CFB Zeitgeist Score
25
Below cohort in the position cohort. Carried by tackles for loss at the 28th percentile.
Sterling Smithson
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
22 TACKLES · 0 SACKS
2026 Outlook
Returning to Missouri State for 2026
2026 Depth chart
Projected starter
Defensive line · Missouri State
Returning around him
- Transfer portal: +8 net (19 in / 11 out)
2026 Award watch
No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)
Missouri State · Last season: 7-6 · Talent rank #129 · 2026 recruiting class #133
DL · MISSOURI STATE · CONFERENCE USA
Sterling Smithson
- 4
- #90
- 6-3 | 325 lb
- Overland Park, KS
Heisman Heat
Awaiting
Not on the live Heisman board this week.
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
—
TOP DEFENSE AWARD
Nagurski
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 1 · 2-deepR02 · Deep reserve
Deep reserve. In the program, working up the two-deep.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
—
CFB
College
Missouri State
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No recruiting profile is on file for this player. | ||
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No transfer portal moves on file for this player. | ||
Heisman Lens
Where the model places this player relative to the rest of the Heisman field.
Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
No achievements unlocked yet this season.
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Sterling Smithson
Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal
The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.
Cohort divergence map
Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Sterling Smithson
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
Signature Story
Awaiting candidate metric
He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.
Signature Moment
No signature moment on the ledger yet.
Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the defensive totals stand
Through 12g
22Tackles
1Tackles for loss
0Sacks
Per game
2Tackles
0.1Tackles for loss
0Sacks
Projected (13g)
24Tackles
1.1Tackles for loss
0Sacks
To hit 80-tackle season (currently 22): needs 58/game over remaining 1.
To hit 100-tackle season (currently 22): needs 78/game over remaining 1.
To hit 6-sack season (currently 0): needs 6/game over remaining 1.
To hit 10-sack season (currently 0): needs 10/game over remaining 1.
Why this is a rare defensive case
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
Sterling Smithson is trying to climb the steepest award hill in college football: a defensive candidacy. The hook is the disruption profile on Missouri State's defense, with 0.0 sacks, 1.0 tackles for loss, and -- interceptions through the current loaded season. For a defender, the question is never just production; it is whether elite disruption and team context can become nationally undeniable.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
DEF season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Defensive contributor against FBS defenders.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Tackling & Disruption
TOT
22 62nd
SOLO
9 54th
TFL
1.0 59th
SACK
0.0 65th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 12 games
| Wk | Opp | TKL | SOLO | TFL | SACK | INT | PD | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | L 13-73@ USC | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 2 | W 21-20@ Marshall | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 3 | L 10-28vs SMU | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 4 | W 42-10vs UT Martin | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 5 | L 22-27vs Western Kentucky | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 7 | W 22-20@ Middle Tennessee | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 9 | W 24-17@ New Mexico State | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 11 | W 21-17@ Liberty | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | Season-high 4 tackles |
| Wk 12 | W 38-24vs UTEP | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 13 | L 34-41@ Kennesaw State | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 14 | L 30-42vs Louisiana Tech | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Bowl | L 28-34@ Arkansas State | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Total | 22 | 9 | 1.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2025Missouri State7-6HC: Ryan Beard · Balanced
| Season | Team | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Missouri State | 22 | 9 | 1.0 | 0.0 | -- | -- | -- |
| Career | 1 loaded season | 22 | 9 | 1.0 | 0.0 | -- | -- | -- |
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
TFL, sacks, and QB hurries are grouped together because defensive Heisman cases are usually built on visible havoc, not on tackle counts alone.
Pass breakups, interceptions, and forced fumbles matter because national awards voters respond to plays that change possessions and highlight reels.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Defense | Total tackles | 22 | #1869/4942 | 62nd pct | Volumevs FBS DEF |
| Defense | TFL | 1.0 | #2051/4972 | 59th pct | Disruptionvs FBS DEF |
| Defense | Sacks | 0.0 | #1762/4972 | 65th pct | Disruptionvs FBS DEF |
| Defense | Solo tackles | 9 | #2127/4584 | 54th pct | Volumevs FBS DEF |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
The Lombardi award tracker integrates per-week probability once a dedicated scraper for this award lands. Confirmed past winners and finalists for this player will surface here.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 12 games
Home vs Road
| TKL/g | TFL/g | SACK/g | PD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home5g | 1.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Road7g | 2.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Win vs Loss
| TKL/g | TFL/g | SACK/g | PD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins6g | 2.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Losses6g | 1.3 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
First half vs Second half
| TKL/g | TFL/g | SACK/g | PD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-77g | 1.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Weeks 8+5g | 2.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the DL cohort
25Below cohort
Concern: passes defended (17th).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · DL · 2025
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Sterling SmithsonMissouri StateTyler MartinMassachusetts· 57% simJonJon VaughnsUCLA· 51% simTahj Ra-ElPurdue· 49% sim
Tackles
Tackles for loss
Solo tackles
Sacks
QB hurries
Passes defended
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Nose Anchor
Two-gap space-eater who occupies blockers and frees the linebackers.
IDL
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Kenean Caldwell’s 2021 season.
Kenean Caldwell
90%match
#2
Taki Taimani
88%
#3
Xavier McIver
87%
#4
Aidan Keanaaina
All-ACC
87%
#5
Taki Taimani
86%
Matches Kenean on
Sack rate
Weight
Height
Not enough data yet for this comparison.
As a senior, his production profile tracks closest to Tymon Mitchell's senior season at TCU (2023).
Tymon Mitchell
93%match
#2
Christian Clayton
90%
#3
Taki Taimani
89%
#4
Domonique Orange
NFL Rd 3 · Pk 18
88%
#5
Aidan Keanaaina
All-ACC
87%
Matches Tymon on
Class year
Height
Sack rate
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Ryan Beard
Pass share
51.9%
433 pass / 401 run
Plays / game
64.2
13 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
13.0%
307 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Balanced.
Coaching Lineage · 2025
1 coach2025
Ryan Beard
Missouri State
Played his entire career under Ryan Beard.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownOverland Park, KS
Height6'3"
Weight325 lb
Class4
PositionDL
Jersey90
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamMissouri State
ConferenceConference USA
Joined2025
Career arc1 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This player hasn’t appeared on a Heisman ballot tracked by the model. | |||||||||
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Missouri State | Conference USA | DL | 4 | No. 90 | 6-3 | 325 lb | Overland Park, KS |