Southern Miss7-64Blake Anderson begins his tenure at Southern Miss with a 7-6 record and a program identity rooted in historic Mississippi football, though the bottom-tier power rating signals a rebuild ahead.
Southern Miss is where Brett Favre learned to throw it — a Hattiesburg program that once strung together 21 straight winning seasons and now fights to remember it's a place that wins.
Eagle fans are tired of being filed under forgotten — the program that developed an NFL Hall of Famer and won for two straight decades, now treated like it never mattered. They'll tell you Southern Mi…
Approaching
30 days
until kickoff · vs Alcorn State · Sat Sep 5 · 21:00 UTC
Southern Miss is the Sun Belt program whose 1988-2010 consecutive-winning-seasons streak + Brett Favre 1987-1990 + The Rock M.M. Roberts Stadium define what historic-Mississippi-football looks like.
The team enters the season with a moderate level of continuity and a recruiting rank of #108, while also experiencing significant transfer activity.
Seymour D'Campus is patient.
the open questionis the portal class enough to move the needle?
Ethan Hampton arrives as Southern Miss's answer to a 7-6 record and Charles Huff's first full roster rebuild, with 52 portal additions solving nothing until the QB room is settled.
Blake Anderson took over as Southern Miss's head coach, replacing Charles Huff.
Blake Anderson begins his tenure at Southern Miss with a 7-6 record and a program identity rooted in historic Mississippi football, though the bottom-tier power rating signals a rebuild ahead.
Elijah Metcalf is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks, and he catches those deep shots at a plus rate.
Elijah Metcalf is a legitimate money-down target -- his 3rd-down conversion rate ranks among the position's best, and his per-target value holds up in that spot too.
Bralon Brown is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
Carl Chester is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
Carl Chester: a garbage time merchant signal screened this season.
Jaylin Carter is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
Micah Davis is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
Tychaun Chapman is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
Southern Miss: coordinator change reshaping a unit.
Charles Huff, who led Marshall before taking over Southern Miss's third head-coaching change in five years, inherits a 7-6 roster with 52% production returning.
Huff’s top-12 portal class targets WR, CB, and IOL — positions that define modern Mississippi football — while replacing Kinsler and Fuavai after a 7-6 debut season.
Charles Huff begins his tenure at Southern Miss with a 7-6 record, signaling a shift as the program seeks to redefine its identity beyond its historic Sun Belt legacy.
Top 3 commits
Among the stronger offseasons on record for this program
84th percentile among FBS programs
Market outlook
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-08-06
Southern Miss · Next-Season Outcome Band
Final-season-aware projection: floor / base / ceiling include conference title and CFP games where the model supports them, so a ceiling can exceed a 12-game regular season.
Southern Miss signed a top-23 transfer-portal class — 52 additions headlined by Braylon Braxton (QB) from Marshall and Jacobe Robinson (QB) from Boston College. It is tied for the largest transfer-portal haul in FBS this cycle (52 additions). The portal window is closed. Whether this class contributes reveals itself in August, not in rankings. Attention has moved on; what's left is the competition itself.
The 'portal class fills the gaps' believers -- upgrades at real positions of need.
The 'portal is a gamble' counter -- departure losses and the 'plug-and-play doesn't work' read.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
Only 1 of 33 board posts mention it — below our floor to call a community stance. Shown as texture, not a verdict.
The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.
Southern Miss: coordinator change reshaping a unit.
The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.
The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
Only 7 of 33 board posts mention it — below our floor to call a community stance. Shown as texture, not a verdict.
The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.
Recent Form · last 10 games
One of five. The film room is busy this week.
Opens Sep 5
vs Alcorn State · at home
✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
MS leads the 2026 class with 8 commits. National footprint reaching 13 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
88 signees across 13 states, 2023-2026. MS leads the pull.
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
4 games with TV coverage: 3 ESPN, 1 streaming
Kickoff windows: 2 noon, 1 afternoon, 1 primetime
Recovering 71% of the fumbles they've forced — running hot vs. the ~49% league rate.
5 of 7 forced fumbles recovered; 3 of 7 own fumbles recovered themselves, 2025 only.
Converting 28% of pass disruptions into takeaways — well above the ~19% league rate.
21 interceptions of 75 disrupted passes (54 deflected, 21 intercepted), 2025 only.
Winning the penalty battle: 97 penalties committed vs. 109 drawn on opponents, a 134-yard edge.
782 penalty yards committed vs. 916 drawn on opponents, 2025 season total.
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Fanbase Signals
Position = mood · width = volume · color = the kind of feeling
What little we hear
Only 3 cohort(s) cleared the signal floor this week, so we won’t stage a split we can’t back. Here’s the honest read:
How Southern Miss fans actually talk real · top-upvoted
The crowd’s loudest take by upvotes — read for mood, not as a side. The cohort read is the measured part.
What this fanbase keeps coming back to our read · topic model
Topics are model-labeled from Reddit — a rough signal of what this fanbase is circling right now.
~ our readNot enough Southern Miss chatter this week to read the room.
We read 40 Southern Miss posts this week — not enough to call the room. Check back during the season.
Five Lenses
What people are saying right now
Fanbase Health Index · Southern Miss · high confidence
FBS rankings · 2025 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pocket Passer · +0.18 EPA/play | 1 | 12 | 254 / 400 | 63.5 | 3053 #34 FBS | 7.6 | 24 #24 FBS | 8 | 143.4 | 49.2 | 7.3 | 4.5 | |
Yards by week → Pocket PasserBalanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 97 of 183 QBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / attempt7.6 55th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts INT rate2.0% 68th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like View Braylon Braxton's full player page | |||||||||||||
| +0.43 EPA/play | 18 | 4 | 34 / 52 | 65.4 | 406 | 7.8 | 2 | 3 | 132.1 | 52.5 | 5.8 | 1.9 | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Stuff% | 10+% | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Back · +0.11 EPA/play | — | 11 | 156 | 695 | 4.5 | 8 | 25 | 15.4 | 14.3 | 16.7 | 11.1 | 5.9% (24/404) | |
Yards by week → Balanced BackPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 186 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / carry4.3 bottom 20th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / reception4.3 bottom 16th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jeffery Pittman's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Balanced Back · -0.13 EPA/play | 5 | 13 | 82 | 325 | 4.0 | 4 | 17 | 7.5 | 8.3 | 15.8 | 7.9 | 4.7% (19/404) | |
Yards by week → Balanced BackPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 186 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / carry3.8 bottom 9th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Rush TD rate4.9% 59th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Matt Jones's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Satellite Back · +0.04 EPA/play | 14 | 11 | 62 | 304 | 4.9 | 1 | 24 | 6.8 | 9.7 | 12.9 | 16.1 | 4.5% (18/404) | |
Yards by week → Satellite BackDeployed as a receiver as much as a runner. Value is in space, not between the tackles. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 50 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Receiving share17.3% 81th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Rush TD rate1.6% bottom 16th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Robert Briggs's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slot Technician · +0.39 EPA/play | 9 | 13 | 54 | 683 | 12.6 | 2 | 76 | 10.4 | 9.4 | 19.1% (77/404) | |
Yards by week → Slot Technician· Boom-or-bustRuns precise routes in tight quarters. Volume player who keeps chains moving. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 97 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Reception volume54 85th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate3.7% bottom 21th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like our readBounce-Back: his CFB Index score shows a real arc: 80th percentile among FBS WRs, fell to 20th, now back up to 79th | |||||||||||
| Deep Threat · +0.50 EPA/play | 7 | 12 | 30 | 550 | 18.3 | 6 #62 FBS | 52 | 9.7 | 6.6 | 13.1% (53/404) | |
Yards by week → Deep ThreatStretches the field vertically. Every snap is a potential big play. The rare part: he takes the top off a defense — and he finds the end zone, too 100 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception19.8 96th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate20.0% 97th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions — the part the label misses Trait fingerprint Plays like View Carl Chester's full player page | |||||||||||
| Deep Threat · +0.58 EPA/play | 2 | 11 | 24 | 444 | 18.5 | 3 | 50 | 6.8 | 6.6 | 7.4% (30/404) | |
Yards by week → Deep ThreatStretches the field vertically. Every snap is a potential big play. 100 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception19.0 94th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate12.5% 74th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Tychaun Chapman's full player page | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.27 EPA/play | 6 | 12 | 31 | 429 | 13.8 | 5 | 98 | 4.4 | 7.6 | 11.1% (45/404) | |
Yards by week → Possession Receiver· Boom-or-bustReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine The most common profile in its group this season — 332 of 558 classified this way. Played in 12 of 21 games this season · senior our readBounce-Back: his CFB Index score shows a real arc: 75th percentile among FBS WRs, fell to 0th, now back up to 50th | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.43 EPA/play | 8 | 12 | 30 | 353 | 11.8 | 2 | 40 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 11.9% (48/404) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. The most common profile in its group this season — 332 of 558 classified this way. Played in 12 of 21 games this season · senior View Bralon Brown's full player page | |||||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.44 EPA/play | 88 | 10 | 19 | 228 | 12 | 3 | 34 | 3.9 | 6.4 | 6.7% (27/404) | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. The most common profile in its group this season — 177 of 223 classified this way. Played in 10 of 21 games this season · senior View Kyirin Heath's full player page | |||||||||||
| Move TE · +0.63 EPA/play | 84 | 9 | 15 | 183 | 12.2 | 2 | 30 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 4.5% (18/404) | |
Yards by week → Move TELined up out wide as often as inline. Creates mismatches downfield. 34 of 223 TEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception15.2 89th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Reception volume15 bottom 28th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Kadinn Morris's full player page | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · -0.01 EPA/play | 24 | 10 | 21 | 137 | 6.5 | 0 | 14 | 6.9 | 9.7 | 5.9% (24/404) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception6.7 bottom 4th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)-0.0 bottom 3th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jaylin Carter's full player page | |||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 14 | 13 | 69 | 19 | 12 #51 FBS | 7.5 #34 FBS | 10 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate17.4% 61th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View J'Mond Tapp's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 36 | 13 | 57 | 15 | 3 | 0.5 | 4 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. The most common profile in its group this season — 388 of 809 classified this way. Played in 13 of 21 games this season · senior · 3-star, 2022 class View Brodarius Lewis's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 16 | 11 | 32 | 14 | 4.5 | 3 | 2 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 388 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate14.1% bottom 48th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Jameer Lewis's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 98 | 10 | 27 | 7 | 2 | 0.5 | 1 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 388 of 809 classified this way. Played in 10 of 21 games this season · junior View Jaden Mckinney's full player page | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 7 | 10 | 26 | 4 | 1.5 | 0 | 1 |
Nose AnchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 152 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt View Isaiah Gibson Sr.'s full player pageWeight320 lb 90th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 9 | 7 | 21 | 6 | 2 | 0.5 | 2 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 388 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate9.5% bottom 30th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Jabari Ishmael's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 5 | 10 | 21 | 8 | 5.5 | 3 | 6 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate26.2% 89th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View JJ Hawkins's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 95 | 7 | 16 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 | 1 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 388 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate9.4% bottom 29th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Mason Clinton's full player page | |||||||
| 37 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| 90 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Linebacker | 35 | 13 | 132 | 49 | 83 | 9.5 | 3.5 | 2 | 1 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. 362 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume132 100th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles PD rate1.5% bottom 35th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like our readBreakout: his CFB Index score now sits at the 95th percentile among FBS LBs, up from the 53rd | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 17 | 12 | 106 | 30 | 76 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. 362 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume106 98th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate5.7% bottom 30th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Michael Montgomery's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 53 | 12 | 50 | 19 | 31 | 1.5 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 362 of 660 classified this way. Played in 12 of 21 games this season · senior our readAscending: his CFB Index score climbed from the 6th percentile to the 28th among FBS LBs | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 13 | 13 | 44 | 17 | 27 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. The most common profile in its group this season — 362 of 660 classified this way. Played in 13 of 21 games this season · sophomore View Mathis Haygood's full player page | |||||||||
| Thumper | 30 | 12 | 37 | 16 | 21 | 11.5 #62 FBS | 4.5 | 0 | 0 |
ThumperDownhill striker who fills the run lane and blitzes off the edge. 97 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate31.1% 100th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Sack rate12.2% 97th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like our readUnranked recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 33 | 8 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 362 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume15 bottom 10th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles PD rate0.0% bottom 18th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Avery Sledge's full player page | |||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Box Safety | 22 | 13 | 91 | 4 | 2 | 4.5 | 0 |
Box Safety· Takeaway threatLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. the kind of DB who takes it back the other way Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. 166 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume91 99th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Corey Myrick's full player page | |||||||
| Rover | 3 | 13 | 76 | 7 | 3 #56 FBS | 3.5 | 1 |
Rover· Takeaway threatHits like a linebacker and still takes the ball away. the kind of DB who takes it back the other way Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. 83 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate9.2% 56th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like our readBreakout: his CFB Index score went from the 43rd percentile among FBS Ss to the 96th | |||||||
| Perimeter Tackler | 1 | 13 | 61 | 10 #20 FBS | 5 #6 FBS | 1 | 0 |
Perimeter TacklerTargeted often and asked to tackle in space on the perimeter. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 42 of 270 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume61 99th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Josh Moten's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 41 | 13 | 47 | 2 | 3 #56 FBS | 0.5 | 0 |
Hybrid Nickel· Takeaway threatMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. the kind of DB who takes it back the other way Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 419 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate4.3% bottom 31th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score climbed from the 35th percentile to the 68th among FBS Ss | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 24 | 8 | 34 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 419 of 801 classified this way. Played in 8 of 21 games this season · senior View Josh Battle's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 6 | 9 | 27 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 419 of 801 classified this way. Played in 9 of 21 games this season · junior · 3-star, 2025 class View Dylan King's full player page | |||||||
| Ball Hawk | 23 | 12 | 27 | 8 #45 FBS | 2 | 0.5 | 0 |
Ball HawkReads the quarterback's eyes and takes the ball away. 44 of 270 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate29.6% 95th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readUnranked recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile | |||||||
| Ball Hawk | 11 | 11 | 20 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Ball HawkReads the quarterback's eyes and takes the ball away. 44 of 270 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate30.0% 96th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Jonathan Pennix's full player page | |||||||
| 12 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 19 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 18 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 40 | 11 | 9/14 | 64.3 | 32/32 | 59 | 52 |
| 96 | 13 | 5/8 | 62.5 | 14/14 | 29 | 43 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Possession Receiver · +0.27 EPA/play | 6 | 12 | 13 | 271 | 20.8 | 0 | 31 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slot Technician · +0.39 EPA/play | 9 | 13 | 10 | 93 | 9.3 | 0 | 20 |
| Possession Receiver · +0.27 EPA/play | 6 | 12 | 6 | 64 | 10.7 | 0 | 33 |
2025 stat leaders
finalRoster
2025+26 more
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 30 | #244 | #98 | +14.5 | Mississippi State | L 17–34 153 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 6 | #223 | #129 | -13.5 | Jackson State | W 38–20 138 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 13 | #218 | #135 | +2.5 | App State | W 38–22 146 | 2-1 | 1-0 |
| 4 | Sep 20 | #193 | #130 | +3.5 | @Louisiana Tech | L 20–30 141 | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| 5 | Sep 27 | #178 | #59 | -5.5 | Jacksonville State | W 42–25 150 | 3-2 | 1-1 |
| 7 | Oct 10 | #138 | #97 | -3 | @Georgia Southern | W 38–35 153 | 4-2 | 2-1 |
| 8 | Oct 18 | #127 | #94 | -4.5 | @Louisiana | W 22–10 134 | 5-2 | 3-1 |
| 9 | Oct 25 | #115 | #150 | -14 | UL Monroe | W 49–21 127 | 6-2 | 4-1 |
| 11 | Nov 8 | #108 | #115 | -6.5 | @Arkansas State | W 27–21 164 | 7-2 | 5-1 |
| 12 | Nov 15 | #90 | #75 | -3.5 | Texas State | L 14–41 142 | 7-3 | 5-1 |
| 13 | Nov 22 | #126 | #122 | -2.5 | @South Alabama | L 35–42 153 | 7-4 | 5-2 |
| 14 | Nov 29 | #125 | #123 | -7 | Troy | L 18–28 139 | 7-5 | 5-3 |
| Bowl Season | ||||||||
| 17 | Dec 23 | #142 | #100 | -3 | Western Kentucky (N) | L 16–27 | 7-6 | 5-3 |
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23 | Western Kentucky | L 16–27 | — | — | — | +0.052 | 31.8% | 137.2% | |
| Nov 29 | Troy | L 18–28 | 304 | 1 | 27:30 | +0.124 | 36.4% | 134.9% | |
| Nov 22 | @South Alabama | L 35–42 | 441 | 1 | 22:43 | +0.204 | 33.8% | 165.3% | Most explosive |
| Nov 15 | Texas State | L 14–41 | 391 | 3 | 27:56 | -0.028 | 44.0% | 103.8% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Nov 8 | @Arkansas State | W 27–21 | 528 | 2 | 29:45 | +0.243 | 44.2% | 124.3% | One-score win |
| Oct 25 | UL Monroe | W 49–21 | 445 | 0 | 25:03 | +0.395 | 47.6% | 149.1% | Blowout win |
| Oct 18 | @Louisiana | W 22–10 | 370 | 2 | 24:29 | +0.059 | 28.2% | 129.6% | |
| Oct 10 | @Georgia Southern | W 38–35 | 421 | 1 | 30:57 | +0.229 | 36.8% | 143.6% | One-score win |
| Sep 27 | Jacksonville State | W 42–25 | 379 | 1 | 29:02 | +0.251 | 50.0% | 101.5% | Best success rate |
| Sep 20 | @Louisiana Tech | L 20–30 | 514 | 1 | 32:36 | +0.050 | 35.4% | 163.1% | |
| Sep 13 | App State | W 38–22 | 389 | 1 | 23:24 | +0.416 | 50.0% | 134.5% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 6 | Jackson State | W 38–20 | 363 | 0 | 28:45 | +0.145 | 43.9% | 117.7% | |
| Aug 30 | Mississippi State | L 17–34 | 301 | 1 | 29:39 | +0.048 | 31.9% | 145.4% | |
| Season average (13 games) | 404 | 1.2 | +0.168 | 39.5% | 134.6% | ||||
Southern Miss fields a capable explosive, big-play offense behind a solid defense.
Opponent-adjusted percentiles vs all FBS. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Team identity · competitive snaps only
40th percentile quality, 55th percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 86th | 11th |
| Akron | 12th | 89th |
| Alabama | 58th | 17th |
| App State | 35th | 47th |
| Arizona | 64th | 37th |
| Arizona State | 41st | 62nd |
| Arkansas | 90th | 12th |
| Arkansas State | 17th | 66th |
| Army | 57th | 43rd |
| Auburn | 47th | 53rd |
| BYU | 78th | 19th |
| Baylor | 69th | 25th |
| Boise State | 66th | 20th |
| Boston College | 37th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 2nd | 98th |
| Buffalo | 11th | 88th |
| California | 28th | 48th |
| Central Michigan | 52nd | 64th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 16th |
| Clemson | 51st | 48th |
| Coastal Carolina | 17th | 83rd |
| Colorado | 18th | 84th |
| Colorado State | 16th | 83rd |
| Delaware | 38th | 58th |
| Duke | 80th | 14th |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 36th |
| Eastern Michigan | 49th | 42nd |
| Florida | 30th | 67th |
| Florida Atlantic | 62nd | 59th |
| Florida International | 42nd | 50th |
| Florida State | 83rd | 32nd |
| Fresno State | 26th | 73rd |
| Georgia | 81st | 3rd |
| Georgia Southern | 73rd | 21st |
| Georgia State | 36th | 70th |
| Georgia Tech | 84th | 5th |
| Hawai'i | 64th | 41st |
| Houston | 27th | 65th |
| Illinois | 75th | 26th |
| Indiana | 95th | 1st |
| Iowa | 44th | 40th |
| Iowa State | 68th | 22nd |
| Jacksonville State | 54th | 38th |
| James Madison | 65th | 44th |
| Kansas | 85th | 28th |
| Kansas State | 71st | 49th |
| Kennesaw State | 56th | 30th |
| Kent State | 21st | 86th |
| Kentucky | 15th | 85th |
| LSU | 14th | 81st |
| Liberty | 43rd | 56th |
| Louisiana | 19th | 73rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 39th | 61st |
| Louisville | 48th | 64th |
| Marshall | 55th | 39th |
| Maryland | 30th | 74th |
| Memphis | 80th | 24th |
| Miami | 76th | 5th |
| Miami (OH) | 34th | 67th |
| Michigan | 67th | 33rd |
| Michigan State | 27th | 75th |
| Middle Tennessee | 39th | 52nd |
| Minnesota | 29th | 77th |
| Mississippi State | 22nd | 77th |
| Missouri | 61st | 30th |
| Missouri State | 55th | 46th |
| NC State | 86th | 23rd |
| Navy | 94th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 48th | 57th |
| Nevada | 3rd | 97th |
| New Mexico | 58th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 9th | 87th |
| North Carolina | 13th | 89th |
| North Texas | 98th | 7th |
| Northern Illinois | 8th | 92nd |
| Northwestern | 52nd | 36th |
| Notre Dame | 99th | 20th |
| Ohio | 67th | 18th |
| Ohio State | 93rd | 4th |
| Oklahoma | 20th | 80th |
| Oklahoma State | 5th | 95th |
| Old Dominion | 83rd | 45th |
| Ole Miss | 89th | 2nd |
| Oregon | 91st | 10th |
| Oregon State | 2nd | 98th |
| Penn State | 73rd | 33rd |
| Pittsburgh | 60th | 39th |
| Purdue | 25th | 78th |
| Rice | 6th | 94th |
| Rutgers | 70th | 27th |
| SMU | 74th | 42nd |
| Sam Houston | 4th | 96th |
| San Diego State | 24th | 76th |
| San José State | 45th | 69th |
| South Alabama | 36th | 58th |
| South Carolina | 23rd | 86th |
| South Florida | 87th | 23rd |
| Southern Miss | 40th | 55th |
| Stanford | 10th | 90th |
| Syracuse | 5th | 95th |
| TCU | 72nd | 35th |
| Temple | 70th | 34th |
| Tennessee | 96th | 11th |
| Texas | 45th | 55th |
| Texas A&M | 82nd | 14th |
| Texas State | 92nd | 8th |
| Texas Tech | 77th | 31st |
| Toledo | 50th | 61st |
| Troy | 14th | 80th |
| Tulane | 79th | 15th |
| Tulsa | 20th | 70th |
| UAB | 61st | 45th |
| UCF | 33rd | 82nd |
| UCLA | 23rd | 79th |
| UConn | 95th | 13th |
| UL Monroe | 11th | 92nd |
| UNLV | 88th | 9th |
| USC | 98th | 2nd |
| UTEP | 1st | 99th |
| UTSA | 77th | 51st |
| Utah | 97th | 6th |
| Utah State | 46th | 63rd |
| Vanderbilt | 100th | 0th |
| Virginia | 59th | 27th |
| Virginia Tech | 32nd | 71st |
| Wake Forest | 42nd | 72nd |
| Washington | 92nd | 8th |
| Washington State | 33rd | 52nd |
| West Virginia | 7th | 93rd |
| Western Kentucky | 53rd | 29th |
| Western Michigan | 31st | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 0th | 100th |
| Wyoming | 8th | 91st |
Fourth-quarter reliability, corrected
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 72nd percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it drops to the 54th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
27th percentile success on standard downs, 38th on passing downs — little dropoff between the two — a schedule-independent identity.
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 82nd | 69th |
| Akron | 20th | 36th |
| Alabama | 47th | 76th |
| App State | 41st | 80th |
| Arizona | 54th | 54th |
| Arizona State | 40th | 37th |
| Arkansas | 90th | 97th |
| Arkansas State | 51st | 40th |
| Army | 37th | 44th |
| Auburn | 73rd | 24th |
| Austin Peay | 56th | 13th |
| BYU | 91st | 46th |
| Ball State | 5th | 3rd |
| Baylor | 70th | 77th |
| Boise State | 42nd | 63rd |
| Boston College | 56th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 10th | 17th |
| Bryant | 7th | 2nd |
| Buffalo | 29th | 20th |
| California | 25th | 66th |
| Central Michigan | 57th | 11th |
| Charlotte | 7th | 7th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 65th |
| Clemson | 49th | 34th |
| Coastal Carolina | 16th | 22nd |
| Colorado | 8th | 48th |
| Colorado State | 29th | 35th |
| Delaware | 66th | 31st |
| Duke | 82nd | 63rd |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 91st |
| Eastern Michigan | 46th | 67th |
| Florida | 52nd | 45th |
| Florida Atlantic | 44th | 61st |
| Florida International | 50th | 26th |
| Florida State | 65th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 22nd | 71st |
| Georgia | 95th | 69th |
| Georgia Southern | 64th | 84th |
| Georgia State | 22nd | 75th |
| Georgia Tech | 92nd | 89th |
| Hawai'i | 33rd | 87th |
| Houston | 61st | 29th |
| Idaho | 30th | 78th |
| Idaho State | 93rd | 14th |
| Illinois | 79th | 95th |
| Indiana | 97th | 98th |
| Iowa | 74th | 19th |
| Iowa State | 80th | 58th |
| Jacksonville State | 59th | 56th |
| James Madison | 77th | 52nd |
| Kansas | 99th | 82nd |
| Kansas State | 37th | 59th |
| Kennesaw State | 44th | 67th |
| Kent State | 15th | 5th |
| Kentucky | 62nd | 29th |
| LSU | 18th | 52nd |
| Lafayette | 0th | 12th |
| Liberty | 65th | 53rd |
| Lindenwood | 4th | 1st |
| Long Island University | 24th | 78th |
| Louisiana | 24th | 23rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 41st | 24th |
| Louisville | 84th | 32nd |
| Maine | 3rd | 18th |
| Marshall | 71st | 62nd |
| Maryland | 11th | 86th |
| Massachusetts | 5th | 9th |
| Memphis | 75th | 68th |
| Merrimack | 1st | 83rd |
| Miami | 80th | 64th |
| Miami (OH) | 33rd | 39th |
| Michigan | 73rd | 74th |
| Michigan State | 48th | 39th |
| Middle Tennessee | 69th | 47th |
| Minnesota | 35th | 33rd |
| Mississippi State | 52nd | 35th |
| Missouri | 76th | 50th |
| Missouri State | 32nd | 50th |
| Murray State | 1st | 6th |
| NC State | 58th | 71st |
| Navy | 95th | 72nd |
| Nebraska | 78th | 51st |
| Nevada | 17th | 16th |
| New Mexico | 38th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 16th | 33rd |
| North Carolina | 14th | 30th |
| North Texas | 100th | 97th |
| Northern Illinois | 9th | 5th |
| Northwestern | 48th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 88th | 99th |
| Ohio | 69th | 76th |
| Ohio State | 99th | 99th |
| Oklahoma | 39th | 41st |
| Oklahoma State | 14th | 7th |
| Old Dominion | 72nd | 79th |
| Ole Miss | 83rd | 95th |
| Oregon | 93rd | 55th |
| Oregon State | 54th | 25th |
| Penn State | 76th | 73rd |
| Pittsburgh | 35th | 56th |
| Purdue | 46th | 88th |
| Rice | 20th | 0th |
| Rutgers | 71st | 84th |
| SMU | 50th | 57th |
| Sam Houston | 26th | 4th |
| San Diego State | 84th | 1st |
| San José State | 68th | 70th |
| South Alabama | 53rd | 28th |
| South Carolina | 31st | 8th |
| South Carolina State | 10th | 3rd |
| South Florida | 86th | 46th |
| Southern Miss | 27th | 38th |
| Stanford | 12th | 12th |
| Syracuse | 19th | 10th |
| TCU | 63rd | 82nd |
| Temple | 85th | 22nd |
| Tennessee | 97th | 81st |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 88th | 59th |
| Texas State | 60th | 93rd |
| Texas Tech | 45th | 65th |
| Toledo | 67th | 42nd |
| Troy | 18th | 27th |
| Tulane | 81st | 86th |
| Tulsa | 43rd | 43rd |
| UAB | 34th | 94th |
| UCF | 39th | 20th |
| UCLA | 28th | 48th |
| UConn | 96th | 37th |
| UL Monroe | 13th | 14th |
| UNLV | 78th | 85th |
| USC | 94th | 90th |
| UT Martin | 2nd | 41st |
| UTEP | 3rd | 10th |
| UTSA | 67th | 92nd |
| Utah | 87th | 96th |
| Utah State | 31st | 49th |
| Vanderbilt | 90th | 100th |
| Virginia | 36th | 73rd |
| Virginia Tech | 59th | 21st |
| Wake Forest | 21st | 31st |
| Washington | 98th | 93rd |
| Washington State | 61st | 44th |
| West Virginia | 12th | 18th |
| Western Kentucky | 55th | 80th |
| Western Michigan | 86th | 16th |
| Wisconsin | 6th | 27th |
| Wyoming | 23rd | 15th |
Halftime identity
1st-half offense ranks 47th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 56th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
Schedule mirage
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.17; 61st percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.04. The widest gap came in week 3: 0.20 raw vs. 0.03 adjusted.
Southern Miss reads strongest in explosive plays (top 19%) and passing epa allowed (top 30%); the crux lives in rushing epa allowed, where Southern Miss sits at the 23rd percentile.
offense · strengths lead
defense · higher bar = harder to play against
hidden math · special situations
Most Similar Programs · Southern Miss
Static-attribute similarity across tier, archetype, conference, and voice. Not a prediction — a calibration.
Home-Field Advantage · Southern Miss · 2018-present
46% home win rate vs 29% on the road. margin runs +12.9 better at home. M. M. Roberts Stadium seats 36,000, averaging 69% full (24,822 attendance, 25 games reported).
Positional competition · RB room
Jeffery Pittman and Matt Jones split the carries (146/222 vs 76/222) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Jeffery Pittman gets the clock-killing work.
Positional competition · WR/TE room
Elijah Metcalf (WR) and Kyirin Heath (TE) split the targets (77/103 vs 26/103) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Kyirin Heath produces in bigger chunks.
What changed
The biggest shift: red-zone pass rate moved up 14 points. The rest held closer to steady.
The biggest shift: red-zone pass rate moved up 14 points. The rest held closer to steady.
Defensive identity · pass zones
On short passes, Southern Miss’s defense allows a completion rate above the FBS mean (71.4% vs 65.9% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 158-play sample) — mid-pack, 130 of 133 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball leaderboard here: at the defense level, most teams face well under 30 rich-feed deep targets all season — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess.
75°F average kickoff temp; 8% of games had measurable precipitation; 5 mph average wind.
Based on 73 home games with weather data.
12 seasons inside the CFP era, no bids yet — the era the program is still trying to break into.
Southern Miss's 2014–2025 record is 64-84. The era is still being written; the CFP line is the one the program is arguing for.
All-Time Record
since 1913 · 89 seasons · .520 win rate
Brett Favre learned to throw in Hattiesburg. The program that produced him once won 21 straight seasons. In 2024, it won one game. That's the distance Southern Miss is clawing back across.
Southern Miss is a program that carries its history like an heirloom — the 21-year winning streak from 1988 to 2010 is not mythology, it's evidence. A working-class Mississippi school that built one of the sport's great G5 runs, developed a Hall of Fame quarterback in Favre, and beat ranked SEC programs on the road for decades. 'The Rock' was where that identity lived, and for a long time it was enough to make Hattiesburg a name people knew.
Then came the fall. The streak ended in 2011, the coaching door started spinning, and 2024 bottomed out at 1-11 under two different coaches. Charles Huff arrived in 2025 and steadied the ship enough to reach a bowl — the New Orleans Bowl, a loss to Western Kentucky — before leaving after one year for Memphis, the program's own blood rival. That particular exit stung. Now Blake Anderson, promoted from offensive coordinator, holds the rebuild with a roster that didn't have to reset again and the institutional memory of what Southern Miss used to be.
The 2026 question is whether this is stabilization or the start of something. Anderson is a former Sun Belt-title head coach who knows how to build; the question in C-USA is whether a 7-6 foundation under a promoted coordinator can hold together long enough to become a real ascent. Southern Miss has the history to believe the answer is yes. The 2024 bottom was the floor, not the ceiling.
Tough, quarterback-driven, opportunistic — the brand Southern Miss built over two decades of winning and is trying to restore. Blake Anderson's pass-first staff inherits a system built around developing pro-style passers and punching above a G5 budget. The tradition is giant-killing on the road and protecting 'The Rock' at home. The identity is there; the question is whether the personnel depth has rebuilt enough to execute it.
Southern Miss 2016–2025. Holding the line. The 10-year slope (-0.15 rungs / yr) doesn't tilt either way — the program lives at roughly Tier 2.
12 seasons on file
down middle peak CFP year
Season Standing · 2025 · 7-6
Southern Miss: 6+ wins, bowl access secured. The baseline of a successful FBS year.
Sun Belt Standing · 2025
Southern Miss is 3rd in the Sun Belt at 5-3. 2 teams above — that's the direct path to the title game.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Madison | 8-0 |
| 2 | Old Dominion | 6-2 |
| 3 | Southern Miss | 5-3 |
| 4 | Troy | 5-3 |
| 5 | Coastal Carolina | 5-4 |
| 6 | Georgia Southern | 5-4 |
| 7 | Arkansas State | 4-3 |
| 8 | Louisiana | 4-3 |
| 9 | South Alabama | 3-4 |
| 10 | Louisiana Tech | 2-0 |
| 11 | Marshall | 2-5 |
| 12 | App State | 2-7 |
| 13 | UL Monroe | 1-6 |
| 14 | Georgia State | 0-8 |
Coaching Era · Southern Miss
Blake Anderson took over from Charles Huff for the 2026 season.
Three gameday rituals — the ones outsiders never quite catch.
since 1988
Southern Miss achieved 21 consecutive winning seasons (1988-2010) — at the time, the longest active streak in CFB. The streak crossed multiple head coaches (Curley Hallman, Jeff Bower, Larry Fedora) + multiple conferences. The 2010-2011 ended the streak; the recovery has been multi-year. The 21-season run is permanent G5 identity.
since 1987
Brett Favre played QB at Southern Miss 1987-1990 + was drafted by the Falcons (#33 NFL draft 1991). Favre's Hall of Fame NFL career + the iconic Packers-Vikings career + the 'gunslinger' identity retroactively elevated USM football. Favre's #4 jersey is retired; the legacy is permanent program identity.
since 1932
M.M. Roberts Stadium (built 1932, expanded multiple times, nicknamed 'The Rock' for the limestone-and-brick architecture) — Southern Miss's permanent venue. The 36,000 capacity + Hattiesburg setting + Pine Belt Mississippi geography + the 1932-era construction create a venue distinct from larger flagship-state programs.
Program memory
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
1987
A Hattiesburg walk-on wins the starting job and begins the path to the Hall of Fame — the story every Eagle fan leads with
A 12-2 season and a C-USA championship vault Southern Miss to a top-20 finish — the modern high point
2024
After Will Hall is fired mid-season, Southern Miss falls to 1-11 — the lowest point in a long fall from the winning-seasons streak
Wound
Moment of the Year · Southern Miss · 2025
Week 17 of 2025. The single game that defined the season's arc.
Bowl / Postseason Ledger
Most recent: 2025 — loss 16-27 (home). Last 5 postseason: 2-3.
NFL Draft Pipeline
2023–20231 picks last 5 cycles. Roster development still maturing.
Unit lineage
FBS-relative efficiency percentile per season (2014–2025), same population as the Coordinator Mirror board. Dashed vertical lines mark a coordinator change.
Hired for 2026: Kyle Cefalo — not yet reflected in on-field data.
Hired for 2026: Joe Bolden — not yet reflected in on-field data.
All-time top community posts · ranked by upvotes
Southern Miss · Next-Season Outcome Band
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
Fanbase Health Index · Southern Miss · high confidence
2025 stat leaders
How They Play · 2025
Most Similar Programs · Southern Miss
Season Standing · 2025 · 7-6
Coaching Era · Southern Miss
Moment of the Year · Southern Miss · 2025
Bowl / Postseason Ledger
NFL Draft Pipeline