That juke was sickr/CFB game thread
Q2 3:28UCF offense converts two consecutive first downs after Houston fumbleQuoted at the top of the page.🚨🚨UCF MADE A FIRST DOWN, THIS IS NOT A DRILL🚨🚨r/CFB game thread
Q3 2:38UCF fans predict collapse as Jenkins is injured on interceptionAnddd Jenkins is down wtfr/CFB game thread
Q4 1:08A player spiked the ball and taunted a defender.Spiking the ball. Beautifulr/CFB game thread

Houston’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (Houston -10.5), at 82% for Houston (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Houston or UCF flair (543 and 1,120); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Houston’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

Houston scored on 5 of its 12 drives; UCF on 3 of its 12.

Houston’s drives are teal, UCF’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From UCF’s side

UCF’s best moment: Jenkins 13-yd TD pass to Derry, UCF goes ahead 7-0 (Q1 11:17). It lifted UCF’s win chance by 15 points.

How UCF fans took it: “Yea, taunt that defender after getting your garbage time 1st down. You sure showed him” r/CFB game thread

“Everybody say it with me “I will not have hope yet””

A UCF fan

How fans reacted

Quiet

The third quarter is when fans got loud.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was quiet; the crowd was steady.

Two crowds, one game

The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.

Houston fans

basketball“I have never needed Kelvin Sampson and the basketball program more than I have right now.”

UCF fans

ball“It sucks that we don't have a QB who can throw the ball more than 10 yards for this hail mary attempt”

Both sets of fans kept coming back to: now, half, back, take.

Too close to call on 52% of plays. The winner fell to 10%.

What it cost

Houston’s chance to make the playoff rose from 12% to 14%.

Make the playoff

UCF · lost2% → ▼1%

Houston · won12% → ▲14%

Win the conference

UCF · lost2% → ▼1%

Houston · won9% → ▲11%

Before the game (October 2, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

Houston 27, UCF 17

UCF covered +10.5 by 0.5. The total, 44, stayed under 50.5.

Team totals	UCF	Houston
Total yards	332	393
Passing	25 of 38, 259 yds	18 of 33, 239 yds
Rushing	21 for 73 yds	44 for 154 yds
First downs	13	23
Third down	4 of 14	8 of 16
Fourth down	1 of 3	1 of 3
Turnovers	1	1
Penalties	9 for 73 yds	7 for 60 yds
Time of possession	26:38	33:22

UCF leaders

Passing Keyone Jenkins 23 of 35, 253 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Rushing Duke Watson 9 for 50 yds; Taevion Swint 3 for 19 yds
Receiving Joshua Derry 7 for 101 yds, 1 TD; Waden Charles 4 for 68 yds

Houston leaders

Passing Conner Weigman 18 of 33, 239 yds
Rushing Re'Shaun Sanford II 18 for 62 yds; Conner Weigman 13 for 50 yds, 3 TD
Receiving Patrick Overmyer 6 for 76 yds; Trent Walker 2 for 51 yds

No rain through the game

82° at kickoff · no rain recorded

The usual here around this date is 79°, with about 7 in 10 games between 73° and 86°.

October game-day temperatures at TDECU Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 11:17 left11:08 a.m.

UCF 7, Houston 0 · Houston 63% to win

no rain · 84°

Jenkins 13-yd TD pass to Derry, UCF goes ahead 7-0

Measured at Houston Dunn airport, 2.8 miles away. The paler thunder bar is thunder reported in the vicinity of an airport. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last 4 games

UCF · 3-1

Rated 103rd in our preseason ratings, 80th now, up 23 spots.

3-1 in its last 4, capped by a 8-point win over TCU as a 3.5-point underdog.

W 21-13 vs TCU #49 of 668

won by 8 as a 3.5-point underdog

W 44-30 vs Georgia State #128 of 668

won by 14 as a 17.5-point favorite

L 7-12 @ PittsburghTop 25 #48 of 668

lost by 5 as a 7.5-point underdog

W 73-6 vs Bethune-Cookman #184 of 668

won by 67 as a 43.5-point favorite

Last 4 games

Houston · 3-1

Rated 20th in our preseason ratings, 12th now.

3-1 in its last 4 — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

W 42-28 @ Georgia Southern #84 of 668

won by 14 as a 17.5-point favorite

L 26-28 @ Texas TechTop 25 #7 of 668

lost by 2 as a 7.5-point underdog

W 77-6 vs Southern #198 of 668

won by 71 as a 51.5-point favorite

W 33-20 vs Oregon State #67 of 668

won by 13 as a 21-point favorite

Week by week

Houston

Wk 1Wvs Oregon State33-20
Wk 2Wvs Southern77-6
Wk 3Lat Texas Tech26-28
Wk 4Wat Georgia Southern42-28

UCF

Wk 1Wvs Bethune-Cookman73-6
Wk 2Lat Pittsburgh7-12
Wk 3Wvs Georgia State44-30
Wk 4Wvs TCU21-13

Power rating by week

Houston is rated 9.1 points ahead as of week 4. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Houston’s explosive plays against UCF, 73 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Houston’s explosive plays against UCF’s defense
Houston offense, 9th percentile · UCF defense, 82nd
Houston’s success rate against UCF’s defense
Houston offense, 100th percentile · UCF defense, 55th
Houston’s passing EPA against UCF’s defense
Houston offense, 97th percentile · UCF defense, 56th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

UCFHouston

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

UCF leads the series 8-4

12 meetings since 2005 · Houston won the last meeting

2025Houston 30-27
2023UCF 27-13
2020UCF 44-21
2019UCF 44-29
2016Houston 31-24

Each line is Houston’s chance to win through that meeting. Houston is 2-0 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Houston fans are feeling it about like the typical fanbase this week (53rd among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.

Houston favored by 10.5 · Total 50.5

How games like this usually go

Houston by 10.5, and it went to form

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 385 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 2 points toward UCF.

The total fell 1 point.

The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds

Weather at kickoff

Hot and dry. Feels like 92° at kickoff.

UCF at Houston · Saturday, Oct. 3, 2026 · TDECU Stadium, Houston

92°feels like at kickoff
Dryno rain at kickoff
50weather score, Rough
2ndroughest of the day's 5 kickoff times

At kickoff, Oct. 3, 2026.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Later kickoff times scored higher that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 5 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was the second roughest of the day's five kickoff times. At TDECU Stadium that day, a 6:45 pm kickoff would have scored 62, against 50 at 11 am.

The roughest kickoff time is the lowest of the day's times. It can still be Mixed or Comfortable.

11 am: 50, Rough (this game)
2:30 pm: 56, Rough
3:15 pm: 46, Harsh
6 pm: 55, Rough
6:45 pm: 62, Rough

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

At kickoff, Oct. 3, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.

Home field

Houston has had no measurable home edge since 2018 — −0.7 points (±3.6), home against road — 0th percentile of FBS.

55% at home, 57% on the road against FBS opponents (24-20 home, 27-20 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -3.1 at home vs. away over 96 games — inside the ±5.9 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 857 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

Houston15th0-1
UCF1st1-0

Full Big 12 standings

No. 20 Houston beats UCF 27-17