The Zeitgeist List · coaching

David Shaw

Followed Jim Harbaugh. David Shaw raised Stanford from Power Program III to Power Program I.

96–54
2011–2022 · 1 stint
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Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Reached Power Program in his 1st career season — faster than 57% of the 395 FBS coaches who have ever reached Power Program (rank #1 of 395 by seasons-to-arrival).

Stanford, 12 seasons
+15.5
Power Program III → National Program I.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

40%50%Stanford2011–2022▲ 10.0pt
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints
Stanford21.7pt#6 of 258 · more than most

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

15–7 against his rivals. Just 1–5 against Kyle Whittingham.

Rivalry record
15–7
68.2% · 2 rivals
One-score games
30–21
58.8% · margin ≤8
vs. Blue Blood or better
4–1
80.0%
Rivalry ledger
California9–375%
Notre Dame6–460%
The toughest matchupNemesis
6 meetings, 2013–2022
’13 L’14 L’17 W · erased a 4-pt deficit’18 L’21 L’22 L · blew a 7-pt lead
Performance by opponent class
Blue Blood
4–1 80.0%
Power Program
23–27 46.0%
National Program
38–16 70.4%
Regional Program
20–6 76.9%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact
+0.08
#116 of 319 · a typical amount
Defense marginal impact
-0.32
#299 of 325 · less than most

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

Coaching career

2011–2022
Stanfordbuilder
Power Program III → Power Program I
David Shaw raised Stanford from Power Program III to Power Program I.

1st-best Stanford tenure of 20 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on offense and underperforms his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent
-3.3 pts
#125 of 208 · a typical amount
Defense vs. talent
-32.1 pts
#200 of 208 · less than most
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Jim Harbaugh (2007–2010) · succeeded by Troy Taylor (2023–2024).

Season201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022Trend
Record & result
Record11–212–211–38–512–210–39–59–44–84–23–93–9
PostseasonW bowlW bowlW CFPL bowlW CFP
Recruiting rank#13#24#16#14#40#21#21#51#19
Style — pass rate
Pass rate44.434.336.843.152.455.953.153.454.4
Coordinators
OCMike BloomgrenMike BloomgrenMike BloomgrenMike BloomgrenTavita PritchardTavita PritchardTavita PritchardTavita PritchardTavita Pritchard
DCLance AndersonLance AndersonLance AndersonLance AndersonLance AndersonLance AndersonLance AndersonLance AndersonLance Anderson
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense719356807048871520
Defense9538642748247716
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%37.328.233.432.348.050.645.953.851.2
Red-zone pass%43.630.130.943.142.946.637.948.246.8
4th-down go%opp. territory22.229.714.022.722.97.916.728.622.2
Roster construction · portal era

Barely touches the portal — recruits and develops his own.

Portal arrivals
2
3.5★ avg rating
Portal departures
12
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-10
#183 of 187 FBS stints
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
9.2
position-weighted
Talent lost
28.9
position-weighted
Net
-19.7
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Joshua Pakola (EDGE) from Stanford
Biggest loss: Joshua Pakola (EDGE) to Stanford
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Mike Bloomgren → Tavita Pritchard · 2018the system held
68th pct59th pct0th100th
2-season window either side.
1st-down pass rate: 32.9% → 49.3% (+16.4 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 87% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
Roster size, by position
Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)
Quarterback
222 lbs
6′5″ avg · #121 of 767 · more than most
Running back
207 lbs
5′11″ avg · #399 of 791 · a typical amount
Wide receiver
212 lbs
6′3″ avg · #4 of 791 · more than most
Tight end
252 lbs
6′4″ avg · #145 of 731 · more than most
Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters
Interior line
308 lbs
6′5″ avg · #410 of 779 · a typical amount
D-line
276 lbs
6′4″ avg · #548 of 753 · a typical amount
Linebacker
237 lbs
6′2″ avg · #72 of 772 · more than most
Cornerback
194 lbs
6′0″ avg · #187 of 771 · more than most
Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows P from high school
100%
#29 of 29 stints
Grows Tight end from high school
100%
#164 of 188 stints
Postseason detail2014: Beat Maryland 45–21 Foster Farms Bowl2015: Beat Iowa 45–16 Rose Bowl Game Pres. By Northwestern Mutual2016: Beat North Carolina 25–23 CFP2017: Lost to TCU 37–39 Valero Alamo Bowl2018: Beat Pittsburgh 14–13 CFP

52 NFL Draft picks: Sione Fua (2011), Owen Marecic (2011), Richard Sherman (2011), Ryan Whalen (2011), Andrew Luck (2012), David DeCastro (2012), Coby Fleener (2012), Jonathan Martin (2012) + 44 more

1 player-season honored (All-America / national award): Joshua Karty (2022)

96–54

Defining games during this era

2017 Pac-12 Championship · USC 31, Stanford 28