Auburn routs Southern Miss 43-8
Team pages: Southern Miss · Auburn
Auburn routed Southern Miss 43-8. Share this game
We had Auburn favored. It won.
How it swung
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Auburn a 60% chance, and the closing betting line (Auburn was a 32.5-point favorite) put it above 99%.
Auburn led by 17 after the first quarter and by 19 at the half.
Auburn · Q1 14:50SafetyAuburn · Q3 3:26Auburn 43-8 Southern Miss
Auburn wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Southern Miss 8-43 AuburnSouthern Miss lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.No single play moved the chance by 20 points.
No single play moved the chance by 20 points.
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Auburn -32.5), at 99% for Auburn (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. The gray band is r/CFB game-thread activity.Watch the plays
The bar and the arrow show Auburn’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.
- Q1, 14:50Hampton intercepted by Jordan at the USM29returned for a TDQ1, 14:50 · Auburn 7, Southern Miss 07-0score after the play7-0score after the play▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q1, 3:45Brown 22-yd TD pass to EcholsAuburn leads 14-0Q1, 3:45 · Auburn 14, Southern Miss 014-0score after the play14-0score after the play▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q1, 2:19Hampton intercepted by Jordan at the Auburn 41Q1, 2:19 · Auburn 14, Southern Miss 014-0score after the play14-0score after the play▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q2, 6:40Brown 8-yd TD pass to SpencerAuburn leads 24-0Q2, 6:40 · Auburn 24, Southern Miss 024-0score after the play24-0score after the play▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q2, 0:24Hampton 1-yd TD pass to Robinsoncuts it to 24-8Q2, 0:24 · Auburn 24, Southern Miss 824-8score after the play24-8score after the play▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q3, 9:56Neptune 5-yd TD pass to BrownAuburn leads 34-8Q3, 9:56 · Auburn 34, Southern Miss 834-8score after the play34-8score after the play▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q3, 4:05Cobb 19-yd runfumblesQ3, 4:05 · Auburn 34, Southern Miss 834-8score after the play34-8score after the play▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q3, 0:09Mabson 2-yd TD runAuburn leads 43-8Q3, 0:09 · Auburn 43, Southern Miss 843-8score after the play43-8score after the play▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q3, 0:05Lyddy sacked for a 7-yd lossQ3, 0:05 · Auburn 43, Southern Miss 843-8score after the play43-8score after the play▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
Every drive
Auburn scored on 6 of its 11 drives; Southern Miss on 1 of its 11.
Auburn’s drives are teal, Southern Miss’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
What it cost
Southern Miss’s chance to make the playoff fell from 17% to 13%.
Make the playoff
Win the conference
Before the game (September 11, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
Box score
Auburn 43, Southern Miss 8
Auburn covered −32.5 by 2.5. The total, 51, stayed under 56.5.
| Team totals | Southern Miss | Auburn |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 221 | 610 |
| Passing | 22 of 33, 171 yds | 20 of 33, 267 yds |
| Rushing | 25 for 50 yds | 51 for 343 yds |
| First downs | 12 | 31 |
| Third down | 5 of 13 | 7 of 15 |
| Fourth down | 0 of 2 | 4 of 5 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 1 |
| Penalties | 11 for 85 yds | 10 for 73 yds |
| Time of possession | 27:11 | 32:49 |
Southern Miss leaders
- Passing Ethan Hampton 18 of 27, 146 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
- Rushing Steven Robinson 15 for 51 yds; Jamarice Wilder 3 for 11 yds
- Receiving Mario Sanders II 3 for 58 yds; A.J. Little 4 for 27 yds
Auburn leaders
- Passing Byrum Brown 17 of 28, 223 yds, 2 TD
- Rushing Omar Mabson Ii 15 for 108 yds, 1 TD; Byrum Brown 13 for 88 yds
- Receiving Jeremiah Koger 2 for 57 yds; Chas Nimrod 7 for 52 yds
Kickoff came 1 hour 3 minutes late
no rain recorded
No thunder was reported at Auburn-opelika Apt airport (3.4 miles away) around the delay.
September game-day temperatures at Jordan-Hare Stadium
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
Where this weather comes from
Measured at Auburn-opelika Apt airport, 3.4 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games · 2025 season
Southern Miss · 7-6
Rated 57th in our preseason ratings, 57th now.
Three straight losses.
L 16-27 vs Western Kentucky #89 of 667
lost by 11 as a 2.5-point favorite
L 18-28 vs Troy #117 of 667
lost by 10 as a 6.5-point favorite
L 35-42 @ South Alabama #112 of 667
lost by 7 as a 2.5-point favorite
L 14-41 vs Texas State #61 of 667
lost by 27 as a 3.5-point favorite
W 27-21 @ Arkansas State #129 of 667
won by 6 as a 6.5-point favorite
W 49-21 vs UL Monroe #180 of 667
won by 28 as a 13.5-point favorite
W 22-10 @ Louisiana #135 of 667
won by 12 as a 4.5-point favorite
W 38-35 @ Georgia Southern #129 of 667
won by 3 as a 2.5-point favorite
W 42-25 vs Jacksonville State #98 of 667
won by 17 as a 5.5-point favorite
L 20-30 @ Louisiana Tech #120 of 667
lost by 10 as a 3.5-point underdog
W 38-22 vs App State #107 of 667
won by 16 as a 2.5-point underdog
W 38-20 vs Jackson State #103 of 667
won by 18 as a 13.5-point favorite
L 17-34 vs Mississippi State #37 of 667
lost by 17 as a 15.5-point underdog
Last three games · 2025 season
Auburn · 5-7
Rated 71st in our preseason ratings, 70th now.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
L 20-27 vs AlabamaTop 25 #8 of 667
lost by 7 as a 6.5-point underdog
W 62-17 vs Mercer #90 of 667
won by 45 as a 26.5-point favorite
L 38-45 @ VanderbiltTop 25 #24 of 667
lost by 7 as a 5.5-point underdog
L 3-10 vs Kentucky #52 of 667
lost by 7 as an 11.5-point favorite
W 33-24 @ Arkansas #27 of 667
won by 9 as a 2.5-point underdog
L 17-23 vs MissouriTop 25 #11 of 667
lost by 6 as a 1.5-point underdog
L 10-20 vs GeorgiaTop 25 #6 of 667
lost by 10 as a 4.5-point underdog
L 10-16 @ Texas A&MTop 25 #14 of 667
lost by 6 as a 6.5-point underdog
L 17-24 @ OklahomaTop 25 #13 of 667
lost by 7 as a 6.5-point underdog
W 31-15 vs South Alabama #79 of 667
won by 16 as a 26.5-point favorite
W 42-3 vs Ball State #169 of 667
won by 39 as a 42.5-point favorite
W 38-24 @ Baylor #26 of 667
won by 14 as a 1.5-point underdog
Week by week
Auburn
- Wk 1Wvs Baylor17-16
Southern Miss
- Wk 1Wvs Alcorn State49-3
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Auburn’s rushing EPA against Southern Miss, 68 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Auburn’s rushing EPA against Southern Miss’s defense
Auburn offense, 76th percentile · Southern Miss defense, 8th
Southern Miss’s EPA/play against Auburn’s defense
Southern Miss offense, 15th percentile · Auburn defense, 67th
Southern Miss’s explosive plays against Auburn’s defense
Southern Miss offense, 39th percentile · Auburn defense, 76th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
Auburn leads the series 18-5
23 meetings since 1946 · Auburn has won the last 4
- 2018Auburn 24-13
- 2008Auburn 27-13
- 1993Auburn 35-24
- 1992Auburn 16-8
- 1991Southern Miss 10-9
Each line is Auburn’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Southern Miss fans are in a better mood than Auburn fans (64th vs 45th among FBS fanbases), even with Auburn favored.
- Model · 60%
- Line · 100%
- Auburn fans · 45th
- Southern Miss fans · 64th
Auburn favored by 32.5 · Total 56.5
How games like this usually go
Auburn by 32.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 411 games since 2025 with a favorite of 21.5 points or more.
The market
The spread moved 3 points toward Auburn.
The total rose 4 points.
Spread: −29.5 → −32.5 · Total: 52.5 → 56.5
The books’ cut: 2.2%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Auburn is worth +5.6 points (±3.8) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 75th percentile.
56% at home, 37% on the road against FBS opponents (29-23 home, 14-24 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -3.1 at home vs. away over 97 games — inside the ±5.2 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 242 miles to get here.