The rest of the season
One real test left: Baylor 53%
Win out 34% · expect 3.1 of 4 more wins
Houston's chance to win each game left, from our model: Cincinnati 80%, Colorado 90%, West Virginia 90%, Baylor 53%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
Playoff chance went from 5% to 8%, peaking at 19% before a game
Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.
StandingTied for 4th in the Big 12 · 3-2 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing Conner Weigman 2,052 · Rushing Makhi Hughes 517 · Receiving Amare Thomas 620 All player stats
Updated Thu Nov 5 · through week 8
Follow Houston:athletics siteXInstagram
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #20 | #69 | −21✗ −8 | Oregon State | W 33-20 145 | 1-0 | 0-0 | Pass Weigman 305 · Rush Hughes 98 · Rec Thomas 133 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #22 | #217 | −51.5✓ +19.5 | Southern | W 77-6 106 | 2-0 | 0-0 | Pass Weigman 120 · Rush Smith 69 · Rec Young 54 |
| 3 | Sep 18 | #23 | #8 | +7.5✓ +5.5 | @Texas Tech | L 26-28 135 Loud | 2-1 | 0-1 | Pass Weigman 282 · Rush Hughes 71 · Rec Thomas 75 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #12 | #84 | −17.5✗ −3.5 | @Georgia Southern | W 42-28 128 | 3-1 | 0-1 | Pass Weigman 239 · Rush Sanford II 120 · Rec Walker 83 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #12 | #80 | −10.5✗ −0.5 | UCF | W 27-17 136 | 4-1 | 1-1 | Pass Weigman 239 · Rush Sanford II 62 · Rec Overmyer 76 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | #14 | #33 | +2.5✓ +21.5 | @Kansas State | W 35-16 132 | 5-1 | 2-1 | Pass Weigman 242 · Rush Sanford II 90 · Rec Overmyer 83 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #11 | #117 | −4✗ −1 | Oklahoma StateTop 25 win | W 35-32 132 | 6-1 | 3-1 | Pass Weigman 343 · Rush Hughes 77 · Rec Thomas 126 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #13 | #21 | +6.5✗ −1.5 | @Utah | L 13-21 127 | 6-2 | 3-2 | Pass Weigman 282 · Rush Hughes 52 · Rec Thomas 133 |
| 9 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | #20 | #73 | −10.5 | Cincinnati | 3:30 pm ET · FOX80% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 13 | #21 | #105 | @Colorado | 10:15 pm ET · ESPN90% to win | ||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @West Virginia | time TBA90% to win | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | Baylor | time TBA | ||||||
Win chances are our model for Houston, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for Houston: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24 | @Utah | L 13-21 | 368 | 1 | 29:55 | -0.021 | 40.9% | 1.25 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 17 | Oklahoma State | W 35-32 | 505 | 1 | 35:12 | +0.344 | 54.1% | 1.20 | One-score win |
| Oct 10 | @Kansas State | W 35-16 | 475 | 0 | 34:49 | +0.438 | 48.0% | 1.33 | Most explosive |
| Oct 3 | UCF | W 27-17 | 393 | 1 | 33:22 | +0.008 | 50.0% | 0.74 | |
| Sep 26 | @Georgia Southern | W 42-28 | 441 | 0 | 28:39 | +0.476 | 59.4% | 1.09 | |
| Sep 18 | @Texas Tech | L 26-28 | 458 | 1 | 33:42 | +0.283 | 50.6% | 1.02 | One-score loss |
| Sep 12 | Southern | W 77-6 | 591 | 0 | 38:18 | +0.769 | 73.8% | 1.17 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 5 | Oregon State | W 33-20 | 533 | 2 | 30:50 | +0.312 | 50.0% | 1.25 | |
| Season average (8 games) | 470 | 0.8 | +0.326 | 53.4% | 1.13 | ||||
Houston's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Median odds across sportsbooks · Oct 19. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
What fans said
Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
8-2 over the last 10, and lost the last one.
If you go back to Oregon State game, the Houston game in the red zone, that was our most effective games
8% now · ▼ 6 points in the last week
Our simulation, 20,000 seasons a night, counted from the first full week of games.
Root for West Virginia over Texas Tech
Sat 9:30 pm · Moves Houston’s playoff chance by 4 points
Our simulation, 20,000 seasons with this one game forced each way. Only games that move the chance by two points or more are listed.
The open questionwhere does it go from here?
24-team CFP bracket seeded.
Statusdeveloping
Range of outcomes · Houston · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
7 wins 2%; 8 wins 17%; 9 wins 47%; 10 wins 34%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.
The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.
This event was in 368 of 4371 board posts (8%) over the last 60 days, a modest share of the conversation. Fan text is shown verbatim and credited to the community it came from; posters stay anonymous.
Board health this week (57 posts): 26% positive · 48% neutral · 26% negative. This is the team's mood for the whole week, across all topics. Board posters are a vocal, self-selected slice of the fanbase.
More in this tab
This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 6-2
Measured from 8 games · ranks are among Big 12 teams the same season
Houston is the program that once put up 100 points and produced Andre Ware's Heisman, then spent thirty years on the wrong side of the velvet rope — and is finally answering the bell in the Big 12 with a ten-win season.
Cougar fans watched Texas and Texas A&M get the invitations and the TV money while a program in the nation's fourth-largest city was told to wait its turn; they carry the snub of being the third…
Houston · Game-day weather
This Saturday: Warm. No coat needed.
Cincinnati at Houston · Saturday, Nov. 7 · 3:30 pm ET · FOX · TDECU Stadium.
Forecast, read Thu Nov 5, 5:20 am ET. It can change until kickoff.
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read it.
At kickoff, regular-season Saturdays, 2018 to 2025: 113 at noon, 113 at 3:30 pm, 112 at 7:30 pm. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50. Gusts count toward the score (up to 15 points). Average rain chance: the hourly chances of rain over the first 3 hours and 20 minutes, averaged.
Houston is the Big 12 newcomer whose Case Keenum + Tom Herman + Dana Holgorsen eras and 2024 Big 12 entry define what historic-Texas-football looks like outside Austin.
The program ledger
since 2025Roster and recruiting
Top 3 commits
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
Fans and ratings
Fan confidence in a typical range for this program right now
68th percentile among FBS programs
70 of 70 AP voters have them ranked, AP ballot, week 9 (2026): from #13, Kirk Kenney (San Diego Union-Tribune), to #23, Bob Asmussen (Champaign News-Gazette).
Individual AP Top 25 ballots, AP ballot, week 9, 2026, 70 voters tracked.
Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data
More
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · Houston · 2026