Rice: a football coaching history

Big movers show how many stature points they built or lost against what they inherited; steadier tenures show the tier they reached instead. A small blue arrow marks a real System Shift at that changeover — how hard the offense’s run/pass identity flipped.

2025–now

Scott Abell Short tenure

Averaged a 23% pass rate — among the most run-heavy stretches in FBS since 2004

6-15

2024

Pete Alamar Short tenure

Averaged a 62% pass rate — among the most pass-heavy stretches in FBS since 2004

2-2

2018–2024

Mike Bloomgren Steady

Mike Bloomgren held Rice at Regional Program V for 7 seasons.

Swung 23.2 points of pass rate — #8 of 449 FBS coaching stints since 2004

−2.9 pts over 7 seasons · bottom 32% of 6-9-season tenures (368 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Justin Wilcox’s California run (2017–2025)

9th-best Rice tenure of 10 by the numbers.

Followed David Bailiff (2007–2017) · succeeded by Pete Alamar (2024).

System Shift, on departure

System Shift, on arrival

Season	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024
Record & result
Record	2-11	3-9	2-3	4-8	5-8	6-7	2-6
Postseason	—	—	—	—	L bowl	L bowl	—
Recruiting rank	#112	#110	#93	#92	#117	#86	#122
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	42.8	42.5	38.3	42.0	46.7	52.7	61.5
Coordinators
OC	Jerry Mack	Jerry Mack	Jerry Mack	Marques Tuiasosopo	Marques Tuiasosopo	Marques Tuiasosopo	Marques Tuiasosopo
DC	Brian Smith	Brian Smith	Brian Smith	Brian Smith	Brian Smith	Brian Smith	Brian Smith
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	10	13	18	30	29	40	12
Defense	9	40	93	16	6	65	55
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	36.0	38.3	37.8	35.4	42.3	53.2	50.0
Red-zone pass%	47.9	38.2	35.0	33.3	43.1	44.5	55.7
4th-down go%opp. territory	33.3	35.9	29.2	47.4	42.4	46.2	36.1

Recruiter or developer?

Underperforms his recruiting talent on offense and performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent

-19.5 pts

#177 of 208 · bottom quarter

Defense vs. talent

-2.0 pts

#116 of 208 · middle half

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Roster construction · portal era

Barely touches the portal — recruits and develops his own.

Portal arrivals

3.1★ avg rating

Portal departures

left via the portal

Net portal flow

-2

#160 of 187 FBS stints

Who they bring in

Brings in bigger-than-position-typical players than most.

Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.

Avg. size (raw)

6′2″, 232 lbs

across 21 of 25 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix

Size vs. position-typical

+10.6 lbs

#13 of 255 · top quarter

Avg. class year

#1 of 255 · top quarter

Top states: TX (4), MD (2), NJ (2), HI (2), FL (2)

Who won the portal our read

Talent added

52.4

position-weighted

Talent lost

40.8

position-weighted

Net

+11.6

arrivals minus departures

Best addition: JT Daniels (QB) from West Virginia

Biggest loss: Tre'Shon Devones (CB) to Duke

Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.

Does the system survive a coordinator change?

OC: Jerry Mack → Marques Tuiasosopo · 2021The system held

2-season window either side.

1st-down pass rate: 38.1% → 38.8% (+0.8 pts)

Confound, shown not hidden: only 34% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.

Roster size, by position

Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)

Quarterback

214 lbs

6′2″ avg · #338 of 767 · middle half

Running back

204 lbs

5′10″ avg · #524 of 791 · middle half

Wide receiver

191 lbs

6′0″ avg · #463 of 791 · middle half

Tight end

231 lbs

6′3″ avg · #697 of 731 · bottom quarter

Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters

Interior line

299 lbs

6′4″ avg · #700 of 779 · bottom quarter

D-line

282 lbs

6′3″ avg · #433 of 753 · middle half

Linebacker

223 lbs

6′1″ avg · #642 of 772 · bottom quarter

Cornerback

184 lbs

5′11″ avg · #673 of 771 · bottom quarter

Safety

198 lbs

6′0″ avg · #156 of 346 · middle half

Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.

Where the roster comes from, by position

Buys Athlete via the portal

13%

#36 of 146 stints

Grows Tight end from high school

100%

#164 of 188 stints

Grows Tackle from high school

78%

#171 of 223 stints

Postseason detail2022: Lost to Southern Miss 24-38 LendingTree Bowl2023: Lost to Texas State 21-45 SERVPRO First Responder Bowl

1 NFL Draft pick: Luke McCaffrey (2024)

−2.9

24-52

2007–2017

David Bailiff Steady

David Bailiff moved the Owls from Regional Program IV to Regional Program III in 11 seasons.

Swung 26.0 points of pass rate — #4 of 449 FBS coaching stints since 2004

+7.0 pts over 11 seasons · bottom 28% of 10+-season tenures (202 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Kyle Whittingham’s Utah run (2004–2025)

6th-best Rice tenure of 10 by the numbers.

Followed Todd Graham (2006) · succeeded by Mike Bloomgren (2018–2024).

System Shift, on departure

System Shift, on arrival

Season	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Record & result
Record	3-9	10-3	2-10	4-8	4-8	7-6	10-4	8-5	5-7	3-9	1-11
Postseason	—	W bowl	—	—	—	W bowl	L bowl	W bowl	—	—	—
Recruiting rank	#89	#92	#83	#92	#97	#85	#91	#91	#101	#127	#122
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	59.1	53.5	52.6	42.2	45.1	39.1	33.2	38.1	41.2	46.0	33.6
Coordinators
OC	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	Larry Edmondson / Billy Lynch	Larry Edmondson / Billy Lynch	Larry Edmondson / Billy Lynch	Billy Lynch
DC	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	Chris Thurmond	Chris Thurmond	Chris Thurmond	Brian Stewart
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	22	90	4	42	24	75	47	64	39	27	20
Defense	16	30	8	5	83	22	57	47	2	6	6
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	49.3	57.3	42.7	27.7	36.4	38.4	33.5	28.4	32.6	44.4	26.5
Red-zone pass%	52.5	53.9	46.2	41.2	44.3	34.2	29.5	25.0	37.8	31.5	22.0
4th-down go%opp. territory	27.8	32.1	35.3	24.3	17.2	17.8	22.2	23.7	25.0	31.0	48.0

Recruiter or developer?

Underperforms his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent

-13.8 pts

#161 of 208 · bottom quarter

Defense vs. talent

-38.9 pts

#203 of 208 · bottom quarter

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Does the system survive a coordinator change?

OC: Larry Edmondson / Billy Lynch (co) → Billy Lynch · 2017

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

1st-down pass rate: 44.4% → 26.5% (-17.9 pts)

Confound, shown not hidden: only 38% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.

DC: Chris Thurmond → Brian Stewart · 2017

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Kicker from high school

100%

#52 of 56 stints

Grows Tight end from high school

100%

#164 of 188 stints

Postseason detail2008: Beat Western Michigan 38-14 Bowl2012: Beat Air Force 33-14 Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl2013: Lost to Mississippi State 7-44 AutoZone LIBERTY BOWL2014: Beat Fresno State 30-6 Hawai'i Bowl

8 NFL Draft picks: Jarett Dillard (2009), James Casey (2009), Cheta Ozougwu (2011), Scott Solomon (2012), Vance McDonald (2013), Luke Willson (2013), Phillip Gaines (2014), Christian Covington (2015)

+7.0

57-80

2006

Todd Graham Short tenure

No outlier style signal this stint

7-6

1994–2005

Ken Hatfield Steady

Ken Hatfield moved Rice from Regional Program IV to Regional Program III in 12 seasons.

Averaged a 21% pass rate — among the most run-heavy stretches in FBS since 2004

+2.7 pts over 12 seasons · bottom 17% of 10+-season tenures (202 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Dave Doeren’s NC State run (2013–now)

5th-best Rice tenure of 10 by the numbers.

Followed Fred Goldsmith (1989–1993) · succeeded by Todd Graham (2006).

System Shift, on departure

Season	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005
Record & result
Record	5-6	2-8-1	7-4	7-4	5-6	5-6	3-8	8-4	4-7	5-7	3-8	1-10
Postseason	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Recruiting rank	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	#110	#94
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	16.5	25.9
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	39	32
Defense	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	41	2
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	9.8	14.7
Red-zone pass%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	8.0	14.6
4th-down go%opp. territory	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	56.8

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Edge from high school

100%

#191 of 208 stints

Grows Running back from high school

100%

#196 of 208 stints

3 NFL Draft picks: Ndukwe Kalu (1997), Ryan Pontbriand (2003), Brandon Green (2003)

+2.7

55-78-1

1989–1993

Fred Goldsmith Steady

Fred Goldsmith moved the Owls from Regional Program V to Regional Program IV in 5 seasons.

+5.7 pts over 5 seasons · top 12% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Gary Crowton’s Louisiana Tech run (1996–1998)

7th-best Rice tenure of 10 by the numbers.

Followed Jerry Berndt (1986–1988) · succeeded by Ken Hatfield (1994–2005).

2 NFL Draft picks: Donald Hollas (1991), Bert Emanuel (1994)

+5.7

23-31-1

1986–1988

Jerry Berndt Steady

Jerry Berndt held Rice at Regional Program V for 3 seasons.

+0.4 pts over 3 seasons · top 32% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Sean Lewis’s Kent State run (2018–2022)

10th-best Rice tenure of 10 by the numbers.

Followed Watson Brown (1984–1985) · succeeded by Fred Goldsmith (1989–1993).

1 NFL Draft pick: Courtney Hall (1989)

+0.4

6-27

1984–1985

Watson Brown Short tenure

4-18

1978–1983

Ray Alborn Steady

Ray Alborn slid Rice from Regional Program III to Regional Program IV in 6 seasons.

−5.8 pts over 6 seasons · bottom 17% of 6-9-season tenures (368 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Tommy West’s Memphis run (2001–2009)

8th-best Rice tenure of 10 by the numbers.

Followed Homer Rice (1976–1977) · succeeded by Watson Brown (1984–1985).

1 NFL Draft pick: Earl Cooper (1980)

−5.8

13-53

1976–1977

Homer Rice Short tenure

4-18

1972–1975

Al Conover Steady

Al Conover held Rice at Regional Program I for 4 seasons.

+1.5 pts over 4 seasons · top 26% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Nick Saban’s Michigan State run (1995–1999)

4th-best Rice tenure of 10 by the numbers.

Followed Bill Peterson (1971) · succeeded by Homer Rice (1976–1977).

6 NFL Draft picks: Gary Butler (1973), Rodrigo Barnes (1973), Carl Swierc (1974), Cornelius Walker (1975), Rodney Norton (1976), Larry Brune (1976)

+1.5

14-28-2

1971

Bill Peterson Short tenure

3-7-1

1967–1970

Bo Hagan Steady

Bo Hagan slid the Owls from National Program II to National Program III in 4 seasons.

−8.7 pts over 4 seasons · bottom 18% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Mark Duffner’s Maryland run (1992–1996)

3rd-best Rice tenure of 10 by the numbers.

Followed Jess Neely (1940–1966) · succeeded by Bill Peterson (1971).

1 NFL Draft pick: Brownie Wheless (1971)

−8.7

12-27-1

1940–1966

Jess Neely Builder≈

Jess Neely raised Rice from National Program I to Power Program II.

+13.0 pts over 27 seasons · top 45% of 10+-season tenures (202 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Brian Kelly’s Notre Dame run (2010–2021)

1st-best Rice tenure of 10 by the numbers.

Followed Jimmy Kitts (1936–1939) · succeeded by Bo Hagan (1967–1970).

+13.0

144-124-10

1936–1939

Jimmy Kitts Steady

Jimmy Kitts held Rice at National Program I for 4 seasons.

2nd-best Rice tenure of 10 by the numbers.

Succeeded by Jess Neely (1940–1966).

National Program I

16-25-3