NC State 31-10 California (Oct 31, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: California · NC State

California3-610

NC State4-431Final

Sat, Oct 31 · Carter-Finley Stadium, Raleigh, N.C. · Crowd 52,933

NC State beat California 31-10.

We had NC State favored. It won.

Next: California at Virginia, Sat Nov 14

Next: NC State vs Duke, Sat Nov 7 · 12:30 PM ET · NC State underdog by 4.5

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave NC State an 80% chance, and the closing betting line (NC State was a 9.5-point favorite) put it at 78%.

Favored the whole way: NC State never fell below 69%.

California never had better than a 30% chance.

FinalNC State 31-10 CaliforniaNC State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

Super chill of that linebacker to just forget about pass coverage

Q1 13:29 · An NC State fan · r/CFB game thread

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q1 13:29NC State fans mock Cal linebacker's lack of coverage on Desinor's touchdown
Q1 4:03California fans celebrate Mohammed's return as Cal struggles to gain first downsGotta love the nc state doomers here. As if cal isn’t looking equally if not worser/CFB game thread
Q2 4:55Bailey fumbles, California recovers; NC State fans lament his NFL prospectsThis is why Bailey will never play in the NFL.r/CFB game thread

NC State’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (NC State -9.5), at 84% for NC State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a NC State or California flair (92 and 174); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show NC State’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

NC State scored on 5 of its 13 drives; California on 2 of its 14.

NC State’s drives are teal, California’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

How fans reacted

Steady

Fans peaked in the opening quarter.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was steady; the crowd was quiet.

Box score

NC State 31, California 10

NC State covered −9.5 by 11.5. The total, 41, stayed under 56.5.

Team totals	California	NC State
Total yards	269	327
Passing	29 of 45, 196 yds	13 of 25, 192 yds
Rushing	27 for 73 yds	40 for 135 yds
First downs	15	19
Third down	5 of 18	7 of 15
Fourth down	1 of 3	0 of 0
Turnovers	1	1
Penalties	8 for 81 yds	5 for 48 yds
Time of possession	31:29	28:31

California leaders

Passing Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele 29 of 45, 196 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Rushing Anthony League 3 for 29 yds; Adam Mohammed 9 for 27 yds
Receiving Chase Hendricks 7 for 67 yds, 1 TD; Taimane Purcell 4 for 33 yds

NC State leaders

Passing CJ Bailey 13 of 25, 192 yds, 2 TD
Rushing Davion Gause 19 for 104 yds, 1 TD; Darius Johnson 7 for 14 yds, 1 TD
Receiving Chance Robinson 4 for 76 yds, 1 TD; Deandre Desinor 1 for 49 yds, 1 TD

No rain and calm

62° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 8 mph from the northeast, mostly across the field, gusts to 20

October game-day temperatures at Carter-Finley Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 14:54 left12:03 p.m.

California 0, NC State 0 · NC State 84% to win

no rain · wind 10 mph from the northeast, mostly across the field, gusts to 18 · 62°

Gause 11-yd run

Where this weather comes from

Measured at Raleigh / Durham airport, 7.2 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

California · 3-5

Rated 63rd in our preseason ratings, 132nd now, down 69 spots.

1-2 in its last three, including a 5-point win over Virginia Tech as an 11.5-point underdog.

L 20-59 @ SMUTop 25 No. 27 of 668 teams

lost by 39 as an 18.5-point underdog

L 7-41 vs Wake ForestTop 25 No. 26 of 668 teams

lost by 34 as a 10-point underdog

W 25-20 vs Virginia Tech No. 47 of 668 teams

won by 5 as an 11.5-point underdog

L 31-39 @ UNLV No. 79 of 668 teams

lost by 8 as a 1.5-point underdog

L 10-24 vs Clemson No. 27 of 668 teams

lost by 14 as a 2.5-point underdog

W 49-7 vs Wagner No. 258 of 668 teams

won by 42 as a 58.5-point favorite

W 21-18 @ Syracuse No. 127 of 668 teams

won by 3 as a 4-point underdog

L 24-45 vs UCLATop 25 No. 59 of 668 teams

lost by 21 as a 2.5-point underdog

Last three games

NC State · 3-4

Rated 44th in our preseason ratings, 69th now, down 25 spots.

1-2 in its last three, including a 3-point win over Louisville as a 5.5-point underdog.

L 28-31 @ Stanford No. 130 of 668 teams

lost by 3 as a 7.5-point favorite

L 14-38 vs Wake ForestTop 25 No. 41 of 668 teams

lost by 24 as a 4-point underdog

W 31-28 vs LouisvilleTop 25 No. 50 of 668 teams

won by 3 as a 5.5-point underdog

W 41-31 vs App State No. 92 of 668 teams

won by 10 as a 12.5-point favorite

L 31-35 @ Vanderbilt No. 42 of 668 teams

lost by 4 as a 3-point underdog

W 73-0 vs Richmond No. 166 of 668 teams

won by 73 as a 33.5-point favorite

L 8-34 @ VirginiaTop 25 No. 54 of 668 teams

lost by 26 as a 4-point underdog

Week by week

NC State

Wk 3Lat Vanderbilt31-35
Wk 4Wvs App State41-31
Wk 5Wvs Louisville31-28
Wk 6Lvs Wake Forest14-38
Wk 8Lat Stanford28-31

California

Wk 4Lvs Clemson10-24
Wk 5Lat UNLV31-39
Wk 6Wvs Virginia Tech25-20
Wk 7Lvs Wake Forest7-41
Wk 8Lat SMU20-59

Power rating by week

NC State is rated 5.7 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: California’s rushing EPA against NC State, 55 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

NC State’s EPA/play against California’s defense
NC State offense, 68th percentile · California defense, 17th
California’s rushing EPA against NC State’s defense
California offense, 6th percentile · NC State defense, 61st

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

CaliforniaNC State

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

NC State leads the series 1-0

1 meeting since 2024 · NC State won the last meeting

2024NC State 24-23

Each line is NC State’s chance to win through that meeting.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

NC State fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (76th percentile among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.

NC State favored by 9.5 · Total 56.5

How games like this usually go

NC State by 9.5, and it went to form

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 448 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 1 point toward NC State.

The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

NC State is worth +6.4 points (±3.4) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 87th percentile.

75% at home, 40% on the road against FBS opponents (40-13 home, 17-25 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +5.9 at home vs. away over 102 games — outside the ±5.2 noise, one of the few buildings where results say more.

The visitors travel about 2,390 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.

NC State16th1-3
California12th2-3

Full ACC standings

NC State beats California 31-10