The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Sonny Dykes

Followed Gary Patterson. Sonny Dykes moved TCU from Power Program III to Power Program II in 5 seasons.

The journeyman
107–79
2010–now · 4 stints
← all coaches

In his own words

Nobody on the team can say they played their best, but we will learn from it and get better
Tcu360 · · the day after TCU's 2026 opener
I’ve seen Jaden practice and I know what it’s looked like. It didn’t really look like that today. I’m sure North Carolina had something to do with that…we just didn’t give ourselves a chance
Heartland College Sportsthe day of the 10–15 opener

Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Reached Power Program in his 12th career season — faster than 4% of the 395 FBS coaches who have ever reached Power Program (rank #374 of 395 by seasons-to-arrival).

Louisiana Tech, 3 seasons
+7.0
Regional Program IV → Regional Program II.
California, 4 seasons
−5.6
National Program II → National Program II.
SMU, 4 seasons
+9.4
Regional Program III → Regional Program I.
TCU, 5 seasons (active)
+2.7
Power Program II → Power Program II.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

50%60%California2013–2016▲ 5.1ptSMU2018–2021▼ 1.2ptTCU2022–2026▲ 1.2pt
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints
California5.1pt#227 of 258 · less than most
SMU5.3pt#224 of 258 · less than most
TCU10.9pt#110 of 258 · a typical amount

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

7–9 against his rivals. Winless in 4 tries against David Shaw.

Rivalry record
7–9
43.8% · 5 rivals
One-score games
40–32
55.6% · margin ≤8
vs. Blue Blood or better
0–1
0.0%
Rivalry ledger
Stanford0–40%
SMU3–175%
Baylor3–175%
TCU1–150%
The toughest matchup
vs. David Shaw0–4
4 meetings, 2013–2016
’13 L’14 L’15 L’16 L · blew a 7-pt lead
0% win rate across a real, 4-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.
Performance by opponent class
Dynasty
0–1 0.0%
Blue Blood
0–3 0.0%
Power Program
15–23 39.5%
National Program
35–33 51.5%
Regional Program
34–13 72.3%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact
+0.41
#38 of 319 · more than most
Defense marginal impact
-0.37
#309 of 325 · less than most

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

Coaching career

2022–now
TCUcaretaker🏆 coach of the year
Power Program III → Power Program II
Sonny Dykes moved TCU from Power Program III to Power Program II in 5 seasons.

4th-best TCU tenure of 13 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Outperforms his recruiting talent on offense and performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent
+16.6 pts
#47 of 208 · more than most
Defense vs. talent
-11.7 pts
#153 of 208 · a typical amount
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Gary Patterson (2000–2021).

Season20222023202420252026Trend
Record & result
Record13–25–79–49–40–0
PostseasonTitle game LW bowlW bowl
Recruiting rank#45#21#34#24#47
Style — pass rate
Pass rate44.555.355.551.545.7
Coordinators
OCA. J. Ricker / Garrett RileyA. J. Ricker / Kendal BrilesA. J. Ricker / Kendal BrilesA. J. Ricker / Kendal BrilesA. J. Ricker / Gordon Sammis
DCJoe GillespieJoe GillespieAndy AvalosAndy AvalosAndy Avalos
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense8665846912
Defense3540545850
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%39.957.157.050.149.1
Red-zone pass%30.951.451.141.534.8
4th-down go%opp. territory37.348.843.547.5
Roster construction · portal era

A typical amount of portal roster-building.

Portal arrivals
73
3.1★ avg rating
Portal departures
87
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-14
#78 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in

Typical size for position, once adjusted for position mix.

Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.

Avg. size (raw)
6′2″, 245 lbs
across 61 of 73 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+4.1 lbs
#117 of 255 · a typical amount
Avg. class year
Sr
#15 of 255 · more than most
Top states: TX (31), LA (8), FL (3), MD (2), IN (2)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
59.0
position-weighted
Talent lost
61.8
position-weighted
Net
-2.8
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Ken Seals (QB) from Vanderbilt
Biggest loss: Josh Hoover (QB) to Indiana
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: co-A. J. Ricker / Garrett Riley → co-A. J. Ricker / Kendal Briles · 2023
86th pct65th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 39.9% → 57.1% (+17.2 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 14% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: co-A. J. Ricker / Kendal Briles → co-A. J. Ricker / Gordon Sammis · 2026
69th pct12th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 50.1% → 49.1% (-1.1 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 22% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
DC: Joe Gillespie → Andy Avalos · 2024the system held
38th pct56th pct0th100th
2-season window either side.
Roster size, by position
Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)
Quarterback
203 lbs
6′2″ avg · #650 of 767 · less than most
Running back
204 lbs
5′11″ avg · #529 of 791 · a typical amount
Wide receiver
200 lbs
6′1″ avg · #107 of 791 · more than most
Tight end
249 lbs
6′5″ avg · #225 of 731 · a typical amount
Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters
Interior line
313 lbs
6′5″ avg · #243 of 779 · a typical amount
D-line
296 lbs
6′3″ avg · #152 of 753 · more than most
Edge
246 lbs
6′4″ avg · #148 of 188 · less than most
Linebacker
224 lbs
6′2″ avg · #590 of 772 · less than most
Cornerback
190 lbs
6′1″ avg · #412 of 771 · a typical amount
Safety
193 lbs
6′1″ avg · #255 of 346 · a typical amount
Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Edge from high school
73%
#160 of 208 stints
Postseason detail2022: Beat Michigan 51–45 CFP Semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl2022: Lost to Georgia 7–65 CFP National Championship pres. by AT&T2024: Beat Louisiana 34–3 Isleta New Mexico Bowl2025: Beat USC 30–27 Valero Alamo Bowl

16 NFL Draft picks: Quentin Johnston (2023), Steve Avila (2023), Kendre Miller (2023), Dylan Horton (2023), Derius Davis (2023), Tre'Vius Hodges-Tomlinson (2023), Dee Winters (2023), Max Duggan (2023) + 8 more

Coach of the Year: Big 12 Chuck Neinas Coach of the Year (2022)

2 player-seasons honored (All-America / national award): Tre Tomlinson (2022), Steve Avila (2022)

36–17
2018–2021
SMUcaretaker
Regional Program III → Regional Program I
Sonny Dykes moved SMU from Regional Program III to Regional Program I in 4 seasons.

12th-best SMU tenure of 18 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on offense and underperforms his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent
+12.7 pts
#58 of 208 · a typical amount
Defense vs. talent
-17.2 pts
#167 of 208 · less than most
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Chad Morris (2015–2017) · succeeded by Rhett Lashlee (2022–2026).

Season2018201920202021Trend
Record & result
Record5–710–37–30–0
PostseasonL bowl
Recruiting rank#87#68#81#53
Style — pass rate
Pass rate53.848.550.052.6
Coordinators
OCRhett LashleeRhett LashleeA. J. Ricker / Garrett RileyA. J. Ricker / Garrett Riley
DCKevin KaneKevin KaneKevin KaneJim Leavitt
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense22738177
Defense45432520
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%47.643.944.048.3
Red-zone pass%48.645.449.139.3
4th-down go%opp. territory45.247.133.337.1
Roster construction · portal era

A typical amount of portal roster-building.

Portal arrivals
14
3.2★ avg rating
Portal departures
9
left via the portal
Net portal flow
+5
#82 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in

Typical size for position, once adjusted for position mix.

Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.

Avg. size (raw)
6′3″, 239 lbs
across 9 of 14 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+4.1 lbs
#119 of 255 · a typical amount
Avg. class year
Sr
#7 of 255 · more than most
Top states: TX (7), CA (1), HI (1)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
38.9
position-weighted
Talent lost
33.3
position-weighted
Net
+5.6
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Jahari Rogers (CB) from Florida
Biggest loss: Carson Welch (QB) to the portal
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Roster size, by position
Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)
Quarterback
212 lbs
6′2″ avg · #402 of 767 · a typical amount
Running back
204 lbs
5′11″ avg · #533 of 791 · a typical amount
Wide receiver
196 lbs
6′1″ avg · #268 of 791 · a typical amount
Tight end
243 lbs
6′5″ avg · #463 of 731 · a typical amount
Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters
Interior line
303 lbs
6′5″ avg · #613 of 779 · less than most
D-line
284 lbs
6′2″ avg · #376 of 753 · a typical amount
Edge
231 lbs
6′3″ avg · #186 of 188 · less than most
Linebacker
222 lbs
6′1″ avg · #669 of 772 · less than most
Cornerback
183 lbs
5′11″ avg · #685 of 771 · less than most
Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Buys Tight end via the portal
75%
#16 of 188 stints
Buys ATH via the portal
14%
#32 of 146 stints
Grows Running back from high school
80%
#181 of 208 stints
Grows Linebacker from high school
83%
#183 of 225 stints
Postseason detail2019: Lost to Florida Atlantic 28–52 Cheribundi Boca Raton Bowl

8 NFL Draft picks: Courtland Sutton (2018), Justin Lawler (2018), Trey Quinn (2018), James Proche (2020), Brandon Stephens (2021), Kylen Granson (2021), Danny Gray (2022), Grant Calcaterra (2022)

30–17
2013–2016
Californiacaretaker
National Program I → National Program II
Sonny Dykes slid California from National Program I to National Program II in 4 seasons.

10th-best California tenure of 19 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Outperforms his recruiting talent on offense and underperforms his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent
+23.8 pts
#25 of 208 · more than most
Defense vs. talent
-44.4 pts
#208 of 208 · less than most
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Jeff Tedford (2002–2012) · succeeded by Justin Wilcox (2017–2025).

Season2013201420152016Trend
Record & result
Record1–115–78–55–7
PostseasonW bowl
Recruiting rank#55#34#31
Style — pass rate
Pass rate54.955.660.0
Coordinators
OCTony FranklinTony FranklinJake Spavital
DCArt KaufmanArt KaufmanArt Kaufman
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense729463
Defense12174
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%47.953.857.1
Red-zone pass%47.755.652.0
4th-down go%opp. territory36.645.035.4
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Tony Franklin → Jake Spavital · 2016
94th pct63rd pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 53.8% → 57.1% (+3.3 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 15% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Edge from high school
100%
#191 of 208 stints
Grows Running back from high school
100%
#196 of 208 stints
Postseason detail2015: Beat Air Force 55–36 Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl

13 NFL Draft picks: Keenan Allen (2013), Brian Schwenke (2013), Steve Williams (2013), Marc Anthony (2013), Richard Rodgers (2014), Khairi Fortt (2014), Jared Goff (2016), Trevor Davis (2016) + 5 more

19–30
2010–2012
Louisiana Techcaretaker
Regional Program IV → Regional Program II
Sonny Dykes moved Louisiana Tech from Regional Program IV to Regional Program II in 3 seasons.

8th-best Louisiana Tech tenure of 11 by the numbers.

Followed Derek Dooley (2007–2009) · succeeded by Skip Holtz (2013–2021).

Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Running back from high school
100%
#196 of 208 stints
Grows Interior line from high school
100%
#198 of 224 stints

4 NFL Draft picks: D'Anthony Smith (2010), Dennis Morris (2010), Quinton Patton (2013), Jordan Mills (2013)

22–15

Defining games during this era

2022 NCG · Georgia 65, TCU 72022 Fiesta Bowl semifinal · TCU 51, Michigan 45