Nevada routs Western Kentucky 49-14

Team pages: Western Kentucky · Nevada

Western Kentucky0-114
Nevada1-049Final
Sat, Sep 5 · Mackay Stadium, Reno, Nev. · Crowd 19,404CBS Sports Network

Nevada routed Western Kentucky 49-14.

We had Western Kentucky favored. Nevada won.

Next: Western Kentucky lost to Georgia 70-20, Sat Sep 12

Next: Nevada lost to Montana State 20-7, Sat Sep 12

How it swung

The turning point: Kelley 72-yd TD run, Nevada goes ahead 7-0 (Q1, 14:25). Nevada went from 54% to 76% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Nevada a 13% chance, and the closing betting line (Nevada was a 1.5-point underdog) put it at 45%.

FinalNevada 49-14 Western KentuckyNevada wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q490% at halfNevadaWon49-1412+22+16Scores
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q490% at halfNevadaWon49-1412Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q410% at halfNevadaLowest 0%Lost14-4912−22−16Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q410% at halfNevadaLowest 0%Lost14-4912Scores

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q1 14:25Kelley 72-yd TD run, Nevada goes ahead 7-0Nevada 54% → 76% (+22)
  2. 2Q2 2:21Cheers 20-yd TD run, Nevada leads 21-7Nevada 73% → 89% (+16)

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q1 14:25Kelley 72-yd TD run, Nevada goes ahead 7-0Western Kentucky 46% → 24% (−22)
  2. 2Q2 2:21Cheers 20-yd TD run, Nevada leads 21-7Western Kentucky 27% → 11% (−16)
Nevada’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Western Kentucky -1.5), at 54% for Nevada (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Nevada’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

  1. Q2, 4:58Jones intercepted by Brown at the WKU46Q2, 4:58 · Nevada 14, Western Kentucky 7▼4%Nevada’s chance to win, 75% to 71%▼4%Nevada’s chance to win, 75% to 71%Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
  2. Q2, 2:21Cheers 20-yd TD runNevada leads 21-7Q2, 2:21 · Nevada 21, Western Kentucky 7▲16%Nevada’s chance to win, 73% to 89%▲16%Nevada’s chance to win, 73% to 89%Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
  3. Q3, 11:01Jones 32-yd TD pass to CheersNevada leads 28-7Q3, 11:01 · Nevada 28, Western Kentucky 7▲3%Nevada’s chance to win, 95% to 98%▲3%Nevada’s chance to win, 95% to 98%Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
  4. Q4, 6:07Jackson 1-yd TD runNevada leads 49-7Q4, 6:07 · Nevada 49, Western Kentucky 749-7score after the play49-7score after the playWatch from this playCBS Sports College Football

Every drive

Nevada scored on 7 of its 12 drives; Western Kentucky on 2 of its 12.

Nevada’s drives are teal, Western Kentucky’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Nevada: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownWestern Kentucky: Punt, from 75 yards out to 44PuntNevada: Punt, from 95 yards out to 48PuntWestern Kentucky: Punt, from 83 yards out to 65PuntNevada: Touchdown, from 88 yards out to 0TouchdownWestern Kentucky: Punt, from 82 yards out to 58PuntQ2Nevada: Punt, from 50 yards out to 52PuntWestern Kentucky: Touchdown, from 80 yards out to 0TouchdownNevada: Interception, from 64 yards out to 64InterceptionWestern Kentucky: Punt, from 46 yards out to 42PuntNevada: Touchdown, from 96 yards out to 0TouchdownWestern Kentucky: End of half, from 75 yards out to 49End of halfQ3Western Kentucky: Punt, from 75 yards out to 67PuntNevada: Touchdown, from 57 yards out to 0TouchdownWestern Kentucky: Fumble, from 75 yards out to 14FumbleNevada: Punt, from 86 yards out to 79PuntWestern Kentucky: Punt, from 82 yards out to 82PuntNevada: Touchdown, from 55 yards out to 0TouchdownWestern Kentucky: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 43DownsNevada: Touchdown, from 57 yards out to 0TouchdownQ4Western Kentucky: Fumble, from 90 yards out to 92FumbleNevada: Touchdown, from 8 yards out to 0TouchdownWestern Kentucky: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownNevada: End of game, from 75 yards out to 77End of game

What it cost

Western Kentucky’s chance to make the playoff fell from 3% to 1%.

Make the playoff

Western Kentucky · lost3% → ▼1%
Nevada · won0% → 0%

Win the conference

Western Kentucky · lost31% → ▼30%31%▼ 30%
Nevada · won2% → 2%

Before the game (September 5, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

Nevada 49, Western Kentucky 14

Nevada covered +1.5 by 36.5. The total, 63, went over 51.5.

Western KentuckyNevadaTotal yardsWestern Kentucky 367Nevada 486367486Passing yardsWestern Kentucky 203Nevada 163203163Rushing yardsWestern Kentucky 164Nevada 323164323First downsWestern Kentucky 23Nevada 202320TurnoversWestern Kentucky 2Nevada 121Time of possessionWestern Kentucky 32:33Nevada 27:2732:3327:27
Team totalsWestern KentuckyNevada
Total yards367486
Passing24 of 40, 203 yds9 of 16, 163 yds
Rushing42 for 164 yds42 for 323 yds
First downs2320
Third down6 of 175 of 10
Fourth down1 of 22 of 2
Turnovers21
Penalties6 for 59 yds4 for 40 yds
Time of possession32:3327:27

Western Kentucky leaders

  • Passing Rodney Tisdale Jr. 24 of 40, 203 yds
  • Rushing Ajay Allen 21 for 102 yds, 2 TD; Le'Kamren Meadows 8 for 43 yds
  • Receiving Cameron Flowers 7 for 60 yds; Jonathan Stafford Jr. 5 for 48 yds

Nevada leaders

  • Passing Carter Jones 9 of 15, 163 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing Dominic Kelley 11 for 152 yds, 2 TD; Herschel Turner 11 for 52 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Gary Givens III 2 for 83 yds; Donnie Cheers 1 for 32 yds, 1 TD

No rain, gusts to 32 mph

64° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 15 mph from the west-northwest, mostly at an angle to the field, gusts to 32

A 32 mph gust is stronger than the peak gust in 96% of games since 2018.

Every game's peak, with this game markedtypical game 16 mphThis game: 32 mph060 mph
Every game's peak, with this game markedtypical game 16 mphThis game: 32 mph060 mph

Each gray tick is one game. The black line is the typical game.

The usual here around this date is 75°, with about 7 in 10 games between 64° and 85°.

September game-day temperatures at Mackay Stadium

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Nevada favoredWestern Kentucky favored100%Win chanceNevadaRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mph32 mph gust
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Nevada favoredWestern Kentucky favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour204032 mph gust

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 11:48 left7:45 p.m.
Western Kentucky 0, Nevada 7 · Nevada 71% to win
no rain · wind 20 mph from the west, mostly at an angle to the field, gusts to 32 · 65°
Tisdale 0-yd pass to Howard

Jump to

The same game in two conditions

Wind 15 mph or moreLighter wind
Runs and passes5716
Share that were passes46%38%
Yards per play8.06.2
Turnovers10
The numbers are small: read it as a description, not a result.
How this is countedWind means an 11-minute average of 15 mph or more at the airport. Only plays while the score was within two touchdowns, so a blowout does not skew it. Same two teams in both columns, so team strength is held constant. Game situation still is not.
Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Reno - Tahoe airport, 5.0 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games · 2025 season

Western Kentucky · 9-4

Rated 42nd in our preseason ratings.

W 27-16 @ Southern Miss #120 of 667

won by 11 as a 2.5-point underdog

Western Kentucky won 27-16 vs Southern Miss. Chance to win started at 35%, low 12%, high 98%.

L 34-37 @ Jacksonville State #107 of 667

lost by 3 as a 1.5-point favorite

Western Kentucky lost 34-37 at Jacksonville State. Chance to win started at 44%, low under 1%, high 86%.

L 10-13 @ LSUTop 25 #29 of 667

lost by 3 as a 25.5-point underdog

Western Kentucky lost 10-13 at LSU. Chance to win started at 4%, low under 1%, high 20%.

W 42-26 vs Middle Tennessee #206 of 667

won by 16 as a 13.5-point favorite

W 35-16 vs New Mexico State #187 of 667

won by 19 as a 7.5-point favorite

Western Kentucky won 35-16 vs New Mexico State. Chance to win started at 76%, low 53%, high better than 99%.

W 28-27 @ Louisiana Tech #119 of 667

won by 1 as a 4.5-point underdog

Western Kentucky won 28-27 at Louisiana Tech. Chance to win started at 26%, low 4%, high better than 99%.

L 6-25 vs Florida International #120 of 667

lost by 19 as a 9.5-point favorite

Western Kentucky lost 6-25 vs Florida International. Chance to win started at 78%, low under 1%, high 81%.

W 27-24 @ Delaware #116 of 667

won by 3 as a 2.5-point underdog

Western Kentucky won 27-24 at Delaware. Chance to win started at 37%, low 16%, high better than 99%.

W 27-22 @ Missouri State #133 of 667

won by 5 as a 3.5-point favorite

Western Kentucky won 27-22 at Missouri State. Chance to win started at 54%, low 35%, high 94%.

W 31-16 vs Nevada #155 of 667

won by 15 as a 7.5-point favorite

Western Kentucky won 31-16 vs Nevada. Chance to win started at 77%, low 37%, high better than 99%.

L 21-45 @ Toledo #66 of 667

lost by 24 as a 7.5-point underdog

Western Kentucky lost 21-45 at Toledo. Chance to win started at 24%, low under 1%, high 24%.

W 55-6 vs North Alabama #209 of 667

won by 49 as a 27.5-point favorite

Western Kentucky won 55-6 vs North Alabama. Chance to win started at 97%, low 96%, high better than 99%.

W 41-24 vs Sam Houston #130 of 667

won by 17 as a 10.5-point favorite

Western Kentucky won 41-24 vs Sam Houston. Chance to win started at 84%, low 61%, high better than 99%.

Last three games · 2025 season

Nevada · 3-9

Rated 229th in our preseason ratings.

L 17-42 vs UNLV #54 of 667

lost by 25 as a 7.5-point underdog

Nevada lost 17-42 vs UNLV. Chance to win started at 35%, low under 1%, high 35%.

W 13-7 @ Wyoming #155 of 667

won by 6 as a 6.5-point underdog

Nevada won 13-7 at Wyoming. Chance to win started at 25%, low 20%, high better than 99%.

W 55-10 vs San José State #150 of 667

won by 45 as a 9.5-point underdog

Nevada won 55-10 vs San José State. Chance to win started at 31%, low 25%, high better than 99%.

L 14-51 @ Utah State #107 of 667

lost by 37 as a 9.5-point underdog

Nevada lost 14-51 at Utah State. Chance to win started at 19%, low under 1%, high 21%.

L 3-24 vs Boise StateTop 25 #36 of 667

lost by 21 as a 20.5-point underdog

Nevada lost 3-24 vs Boise State. Chance to win started at 13%, low under 1%, high 22%.

L 22-24 @ New Mexico #115 of 667

lost by 2 as a 14.5-point underdog

Nevada lost 22-24 at New Mexico. Chance to win started at 12%, low under 1%, high 29%.

L 10-44 vs San Diego State #63 of 667

lost by 34 as a 6.5-point underdog

Nevada lost 10-44 vs San Diego State. Chance to win started at 40%, low under 1%, high 40%.

L 17-20 @ Fresno State #88 of 667

lost by 3 as a 13.5-point underdog

Nevada lost 17-20 at Fresno State. Chance to win started at 12%, low under 1%, high 31%.

L 16-31 @ Western Kentucky #96 of 667

lost by 15 as a 7.5-point underdog

Nevada lost 16-31 at Western Kentucky. Chance to win started at 23%, low under 1%, high 63%.

L 13-14 vs Middle Tennessee #182 of 667

lost by 1 as a 9.5-point favorite

Nevada lost 13-14 vs Middle Tennessee. Chance to win started at 81%, low under 1%, high 98%.

W 20-17 vs Sacramento State #117 of 667

won by 3 as a 9.5-point favorite

Nevada won 20-17 vs Sacramento State. Chance to win started at 77%, low 31%, high 99%.

L 11-46 @ Penn StateTop 25 #7 of 667

lost by 35 as a 43.5-point underdog

Nevada lost 11-46 at Penn State. Chance to win started at under 1%, low under 1%, high 1%.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Nevada’s rushing EPA against Western Kentucky, 70 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

  1. Nevada’s explosive plays against Western Kentucky’s defense

    67 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Nevada offense, 78th percentile · Western Kentucky defense, 11th

  2. Nevada’s rushing EPA against Western Kentucky’s defense

    70 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Nevada offense, 74th percentile · Western Kentucky defense, 4th

  3. Western Kentucky’s success rate against Nevada’s defense

    56 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Western Kentucky offense, 7th percentile · Nevada defense, 63rd

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

Western KentuckyNevada
EPA/play, offense
Western Kentucky…Nevada · 32
EPA/play, defense
Western Kentucky · 29Nevada · 32
Success rate, offense
Western Kentucky · 7Nevada · 26
Success rate, defense
Western Kentucky · 57Nevada · 63
Explosive-play rate, offense
Western Kentucky · 58Nevada · 78
Explosive-play rate, defense
Western Kentucky · 11Nevada · 43
Rush EPA, offense
Western Kentucky…Nevada · 74
Rush EPA, defense
Western Kentucky · 4Nevada · 19
Pass EPA, offense
Western Kentucky · 19Nevada · 18
Pass EPA, defense
Western Kentucky · 68Nevada · 39

The series

Western Kentucky leads the series 1-0

1 meeting since 2025 · Western Kentucky won the last meeting

  • 2025Western Kentucky 31-16Nevada lost 16-31 at Western Kentucky. Chance to win started at 23%, low under 1%, high 63%.

Each line is Nevada’s chance to win through that meeting.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Western Kentucky fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (99th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.

  • Model · 13%
  • Line · 45%
  • Nevada fans · 93rd
  • Western Kentucky fans · 99th

Western Kentucky favored by 1.5 · Total 51.5

How games like this usually go

Western Kentucky by 1.5, on the usual path until Q1 14:44

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 252 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 3 points toward Nevada.

opened +4.5now +1.5

The total fell 2 points.

opened 53.5now 51.5

Spread: +4.5 → +1.5 · Total: 53.5 → 51.5

The books’ cut: 4.8%, the margin built into the odds

Weather at kickoff

Mild and dry. Feels like 62° at kickoff.

Western Kentucky at Nevada · Saturday, Sept. 5, 2026 · Mackay Stadium, Reno

  • 62°feels like at kickoff
  • Dryno rain at kickoff
  • 94weather score, Comfortable

At kickoff, Sept. 5, 2026.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Kickoff times that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 3 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game is ringed. At Mackay Stadium that day, a 12:30 pm kickoff would have scored 92, against 94 at 7:30 pm.

  • 12:30 pm: 92, Comfortable
  • 6:30 pm: 94, Comfortable
  • 7:30 pm: 94, Comfortable (this game)

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

At kickoff, Sept. 5, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.

Home field

Nevada is worth +3.8 points (±4.1) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 42nd percentile.

47% at home, 33% on the road against FBS opponents (20-23 home, 16-33 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +0.9 at home vs. away over 99 games — inside the ±6.4 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. 4,615 ft of altitude — real, and smaller than the folklore: high venues run a point or two better against the number, noisily. The visitors travel about 1,808 miles to get here.

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