3portal class
California signs top-11 transfer class with notable additions
A year after diagnosing the QB room as the problem, Jackson Brousseau (QB) arrives in a top-2 ACC portal class — 6.5 wins project a cautious market for a program.
California7-6The read on California depends entirely on who you ask.
belief cooled ↓ 5.5vs prior week
Fanbase belief
Mixed
52/100 · 796 mentions
~ our readGrounding
running on emotion
3% cite a stat · 7% typical ✓ counted
~ our readVolatility
Chaotic
σ 24 pts
~ our readThe model
#78
CFB Zeitgeist · -0.1
✓ measured3Hope-Doping·Offseason
California is the best public university on earth fielding a football team that won the most chaotic play in the sport's history and has spent the 43 years since chasing a moment that big.
Title DroughtSince 2006 · 19 yrs
Fans here believe old Blues will tell you the rankings forget Cal exists between rivalry weeks — that a school this good at everything else gets written off in football by people who can't name a sing…
offseason · quiet
Roster Reload - California
2026 snapshot - 2026-08-06Returning Production22%Low continuity / heavy reload
Talent Composite#36 nationally247 composite 726.2
Portal Additions32Primary repair: CB
Portal Losses36Primary pressure: LB
Draft Loss1NFL Draft departures (1)
Recruiting Reload#56Development class
LBin 3 - Kamar Mothudiout 5 - Cade UluaveStarter Risk
current room: 237 lbs avg (2025 roster)
OTin 4 - Kahlee Tafaiout 4 - Leon BellEven
EDGEin 4 - Justin Beadlesout 3 - TJ Bush Jr.Upgrade
DLin 3 - Jericho Johnsonout 4 - Tyson FordDowngrade
current room: 298 lbs avg (2025 roster)
WRin 3 - Chase Hendricksout 3 - Jaiven PlummerEven
current room: 191 lbs avg (2025 roster)
RBin 3 - Adam Mohammedout 2 - Kendrick RaphaelEven
current room: 205 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Belief EKG
WinLoss · hover for scorePrior seasons
Approaching
31 days
until kickoff · vs UCLA · Sun Sep 6 · 02:30 UTC
The experience
California is the Pac-12-to-ACC transition program whose 'The Play' 1982 + Joe Roth tribute + Memorial Stadium fault-line setting define what Bay Area football looks like.
Offense: SoftRun/Pass: Pass-first, spreadDefense: Solid
California's 2026 Season Will Be Defined by Roster Turnover and Transfer Impact
With only 22% of returning players and a heavy reliance on transfers, California faces a high-stakes rebuild. The team's balanced portal churn and development class recruitment suggest a potential for improvement.
- Roster reloadCalifornia has only 22% of its roster returning, with 36 transfers leaving and 32 entering, indicating significant roster turnover.
Data as of 2026-08-01
·
Validated against program evidence
Oski the Bear is patient.
California · the story right now
7 storylines developing
What California's transfer portal class is really about
the open questionis the portal class enough to move the needle?
portal2025-05-11~readnew
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (QB) and Mark Hamper (WR) headline California's top-21 portal class — a rare bright spot in Justin Wilcox’s sixth season with 22% production returning.
what happenedCalifornia signed a top-10 transfer-portal class — 36 additions headlined by Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (QB) from Oregon and Devin Brown (QB) from Ohio State. ✓ fact
the contexta top-2 portal class in the ACC this cycle
narrative tension · our read
coordinatorsthis cycle~readnew
Justin Wilcox enters his 7th season at California with a 7-6 record, but coordinator changes and an uneasy fanbase signal tension as the program navigates its ACC transition.
what happenedCalifornia: coordinator change reshaping a unit. ✓ fact
narrative tension · our read
coordinatorsthis cycle~readnew
Tosh Lupoi begins his first season at California, inheriting a 7-6 record but facing unease among fans who expect more from a program transitioning from the Pac-12 to the ACC.
what happenedCalifornia: coordinator change reshaping a unit. ✓ fact
narrative tension · our read
deep threatthis cycle~attributednew
Jacob De Jesus: a depth dna signal screened this season.
narrative tension · our read
rivalrythis cycle~readnew
Tosh Lupoi inherits a 7-6 winning record at California, but the program's uneasy fanbase questions if the ACC transition can sustain its identity beyond the rivalry result.
what happenedCalifornia: a rivalry result reversing the streak. ✓ fact
narrative tension · our read
portal2026-02-04~readnew
A year after diagnosing the QB room as the problem, Jackson Brousseau (QB) arrives in a top-2 ACC portal class — 6.5 wins project a cautious market for a program.
what happenedCalifornia signed a top-11 transfer-portal class — 32 additions headlined by Jackson Brousseau (QB) from Colorado State and Daniel Harris (CB) from Georgia. ✓ fact
the contexta top-2 portal class in the ACC this cycle
narrative tension · our read
coachingthis cycle~readnew
Lupoi inherits a 7-6 program with 22% production returning and a talent rank of #36 — the Bay Area’s football identity hangs in the balance as the ACC transition deepens.
what happenedTosh Lupoi took over as California's head coach, replacing Justin Wilcox. ✓ fact
the contextreplaces 6-year head coach Justin Wilcox (29-35)
narrative tension · our read
How past storylines here turned out
ReplacedCalifornia's defensive coordinator spot turned over again the following season. See who's next →
ReplacedCalifornia's offensive coordinator spot turned over again the following season. See who's next →
The story
The Offseason Ledger · California
2 verified updates · portal · recruiting · staff · news- Recruiting
DaJohn Yarborough commits to Cal
Four-star IOL in a class already ranked 69th nationally — the Bears are patching the interior while Michigan raids their backyard, so landing Yarborough locally is a quiet win for Wilcox's line depth.
- News
Cal finalizes 2027 non-conference schedule
Wilcox is scheduling with something to prove — a top-19 portal class and ACC entry means the non-con slate now has to reflect a program that stopped settling.
Transfer portal snapshot
+1.0 net portal points
(raw ledger: -8.0 — unweighted, no position adjustment)LB-8.3
starter risk
CB+7.7
need not filled
IOL-4.4
starter risk
QB-4.3
S+4.1
EDGE+3.7
RB+3.5
P-3.5
DL-3.2
TE-3.1
WR+1.8
LS-1.0
K-0.7
OT-0.5
Top 3 commits
2026 class
★★★★☆
Daniel McMorris
#267 national
★★★★☆
Taimane Purcell
#357 national
Profiles like a typical incoming tight end — 19 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Complete TE archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
★★★☆☆
Victor Santino
#527 national
Profiles like a typical incoming running back — 21 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Balanced Back archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
→
Fan confidence in a typical range for this program right now
47th percentile among FBS programs
Fan vs. market≈
47th
Fan percentile
(FBS mood rank)
(FBS mood rank)
6.5
Vegas O/U wins
(41st among FBS)
(41st among FBS)
Fan mood aligned with market consensus
Win total consensus · 3 books
Market outlook
Season expectations
Win total3 booksO/U 6.5
CFP championship#64 in field+50000
ACC title#9 in market+1000
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-08-06
California · Next-Season Outcome Band
California · Next-Season Outcome BandFloor / Base / Ceiling
Floor 5-7
Base 8-5
Ceiling 10-3
floor5-7No postseason.
base8-5Bowl game.
ceiling10-3Bowl game.
Final-season-aware projection: floor / base / ceiling include conference title and CFP games where the model supports them, so a ceiling can exceed a 12-game regular season.
How the room reacted
Following now · California · Transfer portal Confidence
California's top-10 portal class: the window closed in their favor. The snaps decide who actually matters.
California signed a top-10 transfer-portal class — 36 additions headlined by Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (QB) from Oregon and Devin Brown (QB) from Ohio State. It is a top-2 portal class in the ACC this cycle. Portal pickups don't redshirt. The coverage sees this as a targeted, ready-to-contribute class built for snap competition, not depth-chart filler. The coverage reads this as a credible, targeted haul.
near-unanimous belief
where the takes land · dot = how loud
DOUBTBELIEF
Believers4 bull takes
🎪 drama: hot💬 fans: 7% volume · mostly neutral
Developing3 new this week
yesterdayCal gets ready for 1st season under coach Tosh Lupoi, QB Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele at the helm — CBS News
2 days agoTosh Lupoi's Recruiting Will Focus on High School Athletes, Not Transfers — Sports Illustrated
2 days agoJaron-Keawe Sagapolutele readies for Cal Football ascension in year two — On3
The cast who's driving the story · latest headline on each, attributed
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele QB · Oregon
“Cal gets ready for 1st season under coach Tosh Lupoi, QB Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele at the helm” — CBS News · 2026-08-05
Devin Brown QB · Ohio State
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (QB) and Mark Hamper (WR) headline California's top-21 portal class — a rare bright spot in Justin Wilcox’s sixth season with 22% production returning.
Next · what to watch
The non-obvious question after any portal class isn't who signed — it's who just lost their job. Depth-chart displacement is the untold second chapter: one starter-level arrival means a returning contributor is now competing or transferring out. Watch depth-chart competition in fall camp — that's where portal classes win or lose their billing. The boards are already there — one thread raises exactly this.
Source of record: California signed a top-10 transfer-portal class — 36 additions headlined by Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (QB) from Oregon and Devin Brown (QB) from Ohio State — a top-2 portal class in the ACC this cycle.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
🎪The circus“Cal gets ready for 1st season under coach Tosh Lupoi, QB Jaron-K” — the saga that won't quit.›
The off-field storyline driving the noise right now. Not analysis — the soap opera, and that's the point.
“Cal gets ready for 1st season under coach Tosh Lupoi, QB Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele at the helm”
CBS News · 2026-08-05 · read ↗
“Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele readies for Cal Football ascension in year two”
On3 · 2026-08-04 · read ↗
“Sagapolutele Named To Maxwell Award Watch List”
California Golden Bears Athletics · 2026-08-03 · read ↗
📣Believers4 bullish/portal items -- the case it's working.›
The 'portal class fills the gaps' believers -- upgrades at real positions of need.
“Tosh Lupoi's Recruiting Will Focus on High School Athletes, Not Transfers”
Sports Illustrated · 2026-08-04 · read ↗
“Coach Fran Brown and his staff are recruiting California like Syracuse has nothing to lose”
On3 · 2026-08-03 · read ↗
“Ranking the Top 10 ACC transfers: A look at the most impactful roster additions for the 2026 season”
On3 · 2026-07-15 · read ↗
🧐SkepticsNo prominent dissent — the coverage runs one way.›
The 'portal is a gamble' counter -- departure losses and the 'plug-and-play doesn't work' read.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
💬The boards7% of recent board volume — quieter than the headlines. Board mood this week: mostly neutral.›
This event was in 155 of 2241 board posts (7%) over the last 60 days — engaged but not consumed. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
"New CS transfer student here! I am somehow worried about the schedule for the incoming fall and wondering if I can handle all of them, since I dropped out of college before. As for"
r/berkeley ~ fan take
"I didn't apply to Berkeley and will have to go to Merced. But in case, I want to transfer what are the perks of being in Santa Cruz? What about the overall costs? Recently I had to"
r/berkeley ~ fan take
Board health this week (821 posts): 14% positive · 74% neutral · 12% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.
Following now · California · Developing Confidence
California: coordinator change reshaping a unit.
California: coordinator change reshaping a unit.
near-unanimous belief
where the takes land · dot = how loud
DOUBTBELIEF
Believers5 bull takes
🎪 drama: simmering💬 fans: 1% volume · mostly neutral
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Justin Wilcox enters his 7th season at California with a 7-6 record, but coordinator changes and an uneasy fanbase signal tension as the program navigates its ACC transition.
Source of record: California: coordinator change reshaping a unit.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
🎪The circus“Sagapolutele Named To Maxwell Award Watch List” — the saga that won't quit.›
The off-field storyline driving the noise right now. Not analysis — the soap opera, and that's the point.
“Sagapolutele Named To Maxwell Award Watch List”
California Golden Bears Athletics · 2026-08-03 · read ↗
📣Believers5 bullish items -- the case it's working.›
The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.
“Safety in numbers: California is loaded at the position and recruitments are taking shape”
On3 · 2026-08-04 · read ↗
“Cowboys Receive Verbal Commitment From California Speedster”
7220sports.com · 2026-08-03 · read ↗
“Coach Fran Brown and his staff are recruiting California like Syracuse has nothing to lose”
On3 · 2026-08-03 · read ↗
🧐SkepticsNo prominent dissent — the coverage runs one way.›
The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
💬The boards1% of recent board volume — quieter than the headlines. Board mood this week: mostly neutral.›
This event was in 32 of 2241 board posts (1%) over the last 60 days — engaged but not consumed. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
"UC President James Milliken issued a letter Wednesday urging California’s congressional representatives to take action to address slower funding disbursement rates than in years pr"
r/berkeley ~ fan take
"Hi everyone! I’m an international visiting student at UC Berkeley this year, and I’m trying to decide which phone carrier to use. I’ll mostly be around Berkeley, but I also plan to"
r/berkeley ~ fan take
Board health this week (821 posts): 14% positive · 74% neutral · 12% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.
Recent Form · last 10 games
Cooling
Two of five. Schedule has caught up.
Streak L1Last 5 · 2-3Last 10 · 4-6
The forecast
Opens Sep 6
vs UCLA · at home
Season line6.5 winsover +110
SoftPass-first, spreadSolid
✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style
Rival pulse
Stanford
Hopeful+15
Big Game
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
18
CA · 10HI · 4CO · 1FL · 1OK · 1UT · 1
CA leads the 2026 class with 10 commits. National footprint reaching 6 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
76 signees across 15 states, 2023-2026. CA leads the pull.
r/cfb this year
[Postgame Thread] California Defeats SMU 38-35
[Game Thread] SMU @ California (8:00 PM ET)
[Postgame Thread] California Defeats Texas Southern 35-3
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
National spotlight
12 games with TV coverage: 9 ESPN, 1 cable, 2 conference network
Kickoff windows: 2 afternoon, 10 primetime
Fumble luck
Recovering 62% of the fumbles they've forced — running hot vs. the ~49% league rate.
5 of 8 forced fumbles recovered; 7 of 12 own fumbles recovered themselves, 2025 only.
Takeaway conversion
Getting hands on the ball but not cashing in: 13% of disruptions converted, vs. the ~19% league rate.
8 interceptions of 61 disrupted passes (53 deflected, 8 intercepted), 2025 only.
Penalty battle
The penalty battle is a wash: 101 penalties committed vs. 96 drawn on opponents.
840 penalty yards committed vs. 817 drawn on opponents, 2025 season total.
The Pulse on California
52
Δ -5.5 vs last wk
796
mentions this week · conversation velocity
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Camp
Fall camp open — install + scrimmage cycle
ongoing
Kickoff
Season opener in 16 days
kickoff
"The Play"
— California fanbase · recurring line
Fanbase Signals
Cohort Divergence0 pctSpread between sub-fanbase cohorts in the Pulse window.
The Fever Year
Position = mood · width = volume · color = the kind of feeling
Inside the fanbase — all 12 corners
Cr/CFB
GGoogle News
CCampus paper
BBear Insider
BBluesky
YYouTube
One voice
+0.00whole-room sentiment · cool our read
Every cohort from the die-hards to the analytics crowd lands within 0.01 of each other — a rare consensus. The loudest voice in the room:
GGoogle NewsBeat · article
Cal Football 2026 Fall Camp Notebook: Day 1 - Write For California
news.google.com →How California fans actually talk real · top-upvoted
The crowd’s loudest take by upvotes — read for mood, not as a side. The cohort read is the measured part.
The room, end to end
skeptical
buying in
Boomers & Gen X−0.04
Media−0.05
Cohort sentiment is a source-weighted model read — never a quote pinned to a person.
What this fanbase keeps coming back to our read · topic model
Topics are model-labeled from Reddit — a rough signal of what this fanbase is circling right now.
1551 mentions · 6 sources · week 2026-01. Counts, sources and the divergence rank are measured (fact). Cohort labels and sentiment are a source-weighted model read (our read) — never a quote attributed to a person.
Belief checklight on evidence
~ our readCalifornia fans are split right down the middle, but it's more feel than fact right now.
backed by facts
the mood
✓ counted We read 821 posts from California fans this week.
Fanbase divided: 55% believers, 45% skeptics
Fan opinions split nearly 50/50 right now · See all divided fanbases →
Season storylines
Week 18
“It's either that or some crazy ass rule where other teams wins only count as 3/5ths of a win, but no one would go for that kind of insanity, right? ...Right?”— r/CFB
Week 4
“This game thread has been flagged for a false start! Nearly 200 yards of penalties between these two teams, what a mess of a game. Glad to see Cal pull it out though!”— r/CFB
Week 3
“This offense is a house of cards with an ineffective run game and inconsistent receivers. What made Wilcox think he can run a school for Coaches That Can't Head Coach Good without getting laughed out of the building”— r/CFB
Week 1
“What an unfortunate state college sports are in that a 18 year old can have a good first game and the blue blood programs all probably just highlighted and underlined his name for the offseason.”— r/CFB
Week 8
“Wilcox is one of the best "play to competition" coaches ever. Unfortunately he often blows those close games”— r/CFB
Rent free · r/cfb fan posts, last season
California lives rent-free in
share of each rival fanbase’s football posts that bring up California
Fanbase Health Index · California · high confidence
Fanbase Health Index · California · high confidenceGrowing (65)
DecliningStableGrowingSurging
On-Field — 7-6 (54% win rate)61
Volume — 3961 effective signal-N100
Cohort Engagement — Divergence 0.00 — quiet35
The Lexicon
308 posts and articles vs the field · 2025 season
jks
×293.2 the field
Signature — ≥10× the rest of college football
jks×293.2n=25
wilcox×766.3n=28
sdsu×27.8n=10
Characteristic — 3–10×
sack×6.0n=11
special×3.3n=11
might×3.3n=11
Mild — <3×
good×2.0n=32
pass×3.1n=11
kicker×2.9n=12
run×2.4n=18
“Honestly it’s a win to watch JKS play QB”
reddit/CFB · fan post, verbatim
Fanbase Voice
1,063 fan mentions
Doomers
vs the 81 highest-volume fanbases - 2025 season
Key stats — 2025 — FBS rank
Points/game#81 / 138 · 42nd pct25.3
Pts allowed/game#80 / 138 · 43rd pct27.2
Total yards/gm#81 / 136 · 41st pct357.8
Rush yards/gm#132 / 136 · 4th pct82.5
Pass yards/gm#22 / 136 · 85th pct275.3
Yards allowed/gm#73 / 136 · 47th pct361.9
Rush yds allowed/gm#86 / 136 · 38th pct156.5
Sacks#105 / 136 · 24th pct20
Interceptions#84 / 136 · 39th pct8
3rd-down conv#61 / 136 · 56th pct40.4%
All 98 stats
Offense / Defense
Total yards
Team4652357.8/gm5.23/play#81 / 136 · 41st pct#45 / 69 · 36th pct#12 / 17 · 35th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Opp4705361.9/gm5.55/play#73 / 136 · 47th pct#48 / 69 · 32nd pct#9 / 17 · 53rd pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Rush yards
Team107382.5/gm1.21/play#132 / 136 · 4th pct#68 / 69 · 3rd pct#16 / 17 · 12th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Opp2035156.5/gm2.40/play#86 / 136 · 38th pct#51 / 69 · 28th pct#13 / 17 · 29th pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct
Rush carries
Team38529.6/gm#117 / 136 · 15th pct#61 / 69 · 13th pct#15 / 17 · 18th pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct
Opp42732.8/gm#35 / 136 · 75th pct#27 / 69 · 62nd pct#7 / 17 · 65th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Rush TDs
Team211.6/gm#63 / 136 · 54th pct#35 / 69 · 51st pct#10 / 17 · 47th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Opp241.8/gm#98 / 136 · 29th pct#56 / 69 · 20th pct#13 / 17 · 29th pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct
Net pass yards
Team3579275.3/gm4.02/play#22 / 136 · 85th pct#16 / 69 · 78th pct#4 / 17 · 82nd pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Opp2670205.4/gm3.15/play#52 / 136 · 62nd pct#28 / 69 · 61st pct#4 / 17 · 82nd pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Pass attempts
Team50538.8/gm#10 / 136 · 93rd pct#5 / 69 · 94th pct#2 / 17 · 94th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Opp42032.3/gm#99 / 136 · 28th pct#47 / 69 · 33rd pct#9 / 17 · 53rd pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
Completions
Team32224.8/gm#11 / 136 · 93rd pct#5 / 69 · 94th pct#3 / 17 · 88th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Opp25919.9/gm#92 / 136 · 33rd pct#45 / 69 · 36th pct#8 / 17 · 59th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
Pass TDs
Team201.5/gm#57 / 136 · 59th pct#33 / 69 · 54th pct#7 / 17 · 65th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Opp141.1/gm#20 / 136 · 86th pct#15 / 69 · 80th pct#3 / 17 · 88th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Passer rating
Team133.2133.2#69 / 136 · 50th pct#41 / 69 · 42nd pct#11 / 17 · 41st pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Opp121.3121.3#30 / 136 · 79th pct#18 / 69 · 75th pct#4 / 17 · 82nd pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Interceptions thrown
Team100.8/gm#56 / 136 · 60th pct#23 / 69 · 68th pct#8 / 17 · 59th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Opp80.6/gm#44 / 136 · 68th pct#23 / 69 · 68th pct#8 / 17 · 59th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Sacks (def)
Team201.5/gm#105 / 136 · 24th pct#59 / 69 · 16th pct#13 / 17 · 29th pct#7 / 10 · 40th pct
Opp312.4/gm#111 / 136 · 19th pct#55 / 69 · 22nd pct#13 / 17 · 29th pct#5 / 10 · 60th pct
Tackles for loss
Team604.6/gm#100 / 136 · 27th pct#53 / 69 · 25th pct#13 / 17 · 29th pct#6 / 10 · 50th pct
Opp705.4/gm#83 / 136 · 40th pct#46 / 69 · 35th pct#11 / 17 · 41st pct#4 / 10 · 70th pct
First downs
Team25919.9/gm#69 / 136 · 50th pct#38 / 69 · 46th pct#10 / 17 · 47th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
Opp25519.6/gm#82 / 136 · 40th pct#47 / 69 · 33rd pct#11 / 17 · 41st pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
3rd-down conv
Team725.5/gm#50 / 136 · 64th pct#24 / 69 · 67th pct#5 / 17 · 76th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Opp755.8/gm#109 / 136 · 21st pct#59 / 69 · 16th pct#14 / 17 · 24th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
3rd-down att
Team17813.7/gm#42 / 136 · 70th pct#18 / 69 · 75th pct#6 / 17 · 71st pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
Opp18013.8/gm#75 / 136 · 46th pct#40 / 69 · 43rd pct#8 / 17 · 59th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
4th-down conv
Team120.9/gm#79 / 136 · 43rd pct#42 / 69 · 41st pct#11 / 17 · 41st pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
Opp120.9/gm#49 / 136 · 65th pct#23 / 69 · 68th pct#6 / 17 · 71st pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
4th-down att
Team231.8/gm#80 / 136 · 42nd pct#39 / 69 · 45th pct#10 / 17 · 47th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Opp191.5/gm#18 / 136 · 88th pct#12 / 69 · 84th pct#2 / 17 · 94th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Time of possession
Team393:0230:14/gm#51 / 136 · 63rd pct#25 / 69 · 65th pct#5 / 17 · 76th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Opp386:5829:46/gm#83 / 136 · 40th pct#41 / 69 · 42nd pct#8 / 17 · 59th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Kicking & Punting
Field goals#92 / 135 · 33rd pct14/19 (73.7%)
Extra points39/39
Punting#107 / 136 · 22nd pct41.5 avg · 59 punts
Turnovers & special teams
Turnovers
Team161.2/gm#65 / 136 · 53rd pct#26 / 69 · 64th pct#9 / 17 · 53rd pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Opp131.0/gm#32 / 136 · 77th pct#18 / 69 · 75th pct#6 / 17 · 71st pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Fumbles lost
Team60.5/gm#69 / 136 · 50th pct#28 / 69 · 61st pct#11 / 17 · 41st pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Opp50.4/gm#33 / 136 · 76th pct#16 / 69 · 78th pct#4 / 17 · 82nd pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
INT return TDs
Team00.0/gm#76 / 135 · 44th pct#39 / 69 · 45th pct#10 / 17 · 47th pct#8 / 11 · 36th pct
Opp20.2/gm#105 / 136 · 24th pct#57 / 69 · 19th pct#14 / 17 · 24th pct#8 / 10 · 30th pct
INT return yards
Team1078.2/gm#77 / 136 · 44th pct#39 / 69 · 45th pct#8 / 17 · 59th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Opp18714.4/gm#111 / 136 · 19th pct#58 / 69 · 17th pct#12 / 17 · 35th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Punt ret yds
Team25919.9/gm#20 / 136 · 86th pct#14 / 69 · 81st pct#5 / 17 · 76th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Opp1299.9/gm#81 / 136 · 41st pct#45 / 69 · 36th pct#10 / 17 · 47th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Punt ret TDs
Team00.0/gm#43 / 135 · 69th pct#23 / 69 · 68th pct#5 / 17 · 76th pct#1 / 9 · 100th pct
Opp00.0/gm#1 / 135 · 100th pct#1 / 69 · 100th pct#1 / 17 · 100th pct#1 / 11 · 100th pct
Kick ret yds
Team36428.0/gm#85 / 136 · 38th pct#37 / 69 · 48th pct#11 / 17 · 41st pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct
Opp71254.8/gm#125 / 136 · 9th pct#65 / 69 · 7th pct#17 / 17 · 6th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
Kick ret TDs
Team00.0/gm#40 / 136 · 71st pct#17 / 69 · 77th pct#4 / 17 · 82nd pct#6 / 11 · 55th pct
Opp00.0/gm#1 / 135 · 100th pct#1 / 69 · 100th pct#1 / 17 · 100th pct#1 / 9 · 100th pct
Penalty yards
Team84064.6/gm#17 / 136 · 88th pct#8 / 69 · 90th pct#6 / 17 · 71st pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Opp81762.8/gm#113 / 136 · 18th pct#63 / 69 · 10th pct#14 / 17 · 24th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
Other
Penalties#8 / 136 · 95th pct#3 / 69 · 97th pct#2 / 17 · 94th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct1017.8/gm
Punt returns#17 / 136 · 88th pct#10 / 69 · 87th pct#3 / 17 · 88th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct241.8/gm
H1 epa per play opponent#43 / 167 · 75th pct#26 / 69 · 64th pct#8 / 17 · 59th pct0.10.0/gm
Fourth down go rate#45 / 138 · 68th pct#19 / 69 · 74th pct#5 / 17 · 76th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct0.40.0/gm
Fumbles rec (def)#46 / 136 · 67th pct#29 / 69 · 59th pct#5 / 17 · 76th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct60.5/gm
H1 epa per play#61 / 162 · 63rd pct#43 / 69 · 39th pct#12 / 17 · 35th pct0.20.0/gm
Passes intercepted opponent#64 / 136 · 54th pct#38 / 69 · 46th pct#8 / 17 · 59th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct100.8/gm
First down pass rate#68 / 215 · 69th pct#20 / 69 · 72nd pct#7 / 17 · 65th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct0.50.0/gm
Recruiting rating#69 / 138 · 51st pct#64 / 69 · 9th pct#17 / 17 · 6th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct180.413.9/gm
Fumbles recovered#70 / 136 · 49th pct#33 / 69 · 54th pct#7 / 17 · 65th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct60.5/gm
H2 epa per play opponent#72 / 143 · 50th pct#38 / 69 · 46th pct#10 / 17 · 47th pct0.20.0/gm
Kick returns#75 / 136 · 46th pct#31 / 69 · 57th pct#7 / 17 · 65th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct201.5/gm
Interceptions (def)#84 / 136 · 39th pct#44 / 69 · 38th pct#10 / 17 · 47th pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct80.6/gm
H2 epa per play#97 / 142 · 32nd pct#50 / 69 · 29th pct#9 / 17 · 53rd pct0.10.0/gm
Red zone pass rate#97 / 154 · 38th pct#44 / 69 · 38th pct#12 / 17 · 35th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct0.30.0/gm
Punt ret (opp)#100 / 136 · 27th pct#59 / 69 · 16th pct#15 / 17 · 18th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct191.5/gm
Penalties (opp)#121 / 136 · 12th pct#65 / 69 · 7th pct#15 / 17 · 18th pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct967.4/gm
Kick ret (opp)#129 / 136 · 6th pct#67 / 69 · 4th pct#17 / 17 · 6th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct372.8/gm
Situational
3rd-down conversion
Off40.4%#61 / 136 · 56th pct#36 / 69 · 49th pct#7 / 17 · 65th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Def41.7%#97 / 136 · 29th pct#54 / 69 · 23rd pct#12 / 17 · 35th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
4th-down conversion
Off52.2%#83 / 136 · 40th pct#49 / 69 · 30th pct#11 / 17 · 41st pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Def63.2%#112 / 136 · 18th pct#53 / 69 · 25th pct#13 / 17 · 29th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Turnover margin#86 / 136 · 38th pct#46 / 69 · 35th pct#9 / 17 · 53rd pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct-0.23/gm
Sack rate (def)#113 / 136 · 18th pct#61 / 69 · 13th pct#15 / 17 · 18th pct#8 / 10 · 30th pct4.8%
Red Zone & Drive Efficiency (2014– , play-by-play derived)
Red zone trips
Team463.5/gm#58 / 167 · 66th pct#35 / 69 · 51st pct#7 / 17 · 65th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Opp393.0/gm#78 / 166 · 54th pct#29 / 69 · 59th pct#7 / 17 · 65th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Red zone score %
Team73.9%73.9%#113 / 167 · 33rd pct#58 / 69 · 17th pct#14 / 17 · 24th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Opp79.5%79.5%#92 / 166 · 45th pct#45 / 69 · 36th pct#10 / 17 · 47th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Points / drive
Team1.80.1/gm#97 / 167 · 43rd pct#56 / 69 · 20th pct#13 / 17 · 29th pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct
Opp1.80.1/gm#65 / 166 · 61st pct#36 / 69 · 49th pct#8 / 17 · 59th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Yards / drive
Team39.43.0/gm#94 / 167 · 44th pct#55 / 69 · 22nd pct#12 / 17 · 35th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Opp40.93.1/gm#81 / 166 · 52nd pct#40 / 69 · 43rd pct#9 / 17 · 53rd pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Plays / drive
Team6.80.5/gm#42 / 167 · 75th pct#22 / 69 · 70th pct#5 / 17 · 76th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Opp6.50.5/gm#72 / 166 · 57th pct#29 / 69 · 59th pct#9 / 17 · 53rd pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Three-and-out rate
Team11.6%11.6%#53 / 167 · 69th pct#26 / 69 · 64th pct#7 / 17 · 65th pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct
Opp18.4%18.4%#21 / 166 · 88th pct#11 / 69 · 86th pct#4 / 17 · 82nd pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Scheme Identity (2014– , play-by-play derived)
Rush rate over expected#139 / 145 · 5th pct#68 / 69 · 3rd pct#17 / 17 · 6th pct-11.2%-11.2%
Havoc rate
Team16.1%16.1%#64 / 140 · 55th pct#39 / 69 · 45th pct#9 / 17 · 53rd pct
Opp17.2%17.2%#105 / 140 · 26th pct#55 / 69 · 22nd pct#15 / 17 · 18th pct
Standard-downs success
Team45.0%45.0%#112 / 154 · 28th pct#59 / 69 · 16th pct#13 / 17 · 29th pct
Opp49.2%49.2%#91 / 172 · 48th pct#43 / 69 · 39th pct#13 / 17 · 29th pct
Passing-downs success
Team32.7%32.7%#51 / 153 · 67th pct#27 / 69 · 62nd pct#5 / 17 · 76th pct
Opp26.5%26.5%#21 / 149 · 87th pct#13 / 69 · 83rd pct#4 / 17 · 82nd pct
Line yards / carry
Team2.62.6#126 / 143 · 13th pct#65 / 69 · 7th pct#17 / 17 · 6th pct
Opp3.33.3#126 / 155 · 19th pct#63 / 69 · 10th pct#17 / 17 · 6th pct
Stuff rate
Team18.1%18.1%#65 / 143 · 55th pct#36 / 69 · 49th pct#10 / 17 · 47th pct
Opp12.9%12.9%#143 / 155 · 8th pct#68 / 69 · 3rd pct#17 / 17 · 6th pct
Power success rate
Team67.4%67.4%#84 / 137 · 39th pct#44 / 69 · 38th pct#11 / 17 · 41st pct
Opp86.5%86.5%#133 / 141 · 6th pct#65 / 69 · 7th pct#16 / 17 · 12th pct
Efficiency
Completion %
Off63.8%#50 / 136 · 64th pct#30 / 69 · 58th pct#10 / 17 · 47th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Def61.7%#66 / 136 · 52nd pct#31 / 69 · 57th pct#7 / 17 · 65th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Yards / attempt
Off7.1#73 / 136 · 47th pct#44 / 69 · 38th pct#11 / 17 · 41st pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Def6.4#25 / 136 · 82nd pct#16 / 69 · 78th pct#4 / 17 · 82nd pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Yards / completion
Off11.1#86 / 136 · 38th pct#49 / 69 · 30th pct#13 / 17 · 29th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
Def10.3#12 / 136 · 92nd pct#8 / 69 · 90th pct#3 / 17 · 88th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Yards / carry#133 / 136 · 3rd pct#68 / 69 · 3rd pct#16 / 17 · 12th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct2.8
Yards / play#105 / 136 · 24th pct#59 / 69 · 16th pct#14 / 17 · 24th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct5.23
Scoring margin#89 / 136 · 35th pct#53 / 69 · 25th pct#12 / 17 · 35th pct#8 / 11 · 36th pct-1.8/gm
FBS rankings · 2025 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
Player stats — 2025 season
Quarterbacks
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pocket Passer · +0.20 EPA/play | 3 | 13 | 315 / 491 | 64.2 | 3446 #18 FBS | 7.0 | 18 #49 FBS | 9 | 131.5 | 53.8 | 6.2 | 5.2 | |
Yards by week → Pocket PasserBalanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 97 of 183 QBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / attempt7.5 bottom 45th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Rush yards / carry-2.0 bottom 5th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele's full player page | |||||||||||||
Running Backs
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Stuff% | 10+% | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Back · +0.02 EPA/play | 1 | 13 | 233 | 952 #51 FBS | 4.1 | 13 #25 FBS | 33 | 16.5 | 13.5 | 14.8 | 7.9 | 9.4% (43/457) | |
Yards by week → Balanced BackPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. The most common profile in its group this season — 186 of 349 classified this way. Played in 13 of 21 games this season · junior View Kendrick Raphael's full player page | |||||||||||||
| -0.13 EPA/play | 11 | 7 | 33 | 108 | 3.3 | 2 | 12 | 4.1 | 9.7 | — | — | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||||
| -0.03 EPA/play | 5 | 5 | 23 | 98 | 4.3 | 1 | 22 | 4.2 | 2.9 | — | — | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||||
Receivers
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slot Technician · +0.37 EPA/play | 21 | 13 | 107 | 1022 #18 FBS | 9.6 | 6 #62 FBS | 41 | 21.8 | 23.7 | 32.4% (148/457) | |
Yards by week → Slot TechnicianRuns precise routes in tight quarters. Volume player who keeps chains moving. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. The rare part: the passing game runs through him — and every touch moves the offense, too 97 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Reception volume107 100th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Total EPA (college ability)54.4 97th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions — the part the label misses Trait fingerprint Plays like our readTwo-star recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile our readBreakout: his CFB Index score now sits at the 98th percentile among FBS WRs, up from the 65th | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.65 EPA/play | 7 | 12 | 55 | 788 #72 FBS | 14.3 | 1 | 35 | 12.3 | 18.1 | 19.0% (87/457) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception14.3 59th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate1.8% bottom 14th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like our readUnranked recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile our readAscending: his CFB Index score now sits at the 85th percentile among FBS WRs, up from the 45th | |||||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.43 EPA/play | 85 | 10 | 35 | 387 | 11.1 | 4 | 51 | 11.5 | 8.7 | 10.3% (47/457) | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. The most common profile in its group this season — 177 of 223 classified this way. Played in 10 of 21 games this season · sophomore our readUnranked recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.76 EPA/play | 18 | 10 | 20 | 273 | 13.7 | 1 | 39 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 4.8% (22/457) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception11.8 bottom 34th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.8 86th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Quaron Adams's full player page | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.77 EPA/play | 4 | 10 | 22 | 267 | 12.1 | 2 | 38 | 8.4 | 8 | 6.8% (31/457) | |
Yards by week → Possession Receiver· Money-downReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. lives on the sticks and moves the chains 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception14.3 59th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.8 87th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jordan King's full player page | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.32 EPA/play | 15 | 6 | 17 | 202 | 11.9 | 0 | 35 | 6.6 | 5.4 | 4.4% (20/457) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception10.6 bottom 24th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate0.0% bottom 8th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Mark Hamper's full player page | |||||||||||
| +0.77 EPA/play | 81 | 4 | 7 | 94 | 13.4 | 2 | 26 | 3.8 | 2.6 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
| +0.79 EPA/play | 82 | 7 | 7 | 85 | 12.1 | 1 | 23 | 2.8 | 2.7 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
Defensive Line
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nose Anchor | 47 | 13 | 56 | 19 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0 |
Nose AnchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 152 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight320 lb 90th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Aidan Keanaaina's full player page | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 88 | 12 | 42 | 13 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 |
Nose AnchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. 152 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight305 lb 78th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View T.J. Bollers's full player page | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 96 | 11 | 12 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Nose AnchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. 152 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight305 lb 78th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readBreakout: his CFB Index score climbed from the 14th percentile to the 83rd among FBS IDLs | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 94 | 10 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Nose AnchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. 152 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight335 lb 97th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Stanley McKenzie's full player page | |||||||
| 55 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 99 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
Linebackers
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Linebacker | — | 12 | 97 | 42 | 55 | 12 #51 FBS | 3 | 4 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 362 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume97 95th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles PD rate4.1% 71th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score moved from the 66th to 90th percentile among FBS LBs | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 41 | 13 | 91 | 38 | 53 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 362 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume91 92th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate5.5% bottom 29th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Luke Ferrelli's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 46 | 11 | 41 | 21 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. The most common profile in its group this season — 362 of 660 classified this way. Played in 11 of 21 games this season · sophomore · 3-star, 2024 class View Aaron Hampton's full player page | |||||||||
| Thumper | 3 | 13 | 39 | 16 | 23 | 10.5 | 4.5 | 1 | 0 |
ThumperDownhill striker who fills the run lane and blitzes off the edge. 97 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate26.9% 99th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Sack rate11.5% 96th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View T.J. Bush's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 7 | 11 | 38 | 14 | 24 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. The most common profile in its group this season — 362 of 660 classified this way. Played in 11 of 21 games this season · junior our readFading: his CFB Index score now sits at the 19th percentile among FBS LBs, up from the 62nd | |||||||||
| Thumper | 10 | 12 | 26 | 9 | 17 | 4.5 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
ThumperDownhill striker who fills the run lane and blitzes off the edge. 97 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate17.3% 87th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Sack rate11.5% 96th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like our readBreakout: his CFB Index score went from the 0th percentile among FBS LBs to the 57th | |||||||||
| Thumper | 16 | 9 | 24 | 10 | 14 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
ThumperDownhill striker who fills the run lane and blitzes off the edge. 97 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate20.8% 95th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Sack rate12.5% 98th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Chris Victor's full player page | |||||||||
| 43 | 4 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 1 | 0 | |
| 19 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 53 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Defensive Backs
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Box Safety | 2 | 11 | 62 | 3 | 0 | 2.5 | 0 |
Box SafetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 166 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume62 83th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Dru Polidore's full player page | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 5 | 13 | 47 | 12 #8 FBS | 5 #6 FBS | 1 | 0 |
Centerfielder· Takeaway threatSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. the kind of DB who takes it back the other way All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 133 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate25.5% 99th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like our readTwo-star recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile our readReinvented: changed shape entirely — Hybrid Nickel to Centerfielder, his CFB Index score went from the 41st percentile among FBS Ss to the 100th | |||||||
| Box Safety | 20 | 11 | 47 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
Box SafetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 166 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume47 59th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Cameron Sidney's full player page | |||||||
| Box Safety | 14 | 10 | 44 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Box SafetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 166 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume44 53th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Aiden Manutai's full player page | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 4 | 13 | 42 | 13 #2 FBS | 0 | 0.5 | 0 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 133 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate31.0% 100th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Brent Austin's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 8 | 12 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 419 of 801 classified this way. Played in 12 of 21 games this season · sophomore View Jasiah Wagoner's full player page | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 23 | 4 | 24 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 133 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate12.5% 73th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Isaiah Crosby's full player page | |||||||
| 6 | 8 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 17 | 8 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 24 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Kicking
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 91 | 13 | 10/13 | 76.9 | 39/39 | 69 | 45 |
| 27 | 6 | 4/6 | 66.7 | 0/0 | 12 | 49 |
Punting
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 9 | 11 | 39 | 1620 | 41.5 | 60 | 12 | 3 |
| 40 | 5 | 20 | 827 | 41.4 | 54 | 4 | 0 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
Kick Returns
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slot Technician · +0.37 EPA/play | 21 | 13 | 18 | 363 | 20.2 | 0 | 36 |
Punt Returns
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slot Technician · +0.37 EPA/play | 21 | 13 | 22 | 259 | 11.8 | 0 | 34 |
2025 stat leaders
final
2025 stat leaders
1.
Cade Uluave
LB
97.0 tot (def)
2.
Luke Ferrelli
LB
91.0 tot (def)
3.
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele
QB
3,446 yds (pass)
4.
Jacob De Jesus
WR
1,022 yds (rec)
5.
Trond Grizzell
WR
788 yds (rec)
Roster
2025
22
players carry a qualified CFB Index Score this season.
Hezekiah Masses
CB
#3 of 364
Jacob De Jesus
WR
#14 of 485
Cade Uluave
LB
#67 of 583
Trond Grizzell
WR
#84 of 485
T.J. Bush
LB
#117 of 583
Mason Mini
TE
#39 of 156
+16 more
California · 2025 schedule & results7-6Hard slateAverage opponent win rate 50% · 3 AP top-25 opponents on the schedule. 2 ranked wins banked (time-of-game rank).
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 31 | #63 | #89 | -3 | @Oregon State | W 34–15 123 | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 6 | #65 | #217 | -44.5 | Texas Southern | W 35–3 131 | 2-0 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 14 | #62 | #21 | +3.5 | Minnesota | W 27–14 132 | 3-0 | 0-0 |
| 4 | Sep 21 | #59 | #96 | -13.5 | @San Diego State | L 0–34 121 | 3-1 | 0-0 |
| 5 | Sep 27 | #65 | #64 | +6.5 | @Boston College | W 28–24 128 | 4-1 | 1-0 |
| 6 | Oct 5 | #61 | #54 | +3.5 | Duke | L 21–45 128 | 4-2 | 1-1 |
| 8 | Oct 18 | #80 | #140 | -8.5 | North Carolina | W 21–18 135 | 5-2 | 2-1 |
| 9 | Oct 24 | #82 | #77 | +6 | @Virginia Tech | L 34–42 143 | 5-3 | 2-2 |
| 10 | Nov 1 | #86 | #52 | +6.5 | Virginia | L 21–31 137 | 5-4 | 2-3 |
| 11 | Nov 9 | #94 | #26 | +18 | @LouisvilleTop 25 win | W 29–26 143 | 6-4 | 3-3 |
| 13 | Nov 23 | #87 | #120 | -4.5 | @Stanford | L 10–31 133 | 6-5 | 3-4 |
| 14 | Nov 30 | #108 | #8 | +13.5 | SMUTop 25 win | W 38–35 144 | 7-5 | 4-4 |
| Bowl Season | ||||||||
| 17 | Dec 25 | #90 | #87 | +1.5 | @Hawai'i | L 31–35 | 7-6 | 4-4 |
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)▼
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 25 | @Hawai'i | L 31–35 | — | — | — | +0.440 | 55.1% | 118.6% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Nov 30 | SMU | W 38–35 | 452 | 0 | 36:56 | +0.298 | 46.2% | 114.1% | Defense's roughest night |
| Nov 23 | @Stanford | L 10–31 | 297 | 3 | 33:40 | -0.208 | 28.6% | 138.5% | |
| Nov 9 | @Louisville | W 29–26 | 427 | 0 | 29:52 | +0.203 | 41.9% | 120.6% | One-score win |
| Nov 1 | Virginia | L 21–31 | 263 | 2 | 24:34 | -0.040 | 36.7% | 108.6% | |
| Oct 24 | @Virginia Tech | L 34–42 | 325 | 0 | 27:46 | +0.222 | 37.7% | 134.8% | One-score loss |
| Oct 18 | North Carolina | W 21–18 | 294 | 0 | 28:50 | +0.143 | 38.0% | 122.0% | One-score win |
| Oct 5 | Duke | L 21–45 | 286 | 4 | 28:57 | +0.174 | 36.1% | 155.9% | Most explosive |
| Sep 27 | @Boston College | W 28–24 | 375 | 1 | 35:15 | +0.179 | 46.8% | 110.7% | One-score win |
| Sep 21 | @San Diego State | L 0–34 | 289 | 3 | 29:42 | -0.313 | 30.6% | 129.1% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 14 | Minnesota | W 27–14 | 340 | 0 | 26:04 | +0.168 | 42.4% | 144.0% | |
| Sep 6 | Texas Southern | W 35–3 | 467 | 2 | 31:38 | +0.191 | 47.1% | 110.7% | Best defensive stand |
| Aug 31 | @Oregon State | W 34–15 | 356 | 0 | 30:08 | +0.160 | 40.3% | 133.7% | |
| Season average (13 games) | 348 | 1.2 | +0.124 | 40.6% | 126.2% | ||||
How They Play · 2025
How They Play · 2025California fields a limited pass-first offense behind a solid, bend-don't-break defense.
Opponent-adjusted percentiles vs all FBS. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Team identity · competitive snaps only
How California actually scores
28th percentile quality, 48th percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 86th | 11th |
| Akron | 12th | 89th |
| Alabama | 58th | 17th |
| App State | 35th | 47th |
| Arizona | 64th | 37th |
| Arizona State | 41st | 62nd |
| Arkansas | 90th | 12th |
| Arkansas State | 17th | 66th |
| Army | 57th | 43rd |
| Auburn | 47th | 53rd |
| BYU | 78th | 19th |
| Baylor | 69th | 25th |
| Boise State | 66th | 20th |
| Boston College | 37th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 2nd | 98th |
| Buffalo | 11th | 88th |
| California | 28th | 48th |
| Central Michigan | 52nd | 64th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 16th |
| Clemson | 51st | 48th |
| Coastal Carolina | 17th | 83rd |
| Colorado | 18th | 84th |
| Colorado State | 16th | 83rd |
| Delaware | 38th | 58th |
| Duke | 80th | 14th |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 36th |
| Eastern Michigan | 49th | 42nd |
| Florida | 30th | 67th |
| Florida Atlantic | 62nd | 59th |
| Florida International | 42nd | 50th |
| Florida State | 83rd | 32nd |
| Fresno State | 26th | 73rd |
| Georgia | 81st | 3rd |
| Georgia Southern | 73rd | 21st |
| Georgia State | 36th | 70th |
| Georgia Tech | 84th | 5th |
| Hawai'i | 64th | 41st |
| Houston | 27th | 65th |
| Illinois | 75th | 26th |
| Indiana | 95th | 1st |
| Iowa | 44th | 40th |
| Iowa State | 68th | 22nd |
| Jacksonville State | 54th | 38th |
| James Madison | 65th | 44th |
| Kansas | 85th | 28th |
| Kansas State | 71st | 49th |
| Kennesaw State | 56th | 30th |
| Kent State | 21st | 86th |
| Kentucky | 15th | 85th |
| LSU | 14th | 81st |
| Liberty | 43rd | 56th |
| Louisiana | 19th | 73rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 39th | 61st |
| Louisville | 48th | 64th |
| Marshall | 55th | 39th |
| Maryland | 30th | 74th |
| Memphis | 80th | 24th |
| Miami | 76th | 5th |
| Miami (OH) | 34th | 67th |
| Michigan | 67th | 33rd |
| Michigan State | 27th | 75th |
| Middle Tennessee | 39th | 52nd |
| Minnesota | 29th | 77th |
| Mississippi State | 22nd | 77th |
| Missouri | 61st | 30th |
| Missouri State | 55th | 46th |
| NC State | 86th | 23rd |
| Navy | 94th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 48th | 57th |
| Nevada | 3rd | 97th |
| New Mexico | 58th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 9th | 87th |
| North Carolina | 13th | 89th |
| North Texas | 98th | 7th |
| Northern Illinois | 8th | 92nd |
| Northwestern | 52nd | 36th |
| Notre Dame | 99th | 20th |
| Ohio | 67th | 18th |
| Ohio State | 93rd | 4th |
| Oklahoma | 20th | 80th |
| Oklahoma State | 5th | 95th |
| Old Dominion | 83rd | 45th |
| Ole Miss | 89th | 2nd |
| Oregon | 91st | 10th |
| Oregon State | 2nd | 98th |
| Penn State | 73rd | 33rd |
| Pittsburgh | 60th | 39th |
| Purdue | 25th | 78th |
| Rice | 6th | 94th |
| Rutgers | 70th | 27th |
| SMU | 74th | 42nd |
| Sam Houston | 4th | 96th |
| San Diego State | 24th | 76th |
| San José State | 45th | 69th |
| South Alabama | 36th | 58th |
| South Carolina | 23rd | 86th |
| South Florida | 87th | 23rd |
| Southern Miss | 40th | 55th |
| Stanford | 10th | 90th |
| Syracuse | 5th | 95th |
| TCU | 72nd | 35th |
| Temple | 70th | 34th |
| Tennessee | 96th | 11th |
| Texas | 45th | 55th |
| Texas A&M | 82nd | 14th |
| Texas State | 92nd | 8th |
| Texas Tech | 77th | 31st |
| Toledo | 50th | 61st |
| Troy | 14th | 80th |
| Tulane | 79th | 15th |
| Tulsa | 20th | 70th |
| UAB | 61st | 45th |
| UCF | 33rd | 82nd |
| UCLA | 23rd | 79th |
| UConn | 95th | 13th |
| UL Monroe | 11th | 92nd |
| UNLV | 88th | 9th |
| USC | 98th | 2nd |
| UTEP | 1st | 99th |
| UTSA | 77th | 51st |
| Utah | 97th | 6th |
| Utah State | 46th | 63rd |
| Vanderbilt | 100th | 0th |
| Virginia | 59th | 27th |
| Virginia Tech | 32nd | 71st |
| Wake Forest | 42nd | 72nd |
| Washington | 92nd | 8th |
| Washington State | 33rd | 52nd |
| West Virginia | 7th | 93rd |
| Western Kentucky | 53rd | 29th |
| Western Michigan | 31st | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 0th | 100th |
| Wyoming | 8th | 91st |
Fourth-quarter reliability, corrected
California's 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 24th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it climbs to the 37th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
Does California hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?
25th percentile success on standard downs, 66th on passing downs — a 41-point gap between the two.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 82nd | 69th |
| Akron | 20th | 36th |
| Alabama | 47th | 76th |
| App State | 41st | 80th |
| Arizona | 54th | 54th |
| Arizona State | 40th | 37th |
| Arkansas | 90th | 97th |
| Arkansas State | 51st | 40th |
| Army | 37th | 44th |
| Auburn | 73rd | 24th |
| Austin Peay | 56th | 13th |
| BYU | 91st | 46th |
| Ball State | 5th | 3rd |
| Baylor | 70th | 77th |
| Boise State | 42nd | 63rd |
| Boston College | 56th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 10th | 17th |
| Bryant | 7th | 2nd |
| Buffalo | 29th | 20th |
| California | 25th | 66th |
| Central Michigan | 57th | 11th |
| Charlotte | 7th | 7th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 65th |
| Clemson | 49th | 34th |
| Coastal Carolina | 16th | 22nd |
| Colorado | 8th | 48th |
| Colorado State | 29th | 35th |
| Delaware | 66th | 31st |
| Duke | 82nd | 63rd |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 91st |
| Eastern Michigan | 46th | 67th |
| Florida | 52nd | 45th |
| Florida Atlantic | 44th | 61st |
| Florida International | 50th | 26th |
| Florida State | 65th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 22nd | 71st |
| Georgia | 95th | 69th |
| Georgia Southern | 64th | 84th |
| Georgia State | 22nd | 75th |
| Georgia Tech | 92nd | 89th |
| Hawai'i | 33rd | 87th |
| Houston | 61st | 29th |
| Idaho | 30th | 78th |
| Idaho State | 93rd | 14th |
| Illinois | 79th | 95th |
| Indiana | 97th | 98th |
| Iowa | 74th | 19th |
| Iowa State | 80th | 58th |
| Jacksonville State | 59th | 56th |
| James Madison | 77th | 52nd |
| Kansas | 99th | 82nd |
| Kansas State | 37th | 59th |
| Kennesaw State | 44th | 67th |
| Kent State | 15th | 5th |
| Kentucky | 62nd | 29th |
| LSU | 18th | 52nd |
| Lafayette | 0th | 12th |
| Liberty | 65th | 53rd |
| Lindenwood | 4th | 1st |
| Long Island University | 24th | 78th |
| Louisiana | 24th | 23rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 41st | 24th |
| Louisville | 84th | 32nd |
| Maine | 3rd | 18th |
| Marshall | 71st | 62nd |
| Maryland | 11th | 86th |
| Massachusetts | 5th | 9th |
| Memphis | 75th | 68th |
| Merrimack | 1st | 83rd |
| Miami | 80th | 64th |
| Miami (OH) | 33rd | 39th |
| Michigan | 73rd | 74th |
| Michigan State | 48th | 39th |
| Middle Tennessee | 69th | 47th |
| Minnesota | 35th | 33rd |
| Mississippi State | 52nd | 35th |
| Missouri | 76th | 50th |
| Missouri State | 32nd | 50th |
| Murray State | 1st | 6th |
| NC State | 58th | 71st |
| Navy | 95th | 72nd |
| Nebraska | 78th | 51st |
| Nevada | 17th | 16th |
| New Mexico | 38th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 16th | 33rd |
| North Carolina | 14th | 30th |
| North Texas | 100th | 97th |
| Northern Illinois | 9th | 5th |
| Northwestern | 48th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 88th | 99th |
| Ohio | 69th | 76th |
| Ohio State | 99th | 99th |
| Oklahoma | 39th | 41st |
| Oklahoma State | 14th | 7th |
| Old Dominion | 72nd | 79th |
| Ole Miss | 83rd | 95th |
| Oregon | 93rd | 55th |
| Oregon State | 54th | 25th |
| Penn State | 76th | 73rd |
| Pittsburgh | 35th | 56th |
| Purdue | 46th | 88th |
| Rice | 20th | 0th |
| Rutgers | 71st | 84th |
| SMU | 50th | 57th |
| Sam Houston | 26th | 4th |
| San Diego State | 84th | 1st |
| San José State | 68th | 70th |
| South Alabama | 53rd | 28th |
| South Carolina | 31st | 8th |
| South Carolina State | 10th | 3rd |
| South Florida | 86th | 46th |
| Southern Miss | 27th | 38th |
| Stanford | 12th | 12th |
| Syracuse | 19th | 10th |
| TCU | 63rd | 82nd |
| Temple | 85th | 22nd |
| Tennessee | 97th | 81st |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 88th | 59th |
| Texas State | 60th | 93rd |
| Texas Tech | 45th | 65th |
| Toledo | 67th | 42nd |
| Troy | 18th | 27th |
| Tulane | 81st | 86th |
| Tulsa | 43rd | 43rd |
| UAB | 34th | 94th |
| UCF | 39th | 20th |
| UCLA | 28th | 48th |
| UConn | 96th | 37th |
| UL Monroe | 13th | 14th |
| UNLV | 78th | 85th |
| USC | 94th | 90th |
| UT Martin | 2nd | 41st |
| UTEP | 3rd | 10th |
| UTSA | 67th | 92nd |
| Utah | 87th | 96th |
| Utah State | 31st | 49th |
| Vanderbilt | 90th | 100th |
| Virginia | 36th | 73rd |
| Virginia Tech | 59th | 21st |
| Wake Forest | 21st | 31st |
| Washington | 98th | 93rd |
| Washington State | 61st | 44th |
| West Virginia | 12th | 18th |
| Western Kentucky | 55th | 80th |
| Western Michigan | 86th | 16th |
| Wisconsin | 6th | 27th |
| Wyoming | 23rd | 15th |
Halftime identity
California by half
1st-half offense ranks 63rd percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 32nd — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
Schedule mirage
How much of California's number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.12; 68th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.05. The widest gap came in week 2: 0.18 raw vs. 0.03 adjusted.
California reads strongest in explosive plays allowed (top 13%) and passing epa allowed (top 22%); the crux lives in rushing epa, where California sits at the 2nd percentile.
offense · strengths lead
defense · higher bar = harder to play against
hidden math · special situations
ELITE · 90+STRONG · 70+AVERAGE · 40-70CONCERN · 10-40BOTTOM · <10
Most Similar Programs · California
Most Similar Programs · CaliforniaReads Like
AkronTier 3 · Prestige T3 · Similarly-sized rosters up frontApp StateTier 3 · Prestige T3 · Similarly-sized rosters up frontArizonaTier 3 · Prestige T3 · Similarly-sized rosters up front
Static-attribute similarity across tier, archetype, conference, and voice. Not a prediction — a calibration.
Home-Field Advantage · California · 2018-present
Strong
57% home win rate vs 38% on the road. margin runs +7.2 better at home. California Memorial Stadium seats 62,467, averaging 61% full (37,939 attendance, 26 games reported).
Home27-20Away16-26
Positional competition · RB room
The carries are split. The job isn’t.
Kendrick Raphael and LJ Johnson Jr. split the carries (232/265 vs 33/265) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
Kendrick RaphaelLJ Johnson Jr.
Carries
the baseline -- every row below is tested against this split, not a flat 50/50
Inside the 5
shared -- dots touch, this room really is a committee here
Q4, leading (competitive)
shared -- dots touch, this room really is a committee here
Targets
shared -- dots touch, this room really is a committee here
Top-5-carry share
concentration alone -- EPA/carry doesn't corroborate, read with caution
Screened 4 claims, 0 survived, 4 falsified
Positional competition · WR/TE room
The targets are split. The job isn’t.
Jacob De Jesus (WR) and Mason Mini (TE) split the targets (147/193 vs 46/193) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
Jacob De JesusMason Mini
Targets
the baseline -- every row below is tested against this split, not a flat 50/50
3rd-down targets
shared -- dots touch, this room really is a committee here
Inside the 10
shared -- dots touch, this room really is a committee here
Garbage-time share
shared -- dots touch, this room really is a committee here
Top-5-catch share
concentration alone -- EPA/target doesn't corroborate, read with caution
Screened 4 claims, 0 survived, 4 falsified
What changed
California’s play-calling, before and after the change
Offense: Mike Bloesch (2024) → Bryan Harsin (2025)
The biggest shift: red-zone pass rate moved down 14 points. The rest held closer to steady.
1st-down pass rate
Red-zone pass rate
Defense: Peter Sirmon (2021–2024) → co-Vic So'oto / co-Terrence Brown (2025)
The biggest shift: red-zone pass rate moved down 12 points. The rest held closer to steady.
1st-down pass rate
Red-zone pass rate
Defensive identity · pass zones
What this defense gives up, by zone.
On short passes, California’s defense allows a completion rate below the FBS mean (64.6% vs 65.9% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 159-play sample) — mid-pack, 38 of 133 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball leaderboard here: at the defense level, most teams face well under 30 rich-feed deep targets all season — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess.
Screened 133 claims, 133 survived · 2025 only, in the 399 games with the detailed play-text feed; n=159 short-zone plays faced, raw rate 63.5%
Venue texture
65°F average kickoff temp; 4% of games had measurable precipitation; 9 mph average wind.
Based on 72 home games with weather data.
The CFP Era
12 seasons inside the CFP era, no bids yet — the era the program is still trying to break into.
TRAJECTORY · quality-score line · AP rank dotted · CFP bids marked · coach regimes ribboned
Program Quality
AP Rank (inverted)
CFP Appearance
California's 2014–2025 record is 67-75. The era is still being written; the CFP line is the one the program is arguing for.
All-Time Record
608-557-31
since 1899 · 111 seasons · .508 win rate
HOME
414-264-9
AWAY
180-280-21
NEUTRAL
14-13-1
1890s
1910s
1920s
1930s
1940s
1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
The program, in full — read the essay
California Memorial Stadium sits directly on the Hayward Fault, split by an earthquake fault line, with a view of the Bay. The Play — five laterals through the Stanford band in 1982 — is the most chaotic ending in college-football history. The Bears have spent the 43 years since trying to produce another moment that big, with a 7-6 record and a fired coach as the current score.
Cal's identity is a specific tension: the world's best public university fielding a football program that can't quite match the brain power. The Play owns a permanent slot in the sport's canon — November 20, 1982, Joe Starkey's call, five laterals, the Stanford band on the field, Kevin Moen running through a trombone player to score. It belongs to Berkeley, and so does the Joe Roth tribute, the No. 12 jersey retired in honor of a quarterback who played out his final season dying of cancer. The program carries a moral weight unusual in the sport. It also carries Aaron Rodgers' name, from a 2004 Jeff Tedford team that went 10-2 and climbed to No. 4 nationally before just missing a Rose Bowl. That's the modern high-water mark.
Tosh Lupoi — a Cal alum who spent years coaching defense at Oregon and Alabama — was hired as the 35th head coach after Justin Wilcox was fired following a 7-6 season and a Hawaii Bowl loss, closing a nine-year tenure at 48-55. The alum-homecoming framing matters here: Lupoi knows what Cal is trying to be, has seen what winning programs look like up close at Oregon and Alabama, and has a case to make that the football culture in Berkeley can change without the academic identity bending to meet it.
The 2026 question is whether a fresh staff and a winnable ACC schedule can finally turn a Power-conference seat into Power-conference results. Cal has spent two years adjusting to an ACC home that arrived when the Pac-12 collapsed. The schedule is new, the conference footprint is 2,500 miles from Berkeley, and Lupoi's first team needs to prove the homecoming is more than sentiment.
How they play
Bay Area football with a Berkeley conscience — the program's historical identity is improvisational and talent-driven, not scheme-dominant. Lupoi comes from defensive coordinator backgrounds at elite programs, so the expectation is a physical, schemed defense as the foundation, with offensive identity still taking shape under the new staff. Memorial Stadium's altitude and intimacy give it a genuine home-field texture. The fanbase's standard is clean, academically honest football that also wins; those two demands are always in negotiation.
Steady
California 2016–2025. Holding the line. The 10-year slope (+0.09 rungs / yr) doesn't tilt either way — the program lives at roughly Tier 2.
CFP Era · California
12 seasons on file
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
down middle peak CFP year
Season Standing · 2025 · 7-6
Season Standing · 2025 · 7-6Bowl eligible
California: 6+ wins, bowl access secured. The baseline of a successful FBS year.
R0R1R2R3R4R5R6R7R8R9
Sub-FBSBuildingBowlRankedContenderPlayoff
ACC Standing · 2025
8th in the ACC
California is 8th of 17 in the ACC at 4-4. The path to the title is steep — the focus is on bowl access and rivalry wins.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Duke | 7-2 |
| 2 | Virginia | 7-3 |
| 3 | Georgia Tech | 6-2 |
| 4 | Miami | 6-2 |
| 5 | Pittsburgh | 6-2 |
| 6 | SMU | 6-2 |
| 7 | NC State | 5-4 |
| 8 | California | 4-4 |
| 9 | Clemson | 4-4 |
| 10 | Louisville | 4-4 |
| 11 | Wake Forest | 4-4 |
| 12 | Stanford | 3-5 |
| 13 | Florida State | 2-6 |
| 14 | North Carolina | 2-6 |
| 15 | Virginia Tech | 2-6 |
| 16 | Boston College | 1-7 |
| 17 | Syracuse | 1-7 |
Coaching Era · California
Coaching Era · CaliforniaTosh Lupoi
Tosh Lupoi took over from Justin Wilcox for the 2026 season.
Era Tosh Lupoi · 2026–presentPrev: Justin Wilcox (2017–2025)OC: Jordan Somerville / co-Ike HilliardPrev OC: Bryan Harsin (2025)DC: co-Da'Von Brown / Michael HutchingsPrev DC: co-Vic So'oto / co-Terrence Brown (2025)
1
year · era
Rituals
Three gameday rituals — the ones outsiders never quite catch.
The Play (1982 Big Game)
since 1982
The 1982 Big Game's final kickoff return — 5 laterals + the Stanford band on the field + Kevin Moen running through them for the winning touchdown — is one of CFB's most-iconic individual moments. The Play is shown every Big Game; the band-on-field tackle is permanent visual canon. Stanford disputes the legality even today.
Joe Roth Tribute
since 1977
Joe Roth — Cal QB 1975-1976 — was diagnosed with terminal melanoma during his senior year + chose to keep playing through pain rather than tell teammates. He died March 1977. Roth's #12 jersey is the only retired number in California football. The Joe Roth Memorial Game (annual) keeps the tribute permanent. CFB's most-storied terminally-ill-player narrative.
Memorial Stadium Fault Line
since 1923
California Memorial Stadium sits directly on the Hayward Fault. The 2010-2012 retrofit added base-isolation engineering + structural modernization. The stadium's seismic-fault setting is unique in CFB; visiting teams cite the location + Berkeley campus + Bay views as one of the more-unusual P5 stadium experiences.
Program memory
What this program never forgets
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
1976
Joe Roth's final season
Roth plays out a season while dying of cancer; his jersey is retired
Heartbreak
1982
The Play
Five laterals and a kickoff return through the Stanford band beat the Cardinal as time expires
Miracle
2004 No. 4 ranking
Rodgers' Bears climb to No. 4 and just miss a Rose Bowl bid
Moment of the Year · California · 2025
Moment of the Year · California · 2025Won 29-26 at Louisville
Week 11 of 2025. Beat a top-14 opponent on the road.
Bowl / Postseason Ledger
Bowl / Postseason LedgerRecent postseason (2015-2025): 2-4
Most recent: 2025 — loss 35-31 (away). Last 5 postseason: 1-4.
20252024202320192018
NFL Draft Pipeline
2022–2026
NFL Draft PipelineSteady
9 picks last 5 cycles. Reliable mid-tier pipeline.
9
picks · 0 R1
#85
Nohl Williams
Cornerback · 2025 · Kansas City · #1/327 final season
#106
Craig Woodson
Safety · 2025 · New England · #50/537 final season
#129
Teddye Buchanan
Linebacker · 2025 · Baltimore · #22/571 final season
#32 all-time · 24 first-round picksthe talent factory →
Unit lineage
California’s offense and defense, by coordinator
FBS-relative efficiency percentile per season (2014–2025), same population as the Coordinator Mirror board. Dashed vertical lines mark a coordinator change.
Offense2014–2025
2014–2015 · Tony Franklin2016 · Jake Spavital2017–2019 · Beau Baldwin2020–2022 · Bill Musgrave2023 · Jake Spavital2024 · Mike Bloesch2025 · Bryan Harsin
Hired for 2026: Jordan Somerville / co-Ike Hilliard — not yet reflected in on-field data.
Defense2014–2025
2014–2016 · Art Kaufman2017–2019 · Tim DeRuyter2020 · co-Tim DeRuyter / Peter Sirmon2021–2024 · Peter Sirmon2025 · co-Vic So'oto / co-Terrence Brown
Hired for 2026: co-Da'Von Brown / Michael Hutchings — not yet reflected in on-field data.
Elite (≥70th pct)AveragePoor (≤30th pct)
Chronicle Visuals
A heavy-turnover 2025: 22% returning (below average), with the qb room the biggest question.
The portal upgraded the CB room but opened a hole at LB.
1 player drafted in 2026; the reload runs through the portal and recruiting.
California sits where recruit talent and draft yield largely match.
Featured in The Canon
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[Postgame Thread] USC Defeats California 50-49
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