3identity shift
Houston's fanbase identity is shifting
Willie Fritz begins his first season at Houston with a 10-3 record and a fanbase shifting toward confidence, though the program's identity as a Big 12 newcomer remains unproven.
Houston10-3CFP #21Latest
The Houston faithful are all the way in.
belief cooled ↓ 2.0vs prior week
Fanbase belief
Bullish
69/100 · 103 mentions · top 2% of FBS
~ our readGrounding
backed by facts
38% cite a stat · 7% typical ✓ counted
~ our readVolatility
Chaotic
σ 30 pts
Credible bullish
~ our readThe model
#51
CFB Zeitgeist · +3.8
✓ measured3Hope-Doping·Offseason
Houston is the program that once put up 100 points and produced Andre Ware's Heisman, then spent thirty years on the wrong side of the velvet rope — and is finally answering the bell in the Big 12 with a ten-win season.
AP Top 25#25 AP
Cougar fans watched Texas and Texas A&M get the invitations and the TV money while a program in the nation's fourth-largest city was told to wait its turn; they carry the snub of being the third team…
offseason · quiet
Roster Reload - Houston
2026 snapshot - 2026-08-06Returning Production105%High continuity
Talent Composite#66 nationally247 composite 656.7
Portal Additions18Primary repair: DL
Portal Losses16Primary pressure: EDGE
Draft Loss1NFL Draft departures (1) — 1 with a next man up identified below
Recruiting Reload#38Development class
IOLin 2 - Anthony Boswellout 3 - Demetrius HunterDowngrade
current room: 311 lbs avg (2025 roster)
EDGEin 0out 4 - Reshad SterlingStarter Risk
DLin 3 - Ashton Porterout 1 - Joshua DonaldNeed Filled
current room: 280 lbs avg (2025 roster)
WRin 3 - Trent Walkerout 1 - Devan WilliamsNeed Filled
current room: 191 lbs avg (2025 roster)
LBin 2 - Jaden Yatesout 2 - Corey Platt Jr.Even
current room: 226 lbs avg (2025 roster)
QBin 1 - Luke Carneyout 2 - Austin CarlisleDowngrade
current room: 209 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Next man up
Belief EKG
WinLoss · hover for scorePrior seasonsWire eventStory arc
Approaching
30 days
until kickoff · vs Oregon State · Sat Sep 5 · 16:00 UTC
The experience
Houston is the Big 12 newcomer whose Case Keenum + Tom Herman + Dana Holgorsen eras and 2024 Big 12 entry define what historic-Texas-football looks like outside Austin.
Offense: PoorDefense: StrongDefensive shape: Bend-don't-break
Houston's 2026 Season Projected to Reach 12-1 with High Confidence
With a balanced portal churn and high continuity, Houston is poised for a strong season. The team's development class and returning talent provide a solid foundation for success.
- Roster reloadHouston has a transfer_in_total of 18 and a transfer_out_total of 16, indicating a balanced portal churn.
Data as of 2026-08-01
·
Validated against program evidence
Shasta the Cougar is patient.
Houston · the story right now
9 storylines developing
What Houston's coordinator hires is really about
the open questiondo the new coordinators fit the roster?
coordinatorsthis cycle~readnew
Willie Fritz begins his first season at Houston, inheriting a 10-3 winning record and a program defined by its historic Texas football identity outside Austin.
what happenedHouston: coordinator change reshaping a unit. ✓ fact
narrative tension · our read
market_swing2026-07-18~readnew
Willie Fritz, who previously coached at Tulane, begins his first season with a program that rose from 7.5 to 8.5 wins in the market, signaling cautious optimism for a middle-tier Big 12 team.
what happenedHouston win total rose from 7.5 to 8.5 (+1 wins) between Jul 17 and Jul 18, 2026 (tier B). ✓ fact
the contextwin total up 1.0 from 7.5 to 8.5
narrative tension · our read
money downthis cycle✓ factnew
Amare Thomas is a legitimate money-down target -- his 3rd-down conversion rate ranks among the position's best, and his per-target value holds up in that spot too.
narrative tension · our read
garbage timethis cycle✓ factnew
DJ Butler sees a real spike in usage once the game is out of reach, and his efficiency in competitive snaps sits below the position baseline -- the numbers lean on the opponent giving up.
narrative tension · our read
deep threatthis cycle~attributednew
Amare Thomas: a depth dna signal screened this season.
narrative tension · our read
deep threatthis cycle~attributednew
Tanner Koziol is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
narrative tension · our read
identitythis cycle~readnew
Willie Fritz begins his first season at Houston with a 10-3 record and a fanbase shifting toward confidence, though the program's identity as a Big 12 newcomer remains unproven.
what happenedHouston: the fanbase's identity shifting. ✓ fact
narrative tension · our read
program_outlookthis cycle~readnew
Houston leaped 61 spots in SP+ — the gap between the ranking and its 10-3 record is the story Willie Fritz has to answer in the American Athletic this year.
what happenedHouston enters 2026 rated No. 40 in 2025 SP+ (+7.4), up 61 spots from 2024. ✓ fact
the contexttop-quintile returning production in FBS — 1% of production comes back
narrative tension · our read
coachingthis cycle~readnew
Fritz begins his Houston tenure with 105% production returning and Holgorsen’s 29-27 legacy looming—this isn’t a rebuild; it’s an identity test.
what happenedWillie Fritz took over as Houston's head coach, replacing Dana Holgorsen. ✓ fact
the contextreplaces 5-year head coach Dana Holgorsen (29-27)
narrative tension · our read
How past storylines here turned out
AnsweredHouston's head-coaching hire held for another season.
Died downHouston's defensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.
ReplacedHouston's offensive coordinator spot turned over again the following season. See who's next →
The Offseason Ledger · Houston
3 verified updates · portal · recruiting · staff · news- Recruiting
Five-star QB Keisean Henderson commits 2026
Four QBs out, Austin Carlisle gone, two portal bodies added to plug the gap — Fritz's first five-star answers a position room that was bleeding faster than it was healing.
- News
UT monitoring ex-lineman Hutson's eligibility lawsuit
Cole Hutson in a courtroom, Sark watching the docket — if that eligibility ruling breaks right, Houston's EDGE-starved depth chart loses a prospect it was quietly hoping Austin wouldn't reclaim.
- News
Win total: 7.5 → 8.5 (▲1)
Books moved up from 7.5 to 8.5 before any public announcement — a market signal ahead of the news cycle.
Transfer portal snapshot
+2.7 net portal points
(raw ledger: +10.9 — unweighted, no position adjustment)EDGE-11.1
starter risk
DL+7.7
need not filled
WR+7.3
need not filled
S+3.7
low confidence
QB-3.7
OT+3.5
IOL-3.1
K+3.0
low confidence
TE+2.5
LS+1.0
low confidence
RB+0.2
LB-0.1
Top 3 commits
2026 class
★★★★★
Keisean Henderson
#1 national
Blue-chip pedigree, profiling early as a prototypical quarterback — 12 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Pocket Passer archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
★★★★☆
John Hebert
#202 national
Profiles like a typical incoming running back — 13 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Balanced Back archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
★★★★☆
Paris Melvin Jr.
#244 national
↑
Fan confidence higher than any point since 2025
98th percentile among FBS programs
Fan vs. market↑
98th
Fan percentile
(FBS mood rank)
(FBS mood rank)
8.5
Vegas O/U wins
(82nd among FBS)
(82nd among FBS)
Fans 16pp more bullish than market implies
Win total consensus · 3 books
Market outlook
Season expectations
Win total3 booksO/U 8.5▲1 since Jul 2026
CFP championship#33 in field+20000
Big 12 title#5 in market+1200
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-08-06
Houston · Next-Season Outcome Band
Houston · Next-Season Outcome BandFloor / Base / Ceiling
Floor 7-6
Base 10-3
Ceiling 12-1
floor7-6Bowl game.
base10-3Bowl game.
ceiling12-1Bowl game.
Final-season-aware projection: floor / base / ceiling include conference title and CFP games where the model supports them, so a ceiling can exceed a 12-game regular season.
How the room reacted
Following now · Houston · Developing Confidence
Houston: coordinator change reshaping a unit.
Houston: coordinator change reshaping a unit.
bullish — but with real dissent
where the takes land · dot = how loud
DOUBTBELIEF
Skeptics2 doubt takes
Believers4 bull takes
💬 fans: 38% volume · positive overall
The saga so far~2 months old
2 weeks agoUT monitoring ex-lineman Hutson's eligibility lawsuit — Reported
2 weeks agoWin total: 7.5 → 8.5 (▲1)
Jun 20Five-star QB Keisean Henderson commits 2026 — CFBD recruiting profile (commit-date est.)
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Willie Fritz begins his first season at Houston, inheriting a 10-3 winning record and a program defined by its historic Texas football identity outside Austin.
Source of record: Houston: coordinator change reshaping a unit.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
📣Believers4 bullish items -- the case it's working.›
The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.
“Missouri State football commit charged in Houston attempted armored truck robbery”
Click2Houston · 2026-08-05 · read ↗
“Houston's Recruiting Momentum Is Moving the Cougars Up Among Texas Schools”
Yahoo Sports · 2026-08-05 · read ↗
“Houston's Recruiting Momentum Is Starting to Change the Conversation Statewide”
Sports Illustrated · 2026-08-05 · read ↗
🧐Skeptics“After CFP breakthrough, five key questions facing Texas A&M as c” — the real counter.›
The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.
“After CFP breakthrough, five key questions facing Texas A&M as camp begins”
Houston Chronicle · 2026-08-05 · read ↗
“DOUBTED? Coaches Poll DISSES Houston Cougars, Focuses on OLD STORY, not Weigman & Fritz”
9News · 2026-08-05 · read ↗
💬The boards38% of recent board volume — the fanbase is locked in. Board mood this week: positive overall · joy dominant (77%).›
This event was in 97 of 252 board posts (38%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
"Jackie Battle scored 31 rushing TDs during his career as a Houston Cougar! Jackie Battle (2003-06) • 41 Games • 2,120 Rushing Yards • 31 Rushing TDs • 2006 Third-Team All-C-USA Pos"
r/HoustonCougars ~ fan take
"Patrick Edwards’ 32-yard TD catch in 2011’s comeback win vs LA Tech! The Coogs rallied back from being down 34-7 to win 35-34!"
r/HoustonCougars ~ fan take
Board health this week (106 posts): 21% positive · 75% neutral · 4% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.
Following now · Houston · Market Confidence
The market bumped Houston up a win. Win totals move for reasons; the books don't give interviews.
Houston win total rose from 7.5 to 8.5 (+1 wins) between Jul 17 and Jul 18, 2026 (tier B). It is win total up 1.0 from 7.5 to 8.5. The market moved; the fan base is split on what it means. Oddsmakers react to information, not sentiment — but that doesn't mean they're right. The room is divided — bulls and bears both have game-specific cases.
bullish — but with real dissent
where the takes land · dot = how loud
DOUBTBELIEF
Skeptics2 doubt takes
Believers4 bull takes
💬 fans: 38% volume · positive overall
The saga so far~2 months old
2 weeks agoUT monitoring ex-lineman Hutson's eligibility lawsuit — Reported
2 weeks agoWin total: 7.5 → 8.5 (▲1)
Jun 20Five-star QB Keisean Henderson commits 2026 — CFBD recruiting profile (commit-date est.)
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Willie Fritz, who previously coached at Tulane, begins his first season with a program that rose from 7.5 to 8.5 wins in the market, signaling cautious optimism for a middle-tier Big 12 team.
Next · what to watch
Win total moves are the sharpest signal the market sends in the offseason. They don't reflect fan enthusiasm — they reflect information: roster losses, schedule difficulty, injury reports, and coaching staff changes that haven't hit the beat press yet. One-win adjustments are deliberate, not rounding. Watch whether the line moves again — markets don't stop at one adjustment when the signal changes. The boards are already there — one thread raises exactly this.
Source of record: Houston win total rose from 7.5 to 8.5 (+1 wins) between Jul 17 and Jul 18, 2026 (tier B) — win total up 1.0 from 7.5 to 8.5.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
📣Believers4 bullish/market items -- the case it's working.›
The 'market knows something fans don't' read -- when odds move, it's on information.
“Missouri State football commit charged in Houston attempted armored truck robbery”
Click2Houston · 2026-08-05 · read ↗
“Houston's Recruiting Momentum Is Moving the Cougars Up Among Texas Schools”
Yahoo Sports · 2026-08-05 · read ↗
“Houston's Recruiting Momentum Is Starting to Change the Conversation Statewide”
Sports Illustrated · 2026-08-05 · read ↗
🧐Skeptics“After CFP breakthrough, five key questions facing Texas A&M as c” — the real counter.›
The 'markets overcorrect' counter -- lines move on noise too; the receipts may not hold.
“After CFP breakthrough, five key questions facing Texas A&M as camp begins”
Houston Chronicle · 2026-08-05 · read ↗
“DOUBTED? Coaches Poll DISSES Houston Cougars, Focuses on OLD STORY, not Weigman & Fritz”
9News · 2026-08-05 · read ↗
💬The boards38% of recent board volume — the fanbase is locked in. Board mood this week: positive overall · joy dominant (77%).›
This event was in 97 of 252 board posts (38%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
"Jackie Battle scored 31 rushing TDs during his career as a Houston Cougar! Jackie Battle (2003-06) • 41 Games • 2,120 Rushing Yards • 31 Rushing TDs • 2006 Third-Team All-C-USA Pos"
r/HoustonCougars ~ fan take
"Patrick Edwards’ 32-yard TD catch in 2011’s comeback win vs LA Tech! The Coogs rallied back from being down 34-7 to win 35-34!"
r/HoustonCougars ~ fan take
Board health this week (106 posts): 21% positive · 75% neutral · 4% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.
Recent Form · last 10 games
Mixed
Three of five. Trending up, not yet hot.
Streak W2Last 5 · 3-2Last 10 · 7-3
The forecast
Opens Sep 5
vs Oregon State · at home
Season line8.5 winsover +120
PoorStrongBend-don't-break
✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style
Rival pulse
Rice
Hopeful+14
Bayou Bucket
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
19
TX · 17LA · 2
TX leads the 2026 class with 17 commits. National footprint reaching 2 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
77 signees across 10 states, 2023-2026. TX leads the pull.
r/cfb this year
[Postgame Thread] Houston Defeats LSU 38-35
[Postgame Thread] Houston Defeats UCF 30-27
[Postgame Thread] TCU Defeats Houston 17-14
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
Voter spread
53 of 66 AP voters have them ranked, final AP ballot (2025) — from #16, Andy Yamashita (The Seattle Times), to #25, Scott Hamilton (The Post and Courier). 13 voters left them off the ballot entirely.
Individual AP Top 25 ballots, final AP ballot, 2025 — 66 voters tracked.
National spotlight
11 games with TV coverage: 1 national broadcast, 5 ESPN, 5 cable
Kickoff windows: 4 noon, 1 afternoon, 6 primetime
Fumble luck
67% recovery rate on their own fumbles — well above the ~51% league baseline.
8 of 12 own fumbles recovered themselves; 5 of 12 forced fumbles recovered, 2025 only.
Takeaway conversion
20% of tipped/broken-up passes have turned into picks — about the ~19% league average.
12 interceptions of 59 disrupted passes (47 deflected, 12 intercepted), 2025 only.
Penalty battle
60 penalties committed, 98 drawn on opponents — netting a 346-yard field-position edge.
521 penalty yards committed vs. 867 drawn on opponents, 2025 season total.
The Pulse on Houston
69
Δ -2.0 vs last wk
103
mentions this week · conversation velocity
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Camp
Fall camp open — install + scrimmage cycle
ongoing
Kickoff
Season opener in 16 days
kickoff
"Eat 'em up"
— Houston fanbase · recurring line
Fanbase Signals
Cohort Divergence2 pctSpread between sub-fanbase cohorts in the Pulse window.
The Fever Year
Position = mood · width = volume · color = the kind of feeling
Inside the fanbase — all 6 corners
Cr/CFB
GGoogle News
LLocked On
UUnderdog Dynasty
CCampus paper
CCoogFans
BBluesky
YYouTube
One voice
How Houston fans actually talk real · top-upvoted
Rr/CFBthe room
I assumed he meant what you're saying (cared about her but couldn't deal with it which isn't unfathomable) but just worded it terribly lol
▲ 75 ▼open ↗
The crowd’s loudest take by upvotes — read for mood, not as a side. The cohort read is the measured part.
The room, end to end
skeptical
buying in
Casuals+0.26
Millennials+0.23
Cohort sentiment is a source-weighted model read — never a quote pinned to a person.
What this fanbase keeps coming back to our read · topic model
Topics are model-labeled from Reddit — a rough signal of what this fanbase is circling right now.
225 mentions · 8 sources · week 2026-01. Counts, sources and the divergence rank are measured (fact). Cohort labels and sentiment are a source-weighted model read (our read) — never a quote attributed to a person.
Belief checkevidence-driven
~ our readHouston fans are buzzing about the program, and they're pointing to real stats and results to back it up — more than most fanbases right now.
backed by facts
the mood
✓ counted We read 106 posts from Houston fans this week.
Season storylines
Week 10
“That doesn’t sound right? Their one loss isn’t to a bad SEC team. Where’d the quality loss?”— r/CFB
Week 3
Week 9
““This is why fans don’t show up” Just shut the fuck up. It’s 74 degrees on a Saturday coming off of a top 25 road win. To suggest the fans deserve better is laughable. This loss does not excuse the embarrassing attendance.”— r/CFB
Week 7
“The frat who sits in front of me is rooting for clouds. It's one of those games and that's why everyone smart is on the concourse.”— r/CFB
Week 1
“Did what we were supposed to do: shook off the rust, broke in the new team, and beat the brakes off a (good) FCS team. I like Austin as our new DC, Nagle showed an actual offense that Barbay couldn't have even imagined, and Weigman looks comfy, even if he would have thrown a …”— r/CFB
Five Lenses
What people are saying right now
Radio, beat writers & editorial8 posts
Diehard fan boards15 posts
The broader fanbase10 posts
News & campus coverage8 posts
CFB analyst takes2 posts
Rent free · r/cfb fan posts, last season
Houston fans this offseason 35% of posts bring up another team▼2pp quieter#12 of 43 saltiest · mostly about Texas
Fanbase Health Index · Houston · high confidence
Fanbase Health Index · Houston · high confidenceGrowing (67)
DecliningStableGrowingSurging
On-Field — 10-3 (77% win rate)81
Volume — 617 effective signal-N86
Cohort Engagement — Divergence 0.02 — quiet35
From the booth
The Lexicon
366 posts and articles vs the field · 2025 season
fritz
×180.2 the field
Signature — ≥10× the rest of college football
fritz×180.2n=16
weigman×265.4n=15
cougar×102.5n=12
coogs×190.6n=10
Mild — <3×
offense×3.0n=90
Characteristic — 3–10×
per×6.3n=11
defense×1.8n=74
third×4.3n=11
offensive line×3.6n=12
line×2.2n=26
“Has nothing to do with what we’ve accomplished or the fact it’s only year 2 with Fritz I am ecstatic about that. I just wish our offense was not so miserably boring.”
reddit/CFB · fan post, verbatim
Fanbase Voice
650 fan mentions
Believers
vs the 81 highest-volume fanbases - 2025 season
Key stats — 2025 — FBS rank
Points/game#49 / 138 · 65th pct29.1
Pts allowed/game#46 / 138 · 67th pct22.8
Total yards/gm#56 / 136 · 60th pct395.0
Rush yards/gm#39 / 136 · 72nd pct178.6
Pass yards/gm#73 / 136 · 47th pct216.4
Yards allowed/gm#48 / 136 · 65th pct347.8
Rush yds allowed/gm#37 / 136 · 74th pct129.0
Sacks#55 / 136 · 60th pct28
Interceptions#42 / 136 · 70th pct12
3rd-down conv#57 / 136 · 59th pct40.8%
All 98 stats
Offense / Defense
Total yards
Team5135395.0/gm5.57/play#56 / 136 · 60th pct#32 / 69 · 55th pct#9 / 16 · 50th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
Opp4522347.8/gm5.30/play#48 / 136 · 65th pct#34 / 69 · 52nd pct#5 / 16 · 75th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Rush yards
Team2322178.6/gm2.52/play#39 / 136 · 72nd pct#17 / 69 · 77th pct#5 / 16 · 75th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Opp1677129.0/gm1.97/play#37 / 136 · 74th pct#32 / 69 · 55th pct#4 / 16 · 81st pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Rush carries
Team54541.9/gm#22 / 136 · 85th pct#10 / 69 · 87th pct#3 / 16 · 88th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Opp45034.6/gm#61 / 136 · 56th pct#38 / 69 · 46th pct#5 / 16 · 75th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
Rush TDs
Team171.3/gm#85 / 136 · 38th pct#49 / 69 · 30th pct#12 / 16 · 31st pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
Opp171.3/gm#50 / 136 · 64th pct#33 / 69 · 54th pct#6 / 16 · 69th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Net pass yards
Team2813216.4/gm3.05/play#73 / 136 · 47th pct#44 / 69 · 38th pct#9 / 16 · 50th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Opp2845218.8/gm3.34/play#79 / 136 · 43rd pct#43 / 69 · 39th pct#10 / 16 · 44th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Pass attempts
Team37729.0/gm#86 / 136 · 38th pct#45 / 69 · 36th pct#8 / 16 · 56th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Opp40331.0/gm#84 / 136 · 39th pct#40 / 69 · 43rd pct#12 / 16 · 31st pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Completions
Team24218.6/gm#70 / 136 · 49th pct#39 / 69 · 45th pct#8 / 16 · 56th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Opp24318.7/gm#78 / 136 · 43rd pct#36 / 69 · 49th pct#10 / 16 · 44th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Pass TDs
Team262.0/gm#25 / 136 · 82nd pct#17 / 69 · 77th pct#7 / 16 · 62nd pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Opp161.2/gm#40 / 136 · 71st pct#27 / 69 · 62nd pct#7 / 16 · 62nd pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Passer rating
Team143.3143.3#40 / 136 · 71st pct#28 / 69 · 61st pct#5 / 16 · 75th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Opp127.7127.7#53 / 136 · 62nd pct#32 / 69 · 55th pct#9 / 16 · 50th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Interceptions thrown
Team100.8/gm#56 / 136 · 60th pct#23 / 69 · 68th pct#6 / 16 · 69th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
Opp120.9/gm#84 / 136 · 39th pct#44 / 69 · 38th pct#10 / 16 · 44th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Sacks (def)
Team282.2/gm#55 / 136 · 60th pct#33 / 69 · 54th pct#6 / 16 · 69th pct#3 / 10 · 80th pct
Opp191.5/gm#27 / 136 · 81st pct#16 / 69 · 78th pct#5 / 16 · 75th pct#3 / 10 · 80th pct
Tackles for loss
Team614.7/gm#97 / 136 · 29th pct#50 / 69 · 29th pct#12 / 16 · 31st pct#8 / 10 · 30th pct
Opp685.2/gm#71 / 136 · 49th pct#37 / 69 · 48th pct#7 / 16 · 62nd pct#4 / 10 · 70th pct
First downs
Team28722.1/gm#39 / 136 · 72nd pct#24 / 69 · 67th pct#7 / 16 · 62nd pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Opp23518.1/gm#41 / 136 · 71st pct#28 / 69 · 61st pct#6 / 16 · 69th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
3rd-down conv
Team806.2/gm#20 / 136 · 86th pct#12 / 69 · 84th pct#4 / 16 · 81st pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Opp665.1/gm#53 / 136 · 62nd pct#32 / 69 · 55th pct#9 / 16 · 50th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
3rd-down att
Team19615.1/gm#12 / 136 · 92nd pct#6 / 69 · 93rd pct#2 / 16 · 94th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Opp18414.2/gm#93 / 136 · 32nd pct#49 / 69 · 30th pct#10 / 16 · 44th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
4th-down conv
Team191.5/gm#21 / 136 · 85th pct#11 / 69 · 86th pct#5 / 16 · 75th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Opp131.0/gm#58 / 136 · 58th pct#28 / 69 · 61st pct#3 / 16 · 88th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
4th-down att
Team322.5/gm#26 / 136 · 82nd pct#10 / 69 · 87th pct#5 / 16 · 75th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Opp262.0/gm#67 / 136 · 51st pct#33 / 69 · 54th pct#4 / 16 · 81st pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct
Time of possession
Team420:0432:19/gm#23 / 136 · 84th pct#12 / 69 · 84th pct#3 / 16 · 88th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Opp359:5627:41/gm#26 / 136 · 82nd pct#9 / 69 · 88th pct#3 / 16 · 88th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Kicking & Punting
Field goals#52 / 135 · 62nd pct21/26 (80.8%)
Extra points43/43
Punting#53 / 136 · 62nd pct44.1 avg · 53 punts
Turnovers & special teams
Turnovers
Team141.1/gm#90 / 136 · 35th pct#40 / 69 · 43rd pct#11 / 16 · 38th pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct
Opp181.4/gm#79 / 136 · 43rd pct#41 / 69 · 42nd pct#8 / 16 · 56th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Fumbles lost
Team40.3/gm#112 / 136 · 18th pct#53 / 69 · 25th pct#16 / 16 · 6th pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct
Opp60.5/gm#49 / 136 · 65th pct#23 / 69 · 68th pct#4 / 16 · 81st pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
INT return TDs
Team20.2/gm#18 / 135 · 87th pct#12 / 69 · 84th pct#3 / 16 · 88th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Opp20.2/gm#105 / 136 · 24th pct#57 / 69 · 19th pct#13 / 16 · 25th pct#7 / 10 · 40th pct
INT return yards
Team13910.7/gm#54 / 136 · 61st pct#28 / 69 · 61st pct#7 / 16 · 62nd pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
Opp24618.9/gm#127 / 136 · 7th pct#66 / 69 · 6th pct#16 / 16 · 6th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Punt ret yds
Team1289.8/gm#72 / 136 · 48th pct#47 / 69 · 33rd pct#11 / 16 · 38th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
Opp24719.0/gm#120 / 136 · 12th pct#60 / 69 · 14th pct#14 / 16 · 19th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Punt ret TDs
Team00.0/gm#43 / 135 · 69th pct#23 / 69 · 68th pct#4 / 16 · 81st pct#7 / 11 · 45th pct
Opp00.0/gm#1 / 135 · 100th pct#1 / 69 · 100th pct#1 / 16 · 100th pct#1 / 10 · 100th pct
Kick ret yds
Team41932.2/gm#73 / 136 · 47th pct#30 / 69 · 58th pct#9 / 16 · 50th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Opp75157.8/gm#129 / 136 · 6th pct#67 / 69 · 4th pct#15 / 16 · 12th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Kick ret TDs
Team00.0/gm#40 / 136 · 71st pct#17 / 69 · 77th pct#5 / 16 · 75th pct#8 / 11 · 36th pct
Opp10.1/gm#97 / 135 · 29th pct#53 / 69 · 25th pct#13 / 16 · 25th pct#6 / 11 · 55th pct
Penalty yards
Team52140.1/gm#117 / 136 · 15th pct#56 / 69 · 20th pct#13 / 16 · 25th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Opp86766.7/gm#124 / 136 · 10th pct#67 / 69 · 4th pct#16 / 16 · 6th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Other
H2 epa per play opponent#14 / 143 · 91st pct#8 / 69 · 90th pct#2 / 16 · 94th pct0.10.0/gm
Fumbles rec (def)#25 / 136 · 82nd pct#17 / 69 · 77th pct#1 / 16 · 100th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct50.4/gm
Punt returns#32 / 136 · 77th pct#18 / 69 · 75th pct#4 / 16 · 81st pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct211.6/gm
Interceptions (def)#42 / 136 · 70th pct#22 / 69 · 70th pct#7 / 16 · 62nd pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct120.9/gm
H2 epa per play#48 / 142 · 67th pct#27 / 69 · 62nd pct#7 / 16 · 62nd pct0.20.0/gm
H1 epa per play opponent#49 / 167 · 71st pct#27 / 69 · 62nd pct#5 / 16 · 75th pct0.10.0/gm
Recruiting rating#52 / 138 · 63rd pct#52 / 69 · 26th pct#10 / 16 · 44th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct198.715.3/gm
Kick returns#56 / 136 · 60th pct#19 / 69 · 74th pct#6 / 16 · 69th pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct221.7/gm
Fourth down go rate#58 / 138 · 59th pct#28 / 69 · 61st pct#10 / 16 · 44th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct0.40.0/gm
Passes intercepted opponent#64 / 136 · 54th pct#38 / 69 · 46th pct#9 / 16 · 50th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct100.8/gm
Fumbles recovered#70 / 136 · 49th pct#33 / 69 · 54th pct#12 / 16 · 31st pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct60.5/gm
Punt ret (opp)#85 / 136 · 38th pct#49 / 69 · 30th pct#11 / 16 · 38th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct171.3/gm
Red zone pass rate#93 / 154 · 40th pct#42 / 69 · 41st pct#9 / 16 · 50th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct0.40.0/gm
Kick ret (opp)#109 / 136 · 21st pct#61 / 69 · 13th pct#15 / 16 · 12th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct292.2/gm
Penalties#114 / 136 · 17th pct#52 / 69 · 26th pct#13 / 16 · 25th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct604.6/gm
H1 epa per play#120 / 162 · 27th pct#63 / 69 · 10th pct#13 / 16 · 25th pct0.10.0/gm
Penalties (opp)#126 / 136 · 8th pct#67 / 69 · 4th pct#16 / 16 · 6th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct987.5/gm
First down pass rate#171 / 215 · 21st pct#67 / 69 · 4th pct#15 / 16 · 12th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct0.40.0/gm
Situational
3rd-down conversion
Off40.8%#57 / 136 · 59th pct#33 / 69 · 54th pct#6 / 16 · 69th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
Def35.9%#41 / 136 · 71st pct#23 / 69 · 68th pct#6 / 16 · 69th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
4th-down conversion
Off59.4%#41 / 136 · 71st pct#25 / 69 · 65th pct#6 / 16 · 69th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Def50.0%#51 / 136 · 63rd pct#24 / 69 · 67th pct#5 / 16 · 75th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Turnover margin#43 / 136 · 69th pct#23 / 69 · 68th pct#6 / 16 · 69th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct+0.31/gm
Sack rate (def)#57 / 136 · 59th pct#36 / 69 · 49th pct#7 / 16 · 62nd pct#4 / 10 · 70th pct6.9%
Red Zone & Drive Efficiency (2014– , play-by-play derived)
Red zone trips
Team413.2/gm#80 / 167 · 53rd pct#46 / 69 · 35th pct#11 / 16 · 38th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Opp413.2/gm#91 / 166 · 46th pct#39 / 69 · 45th pct#9 / 16 · 50th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Red zone score %
Team78.0%78.0%#83 / 167 · 51st pct#45 / 69 · 36th pct#8 / 16 · 56th pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct
Opp70.7%70.7%#27 / 166 · 84th pct#10 / 69 · 87th pct#4 / 16 · 81st pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Points / drive
Team1.80.1/gm#95 / 167 · 44th pct#54 / 69 · 23rd pct#13 / 16 · 25th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Opp1.60.1/gm#35 / 166 · 80th pct#24 / 69 · 67th pct#6 / 16 · 69th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Yards / drive
Team42.73.3/gm#58 / 167 · 66th pct#35 / 69 · 51st pct#10 / 16 · 44th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Opp36.12.8/gm#30 / 166 · 83rd pct#17 / 69 · 77th pct#2 / 16 · 94th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Plays / drive
Team6.70.5/gm#49 / 167 · 71st pct#27 / 69 · 62nd pct#6 / 16 · 69th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Opp6.40.5/gm#50 / 166 · 70th pct#17 / 69 · 77th pct#3 / 16 · 88th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Three-and-out rate
Team13.5%13.5%#82 / 167 · 52nd pct#42 / 69 · 41st pct#11 / 16 · 38th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Opp13.6%13.6%#83 / 166 · 51st pct#43 / 69 · 39th pct#9 / 16 · 50th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Scheme Identity (2014– , play-by-play derived)
Rush rate over expected#25 / 145 · 83rd pct#5 / 69 · 94th pct#2 / 16 · 94th pct+6.3%+6.3%
Havoc rate
Team16.5%16.5%#59 / 140 · 59th pct#35 / 69 · 51st pct#9 / 16 · 50th pct
Opp14.1%14.1%#51 / 140 · 64th pct#24 / 69 · 67th pct#3 / 16 · 88th pct
Standard-downs success
Team49.4%49.4%#59 / 154 · 62nd pct#35 / 69 · 51st pct#8 / 16 · 56th pct
Opp49.3%49.3%#93 / 172 · 47th pct#44 / 69 · 38th pct#11 / 16 · 38th pct
Passing-downs success
Team28.1%28.1%#106 / 153 · 31st pct#58 / 69 · 17th pct#13 / 16 · 25th pct
Opp24.5%24.5%#11 / 149 · 93rd pct#6 / 69 · 93rd pct#2 / 16 · 94th pct
Line yards / carry
Team2.62.6#124 / 143 · 14th pct#63 / 69 · 10th pct#14 / 16 · 19th pct
Opp2.72.7#31 / 155 · 81st pct#15 / 69 · 80th pct#3 / 16 · 88th pct
Stuff rate
Team20.7%20.7%#107 / 143 · 26th pct#54 / 69 · 23rd pct#12 / 16 · 31st pct
Opp20.5%20.5%#44 / 155 · 72nd pct#24 / 69 · 67th pct#6 / 16 · 69th pct
Power success rate
Team78.0%78.0%#20 / 137 · 86th pct#12 / 69 · 84th pct#5 / 16 · 75th pct
Opp73.2%73.2%#91 / 141 · 36th pct#46 / 69 · 35th pct#10 / 16 · 44th pct
Efficiency
Completion %
Off64.2%#42 / 136 · 70th pct#25 / 69 · 65th pct#3 / 16 · 88th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
Def60.3%#46 / 136 · 67th pct#21 / 69 · 71st pct#7 / 16 · 62nd pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
Yards / attempt
Off7.5#55 / 136 · 60th pct#35 / 69 · 51st pct#8 / 16 · 56th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
Def7.1#64 / 136 · 54th pct#39 / 69 · 45th pct#10 / 16 · 44th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Yards / completion
Off11.6#67 / 136 · 51st pct#38 / 69 · 46th pct#12 / 16 · 31st pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
Def11.7#79 / 136 · 43rd pct#51 / 69 · 28th pct#10 / 16 · 44th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Yards / carry#81 / 136 · 41st pct#43 / 69 · 39th pct#11 / 16 · 38th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct4.3
Yards / play#77 / 136 · 44th pct#45 / 69 · 36th pct#13 / 16 · 25th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct5.57
Scoring margin#48 / 136 · 65th pct#33 / 69 · 54th pct#6 / 16 · 69th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct+6.2/gm
FBS rankings · 2025 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
Player stats — 2025 season
Quarterbacks
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scrambler · +0.29 EPA/play | 1 | 13 | 232 / 356 | 65.2 | 2705 #53 FBS | 7.6 | 25 #19 FBS | 9 | 147.1 | 64.0 | 7.4 | 3.5 | |
Yards by week → ScramblerMakes plays with feet when the pocket collapses. Efficiency still on the rise. Watch-list name — on at least one major award watch list, no hardware yet — trending, not yet confirmed. 45 of 183 QBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Rush usage32.3% 83th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Rush yards / carry4.1 81th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like our readBreakout: his CFB Index score now sits at the 87th percentile among FBS QBs, up from the 19th | |||||||||||||
| +0.36 EPA/play | 2 | 4 | 10 / 21 | 47.6 | 108 | 5.1 | 1 | 1 | 97.0 | 52.0 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||||
Running Backs
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Stuff% | 10+% | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Back · -0.02 EPA/play | 44 | 13 | 200 | 977 #46 FBS | 4.9 | 6 | 54 | 19.6 | 18.6 | 17.7 | 12.0 | 10.7% (35/326) | |
Yards by week → Balanced BackPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 186 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / carry5.3 bottom 39th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Rush TD rate3.0% bottom 32th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Dean Connors's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Balanced Back · +0.02 EPA/play | 25 | 11 | 68 | 301 | 4.4 | 0 | 15 | 5 | 6.3 | 7.6 | 12.1 | — | |
Yards by week → Balanced BackPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 186 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / carry5.1 bottom 32th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Rush TD rate0.0% bottom 6th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View DJ Butler's full player page | |||||||||||||
| -0.02 EPA/play | 21 | 10 | 37 | 130 | 3.5 | 0 | 16 | 5.3 | 7.0 | — | — | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||||
| -0.28 EPA/play | 20 | 4 | 28 | 82 | 2.9 | 0 | 12 | 5 | 9.5 | — | — | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||||
Receivers
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jump-Ball Target · +0.69 EPA/play | — | 13 | 67 | 966 #26 FBS | 14.4 | 12 #5 FBS | 64 | 15.3 | 11.7 | 26.4% (86/326) | |
Yards by week → Jump-Ball TargetWins contested catches at the goal line. Size and catch radius are the weapons. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The rare part: he finds the end zone — and every touch moves the offense, too 29 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TD rate17.9% 94th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Total EPA (college ability)58.8 98th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions — the part the label misses Trait fingerprint Plays like our readSustained Ascent: his CFB Index score shows two real climbs in a row — 64th to 83rd to 97th percentile among FBS WRs | |||||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.66 EPA/play | 9 | 13 | 74 | 727 | 9.8 | 6 #62 FBS | 50 | 12.7 | 11.7 | 26.1% (85/326) | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 177 of 223 TEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception10.4 bottom 42th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Reception volume74 100th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Tanner Koziol's full player page | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.77 EPA/play | 5 | 5 | 13 | 275 | 21.2 | 2 | 74 | 4.9 | 9.8 | 7.1% (23/326) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. The most common profile in its group this season — 332 of 558 classified this way. Played in 5 of 21 games this season · senior View Stephon Johnson Jr.'s full player page | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.50 EPA/play | 18 | 9 | 12 | 191 | 15.9 | 0 | 43 | 2.8 | 4 | 7.7% (25/326) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception14.4 54th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate0.0% bottom 8th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Koby Young's full player page | |||||||||||
| +0.73 EPA/play | 3 | 7 | 9 | 126 | 14 | 1 | 29 | 6.8 | 3.9 | 5.8% (19/326) | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
| +0.18 EPA/play | 80 | 6 | 5 | 69 | 13.8 | 0 | 26 | 3.2 | 5.7 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
| -0.63 EPA/play | 4 | 12 | 6 | 24 | 4 | 0 | 16 | 2 | 3.4 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
Defensive Line
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Two-Gap Base | 5 | 13 | 72 | 32 | 7.5 | 1.5 | 0 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. 388 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate10.4% bottom 33th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readUnranked recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 90 | 13 | 64 | 36 | 11.5 #62 FBS | 7 #39 FBS | 9 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate18.0% 64th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles our readAscending: his CFB Index score now sits at the 98th percentile among FBS IDLs, up from the 73rd | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 18 | 12 | 34 | 19 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 388 of 809 classified this way. Played in 12 of 21 games this season · junior our readSustained Ascent: his CFB Index score shows two real climbs in a row — 10th to 35th to 87th percentile among FBS IDLs | |||||||
| 41 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 49 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 98 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
Linebackers
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Linebacker | 36 | 13 | 76 | 40 | 36 | 3.5 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 362 of 660 classified this way. Played in 13 of 21 games this season · senior · 3-star, 2021 class our readSustained Ascent: his CFB Index score shows two real climbs in a row — 0th to 26th to 68th percentile among FBS LBs | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 12 | 11 | 53 | 26 | 27 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 362 of 660 classified this way. Played in 11 of 21 games this season · junior View Sione Fotu's full player page | |||||||||
| Coverage 'Backer | 9 | 12 | 41 | 21 | 20 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
Coverage 'BackerCarries tight ends and patrols the middle of the field in coverage. 99 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate4.9% 79th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Sack rate7.3% 80th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Corey Platt Jr.'s full player page | |||||||||
| Thumper | 10 | 12 | 37 | 21 | 16 | 2.5 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
ThumperDownhill striker who fills the run lane and blitzes off the edge. 97 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate6.8% bottom 36th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles PD rate5.4% 84th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like our readSustained Ascent: his CFB Index score shows two real climbs in a row — 1st to 30th to 70th percentile among FBS LBs | |||||||||
| Thumper | 4 | 12 | 32 | 18 | 14 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
ThumperDownhill striker who fills the run lane and blitzes off the edge. 97 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate18.8% 91th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Sack rate15.6% 100th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Brandon Mack's full player page | |||||||||
| Coverage 'Backer | 25 | 11 | 24 | 14 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Coverage 'BackerCarries tight ends and patrols the middle of the field in coverage. 99 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate8.3% 98th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Tackle volume24 bottom 17th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Carmycah Glass's full player page | |||||||||
| 2 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Defensive Backs
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Box Safety | 8 | 13 | 71 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Box SafetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 166 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume71 92th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like our readSustained Ascent: his CFB Index score shows two real climbs in a row — 1st to 38th to 71st percentile among FBS Ss | |||||||
| Rover | 1 | 12 | 52 | 8 #45 FBS | 0 | 3 | 1 |
RoverHits like a linebacker and still takes the ball away. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 83 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate15.4% 84th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score climbed from the 21st percentile to the 68th among FBS Ss | |||||||
| Box Safety | 24 | 13 | 49 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 2.5 |
Box Safety· Takeaway threatLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. the kind of DB who takes it back the other way Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 166 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume49 63th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Wrook Brown's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 6 | 13 | 48 | 2 | 0 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 419 of 801 classified this way. Played in 13 of 21 games this season · sophomore View Jordan Allen's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 15 | 12 | 39 | 5 | 3 #56 FBS | 4 | 0 |
Hybrid Nickel· Takeaway threatMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. the kind of DB who takes it back the other way All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 419 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate12.8% 74th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like our readReinvented: changed shape entirely — Centerfielder to Hybrid Nickel, his CFB Index score climbed from the 36th percentile to the 91st among FBS Ss | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 22 | 12 | 28 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 419 of 801 classified this way. Played in 12 of 21 games this season · senior our readFading: his CFB Index score moved from the 97th to 56th percentile among FBS Ss | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 21 | 11 | 19 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 133 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate36.8% 100th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Zelmar Vedder's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | — | 8 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 419 of 801 classified this way. Played in 8 of 21 games this season · senior our readFading: his CFB Index score climbed from the 54th percentile to the 15th among FBS Ss | |||||||
| 13 | 7 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 33 | 7 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 19 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Kicking
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 92 | 13 | 21/26 | 80.8 | 43/43 | 106 | 52 |
Punting
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 91 | 13 | 53 | 2336 | 44.1 | 60 | 18 | 8 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
Kick Returns
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -0.63 EPA/play | 4 | 12 | 18 | 393 | 21.8 | 0 | 35 |
Punt Returns
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -0.63 EPA/play | 4 | 12 | 20 | 126 | 6.3 | 0 | 21 |
2025 stat leaders
final
2025 stat leaders
1.
Amare Thomas
WR
966 yds (rec)
2.
Jalen Garner
LB
76.0 tot (def)
3.
Carlos Allen
DL
72.0 tot (def)
4.
Kentrell Webb
DB
71.0 tot (def)
5.
Conner Weigman
QB
2,705 yds (pass)
Roster
2025
23
players carry a qualified CFB Index Score this season.
Tanner Koziol
TE
#1 of 156
Amare Thomas
WR
#17 of 485
Eddie Walls III
EDGE
#16 of 420
Carlos Allen
IDL
#24 of 330
Will James
CB
#45 of 364
Conner Weigman
QB
#24 of 146
+17 more
Houston · 2025 schedule & results10-3Brutal slateAverage opponent win rate 47% · 5 AP top-25 opponents on the schedule. 1 ranked win banked (time-of-game rank).
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 | #40 | #123 | -23.5 | Stephen F. Austin | W 27–0 131 | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 6 | #48 | #77 | -13.5 | @Rice | W 35–9 125 | 2-0 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 12 | #34 | #101 | -4 | Colorado | W 36–20 135 | 3-0 | 1-0 |
| 5 | Sep 27 | #45 | #95 | -12.5 | @Oregon State | W 27–24 147 | 4-0 | 1-0 |
| 6 | Oct 4 | #50 | #16 | +11.5 | Texas Tech | L 11–35 143 | 4-1 | 1-1 |
| 7 | Oct 11 | #55 | #137 | -14.5 | @Oklahoma State | W 39–17 129 | 5-1 | 2-1 |
| 8 | Oct 18 | #54 | #62 | +2.5 | Arizona | W 31–28 125 | 6-1 | 3-1 |
| 9 | Oct 26 | #55 | #32 | +7.5 | @Arizona StateTop 25 win | W 24–16 137 | 7-1 | 4-1 |
| 10 | Nov 1 | #48 | #118 | -13 | West Virginia | L 35–45 142 | 7-2 | 4-2 |
| 11 | Nov 8 | #60 | #66 | +1 | @UCF | W 30–27 140 | 8-2 | 5-2 |
| 13 | Nov 22 | #61 | #48 | +1.5 | TCU | L 14–17 138 | 8-3 | 5-3 |
| 14 | Nov 29 | #62 | #55 | +2.5 | @Baylor | W 31–24 151 | 9-3 | 6-3 |
| Bowl Season | ||||||||
| 18 | Dec 28 | #54 | #35 | -1.5 | LSU (N) | W 38–35 | 10-3 | 6-3 |
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)▼
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 28 | LSU | W 38–35 | — | — | — | +0.253 | 48.2% | 116.0% | Defense's roughest night |
| Nov 29 | @Baylor | W 31–24 | 417 | 1 | 36:26 | +0.148 | 45.9% | 105.9% | One-score win |
| Nov 22 | TCU | L 14–17 | 391 | 1 | 32:28 | +0.011 | 36.1% | 121.9% | One-score loss |
| Nov 8 | @UCF | W 30–27 | 433 | 4 | 34:38 | -0.056 | 47.0% | 101.3% | One-score win |
| Nov 1 | West Virginia | L 35–45 | 400 | 4 | 29:31 | +0.130 | 48.5% | 147.5% | |
| Oct 26 | @Arizona State | W 24–16 | 384 | 0 | 37:02 | +0.111 | 42.5% | 112.5% | One-score win |
| Oct 18 | Arizona | W 31–28 | 396 | 0 | 29:32 | +0.370 | 55.7% | 106.0% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Oct 11 | @Oklahoma State | W 39–17 | 487 | 0 | 36:28 | +0.229 | 45.2% | 111.2% | |
| Oct 4 | Texas Tech | L 11–35 | 267 | 3 | 22:02 | -0.084 | 37.0% | 118.8% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 27 | @Oregon State | W 27–24 | 354 | 1 | 24:37 | +0.037 | 29.7% | 129.7% | One-score win |
| Sep 12 | Colorado | W 36–20 | 431 | 0 | 36:45 | +0.018 | 39.7% | 123.7% | |
| Sep 6 | @Rice | W 35–9 | 395 | 0 | 27:14 | +0.161 | 28.0% | 191.7% | Most explosive |
| Aug 29 | Stephen F. Austin | W 27–0 | 343 | 0 | 34:49 | -0.005 | 33.3% | 135.8% | Best defensive stand |
| Season average (13 games) | 392 | 1.2 | +0.102 | 41.3% | 124.8% | ||||
How They Play · 2025
How They Play · 2025Houston fields a struggling offense behind a strong, bend-don't-break defense.
Opponent-adjusted percentiles vs all FBS. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Team identity · competitive snaps only
How Houston actually scores
27th percentile quality, 65th percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 86th | 11th |
| Akron | 12th | 89th |
| Alabama | 58th | 17th |
| App State | 35th | 47th |
| Arizona | 64th | 37th |
| Arizona State | 41st | 62nd |
| Arkansas | 90th | 12th |
| Arkansas State | 17th | 66th |
| Army | 57th | 43rd |
| Auburn | 47th | 53rd |
| BYU | 78th | 19th |
| Baylor | 69th | 25th |
| Boise State | 66th | 20th |
| Boston College | 37th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 2nd | 98th |
| Buffalo | 11th | 88th |
| California | 28th | 48th |
| Central Michigan | 52nd | 64th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 16th |
| Clemson | 51st | 48th |
| Coastal Carolina | 17th | 83rd |
| Colorado | 18th | 84th |
| Colorado State | 16th | 83rd |
| Delaware | 38th | 58th |
| Duke | 80th | 14th |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 36th |
| Eastern Michigan | 49th | 42nd |
| Florida | 30th | 67th |
| Florida Atlantic | 62nd | 59th |
| Florida International | 42nd | 50th |
| Florida State | 83rd | 32nd |
| Fresno State | 26th | 73rd |
| Georgia | 81st | 3rd |
| Georgia Southern | 73rd | 21st |
| Georgia State | 36th | 70th |
| Georgia Tech | 84th | 5th |
| Hawai'i | 64th | 41st |
| Houston | 27th | 65th |
| Illinois | 75th | 26th |
| Indiana | 95th | 1st |
| Iowa | 44th | 40th |
| Iowa State | 68th | 22nd |
| Jacksonville State | 54th | 38th |
| James Madison | 65th | 44th |
| Kansas | 85th | 28th |
| Kansas State | 71st | 49th |
| Kennesaw State | 56th | 30th |
| Kent State | 21st | 86th |
| Kentucky | 15th | 85th |
| LSU | 14th | 81st |
| Liberty | 43rd | 56th |
| Louisiana | 19th | 73rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 39th | 61st |
| Louisville | 48th | 64th |
| Marshall | 55th | 39th |
| Maryland | 30th | 74th |
| Memphis | 80th | 24th |
| Miami | 76th | 5th |
| Miami (OH) | 34th | 67th |
| Michigan | 67th | 33rd |
| Michigan State | 27th | 75th |
| Middle Tennessee | 39th | 52nd |
| Minnesota | 29th | 77th |
| Mississippi State | 22nd | 77th |
| Missouri | 61st | 30th |
| Missouri State | 55th | 46th |
| NC State | 86th | 23rd |
| Navy | 94th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 48th | 57th |
| Nevada | 3rd | 97th |
| New Mexico | 58th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 9th | 87th |
| North Carolina | 13th | 89th |
| North Texas | 98th | 7th |
| Northern Illinois | 8th | 92nd |
| Northwestern | 52nd | 36th |
| Notre Dame | 99th | 20th |
| Ohio | 67th | 18th |
| Ohio State | 93rd | 4th |
| Oklahoma | 20th | 80th |
| Oklahoma State | 5th | 95th |
| Old Dominion | 83rd | 45th |
| Ole Miss | 89th | 2nd |
| Oregon | 91st | 10th |
| Oregon State | 2nd | 98th |
| Penn State | 73rd | 33rd |
| Pittsburgh | 60th | 39th |
| Purdue | 25th | 78th |
| Rice | 6th | 94th |
| Rutgers | 70th | 27th |
| SMU | 74th | 42nd |
| Sam Houston | 4th | 96th |
| San Diego State | 24th | 76th |
| San José State | 45th | 69th |
| South Alabama | 36th | 58th |
| South Carolina | 23rd | 86th |
| South Florida | 87th | 23rd |
| Southern Miss | 40th | 55th |
| Stanford | 10th | 90th |
| Syracuse | 5th | 95th |
| TCU | 72nd | 35th |
| Temple | 70th | 34th |
| Tennessee | 96th | 11th |
| Texas | 45th | 55th |
| Texas A&M | 82nd | 14th |
| Texas State | 92nd | 8th |
| Texas Tech | 77th | 31st |
| Toledo | 50th | 61st |
| Troy | 14th | 80th |
| Tulane | 79th | 15th |
| Tulsa | 20th | 70th |
| UAB | 61st | 45th |
| UCF | 33rd | 82nd |
| UCLA | 23rd | 79th |
| UConn | 95th | 13th |
| UL Monroe | 11th | 92nd |
| UNLV | 88th | 9th |
| USC | 98th | 2nd |
| UTEP | 1st | 99th |
| UTSA | 77th | 51st |
| Utah | 97th | 6th |
| Utah State | 46th | 63rd |
| Vanderbilt | 100th | 0th |
| Virginia | 59th | 27th |
| Virginia Tech | 32nd | 71st |
| Wake Forest | 42nd | 72nd |
| Washington | 92nd | 8th |
| Washington State | 33rd | 52nd |
| West Virginia | 7th | 93rd |
| Western Kentucky | 53rd | 29th |
| Western Michigan | 31st | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 0th | 100th |
| Wyoming | 8th | 91st |
Fourth-quarter reliability, corrected
Houston's 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 37th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it climbs to the 58th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
Does Houston hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?
61st percentile success on standard downs, 29th on passing downs — a 32-point gap between the two.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 82nd | 69th |
| Akron | 20th | 36th |
| Alabama | 47th | 76th |
| App State | 41st | 80th |
| Arizona | 54th | 54th |
| Arizona State | 40th | 37th |
| Arkansas | 90th | 97th |
| Arkansas State | 51st | 40th |
| Army | 37th | 44th |
| Auburn | 73rd | 24th |
| Austin Peay | 56th | 13th |
| BYU | 91st | 46th |
| Ball State | 5th | 3rd |
| Baylor | 70th | 77th |
| Boise State | 42nd | 63rd |
| Boston College | 56th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 10th | 17th |
| Bryant | 7th | 2nd |
| Buffalo | 29th | 20th |
| California | 25th | 66th |
| Central Michigan | 57th | 11th |
| Charlotte | 7th | 7th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 65th |
| Clemson | 49th | 34th |
| Coastal Carolina | 16th | 22nd |
| Colorado | 8th | 48th |
| Colorado State | 29th | 35th |
| Delaware | 66th | 31st |
| Duke | 82nd | 63rd |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 91st |
| Eastern Michigan | 46th | 67th |
| Florida | 52nd | 45th |
| Florida Atlantic | 44th | 61st |
| Florida International | 50th | 26th |
| Florida State | 65th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 22nd | 71st |
| Georgia | 95th | 69th |
| Georgia Southern | 64th | 84th |
| Georgia State | 22nd | 75th |
| Georgia Tech | 92nd | 89th |
| Hawai'i | 33rd | 87th |
| Houston | 61st | 29th |
| Idaho | 30th | 78th |
| Idaho State | 93rd | 14th |
| Illinois | 79th | 95th |
| Indiana | 97th | 98th |
| Iowa | 74th | 19th |
| Iowa State | 80th | 58th |
| Jacksonville State | 59th | 56th |
| James Madison | 77th | 52nd |
| Kansas | 99th | 82nd |
| Kansas State | 37th | 59th |
| Kennesaw State | 44th | 67th |
| Kent State | 15th | 5th |
| Kentucky | 62nd | 29th |
| LSU | 18th | 52nd |
| Lafayette | 0th | 12th |
| Liberty | 65th | 53rd |
| Lindenwood | 4th | 1st |
| Long Island University | 24th | 78th |
| Louisiana | 24th | 23rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 41st | 24th |
| Louisville | 84th | 32nd |
| Maine | 3rd | 18th |
| Marshall | 71st | 62nd |
| Maryland | 11th | 86th |
| Massachusetts | 5th | 9th |
| Memphis | 75th | 68th |
| Merrimack | 1st | 83rd |
| Miami | 80th | 64th |
| Miami (OH) | 33rd | 39th |
| Michigan | 73rd | 74th |
| Michigan State | 48th | 39th |
| Middle Tennessee | 69th | 47th |
| Minnesota | 35th | 33rd |
| Mississippi State | 52nd | 35th |
| Missouri | 76th | 50th |
| Missouri State | 32nd | 50th |
| Murray State | 1st | 6th |
| NC State | 58th | 71st |
| Navy | 95th | 72nd |
| Nebraska | 78th | 51st |
| Nevada | 17th | 16th |
| New Mexico | 38th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 16th | 33rd |
| North Carolina | 14th | 30th |
| North Texas | 100th | 97th |
| Northern Illinois | 9th | 5th |
| Northwestern | 48th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 88th | 99th |
| Ohio | 69th | 76th |
| Ohio State | 99th | 99th |
| Oklahoma | 39th | 41st |
| Oklahoma State | 14th | 7th |
| Old Dominion | 72nd | 79th |
| Ole Miss | 83rd | 95th |
| Oregon | 93rd | 55th |
| Oregon State | 54th | 25th |
| Penn State | 76th | 73rd |
| Pittsburgh | 35th | 56th |
| Purdue | 46th | 88th |
| Rice | 20th | 0th |
| Rutgers | 71st | 84th |
| SMU | 50th | 57th |
| Sam Houston | 26th | 4th |
| San Diego State | 84th | 1st |
| San José State | 68th | 70th |
| South Alabama | 53rd | 28th |
| South Carolina | 31st | 8th |
| South Carolina State | 10th | 3rd |
| South Florida | 86th | 46th |
| Southern Miss | 27th | 38th |
| Stanford | 12th | 12th |
| Syracuse | 19th | 10th |
| TCU | 63rd | 82nd |
| Temple | 85th | 22nd |
| Tennessee | 97th | 81st |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 88th | 59th |
| Texas State | 60th | 93rd |
| Texas Tech | 45th | 65th |
| Toledo | 67th | 42nd |
| Troy | 18th | 27th |
| Tulane | 81st | 86th |
| Tulsa | 43rd | 43rd |
| UAB | 34th | 94th |
| UCF | 39th | 20th |
| UCLA | 28th | 48th |
| UConn | 96th | 37th |
| UL Monroe | 13th | 14th |
| UNLV | 78th | 85th |
| USC | 94th | 90th |
| UT Martin | 2nd | 41st |
| UTEP | 3rd | 10th |
| UTSA | 67th | 92nd |
| Utah | 87th | 96th |
| Utah State | 31st | 49th |
| Vanderbilt | 90th | 100th |
| Virginia | 36th | 73rd |
| Virginia Tech | 59th | 21st |
| Wake Forest | 21st | 31st |
| Washington | 98th | 93rd |
| Washington State | 61st | 44th |
| West Virginia | 12th | 18th |
| Western Kentucky | 55th | 80th |
| Western Michigan | 86th | 16th |
| Wisconsin | 6th | 27th |
| Wyoming | 23rd | 15th |
Halftime identity
Houston by half
1st-half offense ranks 27th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 67th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
Schedule mirage
How much of Houston's number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.10; 54th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.03. The widest gap came in week 8: 0.10 raw vs. 0.03 adjusted.
Houston reads strongest in explosive plays allowed (top 23%) and passing epa (top 35%); the crux lives in rushing epa, where Houston sits at the 6th percentile.
offense · strengths lead
defense · higher bar = harder to play against
hidden math · special situations
ELITE · 90+STRONG · 70+AVERAGE · 40-70CONCERN · 10-40BOTTOM · <10
Most Similar Programs · Houston
Most Similar Programs · HoustonReads Like
AkronTier 3 · Prestige T3 · Similarly-sized rosters up frontApp StateTier 3 · Prestige T3 · Similarly-sized rosters up frontArizonaTier 3 · Prestige T3 · Similarly-sized rosters up front
Static-attribute similarity across tier, archetype, conference, and voice. Not a prediction — a calibration.
Home-Field Advantage · Houston · 2018-present
Average
55% home win rate vs 56% on the road. margin runs +1.7 better at home. TDECU Stadium seats 40,000, averaging 76% full (30,348 attendance, 25 games reported).
Home25-20Away25-19
Positional competition · RB room
The carries are split. The job isn’t.
Dean Connors and DJ Butler split the carries (209/275 vs 66/275) -- but the job isn't split the same way. DJ Butler produces in bigger chunks.
Dean ConnorsDJ Butler
Carries
the baseline -- every row below is tested against this split, not a flat 50/50
Q4, leading (competitive)
shared -- dots touch, this room really is a committee here
Targets
shared -- dots touch, this room really is a committee here
Top-5-carry share
concentration and EPA/carry agree -- a real boom/bust split
Screened 3 claims, 1 survived, 2 falsified
Positional competition · WR/TE room
The targets are split. The job isn’t.
Amare Thomas (WR) and Tanner Koziol (TE) split the targets (84/166 vs 82/166) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Amare Thomas produces in bigger chunks.
Amare ThomasTanner Koziol
Targets
the baseline -- every row below is tested against this split, not a flat 50/50
3rd-down targets
shared -- dots touch, this room really is a committee here
Top-5-catch share
concentration and EPA/target agree -- a real boom/bust split
Screened 2 claims, 1 survived, 1 falsified
What changed
Houston’s play-calling, before and after the change
Offense: Kevin Barbay (interim) (2024) → Slade Nagle (2025)
The biggest shift: 1st-down pass rate moved down 6 points. The rest held closer to steady.
1st-down pass rate
Red-zone pass rate
Defense: Shiel Wood (2024) → Austin Armstrong (2025)
The biggest shift: 1st-down pass rate moved down 6 points. The rest held closer to steady.
1st-down pass rate
Red-zone pass rate
Defensive identity · pass zones
What this defense gives up, by zone.
On short passes, Houston’s defense allows a completion rate below the FBS mean (61.4% vs 65.9% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 166-play sample) — mid-pack, 10 of 133 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball leaderboard here: at the defense level, most teams face well under 30 rich-feed deep targets all season — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess.
Screened 133 claims, 133 survived · 2025 only, in the 399 games with the detailed play-text feed; n=166 short-zone plays faced, raw rate 57.8%
Venue texture
77°F average kickoff temp; 11% of games had measurable precipitation; 8 mph average wind.
Based on 72 home games with weather data.
The CFP Era
12 seasons inside the CFP era, no bids yet — the era the program is still trying to break into.
TRAJECTORY · quality-score line · AP rank dotted · CFP bids marked · coach regimes ribboned
Program Quality
AP Rank (inverted)
CFP Appearance
Houston's 2014–2025 record is 89-58. The era is still being written; the CFP line is the one the program is arguing for.
All-Time Record
475-389-15
since 1946 · 80 seasons · .540 win rate
HOME
263-152-7
AWAY
189-218-7
NEUTRAL
23-19-1
1940s
1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
The program, in full — read the essay
Houston put up 95 points in a game, produced Andre Ware's 1989 Heisman — the first ever won by a Black quarterback — then spent thirty years on the wrong side of conference realignment while living in one of the country's richest talent beds. Willie Fritz just beat LSU in a bowl game. The wait is over.
The Southwest Conference collapse in 1996 left Houston — a program in the nation's fourth-largest city, with a Heisman Trophy and a Run-and-Shoot legacy that rewrote what offense could look like — on the wrong side of the invitation list while Texas and Texas A&M got the Big 12 seats. Two decades of mid-major exile followed. Case Keenum became the NCAA's all-time leader in passing yards and touchdowns; Tom Herman went 13-1 and beat Florida State in the 2015 Peach Bowl; the talent and the results were real. The power-conference door stayed closed anyway.
The Big 12 invite in 2023 changed the math. Willie Fritz's second season in 2025 delivered 10 wins — Houston's first 10-win year since 2021 — and a 38-35 bowl win over LSU, the program's sharpest piece of evidence yet that it belongs in the room where it spent three decades knocking. Fritz has reloaded through the portal, including ex-Tulane back Makhi Hughes, and Houston enters 2026 in early top-25 projections as a genuine Big 12 contender.
The 2026 question is the one the Big 12 invite was always supposed to answer: can Houston win a power-conference title? The Cougars have the recruiting footprint — Space City, one of America's deepest high school talent pools — the coach who has already delivered, and the chip of a program that knows exactly how long it waited for this platform. Andre Ware's Heisman trophy sits in Houston. The conference championship hasn't arrived yet.
How they play
Offense as identity, toughness as the new layer — from Yeoman's Veer to Pardee's Run-and-Shoot to Keenum's air raid, Houston's brand is points, and Fritz has added a physical, ball-control dimension that makes the Cougars harder to beat late. The current system runs an RPO-heavy spread with the running game as the foundation and play-action as the multiplier, built on portal-sourced depth that prioritizes experienced contributors over recruiting-rank upside. The Cougar Paw and 'Eat 'em up' carry a specific Houston energy: blue-collar in a big city, chip still intact even with the power-conference seat.
Steady
Houston 2016–2025. Holding the line. The 10-year slope (-0.10 rungs / yr) doesn't tilt either way — the program lives at roughly Tier 3.
CFP Era · Houston
12 seasons on file
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
down middle peak CFP year
Season Standing · 2025 · 10-3 · CFP #21 / AP #25
Season Standing · 2025 · 10-3 · CFP #21 / AP #25Ranked (25-16)
Houston: Ranked in the AP/Coaches polls, 16-25. National relevance achieved.
R0R1R2R3R4R5R6R7R8R9
Sub-FBSBuildingBowlRankedContenderPlayoff
Big 12 Standing · 2025
6th in the Big 12
Houston sits 6th of 16 in the Big 12 at 6-3. Mid-conference — moves up or down depend on rivalry results and the late-season closing run.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Texas Tech | 9-1 |
| 2 | BYU | 8-2 |
| 3 | Utah | 7-2 |
| 4 | Arizona | 7-3 |
| 5 | Arizona State | 6-3 |
| 6 | Houston | 6-3 |
| 7 | Cincinnati | 5-4 |
| 8 | Iowa State | 5-4 |
| 9 | TCU | 5-4 |
| 10 | Kansas State | 5-5 |
| 11 | Baylor | 3-6 |
| 12 | Kansas | 3-6 |
| 13 | UCF | 2-7 |
| 14 | West Virginia | 2-7 |
| 15 | Colorado | 1-8 |
| 16 | Oklahoma State | 0-9 |
Coaching Era · Houston
Coaching Era · HoustonWillie Fritz
Willie Fritz in year 2 of the rebuild. The methodology is taking shape.
Era Willie Fritz · 2025–presentPrev: Dana Holgorsen (2020–2024)OC: Slade NaglePrev OC: Kevin Barbay (interim) (2024)DC: Austin ArmstrongPrev DC: Shiel Wood (2024)
2
years · era
Rituals
Three gameday rituals — the ones outsiders never quite catch.
Cougar Paw
since 1953
The Cougar Paw — three middle fingers curled inward, thumb and pinky extended — is the Houston fan identity marker. The hand sign's origin: a 1953 incident where Cougar mascot Shasta's paw was bent in a Texas A&M elevator. The gesture became a defiance-symbol against the Aggies + identity marker through every Cougar era.
Case Keenum NCAA Record (2011)
since 2011
Case Keenum set the NCAA all-time passing yards record at Houston (19,217 yards across 4 seasons, 2007-2011) — a record that stood for years. The 2011 13-1 season + C-USA championship + Conference USA Bowl appearance is the Keenum-era peak. The 'Air Raid in Houston' identity stuck even after his departure.
Tom Herman 2015 Peach Bowl
since 2015
Tom Herman's 2015 13-1 + AAC championship + Peach Bowl win (over Florida State) — first year as head coach — turned Houston into a G5 ascent case study. The Peach Bowl win confirmed the AAC ceiling could rival P5. Herman's 2016 departure to Texas left the program building for years.
Program memory
What this program never forgets
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
1989
Ware wins the Heisman
Houston's first and only Heisman, the first by a Black quarterback
2015
Peach Bowl over Florida State
Tom Herman's 13-1 Cougars beat FSU 38-24 — the high-water mark of the mid-major era
2025
Big 12 breakthrough
A 10-win season in just their third year in the league, capped by a 38-35 bowl win over LSU
Moment of the Year · Houston · 2025
Moment of the Year · Houston · 2025Postseason · Won 38-35 vs LSU
Week 18 of 2025. Postseason win — the season-defining moment.
Bowl / Postseason Ledger
Bowl / Postseason LedgerRecent postseason (2014-2025): 5-4
Most recent: 2025 — win 38-35 (home). Last 5 postseason: 3-2.
20252022202120202018
NFL Draft Pipeline
2022–2026
NFL Draft PipelineSteady
9 picks last 5 cycles. Reliable mid-tier pipeline.
9
picks · 0 R1
#33
Logan Hall
Defensive End · 2022 · Tampa Bay · #27/370 final season
#55
Patrick Paul
Offensive Tackle · 2024 · Miami
#69
Nathaniel Dell
Wide Receiver · 2023 · Houston · #1/488 final season
#48 all-time · 15 first-round picksthe talent factory →
Unit lineage
Houston’s offense and defense, by coordinator
FBS-relative efficiency percentile per season (2014–2025), same population as the Coordinator Mirror board. Dashed vertical lines mark a coordinator change.
Offense2014–2025
2014 · Travis Bush2015–2016 · Major Applewhite2017 · Brian Johnson2018 · Kendal Briles2019 · co-Marquel Blackwell / co-Brandon Jones2020–2022 · Shannon Dawson / co-Brandon Jones2023 · Eman Naghavi2024 · Kevin Barbay (interim)2025 (ongoing) · Slade Nagle
Defense2014–2025
2014 · David Gibbs2015–2016 · Todd Orlando2017 · Mark D'Onofrio / co-Clay Jennings2018 · Mark D'Onofrio2019–2020 · Joe Cauthen / co-Doug Belk2021–2023 · Doug Belk2024 · Shiel Wood2025 (ongoing) · Austin Armstrong
Elite (≥70th pct)AveragePoor (≤30th pct)
Chronicle Visuals
A heavy-turnover 2025: 1% returning (below average), with the offense the biggest question.
The portal upgraded the DL room but opened a hole at EDGE.
1 player drafted in 2026; the reload runs through the portal and recruiting.
Houston sits where recruit talent and draft yield largely match.
Featured in The Canon
r/cfb moments
3.9k
[Postgame Thread] Houston Defeats LSU 38-35
1.6k
[Postgame Thread] SMU Defeats Houston 77-63
1.3k
[Postgame Thread] Houston Defeats Memphis 33-32
1.2k
[Postgame Thread] Rice Defeats Houston 43-41 (2OT)
785
[Postgame Thread] Houston Defeats SMU 44-37
All-time top community posts · ranked by upvotes
This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. AI-generated content is labeled and may contain factual errors. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site