Michigan State at UCLA
Michigan State (2‑5) at UCLA (#9, 6‑0) — UCLA is favored by 15.5. The model gives UCLA a 85% shot. Michigan State’s offense is at the 3rd percentile on explosive plays; UCLA’s defense is at the 91st.
How they got here
Last three games
Michigan State · 2-5
Rated 170th in our preseason ratings, 124th now, up 46 spots.
Three straight losses.
Last three games
UCLA · 6-0
Rated 62nd in our preseason ratings, 19th now, up 43 spots.
Three straight wins, including a 2-point win over Oregon as a 10-point underdog.
Biggest mismatch: Michigan State’s explosive plays against UCLA, 88 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Michigan State’s explosive plays against UCLA’s defense
Michigan State offense, 3rd percentile · UCLA defense, 91st
Michigan State’s EPA/play against UCLA’s defense
Michigan State offense, 18th percentile · UCLA defense, 98th
Michigan State’s passing EPA against UCLA’s defense
Michigan State offense, 18th percentile · UCLA defense, 98th
What’s at stake
Michigan State
- Michigan State needs 4 more wins in the final 4 to reach bowl eligibility — 5% to get there with a win here, 0% with a loss.
- Michigan State hasn’t beaten a ranked opponent since 2022.
UCLA
- UCLA sits at 38% to make the playoff — 41% with a win here, 20% with a loss.
- UCLA is the program with the country's best football alumni list and the patience to wait for its next national peak.
The series
UCLA leads the series 4-3
7 meetings since 1953 · UCLA has won the last 3
- 2025UCLA 38-13
- 1974UCLA 56-14
- 1973UCLA 34-21
- 1965Michigan State 13-3
- 1965 · neutral siteUCLA 14-12
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Michigan State
The chip · vs big brotherThe fanbase measures itself against the program 60 miles west and savors every upset of it — the conviction that Michigan State is at its truest when it walks in unranked and walks out with the rivalry trophy.
What this game touches
The Smith firing. Michigan State went 4-8 (1-8 Big Ten) in 2025 — a 3-0 start that collapsed into eight straight losses before a season-ending win — and fired Jonathan Smith after two seasons at 9-15. It hired former Northwestern coach Pat Fitzgerald the next day: another reset for a program still searching for stable ground since the Dantonio peak.
UCLA
The chip · vs big brotherBruins fans are tired of being the other LA team — the one whose football is treated as a basketball school's hobby and USC's undercard. They'll point to the alumni list and ask why the program with the better address keeps getting overlooked.
What this game touches
The 0-3 collapse and the Foster firing. UCLA opened 2025 winless through three games — its worst start since 2019 — and fired second-year coach DeShaun Foster after just 15 games. Interim Tim Skipper and a surging Nico Iamaleava pulled the team to a 3-9 finish, but the bottom-falling-out start was the latest proof that a program with every structural advantage keeps finding the floor.
Best players
Michigan State
- Devin Vaught (S) · 46 tackles
- Dion Crawford (LB) · 41 tackles
- Alessio Milivojevic (QB) · 1,263 passing yards
UCLA
- Jalen Woods (LB) · 51 tackles
- Samuel Omosigho (LB) · 45 tackles
- Wayne Knight (RB) · 571 rushing yards — Heisman odds: 44th (+15000)
What to watch
Player to watch: Alessio Milivojevic (QB) — Michigan State’s leading passer (1,263 passing yards) takes on UCLA’s pass defense (98th percentile allowed).
The spread has moved 2.0 points toward UCLA since opening (−13.5 → −15.5).
The total has moved down 4.0 points since opening (47.5 → 43.5): books now expect fewer combined points.
The betting line, and the fans
UCLA fans are feeling it less than most fanbases this week (32nd among FBS fanbases), and the other side is no happier.
UCLA favored by 15.5 · Total 43.5
UCLA by 15.5: where a favorite like this usually runs
Half of games8 in 10 games
UCLA’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 252 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.
Weather at kickoff
Mild. No coat needed.
Michigan State at UCLA · Saturday, Oct. 24 · 3:30 pm ET · CBS · Rose Bowl.
- 72°feels like
- 0%average rain chance
- 9 mphwind gusts
- 100weather score, Ideal
Forecast, read Fri Oct 23, 3:20 am ET. It can change until kickoff.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50. Gusts count toward the score (up to 15 points). Average rain chance: the hourly chances of rain over the first 3 hours and 20 minutes, averaged.
Tied for the highest forecast of this Saturday's 33 TV games with a forecast
- Baylor at Kansas: 100, Ideal
- Boston College at Georgia Tech: 100, Ideal
- Colorado at Oklahoma State: 100, Ideal
- Eastern Michigan at Ohio: 100, Ideal
- Indiana at Michigan: 100, Ideal
- Iowa State at Arizona: 100, Ideal
- Kansas State at Arizona State: 100, Ideal
- LSU at Auburn: 100, Ideal
- Michigan State at UCLA: 100, Ideal
- North Texas at Navy: 100, Ideal
- Oklahoma at Mississippi State: 100, Ideal
- Oregon at Illinois: 100, Ideal
- Tennessee at South Carolina: 100, Ideal
- Texas A&M at Alabama: 100, Ideal
- Texas Tech at Cincinnati: 100, Ideal
- USC at Wisconsin: 100, Ideal
- UTSA at Tulane: 100, Ideal
- West Virginia at TCU: 100, Ideal
- Western Michigan at Toledo: 100, Ideal
- California at SMU: 99, Comfortable
- Vanderbilt at Kentucky: 98, Comfortable
- Boise State at Washington State: 97, Comfortable
- Iowa at Minnesota: 97, Comfortable
- Utah State at Texas State: 96, Comfortable
- Ole Miss at Texas: 95, Comfortable
- Syracuse at North Carolina: 95, Comfortable
- Virginia Tech at Clemson: 95, Comfortable
- Houston at Utah: 93, Comfortable
- North Dakota State at New Mexico: 93, Comfortable
- San Diego State at Colorado State: 91, Comfortable
- BYU at UCF: 88, Mixed
- Pittsburgh at Miami: 85, Mixed
- Rice at Florida Atlantic: 85, Mixed
Tap a dot to read the game.
Forecast, read Fri Oct 23, 3:20 am to 9:20 am ET (each game has its own read time). It can change until kickoff.
If it kicked off at
Typical at Rose Bowl: noon Saturdays score 84, 3:30 pm 89, 7:30 pm 98.
- noon: 84, Mixed
- 3:30 pm: 89, Mixed
- 7:30 pm: 98, Comfortable
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
UCLA has had no measurable home edge since 2018 — −0.1 points (±4.0), home against road — 2nd percentile of FBS.
49% at home, 48% on the road against FBS opponents (25-26 home, 21-23 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -7.7 at home vs. away over 97 games — outside the ±6.3 noise, one of the few buildings where results say more.
The visitors travel about 1,902 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
UCLA
- Wk 2Wvs San Diego State28-10
- Wk 3Wvs Purdue52-38
- Wk 4Wat Maryland54-3
- Wk 6Wat Oregon17-15
- Wk 7Wvs Wisconsin17-7
Michigan State
- Wk 3Lat Notre Dame10-27
- Wk 4Lvs Nebraska13-31
- Wk 5Lat Wisconsin3-31
- Wk 6Lvs Illinois37-38
- Wk 7Lvs Northwestern21-24
Power rating by week
UCLA is rated 12.2 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The market
The spread moved 2 points toward UCLA.
The total fell 4 points.
Spread: −13.5 → −15.5 · Total: 47.5 → 43.5
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
- UCLA2nd4-0
- Michigan State16th0-4