Butch Jones

Head coach · Arkansas State
6th season · since 2021 · Tennessee before

At school30-41since 2021 · 4-4 this seasonHot seatWarm10% · 36th of 132 jobsLast gameW 38-32vs Georgia State · Oct 24Nextvs UL MonroeSat Nov 7 · 3 pm ET
This week · as of Wed Nov 4

4-4, won 2 straight, on track for 6-6 in the regular season.

Now

Career arc

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerFBS medianCentral MichiganCincinnatiTennesseeArkansas StateEastern MichiganEastern MichiganMiami (OH)Miami (OH)AlabamaAlabamaUL MonroeUL MonroeDynastythe sport's summitBlue Bloodpermanent top tierPower Programperennial contenderNational Programrespectable, streakyRegional Programthe building-block levelCentral Michigan when he took over: 14.7 (Regional Program IV), its final 2006 readingCentral Michigan, 2007: 8-6, Regional Program IIICentral Michigan, 2007: 8-6, Regional Program III2007Central Michigan, 2008: 8-5, Regional Program IIICentral Michigan, 2009: 11-2, Regional Program IICentral Michigan, 2009: 11-2, Regional Program II2009+6.0Cincinnati when he took over: 36.9 (National Program II), its final 2009 readingCincinnati, 2010: 4-8, National Program IICincinnati, 2010: 4-8, National Program II2010Cincinnati, 2011: 10-3, National Program ICincinnati, 2012: 9-3, National Program ICincinnati, 2012: 9-3, National Program I2012+3.6Tennessee when he took over: 47.5 (Power Program III), its final 2012 readingTennessee, 2013: 5-7, Power Program IIITennessee, 2013: 5-7, Power Program III2013Tennessee, 2014: 7-6, Power Program IIITennessee, 2015: 9-4, Power Program IIITennessee, 2016: 9-4, Power Program IITennessee, 2017: 4-6, Power Program IIITennessee, 2017: 4-6, Power Program III2017+1.5Arkansas State when he took over: 21.4 (Regional Program II), its final 2020 readingArkansas State, 2021: 2-10, Regional Program IIArkansas State, 2021: 2-10, Regional Program II2021Arkansas State, 2022: 3-9, Regional Program IVArkansas State, 2023: 6-7, Regional Program IVArkansas State, 2024: 8-5, Regional Program IVArkansas State, 2025: 7-6, Regional Program IVArkansas State, 2026: 4-4, Regional Program IVArkansas State, 2026: 4-4, Regional Program IV2026-7.6best: 2016gray dashed: rival programs · ○ the program when he took over · Dashed segments are program changes — spacing is not proportional to calendar time

Bowls and playoffs: 6-3

Central Michigan’07L’08LCincinnati’11WTennessee’14W’15W’16WArkansas State’23L’24W’25W

Show all 9 games
Central Michigan2007Motor City BowlL 48-512008Motor City BowlL 21-24Cincinnati2011Liberty BowlW 31-24Tennessee2014TaxSlayer BowlW 45-282015Outback BowlW 45-62016Music City BowlW 38-24Arkansas State2023Camellia BowlL 19-21202468 Ventures BowlW 38-312025Xbox BowlW 34-28

This week Wed Nov 4

  • Last gameW 38-32 vs. Georgia State Sat Oct 24
  • This season4-4 won 2 straight
  • Hot seat10% 36th of 132
  • On track for6-6 regular season
  • Nextvs. UL Monroe Sat Nov 7
  • Stature110th of 138 FBS programs

Win and he’s at 9%. Lose and he’s at 15%.

vs. UL Monroe, Sat Nov 7, 3 pm ET ESPN+ · UL Monroe is 1-7 · Jones vs. Bryant Vincent: 1-1 · Arkansas State’s chance to win: 86% (the site’s model)

CoolWarmHotBoilingIf Arkansas State wins: 9%, 39th of 132Now: 10%If Arkansas State loses: 15%, 27th of 1320%50%+
CoolWarmHotBoiling0%50%+
  • If Arkansas State wins: 9%, 39th of 132
  • Now: 10%
  • If Arkansas State loses: 15%, 27th of 132
His chance of being out after the season, now and after Saturday. Each tick is an FBS head coach’s number today; ranks are against today’s field. From the site’s hot-seat model.

Is he getting fired?

10% chance he’s out after the season · 36th of 132 FBS head coaches · Warm

Coolunder 10%Warm10–20%Hot20–35%Boiling35% upNow15% had they lost15% had they lostLoss 15%Win 9%21%25%21%23%18%16%18%13%10%Pre1L at MemphisL2W vs. West GeorgiaW3L at TCUL4W vs. Kennesaw StateW5L at LouisianaL6L vs. South AlabamaL7W at Southern MissW8W vs. Georgia StateW9Chance to win vs. UL Monroe86%10Chance to win at Coastal Carolina54%11Chance to win at Louisiana Tech17%12Chance to win vs. Troy59%Game number. Under each game: the result, or his team’s chance to win it
CoolWarmHotBoilingNow15% had they lostLoss 15%Win 9%21%10%Pre368912Game
Dark line: his number after each game; a small dot just before a game is where it stood at kickoff, after other results moved it. Gray: where it could go, 8 seasons in 10 (darker, the middle half). The hollow dot: had his last game gone the other way. From the site’s hot-seat model.

If he finishes…

Bar: how likely that finish isNumber: his chance of being out

  1. 4-822%
  2. 5-714%
  3. 6-69%
  4. 7-55%
  5. 8-43%
Why his number is where it is

Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.

Now right where 2025 was at this point.

His hot seat, week by week

The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.

BoilingHotWarmCool2021202220232024202520262021, week 3 (3 games in): 3%, 83rd-hottest of 125 FBS jobs2021, week 4 (4 games in): 4%, 77th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 5 (5 games in): 6%, 66th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 6 (6 games in): 6%, 60th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 7 (6 games in): 6%, 63rd-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 8 (7 games in): 7%, 61st-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 9 (8 games in): 8%, 57th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 10 (9 games in): 8%, 54th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 11 (10 games in): 6%, 57th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 12 (11 games in): 6%, 54th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 13 (12 games in): 7%, 54th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 14 (12 games in): 7%, 54th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 15 (12 games in): 7%, 54th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2022, week 3 (3 games in): 20%, 24th-hottest of 125 FBS jobs2022, week 4 (4 games in): 23%, 24th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 5 (5 games in): 23%, 24th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 6 (6 games in): 25%, 21st-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 7 (7 games in): 27%, 16th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 8 (8 games in): 31%, 14th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 9 (9 games in): 32%, 12th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 10 (9 games in): 32%, 12th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 11 (10 games in): 30%, 12th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 12 (11 games in): 33%, 12th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 13 (12 games in): 32%, 9th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 14 (12 games in): 32%, 9th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 15 (12 games in): 32%, 9th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2023, week 3 (3 games in): 42%, 3rd-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2023, week 4 (4 games in): 34.9%, 7th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 5 (5 games in): 33%, 8th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 6 (6 games in): 35%, 9th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 7 (6 games in): 35%, 10th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 8 (7 games in): 36%, 10th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 9 (8 games in): 29%, 14th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 10 (9 games in): 24%, 17th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 11 (10 games in): 23%, 17th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 12 (11 games in): 21%, 21st-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 13 (12 games in): 24%, 17th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 14 (12 games in): 24%, 17th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 15 (12 games in): 24%, 17th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2024, week 3 (3 games in): 29%, 13th-hottest of 111 FBS jobs2024, week 4 (4 games in): 30%, 15th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 5 (4 games in): 30%, 17th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 6 (5 games in): 27%, 19th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 7 (6 games in): 28%, 19th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 8 (7 games in): 23%, 22nd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 9 (8 games in): 21%, 22nd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 10 (8 games in): 21%, 22nd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 11 (9 games in): 20%, 23rd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 12 (10 games in): 16%, 28th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 13 (11 games in): 13%, 31st-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 14 (12 games in): 18%, 26th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 15 (12 games in): 18%, 26th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 16 (12 games in): 18%, 26th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2025, week 3 (3 games in): 21%, 19th-hottest of 118 FBS jobs2025, week 4 (4 games in): 26%, 16th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 5 (5 games in): 27%, 12th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 6 (6 games in): 21%, 23rd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 7 (6 games in): 21%, 21st-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 8 (7 games in): 15%, 33rd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 9 (8 games in): 12%, 37th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 10 (9 games in): 9%, 43rd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 11 (10 games in): 11%, 37th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 12 (10 games in): 11%, 37th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 13 (11 games in): 13%, 31st-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 14 (12 games in): 9.6%, 39th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 15 (12 games in): 9.6%, 39th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 16 (12 games in): 9.6%, 39th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2026, week 3 (3 games in): 23%, 21st-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2026, week 4 (4 games in): 18%, 30th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 5 (5 games in): 16%, 30th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 6 (6 games in): 18%, 24th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 7 (7 games in): 13%, 34th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 8 (8 games in): 9%, 44th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 9 (8 games in): 10%, 40th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 10 (8 games in): 10%, 36th-hottest of 132 FBS jobsnowHottest: 2023, week 3▲ 1-2, outscored by 83

Hottest: 2023, week 3 (42%, 3rd-hottest of 130 FBS jobs that week). Top factor: ▲ Hotter 1-2, outscored by 83

Earlier seasons price the games left with power ratings rebuilt after those seasons ended.

What drives his number

The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.

  • ▲ Hotter
    Year 6 · tenure, which this model overrates
    (why?)

    Tenure is one of this model’s strongest inputs, but its weight was set when retirements like Nick Saban’s and Bob Stoops’ still counted as being pushed out, so it overstates how much tenure matters.

  • ▼ Cooler
    Regional Program program · the bar going in
  • ▲ Hotter
    $2.2M buyout · 2.7× his pay, a multiple below average in FBS — cheap to move on

What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025

A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.

Were 4-4 after 8 games
8% pushed out over results · of 504 coaches
Were in years 5-9, after 8 games
14% pushed out over results · of 700 coaches
The outcome
Pushed out over results — a firing, forced resignation, mutual parting or non-renewal, each read case by case. Leaving for a better job, or retiring on his own terms, doesn’t count.
Buyout
$2,245,833 reported, USA Today, Oct. 2025 · 2.7× total pay · a small buyout, which raises his chance of being let go · without it: 7%

How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.

No headlines named him in the last 7 days

The headlines, Oct 25–Nov 4 from a few outlets

What they are talking about, week and season

Offense: 48th of 138 per play. Defense: 93rd.

Offense, per play48thOffense, staying on schedule12thDefense, per play93rdDefense, opponents' starting field position129thWorstBest
Offense, per play48th of 138Offense, staying on schedule12th of 138Defense, per play93rd of 138Defense, opponents' starting field position129th of 138WorstBest
Through 8 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is Arkansas State. The other two rows are where Arkansas State stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

4 games left

  1. Sat Nov 7vs. UL Monroe (1-7)ESPN+86%
  2. Sat Nov 14at Coastal Carolina (3-5)ESPN+54%
  3. Sat Nov 21at Louisiana Tech (6-2)17%
  4. Sat Nov 28vs. Troy (4-4)59%

Percent: Arkansas State’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Where Arkansas State stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).

104th110th116thPreseason109thMemphis L 24-42Memphis L 24-42L 24-42Memphis109thWest Georgia W 52-7West Georgia W 52-7W 52-7West Georgia110thTCU L 7-31TCU L 7-31L 7-31TCU110thKennesaw State W 17-14Kennesaw State W 17-14W 17-14Kennesaw State112thLouisiana L 20-23Louisiana L 20-23L 20-23Louisiana111thSouth Alabama L 49-56South Alabama L 49-56L 49-56South Alabama112thSouthern Miss W 23-13Southern Miss W 23-13W 23-13Southern Miss108thGeorgia State W 38-32Georgia State W 38-32W 38-32Georgia State108th
  1. Oct 26–Nov 1No game3 headlines · 70th of 138Butch Jones touts Arkansas State’s momentum in Little Rock Touchdown Club appearance The Arkansas Democrat-Gazette
  2. Oct 19–25W 38-32 vs. Georgia State1 headline · 81st of 138
  3. Oct 12–18W 23-13 at Southern Miss0 headlines
  4. Oct 5–11L 49-56 vs. South Alabama2 headlines · 70th of 138‘It makes me sick to my stomach' – Butch Jones had an eventful night including a strange viral clip and cursing during his post-game press conference Yahoo Sports
  5. Sep 28–Oct 4L 20-23 at Louisiana0 headlines
  6. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltW 17-14 vs. Kennesaw State1 headline · 83rd of 138

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from Arkansas State’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.

Poach watch

This winter

4%chance he leaves this winter for a head-coaching job elsewhere, or an NFL coordinator jobSettled47th-highest of 132 FBS head coaches
0%50%+

Our poach model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, his program, his pay and his background. Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches this season. The zone words describe the market’s interest; none of them says he is leaving.

What drives his number

The biggest factors in his profile, each against the typical FBS head coach today. The games he has left are priced into the number, not listed here.

  • ▼ Lower
    Age 58 · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in
  • ▲ Higher
    Paid $835,000 in 2025, the 14th percentile of published FBS head-coach pay · up 1% on the season before
  • ▲ Higher
    His team is 4-4, outscoring opponents by 1.5 points a game
How good is this number? It ranks a head coach who leaves for another head-coaching job ahead of one who stays 78 to 82% of the time, and its average came within a point of the share who actually left. What it can’t do

Tested on every FBS head coach from 2012 through 2025, each season scored by a model fit only on the seasons before it. From three games on, given one coach who left for a head-coaching job elsewhere or an NFL coordinator job and one who stayed, it ranked the one who left ahead 79 to 82% of the time; in a season’s first two games, 78%. Its average chance came within a point of the share who actually left. It counts a move a coach makes while he still holds the job; when his school ends it, that doesn’t count, even if another school then hires him.

  • The live number prices the games he has left with the power model’s ratings from this season. The test priced them with each team’s rating from the season before, because ratings made during past seasons were not kept, so this live version could not be replayed.
  • Programs new to FBS have no FBS record before this season in the data it reads, so their coaches are scored without one.
  • It is frozen: it learns nothing from 2026 until a deliberate refit.
  • A coach hired in December needs his background (age, alma mater, the state he was born in) added before his first game, or he shows as not rated.

Report card

Offense carries it: 39th percentile offense, bottom-quarter defense at 13th.

Arkansas State, every completed season graded against the whole field, then averaged.

Offense

C-
of which —39th
efficiency — 39th percentile success rate, 2021–25
C-35th
Standard-downs success
C+46th
Passing-downs success
C-36th
Trench push (line yards)
B-58th
Red-zone scoring rate
C41st
Power-success (short yardage)
C+49th
Ball security (giveaways per game)

Defense

F
of which —13th
13th percentile SP+ defense, 2021–25
B+74th
Front-7 havoc
B66th
Secondary havoc
C+49th
Stuff rate (run defense)
C-39th
Takeaways per game

Each season is his team’s percentile among every team with that stat (the share it beat), averaged over his completed seasons here; a mid-season takeover year and the season in progress aren’t graded. Letters: A+ 90th percentile and up, A 80, B+ 70, B 60, B− 50, C+ 45, C 40, C− 30, D 15, F below.