3identity shift
Western Kentucky: the fanbase's identity shifting.
Tyson Helton enters his sixth season with a 9-4 record, anchoring a program whose identity hinges on redefining what historic Kentucky football means beyond Lexington.
Western Kentucky9-4Latest
The Western Kentucky faithful are all the way in.
belief warmed ↑ 2.1vs prior week
Fanbase belief
Bullish
65/100 · 23 mentions · top 5% of FBS
~ our readVolatility
Chaotic
σ 28 pts
Credible bullish
~ our readThe model
#86
CFB Zeitgeist · -1.1
✓ measured3Hope-Doping·Offseason
Western Kentucky is the program that just makes a bowl, every year, no drama — seven straight under Tyson Helton, the latest a New Orleans Bowl win, while the rest of the state only watches Lexington.
Title DroughtSince 2016 · 9 yrs
Hilltopper Nation knows the joke — that people hear 'Kentucky football' and never think of Bowling Green. They say the program that wins eight or nine games like clockwork deserves more than to be the…
offseason · quiet
Roster Reload - Western Kentucky
2026 snapshot - 2026-08-06Returning Production33%Low continuity / heavy reload
Talent Composite#100 nationally247 composite 561.4
Portal Additions19Primary repair: IOL
Portal Losses22Primary pressure: CB
Draft Loss0No NFL Draft departures recorded
Recruiting Reload#81Depth class
IOLin 6 - Roq Montgomeryout 2 - Laurence SeymoreNeed Filled
current room: 310 lbs avg (2025 roster)
WRin 2 - Jyzaiah Rockwellout 4 - Dylan VickersonStarter Risk
current room: 186 lbs avg (2025 roster)
CBin 0out 4 - Dylan FlowersStarter Risk
current room: 190 lbs avg (2025 roster)
LBin 2 - Garrison Maddenout 2 - Miller MaloneEven
current room: 225 lbs avg (2025 roster)
EDGEin 1 - Nathan Gonzalesout 2 - Harper HollomanDowngrade
DLin 1 - Kiawan Murphyout 2 - Chukwunedu OkekeDowngrade
current room: 289 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Approaching
31 days
until kickoff · at Nevada · Sun Sep 6 · 02:30 UTC
The experience
Western Kentucky is the Conference USA program whose Mike Sanford / Jeff Brohm Air Raid eras + 2002 FCS championship + 2024 8-5 bowl eligibility define what historic-Kentucky-football looks like outside Lexington.
Offense: SolidRun/Pass: Pass-first, spreadTempo: Methodical, ball-control
Western Kentucky faces a high-volatility season with heavy roster turnover and limited returning
The team's recruiting rank of #81 and a returning player percentage of 33% indicate significant reliance on transfers, while the transfer profile shows a balanced but volatile churn.
- Roster reloadWith 19 incoming transfers and 22 outgoing, Western Kentucky's roster is undergoing a major overhaul, as reflected in the transfer_in_total of 19 and transfer_out_total of 22.
Data as of 2026-08-03
·
Validated against program evidence
Big Red is patient.
Western Kentucky · the story right now
12 storylines developing
What Western Kentucky's transfer portal class is really about
the open questionis the portal class enough to move the needle?
portal2025-06-05~readnew
Brock Glenn (QB) arrives as Western Kentucky’s answer to an 18% QB production return, headlining a top-13 portal class that’s the third-largest in FBS this cycle.
what happenedWestern Kentucky signed a top-35 transfer-portal class — 42 additions headlined by Maverick McIvor (QB) from Abilene Christian and Caleb McMickle (QB) from Houston. ✓ fact
the contextthe third-largest transfer-portal haul in FBS this cycle (42 additions)
narrative tension · our read
money downthis cycle✓ factnew
K.D. Hutchinson is a legitimate money-down target -- his 3rd-down conversion rate ranks among the position's best, and his per-target value holds up in that spot too.
narrative tension · our read
money downthis cycle✓ factnew
Matthew Henry is a legitimate money-down target -- his 3rd-down conversion rate ranks among the position's best, and his per-target value holds up in that spot too.
narrative tension · our read
underdogthis cycle✓ factnew
Moussa Barry produces at a notably LOWER rate when his team is an underdog than when favored -- he fades when the pressure is on, and his per-target value drops too.
narrative tension · our read
identitythis cycle~readnew
Tyson Helton enters his sixth season with a 9-4 record, anchoring a program whose identity hinges on redefining what historic Kentucky football means beyond Lexington.
what happenedWestern Kentucky: the fanbase's identity shifting. ✓ fact
narrative tension · our read
program_outlookthis cycle~readnew
Western Kentucky enters 2026 — the 9-4 record and No. 69 SP+ ranking highlight a program redefining its identity beyond the Air Raid legacy in Conference USA.
what happenedWestern Kentucky enters 2026 rated No. 69 in 2025 SP+ (+1.6), up 9 spots from 2024. ✓ fact
narrative tension · our read
closerthis cycle~attributednew
George Hart III: a closer signal screened this season.
narrative tension · our read
deep threatthis cycle~attributednew
K.D. Hutchinson is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
narrative tension · our read
closerthis cycle~attributednew
La'Vell Wright: a closer signal screened this season.
narrative tension · our read
deep threatthis cycle~attributednew
Moussa Barry is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
narrative tension · our read
coordinatorsthis cycle✓ factnew
Western Kentucky: coordinator change reshaping a unit.
narrative tension · our read
coordinatorsthis cycle✓ factnew
Western Kentucky: coordinator change reshaping a unit.
narrative tension · our read
How past storylines here turned out
ReplacedWestern Kentucky's offensive coordinator spot turned over again the following season. See who's next →
The story
The Offseason Ledger · Western Kentucky
6 verified updates · portal · recruiting · staff · news- Portal
RB Kalib Hicks transfer commits from Oklahoma State
Lost La'Vell Wright, added four bodies — but Hicks dropping from Big 12 competition to C-USA gives Helton's backfield a tier-jump the depth numbers alone don't show.
- News
WKU player dismissed for failure to report
A CB room already under pressure before this — Helton's depth class at #96 nationally can't absorb a dismissal at a position where the margin was already razor thin.
- Recruiting
Owens commits to WKU
CB room was the pressure point all offseason — Owens drops into a depth class ranked 80th nationally that still needed bodies at the spot where C-USA games get decided on the outside.
- News
Win total (line at 6.5) still unmoved 13d after "WKU player dismissed for failure to report"
The market hasn't budged since "WKU player dismissed for failure to report" broke on 2026-07-15 — either the books see it as already priced in, or this one's genuinely slipped past them.
- News
Win total (line at 6.5) still unmoved 12d after "WKU player dismissed for failure to report"
The market hasn't budged since "WKU player dismissed for failure to report" broke on 2026-07-15 — either the books see it as already priced in, or this one's genuinely slipped past them.
- News
Win total (line at 6.5) still unmoved 11d after "WKU player dismissed for failure to report"
The market hasn't budged since "WKU player dismissed for failure to report" broke on 2026-07-15 — either the books see it as already priced in, or this one's genuinely slipped past them.
Transfer portal snapshot
+0.1 net portal points
(raw ledger: -6.0 — unweighted, no position adjustment)IOL+12.0
need not filled
CB-11.8
starter risk
K-6.4
starter risk
EDGE-3.7
DL-3.7
QB+3.5
low confidence
RB+3.3
S+3.1
LB-2.6
OT+2.3
WR-2.0
starter risk
TE+0.0
Top 3 commits
2026 class
★★★☆☆
Devin Hamilton
#1114 national
Profiles like a typical incoming wide receiver — 14 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Possession Receiver archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
★★★☆☆
Cam O'Hara
#1308 national
Profiles like a typical incoming quarterback — 17 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Pocket Passer archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
★★★☆☆
Tre'von McGory
#1358 national
Profiles like a typical incoming wide receiver — 17 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Possession Receiver archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
Fan vs. market↑
95th
Fan percentile
(FBS mood rank)
(FBS mood rank)
6.5
Vegas O/U wins
(41st among FBS)
(41st among FBS)
Fans 54pp more bullish than market implies
Win total consensus · 3 books
Market outlook
Season expectations
Win total3 booksO/U 6.5
CFP championship#86 in field+100000
C-USA title#2 in market+280
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-08-06
Western Kentucky · Next-Season Outcome Band
Western Kentucky · Next-Season Outcome BandFloor / Base / Ceiling
Floor 4-8
Base 7-6
Ceiling 9-4
floor4-8No postseason.
base7-6Bowl game.
ceiling9-4Bowl game.
Final-season-aware projection: floor / base / ceiling include conference title and CFP games where the model supports them, so a ceiling can exceed a 12-game regular season.
How the room reacted
Developing · Western Kentucky · Transfer portal Confidence
Western Kentucky went deep in the portal this cycle. Portal volume is the start of the story, not the verdict.
Western Kentucky signed a top-35 transfer-portal class — 42 additions headlined by Maverick McIvor (QB) from Abilene Christian and Caleb McMickle (QB) from Houston. It is the third-largest transfer-portal haul in FBS this cycle (42 additions). Portal pickups are proven college players — the split isn't about development, it's about whether they fit the scheme and win their position battles. Coverage is split on whether volume or positional fit is the bigger story.
bullish — but with real dissent
where the takes land · dot = how loud
DOUBTBELIEF
Skeptics2 doubt takes
Believers5 bull takes
Developing1 new this week
yesterdayVictory Vaka lost his Western Kentucky scholarship while grieving mother's death; now he's suing to transfer — news
last weekWin total (line at 6.5) still unmoved 13d after "WKU player dismissed for failure to report"
last weekWin total (line at 6.5) still unmoved 12d after "WKU player dismissed for failure to report"
last weekWin total (line at 6.5) still unmoved 11d after "WKU player dismissed for failure to report"
last weekWin total (line at 6.5) still unmoved 10d after "WKU player dismissed for failure to report"
The cast who's driving the story · latest headline on each, attributed
Maverick McIvor QB · Abilene Christian
Caleb McMickle QB · Houston
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Brock Glenn (QB) arrives as Western Kentucky’s answer to an 18% QB production return, headlining a top-13 portal class that’s the third-largest in FBS this cycle.
Next · what to watch
The non-obvious question after any portal class isn't who signed — it's who just lost their job. Depth-chart displacement is the untold second chapter: one starter-level arrival means a returning contributor is now competing or transferring out. Watch depth-chart competition in fall camp — that's where portal classes win or lose their billing.
Source of record: Western Kentucky signed a top-35 transfer-portal class — 42 additions headlined by Maverick McIvor (QB) from Abilene Christian and Caleb McMickle (QB) from Houston — the third-largest transfer-portal haul in FBS this cycle (42 additions).
How each room reacted — tap to expand
📣Believers5 bullish/portal items -- the case it's working.›
The 'portal class fills the gaps' believers -- upgrades at real positions of need.
“Western Kentucky INF Lane Arroyos commits to Texas A&M out of NCAA transfer portal”
On3 · 2026-07-19 · read ↗
“OU football lands former Western Kentucky OL Caleb Nitta from transfer portal”
Tulsa World · 2026-07-12 · read ↗
“Texas Football transfer portal signee wins NCAA eligibility appeal”
Yahoo Sports · 2026-03-18 · read ↗
🧐Skeptics“Victory Vaka’s Western Kentucky exit exposes NCAA transfer rule ” — the real counter.›
The 'portal is a gamble' counter -- departure losses and the 'plug-and-play doesn't work' read.
“Victory Vaka’s Western Kentucky exit exposes NCAA transfer rule problem”
The Big Lead · 2026-07-16 · read ↗
Following now · Western Kentucky · Developing Confidence
Western Kentucky: the fanbase's identity shifting.
Western Kentucky: the fanbase's identity shifting.
near-unanimous belief
where the takes land · dot = how loud
DOUBTBELIEF
Believers5 bull takes
The saga so far~4 months old
last weekWin total (line at 6.5) still unmoved 13d after "WKU player dismissed for failure to report"
last weekWin total (line at 6.5) still unmoved 12d after "WKU player dismissed for failure to report"
last weekWin total (line at 6.5) still unmoved 11d after "WKU player dismissed for failure to report"
last weekWin total (line at 6.5) still unmoved 10d after "WKU player dismissed for failure to report"
last weekWin total (line at 6.5) — no reprice yet on "WKU player dismissed for failure to report"
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Tyson Helton enters his sixth season with a 9-4 record, anchoring a program whose identity hinges on redefining what historic Kentucky football means beyond Lexington.
Source of record: Western Kentucky: the fanbase's identity shifting.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
📣Believers5 bullish items -- the case it's working.›
The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.
“Hilltoppers Dominate in 4-1 Win Against Murray State”
Western Kentucky University Athletics · 2026-08-06 · read ↗
“Lady Topper Golf Adds Madson to 2026-27 Roster”
Western Kentucky University Athletics · 2026-08-05 · read ↗
“Western Kentucky 1984 Football Commits”
247Sports · 2026-08-03 · read ↗
🧐SkepticsNo prominent dissent — the coverage runs one way.›
The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
Recent Form · last 10 games
Mixed
Three of five. Trending up, not yet hot.
Streak W1Last 5 · 3-2Last 10 · 7-3
The forecast
Opens Sep 6
vs Nevada · away
Season line6.5 winsover -180
SolidPass-first, spreadMethodical, ball-control
✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style
Rival pulse
Middle Tennessee
Mixed+3
100 Miles of Hate
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
24
GA · 9FL · 5AL · 4TN · 4KY · 1OH · 1
GA leads the 2026 class with 9 commits. National footprint reaching 6 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
78 signees across 18 states, 2023-2026. GA leads the pull.
Community pulse
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
National spotlight
6 games with TV coverage: 1 ESPN, 3 cable, 1 conference network, 1 streaming
Kickoff windows: 1 afternoon, 5 primetime
Fumble luck
Recovering 12% of their own fumbles — running cold vs. the ~51% league rate.
1 of 8 own fumbles recovered themselves; 5 of 7 forced fumbles recovered, 2025 only.
Takeaway conversion
Getting hands on the ball but not cashing in: 13% of disruptions converted, vs. the ~19% league rate.
8 interceptions of 60 disrupted passes (52 deflected, 8 intercepted), 2025 only.
Penalty battle
Winning the penalty battle: 81 penalties committed vs. 101 drawn on opponents, a 83-yard edge.
797 penalty yards committed vs. 880 drawn on opponents, 2025 season total.
The Pulse on Western Kentucky
65
Δ +2.1 vs last wk
23
mentions this week · conversation velocity
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Camp
Fall camp open — install + scrimmage cycle
ongoing
Kickoff
Season opener in 16 days
kickoff
"Go Tops"
— Western Kentucky fanbase · recurring line
Fanbase Signals
Cohort Divergence1 pctSpread between sub-fanbase cohorts in the Pulse window.
The Fever Year
Position = mood · width = volume · color = the kind of feeling
Cr/CFB
GGoogle News
UUnderdog Dynasty
CCampus paper
BBluesky
YYouTube
What little we hear
Only 2 cohort(s) cleared the signal floor this week, so we won’t stage a split we can’t back. Here’s the honest read:
National take+0.34
Millennials+0.33
63 mentions · 6 sources · week 2026-01. Counts, sources and the divergence rank are measured (fact). Cohort labels and sentiment are a source-weighted model read (our read) — never a quote attributed to a person.
Belief checklow signal
~ our readNot enough Western Kentucky chatter this week to read the room.
We read 23 Western Kentucky posts this week — not enough to call the room. Check back during the season.
Five Lenses
What people are saying right now
Radio, beat writers & editorial14 posts
News & campus coverage3 posts
CFB analyst takes2 posts
Fanbase Health Index · Western Kentucky · high confidence
Fanbase Health Index · Western Kentucky · high confidenceGrowing (60)
DecliningStableGrowingSurging
On-Field — 9-4 (69% win rate)70
Volume — 167 effective signal-N74
Cohort Engagement — Divergence 0.01 — quiet35
Key stats — 2025 — FBS rank
Points/game#46 / 138 · 67th pct29.5
Pts allowed/game#46 / 138 · 67th pct22.8
Total yards/gm#49 / 136 · 65th pct406.8
Rush yards/gm#86 / 136 · 38th pct134.6
Pass yards/gm#25 / 136 · 82nd pct272.2
Yards allowed/gm#108 / 136 · 21st pct400.6
Rush yds allowed/gm#110 / 136 · 20th pct176.1
Sacks#113 / 136 · 18th pct18
Interceptions#68 / 136 · 51st pct9
3rd-down conv#25 / 136 · 82nd pct45.9%
All 98 stats
Offense / Defense
Total yards
Team5288406.8/gm5.82/play#49 / 136 · 65th pct#30 / 70 · 59th pct#4 / 10 · 70th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Opp5208400.6/gm5.59/play#108 / 136 · 21st pct#63 / 70 · 11th pct#5 / 10 · 60th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Rush yards
Team1750134.6/gm1.93/play#86 / 136 · 38th pct#45 / 70 · 37th pct#5 / 10 · 60th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Opp2289176.1/gm2.46/play#110 / 136 · 20th pct#62 / 70 · 13th pct#8 / 10 · 30th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
Rush carries
Team41331.8/gm#93 / 136 · 32nd pct#48 / 70 · 33rd pct#5 / 10 · 60th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
Opp46535.8/gm#82 / 136 · 40th pct#50 / 70 · 30th pct#8 / 10 · 30th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Rush TDs
Team231.8/gm#53 / 136 · 62nd pct#30 / 70 · 59th pct#4 / 10 · 70th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Opp141.1/gm#34 / 136 · 76th pct#25 / 70 · 66th pct#1 / 10 · 100th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Net pass yards
Team3538272.2/gm3.90/play#25 / 136 · 82nd pct#18 / 70 · 76th pct#3 / 10 · 80th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Opp2919224.5/gm3.13/play#88 / 136 · 36th pct#49 / 70 · 31st pct#3 / 10 · 80th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Pass attempts
Team49538.1/gm#13 / 136 · 91st pct#7 / 70 · 91st pct#3 / 10 · 80th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
Opp46735.9/gm#125 / 136 · 9th pct#64 / 70 · 10th pct#10 / 10 · 10th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
Completions
Team32525.0/gm#9 / 136 · 94th pct#5 / 70 · 94th pct#2 / 10 · 90th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
Opp25719.8/gm#90 / 136 · 35th pct#45 / 70 · 37th pct#3 / 10 · 80th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
Pass TDs
Team211.6/gm#53 / 136 · 62nd pct#33 / 70 · 54th pct#5 / 10 · 60th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Opp120.9/gm#10 / 136 · 93rd pct#8 / 70 · 90th pct#1 / 10 · 100th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Passer rating
Team136.1136.1#65 / 136 · 53rd pct#39 / 70 · 46th pct#3 / 10 · 80th pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct
Opp110.4110.4#9 / 136 · 94th pct#6 / 70 · 93rd pct#1 / 10 · 100th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Interceptions thrown
Team131.0/gm#18 / 136 · 88th pct#7 / 70 · 91st pct#2 / 10 · 90th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Opp90.7/gm#54 / 136 · 61st pct#27 / 70 · 63rd pct#4 / 10 · 70th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Sacks (def)
Team181.4/gm#113 / 136 · 18th pct#64 / 70 · 10th pct#8 / 10 · 30th pct#9 / 10 · 20th pct
Opp231.8/gm#63 / 136 · 54th pct#35 / 70 · 51st pct#1 / 10 · 100th pct#5 / 10 · 60th pct
Tackles for loss
Team715.5/gm#60 / 136 · 57th pct#34 / 70 · 53rd pct#4 / 10 · 70th pct#5 / 10 · 60th pct
Opp705.4/gm#83 / 136 · 40th pct#46 / 70 · 36th pct#3 / 10 · 80th pct#6 / 10 · 50th pct
First downs
Team27821.4/gm#47 / 136 · 66th pct#28 / 70 · 61st pct#4 / 10 · 70th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
Opp26820.6/gm#102 / 136 · 26th pct#58 / 70 · 19th pct#5 / 10 · 60th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
3rd-down conv
Team846.5/gm#13 / 136 · 91st pct#8 / 70 · 90th pct#1 / 10 · 100th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Opp725.5/gm#83 / 136 · 40th pct#49 / 70 · 31st pct#5 / 10 · 60th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
3rd-down att
Team18314.1/gm#33 / 136 · 76th pct#13 / 70 · 83rd pct#6 / 10 · 50th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
Opp20515.8/gm#128 / 136 · 7th pct#63 / 70 · 11th pct#10 / 10 · 10th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
4th-down conv
Team50.4/gm#134 / 136 · 2nd pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#10 / 10 · 10th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Opp100.8/gm#22 / 136 · 85th pct#9 / 70 · 89th pct#3 / 10 · 80th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
4th-down att
Team151.2/gm#128 / 136 · 7th pct#64 / 70 · 10th pct#9 / 10 · 20th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Opp312.4/gm#97 / 136 · 29th pct#50 / 70 · 30th pct#7 / 10 · 40th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
Time of possession
Team384:4229:36/gm#61 / 136 · 56th pct#32 / 70 · 56th pct#6 / 10 · 50th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
Opp395:2430:25/gm#95 / 136 · 31st pct#49 / 70 · 31st pct#8 / 10 · 30th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Kicking & Punting
Field goals#45 / 135 · 67th pct18/22 (81.8%)
Extra points46/46
Punting#1 / 136 · 100th pct48.4 avg · 57 punts
Turnovers & special teams
Turnovers
Team211.6/gm#17 / 136 · 88th pct#5 / 70 · 94th pct#2 / 10 · 90th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Opp141.1/gm#40 / 136 · 71st pct#24 / 70 · 67th pct#1 / 10 · 100th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Fumbles lost
Team80.6/gm#25 / 136 · 82nd pct#9 / 70 · 89th pct#2 / 10 · 90th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
Opp50.4/gm#33 / 136 · 76th pct#16 / 70 · 79th pct#2 / 10 · 90th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
INT return TDs
Team10.1/gm#36 / 135 · 74th pct#19 / 70 · 74th pct#1 / 10 · 100th pct#5 / 11 · 64th pct
Opp10.1/gm#61 / 136 · 56th pct#30 / 70 · 59th pct#4 / 10 · 70th pct#3 / 11 · 82nd pct
INT return yards
Team997.6/gm#82 / 136 · 40th pct#41 / 70 · 43rd pct#9 / 10 · 20th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Opp25019.2/gm#129 / 136 · 6th pct#68 / 70 · 4th pct#9 / 10 · 20th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Punt ret yds
Team90.7/gm#135 / 136 · 1st pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#10 / 10 · 10th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Opp19414.9/gm#110 / 136 · 20th pct#58 / 70 · 19th pct#9 / 10 · 20th pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct
Punt ret TDs
Team00.0/gm#43 / 135 · 69th pct#23 / 70 · 69th pct#5 / 10 · 60th pct#3 / 10 · 80th pct
Opp00.0/gm#1 / 135 · 100th pct#1 / 70 · 100th pct#1 / 10 · 100th pct#1 / 9 · 100th pct
Kick ret yds
Team37829.1/gm#81 / 136 · 41st pct#35 / 70 · 51st pct#8 / 10 · 30th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Opp42432.6/gm#77 / 136 · 44th pct#48 / 70 · 33rd pct#5 / 10 · 60th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Kick ret TDs
Team10.1/gm#7 / 136 · 96th pct#3 / 70 · 97th pct#1 / 10 · 100th pct#2 / 9 · 89th pct
Opp10.1/gm#97 / 135 · 29th pct#53 / 70 · 26th pct#7 / 10 · 40th pct#6 / 10 · 50th pct
Penalty yards
Team79761.3/gm#27 / 136 · 81st pct#13 / 70 · 83rd pct#4 / 10 · 70th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Opp88067.7/gm#127 / 136 · 7th pct#68 / 70 · 4th pct#7 / 10 · 40th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Other
H2 epa per play#18 / 142 · 88th pct#12 / 70 · 84th pct#1 / 10 · 100th pct0.30.0/gm
Red zone pass rate#22 / 154 · 86th pct#8 / 70 · 90th pct#4 / 10 · 70th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct0.50.0/gm
H2 epa per play opponent#23 / 143 · 85th pct#14 / 70 · 81st pct#1 / 10 · 100th pct0.10.0/gm
Kick ret (opp)#47 / 136 · 66th pct#31 / 70 · 57th pct#2 / 10 · 90th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct171.3/gm
First down pass rate#48 / 215 · 78th pct#12 / 70 · 84th pct#4 / 10 · 70th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct0.50.0/gm
Penalties#51 / 136 · 63rd pct#25 / 70 · 66th pct#5 / 10 · 60th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct816.2/gm
Interceptions (def)#68 / 136 · 51st pct#35 / 70 · 51st pct#6 / 10 · 50th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct90.7/gm
Fourth down go rate#71 / 138 · 49th pct#38 / 70 · 47th pct#3 / 10 · 80th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct0.40.0/gm
Kick returns#75 / 136 · 46th pct#31 / 70 · 57th pct#7 / 10 · 40th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct201.5/gm
H1 epa per play opponent#76 / 167 · 55th pct#39 / 70 · 46th pct#5 / 10 · 60th pct0.20.0/gm
Fumbles rec (def)#86 / 136 · 38th pct#50 / 70 · 30th pct#4 / 10 · 70th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct80.6/gm
Fumbles recovered#91 / 136 · 34th pct#48 / 70 · 33rd pct#8 / 10 · 30th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct50.4/gm
Recruiting rating#96 / 138 · 31st pct#68 / 70 · 4th pct#3 / 10 · 80th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct152.811.8/gm
H1 epa per play#99 / 162 · 40th pct#54 / 70 · 24th pct#7 / 10 · 40th pct0.20.0/gm
Passes intercepted opponent#109 / 136 · 21st pct#60 / 70 · 16th pct#7 / 10 · 40th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct131.0/gm
Penalties (opp)#128 / 136 · 7th pct#68 / 70 · 4th pct#9 / 10 · 20th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct1017.8/gm
Punt ret (opp)#128 / 136 · 7th pct#65 / 70 · 9th pct#10 / 10 · 10th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct251.9/gm
Punt returns#135 / 136 · 1st pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#10 / 10 · 10th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct50.4/gm
Situational
3rd-down conversion
Off45.9%#25 / 136 · 82nd pct#17 / 70 · 77th pct#1 / 10 · 100th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Def35.1%#35 / 136 · 75th pct#18 / 70 · 76th pct#1 / 10 · 100th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
4th-down conversion
Off33.3%#129 / 136 · 6th pct#69 / 70 · 3rd pct#8 / 10 · 30th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Def32.3%#3 / 136 · 99th pct#2 / 70 · 99th pct#1 / 10 · 100th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Turnover margin#112 / 136 · 18th pct#61 / 70 · 14th pct#9 / 10 · 20th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct-0.54/gm
Sack rate (def)#129 / 136 · 6th pct#66 / 70 · 7th pct#10 / 10 · 10th pct#9 / 10 · 20th pct3.9%
Red Zone & Drive Efficiency (2014– , play-by-play derived)
Red zone trips
Team473.6/gm#53 / 167 · 69th pct#33 / 70 · 54th pct#4 / 10 · 70th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Opp473.6/gm#129 / 166 · 23rd pct#56 / 70 · 21st pct#5 / 10 · 60th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
Red zone score %
Team76.6%76.6%#95 / 167 · 44th pct#51 / 70 · 29th pct#5 / 10 · 60th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
Opp80.9%80.9%#104 / 166 · 38th pct#50 / 70 · 30th pct#8 / 10 · 30th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Points / drive
Team2.10.2/gm#68 / 167 · 60th pct#43 / 70 · 40th pct#3 / 10 · 80th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
Opp1.60.1/gm#43 / 166 · 75th pct#27 / 70 · 63rd pct#2 / 10 · 90th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Yards / drive
Team43.13.3/gm#54 / 167 · 68th pct#34 / 70 · 53rd pct#4 / 10 · 70th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Opp44.53.4/gm#137 / 166 · 18th pct#64 / 70 · 10th pct#8 / 10 · 30th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Plays / drive
Team6.40.5/gm#99 / 167 · 41st pct#50 / 70 · 30th pct#7 / 10 · 40th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Opp7.00.5/gm#143 / 166 · 14th pct#61 / 70 · 14th pct#10 / 10 · 10th pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct
Three-and-out rate
Team13.4%13.4%#80 / 167 · 53rd pct#41 / 70 · 43rd pct#6 / 10 · 50th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Opp12.8%12.8%#96 / 166 · 43rd pct#49 / 70 · 31st pct#5 / 10 · 60th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Scheme Identity (2014– , play-by-play derived)
Rush rate over expected#131 / 145 · 10th pct#65 / 70 · 9th pct#7 / 10 · 40th pct-8.8%-8.8%
Havoc rate
Team15.5%15.5%#75 / 140 · 47th pct#44 / 70 · 39th pct#7 / 10 · 40th pct
Opp14.4%14.4%#58 / 140 · 59th pct#28 / 70 · 61st pct#2 / 10 · 90th pct
Standard-downs success
Team48.5%48.5%#68 / 154 · 56th pct#39 / 70 · 46th pct#5 / 10 · 60th pct
Opp43.0%43.0%#19 / 172 · 90th pct#13 / 70 · 83rd pct#1 / 10 · 100th pct
Passing-downs success
Team35.0%35.0%#30 / 153 · 81st pct#20 / 70 · 73rd pct#1 / 10 · 100th pct
Opp29.1%29.1%#55 / 149 · 64th pct#30 / 70 · 59th pct#4 / 10 · 70th pct
Line yards / carry
Team3.13.1#47 / 143 · 68th pct#27 / 70 · 63rd pct#2 / 10 · 90th pct
Opp2.82.8#62 / 155 · 61st pct#36 / 70 · 50th pct#4 / 10 · 70th pct
Stuff rate
Team19.1%19.1%#84 / 143 · 42nd pct#44 / 70 · 39th pct#3 / 10 · 80th pct
Opp21.3%21.3%#36 / 155 · 77th pct#19 / 70 · 74th pct#3 / 10 · 80th pct
Power success rate
Team76.0%76.0%#37 / 137 · 74th pct#20 / 70 · 73rd pct#1 / 10 · 100th pct
Opp61.7%61.7%#25 / 141 · 83rd pct#13 / 70 · 83rd pct#2 / 10 · 90th pct
Efficiency
Completion %
Off65.7%#32 / 136 · 77th pct#21 / 70 · 71st pct#1 / 10 · 100th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
Def55.0%#10 / 136 · 93rd pct#4 / 70 · 96th pct#1 / 10 · 100th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Yards / attempt
Off7.1#69 / 136 · 50th pct#42 / 70 · 41st pct#4 / 10 · 70th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Def6.3#23 / 136 · 84th pct#15 / 70 · 80th pct#1 / 10 · 100th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Yards / completion
Off10.9#95 / 136 · 31st pct#52 / 70 · 27th pct#7 / 10 · 40th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Def11.4#64 / 136 · 54th pct#45 / 70 · 37th pct#3 / 10 · 80th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Yards / carry#83 / 136 · 40th pct#45 / 70 · 37th pct#5 / 10 · 60th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct4.2
Yards / play#58 / 136 · 58th pct#36 / 70 · 50th pct#4 / 10 · 70th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct5.82
Scoring margin#43 / 136 · 69th pct#32 / 70 · 56th pct#1 / 10 · 100th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct+6.7/gm
FBS rankings · 2025 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
Player stats — 2025 season
Quarterbacks
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pocket Passer · +0.23 EPA/play | 7 | 8 | 183 / 273 | 67.0 | 2062 | 7.6 | 12 | 6 | 140.6 | 56.3 | 7.0 | 3.2 | |
Yards by week → Pocket PasserBalanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 97 of 183 classified this way. Played in 8 of 21 games this season · senior View Maverick McIvor's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Pocket Passer · +0.07 EPA/play | 16 | 8 | 139 / 212 | 65.6 | 1432 | 6.8 | 9 | 7 | 129.7 | 54.8 | 5.4 | 5.4 | |
Yards by week → Pocket PasserBalanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 97 of 183 QBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / attempt6.8 bottom 26th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts INT rate3.3% bottom 28th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like View Rodney Tisdale Jr.'s full player page | |||||||||||||
Running Backs
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Stuff% | 10+% | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Satellite Back · +0.01 EPA/play | 21 | 13 | 106 | 576 | 5.4 | 1 | 66 | 3.6 | 10 | 17.0 | 17.0 | 9.9% (40/405) | |
Yards by week → Satellite BackDeployed as a receiver as much as a runner. Value is in space, not between the tackles. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 50 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Receiving share25.4% 98th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Rush TD rate0.9% bottom 11th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Marvis Parrish's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Power Back · +0.33 EPA/play | 11 | 13 | 85 | 471 | 5.5 | 10 #46 FBS | 39 | 8.9 | 7.0 | 14.6 | 13.4 | — | |
Yards by week → Power BackShort-yardage and goal-line specialist. Carries the load, owns the red zone. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 10 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Rush TD rate11.8% 100th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / reception8.8 63th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View La'Vell Wright's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Balanced Back · +0.01 EPA/play | 9 | 13 | 70 | 300 | 4.3 | 5 | 36 | 6.5 | 8.5 | 21.7 | 15.9 | — | |
Yards by week → Balanced BackPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 186 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / carry4.0 bottom 14th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / reception2.1 bottom 5th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View George Hart III's full player page | |||||||||||||
Receivers
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slot Technician · +1.10 EPA/play | 17 | 13 | 55 | 888 #41 FBS | 16.1 | 6 #62 FBS | 55 | 13.1 | 11.5 | 18.0% (73/405) | |
Yards by week → Slot Technician· Money-downRuns precise routes in tight quarters. Volume player who keeps chains moving. lives on the sticks and moves the chains Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 97 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Reception volume55 86th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)1.1 99th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like our readUnranked recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile | |||||||||||
| Slot Technician · +0.51 EPA/play | 2 | 13 | 66 | 618 | 9.4 | 3 | 78 | 10.7 | 8.9 | 18.3% (74/405) | |
Yards by week → Slot Technician· Boom-or-bustRuns precise routes in tight quarters. Volume player who keeps chains moving. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 97 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Reception volume66 96th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Yards / reception9.5 bottom 16th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score now sits at the 82nd percentile among FBS WRs, up from the 46th | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.12 EPA/play | 3 | 13 | 34 | 488 | 14.4 | 1 | 48 | 3.9 | 7.3 | 12.3% (50/405) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception15.3 70th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.1 bottom 9th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Moussa Barry's full player page | |||||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.59 EPA/play | 81 | 11 | 32 | 357 | 11.2 | 3 | 62 | 4 | 3.6 | 8.6% (35/405) | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. The most common profile in its group this season — 177 of 223 classified this way. Played in 11 of 21 games this season · sophomore our readAscending: his CFB Index score climbed from the 15th percentile to the 76th among FBS TEs | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.66 EPA/play | 5 | 8 | 24 | 223 | 9.3 | 1 | 32 | 9 | 6.3 | 6.7% (27/405) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. The most common profile in its group this season — 332 of 558 classified this way. Played in 8 of 21 games this season · senior View Jairus Mack's full player page | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.34 EPA/play | 4 | 12 | 19 | 204 | 10.7 | 1 | 30 | 6.5 | 6.3 | 6.9% (28/405) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception8.6 bottom 11th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Reception volume19 bottom 20th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Cameron Flowers's full player page | |||||||||||
| +0.67 EPA/play | 13 | 5 | 11 | 165 | 15 | 0 | 45 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 3.7% (15/405) | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
| Complete TE · +1.63 EPA/play | 85 | 6 | 8 | 80 | 10 | 1 | 17 | 2.2 | 3.9 | — | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. 177 of 223 TEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception8.7 bottom 27th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions EPA / play (adj)1.6 100th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jackson West's full player page | |||||||||||
| +0.72 EPA/play | 84 | 6 | 8 | 77 | 9.6 | 1 | 20 | 5.8 | 5.2 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
Defensive Line
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Versatile End | 44 | 13 | 39 | 19 | 5.5 | 2 | 6 |
Versatile EndNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. The most common profile in its group this season — 139 of 200 classified this way. Played in 13 of 21 games this season · sophomore · 3-star, 2024 class our readBreakout: his CFB Index score climbed from the 13th percentile to the 82nd among FBS EDGEs | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | — | 12 | 33 | 12 | 7 | 1.5 | 4 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 388 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate21.2% 75th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readBreakout: his CFB Index score now sits at the 61st percentile among FBS IDLs, up from the 14th | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 93 | 12 | 28 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 2 |
Nose AnchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 152 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight320 lb 90th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Rylen Sua-Filo's full player page | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 98 | 10 | 20 | 9 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 |
Nose AnchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. 152 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight324 lb 93th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Jaden Hardy's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 15 | 9 | 17 | 10 | 3.5 | 1 | 4 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate20.6% 73th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Jayden Gray's full player page | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 13 | 9 | 16 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
Nose AnchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. 152 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight320 lb 90th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Robby Harrison's full player page | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 52 | 7 | 15 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Nose AnchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. 152 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight312 lb 84th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Jakeem Fletcher's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 55 | 8 | 14 | 5 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. The most common profile in its group this season — 388 of 809 classified this way. Played in 8 of 21 games this season · junior View Venson Sneed's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 50 | 8 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate7.7% bottom 23th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Elin Jones's full player page | |||||||
Linebackers
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Linebacker | 21 | 13 | 106 | 53 | 53 | 7 | 1.5 | 2 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. 362 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume106 98th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Sack rate1.4% bottom 33th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like our readBounce-Back: his CFB Index score shows a real arc: 54th percentile among FBS LBs, fell to 4th, now back up to 76th | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 3 | 13 | 74 | 36 | 38 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 362 of 660 classified this way. Played in 13 of 21 games this season · senior · 3-star, 2022 class our readBreakout: his CFB Index score now sits at the 62nd percentile among FBS LBs, up from the 10th | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 8 | 9 | 37 | 17 | 20 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. The most common profile in its group this season — 362 of 660 classified this way. Played in 9 of 21 games this season · sophomore View Miller Malone's full player page | |||||||||
| Thumper | 9 | 9 | 20 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
ThumperDownhill striker who fills the run lane and blitzes off the edge. 97 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate20.0% 93th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Sack rate15.0% 99th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score moved from the 11th to 42nd percentile among FBS LBs | |||||||||
| Thumper | 34 | 9 | 19 | 12 | 7 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1 | 1 |
ThumperDownhill striker who fills the run lane and blitzes off the edge. 97 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate18.4% 90th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Sack rate13.2% 98th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Koron Hayward's full player page | |||||||||
| 22 | 8 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 20 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Defensive Backs
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rover | 7 | 13 | 74 | 5 | 3 #56 FBS | 3.5 | 0 |
RoverHits like a linebacker and still takes the ball away. Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. 83 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate6.8% bottom 44th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score went from the 51st percentile among FBS Ss to the 89th | |||||||
| Box Safety | 17 | 13 | 58 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Box SafetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 166 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume58 78th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like our readReinvented: changed shape entirely — Hybrid Nickel to Box Safety, his CFB Index score moved from the 0th to 47th percentile among FBS Ss | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 6 | 12 | 35 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 0.5 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 419 of 801 classified this way. Played in 12 of 21 games this season · sophomore · 3-star, 2023 class View Nazir Ward's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 10 | 12 | 33 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 419 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate12.1% 71th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Dylan Flowers's full player page | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 11 | 10 | 29 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 133 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate13.8% 78th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like our readFading: his CFB Index score climbed from the 76th percentile to the 9th among FBS Ss | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 2 | 9 | 28 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 419 of 801 classified this way. Played in 9 of 21 games this season · senior our readFading: his CFB Index score moved from the 82nd to 44th percentile among FBS Ss | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 12 | 9 | 26 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 133 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate11.5% 68th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Jaavan Mack's full player page | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 1 | 7 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 133 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate9.5% 58th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Demarko Williams's full player page | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 26 | 10 | 21 | 5 | 0 | 1.5 | 1 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 133 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate23.8% 98th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Jai Eugene Jr.'s full player page | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 16 | 10 | 20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 133 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate15.0% 83th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Avarion Cole's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 5 | 10 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 2 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 419 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate16.7% 88th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Jalen Emery's full player page | |||||||
| 14 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Kicking
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 39 | 13 | 16/20 | 80 | 46/46 | 94 | 49 |
| 42 | 2 | 2/2 | 100 | 0/0 | 6 | 55 |
Punting
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cannon | 18 | 13 | 57 | 2756 | 48.4 | 71 | 15 | 5 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
Kick Returns
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Possession Receiver · +0.34 EPA/play | 4 | 12 | 10 | 162 | 16.2 | 0 | 40 |
| Centerfielder | 1 | 7 | 7 | 131 | 18.7 | 0 | 34 |
Punt Returns
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Possession Receiver · +0.66 EPA/play | 5 | 8 | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 | 10 |
2025 stat leaders
final
2025 stat leaders
1.
Jaylen Wester
LB
106 tot (def)
2.
Matthew Henry
WR
888 yds (rec)
3.
Jaylen Lewis
DB
74.0 tot (def)
4.
Anthony Brackenridge
LB
74.0 tot (def)
5.
Dave Herard
DB
58.0 tot (def)
Roster
2025
32
players carry a qualified CFB Index Score this season.
Matthew Henry
WR
#37 of 485
Jaylen Lewis
S
#59 of 544
Harper Holloman
EDGE
#85 of 420
K.D. Hutchinson
WR
#103 of 485
La'Vell Wright
RB
#78 of 326
Jaylen Wester
LB
#159 of 583
+26 more
Western Kentucky · 2025 schedule & results9-4Soft slateAverage opponent win rate 44% · 1 AP top-25 opponent on the schedule.
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 23 | #118 | #122 | -9.5 | Sam Houston | W 41–24 147 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| 1 | Aug 30 | #118 | #191 | -27.5 | North Alabama | W 55–6 143 | 2-0 | 1-0 |
| 2 | Sep 6 | #116 | #52 | +7.5 | @Toledo | L 21–45 130 | 2-1 | 1-0 |
| 4 | Sep 20 | #112 | #142 | -7.5 | Nevada | W 31–16 138 | 3-1 | 1-0 |
| 5 | Sep 27 | #116 | #128 | -3.5 | @Missouri State | W 27–22 134 | 4-1 | 2-0 |
| 6 | Oct 3 | #105 | #104 | +2.5 | @Delaware | W 27–24 138 | 5-1 | 3-0 |
| 8 | Oct 15 | #99 | #147 | -10 | Florida International | L 6–25 134 | 5-2 | 3-1 |
| 9 | Oct 21 | #126 | #123 | +4.5 | @Louisiana Tech | W 28–27 155 | 6-2 | 3-1 |
| 10 | Nov 1 | #121 | #203 | -7.5 | New Mexico State | W 35–16 145 | 7-2 | 4-1 |
| 12 | Nov 15 | #119 | #197 | -13.5 | Middle Tennessee | W 42–26 146 | 8-2 | 5-1 |
| 13 | Nov 23 | #108 | #27 | +25.5 | @LSU | L 10–13 144 | 8-3 | 5-1 |
| 14 | Nov 29 | #88 | #94 | -1.5 | @Jacksonville State | L 34–37 129 | 8-4 | 5-2 |
| Bowl Season | ||||||||
| 17 | Dec 23 | #100 | #142 | +3 | Southern Miss (N) | W 27–16 | 9-4 | 5-2 |
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)▼
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23 | Southern Miss | W 27–16 | — | — | — | +0.059 | 30.3% | 174.5% | Most explosive |
| Nov 29 | @Jacksonville State | L 34–37 | 384 | 2 | 28:36 | +0.238 | 52.4% | 88.8% | One-score loss |
| Nov 23 | @LSU | L 10–13 | 152 | 2 | 24:06 | -0.232 | 22.7% | 99.7% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Nov 15 | Middle Tennessee | W 42–26 | 642 | 1 | 33:48 | +0.455 | 56.8% | 124.6% | Best success rate |
| Nov 1 | New Mexico State | W 35–16 | 429 | 2 | 33:46 | +0.015 | 47.6% | 103.5% | |
| Oct 21 | @Louisiana Tech | W 28–27 | 340 | 1 | 31:20 | +0.179 | 37.5% | 142.0% | One-score win |
| Oct 15 | Florida International | L 6–25 | 341 | 3 | 25:22 | +0.022 | 38.1% | 111.8% | |
| Oct 3 | @Delaware | W 27–24 | 338 | 1 | 27:26 | +0.302 | 43.9% | 135.9% | One-score win |
| Sep 27 | @Missouri State | W 27–22 | 476 | 0 | 31:28 | +0.305 | 52.9% | 112.2% | One-score win |
| Sep 20 | Nevada | W 31–16 | 361 | 2 | 27:44 | +0.221 | 49.2% | 103.4% | |
| Sep 6 | @Toledo | L 21–45 | 333 | 2 | 26:35 | -0.090 | 38.2% | 113.0% | Defense's roughest night |
| Aug 30 | North Alabama | W 55–6 | 564 | 0 | 30:11 | +0.541 | 52.9% | 125.0% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Aug 23 | Sam Houston | W 41–24 | 506 | 2 | 32:56 | +0.133 | 41.2% | 139.9% | |
| Season average (13 games) | 406 | 1.5 | +0.165 | 43.4% | 121.1% | ||||
How They Play · 2025
How They Play · 2025Western Kentucky fields a capable pass-first, methodical, ball-control offense behind a strong, gives up the big play defense.
Opponent-adjusted percentiles vs all FBS. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Team identity · competitive snaps only
How Western Kentucky actually scores
53rd percentile quality, 29th percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 86th | 11th |
| Akron | 12th | 89th |
| Alabama | 58th | 17th |
| App State | 35th | 47th |
| Arizona | 64th | 37th |
| Arizona State | 41st | 62nd |
| Arkansas | 90th | 12th |
| Arkansas State | 17th | 66th |
| Army | 57th | 43rd |
| Auburn | 47th | 53rd |
| BYU | 78th | 19th |
| Baylor | 69th | 25th |
| Boise State | 66th | 20th |
| Boston College | 37th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 2nd | 98th |
| Buffalo | 11th | 88th |
| California | 28th | 48th |
| Central Michigan | 52nd | 64th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 16th |
| Clemson | 51st | 48th |
| Coastal Carolina | 17th | 83rd |
| Colorado | 18th | 84th |
| Colorado State | 16th | 83rd |
| Delaware | 38th | 58th |
| Duke | 80th | 14th |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 36th |
| Eastern Michigan | 49th | 42nd |
| Florida | 30th | 67th |
| Florida Atlantic | 62nd | 59th |
| Florida International | 42nd | 50th |
| Florida State | 83rd | 32nd |
| Fresno State | 26th | 73rd |
| Georgia | 81st | 3rd |
| Georgia Southern | 73rd | 21st |
| Georgia State | 36th | 70th |
| Georgia Tech | 84th | 5th |
| Hawai'i | 64th | 41st |
| Houston | 27th | 65th |
| Illinois | 75th | 26th |
| Indiana | 95th | 1st |
| Iowa | 44th | 40th |
| Iowa State | 68th | 22nd |
| Jacksonville State | 54th | 38th |
| James Madison | 65th | 44th |
| Kansas | 85th | 28th |
| Kansas State | 71st | 49th |
| Kennesaw State | 56th | 30th |
| Kent State | 21st | 86th |
| Kentucky | 15th | 85th |
| LSU | 14th | 81st |
| Liberty | 43rd | 56th |
| Louisiana | 19th | 73rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 39th | 61st |
| Louisville | 48th | 64th |
| Marshall | 55th | 39th |
| Maryland | 30th | 74th |
| Memphis | 80th | 24th |
| Miami | 76th | 5th |
| Miami (OH) | 34th | 67th |
| Michigan | 67th | 33rd |
| Michigan State | 27th | 75th |
| Middle Tennessee | 39th | 52nd |
| Minnesota | 29th | 77th |
| Mississippi State | 22nd | 77th |
| Missouri | 61st | 30th |
| Missouri State | 55th | 46th |
| NC State | 86th | 23rd |
| Navy | 94th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 48th | 57th |
| Nevada | 3rd | 97th |
| New Mexico | 58th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 9th | 87th |
| North Carolina | 13th | 89th |
| North Texas | 98th | 7th |
| Northern Illinois | 8th | 92nd |
| Northwestern | 52nd | 36th |
| Notre Dame | 99th | 20th |
| Ohio | 67th | 18th |
| Ohio State | 93rd | 4th |
| Oklahoma | 20th | 80th |
| Oklahoma State | 5th | 95th |
| Old Dominion | 83rd | 45th |
| Ole Miss | 89th | 2nd |
| Oregon | 91st | 10th |
| Oregon State | 2nd | 98th |
| Penn State | 73rd | 33rd |
| Pittsburgh | 60th | 39th |
| Purdue | 25th | 78th |
| Rice | 6th | 94th |
| Rutgers | 70th | 27th |
| SMU | 74th | 42nd |
| Sam Houston | 4th | 96th |
| San Diego State | 24th | 76th |
| San José State | 45th | 69th |
| South Alabama | 36th | 58th |
| South Carolina | 23rd | 86th |
| South Florida | 87th | 23rd |
| Southern Miss | 40th | 55th |
| Stanford | 10th | 90th |
| Syracuse | 5th | 95th |
| TCU | 72nd | 35th |
| Temple | 70th | 34th |
| Tennessee | 96th | 11th |
| Texas | 45th | 55th |
| Texas A&M | 82nd | 14th |
| Texas State | 92nd | 8th |
| Texas Tech | 77th | 31st |
| Toledo | 50th | 61st |
| Troy | 14th | 80th |
| Tulane | 79th | 15th |
| Tulsa | 20th | 70th |
| UAB | 61st | 45th |
| UCF | 33rd | 82nd |
| UCLA | 23rd | 79th |
| UConn | 95th | 13th |
| UL Monroe | 11th | 92nd |
| UNLV | 88th | 9th |
| USC | 98th | 2nd |
| UTEP | 1st | 99th |
| UTSA | 77th | 51st |
| Utah | 97th | 6th |
| Utah State | 46th | 63rd |
| Vanderbilt | 100th | 0th |
| Virginia | 59th | 27th |
| Virginia Tech | 32nd | 71st |
| Wake Forest | 42nd | 72nd |
| Washington | 92nd | 8th |
| Washington State | 33rd | 52nd |
| West Virginia | 7th | 93rd |
| Western Kentucky | 53rd | 29th |
| Western Michigan | 31st | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 0th | 100th |
| Wyoming | 8th | 91st |
Fourth-quarter reliability, corrected
Western Kentucky's 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 71st percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it climbs to the 96th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
Does Western Kentucky hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?
55th percentile success on standard downs, 80th on passing downs — a 25-point gap between the two.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 82nd | 69th |
| Akron | 20th | 36th |
| Alabama | 47th | 76th |
| App State | 41st | 80th |
| Arizona | 54th | 54th |
| Arizona State | 40th | 37th |
| Arkansas | 90th | 97th |
| Arkansas State | 51st | 40th |
| Army | 37th | 44th |
| Auburn | 73rd | 24th |
| Austin Peay | 56th | 13th |
| BYU | 91st | 46th |
| Ball State | 5th | 3rd |
| Baylor | 70th | 77th |
| Boise State | 42nd | 63rd |
| Boston College | 56th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 10th | 17th |
| Bryant | 7th | 2nd |
| Buffalo | 29th | 20th |
| California | 25th | 66th |
| Central Michigan | 57th | 11th |
| Charlotte | 7th | 7th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 65th |
| Clemson | 49th | 34th |
| Coastal Carolina | 16th | 22nd |
| Colorado | 8th | 48th |
| Colorado State | 29th | 35th |
| Delaware | 66th | 31st |
| Duke | 82nd | 63rd |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 91st |
| Eastern Michigan | 46th | 67th |
| Florida | 52nd | 45th |
| Florida Atlantic | 44th | 61st |
| Florida International | 50th | 26th |
| Florida State | 65th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 22nd | 71st |
| Georgia | 95th | 69th |
| Georgia Southern | 64th | 84th |
| Georgia State | 22nd | 75th |
| Georgia Tech | 92nd | 89th |
| Hawai'i | 33rd | 87th |
| Houston | 61st | 29th |
| Idaho | 30th | 78th |
| Idaho State | 93rd | 14th |
| Illinois | 79th | 95th |
| Indiana | 97th | 98th |
| Iowa | 74th | 19th |
| Iowa State | 80th | 58th |
| Jacksonville State | 59th | 56th |
| James Madison | 77th | 52nd |
| Kansas | 99th | 82nd |
| Kansas State | 37th | 59th |
| Kennesaw State | 44th | 67th |
| Kent State | 15th | 5th |
| Kentucky | 62nd | 29th |
| LSU | 18th | 52nd |
| Lafayette | 0th | 12th |
| Liberty | 65th | 53rd |
| Lindenwood | 4th | 1st |
| Long Island University | 24th | 78th |
| Louisiana | 24th | 23rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 41st | 24th |
| Louisville | 84th | 32nd |
| Maine | 3rd | 18th |
| Marshall | 71st | 62nd |
| Maryland | 11th | 86th |
| Massachusetts | 5th | 9th |
| Memphis | 75th | 68th |
| Merrimack | 1st | 83rd |
| Miami | 80th | 64th |
| Miami (OH) | 33rd | 39th |
| Michigan | 73rd | 74th |
| Michigan State | 48th | 39th |
| Middle Tennessee | 69th | 47th |
| Minnesota | 35th | 33rd |
| Mississippi State | 52nd | 35th |
| Missouri | 76th | 50th |
| Missouri State | 32nd | 50th |
| Murray State | 1st | 6th |
| NC State | 58th | 71st |
| Navy | 95th | 72nd |
| Nebraska | 78th | 51st |
| Nevada | 17th | 16th |
| New Mexico | 38th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 16th | 33rd |
| North Carolina | 14th | 30th |
| North Texas | 100th | 97th |
| Northern Illinois | 9th | 5th |
| Northwestern | 48th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 88th | 99th |
| Ohio | 69th | 76th |
| Ohio State | 99th | 99th |
| Oklahoma | 39th | 41st |
| Oklahoma State | 14th | 7th |
| Old Dominion | 72nd | 79th |
| Ole Miss | 83rd | 95th |
| Oregon | 93rd | 55th |
| Oregon State | 54th | 25th |
| Penn State | 76th | 73rd |
| Pittsburgh | 35th | 56th |
| Purdue | 46th | 88th |
| Rice | 20th | 0th |
| Rutgers | 71st | 84th |
| SMU | 50th | 57th |
| Sam Houston | 26th | 4th |
| San Diego State | 84th | 1st |
| San José State | 68th | 70th |
| South Alabama | 53rd | 28th |
| South Carolina | 31st | 8th |
| South Carolina State | 10th | 3rd |
| South Florida | 86th | 46th |
| Southern Miss | 27th | 38th |
| Stanford | 12th | 12th |
| Syracuse | 19th | 10th |
| TCU | 63rd | 82nd |
| Temple | 85th | 22nd |
| Tennessee | 97th | 81st |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 88th | 59th |
| Texas State | 60th | 93rd |
| Texas Tech | 45th | 65th |
| Toledo | 67th | 42nd |
| Troy | 18th | 27th |
| Tulane | 81st | 86th |
| Tulsa | 43rd | 43rd |
| UAB | 34th | 94th |
| UCF | 39th | 20th |
| UCLA | 28th | 48th |
| UConn | 96th | 37th |
| UL Monroe | 13th | 14th |
| UNLV | 78th | 85th |
| USC | 94th | 90th |
| UT Martin | 2nd | 41st |
| UTEP | 3rd | 10th |
| UTSA | 67th | 92nd |
| Utah | 87th | 96th |
| Utah State | 31st | 49th |
| Vanderbilt | 90th | 100th |
| Virginia | 36th | 73rd |
| Virginia Tech | 59th | 21st |
| Wake Forest | 21st | 31st |
| Washington | 98th | 93rd |
| Washington State | 61st | 44th |
| West Virginia | 12th | 18th |
| Western Kentucky | 55th | 80th |
| Western Michigan | 86th | 16th |
| Wisconsin | 6th | 27th |
| Wyoming | 23rd | 15th |
Halftime identity
Western Kentucky by half
1st-half offense ranks 40th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 88th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
Schedule mirage
How much of Western Kentucky's number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.17; 57th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.04. The widest gap came in week 1: 0.34 raw vs. 0.04 adjusted.
Western Kentucky reads strongest in success rate allowed (top 13%) and passing epa allowed (top 27%); the crux lives in explosive plays allowed, where Western Kentucky sits at the 16th percentile.
offense · strengths lead
defense · higher bar = harder to play against
hidden math · special situations
ELITE · 90+STRONG · 70+AVERAGE · 40-70CONCERN · 10-40BOTTOM · <10
Most Similar Programs · Western Kentucky
Most Similar Programs · Western KentuckyReads Like
CharlotteTier 3 · Prestige T2 · Similarly-sized rosters up frontColorado StateTier 3 · Prestige T2 · Similarly-sized rosters up frontEast CarolinaTier 3 · Prestige T2 · Similarly-sized rosters up front
Static-attribute similarity across tier, archetype, conference, and voice. Not a prediction — a calibration.
Home-Field Advantage · Western Kentucky · 2018-present
Strong
65% home win rate vs 49% on the road. margin runs +10.4 better at home. Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium seats 22,113, averaging 68% full (14,937 attendance, 24 games reported).
Home30-16Away25-26
Positional competition · RB room
The carries are split. The job isn’t.
Marvis Parrish and La'Vell Wright split the carries (106/191 vs 85/191) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Marvis Parrish owns the receiving work.
Marvis ParrishLa'Vell Wright
Carries
the baseline -- every row below is tested against this split, not a flat 50/50
Q4, leading (competitive)
shared -- dots touch, this room really is a committee here
Targets
p = 0.002 -- real, not noise
Top-5-carry share
concentration alone -- EPA/carry doesn't corroborate, read with caution
Screened 3 claims, 1 survived, 2 falsified
Positional competition · WR/TE room
The targets are split. The job isn’t.
K.D. Hutchinson (WR) and Noah Meyers (TE) split the targets (65/99 vs 34/99) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Noah Meyers produces in bigger chunks.
K.D. HutchinsonNoah Meyers
Targets
the baseline -- every row below is tested against this split, not a flat 50/50
3rd-down targets
shared -- dots touch, this room really is a committee here
Garbage-time share
shared -- dots touch, this room really is a committee here
Top-5-catch share
concentration and EPA/target agree -- a real boom/bust split
Screened 3 claims, 1 survived, 2 falsified
What changed
Western Kentucky’s play-calling, before and after the change
Offense: co-Drew Hollingshead / Will Friend (2024) → Rick Bowie (2025)
Play-calling barely moved on the change — every rate held within a few points.
1st-down pass rate
Red-zone pass rate
Defense: Tyson Summers (2022–2024) → Da'Von Brown / co-Davis Merritt (2025)
The biggest shift: red-zone pass rate moved down 8 points. The rest held closer to steady.
1st-down pass rate
Red-zone pass rate
Defensive identity · pass zones
What this defense gives up, by zone.
On short passes, Western Kentucky’s defense allows a completion rate below the FBS mean (63.0% vs 65.9% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 198-play sample) — mid-pack, 21 of 133 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball leaderboard here: at the defense level, most teams face well under 30 rich-feed deep targets all season — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess.
Screened 133 claims, 133 survived · 2025 only, in the 399 games with the detailed play-text feed; n=198 short-zone plays faced, raw rate 61.1%
Venue texture
67°F average kickoff temp; 6% of games had measurable precipitation; 6 mph average wind.
Based on 71 home games with weather data.
The CFP Era
12 seasons inside the CFP era, no bids yet — the era the program is still trying to break into.
TRAJECTORY · quality-score line · AP rank dotted · CFP bids marked · coach regimes ribboned
Program Quality
AP Rank (inverted)
CFP Appearance
Western Kentucky's 2014–2025 record is 96-61. The era is still being written; the CFP line is the one the program is arguing for.
All-Time Record
170-158
since 1925 · 55 seasons · .518 win rate
HOME
84-53
AWAY
74-98
NEUTRAL
12-7
1920s
1930s
1940s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
The program, in full — read the essay
Western Kentucky has made a bowl game every single season under Tyson Helton. Seven straight. In Conference USA, in basketball-mad Kentucky, with modest resources and no state spotlight — that kind of consistency is its own argument.
The Hilltoppers are the program the state of Kentucky doesn't look at. Lexington absorbs the football conversation now along with the basketball, and Bowling Green's football team wins eight or nine games annually while the state's attention points elsewhere. That's the defining tension of the Western Kentucky experience — a program with a 2002 FCS national championship, a 12-2 Conference USA title season under Jeff Brohm in 2015, and seven consecutive bowl trips under Helton that somehow qualifies as the state's footnote.
The 2025 season added another line to the ledger: 9-4 overall, a 27-16 New Orleans Bowl comeback win over Southern Miss, and a seventh straight victory over rival Middle Tennessee. Transfer quarterback Maverick McIvor anchored the offense and projects to return in 2026, which is the most concrete reason for optimism in Bowling Green heading into the offseason. Helton's formula — recruit the portal for proven contributors, run a disciplined passing attack, protect ball possession — keeps delivering bowl trips without the recruiting-rank fireworks the sport uses to measure ambition.
The 2026 question is the same one that has hung over the program since the Brohm era ended: can steady become great? The Conference USA title is there to be won — the league has no obvious runaway favorite — and a championship would be the first since 2016. That's the specific ceiling the 2026 schedule will test: whether Helton's version of Western Kentucky can do what Brohm's did, or whether eight wins and a December bowl game is the program's permanent floor and ceiling at once.
How they play
Pass-first, score-efficiently football built on the Brohm-era Air Raid heritage — quick rhythm throws, space creation in the slot, a QB-centered system that Helton has adapted into a more structure-conscious, turnover-aware version. Western Kentucky wins by exploiting the gap between its preparation and opponents who underestimate Conference USA execution. Big Red — the wordless, shapeless crimson mascot — is the cheerful face of a program that wins more than its recruiting ranking predicts.
Steady
Western Kentucky 2016–2025. Holding the line. The 10-year slope (+0.07 rungs / yr) doesn't tilt either way — the program lives at roughly Tier 3.
CFP Era · Western Kentucky
12 seasons on file
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
down middle peak CFP year
Season Standing · 2025 · 9-4
Season Standing · 2025 · 9-4Bowl eligible
Western Kentucky: 6+ wins, bowl access secured. The baseline of a successful FBS year.
R0R1R2R3R4R5R6R7R8R9
Sub-FBSBuildingBowlRankedContenderPlayoff
Conference USA Standing · 2025
3rd in the Conference USA
Western Kentucky is 3rd in the Conference USA at 5-2. 2 teams above — that's the direct path to the title game.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kennesaw State | 6-1 |
| 2 | Jacksonville State | 6-2 |
| 3 | Western Kentucky | 5-2 |
| 4 | Florida International | 5-3 |
| 5 | Missouri State | 4-2 |
| 6 | Delaware | 2-4 |
| 7 | Liberty | 2-4 |
| 8 | Middle Tennessee | 2-6 |
| 9 | New Mexico State | 1-5 |
| 10 | Sam Houston | 1-5 |
Coaching Era · Western Kentucky
Coaching Era · Western KentuckyTyson Helton
Tyson Helton has held the program for 7 seasons — the era is established.
Era Tyson Helton · 2020–presentPrev: Mike Sanford Jr. (2017)OC: co-Bodie Reeder / co-Joe BernardiPrev OC: Rick Bowie (2025)DC: Davis MerrittPrev DC: Da'Von Brown / co-Davis Merritt (2025)
7
years · era
Rituals
Three gameday rituals — the ones outsiders never quite catch.
Jeff Brohm Air Raid Era (2014-2016)
since 2014
Jeff Brohm's 2014-2016 tenure — the most-iconic modern peak — produced the 2015 12-2 + Conference USA championship + Boca Raton Bowl win + 2016 11-3 + Boca Raton Bowl win. The Air Raid offense identity + Brohm's QB development + the consecutive bowl wins reset what Hilltopper fans believed possible. Brohm's 2017 departure to Purdue opened the next cycle.
2002 FCS National Championship
since 2002
Jack Harbaugh's 2002 FCS national championship — culminating in a 34-14 win over McNeese State in the Division I-AA title game — is the program's only national championship and the historical anchor for the 2007 FBS reclassification. Harbaugh family legacy (Jim + John as sons) added national-narrative weight.
Big Red Mascot
since 1979
Big Red — Western Kentucky's amorphous red-furry-blob mascot since 1979 — is one of CFB's most-distinctive (and arguably weirdest) mascot characters. The character has no specific species + the abstract design + the recurring 'what is Big Red exactly?' fan-discussion thread make the mascot uniquely WKU. Big Red has won national mascot competitions multiple times.
Program memory
What this program never forgets
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
The 2002 national championship
Western Kentucky wins the I-AA title under Jack Harbaugh
The 2015 Conference USA title
A 12-2 season and league championship behind one of the nation's best offenses
2025
New Orleans Bowl win
A 27-16 comeback over Southern Miss extends a streak of bowl trips under Tyson Helton
Moment of the Year · Western Kentucky · 2025
Moment of the Year · Western Kentucky · 2025Postseason · Won 27-16 at Southern Miss
Week 17 of 2025. Postseason win — the season-defining moment.
Bowl / Postseason Ledger
Bowl / Postseason LedgerRecent postseason (2014-2025): 8-3
Most recent: 2025 — win 16-27 (away). Last 5 postseason: 4-1.
20252024202320222021
NFL Draft Pipeline
2022–2025
NFL Draft PipelineDeveloping
5 picks last 5 cycles. Pipeline emerging.
5
picks · 0 R1
#65
Malachi Corley
Wide Receiver · 2024 · New York · #25/497 final season
#82
DeAngelo Malone
Outside Linebacker · 2022 · Atlanta · #4/370 final season
#96
Brodric Martin
Defensive Tackle · 2023 · Detroit · #73/278 final season
#169 all-time in draft picksthe talent factory →
Unit lineage
Western Kentucky’s offense and defense, by coordinator
FBS-relative efficiency percentile per season (2014–2025), same population as the Coordinator Mirror board. Dashed vertical lines mark a coordinator change.
Offense2014–2025
2014–2015 · Tyson Helton2016 · co-Tony Levine / co-Brian Brohm2017–2018 · Junior Adams2019 · co-Bryan Ellis2020 · co-Bryan Ellis / co-Ryan Aplin2021 · co-Bryan Ellis / Zach Kittley2022 · co-Ben Arbuckle / co-Josh Crawford2023 · co-Drew Hollingshead2024 · co-Drew Hollingshead / Will Friend2025 · Rick Bowie
Hired for 2026: co-Bodie Reeder / co-Joe Bernardi — not yet reflected in on-field data.
Defense2014–2025
2014–2016 · Nick Holt2017–2019 · Clayton White2020 · Clayton White / co-Maurice Crum Jr.2021 · Maurice Crum Jr.2022–2024 · Tyson Summers2025 · Da'Von Brown / co-Davis Merritt
Hired for 2026: Davis Merritt — not yet reflected in on-field data.
Elite (≥70th pct)AveragePoor (≤30th pct)
Chronicle Visuals
A heavy-turnover 2025: 33% returning (below average), with the offense the biggest question.
The portal upgraded the IOL room but opened a hole at CB.
1 player drafted in 2025; the reload runs through the portal and recruiting.
Western Kentucky converts recruit talent into draft picks better than its class rank suggests.
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