Butch Jones
Followed Blake Anderson. Butch Jones held Arkansas State at Regional Program II for 6 seasons.
In his own words
Everyone talks about building that connection and building that trust, but that’s something we started right when they walked in the doors
That’s been the word we’ve studied all offseason
You really don’t find out about your football team until they go through the natural adversities of a long football season
(It’s) the overall connection, the character, the ability to suffer and go through the natural adversities of a long season
The culture, the connection, everything is non-negotiable
I wanted individuals that had really overachieved and come from programs that had high expectations of what they developed themselves
Career arc
His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.
Reached Power Program in his 7th career season — faster than 21% of the 395 FBS coaches who have ever reached Power Program (rank #297 of 395 by seasons-to-arrival).
Style position and drift
Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.
Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.
The big-game ledger
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
18–10 against his rivals. Winless in 4 tries against Nick Saban.
His own effect, isolated
A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.
Model fit as of 2026-09-04.
Coaching career
5th-best Arkansas State tenure of 12 by the numbers.
Underperforms his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.
Followed Blake Anderson (2014–2020).
| Season | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record & result | |||||||
| Record | 2–10 | 3–9 | 6–7 | 8–5 | 7–6 | 0–0 | |
| Postseason | — | — | L bowl | W bowl | W bowl | — | |
| Recruiting rank | #105 | #67 | #74 | #78 | #75 | #85 | |
| Style — pass rate | |||||||
| Pass rate | 60.1 | 51.0 | 44.6 | 47.7 | 53.1 | 40.5 | |
| Coordinators | |||||||
| OC | Keith Heckendorf | Keith Heckendorf | Keith Heckendorf | Keith Heckendorf | Keith Heckendorf | Garrett Altman | |
| DC | Rob Harley | Rob Harley | Rob Harley | Rob Harley | Griff McCarley | Griff McCarley | |
| Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile | |||||||
| Offense | 8 | 12 | 49 | 52 | 21 | 61 | |
| Defense | 9 | 25 | 34 | 2 | 36 | 15 | |
| Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only) | |||||||
| 1st-down pass% | 54.3 | 41.5 | 40.4 | 44.5 | 47.7 | 42.2 | |
| Red-zone pass% | 64.3 | 53.8 | 29.6 | 42.3 | 46.2 | 30.0 | |
| 4th-down go%opp. territory | 26.2 | 37.0 | 32.4 | 36.2 | 42.3 | — | |
A typical amount of portal roster-building.
Typical size for position, once adjusted for position mix.
A typical class-year mix of incoming transfers.
AI Narratives — “Arkansas State — stat check”.
12th-best Tennessee tenure of 16 by the numbers.
Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.
Followed Derek Dooley (2010–2012) · succeeded by Jeremy Pruitt (2018–2020).
| Season | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record & result | ||||||
| Record | 5–7 | 7–6 | 9–4 | 9–4 | 4–6 | |
| Postseason | — | W bowl | W bowl | W CFP | — | |
| Recruiting rank | — | #7 | #4 | #14 | #17 | |
| Style — pass rate | ||||||
| Pass rate | — | 46.4 | 37.6 | 42.3 | 43.6 | |
| Coordinators | ||||||
| OC | — | Mike Bajakian | Mike DeBord | Mike DeBord | Larry Scott | |
| DC | — | John Jancek | John Jancek | Bob Shoop | Bob Shoop | |
| Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile | ||||||
| Offense | — | 40 | 63 | 88 | 10 | |
| Defense | — | 61 | 76 | 41 | 40 | |
| Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only) | ||||||
| 1st-down pass% | — | 46.7 | 29.4 | 35.2 | 36.5 | |
| Red-zone pass% | — | 46.5 | 35.2 | 35.5 | 47.1 | |
| 4th-down go%opp. territory | — | 13.0 | 17.6 | 23.5 | 9.1 | |
16 NFL Draft picks: Cordarrelle Patterson (2013), Justin Hunter (2013), Dallas Thomas (2013), Mychal Rivera (2013), Ja'Wuan James (2014), Zach Fulton (2014), Dan McCullers (2014), Derek Barnett (2017) + 8 more
3rd-best Cincinnati tenure of 19 by the numbers.
Followed Brian Kelly (2006–2009) · succeeded by Tommy Tuberville (2013–2016).
9 NFL Draft picks: Mardy Gilyard (2010), Tony Pike (2010), Ricardo Mathews (2010), Jason Kelce (2011), Derek Wolfe (2012), Isaiah Pead (2012), John Hughes (2012), Adrien Robinson (2012) + 1 more
4th-best Central Michigan tenure of 10 by the numbers.
Followed Brian Kelly (2004–2006) · succeeded by Dan Enos (2010–2014).
5 NFL Draft picks: Joe Staley (2007), Dan Bazuin (2007), Drew Mormino (2007), Dan LeFevour (2010), Antonio Brown (2010)