Justin Wilcox
Followed Sonny Dykes. Justin Wilcox held California at National Program II for 9 seasons.
In his own words
Awaiting signal — no quotes collected from this staff yet this cycle.
Career arc
His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.
Reached National Program in his 1st career season — faster than 41% of the 675 FBS coaches who have ever reached National Program (rank #1 of 675 by seasons-to-arrival).
Style position and drift
Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.
Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.
The big-game ledger
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
5–3 against his rivals. Just 1–3 against Mario Cristobal.
His own effect, isolated
A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.
Model fit as of 2026-09-04.
Coaching career
13th-best California tenure of 19 by the numbers.
Underperforms his recruiting talent on offense and performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on defense.
Followed Sonny Dykes (2013–2016).
| Season | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record & result | ||||||||||
| Record | 5–7 | 7–6 | 8–5 | 1–3 | 5–7 | 4–8 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 1–1 | |
| Postseason | — | L bowl | W bowl | — | — | — | L bowl | L bowl | L bowl | |
| Recruiting rank | #70 | #42 | #43 | #39 | #28 | #59 | #79 | #55 | #69 | |
| Style — pass rate | ||||||||||
| Pass rate | 53.4 | 46.1 | 43.5 | 48.4 | 48.7 | 59.4 | 46.6 | 51.4 | 56.7 | |
| Coordinators | ||||||||||
| OC | Beau Baldwin | Beau Baldwin | Beau Baldwin | Bill Musgrave | Bill Musgrave | Bill Musgrave | Jake Spavital | Mike Bloesch | Bryan Harsin | |
| DC | Tim DeRuyter | Tim DeRuyter | Tim DeRuyter | Tim DeRuyter / Peter Sirmon | Peter Sirmon | Peter Sirmon | Peter Sirmon | Peter Sirmon | Vic So'oto / Terrence Brown | |
| Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile | ||||||||||
| Offense | 33 | 2 | 50 | 10 | 35 | 48 | 48 | 34 | 58 | |
| Defense | 46 | 97 | 63 | 78 | 73 | 34 | 42 | 60 | 28 | |
| Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only) | ||||||||||
| 1st-down pass% | 48.0 | 45.3 | 42.7 | 51.3 | 45.6 | 54.8 | 43.8 | 53.7 | 47.2 | |
| Red-zone pass% | 43.1 | 44.0 | 38.0 | 50.0 | 40.5 | 57.8 | 36.1 | 48.4 | 34.1 | |
| 4th-down go%opp. territory | 29.8 | 34.0 | 32.4 | 60.0 | 54.5 | 42.2 | 59.6 | 29.2 | 43.2 | |
A typical amount of portal roster-building.
Typical size for position, once adjusted for position mix.
A typical class-year mix of incoming transfers.
18 NFL Draft picks: Davis Webb (2017), Chad Hansen (2017), Khalfrani Muhammad (2017), Devante Downs (2018), James Looney (2018), Ashtyn Davis (2020), Jaylinn Hawkins (2020), Evan Weaver (2020) + 10 more
1 player-season honored (All-America / national award): Nohl Williams (2024)
Justin Wilcox
Defensive coordinator across 2 programs, 2 stints, before and after wearing the head-coach hat — every season measured on the same axis, whether he personally ran the unit or someone else did.