ACC · Dave Doeren, year 14 (96-72) · Carter-Finley Stadium · 58,000 · 56,919 avg in 2026
LastL 31–35 at Vanderbilt · Sat Sep 19 · Keenan Jackson 102 rec yds, 3 TD
Nextvs App State · Sat Sep 26 · 7:30 pm ET · Carter-Finley Stadium · NC State by 14 · series 6-0, won the last 6 · Game preview
Updated Tue Sep 22 · through week 3
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 | #44 | #56 | +4✗ | @Virginia | L 8–34 119 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| 2 | Sep 11 | #45 | #186 | -33.5✓ | Richmond | W 73–0 118 | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #47 | #44 | +3✗ | @Vanderbilt | L 31–35 137 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #37 | #94 | -14 | App State | |||
| 5 | Oct 3 | #37 | #43 | Louisville | ||||
| 6 | Oct 10 | Wake Forest | ||||||
| 8 | Oct 24 | @Stanford | ||||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | California | ||||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | Duke | ||||||
| 11 | Nov 14 | Syracuse | ||||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @Florida State | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | @North Carolina |
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19 | @Vanderbilt | L 31–35 | 446 | 3 | 35:49 | +0.034 | 38.8% | 135.3% | Defense's roughest night |
| Sep 11 | Richmond | W 73–0 | 734 | 1 | 37:43 | +0.758 | 67.6% | 144.5% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Aug 29 | @Virginia | L 8–34 | 168 | 2 | 21:57 | -0.144 | 31.4% | 53.4% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Season average (3 games) | 449 | 2.0 | +0.216 | 45.9% | 111.1% | ||||
NC State is the program that put Philip Rivers, Russell Wilson, and Mike Glennon through the same building — a quarterback factory whose ceiling has always been the ACC's upper-middle, never the top.
Fans are tired of being the forgotten school on Tobacco Road — the one nobody mentions when the cameras find Carolina blue and Duke's gym, even after producing more starting NFL quarterbacks than…
The season in chapters
What fans said
Real posts from the day of the game, chosen by community score · usernames not shown
What it is like to watch them2025 · 8-5 · last season
✓ measured from 13 games · ranks are among ACC teams the same season
Recent form · last 10 games · incl. 2025
Mixed. 5-5 over the last 10, and lost the last one.
The reads, I was making the right reads; they were on point, I just wasn’t connecting
Next Sep 26
vs App State · at home
✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style
Market outlook
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-09-22
the open questionwhere does it go from here?
Doeren's 8-5 season feels like a step back for a program that thrives on QB production and fan passion, now facing a solo market dip.
our readdeveloping
NC State enters 2025 at No. 55 in SP+ with top-quintile production returning and an 8-5 record under Dave Doeren — the loudest fanbase on Tobacco Road demands more than middle-tier stability.
our readbackground
Terrell Anderson is a legitimate money-down target -- his 3rd-down conversion rate ranks among the position's best, and his per-target value holds up in that spot too.
our readdeveloping
Terrell Anderson produces at a notably higher rate when his team is an underdog than when favored, and his per-target value rises too, not just raw catches.
our readdeveloping
Noah Rogers is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
our readbackground
Wesley Grimes is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
our readbackground
Outcome band · NC State · 2026
Floor, base and ceiling come from the season-path projection, which plays out conference title games and the CFP — so a ceiling can run past 12 games.
NC State win total fell from 7.5 to 6.5 (-1 wins) between May 2026 and Jun 2026. It is win total down 1.0 — solo market signal, no peers moved the same direction. The coverage is pushing back on the drop. The fan base is running warmer than the market. The coverage runs bullish despite the drop.
The 'market knows something fans don't' read -- when odds move, it's on information.
The 'markets overcorrect' counter -- lines move on noise too; the receipts may not hold.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
This event was in 506 of 2874 board posts (18%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
Board health this week (117 posts): 8% positive · 32% neutral · 60% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.
NC State enters 2025 rated No. 55 in SP+ (+4.8). It is top-quintile returning production in FBS — 1% of production comes back. SP+ describes what the program HAS done, not what it will do. The season is the field test. The preview consensus leans in — but preseason ratings reward the recent past, not the season ahead.
The 'the projection is underselling us' read -- fans betting the season beats the preview number.
The 'the model has seen the tape' counter -- efficiency ratings reward what a program has actually done, not hope.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
This event was in 578 of 2874 board posts (20%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
Board health this week (117 posts): 8% positive · 32% neutral · 60% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
More in this tab
NC State is the program with the loudest fanbase on Tobacco Road and the football team that produced Philip Rivers, Russell Wilson, and Mike Glennon at the same school.
UNC defensive coordinator resigns
UNC's DC vacancy is Doeren's gain — a coordinator-level résumé entering the portal market right as the Wolfpack LB room still needs bodies and the win total keeps sliding back to 6.5.
AJ Richardson out for season
Richardson's season-ending absence hits a depth chart already bleeding from two NFL departures and a development class ranked 49th — Pack fans have watched this win total bounce between 6.5 and 7.5 all offseason, and now the market has its answer.
UNC GM Lombardi resigns amid investigation
Lombardi's exit rattles the ACC power balance mid-bye week — Doeren's LB room is already thin, and rival programs raiding a destabilized UNC roster is exactly the offseason noise NC State doesn't need right now.
NCAA denies NC State player waiver
Preseason picked 7th in the ACC and now losing a waiver appeal — the cushion Doeren needed at depth just got thinner with a class ranked 49th doing the rebuilding.
NCAA denies waiver for NC State DT Katron Evans
Doeren's D-line depth just took a hit the NCAA handed down — Evans was a rotation piece in a room already down two to the draft, and a #49 class doesn't paper over that gap overnight.
Keenan Jackson: 9 rec · 102 yds · 3 TD at Vanderbilt
Top 1% catches game since 2021. at Vanderbilt (FBS) L 31-35.
Top 3 commits
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
NC leads the 2026 class with 8 commits. National footprint reaching 12 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
95 signees across 19 states, 2023-2026. NC leads the pull.
That is 8.6% of every high-school FBS signee NC produced over those cycles — dead level with North Carolina as the state's biggest signer. The full map →
Miles from home · 2026 roster
The median NC State player grew up 307 miles from campus.
Half this roster came from closer than that; half came from farther.
Straight-line distance from each player's listed hometown to Carter-Finley Stadium. Hometowns are placed at city-centroid precision, not street address — fine at this scale, but a player's true door-to-door number can differ by a few miles. 122 of 126 listed players have a geocoded hometown. Source: CFBD roster hometowns.
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
Fan confidence lower than any point since 2025
14th percentile among FBS programs
20% recovery rate on their own fumbles — below the ~52% league baseline.
1 of 5 own fumbles recovered themselves, 2026 only.
21% of tipped/broken-up passes have turned into picks — about the ~19% league average.
3 interceptions of 14 disrupted passes (11 deflected, 3 intercepted), 2026 only.
13 penalties committed, 25 drawn on opponents — netting a 84-yard field-position edge.
117 penalty yards committed vs. 201 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
Outcome band · NC State · 2026
Recruiting Footprint · 2026