This week · as of Wed Nov 4

5-3, on track for 7-5 in the regular season.

Now

Career arc

Bowls and playoffs: 10-6

Utah’05W’06W’07W’08W’09W’10L’11W’14W’15W’16W’17W’18L’19L’21L’22L’23L

Show all 16 games
Utah2005Emerald BowlW 38-102006Armed Forces BowlW 25-132007Poinsettia BowlW 35-322008Sugar BowlW 31-172009Poinsettia BowlW 37-272010Maaco Bowl Las VegasL 3-262011Sun BowlW 30-272014Las Vegas BowlW 45-102015Las Vegas BowlW 35-282016Foster Farms BowlW 26-242017Heart of Dallas BowlW 30-142018Holiday BowlL 20-312019Alamo BowlL 10-382021Rose BowlL 45-482022Rose BowlL 21-352023Las Vegas BowlL 7-14

This week Wed Nov 4

  • Last gameW 28-21 at Rutgers Sat Oct 31
  • This season5-3
  • On track for7-5 regular season
  • Nextvs. Michigan State Sat Nov 7
  • Stature5th of 138 FBS programs

What the result changed

  • Playoff odds 1% → 3% CFB Zeitgeist forecast, before and after

Saturday: vs. Michigan State

Sat Nov 7, 7:30 pm ET Peacock · Michigan State is 2-6 · Whittingham vs. Pat Fitzgerald: 0-1 · Michigan’s chance to win: 87% (the site’s model)

His week

Dozens of stories this week →

The headlines, Nov 1–4 from many outlets

On the podcasts

Offense: 119th of 138 per play. Defense: 12th.

Offense, per play119thOffense, points per trip inside the 40134thDefense, per play12thPass defense6thWorstBest
Offense, per play119th of 138Offense, points per trip inside the 40134th of 138Defense, per play12th of 138Pass defense6th of 138WorstBest
Through 8 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is Michigan. The other two rows are where Michigan stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

4 games left

  1. Sat Nov 7vs. Michigan State (2-6)Peacock87%
  2. Sat Nov 14at Oregon (5-3)31%
  3. Sat Nov 21vs. UCLA (8-0)35%
  4. Sat Nov 28at Ohio State (6-2)FOX17%

Percent: Michigan’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Michigan has held at 5th of 138 FBS programs by stature after every game this season.

  1. Oct 26–Nov 1W 28-21 at Rutgers59 headlines · 5th of 138Kyle Whittingham’s Michigan Escapes as Outrage Erupts Over Controversial Officiating Call Yahoo Sports
  2. Oct 19–25L 6-13 vs. Indiana29 headlines · 14th of 138Kyle Whittingham critical of blown-up Michigan goal-line play: 'Not a good football call' USA Today“Damaging Call”Kyle Whittingham Assesses Jason Beck's Job as Michigan's OC, Oct 24
  3. Oct 12–18W 21-18 vs. Penn State33 headlines · 9th of 138Kyle Whittingham Answers Question About Who Is Michigan’s QB Moving Forward Yahoo Sports“Not ready to make a decision”Kyle Whittingham on if benching Bryce Underwood for Tommy Carr is permanent, Oct 17
  4. Oct 5–11No game26 headlines · 15th of 138Michigan's Kyle Whittingham, Penn State's Matt Campbell among first-year coaches stumbling out of the gate CBS Sports
  5. Sep 28–Oct 4L 14-20 at Minnesota49 headlines · 6th of 138Where are the adults in the room at Michigan? Sloppiness continues to plague Wolverines under Kyle Whittingham CBS Sports“This is the biggest challenge I've had”Kyle Whittingham following Michigan's loss to Minnesota, Oct 3
  6. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltL 19-20 vs. Iowa29 headlines · 15th of 138“Ridiculous”: Dave Portnoy, Michigan Legend Let Frustration Out After Kyle Whittingham and Co. Suffer Massive Heartbreak Yahoo Sports

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from Michigan’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.

This season

1%chance he’s out by the end of this seasonCool92nd-hottest of 132 FBS jobs
0%50%+

Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.

His first rated season here.

His hot seat, week by week

The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.

BoilingHotWarmCool20262026, week 3 (3 games in): 1%, 106th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2026, week 4 (4 games in): 1%, 99th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 5 (5 games in): 2%, 93rd-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 6 (5 games in): 2%, 91st-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 7 (6 games in): 1%, 94th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 8 (7 games in): 1%, 96th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 9 (8 games in): 1%, 97th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 10 (8 games in): 1%, 92nd-hottest of 132 FBS jobsnow

What drives his number

The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.

  • ▼ Cooler
    Year 1 · tenure, which this model overrates
    (why?)

    Tenure is one of this model’s strongest inputs, but its weight was set when retirements like Nick Saban’s and Bob Stoops’ still counted as being pushed out, so it overstates how much tenure matters.

  • ▲ Hotter
    Blue Blood program, AP-ranked in the preseason · the bar going in
  • ▼ Cooler
    No previous seasons here to judge him on

What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025

A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.

Were 5-3 after 8 games
5% pushed out over results · of 502 coaches
Were in year 1, after 8 games
1% pushed out over results · of 521 coaches
The outcome
Pushed out over results — a firing, forced resignation, mutual parting or non-renewal, each read case by case. Leaving for a better job, or retiring on his own terms, doesn’t count.
Buyout
No figure on file for this coach. The salary database predates the last coaching carousel; a name mismatch is suppressed rather than misattributed.

How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.