6-2, on track for 9-3 in the regular season.
Now
Career arc
Bowls and playoffs: 4-1
2018Cure BowlW 41-24
2019Armed Forces BowlW 30-13
2020Famous Idaho Potato BowlL 27-38
2022Cotton Bowl ClassicW 46-45
Houston
2025Texas BowlW 38-35
This week Wed Nov 4
- Last gameL 13-21 at Utah Sat Oct 24
- This season6-2
- On track for9-3 regular season
- Nextvs. Cincinnati Sat Nov 7
- Stature40th of 138 FBS programs
What the result changed
- AP poll #14 → #17 down three
- Playoff odds 19% → 8% CFB Zeitgeist forecast, before and after
Saturday: vs. Cincinnati
Sat Nov 7, 3:30 pm ET 
· Cincinnati is 5-3 · Fritz vs. Scott Satterfield: 1-1 (not counting 1 game in seasons either team changed coaches) · Houston’s chance to win: 84% (the site’s model)
Several stories this week →
The headlines, Oct 25–Nov 4 from a few outlets
Yahoo SportsHouston's First CFP Ranking Could Put Willie Fritz's Rebuild on a National StageTue Nov 3
Sports IllustratedWillie Fritz Reveals Positive Injury Updates For Houston After Bye WeekTue Nov 3- Sports IllustratedHouston Coach Willie Fritz Explained Late Offensive Struggles vs UtahThu Oct 29
- PaperCity MagazineWillie Fritz and Conner Weigman Can Make Houston Football History Without Any Big 12 Help — And Ted Pardee Thinks That Makes Fritz the Clear Coach of the YearMon Nov 2
The Cougar (Houston)Willie Fritz reflects on Utah loss, hope against CinncinatiMon Nov 2
On the podcasts
Offense: 1st of 138 per play. Defense: 88th.
4 games left
- Sat Nov 7vs. Cincinnati (5-3)84%
- Fri Nov 13at Colorado (3-5)
90% - Sat Nov 21at West Virginia (5-3)90%
- Sat Nov 28vs. Baylor (5-3)53%
Percent: Houston’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.
How the season got here
Where Houston stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).
- Oct 26–Nov 1No game3 headlines · 70th of 138Houston Coach Willie Fritz Explained Late Offensive Struggles vs Utah Sports Illustrated
- Oct 19–25L 13-21 at Utah4 headlines · 65th of 138Willie Fritz and Morgan Scalley Have Taken Different Paths to Houston vs. Utah Yahoo Sports
- Oct 12–18W 35-32 vs. Oklahoma State8 headlines · 39th of 138
- Oct 5–11W 35-16 at Kansas State7 headlines · 52nd of 138Willie Fritz Challenges Houston Fans Ahead of Oklahoma State Showdown
Heartland College Sports - Sep 28–Oct 4W 27-17 vs. UCF2 headlines · 75th of 138Houston tracking for commitments as flip targets, top 2027 and 2028 prospects buzz about Willie Fritz and the Coogs
On3 - Sep 21–27 · rebuiltW 42-28 at Georgia Southern8 headlines · 44th of 138Houston Coach Willie Fritz's Thoughts on His Return to Georgia Southern Sports Illustrated
Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.
Watch the biggest plays from Houston’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.
Hot seat
See every job →This season
Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.
Both of his finished seasons here ended Cool. Now right where 2025 was at this point.
His hot seat, week by week
The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.
Earlier seasons price the games left with power ratings rebuilt after those seasons ended.
What drives his number
The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.
- ▼ Cooler6-2, outscoring opponents by 120 · AP-ranked
- ▲ Hotter$10.4M buyout · 2.3× his pay, a multiple below average in FBS — cheap to move on
- ▲ HotterNational Program program, AP-ranked in the preseason · the bar going in
What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025
A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.
- Were 6-2 after 8 games
- 2% pushed out over results · of 389 coaches
- Were in years 3-4, after 8 games
- 13% pushed out over results · of 754 coaches
How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.
Fans
Fan chatter
- Oct 24L 13-21 at Utah
that is NOT willie fritz LOL
Houston fan - Oct 10W 35-16 at Kansas State
Is there a more complete game than this one played by UH since Fritz started? We are absolutely rolling
Houston fan - Oct 3W 27-17 vs. UCF
Fritz needs to take over defensive play calling YESTERDAU
Houston fan
Earlier weeks
- Sep 18L 26-28 at Texas Tech
Fritz’s conservative ass cannot handle 2nd & 18 bro
Houston fan - Sep 5W 33-20 vs. Oregon State
Fritz youre not young enough to get that heated in this weather
Houston fan
Several stories about him this week
Sat Nov 7: Cincinnati
67th of 104 FBS head coaches · from several outlets and r/CFB
Houston Coach Willie Fritz Explained Late Offensive Struggles vs Utah
Sports Illustrated Oct 29 · one outlet
Dozens of stories about him this season
from many outlets and r/CFB
Willie Fritz Has Given Houston Football Something Worth Protecting
Sports Illustrated +1 Oct 14 · a few outlets
All 2 articles
What they’re talking about
The headlines for each topic are on the News tab.
What was said at each stop
Stories we tracked, by school.
HoustonDozens of stories2024 to now
Most about: press conference and quotes, game preview, conference and schedule.
- Sports Illustrated +1This Houston Transfer Could Change Everything for Willie FritzJun 18
All 2 articles
- Sports Illustrated +1Houston Fall Camp Day 11: Key Updates and Quotes That Matter From Willie FritzAug 17
All 2 articles
- Sports Illustrated +1Willie Fritz Announces WR Stephon Johnson Has Returned to Houston CougarsAug 24
All 2 articles
- Before Big 12, Willie Fritz built powerhouse in BrenhamAug 30
- Sports Illustrated +1Houston Football Enters Game Week With Expectations Willie Fritz CreatedAug 31
All 2 articles
TulaneA few stories2016 to 2023
Most about: contract and pay.
- [Thamel] Tulane extends Head Coach Willie Fritz’ contract through the 2026 seasonSep 14
- Willie Fritz extended through 2030Jan 9
Georgia Southern2014 to 2015not trackedCould another school hire him? What has he said?
Across his career
72 stories about him across 13 seasons
Stories are headlines grouped by what they are about, counted through Nov 4.
Stats
Big games
Pick a job to see its years on their own.
The big-game ledger
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
2-2 against his rivals at Georgia Southern.
The big-game ledger
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
Winless in 3 tries against Sonny Dykes.
Signature games
These losses tie at the model's current max -- an editorial pick among a real tie, not a clean ranking.
Tags describe each game; they aren’t scores. The weighting that picks these games is still being tested.
The big-game ledger
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
1-0 against his rivals at Houston.
Signature games
Tags describe each game; they aren’t scores. The weighting that picks these games is still being tested.
The big-game ledger
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
3-2 against his rivals. Just 1-5 against Ken Niumatalolo.
Signature games
Tags describe each game; they aren’t scores. The weighting that picks these games is still being tested.
ATS is his record against the spread: did his team beat the closing betting line, winning by more than it or losing by less? Lines start in 2013; a dash means fewer than 6 of those games had one. One-score games carry no spread record: a big favorite that wins a close game has almost always failed to cover, so that number would say nothing about the coach.
How he plays
Run/pass mix, by field position
Ran more than the situation called for under Nagle.
929 run and pass snaps at Houston, 2025–2025, his own games, one row per offensive coordinator. Each cell is how much more often he passed than the rest of FBS did in the same situation (field zone, down, distance, score, quarter, same season), in percentage points.
Pass rate, stint by stint
Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next, against the FBS-wide average of 41% pass. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.
Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 449 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2004–2025.
Building the roster
Six numbers on how he actually stocks a roster, from signing day to draft day.
His recruiting, really
His 3 ranked Houston classes of his own have averaged #50 nationally — best #38, worst #60.
TulaneHoustonAcross every program: 9 ranked classes of his own, averaging #67 nationally.
His class — he had the full signing cycle
Rank is each signing class’s national recruiting rank (#1 is best). Only a class he had a full signing cycle to build counts as his.
Followed him here
Tulane→Houston2024- Corey Platt Jr. LB
- Kentrell Webb DB
Georgia Southern→Tulane2016Players who transferred from his old program to his new one through the portal in the same year he made the move. Name-matching across data sources misses some, so every count is a floor, not an exact number.
Roster ownership
Roster ownership
of his 2026 roster arrived on his watch — 109 of 119 players. The other 10 are holdovers from before he was hired.
Of his own players on this roster, 31% came through the transfer portal; the rest are non-portal arrivals (high-school signees, JUCO transfers, walk-ons).
36% of his 168 new players since 2024 came through the portal (FBS programs, same seasons: 29%). His share was 35% in 2024 and 31% in 2026.
Graded on the players who arrived and the players who left together, his portal seasons came out better than most FBS programs’ in 2 of the 3 seasons graded. our read
Each player counts once, in the season he arrived. 2021, the first season of portal tracking here, is left off because its arrival records look incomplete (about 31 new players per FBS team, against 52 in 2022). Portal grade: the site’s position-value-weighted scoring (the same engine as the Portal Heat feed and the “Who won the portal” grade): the value of the players who came in minus the value of the ones who left, ranked against every FBS program’s grade that same season. A season with fewer than 4 transfers in and out is not graded.
“His own” means the player arrived while he was head coach; “inherited” means a predecessor brought him in.
Size up front
Size up front
Offensive linemen on his Houston rosters have averaged within a few pounds of the FBS average (2024–2026). In the three seasons before he arrived, Houston’s line averaged within a few pounds of the FBS average.
Average listed weight of every offensive lineman on each season’s roster, holdovers included, against every FBS roster that season (2010 on; a program needs 3+ seasons under him to appear). Weights are the ones programs publish, and programs list differently. This describes size only — not scheme, and not quality.
Where he recruits
is his biggest recruiting state: 39 of 55 signees (71%) across his 2024–2026 tenure, drawn from 10 states in all. Next: LA (6).
84% of his signees come from TX and its 4 border states (LA 6, OK 1).
Off this map: 1 signee to the west (CA) and 1 to the east (GA).
- median hometown distance
- 174 mi
- within 100 mi
- 42%
- within 500 mi
- 76%
- beyond 1,000 mi
- 7%
The map counts signed recruits across his tenure; the distance figures cover his current roster, transfers and walk-ons included. Two different groups, kept separate on purpose.
The NFL pipeline
The NFL pipeline
players drafted into the NFL off his teams here. He brought in 1 of them himself.
| Year | Pick | Player | Pos | NFL team | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R5.24 | Tanner Koziol | Tight End |  Jacksonville Jaguars |
A pick counts toward his tenure when the player’s final college season was one he coached, a checkable rule rather than a claim about who developed the player. A blank note means the player is on a verified roster and arrived on his watch. “Estimated” means no roster record, so the final season is assumed to be the year before the draft.
News
Stories about him
Headlines, grouped by what they are about. Each is the outlet’s own.
This season
Press conference and quotes
- Sports Illustrated +1Houston Fall Camp Day 11: Key Updates and Quotes That Matter From Willie FritzAug 17
All 2 articles
- Sports Illustrated +1Willie Fritz Announces WR Stephon Johnson Has Returned to Houston CougarsAug 24
All 2 articles
- University of Houston AthleticsWillie Fritz Radio Show Moving to Kirby Ice HouseAug 6
- Kelvin Sampson and Willie Fritz joint interview with GoCoogsAug 17
247SportsEverything Houston head coach Willie Fritz said in press conference ahead of matchup with Oregon StateSep 1
Game preview
- Sports Illustrated +1Houston Football Enters Game Week With Expectations Willie Fritz CreatedAug 31
All 2 articles
Locked OnFritz, Houston control Oregon State Using star Runningbacks, new look Offensive LineSep 4- Locked OnHouston, Fritz face Marshall Faulk’s Southern Jaguars, a new look swac Football PowerSep 10
- Yahoo SportsHouston football news: Willie Fritz on what went wrong on failed 2-point conversion attempt vs. Texas TechSep 19
Houston ChronicleWillie Fritz implores UH fans to show up for home showdown vs. Oklahoma St.Oct 10
Profile and feature
- Sports Illustrated +1Houston Coach Willie Fritz's Thoughts on His Return to Georgia SouthernSep 25
All 2 articles
The Oklahoman +1Why Oklahoma State football coach Eric Morris has 'admiration' for Houston's Willie FritzOct 13- Houston ChronicleLong before UH days, Willie Fritz made Blinn College a power — and left a legacyAug 30
- Locked OnBounce back? Do Houston & Fritz Find success in Georgia Southern This Weekend?Sep 25
- PaperCity MagazineWillie Fritz and Conner Weigman Believe UH Can Push For a National Championship This Season — Why Is So Much Of Houston Still Sleeping On This TeamOct 15
Conference and schedule
- Before Big 12, Willie Fritz built powerhouse in BrenhamAug 30
- Houston ChronicleUH coach Willie Fritz quiet on potential addition as Big Ten bars former prosAug 25
- Locked OnBoom! Houston & Fritz ADD Key Playmakers Boogie Johnson & Myles Rowser to surging Cougars in Big 12Aug 25
- Houston ChronicleWillie Fritz is No. 1. UH coach ranked Texas' most handsome football coachSep 22
- PaperCity MagazineWillie Fritz and Conner Weigman Can Make Houston Football History Without Any Big 12 Help — And Ted Pardee Thinks That Makes Fritz the Clear Coach of the YearNov 2
Quarterback and depth chart
- Houston ChronicleWhen it comes to his QBs, UH coach Willie Fritz takes a hands-off approachAug 20
- [Helwick] Houston head coach Willie Fritz said QB Conner Weigman was “as sick as a dog” today. Weigman threw for 239 yards and rushed for 50 and 3 TD in the comeback winOct 4
- Locked OnWillie Fritz or Eric Morris: Which Coach Will dominate Houston vs Oklahoma State and big 12?Oct 9
- Locked OnOklahoma State's Eric Morris's & Houston's Willie Fritz Is New Era vs Old School Big 12 Battle!Oct 16
Injuries
- Sports IllustratedWillie Fritz Reveals Key Details on Houston Running Back John Hebert's InjuryOct 15
- Sports IllustratedWillie Fritz Reveals the Impact of Patrick Overmyer's Injury Against UtahOct 26
- Sports IllustratedWillie Fritz Reveals Positive Injury Updates For Houston After Bye WeekNov 3
In his own words
Every quote, back to July 2026
In his own words
I thought Conner got better as the game progressed
There’s a couple of plays we’d like to have back
I did kind of looked around a bit and saw it and that’s what we’ve been hoping for
We had to stay aggressive
There are a lot of similarities between their offense and our offense
I think he has improved as a blocker
We need to get as many Coogs out there as humanly possible
I’m sure Oklahoma State is gonna bring some people
It’s a business trip
We’re gonna have to play a really clean game you know, can’t make simple mistakes
I’m really proud of the effort our guys put forth tonight, I thought we played extremely hard
We need to have a bunch of guys that can be vertical threats
When you bring a guy in … you want to find a guy that fits your program
Career
Hires into jobs like this
Hired into programs rated 37 to 38 (National Program I tier). Rough match, not calibrated yet — ranked on what the job inherited alone. Coaches hired into this same job aren’t used as comps.
- Dana Holgorsen20194–8-2.0
- Tom Herman201513–1+7.3
- Tony Levine20125–7-1.7
- Kevin Sumlin20088–5+3.4
- Art Briles20037–6+0.3
- Dana Dimel20003–8-2.8
- Kim Helton19931–9-6.3
- John Jenkins199010–1+2.1
Coaching career
The arc of his career is on Now.
Builder meaningfully raised a program that wasn't one · Steady no large move in either direction on our stature ladder
9th-best Houston tenure of 16 by the numbers.
Followed Dana Holgorsen (2019–2024).
| Season | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record & result | ||||
| Record | 4-8 | 10-3 | 6-2 | |
| Postseason | — | W bowl | — | |
| Coordinators | ||||
| OC | Kevin Barbay | Slade Nagle | Slade Nagle | |
| DC | Shiel Wood | Austin Armstrong | Austin Armstrong | |
| Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile | ||||
| Offense | 3 | 36 | 95 | |
| Defense | 72 | 40 | 30 | |
| Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script | ||||
| 1st-down pass% | 41.0 | 35.1 | 40.7 | |
| Red-zone pass% | 33.8 | 35.2 | 33.9 | |
| 4th-down go%opp. territory | 42.9 | 40.4 | 43.5 | |
Underperforms his recruiting talent on offense and performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on defense.
Typical size for position, once adjusted for position mix.
A typical class-year mix of incoming transfers.
8th-best Tulane tenure of 23 by the numbers.
Followed Curtis Johnson (2012–2015) · succeeded by Jon Sumrall (2024–2025).
| Season | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record & result | |||||||||
| Record | 4-8 | 5-7 | 7-6 | 7-6 | 6-6 | 2-10 | 12-2 | 11-2 | |
| Postseason | — | — | W bowl | W bowl | L bowl | — | W bowl | — | |
| Coordinators | |||||||||
| OC | Doug Ruse | Doug Ruse | Doug Ruse | Will Hall | Will Hall | Chip Long | Jim Svoboda | Slade Nagle | |
| DC | Jack Curtis | Jack Curtis | Jack Curtis | Jack Curtis | Jack Curtis | Chris Hampton | Chris Hampton | Shiel Wood | |
| Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile | |||||||||
| Offense | 12 | 61 | 33 | 76 | 63 | 46 | 97 | 47 | |
| Defense | 76 | 21 | 71 | 57 | 56 | 64 | 33 | 57 | |
| Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script | |||||||||
| 1st-down pass% | 28.3 | 28.7 | 32.3 | 32.9 | 35.8 | 52.9 | 44.1 | 41.4 | |
| Red-zone pass% | 19.5 | 21.6 | 15.6 | 31.6 | 32.0 | 46.2 | 40.5 | 34.8 | |
| 4th-down go%opp. territory | 37.2 | 41.9 | 46.3 | 48.0 | 45.7 | 58.3 | 36.4 | 50.0 | |
Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.
Barely touches the portal — recruits and develops his own.
Brings in smaller-than-position-typical players than most.
Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.
12 NFL Draft picks: Tanzel Smart (2017), Parry Nickerson (2018), Ade Aruna (2018), Donnie Lewis Jr. (2019), Darnell Mooney (2020), Thakarius Keyes (2020), Cameron Sample (2021), Patrick Johnson (2021) + 4 more
Coach of the Year: AAC Coach of the Year (2022), AAC Coach of the Year (2023)
Succeeded by Tyson Summers (2016–2017).
| Season | 2014 | 2015 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Record & result | |||
| Record | 9-3 | 8-4 | |
| Postseason | — | — | |
| Coordinators | |||
| OC | Doug Ruse | Doug Ruse | |
| DC | Jack Curtis | Jack Curtis | |
| Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile | |||
| Offense | 91 | 79 | |
| Defense | 43 | 52 | |
| Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script | |||
| 1st-down pass% | 16.6 | 14.6 | |
| Red-zone pass% | 11.5 | 9.2 | |
| 4th-down go%opp. territory | 30.6 | 41.7 | |
Outperforms his recruiting talent on offense and performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on defense.
1 NFL Draft pick: Antwione Williams (2016)
All-time wins
Wins at programs this site tracks, 1936–present — one consistent count for every coach, not each program’s own historically reported total.
2nd-most wins by an American Athletic coach
Was he good?
The data leans positive, where the data can separate from zero: every conclusive reading points the same way.
+19.2 pts at Tulane · #77 of 1290 · top quarterModel fit as of 2026-09-04.