Illinois 38-37 Michigan State (Oct 10, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Illinois · Michigan State

Illinois3-338

Michigan State2-437Final

Sat, Oct 10 · Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, Mich. · Crowd 65,837

Illinois beat Michigan State 38-37 in overtime.

We had Illinois favored. It won.

Next: Illinois vs Oregon, Sat Oct 24 · 3:00 PM ET · Illinois underdog by 9.5

Next: Michigan State lost to Northwestern 24-21, Sat Oct 17

Top comment in the game thread

Well that’s a fair call but a really dumb block

Q4 3:27 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Oct 10

How it swung

The turning point: Clayton 25-yd TD pass to Clement, Illinois goes ahead 38-31 (OT). Illinois went from 39% to 71% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Illinois a 66% chance, and the closing betting line (Illinois was a 2.5-point favorite) put it at 58%.

A tight one: Illinois bottomed out at 39% and won.

Michigan State never had better than a 61% chance.

FinalIllinois 38-37 Michigan StateIllinois wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The four plays that swung it

1Q2 8:57Houser 2-yd TD run, Illinois leads 17-0Illinois 83% → 62% (−21)
2Q4 1:17Patterson 2-yd TD run, ties it 31-31Illinois 79% → 55% (−24)
3OTClayton 25-yd TD pass to Clement, Illinois goes ahead 38-31Illinois 39% → 71% (+32)
4OTPatterson 1-yd TD run, cuts it to 38-37Illinois 68% → 100% (+32)

The four plays that swung it

1Q2 8:57Houser 2-yd TD run, Illinois leads 17-0Michigan State 17% → 38% (+21)
2Q4 1:17Patterson 2-yd TD run, ties it 31-31Michigan State 21% → 45% (+24)
3OTClayton 25-yd TD pass to Clement, Illinois goes ahead 38-31Michigan State 61% → 29% (−32)
4OTPatterson 1-yd TD run, cuts it to 38-37Michigan State 32% → 0% (−32)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q1 11:46Michigan State attempted a poorly executed flea flicker.Lol! A flea flicker? With this O-line?!?r/CFB game thread
Q4 7:41Fans criticize officials for delaying whistle on Milivojevic pass and using chainsJust in case the football game got in the way of the ref-ball game, they had to throw a flag.r/CFB game threadBoth teams lose, refs winr/CFB game thread
Q4 3:27Officials flag MSU for illegal block in back on Gulker passThese officials have been awful but that was not a first down on the 4th down play.r/CFB game threadQuoted at the top of the page.

Illinois’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (Illinois -2.5), at 49% for Illinois (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Michigan State or Illinois flair (477 and 268); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Illinois’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

Illinois scored on 7 of its 10 drives; Michigan State on 6 of its 10.

Illinois’s drives are teal, Michigan State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From Michigan State’s side

Michigan State’s best moment: Patterson 2-yd TD run, ties it 31-31 (Q4 1:17). It lifted Michigan State’s win chance by 24 points.

How Michigan State fans took it: “Its the hope that kills you” r/CFB game thread

“Yea let’s go to OT instead of at least trying to win it with two timeouts”

A Michigan State fan

When fans got loud

Firestorm

The jump was firestorm; the crowd was busy.

A large share of the loudest stretch was about the officiating.

Fans of both teams were loud at once in the bracketed stretch.

“Benjamin Netanyahu has something to do with this, I just can't prove it yet”

A Michigan State fan

Two crowds, one game

The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.

Illinois fans

houser“Houser is gone after this season anyway. Let the freshman take the reins and be ready for next season.”

Michigan State fans

smith“Say what you want about Fitz but Smith would have just been an emotionless monolith that whole sequence”

Both sets of fans kept coming back to: refs, call, don, now.

Box score

Illinois 38, Michigan State 37

Michigan State covered +2.5 by 1.5. The total, 75, went over 48.5.

Team totals	Illinois	Michigan State
Total yards	409	342
Passing	26 of 37, 282 yds	23 of 27, 215 yds
Rushing	33 for 127 yds	27 for 127 yds
First downs	25	19
Third down	5 of 12	6 of 10
Fourth down	1 of 2	1 of 1
Turnovers	1	1
Penalties	2 for 16 yds	9 for 69 yds
Time of possession	33:52	26:08

Illinois leaders

Passing Katin Houser 20 of 29, 194 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Rushing Aidan Laughery 17 for 70 yds; Javari Barnett 3 for 22 yds
Receiving Hudson Clement 6 for 105 yds, 1 TD; Collin Dixon 7 for 62 yds, 1 TD

Michigan State leaders

Passing Alessio Milivojevic 22 of 26, 196 yds, 2 TD
Rushing Jaziun Patterson 17 for 93 yds, 3 TD; Chrishon Mccray 2 for 15 yds
Receiving Jayden Savoury 6 for 49 yds; Fredrick Moore 2 for 42 yds, 1 TD

No rain and calm

74° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 10 mph from the southeast, mostly at an angle to the field, gusts to 21

The usual here around this date is 57°, with about 7 in 10 games between 49° and 67°.

October game-day temperatures at Spartan Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Overtime7:14 p.m.

Illinois 38, Michigan State 31 · Michigan State 29% to win

no rain · wind 8 mph from the southeast · 67°

Clayton 25-yd TD pass to Clement, Illinois goes ahead 38-31

Measured at Lansing airport, 6.0 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Illinois · 2-3

Rated 70th in our preseason ratings, 68th now.

1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 17-24 vs Purdue #106 of 668

lost by 7 as a 9.5-point favorite

L 19-42 @ Ohio StateTop 25 #2 of 668

lost by 23 as a 25.5-point underdog

W 48-10 vs Southern Illinois #154 of 668

won by 38 as a 34.5-point favorite

L 27-31 vs DukeTop 25 #67 of 668

lost by 4 as a 6-point favorite

W 42-23 vs UAB #55 of 668

won by 19 as a 25.5-point favorite

Last three games

Michigan State · 2-3

Rated 170th in our preseason ratings, 139th now, up 31 spots.

Three straight losses.

L 3-31 @ Wisconsin #52 of 668

lost by 28 as an 8.5-point underdog

L 13-31 vs Nebraska #28 of 668

lost by 18 as a 6-point underdog

L 10-27 @ Notre DameTop 25 #3 of 668

lost by 17 as a 28.5-point underdog

W 35-7 vs Eastern Michigan #122 of 668

won by 28 as a 17.5-point favorite

W 30-20 vs Toledo #50 of 668

won by 10 as a 10-point favorite

Week by week

Michigan State

Wk 1Wvs Toledo30-20
Wk 2Wvs Eastern Michigan35-7
Wk 3Lat Notre Dame10-27
Wk 4Lvs Nebraska13-31
Wk 5Lat Wisconsin3-31

Illinois

Wk 1Wvs UAB42-23
Wk 2Lvs Duke27-31
Wk 3Wvs Southern Illinois48-10
Wk 4Lat Ohio State19-42
Wk 5Lvs Purdue17-24

Power rating by week

Illinois is rated 5.5 points ahead as of week 5. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Illinois’s EPA/play against Michigan State, 73 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Illinois’s EPA/play against Michigan State’s defense
Illinois offense, 84th percentile · Michigan State defense, 11th
Illinois’s passing EPA against Michigan State’s defense
Illinois offense, 78th percentile · Michigan State defense, 15th
Illinois’s explosive plays against Michigan State’s defense
Illinois offense, 60th percentile · Michigan State defense, 9th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

IllinoisMichigan State

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

Michigan State leads the series 27-20-2

49 meetings since 1955 · Illinois won the last meeting

2024Illinois 38-16
2022Michigan State 23-15
2019Illinois 37-34
2016Illinois 31-27
2013Michigan State 42-3

Each line is Michigan State’s chance to win through that meeting. Michigan State is 1-2 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Illinois fans are feeling it less than most fanbases this week (28th among FBS fanbases), and the other side is no happier.

Illinois favored by 2.5 · Total 48.5

How games like this usually go

Illinois by 2.5, and it went to form

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 253 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.

The market

The total rose 1 point.

The books’ cut: 4.1%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Michigan State is worth +2.8 points (±4.0) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 27th percentile.

53% at home, 32% on the road against FBS opponents (27-24 home, 13-28 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -6.2 at home vs. away over 96 games — outside the ±5.7 noise, one of the few buildings where results say more.

The visitors travel about 266 miles to get here.

Last meeting in our History pages

Michigan State 23, Illinois 15Nov 5, 2022

Our History pages cover 2 of their meetings since 2019.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

Michigan State14th0-2
Illinois13th0-2

Full Big Ten standings

Illinois beats Michigan State 38-37 in overtime