cfb zeitgeistZeitgeist
OFFSEASON · SUMMER 2026 · COMMITMENT SEASON
Heisman / Players / Jamel Johnson /NC State

Jamel Johnson

CB · NC State · Sr · #21

Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.

27 TACKLES · 0 SACKS

2026 RETURNINGReturning to NC State for 2026

2026 Outlook

Returning to NC State for 2026

2026 Depth chart

Projected starter

Cornerback · NC State

Returning around him

  • 95% of 2024 offensive production back (Strong continuity)
  • 2 NC State players drafted to NFL
  • Transfer portal: -2 net (20 in / 22 out)

2026 Award watch

No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)

NC State · Last season: 8-5 · Talent rank #45 · 2026 recruiting class #34

CB · NC STATE · ACC

Jamel Johnson

  • 4
  • #21
  • 5-11 | 191 lb
  • Covington, GA

CFB Zeitgeist Score

42

Mid-pack in the position cohort. Carried by passes defended at the 91st percentile.

Heisman Heat

#11920

<1% win probability

Fan Belief

Awaiting

Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.

Respect Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

Reality Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

ACCOLADE PROBABILITY

Heisman

<1%

TOP DB AWARD

Jim Thorpe

CONSENSUS

All-American

Player Standing · 17 rungs

Tier 1 · 2-deep

R04 · Rotational

Rotational. Earning real snaps in the rotation.

Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Career Arc

HS
Recruit
No recruit profile
CFB
College
2 teams
2024–2025
NFL
NFL Draft
Not drafted (yet)

Heisman futures · live sportsbook odds

#29 in market ▼ from #23 · 5 books

+35002.8% implied▲ tightened from +6600

Identity & Role

The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.

PositionCB
Class4
Jersey21
Measurements5-11 | 191 lb
HometownCovington, GA
Primary teamNC State

Recruiting Pedigree

How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.

Top pedigree Not on file No matched recruiting profile in the loaded archive
Composite rating -- Composite rating unavailable for this player
Signed with -- Commitment history unavailable
Origin -- Hometown and high school unavailable
Class Profile Context
No recruiting profile is on file for this player.

Transfer Arc

Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.

Portal moves 0 No portal entry on file
Latest destination -- --
Transfer stars -- CFBD transfer rating context
Eligibility -- Transfer date TBD
Season Move Context
No transfer portal moves on file for this player.

Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final

Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.

HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16
Current nowcast#11920Latest modeled ballot order
Season forecast#12690Where the full season sim points
Win probability0.0%Chance to actually win the trophy
Finalist probability0.0%Chance to make the finalist tier
Ballot probability0.0%Chance to appear anywhere on a ballot
Best official finish--Best completed Heisman placement on file

Heisman Futures

Not yet listed on major futures markets.

No achievements unlocked yet this season.

Selector Grid · 2025

AP
FWAA
AFCA
WCFF
SN
SI

Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.

Today’s Hot-Take

The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.

Anti-Take

PENDING

The contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.

The Room on Jamel Johnson

Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal

The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.

Cohort divergence map

Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.

Rival Radar

How rival fanbases talk about Jamel Johnson

No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.

Signature Story

Awaiting candidate metric

He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.

Signature Moment

No signature moment on the ledger yet.

Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.

A 3-act season arc returns once this player has six or more games on the ledger.

Season Pace · Projection

Where the defensive totals stand

projecting to 13-game
Through 9g
27Tackles
1Tackles for loss
0Sacks
Per game
3Tackles
0.1Tackles for loss
0Sacks
Projected (13g)
39Tackles
1.4Tackles for loss
0Sacks

To hit 80-tackle season (currently 27): needs 13.2/game over remaining 4.

To hit 100-tackle season (currently 27): needs 18.2/game over remaining 4.

To hit 6-sack season (currently 0): needs 1.5/game over remaining 4.

To hit 10-sack season (currently 0): needs 2.5/game over remaining 4.

Why this is a rare defensive case

The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.

Jamel Johnson is trying to climb the steepest award hill in college football: a defensive candidacy. The hook is the disruption profile on NC State's defense, with 0.0 sacks, 1.0 tackles for loss, and -- interceptions through the current loaded season. For a defender, the question is never just production; it is whether elite disruption and team context can become nationally undeniable.

Current place #11920 0.0% win | 0.0% finalist
Role load -- Role share still loading
Profile quirk Transfer path 0 portal moves

2025 Season · Final

Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.

Last season

DEF season snapshot

2025 season snapshot | final

2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Total tackles 27 15 solo | #1543/4942 (69th pct)
TFL 1.0 Backfield disruption | #2051/4972 (59th pct)
Sacks 0.0 Pass-rush finish | #1762/4972 (65th pct)
Player identity What kind of player is this?

30-second read

What kind of player is this?

Coverage splash against FBS defenders.

Coverage splash

2025 Season · Final

2025 season snapshot | final

Tackling & Disruption

TOT
27 69th
SOLO
15 69th
TFL
1.0 59th
SACK
0.0 65th

Coverage & Takeaways

PD
5 90th

Game Log · Week-by-week

2025 season · 9 games

Box score · CFBD
WkOppTKLSOLOTFLSACKINTPDNote
Wk 1W 24-17vs East Carolina551.00.00
Wk 2W 35-31vs Virginia210.00.00
Wk 4L 33-45@ Duke420.00.00
Wk 5L 21-23vs Virginia Tech000.00.03
Wk 6W 56-10vs Campbell210.00.00
Wk 7L 7-36@ Notre Dame300.00.01
Wk 9L 34-53@ Pittsburgh620.00.01Season-high 6 tackles
Wk 10W 48-36vs Georgia Tech210.00.00
Wk 12L 7-41@ Miami330.00.00
Total27151.00.05
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score

Traditional history

Traditional Stats

Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.

Season rows Career row

Season context · Team result + system

2024Temple3-9HC: Everett Withers · Balanced
2025NC State8-5HC: Dave Doeren · Balanced
SeasonTeam
2025NC State27151.00.05----
2024Temple47382.50.092--
Career2 loaded seasons74533.50.0142--
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context

Advanced metrics second

Advanced Metrics

Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.

Usage Value Context
Disruption stats

TFL, sacks, and QB hurries are grouped together because defensive Heisman cases are usually built on visible havoc, not on tackle counts alone.

Coverage splash

Pass breakups, interceptions, and forced fumbles matter because national awards voters respond to plays that change possessions and highlight reels.

Peer percentile

Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.

Traditional first

The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.

INT -- -- pick-six TD
Pass breakups 5 Coverage disruption | #218/2184 (90th pct)
QB pressures 0 Quarterback hurries
Open full stat explorer
0 metrics visible Showing all metrics
Group Metric Value Rank Pct Why it matters
Defense Total tackles 27 #1543/4942 69th pct Volumevs FBS DEF
Defense TFL 1.0 #2051/4972 59th pct Disruptionvs FBS DEF
Defense Sacks 0.0 #1762/4972 65th pct Disruptionvs FBS DEF
Defense Pass breakups 5 #218/2184 90th pct Coveragevs FBS DEF
Defense Solo tackles 15 #1434/4584 69th pct Volumevs FBS DEF

Player Standing

Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION

On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16

Why he’s here

Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.

What moves him up

What moves him down

Accolade streams

StatusAwaiting tracker

The Thorpe award tracker integrates per-week probability once a dedicated scraper for this award lands. Confirmed past winners and finalists for this player will surface here.

Splits · Per-game

2025 season · 9 games

Home/Road · Win/Loss · Season halves

Home vs Road

TKL/gTFL/gSACK/gPD/g
Home5g2.20.20.00.6
Road4g4.00.00.00.5

Win vs Loss

TKL/gTFL/gSACK/gPD/g
Wins4g2.80.20.00.0
Losses5g3.20.00.01.0

First half vs Second half

TKL/gTFL/gSACK/gPD/g
Weeks 1-76g2.70.20.00.7
Weeks 8+3g3.70.00.00.3

Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.

Savant · Box-rate percentiles

Where this profile ranks vs the CB cohort

42Mid-pack
6 metrics · season cumulative

Elite: passes defended (90th). Concern: qb hurries (22nd).

Passes defended#218 / 2975 · 91st pct
5defe
Solo tackles#1434 / 2975 · 50th pct
15defe
Tackles#1543 / 2975 · 47th pct
27defe
Tackles for loss#1936 / 2975 · 28th pct
1.0defe
Sacks#1575 / 2975 · 24th pct
0.0defe
QB hurries#1662 / 2975 · 22nd pct
0defe

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.

Advanced Savant · CB · 2024

Percentile Card

Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.

P4G5All FBS
EPA / dropback
awaiting
CPOE
awaiting
Success rate
awaiting
Explosive rate (20+)
awaiting
aDOT
awaiting
Deep-ball accuracy
awaiting
Pressure-to-sack
awaiting
3rd-down EPA
awaiting
Red-zone TD rate
awaiting
Play-action EPA
awaiting
Scramble EPA
awaiting
Turnover-worthy play rate
awaiting

Advanced Savant

Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.

Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.

Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match

Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile

3 peers · 6 metrics
Jamel JohnsonNC StateTyler MartinMassachusetts· 69% simTahj Ra-ElPurdue· 69% simDalton JohnsonArizona· 67% sim
Passes defended
91
Johnson
67
Martin
91
Ra-El
96
Johnson
Solo tackles
50
Johnson
87
Martin
100
Ra-El
97
Johnson
Tackles
47
Johnson
98
Martin
99
Ra-El
98
Johnson
Tackles for loss
28
Johnson
63
Martin
56
Ra-El
47
Johnson
Sacks
24
Johnson
24
Martin
24
Ra-El
63
Johnson
QB hurries
22
Johnson
22
Martin
22
Ra-El
22
Johnson

Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.

Player DNA

The Cover Corner

Steady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play.

CB

His 2025 production profile sits closest to Kaleb Ford-Dement’s 2023 season.

Kaleb Ford-Dement

88%match

Texas State · 2023

#2

Toriano Pride

Missouri · 2025

87%
#3

Deuce Harmon

SMU · 2024

86%
#4

Kalon Gervin

Kansas · 2022

85%
#5

Donte Martin

New Mexico · 2022

85%

Matches Kaleb on

PD rate
Height
Weight

Not enough data yet for this comparison.

As a junior, his production profile tracks closest to Alexander Smith's junior season at Wisconsin (2023).

Alexander Smith

98%match

Wisconsin · 2023

#2

Toriano Pride

Missouri · 2024

96%
#3

Quinten Johnson

Michigan · 2023

92%
#4

Bralyn Lux

Fresno State · 2022

92%
#5

Juawan Treadwell

Liberty · 2022

90%

Matches Alexander on

Class year
Height
PD rate

Supporting Cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2025 season

Head Coach

Dave Doeren

Pass share

49.7%

411 pass / 416 run

Plays / game

63.6

13 games

OL sack rate (allowed)

6.5%

307 dropbacks · PBP

Scheme: Balanced.

Coaching Lineage · 2024–2025

1 coach
2024
Dave Doeren
NC State
2025
Dave Doeren
NC State

Played his entire career under Dave Doeren.

Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster

Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.

HometownCovington, GA
Height5'11"
Weight191 lb
Class4
PositionCB
Jersey21

Trophy Case · Detail

Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.

Honors

No formal honors on the ledger yet

All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.

Honors Timeline

Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.

Season Honor Scope Team / Selector Context
No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned.

Heisman By Year

Modeled rank and official finish by season.

Season Team Role Latest Model Forecast Win Finalist Official Finish Points Context
2024 Temple CB4 #11920 #12690 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W16 snapshot | American Athletic

Roster Timeline

Team, conference, and class by season.

Season Team Conference Pos Class Bio
2025 NC State ACC CB 4 No. 21 | 5-11 | 191 lb | Covington, GA
2024 Temple American Athletic CB 4 No. 21 | 5-11 | 191 lb | Covington, GA