Arkansas State7-64Butch Jones enters his fifth season at Arkansas State with a 7-6 record, steering a program defined by its historic Sun Belt dominance and Centennial Bank Stadium legacy toward a new identity.
Arkansas State won five straight Sun Belt titles and turned its sideline into a coaching factory — Malzahn, Freeze, Harsin, all hired away — a program that built champions and head coaches for everyone but itself.
Red Wolves fans say the power programs treat Arkansas State as a vending machine — pull a coach, take the blueprint, move on — and never once look back; Jonesboro says it built the tree the SEC harves…
Approaching
30 days
until kickoff · at Memphis · Sat Sep 5 · 23:00 UTC
Arkansas State is the Sun Belt program whose 2011-2016 5-consecutive-Sun-Belt-championships dynasty + Centennial Bank Stadium + Hugh Freeze/Bryan Harsin coaching tree define what historic-Sun-Belt-football looks like.
The team's recruiting rank of #85 and significant transfer losses may hinder performance, while the returning player percentage stands at 59%.
Howl the Red Wolf is patient.
the open questionwhere does it go from here?
Arkansas State enters 2026 rated No. 100 in 2025 SP+ (-8.8).
Trey Owens arrives at Arkansas State as Butch Jones' answer to sustaining 90% QB production returning after a 7-6 season — a top-3 Sun Belt portal class for a program built on dynasties.
Butch Jones enters his fifth season with a 7-6 record, but the program's identity hinges on reviving its historic Sun Belt dominance and rebuilding a struggling roster.
Butch Jones enters his fifth season at Arkansas State with a 7-6 record, steering a program defined by its historic Sun Belt dominance and Centennial Bank Stadium legacy toward a new identity.
Butch Jones' sixth season opens with a 7-6 record and a 1.0 win total jump — crossing into bowl eligibility as Arkansas State's talent rank (#88) hints at a floor, not a ceiling.
Chauncy Cobb is a legitimate money-down target -- his 3rd-down conversion rate ranks among the position's best, and his per-target value holds up in that spot too.
Butch Jones enters his fifth season with a 7-6 record, but the program's identity hinges on reviving its historic Sun Belt dominance and rebuilding a struggling roster.
Kenyon Clay: a closer signal screened this season.
Jaylen Raynor named Iowa State QB1
QB1 confirmed at Iowa State — the Raynor chapter in Jonesboro is closed, and Butch Jones now needs that portal class ranked #75 to produce a starter, not just depth.
Win total: 5.5 → 6.5 (▲1)
Win total jumped from 5.5 to 6.5 with conference peers flat — the books see something program-specific.
Xzavier Pfister commits to Arkansas State
LB depth was already a pressure point for Butch Jones — Pfister slots into a class ranked #75 nationally that still needs bodies who can play downhill.
Top 3 commits
Market outlook
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-08-06
Arkansas State · Next-Season Outcome Band
Final-season-aware projection: floor / base / ceiling include conference title and CFP games where the model supports them, so a ceiling can exceed a 12-game regular season.
Arkansas State enters 2026 rated No. 100 in 2025 SP+ (-8.8). SP+ describes what the program HAS done, not what it will do. The season is the field test. Preview coverage is split — believers and skeptics are reading the same data differently.
The 'the projection is underselling us' read -- fans betting the season beats the preview number.
The 'the model has seen the tape' counter -- efficiency ratings reward what a program has actually done, not hope.
Only 2 of 18 board posts mention it — below our floor to call a community stance. Shown as texture, not a verdict.
The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.
Arkansas State signed a top-52 transfer-portal class — 32 additions headlined by Jax Brown (QB) from Sam Houston and Ethan Crawford (QB) from Southern Miss. Portal pickups don't redshirt. The coverage sees this as a targeted, ready-to-contribute class built for snap competition, not depth-chart filler. The coverage reads this as a credible, targeted haul.
The 'portal class fills the gaps' believers -- upgrades at real positions of need.
The 'portal is a gamble' counter -- departure losses and the 'plug-and-play doesn't work' read.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
Recent Form · last 10 games
Three of five. Trending up, not yet hot.
Opens Sep 5
vs Memphis · away
✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
MS leads the 2026 class with 7 commits. National footprint reaching 8 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
111 signees across 14 states, 2023-2026. TX leads the pull.
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
7 games with TV coverage: 4 ESPN, 3 streaming
Kickoff windows: 1 noon, 2 afternoon, 4 primetime
23% recovery rate on their own fumbles — below the ~51% league baseline.
3 of 13 own fumbles recovered themselves; 6 of 10 forced fumbles recovered, 2025 only.
18% of tipped/broken-up passes have turned into picks — about the ~19% league average.
7 interceptions of 39 disrupted passes (32 deflected, 7 intercepted), 2025 only.
82 penalties committed, 117 drawn on opponents — netting a 262-yard field-position edge.
752 penalty yards committed vs. 1014 drawn on opponents, 2025 season total.
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Position = mood · width = volume · color = the kind of feeling
~ our readArkansas State fans are down on the program, with almost nothing concrete behind it yet.
✓ counted We read 52 posts from Arkansas State fans this week.
“Fire everyone even remotely associated with the program. That defense is the biggest pile of shit I've ever seen on a football field”— r/CFB
“Our 3rd 2-10 season since 2018. Explain to me why the hell Yurachek is still employed and is being allowed to make this hire? Nobody in charge gives a shit”— r/CFB
“It worked, they got the ball back with 2:09 to go and they still have one of their timeouts. I'm still not expecting much from the offense”— r/CFB
Five Lenses
What people are saying right now
Fanbase Health Index · Arkansas State · medium confidence
FBS rankings · 2025 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pocket Passer · +0.12 EPA/play | 1 | 13 | 332 / 500 | 66.4 | 3364 #20 FBS | 6.7 | 19 #44 FBS | 11 | 131.1 | 52.5 | 5.8 | 5.3 | |
Yards by week → Pocket PasserBalanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile. Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. The most common profile in its group this season — 97 of 183 classified this way. Played in 13 of 21 games this season · junior Aura Tax — perception-vs-production gap across 4 tracked snapshots, 85 mentions | |||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Stuff% | 10+% | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Satellite Back · -0.04 EPA/play | 24 | 13 | 108 | 559 | 5.2 | 3 | 43 | 7.6 | 10.7 | 16.8 | 15.0 | 7.6% (37/484) | |
Yards by week → Satellite BackDeployed as a receiver as much as a runner. Value is in space, not between the tackles. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 50 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Receiving share18.8% 87th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / reception5.0 bottom 21th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Devin Spencer's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Workhorse · -0.08 EPA/play | 5 | 13 | 139 | 523 | 3.8 | 3 | 30 | 12.4 | 10.4 | 16.9 | 8.8 | 7.9% (38/484) | |
Yards by week → WorkhorseBuilt to take 20+ carries per game. Volume is the value. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 52 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight220 lb 82th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Receiving share21.0% 93th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Kenyon Clay's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Possession Receiver · +0.30 EPA/play | 7 | 13 | 73 | 1029 #16 FBS | 14.1 | 4 | 71 | 17.3 | 18.1 | 27.1% (131/484) | |
Yards by week → Possession Receiver· Boom-or-bustReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception13.7 54th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Reception volume73 98th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Corey Rucker's full player page | |||||||||||
| Slot Technician · +0.51 EPA/play | 16 | 13 | 73 | 797 #70 FBS | 10.9 | 1 | 51 | 10.8 | 9.6 | 18.8% (91/484) | |
Yards by week → Slot Technician· Return threatRuns precise routes in tight quarters. Volume player who keeps chains moving. a house-call threat every time he fields it All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 97 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Reception volume73 98th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate1.4% bottom 12th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Chauncy Cobb's full player page | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.20 EPA/play | 3 | 13 | 44 | 505 | 11.5 | 4 | 43 | 8.1 | 10.4 | 15.9% (77/484) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception10.3 bottom 22th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.2 bottom 15th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score went from the 2nd percentile among FBS WRs to the 60th | |||||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.48 EPA/play | 19 | 11 | 32 | 294 | 9.2 | 2 | 28 | 6.8 | 6.7 | 7.9% (38/484) | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. The most common profile in its group this season — 177 of 223 classified this way. Played in 11 of 21 games this season · junior View Tyler Fortenberry's full player page | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · -0.09 EPA/play | 10 | 9 | 22 | 200 | 9.1 | 3 | 34 | 4.9 | 8.5 | 7.4% (36/484) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception9.7 bottom 14th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)-0.1 bottom 2th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jaylen Bonelli's full player page | |||||||||||
| +0.15 EPA/play | 87 | 2 | 6 | 71 | 11.8 | 1 | 28 | 0 | 5.4 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
| Complete TE · -0.26 EPA/play | 17 | 5 | 10 | 70 | 7 | 0 | 28 | 7.4 | 5.8 | — | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. 177 of 223 TEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception2.6 bottom 1th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions EPA / play (adj)-0.3 bottom 2th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jabari Bush's full player page | |||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 32 | 13 | 55 | 20 | 13 #42 FBS | 8 #27 FBS | 7 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate23.6% 83th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Ethan Hassler's full player page | |||||||
| Versatile End | 10 | 13 | 53 | 19 | 13.5 #36 FBS | 8.5 #25 FBS | 7 |
Versatile EndNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. The most common profile in its group this season — 139 of 200 classified this way. Played in 13 of 21 games this season · senior View Demarcus Hendricks's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 97 | 11 | 46 | 13 | 3 | 1.5 | 2 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. The most common profile in its group this season — 388 of 809 classified this way. Played in 11 of 21 games this season · senior View Simeon Mitchell's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 17 | 13 | 37 | 10 | 3 | 2.5 | 1 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 388 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate8.1% bottom 25th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readBreakout: his CFB Index score went from the 51st percentile among FBS IDLs to the 93rd | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 94 | 11 | 34 | 16 | 7 | 5 | 6 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate20.6% 73th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readUnranked recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile | |||||||
| Versatile End | 3 | 3 | 25 | 16 | 2.5 | 0 | 1 |
Versatile EndNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. 139 of 200 EDGEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate10.0% bottom 19th percentile · FBS EDGE, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Javante Mackey's full player page | |||||||
| Power Rusher | 4 | 12 | 21 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 0 |
Power RusherBull-rushes through contact, winning with size and length at the point of attack. 10 of 200 EDGEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate42.9% 98th percentile · FBS EDGE, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readTwo-star recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 93 | 8 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Nose AnchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. 152 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight307 lb 80th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readFading: his CFB Index score went from the 59th percentile among FBS IDLs to the 14th | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 54 | 5 | 12 | 4 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 388 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate20.8% 74th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Ryan Reese's full player page | |||||||
| 12 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| 11 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 3.5 | 3 | 2 | |
| 27 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Linebacker | 25 | 12 | 92 | 36 | 56 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 362 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume92 93th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles PD rate0.0% bottom 18th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Aaron Alexander's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 20 | 11 | 84 | 28 | 56 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 362 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume84 88th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate1.2% bottom 13th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Kyle Taylor's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 22 | 13 | 54 | 21 | 33 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 362 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume54 54th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate1.9% bottom 15th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Nigel Nelson's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 5 | 3 | 18 | 7 | 11 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. The most common profile in its group this season — 362 of 660 classified this way. Played in 3 of 21 games this season · senior View Terry Kirksey Jr.'s full player page | |||||||||
| 30 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 44 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Box Safety | 6 | 13 | 83 | 5 | 1 | 2.5 | 0 |
Box SafetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. 166 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume83 98th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like our readReinvented: changed shape entirely — Hybrid Nickel to Box Safety, his CFB Index score now sits at the 81st percentile among FBS Ss, up from the 23rd | |||||||
| Box Safety | 8 | 13 | 68 | 2 | 1 | 2.5 | 0 |
Box SafetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 166 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume68 89th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Brandon Barnes's full player page | |||||||
| Perimeter Tackler | 9 | 12 | 54 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Perimeter TacklerTargeted often and asked to tackle in space on the perimeter. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 42 of 270 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume54 96th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readSustained Ascent: his CFB Index score shows two real climbs in a row — 36th to 62nd to 83rd percentile among FBS CBs | |||||||
| Box Safety | 15 | 10 | 53 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
Box Safety· Takeaway threatLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. the kind of DB who takes it back the other way Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 166 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume53 70th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like our readReinvented: changed shape entirely — Hybrid Nickel to Box Safety, his CFB Index score climbed from the 1st percentile to the 69th among FBS Ss | |||||||
| Press Corner | — | 13 | 49 | 4 | 0 | 1.5 | 1 |
Press CornerLong and physical; jams receivers off their route at the line. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 43 of 270 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Height6'2" 87th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readBreakout: his CFB Index score moved from the 3rd to 56th percentile among FBS CBs | |||||||
| Box Safety | 38 | 7 | 26 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
Box SafetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. 166 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume26 bottom 22th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Joe Drew's full player page | |||||||
| 13 | 7 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 18 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 24 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 34 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Big Leg | 34 | 13 | 21/27 | 77.8 | 36/37 | 99 | 54 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 29 | 13 | 59 | 2438 | 41.3 | 57 | 19 | 2 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slot Technician · +0.51 EPA/play | 16 | 13 | 20 | 538 | 26.9 | 2 | 98 |
| 84 | 4 | 7 | 96 | 13.7 | 0 | 20 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 9 | 20 | 105 | 5.3 | 0 | 19 | |
| Possession Receiver · -0.09 EPA/play | 10 | 9 | 4 | 51 | 12.8 | 0 | 35 |
2025 stat leaders
finalRoster
2025+17 more
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 30 | #107 | #171 | -15.5 | Southeast Missouri State | W 42–24 68 | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 6 | #122 | #93 | +24.5 | Arkansas (N) | L 14–56 136 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 13 | #138 | #38 | +20.5 | Iowa State | L 16–24 132 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 4 | Sep 20 | #138 | #153 | -4.5 | @Kennesaw State | L 21–28 149 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| 5 | Sep 27 | #145 | #112 | +1.5 | @UL Monroe | L 16–28 130 | 1-4 | 0-1 |
| 6 | Oct 4 | #160 | #55 | +14.5 | Texas State | W 31–30 141 | 2-4 | 0-1 |
| 8 | Oct 14 | #152 | #116 | +8.5 | @South Alabama | W 15–14 136 | 3-4 | 1-1 |
| 9 | Oct 25 | #147 | #114 | +1 | Georgia Southern | W 34–24 151 | 4-4 | 2-1 |
| 10 | Nov 2 | #132 | #80 | +8 | @Troy | W 23–10 130 | 5-4 | 3-1 |
| 11 | Nov 8 | #115 | #108 | +6.5 | Southern Miss | L 21–27 164 | 5-5 | 3-2 |
| 13 | Nov 21 | #146 | #102 | -2.5 | Louisiana | L 30–34 149 | 5-6 | 3-3 |
| 14 | Nov 29 | #154 | #158 | -1.5 | @App State | W 30–29 156 | 6-6 | 4-3 |
| Bowl Season | ||||||||
| 16 | Dec 19 | #141 | #147 | -1.5 | Missouri State (N) | W 34–28 | 7-6 | 4-3 |
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 19 | Missouri State | W 34–28 | — | — | — | +0.133 | 29.3% | 181.1% | Most explosive |
| Nov 29 | @App State | W 30–29 | 448 | 3 | 30:31 | +0.169 | 44.4% | 110.5% | One-score win |
| Nov 21 | Louisiana | L 30–34 | 394 | 2 | 26:01 | -0.004 | 44.3% | 88.5% | One-score loss |
| Nov 8 | Southern Miss | L 21–27 | 456 | 6 | 30:15 | -0.031 | 46.7% | 102.4% | One-score loss |
| Nov 2 | @Troy | W 23–10 | 297 | 2 | 28:25 | +0.033 | 39.1% | 117.3% | Best defensive stand |
| Oct 25 | Georgia Southern | W 34–24 | 482 | 2 | 28:17 | +0.235 | 50.6% | 105.6% | Best success rate |
| Oct 14 | @South Alabama | W 15–14 | 367 | 1 | 29:56 | +0.122 | 44.9% | 103.4% | One-score win |
| Oct 4 | Texas State | W 31–30 | 398 | 0 | 29:47 | +0.195 | 45.1% | 112.8% | One-score win |
| Sep 27 | @UL Monroe | L 16–28 | 305 | 2 | 29:39 | -0.019 | 35.1% | 136.7% | |
| Sep 20 | @Kennesaw State | L 21–28 | 318 | 1 | 27:35 | +0.139 | 36.1% | 112.8% | One-score loss |
| Sep 13 | Iowa State | L 16–24 | 382 | 1 | 34:41 | -0.011 | 39.0% | 110.5% | One-score loss |
| Sep 6 | Arkansas | L 14–56 | 285 | 2 | 36:57 | -0.096 | 36.0% | 111.7% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Aug 30 | Southeast Missouri State | W 42–24 | 492 | 1 | 30:52 | +0.332 | 48.6% | 149.3% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Season average (13 games) | 385 | 1.9 | +0.092 | 41.5% | 118.6% | ||||
Arkansas State fields a struggling pass-first, methodical, ball-control offense behind a porous defense.
Opponent-adjusted percentiles vs all FBS. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Team identity · competitive snaps only
17th percentile quality, 66th percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 86th | 11th |
| Akron | 12th | 89th |
| Alabama | 58th | 17th |
| App State | 35th | 47th |
| Arizona | 64th | 37th |
| Arizona State | 41st | 62nd |
| Arkansas | 90th | 12th |
| Arkansas State | 17th | 66th |
| Army | 57th | 43rd |
| Auburn | 47th | 53rd |
| BYU | 78th | 19th |
| Baylor | 69th | 25th |
| Boise State | 66th | 20th |
| Boston College | 37th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 2nd | 98th |
| Buffalo | 11th | 88th |
| California | 28th | 48th |
| Central Michigan | 52nd | 64th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 16th |
| Clemson | 51st | 48th |
| Coastal Carolina | 17th | 83rd |
| Colorado | 18th | 84th |
| Colorado State | 16th | 83rd |
| Delaware | 38th | 58th |
| Duke | 80th | 14th |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 36th |
| Eastern Michigan | 49th | 42nd |
| Florida | 30th | 67th |
| Florida Atlantic | 62nd | 59th |
| Florida International | 42nd | 50th |
| Florida State | 83rd | 32nd |
| Fresno State | 26th | 73rd |
| Georgia | 81st | 3rd |
| Georgia Southern | 73rd | 21st |
| Georgia State | 36th | 70th |
| Georgia Tech | 84th | 5th |
| Hawai'i | 64th | 41st |
| Houston | 27th | 65th |
| Illinois | 75th | 26th |
| Indiana | 95th | 1st |
| Iowa | 44th | 40th |
| Iowa State | 68th | 22nd |
| Jacksonville State | 54th | 38th |
| James Madison | 65th | 44th |
| Kansas | 85th | 28th |
| Kansas State | 71st | 49th |
| Kennesaw State | 56th | 30th |
| Kent State | 21st | 86th |
| Kentucky | 15th | 85th |
| LSU | 14th | 81st |
| Liberty | 43rd | 56th |
| Louisiana | 19th | 73rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 39th | 61st |
| Louisville | 48th | 64th |
| Marshall | 55th | 39th |
| Maryland | 30th | 74th |
| Memphis | 80th | 24th |
| Miami | 76th | 5th |
| Miami (OH) | 34th | 67th |
| Michigan | 67th | 33rd |
| Michigan State | 27th | 75th |
| Middle Tennessee | 39th | 52nd |
| Minnesota | 29th | 77th |
| Mississippi State | 22nd | 77th |
| Missouri | 61st | 30th |
| Missouri State | 55th | 46th |
| NC State | 86th | 23rd |
| Navy | 94th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 48th | 57th |
| Nevada | 3rd | 97th |
| New Mexico | 58th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 9th | 87th |
| North Carolina | 13th | 89th |
| North Texas | 98th | 7th |
| Northern Illinois | 8th | 92nd |
| Northwestern | 52nd | 36th |
| Notre Dame | 99th | 20th |
| Ohio | 67th | 18th |
| Ohio State | 93rd | 4th |
| Oklahoma | 20th | 80th |
| Oklahoma State | 5th | 95th |
| Old Dominion | 83rd | 45th |
| Ole Miss | 89th | 2nd |
| Oregon | 91st | 10th |
| Oregon State | 2nd | 98th |
| Penn State | 73rd | 33rd |
| Pittsburgh | 60th | 39th |
| Purdue | 25th | 78th |
| Rice | 6th | 94th |
| Rutgers | 70th | 27th |
| SMU | 74th | 42nd |
| Sam Houston | 4th | 96th |
| San Diego State | 24th | 76th |
| San José State | 45th | 69th |
| South Alabama | 36th | 58th |
| South Carolina | 23rd | 86th |
| South Florida | 87th | 23rd |
| Southern Miss | 40th | 55th |
| Stanford | 10th | 90th |
| Syracuse | 5th | 95th |
| TCU | 72nd | 35th |
| Temple | 70th | 34th |
| Tennessee | 96th | 11th |
| Texas | 45th | 55th |
| Texas A&M | 82nd | 14th |
| Texas State | 92nd | 8th |
| Texas Tech | 77th | 31st |
| Toledo | 50th | 61st |
| Troy | 14th | 80th |
| Tulane | 79th | 15th |
| Tulsa | 20th | 70th |
| UAB | 61st | 45th |
| UCF | 33rd | 82nd |
| UCLA | 23rd | 79th |
| UConn | 95th | 13th |
| UL Monroe | 11th | 92nd |
| UNLV | 88th | 9th |
| USC | 98th | 2nd |
| UTEP | 1st | 99th |
| UTSA | 77th | 51st |
| Utah | 97th | 6th |
| Utah State | 46th | 63rd |
| Vanderbilt | 100th | 0th |
| Virginia | 59th | 27th |
| Virginia Tech | 32nd | 71st |
| Wake Forest | 42nd | 72nd |
| Washington | 92nd | 8th |
| Washington State | 33rd | 52nd |
| West Virginia | 7th | 93rd |
| Western Kentucky | 53rd | 29th |
| Western Michigan | 31st | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 0th | 100th |
| Wyoming | 8th | 91st |
Fourth-quarter reliability, corrected
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 36th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it climbs to the 51st — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
51st percentile success on standard downs, 40th on passing downs — little dropoff between the two — a schedule-independent identity.
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 82nd | 69th |
| Akron | 20th | 36th |
| Alabama | 47th | 76th |
| App State | 41st | 80th |
| Arizona | 54th | 54th |
| Arizona State | 40th | 37th |
| Arkansas | 90th | 97th |
| Arkansas State | 51st | 40th |
| Army | 37th | 44th |
| Auburn | 73rd | 24th |
| Austin Peay | 56th | 13th |
| BYU | 91st | 46th |
| Ball State | 5th | 3rd |
| Baylor | 70th | 77th |
| Boise State | 42nd | 63rd |
| Boston College | 56th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 10th | 17th |
| Bryant | 7th | 2nd |
| Buffalo | 29th | 20th |
| California | 25th | 66th |
| Central Michigan | 57th | 11th |
| Charlotte | 7th | 7th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 65th |
| Clemson | 49th | 34th |
| Coastal Carolina | 16th | 22nd |
| Colorado | 8th | 48th |
| Colorado State | 29th | 35th |
| Delaware | 66th | 31st |
| Duke | 82nd | 63rd |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 91st |
| Eastern Michigan | 46th | 67th |
| Florida | 52nd | 45th |
| Florida Atlantic | 44th | 61st |
| Florida International | 50th | 26th |
| Florida State | 65th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 22nd | 71st |
| Georgia | 95th | 69th |
| Georgia Southern | 64th | 84th |
| Georgia State | 22nd | 75th |
| Georgia Tech | 92nd | 89th |
| Hawai'i | 33rd | 87th |
| Houston | 61st | 29th |
| Idaho | 30th | 78th |
| Idaho State | 93rd | 14th |
| Illinois | 79th | 95th |
| Indiana | 97th | 98th |
| Iowa | 74th | 19th |
| Iowa State | 80th | 58th |
| Jacksonville State | 59th | 56th |
| James Madison | 77th | 52nd |
| Kansas | 99th | 82nd |
| Kansas State | 37th | 59th |
| Kennesaw State | 44th | 67th |
| Kent State | 15th | 5th |
| Kentucky | 62nd | 29th |
| LSU | 18th | 52nd |
| Lafayette | 0th | 12th |
| Liberty | 65th | 53rd |
| Lindenwood | 4th | 1st |
| Long Island University | 24th | 78th |
| Louisiana | 24th | 23rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 41st | 24th |
| Louisville | 84th | 32nd |
| Maine | 3rd | 18th |
| Marshall | 71st | 62nd |
| Maryland | 11th | 86th |
| Massachusetts | 5th | 9th |
| Memphis | 75th | 68th |
| Merrimack | 1st | 83rd |
| Miami | 80th | 64th |
| Miami (OH) | 33rd | 39th |
| Michigan | 73rd | 74th |
| Michigan State | 48th | 39th |
| Middle Tennessee | 69th | 47th |
| Minnesota | 35th | 33rd |
| Mississippi State | 52nd | 35th |
| Missouri | 76th | 50th |
| Missouri State | 32nd | 50th |
| Murray State | 1st | 6th |
| NC State | 58th | 71st |
| Navy | 95th | 72nd |
| Nebraska | 78th | 51st |
| Nevada | 17th | 16th |
| New Mexico | 38th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 16th | 33rd |
| North Carolina | 14th | 30th |
| North Texas | 100th | 97th |
| Northern Illinois | 9th | 5th |
| Northwestern | 48th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 88th | 99th |
| Ohio | 69th | 76th |
| Ohio State | 99th | 99th |
| Oklahoma | 39th | 41st |
| Oklahoma State | 14th | 7th |
| Old Dominion | 72nd | 79th |
| Ole Miss | 83rd | 95th |
| Oregon | 93rd | 55th |
| Oregon State | 54th | 25th |
| Penn State | 76th | 73rd |
| Pittsburgh | 35th | 56th |
| Purdue | 46th | 88th |
| Rice | 20th | 0th |
| Rutgers | 71st | 84th |
| SMU | 50th | 57th |
| Sam Houston | 26th | 4th |
| San Diego State | 84th | 1st |
| San José State | 68th | 70th |
| South Alabama | 53rd | 28th |
| South Carolina | 31st | 8th |
| South Carolina State | 10th | 3rd |
| South Florida | 86th | 46th |
| Southern Miss | 27th | 38th |
| Stanford | 12th | 12th |
| Syracuse | 19th | 10th |
| TCU | 63rd | 82nd |
| Temple | 85th | 22nd |
| Tennessee | 97th | 81st |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 88th | 59th |
| Texas State | 60th | 93rd |
| Texas Tech | 45th | 65th |
| Toledo | 67th | 42nd |
| Troy | 18th | 27th |
| Tulane | 81st | 86th |
| Tulsa | 43rd | 43rd |
| UAB | 34th | 94th |
| UCF | 39th | 20th |
| UCLA | 28th | 48th |
| UConn | 96th | 37th |
| UL Monroe | 13th | 14th |
| UNLV | 78th | 85th |
| USC | 94th | 90th |
| UT Martin | 2nd | 41st |
| UTEP | 3rd | 10th |
| UTSA | 67th | 92nd |
| Utah | 87th | 96th |
| Utah State | 31st | 49th |
| Vanderbilt | 90th | 100th |
| Virginia | 36th | 73rd |
| Virginia Tech | 59th | 21st |
| Wake Forest | 21st | 31st |
| Washington | 98th | 93rd |
| Washington State | 61st | 44th |
| West Virginia | 12th | 18th |
| Western Kentucky | 55th | 80th |
| Western Michigan | 86th | 16th |
| Wisconsin | 6th | 27th |
| Wyoming | 23rd | 15th |
Halftime identity
1st-half offense ranks 30th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 23rd — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
Schedule mirage
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.09; 36th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.01. The widest gap came in week 1: 0.33 raw vs. 0.03 adjusted.
Arkansas State reads strongest in passing epa (top 49%) and success rate (top 57%); the crux lives in rushing epa, where Arkansas State sits at the 5th percentile.
offense · strengths lead
defense · higher bar = harder to play against
hidden math · special situations
Most Similar Programs · Arkansas State
Static-attribute similarity across tier, archetype, conference, and voice. Not a prediction — a calibration.
Home-Field Advantage · Arkansas State · 2018-present
59% home win rate vs 31% on the road. margin runs +12.9 better at home. Centennial Bank Stadium seats 30,382, averaging 55% full (16,711 attendance, 24 games reported).
Positional competition · RB room
Kenyon Clay and Devin Spencer split the carries (136/244 vs 108/244) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Kenyon Clay gets the clock-killing work; Devin Spencer produces in bigger chunks.
Positional competition · WR/TE room
Corey Rucker (WR) and Tyler Fortenberry (TE) split the targets (130/168 vs 38/168) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
What changed
Play-calling barely moved on the change — every rate held within a few points.
Play-calling barely moved on the change — every rate held within a few points.
Season by season
Defensive identity · pass zones
On short passes, Arkansas State’s defense allows a completion rate above the FBS mean (68.5% vs 65.9% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 160-play sample) — mid-pack, 110 of 133 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball leaderboard here: at the defense level, most teams face well under 30 rich-feed deep targets all season — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess.
69°F average kickoff temp; 9% of games had measurable precipitation; 8 mph average wind.
Based on 70 home games with weather data.
12 seasons inside the CFP era, no bids yet — the era the program is still trying to break into.
Arkansas State's 2014–2025 record is 77-74. The era is still being written; the CFP line is the one the program is arguing for.
All-Time Record
since 1914 · 83 seasons · .428 win rate
Arkansas State won five straight Sun Belt titles and produced three head coaches who ran Power programs — and then watched every one of them leave. Butch Jones is in year six in Jonesboro, which is itself a kind of record, and the Red Wolves are trying to remember what it felt like to own the league.
The coaching factory is the most specific thing about Arkansas State, and it is a double-edged identity. From 2011 to 2015, the Red Wolves won five consecutive Sun Belt championships. Hugh Freeze won the 2011 title and went to Ole Miss. Gus Malzahn won the 2012 title and went to Auburn, where he coached a national-title game. Bryan Harsin won and went to Boise State, then Auburn. The program built the blueprint that the SEC harvested. No program in the Group of Five produced more head-coaching talent per win in that stretch — and none watched more of that talent leave Jonesboro for a bigger check and a bigger stadium. The Red Wolves rebranded in 2008, built a dynasty, and spent the decade since watching the dynasty's architects build elsewhere.
Butch Jones arrived and did something the carousel years had not managed: he stayed. In year six, entering 2026, Jones is the rarest figure in Arkansas State history — a coach with enough tenure to build something that looks like institutional continuity rather than a launchpad. The 2025 season was a 7-6 finish: a 1-4 start against a schedule that included Power foes Arkansas and Iowa State, then six wins in the last eight and a 34-28 bowl win over Missouri State. The trajectory moved belief in Jonesboro. The decade-long drought from the dynasty has not ended, but the program is not declining further, either.
The 2026 Sun Belt race is what the Red Wolves need. The conference has changed since the 2011-2015 run — more competition, different members, the league's footprint reshuffled. Arkansas State's question is whether Jones can get the program into the title conversation the way Freeze and Malzahn did — but this time with a staff that does not leave the moment they do it.
Up-tempo spread football with Malzahn-Freeze DNA running under the surface — Arkansas State at its best pushes pace, spreads formations, and tries to manufacture big plays in a high-scoring Sun Belt environment. The defensive identity has been the 2025 variable; the seven-win season turned on stopping the bleeding after the early losses. Jones has brought stability; the scheme is fast and pass-oriented, built for the league's tempo, and dependent on finding the right quarterback each cycle through the portal.
Arkansas State 2016–2025. Holding the line. The 10-year slope (-0.04 rungs / yr) doesn't tilt either way — the program lives at roughly Tier 2.
12 seasons on file
down middle peak CFP year
Season Standing · 2025 · 7-6
Arkansas State: 6+ wins, bowl access secured. The baseline of a successful FBS year.
Sun Belt Standing · 2025
Arkansas State is 7th of 14 in the Sun Belt at 4-3. The path to the title is steep — the focus is on bowl access and rivalry wins.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Madison | 8-0 |
| 2 | Old Dominion | 6-2 |
| 3 | Southern Miss | 5-3 |
| 4 | Troy | 5-3 |
| 5 | Coastal Carolina | 5-4 |
| 6 | Georgia Southern | 5-4 |
| 7 | Arkansas State | 4-3 |
| 8 | Louisiana | 4-3 |
| 9 | South Alabama | 3-4 |
| 10 | Louisiana Tech | 2-0 |
| 11 | Marshall | 2-5 |
| 12 | App State | 2-7 |
| 13 | UL Monroe | 1-6 |
| 14 | Georgia State | 0-8 |
Coaching Era · Arkansas State
Butch Jones has held the program for 6 seasons — the era is established.
Three gameday rituals — the ones outsiders never quite catch.
since 2011
Arkansas State won 5 consecutive Sun Belt championships (2011-2015) — a Sun Belt dynasty that produced multiple bowl wins + the coaching pipeline (Hugh Freeze → Gus Malzahn → Bryan Harsin → Blake Anderson). The era + the multiple top-25 finishes define modern A-State identity.
since 2008
'Wolves Up' — the program's defiance-rooted mantra paired with the Red Wolves mascot rename (2008, from Indians) — captures the modern A-State identity. The hand-sign gesture + the wolf-howl tradition + the post-touchdown ritual create permanent fan identity.
Program memory
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
2013
Three head coaches in three years, each leaving for a Power job after winning the league — the program's blessing and its curse
Wound
2015
The 2011-2015 dynasty — the most dominant run in conference history
Moment of the Year · Arkansas State · 2025
Week 16 of 2025. Postseason win — the season-defining moment.
Bowl / Postseason Ledger
Most recent: 2025 — win 34-28 (home). Last 5 postseason: 3-2.
Unit lineage
FBS-relative efficiency percentile per season (2014–2025), same population as the Coordinator Mirror board. Dashed vertical lines mark a coordinator change.
Hired for 2026: Garrett Altman — not yet reflected in on-field data.
All-time top community posts · ranked by upvotes
Arkansas State · Next-Season Outcome Band
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
Fanbase Health Index · Arkansas State · medium confidence
2025 stat leaders
How They Play · 2025
Most Similar Programs · Arkansas State
Season Standing · 2025 · 7-6
Coaching Era · Arkansas State
Moment of the Year · Arkansas State · 2025
Bowl / Postseason Ledger