UCLA3-94Foster's first full portal class in Year 2 addresses OT and LB while replacing Marshall and Johnson — UCLA's patience with roster rebuilding meets its alumni pedigree.
UCLA owns the best zip code in college football and almost never cashes it — then went 0-3, fired its coach, and watched a transfer quarterback nobody expected drag the season back to life.
Bruins fans are tired of being the other LA team — the one whose football is treated as a basketball school's hobby and USC's undercard. They'll point to the alumni list and ask why the program with t…
Approaching
31 days
until kickoff · at California · Sun Sep 6 · 02:30 UTC
UCLA is the program with the country's best football alumni list and the patience to wait for its next national peak.
With a recruiting rank of #62 and only 22% returning production, UCLA's 2026 campaign depends heavily on its 42 incoming transfers, particularly at QB and OT. The team's ceiling projection of 10-3 hinges on integrating these newcomers effectively.
Joe Bruin is contemplative.
the open questionis the portal class enough to move the needle?
Deshaun Foster's top-2 Big Ten portal class arrives as UCLA's 3-9 season hangs over the program — Ty Dieffenbach (QB) and 30 additions aim to fix a roster with just 22% returning production.
Foster's first full portal class in Year 2 addresses OT and LB while replacing Marshall and Johnson — UCLA's patience with roster rebuilding meets its alumni pedigree.
Foster's second season begins with a 3-9 foundation and a win total drop below bowl eligibility — UCLA's alumni legacy offers patience, but not immunity.
Chesney, who previously coached at James Madison, inherits a 3-9 roster and 22% returning production — UCLA's patience is tested as the third coach in five years faces the weight.
Jaivian Thomas: a garbage time merchant signal screened this season.
Mikey Matthews: a garbage time merchant signal screened this season.
Rico Flores is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
Titus Mokiao-Atimalala is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
UCLA dropped 23 spots in SP+ — Deshaun Foster’s second season opens with bottom-quintile production returning and a 3-9 record as its anchor.
Deshaun Foster's second season opens with a 3-9 losing record, raising questions about whether coordinator changes can elevate a middle-tier program past its current struggles.
UCLA: coordinator change reshaping a unit.
4-star WR Blake Wong commits to BYU
Foster's trying to build something real in Year 2, but a 4-star WR flipping to BYU while the QB room is unsettled is the kind of domino that keeps a #46 class from climbing — receivers need someone to throw to them.
Win total: 5.5 → 6.5 (▲1)
A top-30 portal class dragged the number back up — but a 6.5 → 5.5 → 6.5 arc on a #46 recruiting class tells you the market still hasn't made up its mind about Foster's roster ceiling in Year Two.
Win total: 6.5 → 5.5 (▼1)
6.5 → 5.5 → 6.5 in one offseason — the books can't decide if a top-30 portal haul fixes a QB room still unproven at Big Ten speed, and honestly, neither can anyone else.
Top 3 commits
Fan confidence in a typical range for this program right now
51st percentile among FBS programs
Market outlook
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-08-06
UCLA · Next-Season Outcome Band
Final-season-aware projection: floor / base / ceiling include conference title and CFP games where the model supports them, so a ceiling can exceed a 12-game regular season.
UCLA signed the No. 1 transfer-portal class — 30 additions headlined by Nico Iamaleava (QB) from Tennessee and Madden Iamaleava (QB) from Arkansas. It is a top-2 portal class in the Big Ten this cycle. Portal pickups are proven college players — the split isn't about development, it's about whether they fit the scheme and win their position battles. Coverage is split on whether volume or positional fit is the bigger story.
The off-field storyline driving the noise right now. Not analysis — the soap opera, and that's the point.
The 'portal class fills the gaps' believers -- upgrades at real positions of need.
The 'portal is a gamble' counter -- departure losses and the 'plug-and-play doesn't work' read.
This event was in 174 of 1664 board posts (10%) over the last 60 days — engaged but not consumed. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
Board health this week (234 posts): 14% positive · 72% neutral · 14% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.
UCLA signed a top-20 transfer-portal class — 42 additions headlined by Ty Dieffenbach (QB) from Cal Poly and Jhase McMillan (CB) from Montana State. It is the No. 1 portal class in the Big Ten this cycle. Portal pickups don't redshirt. The coverage sees this as a targeted, ready-to-contribute class built for snap competition, not depth-chart filler. The coverage reads this as a credible, targeted haul.
The 'portal class fills the gaps' believers -- upgrades at real positions of need.
The 'portal is a gamble' counter -- departure losses and the 'plug-and-play doesn't work' read.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
This event was in 174 of 1664 board posts (10%) over the last 60 days — engaged but not consumed. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
Board health this week (234 posts): 14% positive · 72% neutral · 14% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.
Recent Form · last 10 games
Zero of five. Reset territory.
Opens Sep 6
vs California · away
✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
CA leads the 2026 class with 14 commits. National footprint reaching 6 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
73 signees across 13 states, 2023-2026. CA leads the pull.
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
12 games with TV coverage: 7 national broadcast, 2 cable, 3 conference network
Kickoff windows: 2 noon, 2 afternoon, 8 primetime
33% recovery rate on their own fumbles — below the ~51% league baseline.
3 of 9 own fumbles recovered themselves; 6 of 10 forced fumbles recovered, 2025 only.
10% of tipped/broken-up passes have turned into picks — below the ~19% league average, and due for more.
4 interceptions of 41 disrupted passes (37 deflected, 4 intercepted), 2025 only.
90 penalties committed, 52 drawn on opponents — ceding 305 yards of field position.
786 penalty yards committed vs. 481 drawn on opponents, 2025 season total.
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Fanbase Signals
Position = mood · width = volume · color = the kind of feeling
Inside the fanbase — all 12 corners
The split, staged
How UCLA fans actually talk real · top-upvoted
The crowd’s loudest take by upvotes — read for mood, not as a side. The cohort read is the measured part.
Loudest in the room this week real · by engagement
All 12 corners of the fanbase
Cohort sentiment is a source-weighted model read — never a quote pinned to a person.
What this fanbase keeps coming back to our read · topic model
Topics are model-labeled from Reddit — a rough signal of what this fanbase is circling right now.
~ our readUCLA fans are split right down the middle, with almost nothing concrete behind it yet.
✓ counted We read 234 posts from UCLA fans this week.
Fanbase divided: 51% believers, 49% skeptics
Fan opinions split nearly 50/50 right now · See all divided fanbases →
Five Lenses
What people are saying right now
Fanbase Health Index · UCLA · high confidence
FBS rankings · 2025 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scrambler · +0.25 EPA/play | 9 | 11 | 208 / 323 | 64.4 | 1928 | 6.0 | 13 | 7 | 123.5 | 54.5 | 5.0 | 7.2 | |
Yards by week → ScramblerMakes plays with feet when the pocket collapses. Efficiency still on the rise. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 45 of 183 QBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Rush usage25.7% 63th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Rush yards / carry4.5 85th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like Aura Tax — perception-vs-production gap across 4 tracked snapshots, 257 mentions our readFading: his CFB Index score climbed from the 79th percentile to the 43rd among FBS QBs | |||||||||||||
| +0.26 EPA/play | 12 | 2 | 21 / 34 | 61.8 | 235 | 6.9 | 2 | 0 | 139.2 | 68.5 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Stuff% | 10+% | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Back · +0.20 EPA/play | — | 12 | 81 | 364 | 4.5 | 2 | 24 | 6.3 | 6.7 | 14.3 | 11.7 | — | |
Yards by week → Balanced BackPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 186 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / carry5.4 51th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Rush TD rate2.5% bottom 25th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jalen Berger's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Balanced Back · +0.05 EPA/play | 21 | 10 | 82 | 306 | 3.7 | 1 | 32 | 6 | 10.1 | 30.1 | 9.6 | — | |
Yards by week → Balanced BackPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 186 of 349 classified this way. Played in 10 of 21 games this season · junior View Jaivian Thomas's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Satellite Back · +0.11 EPA/play | 6 | 11 | 63 | 294 | 4.7 | 0 | 33 | 12 | 11.9 | 10.2 | 13.6 | 7.4% (25/336) | |
Yards by week → Satellite BackDeployed as a receiver as much as a runner. Value is in space, not between the tackles. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 50 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Receiving share27.6% 99th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Rush TD rate0.0% bottom 6th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Anthony Woods's full player page | |||||||||||||
| +0.03 EPA/play | 22 | 11 | 24 | 183 | 7.6 | 1 | 55 | 6.2 | 6.6 | — | — | 4.5% (15/336) | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slot Technician · +0.34 EPA/play | 3 | 12 | 50 | 535 | 10.7 | 4 | 43 | 15.5 | 13.8 | 25.9% (87/336) | |
Yards by week → Slot TechnicianRuns precise routes in tight quarters. Volume player who keeps chains moving. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 97 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Reception volume50 80th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Plays like View Kwazi Gilmer's full player page | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.29 EPA/play | 7 | 11 | 33 | 348 | 10.5 | 2 | 37 | 10.2 | 9.4 | 15.2% (51/336) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception10.3 bottom 24th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.3 bottom 24th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Mikey Matthews's full player page | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.63 EPA/play | 2 | 11 | 25 | 322 | 12.9 | 3 | 34 | 8.4 | 7.2 | 12.5% (42/336) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. The most common profile in its group this season — 332 of 558 classified this way. Played in 11 of 21 games this season · senior View Titus Mokiao-Atimalala's full player page | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · -0.01 EPA/play | 1 | 8 | 26 | 274 | 10.5 | 0 | 51 | 8.3 | 6.9 | 11.6% (39/336) | |
Yards by week → Possession Receiver· Boom-or-bustReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception9.9 bottom 19th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)-0.0 bottom 3th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Rico Flores's full player page | |||||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.17 EPA/play | 81 | 10 | 20 | 138 | 6.9 | 0 | 26 | 7.7 | 6.8 | 7.7% (26/336) | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. 177 of 223 TEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception7.7 bottom 16th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions TD rate0.0% bottom 10th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Hudson Habermehl's full player page | |||||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.02 EPA/play | 28 | 7 | 11 | 72 | 6.5 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 4.1 | 4.5% (15/336) | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. 177 of 223 TEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception6.6 bottom 11th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.0 bottom 9th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jack Pedersen's full player page | |||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nose Anchor | 58 | 10 | 40 | 19 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0 |
Nose AnchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 152 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight340 lb 98th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Gary Smith III's full player page | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 99 | 12 | 39 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Nose AnchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 152 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight320 lb 90th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Keanu Williams's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 52 | 10 | 23 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. The most common profile in its group this season — 388 of 809 classified this way. Played in 10 of 21 games this season · senior View Kechaun Bennett's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 15 | 9 | 20 | 10 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 4 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate12.5% bottom 41th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readFading: his CFB Index score moved from the 68th to 30th percentile among FBS IDLs | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 97 | 8 | 18 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate22.2% 79th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Jacob Busic's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 44 | 7 | 15 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 388 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate6.7% bottom 20th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Devin Aupiu's full player page | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 92 | 8 | 15 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
Nose AnchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. 152 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight335 lb 97th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Siale Taupaki's full player page | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 55 | 9 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 0.5 | 1 |
Nose AnchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. 152 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight311 lb 84th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View A.J. Fuimaono's full player page | |||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Linebacker | 6 | 12 | 107 | 46 | 61 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. 362 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume107 98th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles PD rate0.9% bottom 28th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint View JonJon Vaughns's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 32 | 12 | 84 | 40 | 44 | 2.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. The most common profile in its group this season — 362 of 660 classified this way. Played in 12 of 21 games this season · sophomore View Isaiah Chisom's full player page | |||||||||
| Coverage 'Backer | 9 | 12 | 47 | 28 | 19 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 3 | 0 |
Coverage 'BackerCarries tight ends and patrols the middle of the field in coverage. 99 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate6.4% 91th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Tackle volume47 bottom 45th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like our readSustained Ascent: his CFB Index score shows two real climbs in a row — 1st to 29th to 54th percentile among FBS LBs | |||||||||
| Sideline-to-Sideline | — | 8 | 19 | 11 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Sideline-to-SidelineRanges from hash to hash and makes his own tackles. 102 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Solo tackle rate0.6 77th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate0.0% bottom 10th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Donavyn Pellot's full player page | |||||||||
| 20 | 7 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Box Safety | 4 | 12 | 70 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Box SafetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 166 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume70 91th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Key Lawrence's full player page | |||||||
| Box Safety | 21 | 12 | 65 | 3 | 1 | 3.5 | 0 |
Box SafetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. 166 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume65 86th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Cole Martin's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 28 | 12 | 44 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 419 of 801 classified this way. Played in 12 of 21 games this season · junior View Scooter Jackson's full player page | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 18 | 10 | 36 | 7 | 0 | 1.5 | 0 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 133 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt View Rodrick Pleasant's full player pagePD rate19.4% 94th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 1 | 8 | 23 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 133 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate8.7% 53th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Kanye Clark's full player page | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 2 | 11 | 19 | 10 #20 FBS | 0 | 0 | 0 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 133 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate52.6% 100th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score moved from the 19th to 57th percentile among FBS Ss | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 3 | 9 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 133 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate12.5% 73th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Robert Stafford's full player page | |||||||
| 7 | 5 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 12 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Big Leg | 94 | 12 | 16/20 | 80 | 22/22 | 70 | 54 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 49 | 11 | 44 | 1913 | 43.5 | 63 | 13 | 2 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +0.03 EPA/play | 22 | 11 | 10 | 179 | 17.9 | 0 | 27 |
| Box Safety | 21 | 12 | 7 | 164 | 23.4 | 0 | 33 |
| Possession Receiver · +0.63 EPA/play | 2 | 11 | 5 | 88 | 17.6 | 0 | 32 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Possession Receiver · +0.29 EPA/play | 7 | 11 | 9 | 47 | 5.2 | 0 | 17 |
2025 stat leaders
finalRoster
2025+20 more
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 31 | #59 | #74 | +6.5 | Utah | L 10–43 130 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 7 | #70 | #100 | -2.5 | @UNLV | L 23–30 122 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 13 | #76 | #126 | -15.5 | New Mexico | L 10–35 119 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| 5 | Sep 27 | #96 | #55 | +6.5 | @Northwestern | L 14–17 117 | 0-4 | 0-1 |
| 6 | Oct 4 | #87 | #5 | +24.5 | Penn StateTop 10 win | W 42–37 134 | 1-4 | 1-1 |
| 7 | Oct 11 | #77 | #78 | +6.5 | @Michigan State | W 38–13 127 | 2-4 | 2-1 |
| 8 | Oct 18 | #67 | #73 | -4.5 | Maryland | W 20–17 144 | 3-4 | 3-1 |
| 9 | Oct 25 | #70 | #5 | +27.5 | @Indiana | L 6–56 129 | 3-5 | 3-2 |
| 11 | Nov 9 | #71 | #48 | -2.5 | Nebraska | L 21–28 118 | 3-6 | 3-3 |
| 12 | Nov 16 | #74 | #1 | +33 | @Ohio State | L 10–48 115 | 3-7 | 3-4 |
| 13 | Nov 23 | #76 | #24 | +11 | Washington | L 14–48 126 | 3-8 | 3-5 |
| 14 | Nov 30 | #92 | #20 | +21.5 | @USC | L 10–29 119 | 3-9 | 3-6 |
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30 | @USC | L 10–29 | 308 | 0 | 33:16 | +0.104 | 43.9% | 107.5% | |
| Nov 23 | Washington | L 14–48 | 207 | 3 | 25:33 | -0.149 | 23.0% | 120.6% | Blowout loss |
| Nov 16 | @Ohio State | L 10–48 | 222 | 0 | 25:14 | +0.058 | 33.3% | 105.1% | Blowout loss |
| Nov 9 | Nebraska | L 21–28 | 348 | 0 | 30:00 | +0.297 | 46.2% | 135.2% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Oct 25 | @Indiana | L 6–56 | 201 | 3 | 24:26 | -0.156 | 30.9% | 101.7% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 18 | Maryland | W 20–17 | 414 | 3 | 33:02 | +0.048 | 39.2% | 145.0% | Most explosive |
| Oct 11 | @Michigan State | W 38–13 | 418 | 0 | 36:24 | +0.290 | 48.6% | 112.7% | |
| Oct 4 | Penn State | W 42–37 | 435 | 0 | 39:18 | +0.145 | 50.8% | 103.4% | Best success rate |
| Sep 27 | @Northwestern | L 14–17 | 311 | 0 | 25:39 | +0.212 | 42.1% | 118.0% | One-score loss |
| Sep 13 | New Mexico | L 10–35 | 326 | 1 | 23:22 | +0.157 | 50.0% | 88.5% | |
| Sep 7 | @UNLV | L 23–30 | 428 | 2 | 31:26 | +0.258 | 48.6% | 125.8% | One-score loss |
| Aug 31 | Utah | L 10–43 | 220 | 1 | 22:32 | +0.065 | 33.3% | 133.7% | Defense's roughest night |
| Season average (12 games) | 320 | 1.1 | +0.111 | 40.8% | 116.4% | ||||
UCLA fields a limited methodical, ball-control offense behind a porous, bend-don't-break defense.
Opponent-adjusted percentiles vs all FBS. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Team identity · competitive snaps only
23rd percentile quality, 79th percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 86th | 11th |
| Akron | 12th | 89th |
| Alabama | 58th | 17th |
| App State | 35th | 47th |
| Arizona | 64th | 37th |
| Arizona State | 41st | 62nd |
| Arkansas | 90th | 12th |
| Arkansas State | 17th | 66th |
| Army | 57th | 43rd |
| Auburn | 47th | 53rd |
| BYU | 78th | 19th |
| Baylor | 69th | 25th |
| Boise State | 66th | 20th |
| Boston College | 37th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 2nd | 98th |
| Buffalo | 11th | 88th |
| California | 28th | 48th |
| Central Michigan | 52nd | 64th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 16th |
| Clemson | 51st | 48th |
| Coastal Carolina | 17th | 83rd |
| Colorado | 18th | 84th |
| Colorado State | 16th | 83rd |
| Delaware | 38th | 58th |
| Duke | 80th | 14th |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 36th |
| Eastern Michigan | 49th | 42nd |
| Florida | 30th | 67th |
| Florida Atlantic | 62nd | 59th |
| Florida International | 42nd | 50th |
| Florida State | 83rd | 32nd |
| Fresno State | 26th | 73rd |
| Georgia | 81st | 3rd |
| Georgia Southern | 73rd | 21st |
| Georgia State | 36th | 70th |
| Georgia Tech | 84th | 5th |
| Hawai'i | 64th | 41st |
| Houston | 27th | 65th |
| Illinois | 75th | 26th |
| Indiana | 95th | 1st |
| Iowa | 44th | 40th |
| Iowa State | 68th | 22nd |
| Jacksonville State | 54th | 38th |
| James Madison | 65th | 44th |
| Kansas | 85th | 28th |
| Kansas State | 71st | 49th |
| Kennesaw State | 56th | 30th |
| Kent State | 21st | 86th |
| Kentucky | 15th | 85th |
| LSU | 14th | 81st |
| Liberty | 43rd | 56th |
| Louisiana | 19th | 73rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 39th | 61st |
| Louisville | 48th | 64th |
| Marshall | 55th | 39th |
| Maryland | 30th | 74th |
| Memphis | 80th | 24th |
| Miami | 76th | 5th |
| Miami (OH) | 34th | 67th |
| Michigan | 67th | 33rd |
| Michigan State | 27th | 75th |
| Middle Tennessee | 39th | 52nd |
| Minnesota | 29th | 77th |
| Mississippi State | 22nd | 77th |
| Missouri | 61st | 30th |
| Missouri State | 55th | 46th |
| NC State | 86th | 23rd |
| Navy | 94th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 48th | 57th |
| Nevada | 3rd | 97th |
| New Mexico | 58th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 9th | 87th |
| North Carolina | 13th | 89th |
| North Texas | 98th | 7th |
| Northern Illinois | 8th | 92nd |
| Northwestern | 52nd | 36th |
| Notre Dame | 99th | 20th |
| Ohio | 67th | 18th |
| Ohio State | 93rd | 4th |
| Oklahoma | 20th | 80th |
| Oklahoma State | 5th | 95th |
| Old Dominion | 83rd | 45th |
| Ole Miss | 89th | 2nd |
| Oregon | 91st | 10th |
| Oregon State | 2nd | 98th |
| Penn State | 73rd | 33rd |
| Pittsburgh | 60th | 39th |
| Purdue | 25th | 78th |
| Rice | 6th | 94th |
| Rutgers | 70th | 27th |
| SMU | 74th | 42nd |
| Sam Houston | 4th | 96th |
| San Diego State | 24th | 76th |
| San José State | 45th | 69th |
| South Alabama | 36th | 58th |
| South Carolina | 23rd | 86th |
| South Florida | 87th | 23rd |
| Southern Miss | 40th | 55th |
| Stanford | 10th | 90th |
| Syracuse | 5th | 95th |
| TCU | 72nd | 35th |
| Temple | 70th | 34th |
| Tennessee | 96th | 11th |
| Texas | 45th | 55th |
| Texas A&M | 82nd | 14th |
| Texas State | 92nd | 8th |
| Texas Tech | 77th | 31st |
| Toledo | 50th | 61st |
| Troy | 14th | 80th |
| Tulane | 79th | 15th |
| Tulsa | 20th | 70th |
| UAB | 61st | 45th |
| UCF | 33rd | 82nd |
| UCLA | 23rd | 79th |
| UConn | 95th | 13th |
| UL Monroe | 11th | 92nd |
| UNLV | 88th | 9th |
| USC | 98th | 2nd |
| UTEP | 1st | 99th |
| UTSA | 77th | 51st |
| Utah | 97th | 6th |
| Utah State | 46th | 63rd |
| Vanderbilt | 100th | 0th |
| Virginia | 59th | 27th |
| Virginia Tech | 32nd | 71st |
| Wake Forest | 42nd | 72nd |
| Washington | 92nd | 8th |
| Washington State | 33rd | 52nd |
| West Virginia | 7th | 93rd |
| Western Kentucky | 53rd | 29th |
| Western Michigan | 31st | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 0th | 100th |
| Wyoming | 8th | 91st |
Fourth-quarter reliability, corrected
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 65th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it climbs to the 88th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
28th percentile success on standard downs, 48th on passing downs — a 20-point gap between the two.
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 82nd | 69th |
| Akron | 20th | 36th |
| Alabama | 47th | 76th |
| App State | 41st | 80th |
| Arizona | 54th | 54th |
| Arizona State | 40th | 37th |
| Arkansas | 90th | 97th |
| Arkansas State | 51st | 40th |
| Army | 37th | 44th |
| Auburn | 73rd | 24th |
| Austin Peay | 56th | 13th |
| BYU | 91st | 46th |
| Ball State | 5th | 3rd |
| Baylor | 70th | 77th |
| Boise State | 42nd | 63rd |
| Boston College | 56th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 10th | 17th |
| Bryant | 7th | 2nd |
| Buffalo | 29th | 20th |
| California | 25th | 66th |
| Central Michigan | 57th | 11th |
| Charlotte | 7th | 7th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 65th |
| Clemson | 49th | 34th |
| Coastal Carolina | 16th | 22nd |
| Colorado | 8th | 48th |
| Colorado State | 29th | 35th |
| Delaware | 66th | 31st |
| Duke | 82nd | 63rd |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 91st |
| Eastern Michigan | 46th | 67th |
| Florida | 52nd | 45th |
| Florida Atlantic | 44th | 61st |
| Florida International | 50th | 26th |
| Florida State | 65th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 22nd | 71st |
| Georgia | 95th | 69th |
| Georgia Southern | 64th | 84th |
| Georgia State | 22nd | 75th |
| Georgia Tech | 92nd | 89th |
| Hawai'i | 33rd | 87th |
| Houston | 61st | 29th |
| Idaho | 30th | 78th |
| Idaho State | 93rd | 14th |
| Illinois | 79th | 95th |
| Indiana | 97th | 98th |
| Iowa | 74th | 19th |
| Iowa State | 80th | 58th |
| Jacksonville State | 59th | 56th |
| James Madison | 77th | 52nd |
| Kansas | 99th | 82nd |
| Kansas State | 37th | 59th |
| Kennesaw State | 44th | 67th |
| Kent State | 15th | 5th |
| Kentucky | 62nd | 29th |
| LSU | 18th | 52nd |
| Lafayette | 0th | 12th |
| Liberty | 65th | 53rd |
| Lindenwood | 4th | 1st |
| Long Island University | 24th | 78th |
| Louisiana | 24th | 23rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 41st | 24th |
| Louisville | 84th | 32nd |
| Maine | 3rd | 18th |
| Marshall | 71st | 62nd |
| Maryland | 11th | 86th |
| Massachusetts | 5th | 9th |
| Memphis | 75th | 68th |
| Merrimack | 1st | 83rd |
| Miami | 80th | 64th |
| Miami (OH) | 33rd | 39th |
| Michigan | 73rd | 74th |
| Michigan State | 48th | 39th |
| Middle Tennessee | 69th | 47th |
| Minnesota | 35th | 33rd |
| Mississippi State | 52nd | 35th |
| Missouri | 76th | 50th |
| Missouri State | 32nd | 50th |
| Murray State | 1st | 6th |
| NC State | 58th | 71st |
| Navy | 95th | 72nd |
| Nebraska | 78th | 51st |
| Nevada | 17th | 16th |
| New Mexico | 38th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 16th | 33rd |
| North Carolina | 14th | 30th |
| North Texas | 100th | 97th |
| Northern Illinois | 9th | 5th |
| Northwestern | 48th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 88th | 99th |
| Ohio | 69th | 76th |
| Ohio State | 99th | 99th |
| Oklahoma | 39th | 41st |
| Oklahoma State | 14th | 7th |
| Old Dominion | 72nd | 79th |
| Ole Miss | 83rd | 95th |
| Oregon | 93rd | 55th |
| Oregon State | 54th | 25th |
| Penn State | 76th | 73rd |
| Pittsburgh | 35th | 56th |
| Purdue | 46th | 88th |
| Rice | 20th | 0th |
| Rutgers | 71st | 84th |
| SMU | 50th | 57th |
| Sam Houston | 26th | 4th |
| San Diego State | 84th | 1st |
| San José State | 68th | 70th |
| South Alabama | 53rd | 28th |
| South Carolina | 31st | 8th |
| South Carolina State | 10th | 3rd |
| South Florida | 86th | 46th |
| Southern Miss | 27th | 38th |
| Stanford | 12th | 12th |
| Syracuse | 19th | 10th |
| TCU | 63rd | 82nd |
| Temple | 85th | 22nd |
| Tennessee | 97th | 81st |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 88th | 59th |
| Texas State | 60th | 93rd |
| Texas Tech | 45th | 65th |
| Toledo | 67th | 42nd |
| Troy | 18th | 27th |
| Tulane | 81st | 86th |
| Tulsa | 43rd | 43rd |
| UAB | 34th | 94th |
| UCF | 39th | 20th |
| UCLA | 28th | 48th |
| UConn | 96th | 37th |
| UL Monroe | 13th | 14th |
| UNLV | 78th | 85th |
| USC | 94th | 90th |
| UT Martin | 2nd | 41st |
| UTEP | 3rd | 10th |
| UTSA | 67th | 92nd |
| Utah | 87th | 96th |
| Utah State | 31st | 49th |
| Vanderbilt | 90th | 100th |
| Virginia | 36th | 73rd |
| Virginia Tech | 59th | 21st |
| Wake Forest | 21st | 31st |
| Washington | 98th | 93rd |
| Washington State | 61st | 44th |
| West Virginia | 12th | 18th |
| Western Kentucky | 55th | 80th |
| Western Michigan | 86th | 16th |
| Wisconsin | 6th | 27th |
| Wyoming | 23rd | 15th |
Halftime identity
1st-half offense ranks 32nd percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 60th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
Schedule mirage
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.11; 42nd percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.02. The widest gap came in week 2: 0.16 raw vs. 0.03 adjusted.
UCLA reads strongest in explosive plays allowed (top 13%) and rushing epa (top 28%); the crux lives in success rate allowed, where UCLA sits at the 1st percentile.
offense · strengths lead
defense · higher bar = harder to play against
hidden math · special situations
Most Similar Programs · UCLA
Static-attribute similarity across tier, archetype, conference, and voice. Not a prediction — a calibration.
Home-Field Advantage · UCLA · 2018-present
48% home win rate vs 43% on the road. margin runs +2.6 better at home. Rose Bowl seats 88,565, averaging 49% full (43,268 attendance, 26 games reported).
Positional competition · RB room
Jaivian Thomas and Jalen Berger split the carries (83/160 vs 77/160) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
Positional competition · WR/TE room
Kwazi Gilmer (WR) and Hudson Habermehl (TE) split the targets (87/113 vs 26/113) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
What changed
The biggest shift: red-zone pass rate moved down 5 points. The rest held closer to steady.
Play-calling barely moved on the change — every rate held within a few points.
Season by season
Defensive identity · pass zones
On short passes, UCLA’s defense allows a completion rate above the FBS mean (70.8% vs 65.9% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 111-play sample) — mid-pack, 127 of 133 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball leaderboard here: at the defense level, most teams face well under 30 rich-feed deep targets all season — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess.
74°F average kickoff temp; 4% of games had measurable precipitation; 6 mph average wind.
Based on 74 home games with weather data.
12 seasons inside the CFP era, no bids yet — the era the program is still trying to break into.
UCLA's 2014–2025 record is 71-73. The era is still being written; the CFP line is the one the program is arguing for.
All-Time Record
since 1925 · 101 seasons · .575 win rate
UCLA plays its home games in the Rose Bowl and recruits a talent base that programs in the midwest would trade their practice facilities for. It has produced Troy Aikman, and it has not won a conference title since 1998. Then came an 0-3 start, a fired coach, and a transfer quarterback who dragged the season back from the floor.
The gap between what UCLA has and what it has produced is the program's whole story. The Rose Bowl in Pasadena. An NFL alumni list that includes Hall of Famers. One of the richest recruiting footprints in the country — the most concentrated talent corridor in the sport sits within driving distance of practice. Terry Donahue's teams ran that back into Rose Bowls for a decade. That was the 1980s. The program has been searching for the version of itself that matches the address ever since.
The 2025 season was the latest installment of the same story, with a specific new wrinkle. DeShaun Foster went 0-3 in September and was dismissed after 15 games as head coach. Nico Iamaleava — the Tennessee transfer who arrived from a 2025 NIL standoff that made national news — took over under interim Tim Skipper and ran the offense to life, earning Big Ten Offensive Player of the Week and announcing he would return for 2026. Bob Chesney, fresh off a 12-1 Sun Belt championship season at James Madison, came in as the new head coach. The offseason math: a legitimate quarterback, a proven developer, the same address it has always had.
The 2026 question is whether the combination of Chesney and Iamaleava finally bridges the gap the program has never closed. Chesney at James Madison built an overachiever on less. The theory is that the same model with more — the recruiting footprint, the brand, the stadium — produces a different ceiling. UCLA has offered that theory before. What it has not offered yet is proof.
LA cool with blue-blood bones — the Bruins operate in a pro-style system with room for the quarterback to operate, suited to the high-end skill talent the Southern California market produces. Bob Chesney's James Madison offense was built around tempo and execution over athleticism gap, which will face its first real test against Big Ten defensive lines. The Rose Bowl plays big and fast; the identity Chesney is building is built to match it.
UCLA 2016–2025. Holding the line. The 10-year slope (-0.13 rungs / yr) doesn't tilt either way — the program lives at roughly Tier 2.
12 seasons on file
down middle peak CFP year
Season Standing · 2025 · 3-9
UCLA: Below .500 in FBS play. The rebuild bar.
Big Ten Standing · 2025
UCLA is 13th of 18 in the Big Ten at 3-6. The path to the title is steep — the focus is on bowl access and rivalry wins.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Indiana | 11-0 |
| 2 | Ohio State | 9-1 |
| 3 | Oregon | 8-2 |
| 4 | Michigan | 7-2 |
| 5 | USC | 7-2 |
| 6 | Iowa | 6-3 |
| 7 | Illinois | 5-4 |
| 8 | Minnesota | 5-4 |
| 9 | Washington | 5-4 |
| 10 | Nebraska | 4-5 |
| 11 | Northwestern | 4-5 |
| 12 | Penn State | 3-6 |
| 13 | UCLA | 3-6 |
| 14 | Rutgers | 2-7 |
| 15 | Wisconsin | 2-7 |
| 16 | Maryland | 1-8 |
| 17 | Michigan State | 1-8 |
| 18 | Purdue | 0-9 |
Coaching Era · UCLA
Bob Chesney took over from Deshaun Foster for the 2026 season.
Three gameday rituals — the ones outsiders never quite catch.
since 1948
Coordinated 8-beat clap — '1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, U-C-L-A!' Pioneered by UCLA cheer in 1948. Carried by alumni to NBA arenas, road games, Olympic events. The most-traveled cheer in CFB; sometimes outnumbers home-team cheers in road stadiums.
since 1985
UCLA football plays in the Rose Bowl 30 miles from campus. UCLA basketball plays in Pauley on campus. The geographic awkwardness IS part of the program's identity — Saturday in Pasadena, Saturday night back in Westwood. The 2-venue rhythm shapes the fan experience.
since 1949
Joe Bruin (and Josephine Bruin from 1965) — the bear mascots. The 1949-era costumes are now museum pieces. Joe interacts with fans through the entire game; sometimes appears at Hollywood premieres.
Program memory
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
1988
Donahue's nationally ranked, Rose Bowl-winning teams
2024
UCLA leaves the Pac-12 for the Big Ten — cross-country realignment that reshaped the program's identity
Wound
2025
An 0-3 start gets the second-year coach dismissed after 15 games
Heartbreak
Moment of the Year · UCLA · 2025
Week 9 of 2025. A reckoning loss — the data point the next season must answer.
Bowl / Postseason Ledger
Most recent: 2023 — win 22-35 (away). Last 5 postseason: 2-3.
NFL Draft Pipeline
2022–202517 picks last 5 cycles. 1 first-round picks. Recruits with NFL ambitions notice.
Unit lineage
FBS-relative efficiency percentile per season (2014–2025), same population as the Coordinator Mirror board. Dashed vertical lines mark a coordinator change.
Hired for 2026: Dean Kennedy — not yet reflected in on-field data.
Hired for 2026: Colin Hitschler — not yet reflected in on-field data.
All-time top community posts · ranked by upvotes
UCLA · Next-Season Outcome Band
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
Fanbase Health Index · UCLA · high confidence
2025 stat leaders
How They Play · 2025
Most Similar Programs · UCLA
Season Standing · 2025 · 3-9
Coaching Era · UCLA
Moment of the Year · UCLA · 2025
Bowl / Postseason Ledger
NFL Draft Pipeline