California at SMU
SMU (#23, 5‑1) hosts California (3‑4). The market has SMU favored by 18.5. The model gives SMU a 72% shot. SMU’s offense is at the 67th percentile on explosive plays; California’s defense is at the 3rd.
How they got here
Last three games
California · 3-4
Rated 63rd in our preseason ratings, 113th now, down 50 spots.
1-2 in its last three, including a 5-point win over Virginia Tech as an 11.5-point underdog.
Last three games
SMU · 5-1
Rated 15th in our preseason ratings, 36th now, down 21 spots.
Three straight wins, one over ranked or top-40 competition.
Biggest mismatch: SMU’s explosive plays against California, 64 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
SMU’s explosive plays against California’s defense
SMU offense, 67th percentile · California defense, 3rd
SMU’s EPA/play against California’s defense
SMU offense, 76th percentile · California defense, 22nd
California’s passing EPA against SMU’s defense
California offense, 21st percentile · SMU defense, 74th
What’s at stake
California
- California needs 3 more wins in the final 4 to reach bowl eligibility — 68% to get there with a win here, 31% with a loss.
- California is still shaking off a 34-point loss.
SMU
- SMU is ranked #23, right on the edge of the Top 25.
- SMU is the Pony Express program that survived the death penalty, returned to the ACC in 2024, and went 11-3 with a CFP appearance in year one of the P5 reboot.
The series
SMU leads the series 2-1
3 meetings since 1957 · California won the last meeting
- 2025California 38-35
- 2024SMU 38-6
- 1957SMU 13-6
Each line is SMU’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
California
The chip · vs the national mediaFans here believe old Blues will tell you the rankings forget Cal exists between rivalry weeks — that a school this good at everything else gets written off in football by people who can't name a single thing about the program except a five-lateral play from 1982.
What this game touches
Wilcox out after the slow fade. The 2025 Bears started 4-1 and finished 7-6 with a Hawaii Bowl loss, and the late slide cost Justin Wilcox his job after nine years and a 48-55 record — the longest-tenured coach in the West cut loose, with Oregon's Tosh Lupoi, a Cal alum, hired to start over.
SMU
The chip · vs the national mediaMustang fans are done being a cautionary tale. They'll tell you SMU paid its debt twice over, made the first 12-team Playoff in year one of the ACC, and that anyone still leading with the penalty is forty years behind the program.
Best players
California
- Isaiah Crosby (DB) · 38 tackles
- Chase Hendricks (WR) · 415 receiving yards
- AJ Tuitele (LB) · 34 tackles
SMU
- Kevin Jennings (QB) · 1,859 passing yards — Heisman odds: 19th (+5500)
- Kendrick Raphael (RB) · 542 rushing yards
- Alex Kilgore (LB) · 35 tackles
What to watch
Player to watch: Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (QB) — California’s leading passer (1,290 passing yards) takes on SMU’s pass defense (74th percentile allowed).
The spread has moved 2.0 points toward SMU since opening (−16.5 → −18.5).
The total has moved up 3.0 points since opening (52.5 → 55.5): books now expect more combined points.
The betting line, and the fans
SMU fans are feeling it about like the typical fanbase this week (53rd among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
- Model · 72%
- Line · 93%
- SMU fans · 53rd
- California fans · 25th
SMU favored by 18.5 · Total 55.5
SMU by 18.5: where a favorite like this usually runs
Half of games8 in 10 games
SMU’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 252 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.
Weather at kickoff
Warm. No coat needed.
California at SMU · Saturday, Oct. 24 · noon ET · The CW · Gerald J. Ford Stadium.
- 78°feels like
- 0%average rain chance
- 15 mphwind gusts
- 99weather score, Comfortable
Forecast, read Fri Oct 23, 9:20 am ET. It can change until kickoff.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50. Gusts count toward the score (up to 15 points). Average rain chance: the hourly chances of rain over the first 3 hours and 20 minutes, averaged.
This game among this Saturday's 33 TV games with a forecast
- Baylor at Kansas: 100, Ideal
- Boston College at Georgia Tech: 100, Ideal
- Colorado at Oklahoma State: 100, Ideal
- Eastern Michigan at Ohio: 100, Ideal
- Indiana at Michigan: 100, Ideal
- Iowa State at Arizona: 100, Ideal
- Kansas State at Arizona State: 100, Ideal
- LSU at Auburn: 100, Ideal
- Michigan State at UCLA: 100, Ideal
- North Texas at Navy: 100, Ideal
- Oklahoma at Mississippi State: 100, Ideal
- Oregon at Illinois: 100, Ideal
- Tennessee at South Carolina: 100, Ideal
- Texas A&M at Alabama: 100, Ideal
- Texas Tech at Cincinnati: 100, Ideal
- USC at Wisconsin: 100, Ideal
- UTSA at Tulane: 100, Ideal
- West Virginia at TCU: 100, Ideal
- Western Michigan at Toledo: 100, Ideal
- California at SMU: 99, Comfortable
- Vanderbilt at Kentucky: 98, Comfortable
- Boise State at Washington State: 97, Comfortable
- Iowa at Minnesota: 97, Comfortable
- Utah State at Texas State: 96, Comfortable
- Ole Miss at Texas: 95, Comfortable
- Syracuse at North Carolina: 95, Comfortable
- Virginia Tech at Clemson: 95, Comfortable
- Houston at Utah: 93, Comfortable
- North Dakota State at New Mexico: 93, Comfortable
- San Diego State at Colorado State: 91, Comfortable
- BYU at UCF: 88, Mixed
- Pittsburgh at Miami: 85, Mixed
- Rice at Florida Atlantic: 85, Mixed
Tap a dot to read the game.
Forecast, read Fri Oct 23, 3:20 am to 9:20 am ET (each game has its own read time). It can change until kickoff.
If it kicked off at
Typical at Gerald J. Ford Stadium: noon Saturdays score 81, 3:30 pm 79, 7:30 pm 92.
- noon: 81, Mixed
- 3:30 pm: 79, Mixed
- 7:30 pm: 92, Comfortable
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
SMU is worth +5.5 points (±3.6) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 73rd percentile.
79% at home, 58% on the road against FBS opponents (34-9 home, 30-22 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +5.7 at home vs. away over 102 games — inside the ±5.7 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 1,472 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
SMU
- Wk 2Wvs UC Davis56-10
- Wk 3Lat Louisville31-41
- Wk 4Wvs Missouri State34-24
- Wk 5Wvs Boston College25-16
- Wk 7Wvs Virginia23-13
California
- Wk 3Wvs Wagner49-7
- Wk 4Lvs Clemson10-24
- Wk 5Lat UNLV31-39
- Wk 6Wvs Virginia Tech25-20
- Wk 7Lvs Wake Forest7-41
Power rating by week
SMU is rated 8.8 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The market
The spread moved 2 points toward SMU.
The total rose 3 points.
Spread: −16.5 → −18.5 · Total: 52.5 → 55.5
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
- SMU3rd3-1
- California9th2-2