The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Mike Bloomgren

Followed David Bailiff. Mike Bloomgren held Rice at Regional Program V for 7 seasons.

24–52

2018–2024 · 1 stint

Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Reached Regional Program in his 1st career season — faster than 20% of the 925 FBS coaches who have ever reached Regional Program (rank #1 of 925 by seasons-to-arrival).

Rice, 7 seasons

−2.2

Regional Program V → Regional Program V.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)

How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints

Rice23.2pt#3 of 258 · more than most

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

1–4 against his rivals. Winless in 3 tries against Jeff Traylor.

Rivalry record

1–4

20.0% · 2 rivals

One-score games

11–13

45.8% · margin ≤8

vs. Blue Blood or better

0–1

0.0%

Rivalry ledger

Houston1–325%

SMU0–10%

The toughest matchup

vs. Jeff Traylor0–3

3 meetings, 2021–2023

’21 L’22 L’23 L

0% win rate across a real, 3-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.

Performance by opponent class

Blue Blood

0–1 0.0%

Power Program

0–4 0.0%

National Program

2–10 16.7%

Regional Program

15–28 34.9%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact

-0.32

#263 of 319 · less than most

Defense marginal impact

+0.04

#127 of 325 · a typical amount

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

Coaching career

2018–2024

Ricecaretaker

Regional Program V → Regional Program V

Mike Bloomgren held Rice at Regional Program V for 7 seasons.

12th-best Rice tenure of 16 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Underperforms his recruiting talent on offense and performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent

-19.3 pts

#176 of 208 · less than most

Defense vs. talent

-2.6 pts

#117 of 208 · a typical amount

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed David Bailiff (2007–2017) · succeeded by Scott Abell (2025–2026).

Season	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024
Record & result
Record	2–11	3–9	2–3	4–8	5–8	6–7	2–6
Postseason	—	—	—	—	L bowl	L bowl	—
Recruiting rank	#112	#110	#93	#92	#117	#86	#122
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	42.8	42.5	38.3	42.0	46.7	52.7	61.5
Coordinators
OC	Jerry Mack	Jerry Mack	Jerry Mack	Marques Tuiasosopo	Marques Tuiasosopo	Marques Tuiasosopo	Marques Tuiasosopo
DC	Brian Smith	Brian Smith	Brian Smith	Brian Smith	Brian Smith	Brian Smith	Brian Smith
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	10	13	19	31	29	40	12
Defense	9	40	90	12	6	65	55
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%	36.0	38.3	37.8	35.4	42.3	53.2	50.0
Red-zone pass%	47.9	38.2	35.0	33.3	43.1	44.5	55.7
4th-down go%opp. territory	33.3	35.9	29.2	47.4	42.4	46.2	36.1

Roster construction · portal era

Barely touches the portal — recruits and develops his own.

Portal arrivals

3.1★ avg rating

Portal departures

left via the portal

Net portal flow

-2

#160 of 187 FBS stints

Who they bring in

Brings in bigger-than-position-typical players than most.

Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.

Avg. size (raw)

6′2″, 232 lbs

across 21 of 25 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix

Size vs. position-typical

+10.5 lbs

#8 of 255 · more than most

Avg. class year

#7 of 255 · more than most

Top states: TX (4), MD (2), NJ (2), HI (2), FL (2)

Who won the portal our read

Talent added

52.4

position-weighted

Talent lost

40.8

position-weighted

Net

+11.6

arrivals minus departures

Best addition: JT Daniels (QB) from West Virginia

Biggest loss: Tre'Shon Devones (CB) to Duke

Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.

Does the system survive a coordinator change?

OC: Jerry Mack → Marques Tuiasosopo · 2021the system held

2-season window either side.

1st-down pass rate: 38.1% → 38.8% (+0.8 pts)

Confound, shown not hidden: only 34% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.

Roster size, by position

Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)

Quarterback

214 lbs

6′2″ avg · #338 of 767 · a typical amount

Running back

204 lbs

5′10″ avg · #524 of 791 · a typical amount

Wide receiver

191 lbs

6′0″ avg · #463 of 791 · a typical amount

Tight end

231 lbs

6′3″ avg · #697 of 731 · less than most

Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters

Interior line

299 lbs

6′4″ avg · #700 of 779 · less than most

D-line

282 lbs

6′3″ avg · #433 of 753 · a typical amount

Linebacker

223 lbs

6′1″ avg · #642 of 772 · less than most

Cornerback

184 lbs

5′11″ avg · #673 of 771 · less than most

Safety

198 lbs

6′0″ avg · #156 of 346 · a typical amount

Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.

Where the roster comes from, by position

Buys ATH via the portal

13%

#36 of 146 stints

Grows Tight end from high school

100%

#164 of 188 stints

Grows Tackle from high school

78%

#171 of 223 stints

Postseason detail2022: Lost to Southern Miss 24–38 LendingTree Bowl2023: Lost to Texas State 21–45 SERVPRO First Responder Bowl

1 NFL Draft pick: Luke McCaffrey (2024)

24–52