1offseason
NC State win total fell from 7.5 to 6.5 (-1 wins) between May 2026 and Jun 2026.
Doeren's 8-5 season feels like a step back for a program that thrives on QB production and fan passion, now facing a solo market dip.
NC State8-5Latest
NC State's faithful can't agree on where this is headed.
belief cooled ↓ 18.2vs prior week
Fanbase belief
Mixed
52/100 · 229 mentions
~ our readGrounding
backed by facts
11% cite a stat · 7% typical ✓ counted
~ our readVolatility
Chaotic
σ 32 pts
~ our readThe model
#32
CFB Zeitgeist · +6.5
✓ measured1Hope-Doping·Offseason
NC State is the program that put Philip Rivers, Russell Wilson, and Mike Glennon through the same building — a quarterback factory whose ceiling has always been the ACC's upper-middle, never the top.
Title DroughtSince 1979 · 46 yrs
Fans are tired of being the forgotten school on Tobacco Road — the one nobody mentions when the cameras find Carolina blue and Duke's gym, even after producing more starting NFL quarterbacks than eith…
offseason · quiet
Roster Reload - NC State
2026 snapshot - 2026-08-06Returning Production95%High continuity
Talent Composite#45 nationally247 composite 707.5
Portal Additions20Primary repair: TE
Portal Losses22Primary pressure: LB
Draft Loss2NFL Draft departures (2) — 1 with a next man up identified below
Recruiting Reload#49Development class
WRin 5 - Joshisa Traderout 4 - Terrell AndersonEven
current room: 194 lbs avg (2025 roster)
LBin 2 - Raul Aguirre Jr.out 5 - Joshua OforStarter Risk
current room: 223 lbs avg (2025 roster)
OTin 2 - Jimarion McCrimonout 3 - Jacarrius PeakDowngrade
Sin 1 - King Mackout 3 - Daemon FaganStarter Risk
current room: 193 lbs avg (2025 roster)
CBin 2 - Ondre Evansout 1 - Jivan BalyUpgrade
current room: 182 lbs avg (2025 roster)
DLin 1 - KaTron Evansout 2 - Justin TerrellDowngrade
current room: 295 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Next man up
Belief EKG
WinLoss · hover for scorePrior seasons
Approaching
23 days
until kickoff · at Virginia · Sat Aug 29 · 19:30 UTC
The experience
NC State is the program with the loudest fanbase on Tobacco Road and the football team that produced Philip Rivers, Russell Wilson, and Mike Glennon at the same school.
Offense: StrongTempo: Explosive, big-playDefense: Soft
NC State's 2026 Season Balances High Continuity with Strategic Roster Adjustments
With a returning total of 95% and a development class ranked #49 in recruiting, NC State aims to leverage its stable roster while integrating new talent.
- Roster reloadNC State has a returning total of 95% and a development class ranked #49 in recruiting, indicating a focus on continuity despite losing two players to the NFL Draft.
- ScheduleThe team's base scenario projects a 9-4 record with a bowl game appearance, reflecting confidence in its current trajectory.
Data as of 2026-08-03
·
Validated against program evidence
Tuffy is in the den.
NC State · the story right now
7 storylines developing
What NC State's coordinator hires is really about
the open questiondo the new coordinators fit the roster?
coordinatorsthis cycle~readnew
Dave Doeren begins his 10th season with an 8-5 record, a winning foundation that highlights NC State's enduring presence on Tobacco Road and its legacy of producing NFL quarterbacks.
what happenedNC State: coordinator change reshaping a unit. ✓ fact
narrative tension · our read
program_outlookthis cycle~readnew
NC State enters 2025 at No. 55 in SP+ with top-quintile production returning and an 8-5 record under Dave Doeren — the loudest fanbase on Tobacco Road demands more than middle-tier stability.
what happenedNC State enters 2025 rated No. 55 in SP+ (+4.8). ✓ fact
the contexttop-quintile returning production in FBS — 1% of production comes back
narrative tension · our read
market_swing2026-06-18~readnew
Doeren's 8-5 season feels like a step back for a program that thrives on QB production and fan passion, now facing a solo market dip.
what happenedNC State win total fell from 7.5 to 6.5 (-1 wins) between May 2026 and Jun 2026. ✓ fact
the contextwin total down 1.0 — solo market signal, no peers moved the same direction
narrative tension · our read
money downthis cycle✓ factnew
Terrell Anderson is a legitimate money-down target -- his 3rd-down conversion rate ranks among the position's best, and his per-target value holds up in that spot too.
narrative tension · our read
underdogthis cycle✓ factnew
Terrell Anderson produces at a notably higher rate when his team is an underdog than when favored, and his per-target value rises too, not just raw catches.
narrative tension · our read
deep threatthis cycle~attributednew
Noah Rogers is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
narrative tension · our read
deep threatthis cycle~attributednew
Wesley Grimes is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
narrative tension · our read
Active arcs
Cooling
nc state-virginia football game moves back to charlottesville
How will the teams adjust to the sudden change in location?
Cooling
Why 3-star DL Amir Moore committed to NC State: 'Something just felt special…
How will these new receivers impact NC State's future offense?
Cooling
Colt Hauser, son of Yellowstone star, commits to NC State
How will Colt Hauser's commitment impact NC State's 2027 offensive line?
The Offseason Ledger · NC State
6 verified updates · portal · recruiting · staff · news- News
NCAA denies NC State player waiver
Preseason picked 7th in the ACC and now losing a waiver appeal — the cushion Doeren needed at depth just got thinner with a class ranked 49th doing the rebuilding.
- News
NCAA denies waiver for NC State DT Katron Evans
Doeren's D-line depth just took a hit the NCAA handed down — Evans was a rotation piece in a room already down two to the draft, and a #49 class doesn't paper over that gap overnight.
- Portal
NC State explores portal after ruling
NCAA denies the appeal, Doeren hits the portal for a veteran guard — McDaniel is the pressure-release valve on a LB-thin roster that already shipped two starters to the draft.
- Recruiting
Akedran Crumel commits to NC State
In-state CB stays home while the LB room bleeds depth — Crumel locks down a corner spot, but the positional battle that matters most in Raleigh this August isn't behind him.
- News
NC State opens 2027 season vs Clemson
Opening 2027 at home against Clemson is a circled date for Wolfpack fans — but with two draft departures, a #49 class, and a win total that's already been to 6.5 and back, Doeren needs that game to validate a rebuild, not expose one.
- Recruiting
Bryson Hurt commits to NC State
LB room under pressure, two draft exits still unfilled — Hurt's trust in Doeren means something when the portal is right there and the class sits #34 nationally.
Transfer portal snapshot
+0.7 net portal points
(raw ledger: -9.4 — unweighted, no position adjustment)LB-10.3
starter risk
S-8.3
starter risk
TE+7.5
need not filled
OT-4.2
CB+3.7
DL-3.4
IOL+2.6
WR+2.2
P+1.0
low confidence
RB-0.9
EDGE+0.6
QB+0.0
Top 3 commits
2026 class
★★★★☆
Amiri Acker
#306 national
Profiles like a typical incoming wide receiver — 15 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Possession Receiver archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
★★★★☆
Tyreek Copper
#469 national
Profiles like a typical incoming wide receiver — 14 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Possession Receiver archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
★★★☆☆
Damaad Lewis
#508 national
Profiles like a typical incoming interior lineman — 10 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Two-Gap Base archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
→
Fan confidence in a typical range for this program right now
43rd percentile among FBS programs
Fan vs. market↓
43rd
Fan percentile
(FBS mood rank)
(FBS mood rank)
7.5
Vegas O/U wins
(60th among FBS)
(60th among FBS)
Market 17pp more optimistic than fan mood
Win total consensus · 3 books
Market outlook
Season expectations
Win total3 booksO/U 7.5▲1 since Jun 2026
CFP championship#57 in field+50000
ACC title#7 in market+2200
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-08-06
NC State · Next-Season Outcome Band
NC State · Next-Season Outcome BandFloor / Base / Ceiling
Floor 6-7
Base 9-4
Ceiling 11-2
floor6-7Bowl game.
base9-4Bowl game.
ceiling11-2Bowl game.
Final-season-aware projection: floor / base / ceiling include conference title and CFP games where the model supports them, so a ceiling can exceed a 12-game regular season.
How the room reacted
Following now · NC State · Developing Confidence
NC State: coordinator change reshaping a unit.
NC State: coordinator change reshaping a unit.
the room is genuinely split
where the takes land · dot = how loud
DOUBTBELIEF
Skeptics2 doubt takes
Believers3 bull takes
🎪 drama: simmering💬 fans: 22% volume · negative overall
Developing2 new this week
todayWin total (line at 7.5) — no reprice yet on "NCAA denies NC State player waiver"
5 days agoWin total (line at 7.5) holding steady right after "NCAA denies NC State player waiver"
last weekNCAA denies NC State player waiver — Official
last weekNCAA denies waiver for NC State DT Katron Evans — Official
Jun 19Win total: 6.5 → 7.5 (▲1)
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Dave Doeren begins his 10th season with an 8-5 record, a winning foundation that highlights NC State's enduring presence on Tobacco Road and its legacy of producing NFL quarterbacks.
Source of record: NC State: coordinator change reshaping a unit.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
🎪The circus“FOIA Reveals NC State's Concert Revenue Model” — the saga that won't quit.›
The off-field storyline driving the noise right now. Not analysis — the soap opera, and that's the point.
“FOIA Reveals NC State's Concert Revenue Model”
PackInsider · 2026-08-05 · read ↗
📣Believers3 bullish items -- the case it's working.›
The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.
“Cozell McQueen, who helped NC State win 1983 national championship, dies at 64”
On3 CFB · 2026-08-06 · read ↗
“Driven by Urgency: Ronnie Royal III Primed for Breakout Season with NC State”
247Sports · 2026-08-04 · read ↗
“The best stories from NC State QB CJ Bailey’s football upbringing from those that witnessed his rise”
On3 · 2026-08-04 · read ↗
🧐Skeptics“NC State OC Kurt Roper: 'This is going to be a tough football te” — the real counter.›
The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.
“NC State OC Kurt Roper: 'This is going to be a tough football team'”
247Sports · 2026-08-05 · read ↗
“'NC State is a defensive team': Harvey Dyson looking to be the game wrecker the Pack D needs”
247Sports · 2026-08-04 · read ↗
💬The boards22% of recent board volume — the fanbase is locked in. Board mood this week: negative overall · anger notable (42%).›
This event was in 179 of 822 board posts (22%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
"Hey guys :)! I’m planning on applying to NC State for Biological Sciences and was wondering what you all think my chances are. I’m an in-state student with a 3.89 unweighted GPA an"
r/NCSU ~ fan take
"Hi everyone! I’m a NC early college student applying to NC State for Fall 2027, and I was hoping to get some opinions on my chances for Biological Sciences. I currently have a 4.64"
r/NCSU ~ fan take
Board health this week (246 posts): 17% positive · 60% neutral · 23% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.
Following now · NC State · Season outlook Confidence
NC State enters the season in the middle of the pack. That's the whole tension.
NC State enters 2025 rated No. 55 in SP+ (+4.8). It is top-quintile returning production in FBS — 1% of production comes back. SP+ describes what the program HAS done, not what it will do. The season is the field test. Preview coverage is split — believers and skeptics are reading the same data differently.
the room is genuinely split
where the takes land · dot = how loud
DOUBTBELIEF
Skeptics2 doubt takes
Believers3 bull takes
🎪 drama: simmering💬 fans: 28% volume · negative overall
Developing2 new this week
todayWin total (line at 7.5) — no reprice yet on "NCAA denies NC State player waiver"
5 days agoWin total (line at 7.5) holding steady right after "NCAA denies NC State player waiver"
last weekNCAA denies NC State player waiver — Official
last weekNCAA denies waiver for NC State DT Katron Evans — Official
Jun 19Win total: 6.5 → 7.5 (▲1)
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
NC State enters 2025 at No. 55 in SP+ with top-quintile production returning and an 8-5 record under Dave Doeren — the loudest fanbase on Tobacco Road demands more than middle-tier stability.
Next · what to watch
The non-obvious read on this rating isn't the number — it's the schedule. A team at this level has 2-3 games where the model says they're overmatched, and those are the games that define the narrative. Watch whether the model holds through the first month of the schedule. The boards are already there — one thread raises exactly this.
Source of record: NC State enters 2025 rated No. 55 in SP+ (+4.8) — top-quintile returning production in FBS — 1% of production comes back.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
🎪The circus“FOIA Reveals NC State's Concert Revenue Model” — the saga that won't quit.›
The off-field storyline driving the noise right now. Not analysis — the soap opera, and that's the point.
“FOIA Reveals NC State's Concert Revenue Model”
PackInsider · 2026-08-05 · read ↗
📣Believers3 bullish items -- the case it's working.›
The 'the projection is underselling us' read -- fans betting the season beats the preview number.
“Cozell McQueen, who helped NC State win 1983 national championship, dies at 64”
On3 CFB · 2026-08-06 · read ↗
“Driven by Urgency: Ronnie Royal III Primed for Breakout Season with NC State”
247Sports · 2026-08-04 · read ↗
“The best stories from NC State QB CJ Bailey’s football upbringing from those that witnessed his rise”
On3 · 2026-08-04 · read ↗
🧐Skeptics“NC State OC Kurt Roper: 'This is going to be a tough football te” — the real counter.›
The 'the model has seen the tape' counter -- efficiency ratings reward what a program has actually done, not hope.
“NC State OC Kurt Roper: 'This is going to be a tough football team'”
247Sports · 2026-08-05 · read ↗
“'NC State is a defensive team': Harvey Dyson looking to be the game wrecker the Pack D needs”
247Sports · 2026-08-04 · read ↗
💬The boards28% of recent board volume — the fanbase is locked in. Board mood this week: negative overall · anger notable (42%).›
This event was in 228 of 822 board posts (28%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
"Hey guys :)! I’m planning on applying to NC State for Biological Sciences and was wondering what you all think my chances are. I’m an in-state student with a 3.89 unweighted GPA an"
r/NCSU ~ fan take
"Hi everyone! I’m a NC early college student applying to NC State for Fall 2027, and I was hoping to get some opinions on my chances for Biological Sciences. I currently have a 4.64"
r/NCSU ~ fan take
Board health this week (246 posts): 17% positive · 60% neutral · 23% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.
Recent Form · last 10 games
Warming
Four of five. The board favors this trend.
Streak W3Last 5 · 4-1Last 10 · 5-5
The forecast
Opens Aug 29
vs Virginia · away
Season line7.5 winsover +100
StrongExplosive, big-playSoft
✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style
Rival pulse
East Carolina
Very Bullish+46
ECU-NC State
North Carolina
Mixed-1
Carolina-State
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
28
NC · 8FL · 4GA · 4SC · 3NJ · 2AL · 1IL · 1MD · 1+4 more
NC leads the 2026 class with 8 commits. National footprint reaching 12 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
95 signees across 19 states, 2023-2026. NC leads the pull.
r/cfb this year
[Postgame Thread] NC State Defeats Memphis 31-7
[Postgame Thread] NC State Defeats ECU 24-17
[Game Thread] ECU @ NC State (7:00 PM ET)
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
National spotlight
11 games with TV coverage: 7 ESPN, 3 conference network, 1 streaming
Kickoff windows: 1 noon, 4 afternoon, 6 primetime
Fumble luck
71% recovery rate on the fumbles they've forced — well above the ~49% league baseline.
5 of 7 forced fumbles recovered; 4 of 6 own fumbles recovered themselves, 2025 only.
Takeaway conversion
16% of tipped/broken-up passes have turned into picks — about the ~19% league average.
8 interceptions of 50 disrupted passes (42 deflected, 8 intercepted), 2025 only.
Penalty battle
72 penalties committed, 91 drawn on opponents — netting a 142-yard field-position edge.
699 penalty yards committed vs. 841 drawn on opponents, 2025 season total.
The Pulse on NC State
52
Δ -18.2 vs last wk
229
mentions this week · conversation velocity
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Camp
Fall camp open — install + scrimmage cycle
ongoing
Kickoff
Season opener in 16 days
kickoff
"Go Pack"
— NC State fanbase · recurring line
Fanbase Signals
Cohort Divergence2 pctSpread between sub-fanbase cohorts in the Pulse window.
The Fever Year
Position = mood · width = volume · color = the kind of feeling
Inside the fanbase — all 12 corners
Cr/CFB
GGoogle News
LLocked On
BBacking The Pack
CCampus paper
PPack Insider
BBluesky
YYouTube
The split, staged
Warmest corner+0.00
Media
most bought-in cohort our read
vs
Coldest corner−0.00
Casuals
coolest cohort our read
How NC State fans actually talk real · top-upvoted
The crowd’s loudest take by upvotes — read for mood, not as a side. The cohort read is the measured part.
Loudest in the room this week real · by engagement
All 12 corners of the fanbase
skeptical
buying in
Media+0.05
Casuals−0.00
Cohort sentiment is a source-weighted model read — never a quote pinned to a person.
What this fanbase keeps coming back to our read · topic model
Topics are model-labeled from Reddit — a rough signal of what this fanbase is circling right now.
619 mentions · 8 sources · week 2026-01. Counts, sources and the divergence rank are measured (fact). Cohort labels and sentiment are a source-weighted model read (our read) — never a quote attributed to a person.
Belief checkevidence-driven
~ our readNC State fans are leaning negative, and they're pointing to real stats and results to back it up — more than most fanbases right now.
backed by facts
the mood
✓ counted We read 246 posts from NC State fans this week.
What fans are saying
Fan claims · every quote verified verbatim
player roleWidely held among fans
fans believe CJ Bailey is the key to NC State's success and that the team cannot compete without him
They remain in the top-half of the conference thanks to do-it-all quarterback CJ Bailey and the league’s best schedule draw.
Based on 1 comment from 1 poster across 1 thread · Jul 28, 2026 · via CFB
rivalryLimited signal that season
fans think the intensity of the games exceeds typical conference matchups
I love playing ECU. I fucking HATE them and losing to them is brutal, but that’s what makes college football great. This game actually means something
Based on 1 comment from 1 poster across 1 thread · Aug 29, 2025 · via CFB
Season storylines
Week 4
“13 years. 13 years of mediocre bullshit and losing to a team literally without a coach”— r/CFB
Week 1
“The first quarter made me somewhat excited about this football season, the other three completely killed that for me.”— r/CFB
Week 5
“They started the game with 2 incomplete deep passes the receivers had both hands on, and there were a lot of injuries. An authentic NCAA25 experience”— r/CFB
Week 2
“That game had everything a sicko could ask for: A brisket fire, 28 total points in the first quarter, a THICC Six, and a ref taking a football throw to the nads”— r/CFB
Week 14
“I pity the fool that watched the diva contest between the #1 and #2 ranked teams in a game that will be rendered meaningless in a few weeks. This game was the stuff of legends.”— r/CFB
Forum Pulse
via Pack Insider
- VIDEO: The battle for Ven-Allen Lubin seems to be down to Justin Gainey vs. Will Wade. Here’s why NC State may have the upper hand.
- NC State Could Earn More Than $3 Million From Two Summer Concerts
- NC State Receives Votes in 2026 Preseason Coaches Poll
- Duke Scott’s Freshman Season Puts Him in Rare NC State Company, Sophomore Leap Incoming?
- NC State Showing Interest in ULM DT Jaden Hamlin Following Eligibility Ruling
Five Lenses
What people are saying right now
Radio, beat writers & editorial12 posts
Diehard fan boards12 posts
News & campus coverage12 posts
CFB analyst takes2 posts
Rent free · r/cfb fan posts, last season
NC State fans this offseason 23% of posts bring up another team▲2pp saltier#29 of 43 saltiest · mostly about North Carolina
Who NC State fans can’t stop bringing up
share of NC State’s football posts that mention each team
Fanbase Health Index · NC State · high confidence
Fanbase Health Index · NC State · high confidenceGrowing (65)
DecliningStableGrowingSurging
On-Field — 8-5 (62% win rate)67
Volume — 1587 effective signal-N94
Cohort Engagement — Divergence 0.02 — quiet35
From the booth
The Lexicon
500 posts and articles vs the field · 2025 season
doeren
×373.7 the field
Signature — ≥10× the rest of college football
doeren×373.7n=14
bailey×58.9n=13
dave×44.4n=12
Mild — <3×
defense×2.5n=110
Characteristic — 3–10×
secondary×5.7n=23
commit×3.8n=32
special×4.4n=20
hurt×7.4n=11
bad×2.6n=25
good×1.9n=41
“Doeren hired the DC so it’s still his defense.”
reddit/CFB · fan post, verbatim
Fanbase Voice
540 fan mentions
Measured
vs the 81 highest-volume fanbases - 2025 season
Key stats — 2025 — FBS rank
Points/game#38 / 138 · 73rd pct30.2
Pts allowed/game#80 / 138 · 43rd pct27.2
Total yards/gm#59 / 136 · 57th pct392.8
Rush yards/gm#78 / 136 · 43rd pct147.1
Pass yards/gm#45 / 136 · 68th pct245.7
Yards allowed/gm#123 / 136 · 10th pct412.5
Rush yds allowed/gm#56 / 136 · 60th pct139.4
Sacks#105 / 136 · 24th pct20
Interceptions#68 / 136 · 51st pct9
3rd-down conv#51 / 136 · 63rd pct41.2%
All 98 stats
Offense / Defense
Total yards
Team5106392.8/gm6.11/play#59 / 136 · 57th pct#34 / 69 · 52nd pct#8 / 17 · 59th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Opp5363412.5/gm6.07/play#123 / 136 · 10th pct#67 / 69 · 4th pct#16 / 17 · 12th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Rush yards
Team1912147.1/gm2.29/play#78 / 136 · 43rd pct#41 / 69 · 42nd pct#9 / 17 · 53rd pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Opp1812139.4/gm2.05/play#56 / 136 · 60th pct#40 / 69 · 43rd pct#11 / 17 · 41st pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
Rush carries
Team42332.5/gm#86 / 136 · 38th pct#42 / 69 · 41st pct#10 / 17 · 47th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Opp41531.9/gm#20 / 136 · 86th pct#17 / 69 · 77th pct#4 / 17 · 82nd pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Rush TDs
Team272.1/gm#40 / 136 · 71st pct#23 / 69 · 68th pct#5 / 17 · 76th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Opp171.3/gm#50 / 136 · 64th pct#33 / 69 · 54th pct#7 / 17 · 65th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Net pass yards
Team3194245.7/gm3.82/play#45 / 136 · 68th pct#25 / 69 · 65th pct#10 / 17 · 47th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Opp3551273.2/gm4.02/play#133 / 136 · 3rd pct#67 / 69 · 4th pct#15 / 17 · 18th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Pass attempts
Team41331.8/gm#51 / 136 · 63rd pct#26 / 69 · 64th pct#10 / 17 · 47th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
Opp46936.1/gm#127 / 136 · 7th pct#64 / 69 · 9th pct#14 / 17 · 24th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Completions
Team28021.5/gm#36 / 136 · 74th pct#23 / 69 · 68th pct#9 / 17 · 53rd pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Opp29522.7/gm#128 / 136 · 7th pct#64 / 69 · 9th pct#14 / 17 · 24th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Pass TDs
Team262.0/gm#25 / 136 · 82nd pct#17 / 69 · 77th pct#4 / 17 · 82nd pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Opp221.7/gm#100 / 136 · 27th pct#53 / 69 · 25th pct#12 / 17 · 35th pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct
Passer rating
Team149.2149.2#27 / 136 · 81st pct#20 / 69 · 72nd pct#4 / 17 · 82nd pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Opp137.7137.7#91 / 136 · 34th pct#50 / 69 · 29th pct#12 / 17 · 35th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Interceptions thrown
Team100.8/gm#56 / 136 · 60th pct#23 / 69 · 68th pct#8 / 17 · 59th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Opp90.7/gm#54 / 136 · 61st pct#27 / 69 · 62nd pct#9 / 17 · 53rd pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Sacks (def)
Team201.5/gm#105 / 136 · 24th pct#59 / 69 · 16th pct#13 / 17 · 29th pct#10 / 10 · 10th pct
Opp241.8/gm#72 / 136 · 48th pct#38 / 69 · 46th pct#8 / 17 · 59th pct#5 / 10 · 60th pct
Tackles for loss
Team665.1/gm#75 / 136 · 46th pct#41 / 69 · 42nd pct#10 / 17 · 47th pct#10 / 10 · 10th pct
Opp755.8/gm#105 / 136 · 24th pct#58 / 69 · 17th pct#15 / 17 · 18th pct#4 / 10 · 70th pct
First downs
Team26520.4/gm#62 / 136 · 55th pct#35 / 69 · 51st pct#9 / 17 · 53rd pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
Opp27621.2/gm#110 / 136 · 20th pct#61 / 69 · 13th pct#15 / 17 · 18th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
3rd-down conv
Team685.2/gm#72 / 136 · 48th pct#36 / 69 · 49th pct#10 / 17 · 47th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Opp846.5/gm#132 / 136 · 4th pct#69 / 69 · 1st pct#17 / 17 · 6th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
3rd-down att
Team16512.7/gm#94 / 136 · 32nd pct#40 / 69 · 43rd pct#12 / 17 · 35th pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct
Opp18414.2/gm#93 / 136 · 32nd pct#49 / 69 · 30th pct#12 / 17 · 35th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
4th-down conv
Team131.0/gm#68 / 136 · 51st pct#37 / 69 · 48th pct#10 / 17 · 47th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Opp90.7/gm#15 / 136 · 90th pct#6 / 69 · 93rd pct#1 / 17 · 100th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
4th-down att
Team262.0/gm#55 / 136 · 60th pct#30 / 69 · 58th pct#8 / 17 · 59th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Opp221.7/gm#39 / 136 · 72nd pct#20 / 69 · 72nd pct#5 / 17 · 76th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
Time of possession
Team389:1929:57/gm#57 / 136 · 59th pct#28 / 69 · 61st pct#7 / 17 · 65th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
Opp390:4130:03/gm#91 / 136 · 34th pct#45 / 69 · 36th pct#11 / 17 · 41st pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Kicking & Punting
Field goals#110 / 135 · 19th pct6/9 (66.7%)
Extra points51/52
Punting#66 / 136 · 52nd pct43.5 avg · 57 punts
Turnovers & special teams
Turnovers
Team131.0/gm#103 / 136 · 25th pct#49 / 69 · 30th pct#17 / 17 · 6th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Opp151.2/gm#49 / 136 · 65th pct#29 / 69 · 59th pct#9 / 17 · 53rd pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Fumbles lost
Team30.2/gm#124 / 136 · 10th pct#61 / 69 · 13th pct#16 / 17 · 12th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Opp60.5/gm#49 / 136 · 65th pct#23 / 69 · 68th pct#6 / 17 · 71st pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
INT return TDs
Team10.1/gm#36 / 135 · 74th pct#19 / 69 · 74th pct#5 / 17 · 76th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Opp10.1/gm#61 / 136 · 56th pct#30 / 69 · 58th pct#6 / 17 · 71st pct#4 / 11 · 73rd pct
INT return yards
Team15712.1/gm#42 / 136 · 70th pct#23 / 69 · 68th pct#5 / 17 · 76th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Opp25219.4/gm#130 / 136 · 5th pct#68 / 69 · 3rd pct#16 / 17 · 12th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Punt ret yds
Team594.5/gm#117 / 136 · 15th pct#63 / 69 · 10th pct#15 / 17 · 18th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Opp20115.5/gm#114 / 136 · 17th pct#58 / 69 · 17th pct#14 / 17 · 24th pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct
Punt ret TDs
Team00.0/gm#43 / 135 · 69th pct#23 / 69 · 68th pct#5 / 17 · 76th pct#8 / 10 · 30th pct
Opp00.0/gm#1 / 135 · 100th pct#1 / 69 · 100th pct#1 / 17 · 100th pct#1 / 9 · 100th pct
Kick ret yds
Team29222.5/gm#100 / 136 · 27th pct#46 / 69 · 35th pct#15 / 17 · 18th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Opp65350.2/gm#114 / 136 · 17th pct#62 / 69 · 12th pct#15 / 17 · 18th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Kick ret TDs
Team00.0/gm#40 / 136 · 71st pct#17 / 69 · 77th pct#4 / 17 · 82nd pct#6 / 10 · 50th pct
Opp10.1/gm#97 / 135 · 29th pct#53 / 69 · 25th pct#16 / 17 · 12th pct#6 / 10 · 50th pct
Penalty yards
Team69953.8/gm#62 / 136 · 55th pct#29 / 69 · 59th pct#10 / 17 · 47th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Opp84164.7/gm#120 / 136 · 12th pct#65 / 69 · 7th pct#15 / 17 · 18th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Other
Fumbles rec (def)#6 / 136 · 96th pct#4 / 69 · 96th pct#1 / 17 · 100th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct30.2/gm
H1 epa per play#10 / 162 · 94th pct#8 / 69 · 90th pct#1 / 17 · 100th pct0.40.0/gm
Recruiting rating#34 / 138 · 76th pct#34 / 69 · 52nd pct#7 / 17 · 65th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct214.216.5/gm
Red zone pass rate#41 / 154 · 74th pct#15 / 69 · 80th pct#5 / 17 · 76th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct0.40.0/gm
Passes intercepted opponent#64 / 136 · 54th pct#38 / 69 · 46th pct#8 / 17 · 59th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct100.8/gm
Interceptions (def)#68 / 136 · 51st pct#35 / 69 · 51st pct#8 / 17 · 59th pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct90.7/gm
Fourth down go rate#69 / 138 · 51st pct#37 / 69 · 48th pct#11 / 17 · 41st pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct0.40.0/gm
Fumbles recovered#70 / 136 · 49th pct#33 / 69 · 54th pct#7 / 17 · 65th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct60.5/gm
Punt ret (opp)#73 / 136 · 47th pct#42 / 69 · 41st pct#11 / 17 · 41st pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct151.2/gm
H2 epa per play#74 / 142 · 49th pct#40 / 69 · 43rd pct#6 / 17 · 71st pct0.20.0/gm
Punt returns#80 / 136 · 42nd pct#48 / 69 · 32nd pct#12 / 17 · 35th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct141.1/gm
Penalties#83 / 136 · 40th pct#36 / 69 · 49th pct#13 / 17 · 29th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct725.5/gm
Kick returns#93 / 136 · 32nd pct#44 / 69 · 38th pct#14 / 17 · 24th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct161.2/gm
H2 epa per play opponent#94 / 143 · 35th pct#47 / 69 · 33rd pct#13 / 17 · 29th pct0.20.0/gm
Kick ret (opp)#104 / 136 · 24th pct#60 / 69 · 14th pct#14 / 17 · 24th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct282.2/gm
H1 epa per play opponent#105 / 167 · 38th pct#54 / 69 · 23rd pct#12 / 17 · 35th pct0.20.0/gm
Penalties (opp)#113 / 136 · 18th pct#61 / 69 · 13th pct#12 / 17 · 35th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct917.0/gm
First down pass rate#145 / 215 · 33rd pct#55 / 69 · 22nd pct#14 / 17 · 24th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct0.40.0/gm
Situational
3rd-down conversion
Off41.2%#51 / 136 · 63rd pct#30 / 69 · 58th pct#5 / 17 · 76th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Def45.7%#128 / 136 · 7th pct#68 / 69 · 3rd pct#17 / 17 · 6th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
4th-down conversion
Off50.0%#91 / 136 · 34th pct#52 / 69 · 26th pct#13 / 17 · 29th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
Def40.9%#18 / 136 · 88th pct#8 / 69 · 90th pct#3 / 17 · 88th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Turnover margin#54 / 136 · 61st pct#31 / 69 · 57th pct#6 / 17 · 71st pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct+0.15/gm
Sack rate (def)#125 / 136 · 9th pct#64 / 69 · 9th pct#17 / 17 · 6th pct#10 / 10 · 10th pct4.3%
Red Zone & Drive Efficiency (2014– , play-by-play derived)
Red zone trips
Team413.2/gm#80 / 167 · 53rd pct#46 / 69 · 35th pct#9 / 17 · 53rd pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Opp503.8/gm#141 / 166 · 16th pct#60 / 69 · 14th pct#14 / 17 · 24th pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct
Red zone score %
Team85.4%85.4%#37 / 167 · 78th pct#20 / 69 · 72nd pct#2 / 17 · 94th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Opp72.0%72.0%#34 / 166 · 80th pct#13 / 69 · 83rd pct#3 / 17 · 88th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Points / drive
Team2.20.2/gm#57 / 167 · 66th pct#38 / 69 · 46th pct#8 / 17 · 59th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Opp2.10.2/gm#97 / 166 · 42nd pct#54 / 69 · 23rd pct#13 / 17 · 29th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
Yards / drive
Team41.33.2/gm#69 / 167 · 59th pct#39 / 69 · 45th pct#7 / 17 · 65th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Opp48.93.8/gm#156 / 166 · 7th pct#69 / 69 · 1st pct#17 / 17 · 6th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Plays / drive
Team6.40.5/gm#109 / 167 · 35th pct#55 / 69 · 22nd pct#13 / 17 · 29th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Opp6.90.5/gm#137 / 166 · 18th pct#59 / 69 · 16th pct#15 / 17 · 18th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Three-and-out rate
Team14.3%14.3%#92 / 167 · 46th pct#48 / 69 · 32nd pct#10 / 17 · 47th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
Opp11.6%11.6%#112 / 166 · 33rd pct#54 / 69 · 23rd pct#13 / 17 · 29th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Scheme Identity (2014– , play-by-play derived)
Rush rate over expected#93 / 145 · 37th pct#42 / 69 · 41st pct#8 / 17 · 59th pct-2.7%-2.7%
Havoc rate
Team14.4%14.4%#99 / 140 · 30th pct#57 / 69 · 19th pct#13 / 17 · 29th pct
Opp16.0%16.0%#83 / 140 · 41st pct#41 / 69 · 42nd pct#8 / 17 · 59th pct
Standard-downs success
Team48.9%48.9%#64 / 154 · 59th pct#37 / 69 · 48th pct#7 / 17 · 65th pct
Opp43.3%43.3%#23 / 172 · 87th pct#15 / 69 · 80th pct#5 / 17 · 76th pct
Passing-downs success
Team33.3%33.3%#41 / 153 · 74th pct#24 / 69 · 67th pct#4 / 17 · 82nd pct
Opp31.7%31.7%#93 / 149 · 38th pct#45 / 69 · 36th pct#12 / 17 · 35th pct
Line yards / carry
Team2.92.9#70 / 143 · 52nd pct#39 / 69 · 45th pct#8 / 17 · 59th pct
Opp2.92.9#81 / 155 · 48th pct#46 / 69 · 35th pct#12 / 17 · 35th pct
Stuff rate
Team21.6%21.6%#116 / 143 · 20th pct#59 / 69 · 16th pct#14 / 17 · 24th pct
Opp19.1%19.1%#69 / 155 · 56th pct#40 / 69 · 43rd pct#12 / 17 · 35th pct
Power success rate
Team73.9%73.9%#47 / 137 · 66th pct#25 / 69 · 65th pct#7 / 17 · 65th pct
Opp62.2%62.2%#30 / 141 · 79th pct#15 / 69 · 80th pct#3 / 17 · 88th pct
Efficiency
Completion %
Off67.8%#15 / 136 · 90th pct#11 / 69 · 86th pct#3 / 17 · 88th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Def62.9%#82 / 136 · 40th pct#43 / 69 · 39th pct#11 / 17 · 41st pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Yards / attempt
Off7.7#42 / 136 · 70th pct#26 / 69 · 64th pct#6 / 17 · 71st pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Def7.6#102 / 136 · 26th pct#56 / 69 · 20th pct#12 / 17 · 35th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Yards / completion
Off11.4#76 / 136 · 45th pct#44 / 69 · 38th pct#10 / 17 · 47th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
Def12.0#99 / 136 · 28th pct#55 / 69 · 22nd pct#14 / 17 · 24th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Yards / carry#59 / 136 · 57th pct#32 / 69 · 55th pct#6 / 17 · 71st pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct4.5
Yards / play#35 / 136 · 75th pct#23 / 69 · 68th pct#6 / 17 · 71st pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct6.11
Scoring margin#63 / 136 · 54th pct#42 / 69 · 41st pct#11 / 17 · 41st pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct+3.1/gm
FBS rankings · 2025 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
Player stats — 2025 season
Quarterbacks
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game Manager · +0.38 EPA/play | 11 | 13 | 273 / 397 | 68.8 | 3105 #31 FBS | 7.8 | 25 #19 FBS | 9 | 150.7 | 71.0 | 7.4 | 4.6 | |
Yards by week → Game Manager· Money-downConsistent underneath passer who protects the lead. Rarely loses games; rarely wins them alone. saves his best for the money downs Watch-list name — on at least one major award watch list, no hardware yet — trending, not yet confirmed. 9 of 183 QBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Completion %70.2% 89th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Yards / attempt8.3 73th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like View CJ Bailey's full player page | |||||||||||||
Running Backs
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Stuff% | 10+% | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Satellite Back · +0.00 EPA/play | 3 | 11 | 160 | 939 #55 FBS | 5.9 | 6 | 65 | 17.1 | 15 | 22.9 | 14.6 | 11.0% (40/362) | |
Yards by week → Satellite BackDeployed as a receiver as much as a runner. Value is in space, not between the tackles. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 50 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Receiving share18.8% 87th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / reception5.1 bottom 22th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Daylan Smothers's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Speed Merchant · +0.15 EPA/play | 4 | 13 | 106 | 595 | 5.6 | 4 | 69 | 6.5 | 10.8 | 15.2 | 13.3 | 4.4% (16/362) | |
Yards by week → Speed MerchantCuts upfield fast. Designed to find the crease, not run through the line. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 48 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / carry6.1 79th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / reception8.8 63th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jayden Scott's full player page | |||||||||||||
Receivers
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Possession Receiver · +0.95 EPA/play | 9 | 13 | 39 | 629 | 16.1 | 5 | 75 | 9.8 | 9.6 | 13.8% (50/362) | |
Yards by week → Possession Receiver· Money-downReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. lives on the sticks and moves the chains 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception16.2 78th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.9 97th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score went from the 7th percentile among FBS WRs to the 78th | |||||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.43 EPA/play | 7 | 12 | 49 | 489 | 10.0 | 7 #38 FBS | 59 | 7.0 | 9 | 17.1% (62/362) | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 177 of 223 TEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception10.4 bottom 44th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Reception volume49 99th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like our readTwo-star recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.78 EPA/play | 6 | 11 | 31 | 458 | 14.8 | 3 | 48 | 6.9 | 9.3 | 11.3% (41/362) | |
Yards by week → Possession Receiver· Money-downReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. lives on the sticks and moves the chains The most common profile in its group this season — 332 of 558 classified this way. Played in 11 of 21 games this season · senior View Wesley Grimes's full player page | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.74 EPA/play | 5 | 11 | 31 | 413 | 13.3 | 2 | 48 | 8.3 | 10.6 | 13.3% (48/362) | |
Yards by week → Possession Receiver· Money-downReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. lives on the sticks and moves the chains 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception13.0 bottom 48th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.7 83th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Noah Rogers's full player page | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.43 EPA/play | 12 | 13 | 25 | 349 | 14.0 | 3 | 55 | 5.7 | 4.8 | 9.1% (33/362) | |
Yards by week → Possession Receiver· Money-downReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. lives on the sticks and moves the chains 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception14.4 62th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate12.0% 71th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Teddy Hoffmann's full player page | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.34 EPA/play | 8 | 12 | 28 | 281 | 10.0 | 2 | 33 | 7.0 | 7.3 | 11.3% (41/362) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. The most common profile in its group this season — 332 of 558 classified this way. Played in 12 of 21 games this season · sophomore · 3-star, 2023 class View Keenan Jackson's full player page | |||||||||||
| +1.00 EPA/play | 87 | 5 | 7 | 74 | 10.6 | 1 | 22 | 1.9 | 0 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
| +1.79 EPA/play | 44 | 4 | 5 | 74 | 14.8 | 2 | 37 | 2.4 | 1.4 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
Defensive Line
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pressure Merchant | 54 | 13 | 41 | 15 | 7.5 | 2.5 | 13 |
Pressure MerchantCollapses the pocket even when the sack doesn't come. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 23 of 200 EDGEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Hurry rate0.3 88th percentile · FBS EDGE, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readUnranked recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile our readBounce-Back: his CFB Index score shows a real arc: 65th percentile among FBS EDGEs, fell to 31st, now back up to 80th | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 44 | 12 | 36 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 |
Nose AnchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. 152 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight315 lb 87th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Brandon Cleveland's full player page | |||||||
| Power Rusher | 13 | 11 | 22 | 11 | 5 | 3.5 | 4 |
Power RusherBull-rushes through contact, winning with size and length at the point of attack. 10 of 200 EDGEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate22.7% 61th percentile · FBS EDGE, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Travali Price's full player page | |||||||
| Versatile End | 88 | 7 | 15 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
Versatile EndNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. The most common profile in its group this season — 139 of 200 classified this way. Played in 7 of 21 games this season · sophomore · 3-star, 2023 class View Isaiah Shirley's full player page | |||||||
| Power Rusher | 92 | 9 | 11 | 6 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 2 |
Power RusherBull-rushes through contact, winning with size and length at the point of attack. 10 of 200 EDGEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate50.0% 100th percentile · FBS EDGE, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Chase Bond's full player page | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 90 | 5 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Nose AnchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. 152 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight320 lb 90th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Josiah Victor's full player page | |||||||
| 52 | 4 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 25 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
Linebackers
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Linebacker | 10 | 13 | 143 | 60 | 83 | 9.5 | 3.5 | 3 | 2 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 362 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume143 100th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate6.6% bottom 35th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like our readBreakout: his CFB Index score climbed from the 52nd percentile to the 98th among FBS LBs | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 33 | 13 | 80 | 35 | 45 | 4 | 0.5 | 2 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. The most common profile in its group this season — 362 of 660 classified this way. Played in 13 of 21 games this season · senior our readBounce-Back: his CFB Index score shows a real arc: 50th percentile among FBS LBs, fell to 23rd, now back up to 59th | |||||||||
| Thumper | 8 | 13 | 62 | 24 | 38 | 7 | 1.5 | 1 | 1 |
ThumperDownhill striker who fills the run lane and blitzes off the edge. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 97 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate11.3% 61th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Tackle volume62 65th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Cian Slone's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | — | 5 | 44 | 18 | 26 | 3.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. The most common profile in its group this season — 362 of 660 classified this way. Played in 5 of 21 games this season · senior · 3-star, 2021 class our readFading: his CFB Index score moved from the 88th to 35th percentile among FBS LBs | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 4 | 11 | 24 | 7 | 17 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 362 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume24 bottom 17th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Sack rate16.7% 100th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Tra Thomas's full player page | |||||||||
| 30 | 6 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 41 | 3 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 42 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 36 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 35 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Defensive Backs
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Box Safety | 26 | 11 | 64 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Box SafetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 166 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume64 85th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Asaad Brown Jr.'s full player page | |||||||
| Ball Hawk | 6 | 13 | 50 | 15 #1 FBS | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Ball HawkReads the quarterback's eyes and takes the ball away. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 44 of 270 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate30.0% 96th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score moved from the 84th to 96th percentile among FBS CBs | |||||||
| Box Safety | 2 | 12 | 49 | 1 | 1 | 1.5 | 0 |
Box SafetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 166 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume49 63th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Ronnie Royal III's full player page | |||||||
| Perimeter Tackler | 22 | 10 | 45 | 6 | 0 | 1.5 | 0 |
Perimeter TacklerTargeted often and asked to tackle in space on the perimeter. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 42 of 270 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume45 87th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Jackson Vick's full player page | |||||||
| Cover Corner | 7 | 11 | 29 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Cover CornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. The most common profile in its group this season — 141 of 270 classified this way. Played in 11 of 21 games this season · sophomore our readFading: his CFB Index score moved from the 91st to 46th percentile among FBS CBs | |||||||
| Cover Corner | 21 | 9 | 27 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Cover CornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. The most common profile in its group this season — 141 of 270 classified this way. Played in 9 of 21 games this season · senior our readFading: his CFB Index score climbed from the 90th percentile to the 42nd among FBS CBs | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 29 | 5 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 419 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate0.0% bottom 14th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Brody Barnhardt's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 19 | 7 | 23 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 419 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate0.0% bottom 14th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Tristan Teasdell's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 16 | 6 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 419 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate5.9% bottom 39th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like our readFading: his CFB Index score climbed from the 69th percentile to the 12th among FBS Ss | |||||||
| 15 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Kicking
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 94 | 12 | 5/6 | 83.3 | 48/49 | 63 | 51 | |
| 91 | 2 | 1/3 | 33.3 | 3/3 | 6 | 29 |
Punting
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinner | 98 | 12 | 56 | 2433 | 43.4 | 66 | 23 | 4 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
Kick Returns
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Speed Merchant · +0.15 EPA/play | 4 | 13 | 11 | 234 | 21.3 | 0 | 38 |
| +0.19 EPA/play | 31 | 7 | 5 | 58 | 11.6 | 0 | 22 |
Punt Returns
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Possession Receiver · +0.43 EPA/play | 12 | 13 | 8 | 32 | 4 | 0 | 12 |
| Possession Receiver · +0.95 EPA/play | 9 | 13 | 6 | 27 | 4.5 | 0 | 15 |
2025 stat leaders
final
2025 stat leaders
1.
Caden Fordham
LB
143 tot (def)
2.
Kenny Soares Jr.
LB
80.0 tot (def)
3.
CJ Bailey
QB
3,105 yds (pass)
4.
Asaad Brown Jr.
DB
64.0 tot (def)
5.
Daylan Smothers
RB
939 yds (rush)
Roster
2025
22
players carry a qualified CFB Index Score this season.
Caden Fordham
LB
#15 of 583
Justin Joly
TE
#11 of 156
Devon Marshall
CB
#28 of 364
Brandon Cleveland
IDL
#43 of 330
Cian Slone
LB
#115 of 583
CJ Bailey
QB
#31 of 146
+16 more
NC State · 2025 schedule & results8-5Brutal slateAverage opponent win rate 58% · 7 AP top-25 opponents on the schedule. 1 ranked win banked (time-of-game rank).
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 28 | #24 | #75 | -14 | East Carolina | W 24–17 144 | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 6 | #28 | #66 | -2.5 | Virginia | W 35–31 131 | 2-0 | 1-0 |
| 3 | Sep 11 | #26 | #108 | -7 | @Wake Forest | W 34–24 133 | 3-0 | 2-0 |
| 4 | Sep 20 | #29 | #69 | +3.5 | @Duke | L 33–45 137 | 3-1 | 2-1 |
| 5 | Sep 27 | #34 | #62 | -10.5 | Virginia Tech | L 21–23 129 | 3-2 | 2-2 |
| 6 | Oct 4 | #43 | #245 | -41.5 | Campbell | W 56–10 60 | 4-2 | 2-2 |
| 7 | Oct 11 | #31 | #3 | +24.5 | @Notre Dame | L 7–36 127 | 4-3 | 2-2 |
| 9 | Oct 25 | #39 | #34 | +5 | @Pittsburgh | L 34–53 142 | 4-4 | 2-3 |
| 10 | Nov 1 | #39 | #30 | +4 | Georgia TechTop 10 win | W 48–36 137 | 5-4 | 3-3 |
| 12 | Nov 15 | #34 | #10 | +16.5 | @Miami | L 7–41 120 | 5-5 | 3-4 |
| 13 | Nov 22 | #53 | #46 | +6.5 | Florida State | W 21–11 134 | 6-5 | 4-4 |
| 14 | Nov 30 | #48 | #127 | -7.5 | North Carolina | W 42–19 132 | 7-5 | 5-4 |
| Bowl Season | ||||||||
| 16 | Dec 19 | #44 | #58 | -3.5 | Memphis (N) | W 31–7 | 8-5 | 5-4 |
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)▼
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 19 | Memphis | W 31–7 | — | — | — | +0.066 | 32.3% | 160.1% | |
| Nov 30 | North Carolina | W 42–19 | 386 | 0 | 32:59 | +0.418 | 52.1% | 119.5% | |
| Nov 22 | Florida State | W 21–11 | 286 | 0 | 32:57 | +0.077 | 42.0% | 107.6% | |
| Nov 15 | @Miami | L 7–41 | 143 | 2 | 23:17 | -0.152 | 20.0% | 123.1% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Nov 1 | Georgia Tech | W 48–36 | 583 | 0 | 31:25 | +0.520 | 52.9% | 144.8% | |
| Oct 25 | @Pittsburgh | L 34–53 | 445 | 1 | 25:04 | +0.328 | 35.0% | 195.9% | Most explosive |
| Oct 11 | @Notre Dame | L 7–36 | 233 | 3 | 28:47 | -0.062 | 28.8% | 138.9% | Blowout loss |
| Oct 4 | Campbell | W 56–10 | 607 | 2 | 27:00 | +0.634 | 59.3% | 153.0% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 27 | Virginia Tech | L 21–23 | 302 | 0 | 30:11 | +0.259 | 41.5% | 127.4% | One-score loss |
| Sep 20 | @Duke | L 33–45 | 535 | 4 | 32:29 | +0.280 | 47.2% | 138.3% | |
| Sep 11 | @Wake Forest | W 34–24 | 406 | 0 | 38:05 | +0.118 | 40.8% | 129.7% | |
| Sep 6 | Virginia | W 35–31 | 420 | 0 | 27:35 | +0.446 | 51.7% | 124.0% | One-score win |
| Aug 28 | East Carolina | W 24–17 | 423 | 1 | 32:07 | +0.178 | 40.6% | 140.3% | One-score win |
| Season average (13 games) | 397 | 1.1 | +0.239 | 41.9% | 138.7% | ||||
How They Play · 2025
How They Play · 2025NC State fields a strong explosive, big-play offense behind a leaky, gives up the big play defense.
Opponent-adjusted percentiles vs all FBS. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Team identity · competitive snaps only
How NC State actually scores
86th percentile quality, 23rd percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 86th | 11th |
| Akron | 12th | 89th |
| Alabama | 58th | 17th |
| App State | 35th | 47th |
| Arizona | 64th | 37th |
| Arizona State | 41st | 62nd |
| Arkansas | 90th | 12th |
| Arkansas State | 17th | 66th |
| Army | 57th | 43rd |
| Auburn | 47th | 53rd |
| BYU | 78th | 19th |
| Baylor | 69th | 25th |
| Boise State | 66th | 20th |
| Boston College | 37th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 2nd | 98th |
| Buffalo | 11th | 88th |
| California | 28th | 48th |
| Central Michigan | 52nd | 64th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 16th |
| Clemson | 51st | 48th |
| Coastal Carolina | 17th | 83rd |
| Colorado | 18th | 84th |
| Colorado State | 16th | 83rd |
| Delaware | 38th | 58th |
| Duke | 80th | 14th |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 36th |
| Eastern Michigan | 49th | 42nd |
| Florida | 30th | 67th |
| Florida Atlantic | 62nd | 59th |
| Florida International | 42nd | 50th |
| Florida State | 83rd | 32nd |
| Fresno State | 26th | 73rd |
| Georgia | 81st | 3rd |
| Georgia Southern | 73rd | 21st |
| Georgia State | 36th | 70th |
| Georgia Tech | 84th | 5th |
| Hawai'i | 64th | 41st |
| Houston | 27th | 65th |
| Illinois | 75th | 26th |
| Indiana | 95th | 1st |
| Iowa | 44th | 40th |
| Iowa State | 68th | 22nd |
| Jacksonville State | 54th | 38th |
| James Madison | 65th | 44th |
| Kansas | 85th | 28th |
| Kansas State | 71st | 49th |
| Kennesaw State | 56th | 30th |
| Kent State | 21st | 86th |
| Kentucky | 15th | 85th |
| LSU | 14th | 81st |
| Liberty | 43rd | 56th |
| Louisiana | 19th | 73rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 39th | 61st |
| Louisville | 48th | 64th |
| Marshall | 55th | 39th |
| Maryland | 30th | 74th |
| Memphis | 80th | 24th |
| Miami | 76th | 5th |
| Miami (OH) | 34th | 67th |
| Michigan | 67th | 33rd |
| Michigan State | 27th | 75th |
| Middle Tennessee | 39th | 52nd |
| Minnesota | 29th | 77th |
| Mississippi State | 22nd | 77th |
| Missouri | 61st | 30th |
| Missouri State | 55th | 46th |
| NC State | 86th | 23rd |
| Navy | 94th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 48th | 57th |
| Nevada | 3rd | 97th |
| New Mexico | 58th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 9th | 87th |
| North Carolina | 13th | 89th |
| North Texas | 98th | 7th |
| Northern Illinois | 8th | 92nd |
| Northwestern | 52nd | 36th |
| Notre Dame | 99th | 20th |
| Ohio | 67th | 18th |
| Ohio State | 93rd | 4th |
| Oklahoma | 20th | 80th |
| Oklahoma State | 5th | 95th |
| Old Dominion | 83rd | 45th |
| Ole Miss | 89th | 2nd |
| Oregon | 91st | 10th |
| Oregon State | 2nd | 98th |
| Penn State | 73rd | 33rd |
| Pittsburgh | 60th | 39th |
| Purdue | 25th | 78th |
| Rice | 6th | 94th |
| Rutgers | 70th | 27th |
| SMU | 74th | 42nd |
| Sam Houston | 4th | 96th |
| San Diego State | 24th | 76th |
| San José State | 45th | 69th |
| South Alabama | 36th | 58th |
| South Carolina | 23rd | 86th |
| South Florida | 87th | 23rd |
| Southern Miss | 40th | 55th |
| Stanford | 10th | 90th |
| Syracuse | 5th | 95th |
| TCU | 72nd | 35th |
| Temple | 70th | 34th |
| Tennessee | 96th | 11th |
| Texas | 45th | 55th |
| Texas A&M | 82nd | 14th |
| Texas State | 92nd | 8th |
| Texas Tech | 77th | 31st |
| Toledo | 50th | 61st |
| Troy | 14th | 80th |
| Tulane | 79th | 15th |
| Tulsa | 20th | 70th |
| UAB | 61st | 45th |
| UCF | 33rd | 82nd |
| UCLA | 23rd | 79th |
| UConn | 95th | 13th |
| UL Monroe | 11th | 92nd |
| UNLV | 88th | 9th |
| USC | 98th | 2nd |
| UTEP | 1st | 99th |
| UTSA | 77th | 51st |
| Utah | 97th | 6th |
| Utah State | 46th | 63rd |
| Vanderbilt | 100th | 0th |
| Virginia | 59th | 27th |
| Virginia Tech | 32nd | 71st |
| Wake Forest | 42nd | 72nd |
| Washington | 92nd | 8th |
| Washington State | 33rd | 52nd |
| West Virginia | 7th | 93rd |
| Western Kentucky | 53rd | 29th |
| Western Michigan | 31st | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 0th | 100th |
| Wyoming | 8th | 91st |
Fourth-quarter reliability, corrected
NC State's 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 21st percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it climbs to the 42nd — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
Does NC State hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?
58th percentile success on standard downs, 71st on passing downs — little dropoff between the two — a schedule-independent identity.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 82nd | 69th |
| Akron | 20th | 36th |
| Alabama | 47th | 76th |
| App State | 41st | 80th |
| Arizona | 54th | 54th |
| Arizona State | 40th | 37th |
| Arkansas | 90th | 97th |
| Arkansas State | 51st | 40th |
| Army | 37th | 44th |
| Auburn | 73rd | 24th |
| Austin Peay | 56th | 13th |
| BYU | 91st | 46th |
| Ball State | 5th | 3rd |
| Baylor | 70th | 77th |
| Boise State | 42nd | 63rd |
| Boston College | 56th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 10th | 17th |
| Bryant | 7th | 2nd |
| Buffalo | 29th | 20th |
| California | 25th | 66th |
| Central Michigan | 57th | 11th |
| Charlotte | 7th | 7th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 65th |
| Clemson | 49th | 34th |
| Coastal Carolina | 16th | 22nd |
| Colorado | 8th | 48th |
| Colorado State | 29th | 35th |
| Delaware | 66th | 31st |
| Duke | 82nd | 63rd |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 91st |
| Eastern Michigan | 46th | 67th |
| Florida | 52nd | 45th |
| Florida Atlantic | 44th | 61st |
| Florida International | 50th | 26th |
| Florida State | 65th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 22nd | 71st |
| Georgia | 95th | 69th |
| Georgia Southern | 64th | 84th |
| Georgia State | 22nd | 75th |
| Georgia Tech | 92nd | 89th |
| Hawai'i | 33rd | 87th |
| Houston | 61st | 29th |
| Idaho | 30th | 78th |
| Idaho State | 93rd | 14th |
| Illinois | 79th | 95th |
| Indiana | 97th | 98th |
| Iowa | 74th | 19th |
| Iowa State | 80th | 58th |
| Jacksonville State | 59th | 56th |
| James Madison | 77th | 52nd |
| Kansas | 99th | 82nd |
| Kansas State | 37th | 59th |
| Kennesaw State | 44th | 67th |
| Kent State | 15th | 5th |
| Kentucky | 62nd | 29th |
| LSU | 18th | 52nd |
| Lafayette | 0th | 12th |
| Liberty | 65th | 53rd |
| Lindenwood | 4th | 1st |
| Long Island University | 24th | 78th |
| Louisiana | 24th | 23rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 41st | 24th |
| Louisville | 84th | 32nd |
| Maine | 3rd | 18th |
| Marshall | 71st | 62nd |
| Maryland | 11th | 86th |
| Massachusetts | 5th | 9th |
| Memphis | 75th | 68th |
| Merrimack | 1st | 83rd |
| Miami | 80th | 64th |
| Miami (OH) | 33rd | 39th |
| Michigan | 73rd | 74th |
| Michigan State | 48th | 39th |
| Middle Tennessee | 69th | 47th |
| Minnesota | 35th | 33rd |
| Mississippi State | 52nd | 35th |
| Missouri | 76th | 50th |
| Missouri State | 32nd | 50th |
| Murray State | 1st | 6th |
| NC State | 58th | 71st |
| Navy | 95th | 72nd |
| Nebraska | 78th | 51st |
| Nevada | 17th | 16th |
| New Mexico | 38th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 16th | 33rd |
| North Carolina | 14th | 30th |
| North Texas | 100th | 97th |
| Northern Illinois | 9th | 5th |
| Northwestern | 48th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 88th | 99th |
| Ohio | 69th | 76th |
| Ohio State | 99th | 99th |
| Oklahoma | 39th | 41st |
| Oklahoma State | 14th | 7th |
| Old Dominion | 72nd | 79th |
| Ole Miss | 83rd | 95th |
| Oregon | 93rd | 55th |
| Oregon State | 54th | 25th |
| Penn State | 76th | 73rd |
| Pittsburgh | 35th | 56th |
| Purdue | 46th | 88th |
| Rice | 20th | 0th |
| Rutgers | 71st | 84th |
| SMU | 50th | 57th |
| Sam Houston | 26th | 4th |
| San Diego State | 84th | 1st |
| San José State | 68th | 70th |
| South Alabama | 53rd | 28th |
| South Carolina | 31st | 8th |
| South Carolina State | 10th | 3rd |
| South Florida | 86th | 46th |
| Southern Miss | 27th | 38th |
| Stanford | 12th | 12th |
| Syracuse | 19th | 10th |
| TCU | 63rd | 82nd |
| Temple | 85th | 22nd |
| Tennessee | 97th | 81st |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 88th | 59th |
| Texas State | 60th | 93rd |
| Texas Tech | 45th | 65th |
| Toledo | 67th | 42nd |
| Troy | 18th | 27th |
| Tulane | 81st | 86th |
| Tulsa | 43rd | 43rd |
| UAB | 34th | 94th |
| UCF | 39th | 20th |
| UCLA | 28th | 48th |
| UConn | 96th | 37th |
| UL Monroe | 13th | 14th |
| UNLV | 78th | 85th |
| USC | 94th | 90th |
| UT Martin | 2nd | 41st |
| UTEP | 3rd | 10th |
| UTSA | 67th | 92nd |
| Utah | 87th | 96th |
| Utah State | 31st | 49th |
| Vanderbilt | 90th | 100th |
| Virginia | 36th | 73rd |
| Virginia Tech | 59th | 21st |
| Wake Forest | 21st | 31st |
| Washington | 98th | 93rd |
| Washington State | 61st | 44th |
| West Virginia | 12th | 18th |
| Western Kentucky | 55th | 80th |
| Western Michigan | 86th | 16th |
| Wisconsin | 6th | 27th |
| Wyoming | 23rd | 15th |
Halftime identity
NC State by half
1st-half offense ranks 94th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 49th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
Schedule mirage
How much of NC State's number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.24; 82nd percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.06. The widest gap came in week 2: 0.31 raw vs. 0.04 adjusted.
NC State reads strongest in explosive plays (top 8%) and epa / play (top 21%); the crux lives in explosive plays allowed, where NC State sits at the 7th percentile.
offense · strengths lead
defense · higher bar = harder to play against
hidden math · special situations
ELITE · 90+STRONG · 70+AVERAGE · 40-70CONCERN · 10-40BOTTOM · <10
Most Similar Programs · NC State
Most Similar Programs · NC StateReads Like
AkronTier 3 · Prestige T3 · Similarly-sized rosters up frontApp StateTier 3 · Prestige T3 · Similarly-sized rosters up frontArizonaTier 3 · Prestige T3 · Similarly-sized rosters up front
Static-attribute similarity across tier, archetype, conference, and voice. Not a prediction — a calibration.
Home-Field Advantage · NC State · 2018-present
Elite
78% home win rate vs 43% on the road. margin runs +16.2 better at home. Carter-Finley Stadium seats 58,000, averaging 98% full (56,817 attendance, 27 games reported).
Home43-12Away17-22
Positional competition · RB room
The carries are split. The job isn’t.
Daylan Smothers and Jayden Scott split the carries (157/262 vs 105/262) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Jayden Scott produces in bigger chunks.
Daylan SmothersJayden Scott
Carries
the baseline -- every row below is tested against this split, not a flat 50/50
Q4, leading (competitive)
shared -- dots touch, this room really is a committee here
Targets
shared -- dots touch, this room really is a committee here
Top-5-carry share
concentration and EPA/carry agree -- a real boom/bust split
Screened 3 claims, 1 survived, 2 falsified
Positional competition · WR/TE room
The targets are split. The job isn’t.
Noah Rogers (WR) and Justin Joly (TE) split the targets (47/106 vs 59/106) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Noah Rogers produces mainly when the game's already decided; Noah Rogers produces in bigger chunks.
Noah RogersJustin Joly
Targets
the baseline -- every row below is tested against this split, not a flat 50/50
3rd-down targets
shared -- dots touch, this room really is a committee here
Garbage-time share
p = 0.041 -- real, not noise
Top-5-catch share
concentration and EPA/target agree -- a real boom/bust split
Screened 3 claims, 2 survived, 1 falsified
What changed
NC State’s play-calling, before and after the change
Offense: Robert Anae (2023–2024) → Kurt Roper (2025)
The biggest shift: 1st-down pass rate moved down 7 points. The rest held closer to steady.
1st-down pass rate
Red-zone pass rate
Defense: Tony Gibson (2020–2024) → co-Charlton Warren / D. J. Eliot (2025)
The biggest shift: 1st-down pass rate moved down 7 points. The rest held closer to steady.
1st-down pass rate
Red-zone pass rate
Defensive identity · pass zones
What this defense gives up, by zone.
On short passes, NC State’s defense allows a completion rate above the FBS mean (67.2% vs 65.9% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 170-play sample) — mid-pack, 96 of 133 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball leaderboard here: at the defense level, most teams face well under 30 rich-feed deep targets all season — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess.
Screened 133 claims, 133 survived · 2025 only, in the 399 games with the detailed play-text feed; n=170 short-zone plays faced, raw rate 68.2%
Venue texture
68°F average kickoff temp; 4% of games had measurable precipitation; 6 mph average wind.
Based on 81 home games with weather data.
The CFP Era
12 seasons inside the CFP era, no bids yet — the era the program is still trying to break into.
TRAJECTORY · quality-score line · AP rank dotted · CFP bids marked · coach regimes ribboned
Program Quality
AP Rank (inverted)
CFP Appearance
NC State's 2014–2025 record is 92-60. The era is still being written; the CFP line is the one the program is arguing for.
All-Time Record
631-595-48
since 1902 · 124 seasons · .495 win rate
HOME
405-222-20
AWAY
208-352-27
NEUTRAL
18-21-1
1900s
1910s
1920s
1930s
1940s
1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
The program, in full — read the essay
Philip Rivers. Russell Wilson. Mike Glennon. Three starting NFL quarterbacks developed in the same building in Raleigh — and not one ACC championship since 1979 to show for any of it.
NC State is the program that built one of the most legitimate quarterback pipelines in ACC history and has never once parlayed it into a conference title. Rivers rewrote the school record book and went to the NFL's Hall of Fame. Wilson won the ACC Rookie of the Year award before leaving and then won a Super Bowl at his next stop. Glennon played eight NFL seasons. The talent has always been real; the championship conversion has not. Dave Doeren's 'Brick by Brick' philosophy — now in its 14th year — has produced the program's all-time wins record and a decade of eight-and-nine-win seasons, without breaking through the ceiling that sits just above NC State's head.
The offseason chapter entering 2026 is actually an optimistic one. Sophomore QB CJ Bailey threw for 3,105 yards and 31 total touchdowns in 2025 (8-5, a Gasparilla Bowl win over Memphis 31-7) and chose to return rather than test the portal. For a program whose quarterback history is its greatest asset and whose recent years have featured transfer-dependent rosters, a developed in-house signal-caller who wants to stay is a meaningful data point. Doeren is back for year 14 as the program's all-time wins leader, and the 1979 ACC drought — the longest in the conference — remains on the board.
The 2026 question is whether CJ Bailey's development curve bends into something the league has to respect by November. The ACC title has been unreachable for 47 years not because Raleigh lacks quarterbacks but because the late-season wins over ranked opponents haven't stacked. That is the specific test the 2026 schedule will administer: can a Wolfpack team with a returning sophomore quarterback close a conference run rather than finishing one win short of the moment that finally changes the conversation?
How they play
Quarterback-driven and defensively structured under Dave Doeren — 'Brick by Brick' is not a slogan, it's a timeline. NC State recruits and develops quarterbacks the way other ACC programs recruit skill-position athletes, cycling through a system that prized long-term learning over immediate production. The defense is the foundation: physical, well-coached, and reliably in the top half of the ACC across Doeren's tenure. The offense is designed to protect the quarterback and generate chunk plays, not to outscore anyone in a track meet.
Steady
NC State 2016–2025. Holding the line. The 10-year slope (+0.05 rungs / yr) doesn't tilt either way — the program lives at roughly Tier 4.
CFP Era · NC State
12 seasons on file
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
down middle peak CFP year
Season Standing · 2025 · 8-5
Season Standing · 2025 · 8-5Bowl eligible
NC State: 6+ wins, bowl access secured. The baseline of a successful FBS year.
R0R1R2R3R4R5R6R7R8R9
Sub-FBSBuildingBowlRankedContenderPlayoff
ACC Standing · 2025
7th in the ACC
NC State is 7th of 17 in the ACC at 5-4. The path to the title is steep — the focus is on bowl access and rivalry wins.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Duke | 7-2 |
| 2 | Virginia | 7-3 |
| 3 | Georgia Tech | 6-2 |
| 4 | Miami | 6-2 |
| 5 | Pittsburgh | 6-2 |
| 6 | SMU | 6-2 |
| 7 | NC State | 5-4 |
| 8 | California | 4-4 |
| 9 | Clemson | 4-4 |
| 10 | Louisville | 4-4 |
| 11 | Wake Forest | 4-4 |
| 12 | Stanford | 3-5 |
| 13 | Florida State | 2-6 |
| 14 | North Carolina | 2-6 |
| 15 | Virginia Tech | 2-6 |
| 16 | Boston College | 1-7 |
| 17 | Syracuse | 1-7 |
Coaching Era · NC State
Coaching Era · NC StateDave Doeren
Dave Doeren into year 13 — a multi-decade era by modern CFB standards.
Era Dave Doeren · 2014–presentOC: Kurt RoperPrev OC: Robert Anae (2023–2024)DC: co-Charlton Warren / D. J. EliotPrev DC: Tony Gibson (2020–2024)
13
years · era
Rituals
Three gameday rituals — the ones outsiders never quite catch.
Howl
since 1940s
Wolfpack fans howl — a long 'awoooooo!' sustained through scoring drives and after big plays. The most-distinctive auditory identity in the ACC. Spreads across the stadium in waves; visiting QBs cite Carter-Finley's howl as among the conference's most-disorienting noise.
Tuffy the Wolf
since 1947
Tuffy is the costumed gray wolf mascot. The Wolfpack name itself comes from a 1922 student commentary describing the agriculture-school's football team as 'as unruly as a wolf pack.' The identity stuck and became permanent.
Brick by Brick
since 2013
Dave Doeren's 'Brick by Brick' culture-building mantra (2013-present) frames the program's modern identity — methodical building, player development, sustained 8-9 win cycles. Reflects the agricultural-school heritage NC State leans into.
Program memory
What this program never forgets
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
The 1979 ACC title
NC State beats Duke to claim the conference — the last ACC championship Raleigh has won
2011
Wilson's departure
Russell Wilson leaves for Wisconsin amid a baseball/coaching standoff, then wins a Rose Bowl elsewhere — the one who got away
Heartbreak
Moment of the Year · NC State · 2025
Moment of the Year · NC State · 2025Postseason · Won 31-7 vs Memphis
Week 16 of 2025. Postseason win — the season-defining moment.
Bowl / Postseason Ledger
Bowl / Postseason LedgerRecent postseason (2014-2025): 4-6
Most recent: 2025 — win 31-7 (home). Last 5 postseason: 1-4.
20252024202320222020
NFL Draft Pipeline
2022–2026
NFL Draft PipelineSteady
8 picks last 5 cycles. Reliable mid-tier pipeline.
8
picks · 1 R1
#6
Ikem Ekwonu
Offensive Tackle · 2022 · Carolina
#54
Anthony Belton
Offensive Tackle · 2025 · Green Bay
#98
Payton Wilson
Linebacker · 2024 · Pittsburgh · #1/577 final season
#41 all-time · 18 first-round picksthe talent factory →
Unit lineage
NC State’s offense and defense, by coordinator
FBS-relative efficiency percentile per season (2014–2025), same population as the Coordinator Mirror board. Dashed vertical lines mark a coordinator change.
Offense2014–2025
2014–2015 · Matt Canada2016–2018 · Eliah Drinkwitz2019 · co-George McDonald / co-Desmond Kitchings2020 · co-George McDonald / Tim Beck2021–2022 · Tim Beck2023–2024 · Robert Anae2025 (ongoing) · Kurt Roper
Defense2014–2025
2014–2017 · co-Dave Huxtable2018 · co-Ted Roof / co-Dave Huxtable2019 · co-Tony Gibson / co-Dave Huxtable2020–2024 · Tony Gibson2025 (ongoing) · co-Charlton Warren / D. J. Eliot
Elite (≥70th pct)AveragePoor (≤30th pct)
Chronicle Visuals
Among the most continuous rosters into 2025 — 95% back, anchored by the qb room, only offense to settle.
The portal upgraded the TE room but opened a hole at S.
2 players drafted in 2026; the reload runs through the portal and recruiting.
NC State sits where recruit talent and draft yield largely match.
r/cfb moments
1.2k
[Postgame Thread] NC State Defeats ECU 21-20
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