Southern Miss at Auburn
Fan take
Southern Miss fans
Auburn fans
How they got here
Last three games · 2025 season
Southern Miss · 7-6
Picked #58 in the preseason · now #65.
Three straight losses.
L 16–27 vs Western Kentucky #91 of 668
lost by 11 as a 3-point favorite
L 18–28 vs Troy #111 of 668
lost by 10 as a 7-point favorite
L 35–42 @ South Alabama #119 of 668
lost by 7 as a 2.5-point favorite
L 14–41 vs Texas State #59 of 668
lost by 27 as a 3.5-point favorite
W 27–21 @ Arkansas State #139 of 668
won by 6 as a 6.5-point favorite
W 49–21 vs UL Monroe #171 of 668
won by 28 as a 14-point favorite
W 22–10 @ Louisiana #100 of 668
won by 12 as a 4.5-point favorite
W 38–35 @ Georgia Southern #109 of 668
won by 3 as a 3-point favorite
W 42–25 vs Jacksonville State #73 of 668
won by 17 as a 5.5-point favorite
L 20–30 @ Louisiana Tech #131 of 668
lost by 10 as a 3.5-point underdog
W 38–22 vs App State #141 of 668
won by 16 as a 2.5-point underdog
W 38–20 vs Jackson State #123 of 668
won by 18 as a 13.5-point favorite
L 17–34 vs Mississippi State #123 of 668
lost by 17 as a 14.5-point underdog
Last three games · 2025 season
Auburn · 5-7
Picked #72 in the preseason · now #56 — better than expected.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
L 20–27 vs AlabamaTop 25 #7 of 668
lost by 7 as a 7-point underdog
W 62–17 vs Mercer #91 of 668
won by 45 as a 26.5-point favorite
L 38–45 @ VanderbiltTop 25 #26 of 668
lost by 7 as a 5.5-point underdog
L 3–10 vs Kentucky #80 of 668
lost by 7 as a 12-point favorite
W 33–24 @ Arkansas #50 of 668
won by 9 as a 2.5-point underdog
L 17–23 vs MissouriTop 25 #19 of 668
lost by 6 as a 1.5-point underdog
L 10–20 vs GeorgiaTop 25 #9 of 668
lost by 10 as a 4.5-point underdog
L 10–16 @ Texas A&MTop 25 #11 of 668
lost by 6 as a 6.5-point underdog
L 17–24 @ OklahomaTop 25 #14 of 668
lost by 7 as a 6.5-point underdog
W 31–15 vs South Alabama #94 of 668
won by 16 as a 26.5-point favorite
W 42–3 vs Ball State #234 of 668
won by 39 as a 42.5-point favorite
W 38–24 @ Baylor #15 of 668
won by 14 as a 1-point favorite
What’s at stake
Make the CFP field
Win the conference
Win it all
CFP odds as of September 13, 2026
The series
Auburn leads the series 19-5
24 meetings since 1946 · Auburn has won the last 5
- 2026Auburn 43–8
- 2018Auburn 24–13
- 2008Auburn 27–13
- 1993Auburn 35–24
- 1992Auburn 16–8
Best players
Southern Miss
- Laquan Robinson (DB) · 17 tackles
- Mathis Haygood (LB) · 15 tackles
- Mario Sanders II (WR) · 152 receiving yards
Auburn
- Elijah Melendez (LB) · 18 tackles
- Eric Winters (S) · 14 tackles
- Byrum Brown (QB) · 482 passing yards — Heisman odds: 21st (+5000)
The line, and the room
Southern Miss fans are feeling better about their season (70th percentile) than Auburn fans are (41st) — even with Auburn favored here.
- Model · 60%
- Market · 100%
- Auburn fans · 41st
- Southern Miss fans · 70th
Home −32.5 · O/U 56.5
Conditions
80°F · 4 mph wind · Cloudy
Auburn is worth +5.7 points (±3.9) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 76th percentile.
56% at home, 36% on the road against FBS opponents (28–22 home, 13–23 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -5.1 at home vs. away over 71 games — inside the ±6.1 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 242 miles to get here.
Southern Miss 8 – Auburn 43
Called it — picked Auburn to win.
Recent games
Auburn
- Wk 1Wvs Baylor17-16
Southern Miss
- Wk 1Wvs Alcorn State49-3
Trajectory
Auburn won 43-8, as picked pregame.