ACC · Tosh Lupoi, year 1 (2-1) · California Memorial Stadium · 62,467 · 44,934 avg in 2026
LastW 49–7 vs Wagner · Sat Sep 19 · Adam Mohammed 91 rush yds, 2 TD, 78 rec yds
Nextvs Clemson · Fri Sep 25 · 10:30 pm ET · California Memorial Stadium · Clemson by 1.5 · series 1-0 · Game preview
Updated Tue Sep 22 · through week 3
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 6 | #63 | #62 | +2.5✗ | UCLA | L 24–45 141 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #63 | #134 | +4✓ | @Syracuse | W 21–18 146 | 1-1 | 1-0 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #73 | #251 | -58.5✗ | Wagner | W 49–7 130 | 2-1 | 1-0 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #72 | #23 | +1.5 | Clemson | |||
| 5 | Oct 3 | #75 | #107 | @UNLV | ||||
| 6 | Oct 10 | Virginia Tech | ||||||
| 7 | Oct 17 | Wake Forest | ||||||
| 8 | Oct 24 | @SMU | ||||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | @NC State | ||||||
| 11 | Nov 14 | @Virginia | ||||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | Stanford | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | Pittsburgh |
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19 | Wagner | W 49–7 | 626 | 2 | 31:52 | +0.460 | 57.7% | 117.2% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 12 | @Syracuse | W 21–18 | 249 | 0 | 25:50 | -0.110 | 35.0% | 110.5% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 6 | UCLA | L 24–45 | 410 | 3 | 34:49 | +0.133 | 33.7% | 148.4% | Most explosive |
| Season average (3 games) | 428 | 1.7 | +0.161 | 42.2% | 125.3% | ||||
California is the best public university on earth fielding a football team that won the most chaotic play in the sport's history and has spent the 43 years since chasing a moment that big.
Fans here believe old Blues will tell you the rankings forget Cal exists between rivalry weeks — that a school this good at everything else gets written off in football by people who can't name a…
The season in chapters
What fans said
Real posts from the day of the game, chosen by community score · usernames not shown
What it is like to watch them2025 · 7-6 · last season
✓ measured from 13 games · ranks are among ACC teams the same season
Recent form · last 10 games · incl. 2025
Mixed. 5-5 over the last 10, and won the last two.
It’s extremely frustrating, it’s maddening and we’re excited to get back on the field and get going because the last couple of days haven’t been fun around here
Next Sep 26
vs Clemson · at home
✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style
Market outlook
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-09-22
the open questionis the portal class enough to move the needle?
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (QB) and Mark Hamper (WR) headline California's top-21 portal class — a rare bright spot in Justin Wilcox’s sixth season with 22% production returning.
our readdeveloping
Tosh Lupoi begins his first season at California, inheriting a 7-6 record but facing unease among fans who expect more from a program transitioning from the Pac-12 to the ACC.
our readbackground
Lupoi inherits a 7-6 program with 22% production returning and a talent rank of #36 — the Bay Area’s football identity hangs in the balance as the ACC transition deepens.
our readdeveloping
A year after diagnosing the QB room as the problem, Jackson Brousseau (QB) arrives in a top-2 ACC portal class — 6.5 wins project a cautious market for a program.
our readdeveloping
Tosh Lupoi begins his first season at California, where a 7-6 record and shifting fan identity create tension as the program navigates its ACC transition.
our readfront page
Tosh Lupoi begins his tenure with a 7-6 record and a win total drop below bowl eligibility, raising questions about sustaining momentum in a program defined by its legacy and transition.
our readdeveloping
Tosh Lupoi inherits a 7-6 winning record at California, but the program's uneasy fanbase questions if the ACC transition can sustain its identity beyond the rivalry result.
our readbackground
Jacob De Jesus: a depth dna signal screened this season.
our readbackground
Justin Wilcox enters his 7th season at California with a 7-6 record, but coordinator changes and an uneasy fanbase signal tension as the program navigates its ACC transition.
our readbackground
Outcome band · California · 2026
Floor, base and ceiling come from the season-path projection, which plays out conference title games and the CFP — so a ceiling can run past 12 games.
California signed a top-10 transfer-portal class — 36 additions headlined by Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (QB) from Oregon and Devin Brown (QB) from Ohio State. It is a top-2 portal class in the ACC this cycle. Portal pickups don't redshirt. The coverage sees this as a targeted, ready-to-contribute class built for snap competition, not depth-chart filler. The coverage reads this as a credible, targeted haul.
The off-field storyline driving the noise right now. Not analysis — the soap opera, and that's the point.
The 'portal class fills the gaps' believers -- upgrades at real positions of need.
The 'portal is a gamble' counter -- departure losses and the 'plug-and-play doesn't work' read.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
This event was in 138 of 4348 board posts (3%) over the last 60 days — engaged but not consumed. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.
The off-field storyline driving the noise right now. Not analysis — the soap opera, and that's the point.
The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.
The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
This event was in 53 of 4348 board posts (1%) over the last 60 days — engaged but not consumed. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
More in this tab
California is the Pac-12-to-ACC transition program whose 'The Play' 1982 + Joe Roth tribute + Memorial Stadium fault-line setting define what Bay Area football looks like.
The program ledger
since 2025California coach arrested
This isn't a depth chart story — a coach arrest while the win total sits at 5.5 and class rank stalls at #56 is a program-stability alarm that recruiting visits can't paper over.
Kingston Lopa: 3 INT at Syracuse
Top 0.1% interceptions game since 2021. at Syracuse (FBS) W 21-18.
Win total: 6.5 → 5.5 (▼1)
Win total slid from 6.5 to 5.5 without a clear public catalyst — worth watching as the offseason firms up.
DaJohn Yarborough commits to Cal
Four-star IOL in a class already ranked 69th nationally — the Bears are patching the interior while Michigan raids their backyard, so landing Yarborough locally is a quiet win for Wilcox's line depth.
Cal finalizes 2027 non-conference schedule
Wilcox is scheduling with something to prove — a top-19 portal class and ACC entry means the non-con slate now has to reflect a program that stopped settling.
Win total (line at 5.5) — no reprice yet on "California coach arrested"
It's been 8d since "California coach arrested" and the line hasn't moved. Worth checking again in a few days to see if the books are just slow.
Top 3 commits
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
CA leads the 2026 class with 10 commits. National footprint reaching 6 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
76 signees across 15 states, 2023-2026. CA leads the pull.
Miles from home · 2026 roster
The median California player grew up 576 miles from campus.
Half this roster came from closer than that; half came from farther.
Straight-line distance from each player's listed hometown to California Memorial Stadium. Hometowns are placed at city-centroid precision, not street address — fine at this scale, but a player's true door-to-door number can differ by a few miles. 111 of 114 listed players have a geocoded hometown. Source: CFBD roster hometowns.
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
Fan confidence in a typical range for this program right now
44th percentile among FBS programs
Recovering 40% of their own fumbles — running cold vs. the ~52% league rate.
2 of 5 own fumbles recovered themselves, 2026 only.
Converting 31% of pass disruptions into takeaways — well above the ~19% league rate.
5 interceptions of 16 disrupted passes (11 deflected, 5 intercepted), 2026 only.
Winning the penalty battle: 23 penalties committed vs. 31 drawn on opponents, a 56-yard edge.
226 penalty yards committed vs. 282 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
Outcome band · California · 2026
Recruiting Footprint · 2026