The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Todd Graham

Followed Nick Rolovich. Todd Graham held Hawai'i at Regional Program IV for 2 seasons.

Peak, then fade
106–72
2006–2021 · 5 stints
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Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Reached Power Program in his 9th career season — faster than 10% of the 395 FBS coaches who have ever reached Power Program (rank #332 of 395 by seasons-to-arrival).

Tulsa, 4 seasons
+9.4
Regional Program II → Regional Program I.
Arizona State, 6 seasons
+4.4
National Program I → National Program I.
Hawai'i, 2 seasons
+1.0
Regional Program IV → Regional Program IV.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

40%50%Arizona State2012–2017▼ 5.5ptHawai'i2020–2021▲ 2.4pt
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints
Arizona State7.5pt#180 of 258 · a typical amount

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

6–5 against his rivals. Winless in 3 tries against Clay Helton.

Rivalry record
6–5
54.5% · 5 rivals
One-score games
33–26
55.9% · margin ≤8
vs. Blue Blood or better
1–6
14.3%
Rivalry ledger
Arizona4–267%
UNLV1–150%
Houston0–10%
SMU1–0100%
The toughest matchup
vs. Clay Helton0–3
3 meetings, 2015–2017
’15 L’16 L · blew a 3-pt lead’17 L
0% win rate across a real, 3-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.
Performance by opponent class
Blue Blood
1–6 14.3%
Power Program
13–24 35.1%
National Program
19–17 52.8%
Regional Program
58–24 70.7%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact
+0.10
#111 of 319 · a typical amount
Defense marginal impact
-0.22
#271 of 325 · less than most

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

Coaching career

2020–2021
Hawai'icaretaker
Regional Program IV → Regional Program IV
Todd Graham held Hawai'i at Regional Program IV for 2 seasons.

9th-best Hawai'i tenure of 12 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Outperforms his recruiting talent on offense and performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent
+15.9 pts
#48 of 208 · more than most
Defense vs. talent
+10.8 pts
#64 of 208 · a typical amount
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Nick Rolovich (2016–2019) · succeeded by Timmy Chang (2022–2026).

Season20202021Trend
Record & result
Record5–46–7
PostseasonW bowl
Recruiting rank#126#126
Style — pass rate
Pass rate49.351.7
Coordinators
OCGJ Kinne / Tony HullBo Graham
DCJacob Yoro / Victor Santa CruzTrent Figg
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense7045
Defense3274
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%46.943.7
Red-zone pass%41.949.1
4th-down go%opp. territory20.024.3
Roster construction · portal era

Barely touches the portal — recruits and develops his own.

Portal arrivals
6
2.8★ avg rating
Portal departures
10
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-4
#160 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in

Brings in smaller-than-position-typical players than most.

Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.

Avg. size (raw)
6′2″, 244 lbs
across 4 of 6 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
-4.4 lbs
#254 of 255 · less than most
Avg. class year
Sr
#1 of 255 · more than most
Top states: TX (2), UT (1), CA (1)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
17.1
position-weighted
Talent lost
25.2
position-weighted
Net
-8.2
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Zacchaeus McKinney (DL) from Oklahoma
Biggest loss: Melquise Stovall (WR) to Pittsburgh
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: GJ Kinne / co-Tony Hull → Bo Graham · 2021
70th pct45th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 46.9% → 43.7% (-3.2 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 76% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
DC: co-Jacob Yoro / Victor Santa Cruz → Trent Figg · 2021
32nd pct74th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
Roster size, by position
Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)
Quarterback
193 lbs
6′1″ avg · #750 of 767 · less than most
Running back
195 lbs
5′10″ avg · #751 of 791 · less than most
Wide receiver
190 lbs
6′1″ avg · #531 of 791 · a typical amount
Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters
Interior line
313 lbs
6′4″ avg · #209 of 779 · a typical amount
D-line
266 lbs
6′2″ avg · #710 of 753 · less than most
Linebacker
224 lbs
6′1″ avg · #597 of 772 · less than most
Cornerback
188 lbs
6′0″ avg · #498 of 771 · a typical amount
Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Safety from high school
75%
#165 of 218 stints
Grows Edge from high school
100%
#191 of 208 stints
Postseason detail2020: Beat Houston 28–14 New Mexico Bowl

1 NFL Draft pick: Cole McDonald (2020)

11–11
2012–2017
Arizona Statecaretaker
National Program I → Power Program III
Todd Graham moved Arizona State from National Program I to Power Program III in 6 seasons.

6th-best Arizona State tenure of 19 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on offense and underperforms his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent
-6.3 pts
#136 of 208 · a typical amount
Defense vs. talent
-44.5 pts
#208 of 208 · less than most
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Dennis Erickson (2007–2011) · succeeded by Herm Edwards (2018–2022).

Season201220132014201520162017Trend
Record & result
Record8–510–410–36–75–77–6
PostseasonW bowlL bowlCFP loss
Recruiting rank#23#19#24#32
Style — pass rate
Pass rate47.949.947.242.4
Coordinators
OCMike NorvellMike NorvellChip LindseyBilly Napier
DCChris Ball / Keith PattersonChris Ball / Keith PattersonKeith PattersonPhil Bennett
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense52602873
Defense7913724
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%42.441.639.839.7
Red-zone pass%44.149.727.033.1
4th-down go%opp. territory25.022.426.331.9
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Mike Norvell → Chip Lindsey · 2016
60th pct28th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 41.6% → 39.8% (-1.8 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 35% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: Chip Lindsey → Billy Napier · 2017
28th pct73rd pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 39.8% → 39.7% (-0.1 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 73% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
DC: co-Chris Ball / Keith Patterson → Keith Patterson · 2016
13th pct7th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
DC: Keith Patterson → Phil Bennett · 2017
7th pct24th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Tight end from high school
100%
#164 of 188 stints
Grows Edge from high school
100%
#191 of 208 stints
Postseason detail2014: Beat Duke 36–31 Hyundai Sun Bowl2015: Lost to West Virginia 42–43 Motel 6 Cactus Bowl2017: Lost to NC State 31–52 CFP

15 NFL Draft picks: Brock Osweiler (2012), Omar Bolden (2012), Will Sutton (2014), Carl Bradford (2014), Marion Grice (2014), Damarious Randall (2015), Jaelen Strong (2015), Jamil Douglas (2015) + 7 more

46–32
2011–2011
Pittsburghcaretaker
Power Program III → National Program I
Todd Graham slid Pittsburgh from Power Program III to National Program I in 1 season.

13th-best Pittsburgh tenure of 23 by the numbers.

Followed Dave Wannstedt (2005–2010) · succeeded by Paul Chryst (2012–2014).

Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Running back from high school
100%
#196 of 208 stints

5 NFL Draft picks: Jonathan Baldwin (2011), Jabaal Sheard (2011), Dion Lewis (2011), Jason Pinkston (2011), Greg Romeus (2011)

6–6
2007–2010
Tulsacaretaker
Regional Program III → Regional Program I
Todd Graham moved Tulsa from Regional Program III to Regional Program I in 4 seasons.

14th-best Tulsa tenure of 22 by the numbers.

Followed Steve Kragthorpe (2003–2006) · succeeded by Bill Blankenship (2011–2014).

Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Edge from high school
100%
#191 of 208 stints
Grows Interior line from high school
100%
#198 of 224 stints

2 NFL Draft picks: Chris Chamberlain (2008), Charles Clay (2011)

36–17
2006–2006
Ricecaretaker
Regional Program IV → Regional Program IV
Todd Graham held Rice at Regional Program IV for 1 season.

11th-best Rice tenure of 16 by the numbers.

Followed Ken Hatfield (1994–2005) · succeeded by David Bailiff (2007–2017).

7–6