Willie Fritz slid Houston from National Program I to National Program II in 3 seasons.
When you bring a guy in … you want to find a guy that fits your program
His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.
Reached National Program in his 2nd career season — faster than 33% of the 675 FBS coaches who have ever reached National Program (rank #402 of 675 by seasons-to-arrival).
Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.
Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
3–2 against his rivals. Just 1–5 against Ken Niumatalolo.
A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.
Model fit as of 2026-09-04.
Fan claims · every quote verified verbatim
He took over a powerhouse at Tulane. He maintained it but didn’t build it.
Based on 1 comment from 1 poster across 1 thread · Aug 4, 2026 · via Josh Pate's College Football Show
9th-best Houston tenure of 16 by the numbers.
Underperforms his recruiting talent on offense and performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on defense.
| Season | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record & result | ||||
| Record | 0–0 | 10–3 | 0–0 | |
| Postseason | — | W bowl | — | |
| Recruiting rank | #60 | #52 | #38 | |
| Style — pass rate | ||||
| Pass rate | 39.7 | 40.9 | 36.8 | |
| Coordinators | ||||
| OC | Kevin Barbay | Slade Nagle | Slade Nagle | |
| DC | Shiel Wood | Austin Armstrong | Austin Armstrong | |
| Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile | ||||
| Offense | 3 | 36 | 47 | |
| Defense | 72 | 40 | 16 | |
| Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only) | ||||
| 1st-down pass% | 41.0 | 35.1 | 36.2 | |
| Red-zone pass% | 33.8 | 35.2 | 29.2 | |
| 4th-down go%opp. territory | 42.9 | 40.4 | — | |
A portal-built roster.
Typical size for position, once adjusted for position mix.
A typical class-year mix of incoming transfers.
2 NFL Draft picks: Patrick Paul (2024), Tanner Koziol (2026)
1 player-season honored (All-America / national award): Shadre Hurst (2026)
8th-best Tulane tenure of 23 by the numbers.
Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.
Followed Curtis Johnson (2012–2015) · succeeded by Jon Sumrall (2024–2025).
| Season | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record & result | |||||||||
| Record | 4–8 | 5–7 | 7–6 | 7–6 | 6–6 | 2–10 | 12–2 | 0–1 | |
| Postseason | — | — | W bowl | W bowl | L bowl | — | W bowl | L bowl | |
| Recruiting rank | #97 | #112 | #68 | #94 | #66 | #77 | #74 | #71 | |
| Style — pass rate | |||||||||
| Pass rate | 30.4 | 29.5 | 33.3 | 35.4 | 37.8 | 45.7 | 40.5 | 41.1 | |
| Coordinators | |||||||||
| OC | Doug Ruse | Doug Ruse | Doug Ruse | Will Hall | Will Hall | Chip Long | Jim Svoboda | Slade Nagle | |
| DC | Jack Curtis | Jack Curtis | Jack Curtis | Jack Curtis | Jack Curtis | Chris Hampton | Chris Hampton | Shiel Wood | |
| Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile | |||||||||
| Offense | 12 | 61 | 33 | 76 | 59 | 47 | 97 | 47 | |
| Defense | 76 | 21 | 71 | 57 | 66 | 60 | 33 | 57 | |
| Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only) | |||||||||
| 1st-down pass% | 28.3 | 28.7 | 32.3 | 32.9 | 35.8 | 52.9 | 44.1 | 41.4 | |
| Red-zone pass% | 19.5 | 21.6 | 15.6 | 31.6 | 32.0 | 46.2 | 40.5 | 34.8 | |
| 4th-down go%opp. territory | 37.2 | 41.9 | 46.3 | 48.0 | 45.7 | 58.3 | 36.4 | 50.0 | |
Barely touches the portal — recruits and develops his own.
Brings in smaller-than-position-typical players than most.
Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.
12 NFL Draft picks: Tanzel Smart (2017), Parry Nickerson (2018), Ade Aruna (2018), Donnie Lewis Jr. (2019), Darnell Mooney (2020), Thakarius Keyes (2020), Cameron Sample (2021), Patrick Johnson (2021) + 4 more
Coach of the Year: AAC Coach of the Year (2022), AAC Coach of the Year (2023)
1st-best Georgia Southern tenure of 5 by the numbers.
Outperforms his recruiting talent on offense and performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on defense.
Succeeded by Tyson Summers (2016–2017).
| Season | 2014 | 2015 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Record & result | |||
| Record | 9–3 | 9–4 | |
| Postseason | — | W bowl | |
| Recruiting rank | #96 | #85 | |
| Style — pass rate | |||
| Pass rate | 19.4 | 15.8 | |
| Coordinators | |||
| OC | Doug Ruse | Doug Ruse | |
| DC | Jack Curtis | Jack Curtis | |
| Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile | |||
| Offense | 91 | 79 | |
| Defense | 43 | 52 | |
| Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only) | |||
| 1st-down pass% | 16.6 | 14.6 | |
| Red-zone pass% | 11.5 | 9.2 | |
| 4th-down go%opp. territory | 30.6 | 41.7 | |
3 NFL Draft picks: Jerick McKinnon (2014), Lavelle Westbrooks (2014), Antwione Williams (2016)