Sonny Dykes

Head coach · TCU
5th season · since 2022 · SMU before

At TCU40-21since 2022 · 4-4 this seasonHot seatCool6% · 49th of 132 jobsLast gameW 22-16vs Kansas · Oct 31Nextat ArizonaFri Nov 6 · 10:15 pm ET · ESPN
This week · as of Wed Nov 4

4-4, on track for 5-7 in the regular season.

Now

Career arc

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerFBS medianLouisiana TechCaliforniaSMUTCUSouthern MissSouthern MissStanfordStanfordTCUTCUBaylorBaylorBlue Bloodpermanent top tierPower Programperennial contenderNational Programrespectable, streakyRegional Programthe building-block levelLouisiana Tech when he took over: 14.8 (Regional Program IV), its final 2009 readingLouisiana Tech, 2010: 5-7, Regional Program IVLouisiana Tech, 2010: 5-7, Regional Program IV2010Louisiana Tech, 2011: 8-5, Regional Program IIILouisiana Tech, 2012: 9-3, Regional Program IILouisiana Tech, 2012: 9-3, Regional Program II2012+7.0California when he took over: 38.4 (National Program I), its final 2012 readingCalifornia, 2013: 1-11, National Program IICalifornia, 2013: 1-11, National Program II2013California, 2014: 5-7, National Program IICalifornia, 2015: 8-5, National Program IICalifornia, 2016: 5-7, National Program IICalifornia, 2016: 5-7, National Program II2016-5.6SMU when he took over: 17.2 (Regional Program III), its final 2017 readingSMU, 2018: 5-7, Regional Program IIISMU, 2018: 5-7, Regional Program III2018SMU, 2019: 10-3, Regional Program IISMU, 2020: 7-3, Regional Program ISMU, 2021: 8-4, Regional Program ISMU, 2021: 8-4, Regional Program I2021+9.4TCU when he took over: 46.7 (Power Program III), its final 2021 readingTCU, 2022: 13-2, Power Program IITCU, 2022: 13-2, Power Program II2022TCU, 2023: 5-7, Power Program IITCU, 2024: 9-4, Power Program IITCU, 2025: 9-4, Power Program IITCU, 2026: 4-4, Power Program IITCU, 2026: 4-4, Power Program II2026+2.7best: 2022gray dashed: rival programs · ○ the program when he took over · Dashed segments are program changes — spacing is not proportional to calendar time

Bowls and playoffs: 4-4 · won 0 of 1 national title game

Louisiana Tech2011Poinsettia BowlL 24-31California2015Armed Forces BowlW 55-36SMU2017Frisco BowlL 10-512019Boca Raton BowlL 28-52TCU2022 semiFiesta BowlW 51-452022CFP title gameL 7-652024New Mexico BowlW 34-32025Alamo BowlW 30-27

This week Wed Nov 4

  • Last gameW 22-16 vs. Kansas Sat Oct 31
  • This season4-4
  • Hot seat6% 49th of 132
  • On track for5-7 regular season
  • Nextat Arizona Fri Nov 6
  • Stature26th of 138 FBS programs

What the result changed

  • Playoff odds 0.2% → 0.1% CFB Zeitgeist forecast, before and after

Win and he’s at 4%. Lose and he’s at 7%.

at Arizona, Fri Nov 6, 10:15 pm ET ESPN · No. 24 Arizona is 6-2 · Dykes vs. Brent Brennan: 1-0 · TCU’s chance to win: 26% (the site’s model)

CoolWarmHotBoilingIf TCU wins: 4%, 64th of 132Now: 6%If TCU loses: 7%, 45th of 1320%50%+
CoolWarmHotBoiling0%50%+
  • If TCU wins: 4%, 64th of 132
  • Now: 6%
  • If TCU loses: 7%, 45th of 132
His chance of being out after the season, now and after Saturday. Each tick is an FBS head coach’s number today; ranks are against today’s field. From the site’s hot-seat model.

Is he getting fired?

6% chance he’s out after the season · 49th of 132 FBS head coaches · Cool

Coolunder 10%Warm10–20%Hot20–35%Boiling35% upNow10% had they lost10% had they lostLoss 7%Win 4%3%0%6%4%7%8%4%8%6%Pre1L vs. North CarolinaL2W vs. GramblingW3W vs. Arkansas StateW4L at UCFL5L vs. BYUL6W at BaylorW7L vs. West VirginiaL8W vs. KansasW9Chance to win at Arizona26%10Chance to win vs. Kansas State68%11Chance to win vs. Utah28%12Chance to win at Texas Tech23%Game number. Under each game: the result, or his team’s chance to win it
CoolWarmHotBoilingNow10% had they lost10% had they lostLoss 7%Win 4%3%6%Pre368912Game
Dark line: his number after each game; a small dot just before a game is where it stood at kickoff, after other results moved it. Gray: where it could go, 8 seasons in 10 (darker, the middle half). The hollow dot: had his last game gone the other way. From the site’s hot-seat model.

If he finishes…

Bar: how likely that finish isNumber: his chance of being out

  1. 4-812%
  2. 5-76%
  3. 6-63%
  4. 7-52%
  5. 8-41%
Why his number is where it is

Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.

One national title game here, lost in 2022 — in 2022–2025, when every season ended Cool. Now right where 2025 was at this point.

His hot seat, week by week

The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.

BoilingHotWarmCool202220232024202520262022, week 4 (3 games in): 1%, 114th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 5 (4 games in): <1%, 116th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 6 (5 games in): <1%, 115th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 7 (6 games in): <1%, 119th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 8 (7 games in): <1%, 121st-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 9 (8 games in): <1%, 122nd-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 10 (9 games in): <1%, 125th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 11 (10 games in): <1%, 125th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 12 (11 games in): <1%, 127th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 13 (12 games in): <1%, 127th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 14 (12 games in): <1%, 127th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 15 (12 games in): <1%, 127th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2023, week 3 (3 games in): 2%, 93rd-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2023, week 4 (4 games in): 1%, 100th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 5 (5 games in): 2%, 88th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 6 (6 games in): 2%, 84th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 7 (7 games in): 2%, 86th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 8 (8 games in): 2%, 81st-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 9 (8 games in): 2%, 84th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 10 (9 games in): 3%, 78th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 11 (10 games in): 3%, 69th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 12 (11 games in): 3%, 73rd-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 13 (12 games in): 2%, 68th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 14 (12 games in): 2%, 68th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 15 (12 games in): 2%, 68th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2024, week 3 (3 games in): 2%, 69th-hottest of 111 FBS jobs2024, week 4 (4 games in): 2%, 85th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 5 (5 games in): 2%, 85th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 6 (6 games in): 3%, 77th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 7 (6 games in): 3%, 75th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 8 (7 games in): 2%, 82nd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 9 (8 games in): 1%, 93rd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 10 (9 games in): 1%, 88th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 11 (10 games in): 1%, 94th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 12 (10 games in): 1%, 92nd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 13 (11 games in): 1%, 94th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 14 (12 games in): 1%, 94th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 15 (12 games in): 1%, 93rd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 16 (12 games in): 1%, 93rd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2025, week 4 (3 games in): 2%, 81st-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 5 (4 games in): 3%, 77th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 6 (5 games in): 2%, 77th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 7 (6 games in): 3%, 74th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 8 (7 games in): 2%, 80th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 9 (8 games in): 2%, 88th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 10 (8 games in): 2%, 85th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 11 (9 games in): 2%, 74th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 12 (10 games in): 3%, 68th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 13 (11 games in): 2%, 75th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 14 (12 games in): 1%, 78th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 15 (12 games in): 1%, 78th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 16 (12 games in): 1%, 78th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2026, week 3 (3 games in): 4%, 65th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2026, week 4 (4 games in): 7%, 56th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 5 (5 games in): 8%, 50th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 6 (5 games in): 8%, 47th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 7 (6 games in): 4%, 72nd-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 8 (7 games in): 8%, 52nd-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 9 (8 games in): 6%, 54th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 10 (8 games in): 6%, 49th-hottest of 132 FBS jobsnow

Earlier seasons price the games left with power ratings rebuilt after those seasons ended.

What drives his number

The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.

  • ▲ Hotter
    Year 5 · tenure, which this model overrates
    (why?)

    Tenure is one of this model’s strongest inputs, but its weight was set when retirements like Nick Saban’s and Bob Stoops’ still counted as being pushed out, so it overstates how much tenure matters.

  • ▼ Cooler
    $26.4M buyout (imputed from pay) · 3.8× his pay, a multiple above average in FBS — costly to move on
  • ▼ Cooler
    18-8 over his previous two seasons here

What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025

A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.

Were 4-4 after 8 games
8% pushed out over results · of 504 coaches
Were in years 5-9, after 8 games
14% pushed out over results · of 700 coaches
The outcome
Pushed out over results — a firing, forced resignation, mutual parting or non-renewal, each read case by case. Leaving for a better job, or retiring on his own terms, doesn’t count.
Buyout
$26,396,475 imputed from total pay — not a reported figure · 3.8× total pay · a large buyout, which lowers his chance of being let go · without it: 9%

How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.

Many stories this week →

The headlines, Nov 1–4 from several outlets

On the podcasts

Fans are frustrated with TCU

Arizona Daily Star: Arizona looks to learn from rushing woes against Texas Tech Arizona looks to learn from rushing woes against Texas Tech&#8203; Justin Spears You don’t ever want to be in the same conversation as the 2024 “Space Game” in Orlando. Not unless you’re UCF. The Arizona Wildcats accomplished something that hadn’t been done since they were blown out by UCF, 56-12... Read more

SB Nation: What Brent Brennan said at his press conference to open TCU week SB Nation: What Brent Brennan said at his press conference to open TCU week Juan Serrano Arizona (6-2, 3-2 Big 12) is coming off its second loss of the season to Texas Tech. The 34-26 heartbreaker to the Red... Read more

I was at the TCU game.  It was maybe half capacity at the start.  It was maybe 20 percent capacity after halftime.  I get it.  Students have to pregame from Halloween parties and parents have to get ready to take kids trick or treating.  Only fools like me stayed for the whole game.

Fan mood · last 3 weeks · more negative than 3 in 4 FBS fan bases

Offense: 102nd of 138 per play. Defense: 10th.

Offense, per play102ndRunning offense132ndDefense, per play10thDefense, knocking offenses off schedule6thWorstBest
Offense, per play102nd of 138Running offense132nd of 138Defense, per play10th of 138Defense, knocking offenses off schedule6th of 138WorstBest
Through 8 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is TCU. The other two rows are where TCU stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

4 games left

  1. Fri Nov 6at Arizona (6-2)ESPN26%
  2. Sat Nov 14vs. Kansas State (4-4)68%
  3. Sat Nov 21vs. Utah (8-0)28%
  4. Thu Nov 26at Texas Tech (7-1)ESPN23%

Percent: TCU’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Where TCU stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).

18th24th30thPreseason23rdNorth Carolina L 10-15North Carolina L 10-15L 10-15North Carolina22ndGrambling W 63-7Grambling W 63-7W 63-7Grambling23rdArkansas State W 31-7Arkansas State W 31-7W 31-7Arkansas State23rdUCF L 13-21UCF L 13-21L 13-21UCF24thBYU L 10-17BYU L 10-17L 10-17BYU24thBaylor W 17-6Baylor W 17-6W 17-6Baylor25thWest Virginia L 20-24West Virginia L 20-24L 20-24West Virginia24thKansas W 22-16Kansas W 22-16W 22-16Kansas25th
  1. Oct 26–Nov 1W 22-16 vs. Kansas6 headlines · 62nd of 138Sonny Dykes, Jaden Craig Bailed Out By TCU Defense and Kansas Backup QB CBS19
  2. Oct 19–25L 20-24 vs. West Virginia6 headlines · 57th of 138TCU Head Coach Sonny Dykes Talks About Losing to WVU Sports Illustrated
  3. Oct 12–18W 17-6 at Baylor4 headlines · 55th of 138Behind Enemy Lines: TCU’s Offense Keeps Sputtering as Pressure Mounts on Sonny Dykes SicEm365
  4. Oct 5–11No game1 headline · 83rd of 138Sonny Dykes Has To Be On The Hot Seat After TCU Football's Embarrassing Start To The Season KGW
  5. Sep 28–Oct 4L 10-17 vs. BYU8 headlines · 52nd of 138How has TCU football fared as a home underdog under coach Sonny Dykes? Fort Worth Star-Telegram
  6. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltL 13-21 at UCF3 headlines · 68th of 138TCU Coach Sonny Dykes Shares High Praise for Duke Watson Yahoo Sports

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from TCU’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.

Report card

Offense carries it: 80th percentile offense, above the median defense at 67th.

TCU, every completed season graded against the whole field, then averaged.

Offense

A
of which —80th
efficiency — 80th percentile success rate, 2022–25
A80th
Standard-downs success
B+75th
Passing-downs success
B-56th
Trench push (line yards)
C+48th
Red-zone scoring rate
B+71st
Power-success (short yardage)
C-38th
Ball security (giveaways per game)

Defense

B
of which —67th
67th percentile SP+ defense, 2022–25
B62nd
Front-7 havoc
B+72nd
Secondary havoc
C44th
Stuff rate (run defense)
C43rd
Takeaways per game

Each season is his team’s percentile among every team with that stat (the share it beat), averaged over his completed seasons here; a mid-season takeover year and the season in progress aren’t graded. Letters: A+ 90th percentile and up, A 80, B+ 70, B 60, B− 50, C+ 45, C 40, C− 30, D 15, F below.