Big 12 · Willie Fritz, year 3 (16-12) · TDECU Stadium · 40,000 · 28,839 avg in 2026
LastL 26–28 at Texas Tech · Fri Sep 18 · Conner Weigman 282 pass yds, 3 TD, 56 rush yds
Nextat Georgia Southern · Sat Sep 26 · 4 pm ET · Allen E. Paulson Stadium · Houston by 18.5 · first meeting on record · Game preview
Updated Tue Sep 22 · through week 3
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #20 | #69 | -21✗ | Oregon State | W 33–20 145 | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #22 | #221 | -51.5✓ | Southern | W 77–6 106 | 2-0 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #23 | #8 | +7.5✓ | @Texas Tech | L 26–28 135 | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #12 | #84 | -18.5 | @Georgia Southern | |||
| 5 | Oct 3 | #12 | #93 | UCF | ||||
| 6 | Oct 10 | @Kansas State | ||||||
| 7 | Oct 17 | Oklahoma State | ||||||
| 8 | Oct 24 | @Utah | ||||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | Cincinnati | ||||||
| 11 | Nov 14 | @Colorado | ||||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @West Virginia | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | Baylor |
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19 | @Texas Tech | L 26–28 | 458 | 1 | 33:42 | +0.283 | 50.6% | 101.6% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 12 | Southern | W 77–6 | 591 | 0 | 38:18 | +0.769 | 73.8% | 116.8% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 5 | Oregon State | W 33–20 | 533 | 2 | 30:50 | +0.312 | 50.0% | 125.4% | Most explosive |
| Season average (3 games) | 527 | 1.0 | +0.455 | 58.2% | 114.6% | ||||
Houston is the program that once put up 100 points and produced Andre Ware's Heisman, then spent thirty years on the wrong side of the velvet rope — and is finally answering the bell in the Big 12 with a ten-win season.
Cougar fans watched Texas and Texas A&M get the invitations and the TV money while a program in the nation's fourth-largest city was told to wait its turn; they carry the snub of being the third…
The season in chapters
What fans said
Real posts from the day of the game, chosen by community score · usernames not shown
What it is like to watch them2025 · 10-3 · last season
✓ measured from 13 games · ranks are among Big 12 teams the same season
Recent form · last 10 games · incl. 2025
Warming. 7-3 over the last 10, and lost the last one.
We’re gonna have to play a really clean game you know, can’t make simple mistakes
Next Sep 26
vs Georgia Southern · away
✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style
Market outlook
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-09-22
the open questioncan a new staff change the trajectory?
Fritz begins his Houston tenure with 105% production returning and Holgorsen’s 29-27 legacy looming—this isn’t a rebuild; it’s an identity test.
our readbackground
Houston leaped 61 spots in SP+ — the gap between the ranking and its 10-3 record is the story Willie Fritz has to answer in the American Athletic this year.
our readbackground
Amare Thomas is a legitimate money-down target -- his 3rd-down conversion rate ranks among the position's best, and his per-target value holds up in that spot too.
our readdeveloping
DJ Butler sees a real spike in usage once the game is out of reach, and his efficiency in competitive snaps sits below the position baseline -- the numbers lean on the opponent giving up.
our readdeveloping
Amare Thomas: a depth dna signal screened this season.
our readbackground
Tanner Koziol is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
our readbackground
Outcome band · Houston · 2026
Floor, base and ceiling come from the season-path projection, which plays out conference title games and the CFP — so a ceiling can run past 12 games.
Willie Fritz took over as Houston's head coach, replacing Dana Holgorsen. It is replaces 6-year head coach Dana Holgorsen (31-28). It's not the hire that's the story anymore — it's everything it set in motion. The room is genuinely divided — believers and skeptics both have receipts.
The off-field storyline driving the noise right now. Not analysis — the soap opera, and that's the point.
The 'this hire changes everything' takes -- new-era believers making the case early.
The 'show me the body of work' counter -- resume gaps, scheme fits, and 'not that guy' reads.
This event was in 24 of 1952 board posts (1%) over the last 60 days — engaged but not consumed. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.
The second-order trail: commits, decommits, portal and staff knock-on from the hire.
Houston enters 2026 rated No. 40 in 2025 SP+ (+7.4), up 61 spots from 2024. It is top-quintile returning production in FBS — 1% of production comes back. One of the bigger model jumps in the country — the tape moved faster than the consensus noticed. The preview consensus leans in — but preseason ratings reward the recent past, not the season ahead.
The off-field storyline driving the noise right now. Not analysis — the soap opera, and that's the point.
The 'the projection is underselling us' read -- fans betting the season beats the preview number.
The 'the model has seen the tape' counter -- efficiency ratings reward what a program has actually done, not hope.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
This event was in 379 of 1952 board posts (19%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
More in this tab
Houston is the Big 12 newcomer whose Case Keenum + Tom Herman + Dana Holgorsen eras and 2024 Big 12 entry define what historic-Texas-football looks like outside Austin.
The program ledger
since 2025Houston DL charged with assault
Fritz's rebuild was finally pulling momentum — a DL charge right now cuts into a rotation already thin behind one draft departure and a room still chasing EDGE depth.
LSU court ruling tomorrow
Tomorrow's LSU ruling lands on a program already carrying EDGE pressure and a #38 class trying to prove it can hold ground in the Big 12 — a bad outcome doesn't just sting legally, it clouds the whole offseason build Fritz has been selling.
Win total: 7.5 → 8.5 (▲1)
The 7.5 to 8.5 move confirmed what was already public — the market repriced after the news landed.
2 Oregon State players eligibility pending
EDGE room lost a starter to the draft and Houston is pulling two Oregon State bodies into the building — eligibility pending is doing a lot of work here, but Fritz doesn't wait on depth problems.
Stephon Johnson granted extra year of eligibility
Fritz already brought in the portal names — now the house keeps Stephon Johnson too, which means the Big 12 receiver room just got deeper without spending another scholarship.
UT monitoring ex-lineman Hutson's eligibility lawsuit
Cole Hutson in a courtroom, Sark watching the docket — if that eligibility ruling breaks right, Houston's EDGE-starved depth chart loses a prospect it was quietly hoping Austin wouldn't reclaim.
Top 3 commits
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
TX leads the 2026 class with 17 commits. National footprint reaching 2 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
77 signees across 10 states, 2023-2026. TX leads the pull.
Miles from home · 2026 roster
The median Houston player grew up 173 miles from campus.
Half this roster came from closer than that; half came from farther.
Straight-line distance from each player's listed hometown to TDECU Stadium. Hometowns are placed at city-centroid precision, not street address — fine at this scale, but a player's true door-to-door number can differ by a few miles. 117 of 119 listed players have a geocoded hometown. Source: CFBD roster hometowns.
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
Fan confidence higher than any point since 2025
85th percentile among FBS programs
57 of 68 AP voters have them ranked, AP ballot, week 3 (2026) — from #13, Dylan Sinn (The Journal Gazette), to #25, Zach Klein (WSB). 11 voters left them off the ballot entirely.
Individual AP Top 25 ballots, AP ballot, week 3, 2026 — 68 voters tracked.
67% recovery rate on their own fumbles — well above the ~52% league baseline.
4 of 6 own fumbles recovered themselves, 2026 only.
14% of tipped/broken-up passes have turned into picks — about the ~19% league average.
3 interceptions of 21 disrupted passes (18 deflected, 3 intercepted), 2026 only.
22 penalties committed, 16 drawn on opponents — ceding 49 yards of field position.
170 penalty yards committed vs. 121 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
Outcome band · Houston · 2026
Recruiting Footprint · 2026