Toledo
Michigan State
12:00 AM · Spartan Stadium
Fan take
Michigan State fans
What’s at stake
Michigan State
- Michigan State hasn’t beaten a ranked opponent since 2022.
Toledo
- Toledo sits at 3% to make the CFP field — 4% with a win here, 2% with a loss.
- Toledo is the MAC program whose 1969-1972 35-game unbeaten streak + Glass Bowl venue + Jason Candle longevity define what historic-MAC-stalwart looks like.
The series
Michigan State leads the series 2-0
2 meetings since 1925 · Michigan State has won the last 2
- 2026Michigan State 30–20
- 1925Michigan State 58–0
Best players
Michigan State
- Rodney Bullard Jr. (WR) · 90 receiving yards
- Camryn Edwards (RB) · 98 rushing yards
- Alessio Milivojevic (QB) · 247 passing yards — Heisman odds: 117th (+50000)
Toledo
- Isaac Zay (LB) · 12 tackles
- Julian Fox (LB) · 10 tackles
- Mo Conteh (S) · 10 tackles
The line, and the room
Toledo fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (39th percentile) — the mood matches the numbers.
- Model · 21%
- Market · 79%
- Michigan State fans · 31st
- Toledo fans · 39th
Home −10 · O/U 48.5
Conditions
73°F · 2 mph wind · Fair
Home-field advantage: Strong
Michigan State is 59% at home, 33% on the road since 2018 (30-21 home, 13-26 away).
Toledo 20 – Michigan State 30
Missed — picked Toledo, Michigan State won.
Players to watch
Michigan State
- Rodney Bullard Jr. WR90 Receiving yards
- Camryn Edwards RB98 Rushing yards
- Alessio Milivojevic QB247 Passing yards
- Chrishon Mccray WR69 Receiving yards
- Michael Richard Jr. S5 Tackles
Toledo
- Isaac Zay LB12 Tackles
- Julian Fox LB10 Tackles
- Mo Conteh S10 Tackles
- Adjatay Dabbs WR101 Receiving yards
- Armorion Smith S7 Tackles
The market
Spread: −10.5 → −10
Book hold: 4.2%
The pregame pick missed: Michigan State beat Toledo 30-20.