Southern at Houston
Fan take
Houston fans
How they got here
Last two games
Southern · 1-1
Picked #201 in the preseason · now #230.
1-1 in its last two — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
W 34–15 vs Kentucky State #281 of 669
L 17–30 @ Alabama State #152 of 669
lost by 13 as a 19.5-point favorite
Last three games · 2025 season
Houston · 10-3
Picked #23 in the preseason · now #25 — about right.
2-1 in its last three, capped by a 7-point win over Baylor as a 2.5-point underdog.
W 38–35 vs LSUTop 25 #45 of 668
won by 3 as a 1.5-point favorite
W 31–24 @ Baylor #62 of 668
won by 7 as a 2.5-point underdog
L 14–17 vs TCUTop 25 #45 of 668
lost by 3 as a 1.5-point underdog
W 30–27 @ UCF #70 of 668
won by 3 as a 1-point underdog
L 35–45 vs West Virginia #103 of 668
lost by 10 as a 13-point favorite
W 24–16 @ Arizona StateTop 25 #35 of 668
won by 8 as a 7.5-point underdog
W 31–28 vs ArizonaTop 25 #65 of 668
won by 3 as a 2.5-point underdog
W 39–17 @ Oklahoma State #159 of 668
won by 22 as a 14.5-point favorite
L 11–35 vs Texas TechTop 25 #7 of 668
lost by 24 as a 11.5-point underdog
W 27–24 @ Oregon State #94 of 668
won by 3 as a 12.5-point favorite
W 36–20 vs Colorado #88 of 668
won by 16 as a 4-point favorite
W 35–9 @ Rice #88 of 668
won by 26 as a 13.5-point favorite
W 27–0 vs Stephen F. Austin #99 of 668
won by 27 as a 23.5-point favorite
What’s at stake
Southern
- Southern needs 5 more wins in the final 9 to reach bowl eligibility — 5% to get there with a win here, 0% with a loss.
- Southern is still shaking off a 71-point loss.
Houston
- Houston is ranked #22, right on the edge of the Top 25.
- Houston is coming off a 71-point win.
The series
Houston leads the series 3-0
3 meetings since 2008 · Houston has won the last 3
- 2026Houston 77–6
- 2013Houston 62–13
- 2008 · neutral siteHouston 55–3
Best players
Houston
- Amare Thomas (WR) · 162 receiving yards
- Conner Weigman (QB) · 425 passing yards — Heisman odds: 22nd (+6500)
- Makhi Hughes (RB) · 142 rushing yards — Heisman odds: 100th (+30000)
The line, and the room
The model and the market are in lockstep on Houston’s chances here.
Home −51.5 · O/U 61.5
Conditions
92°F · 7 mph wind · Rain Shower
Houston has had no measurable home edge since 2018 — −0.6 points (±3.8), home against road — 0th percentile of FBS.
52% at home, 57% on the road against FBS opponents (22–20 home, 25–19 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -2.1 at home vs. away over 72 games — inside the ±7.0 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 255 miles to get here.
Southern 6 – Houston 77
Called it — picked Houston to win.
Recent games
Houston
- Wk 1Wvs Oregon State33-20
Southern
- Wk 1Lat Alabama State17-30
- Wk 1Wvs Kentucky State34-15
Trajectory
Houston won 77-6, as picked pregame.