The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Chris Petersen

Followed Steve Sarkisian. Chris Petersen raised Washington from National Program II to Power Program I.

The builder

147–38

2006–2019 · 2 stints

Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Reached Power Program in his 1st career season — faster than 57% of the 395 FBS coaches who have ever reached Power Program (rank #1 of 395 by seasons-to-arrival).

Boise State, 8 seasons

+15.3

Power Program III → Power Program I.

Washington, 6 seasons

+18.4

National Program II → Power Program I.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)

How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints

Washington7.4pt#184 of 258 · a typical amount

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

16–5 against his rivals. Just 2–4 against David Shaw.

Rivalry record

16–5

76.2% · 4 rivals

One-score games

23–24

48.9% · margin ≤8

vs. Blue Blood or better

0–1

0.0%

Rivalry ledger

Fresno State7–188%

Oregon2–433%

Washington State6–0100%

Idaho1–0100%

The toughest matchup

vs. David Shaw2–4

6 meetings, 2014–2019

’14 L’15 L’16 W · wire to wire’17 L · blew a 7-pt lead’18 W · wire to wire’19 L · blew a 4-pt lead

33% win rate across a real, 6-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.

Performance by opponent class

Dynasty

0–1 0.0%

Blue Blood

2–0 100.0%

Power Program

18–22 45.0%

National Program

37–10 78.7%

Regional Program

71–4 94.7%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact

+0.29

#58 of 319 · more than most

Defense marginal impact

+0.55

#5 of 325 · more than most

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

Coaching career

2014–2019

Washingtonbuilder

National Program II → Power Program I

Chris Petersen raised Washington from National Program II to Power Program I.

5th-best Washington tenure of 18 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on offense and outperforms his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent

+11.2 pts

#60 of 208 · a typical amount

Defense vs. talent

+29.3 pts

#11 of 208 · more than most

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Steve Sarkisian (2009–2013) · succeeded by Jimmy Lake (2020–2021).

Season	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
Record & result
Record	8–6	7–6	12–2	10–3	10–4	8–5
Postseason	L bowl	W bowl	CFP loss	CFP loss	L bowl	W bowl
Recruiting rank	#38	#26	#29	#22	#16	#15
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	39.7	45.4	43.5	42.4	41.8	47.1
Coordinators
OC	Jonathan Smith	Jonathan Smith	Jonathan Smith	Jonathan Smith / Matt Lubick	Bush Hamdan / Matt Lubick	Bush Hamdan
DC	Pete Kwiatkowski	Pete Kwiatkowski	Pete Kwiatkowski / Jimmy Lake	Pete Kwiatkowski / Jimmy Lake	Pete Kwiatkowski / Jimmy Lake	Pete Kwiatkowski / Jimmy Lake
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	57	61	89	89	73	47
Defense	82	90	95	76	90	96
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%	38.9	45.2	48.7	43.4	32.4	46.3
Red-zone pass%	38.0	35.9	55.2	38.2	31.7	47.0
4th-down go%opp. territory	26.3	26.7	18.8	16.7	36.0	49.0

Does the system survive a coordinator change?

OC: Jonathan Smith → Jonathan Smith / co-Matt Lubick · 2017

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

1st-down pass rate: 48.7% → 43.4% (-5.2 pts)

Confound, shown not hidden: only 83% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.

OC: Jonathan Smith / co-Matt Lubick → Bush Hamdan / co-Matt Lubick · 2018

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

1st-down pass rate: 43.4% → 32.4% (-11.1 pts)

Confound, shown not hidden: only 78% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.

OC: Bush Hamdan / co-Matt Lubick → Bush Hamdan · 2019

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

1st-down pass rate: 32.4% → 46.3% (+14.0 pts)

Confound, shown not hidden: only 52% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.

DC: co-Pete Kwiatkowski → co-Pete Kwiatkowski / co-Jimmy Lake · 2016the system held

2-season window either side.

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Tight end from high school

100%

#164 of 188 stints

Grows Edge from high school

100%

#191 of 208 stints

Postseason detail2014: Lost to Oklahoma State 22–30 Ticketcity Cactus Bowl2015: Beat Southern Miss 44–31 Zaxby's Heart Of Dallas Bowl2016: Lost to Alabama 7–24 CFP2017: Lost to Penn State 28–35 CFP2018: Lost to Ohio State 23–28 Rose Bowl Game Presented By Northwestern Mutual2019: Beat Boise State 38–7 Mitsubishi Motors Las Vegas Bowl

28 NFL Draft picks: Austin Seferian-Jenkins (2014), Bishop Sankey (2014), Danny Shelton (2015), Marcus Peters (2015), Shaq Thompson (2015), Hau'Oli Kikaha (2015), Travis Feeney (2016), Dwayne Washington (2016) + 20 more

55–26

2006–2013

Boise Statebuilder

National Program I → Power Program I

Chris Petersen raised Boise State from National Program I to Power Program I.

1st-best Boise State tenure of 9 by the numbers.

Followed Dan Hawkins (2001–2005) · succeeded by Bryan Harsin (2014–2020).

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Tight end from high school

100%

#164 of 188 stints

Grows Edge from high school

100%

#191 of 208 stints

21 NFL Draft picks: Daryn Colledge (2006), Gerald Alexander (2007), Legedu Naanee (2007), Korey Hall (2007), Derek Schouman (2007), Ryan Clady (2008), Orlando Scandrick (2008), Kyle Wilson (2010) + 13 more

92–12

Defining games during this era

2019 Rose Bowl · Ohio State 28, Washington 23