Cincinnati: a football coaching history

Big movers show how many stature points they built or lost against what they inherited; steadier tenures show the tier they reached instead. A small blue arrow marks a real System Shift at that changeover — how hard the offense’s run/pass identity flipped.

2023–now

Scott Satterfield Steady

Scott Satterfield slid the Bearcats from Power Program III to National Program I in 4 seasons.

2023 defense ranked in the 0th percentile nationally — historically bad

−12.0 pts over 4 seasons · bottom 7% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Rich Rodriguez’s Michigan run (2008–2010)

3rd-best Cincinnati tenure of 14 by the numbers.

Followed Luke Fickell (2017–2022).

System Shift, on arrival

Season	2023	2024	2025	2026
Record & result
Record	3-9	5-7	7-6	5-3
Postseason	—	—	L bowl	—
Recruiting rank	#75	#51	#61	#58
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	41.0	48.2	47.5	41.9
Coordinators
OC	Brad Glenn	Brad Glenn	Brad Glenn	Pete Thomas / Nic Cardwell
DC	Bryan Brown / Nate Fuqua	Tyson Veidt / Nate Fuqua	Tyson Veidt / Cortney Braswell	Nate Woody / Cortney Braswell
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	52	40	81	74
Defense	0	56	22	18
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	42.6	45.7	42.8	39.2
Red-zone pass%	37.8	54.0	44.7	33.3
4th-down go%opp. territory	47.8	34.3	40.7	30.0

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on offense and underperforms his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent

+6.5 pts

#76 of 208 · middle half

Defense vs. talent

-25.4 pts

#191 of 208 · bottom quarter

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Roster construction · portal era

A portal-built roster.

Portal arrivals

3.0★ avg rating

Portal departures

left via the portal

Net portal flow

-5

#34 of 187 FBS stints

Notable portal arrivals with a modeled NIL value

Brendan Sorsby On3 modeled · $2,014,429Joe Cotton On3 modeled · $1,000,000

On3’s modeled estimate (social reach / exposure), not money actually paid — shown per player, never totaled.

Who they bring in

Typical size for position, once adjusted for position mix.

A typical class-year mix of incoming transfers.

Avg. size (raw)

6′1″, 230 lbs

across 69 of 88 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix

Size vs. position-typical

+4.9 lbs

#102 of 255 · middle half

Avg. class year

#66 of 255 · middle half

Top states: OH (10), GA (8), TX (7), FL (7), LA (5)

Who won the portal our read

Talent added

57.9

position-weighted

Talent lost

61.8

position-weighted

Net

-3.9

arrivals minus departures

Best addition: Brendan Sorsby (QB) from Indiana

Biggest loss: Brendan Sorsby (QB) to Texas Tech

Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.

Does the system survive a coordinator change?

OC: Brad Glenn → Pete Thomas (co) / Nic Cardwell (co) · 2026

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

1st-down pass rate: 42.8% → 39.2% (-3.6 pts)

Confound, shown not hidden: only 8% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.

DC: Bryan Brown / Nate Fuqua (co) → Tyson Veidt / Nate Fuqua (co) · 2024

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

DC: Tyson Veidt / Nate Fuqua (co) → Tyson Veidt / Cortney Braswell (co) · 2025

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

DC: Tyson Veidt / Cortney Braswell (co) → Nate Woody / Cortney Braswell (co) · 2026

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

Roster size, by position

Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)

Quarterback

222 lbs

6′2″ avg · #141 of 767 · top quarter

Running back

204 lbs

5′9″ avg · #531 of 791 · middle half

Wide receiver

193 lbs

6′0″ avg · #409 of 791 · middle half

Tight end

249 lbs

6′4″ avg · #239 of 731 · middle half

Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters

Interior line

314 lbs

6′4″ avg · #178 of 779 · top quarter

D-line

296 lbs

6′3″ avg · #148 of 753 · top quarter

Linebacker

227 lbs

6′2″ avg · #436 of 772 · middle half

Cornerback

188 lbs

6′0″ avg · #486 of 771 · middle half

Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.

Where the roster comes from, by position

Buys Kicker via the portal

100%

#1 of 56 stints

Buys Wide receiver via the portal

69%

#26 of 243 stints

Postseason detail2025: Lost to Navy 13-35 AutoZone Liberty Bowl

6 NFL Draft picks: Jowon Briggs (2024), John Williams (2025), Jake Golday (2026), Joe Royer (2026), Cyrus Allen (2026), Gavin Gerhardt (2026)

−12.0

20-25

2022

Kerry Coombs Short tenure

No outlier style signal this stint

0-1

2017–2022

Luke Fickell Builder≈ ◆ COY

Luke Fickell raised the Bearcats from National Program II to Power Program III.

2020 defense ranked in the 95th percentile nationally — elite

+12.3 pts over 6 seasons · top 12% of 6-9-season tenures (368 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Bret Bielema’s Illinois run (2021–now)

1st-best Cincinnati tenure of 14 by the numbers.

Followed Tommy Tuberville (2013–2016) · succeeded by Scott Satterfield (2023–now).

System Shift, on departure

System Shift, on arrival

Season	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022
Record & result
Record	4-8	11-2	11-3	9-1	13-1	9-3
Postseason	—	W bowl	W bowl	L bowl	CFP loss	—
Recruiting rank	#63	#48	#79	#40	#42	#42
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	53.9	38.5	38.0	43.6	46.3	49.5
Coordinators
OC	Mike Denbrock	Mike Denbrock	Mike Denbrock	Mike Denbrock	Mike Denbrock	Gino Guidugli
DC	Marcus Freeman	Marcus Freeman	Marcus Freeman	Marcus Freeman	Mike Tressel	Colin Hitschler / Mike Tressel
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	40	84	59	86	83	42
Defense	19	90	90	95	90	87
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	48.2	36.1	32.4	47.1	47.8	51.6
Red-zone pass%	45.1	27.7	24.8	27.9	42.5	46.2
4th-down go%opp. territory	22.2	54.5	31.0	35.1	29.4	34.8

Recruiter or developer?

Outperforms his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent

+14.4 pts

#52 of 208 · top quarter

Defense vs. talent

+27.3 pts

#11 of 208 · top quarter

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Roster construction · portal era

Barely touches the portal — recruits and develops his own.

Portal arrivals

3.1★ avg rating

Portal departures

left via the portal

Net portal flow

-10

#167 of 187 FBS stints

Who they bring in

Brings in bigger-than-position-typical players than most.

Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.

Avg. size (raw)

6′3″, 248 lbs

across 8 of 10 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix

Size vs. position-typical

+11.5 lbs

#5 of 255 · top quarter

Avg. class year

#1 of 255 · top quarter

Top states: OH (4), KY (1), ON (1), PA (1), IL (1)

Who won the portal our read

Talent added

33.5

position-weighted

Talent lost

47.8

position-weighted

Net

-14.4

arrivals minus departures

Best addition: Ben Bryant (QB) from Eastern Michigan

Biggest loss: Michael Lindauer (QB) to the portal

Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.

Does the system survive a coordinator change?

DC: Marcus Freeman → Mike Tressel · 2021

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

Roster size, by position

Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)

Quarterback

217 lbs

6′3″ avg · #258 of 767 · middle half

Running back

210 lbs

5′11″ avg · #293 of 791 · middle half

Wide receiver

195 lbs

6′1″ avg · #274 of 791 · middle half

Tight end

251 lbs

6′5″ avg · #167 of 731 · top quarter

Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters

Interior line

314 lbs

6′5″ avg · #176 of 779 · top quarter

D-line

276 lbs

6′3″ avg · #548 of 753 · middle half

Edge

257 lbs

6′3″ avg · #77 of 188 · middle half

Linebacker

225 lbs

6′2″ avg · #542 of 772 · middle half

Cornerback

197 lbs

6′1″ avg · #65 of 771 · top quarter

Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Tight end from high school

100%

#164 of 188 stints

Grows Interior line from high school

83%

#185 of 224 stints

Postseason detail2018: Beat Virginia Tech 35-31 Bowl2019: Beat Boston College 38-6 Ticketsmarter Birmingham Bowl2020: Lost to Georgia 21-24 Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl2021: Lost to Alabama 6-27 CFP Semifinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic

19 NFL Draft picks: Korey Cunningham (2018), Cortez Broughton (2019), Josiah Deguara (2020), James Hudson (2021), Darrick Forrest (2021), James Wiggins (2021), Gerrid Doaks (2021), Ahmad Gardner (2022) + 11 more

Coach of the Year: AAC Coach of the Year (2020), AAC Coach of the Year (2021)

5 player-seasons honored (All-America / national award): James Wiggins (2020), Sauce Gardner (2020), Coby Bryant (2021), Sauce Gardner (2021), Ivan Pace Jr. (2022)

+12.3

57-18

2013–2016

Tommy Tuberville Steady

Tommy Tuberville slid the Bearcats from National Program I to National Program II in 4 seasons.

No outlier style signal this stint

−9.3 pts over 4 seasons · bottom 15% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Rod Carey’s Temple run (2019–2021)

4th-best Cincinnati tenure of 14 by the numbers.

Followed Butch Jones (2010–2012) · succeeded by Luke Fickell (2017–2022).

System Shift, on departure

System Shift, on arrival

Season	2013	2014	2015	2016
Record & result
Record	9-4	9-4	7-6	4-8
Postseason	L bowl	L bowl	L bowl	—
Recruiting rank	#60	#65	#68	#74
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	47.6	52.0	51.7	53.3
Coordinators
OC	—	Eddie Gran	Eddie Gran	Zac Taylor
DC	—	Robert Prunty / Hank Hughes	Robert Prunty / Steve Clinkscale	Robert Prunty
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	68	89	69	10
Defense	42	40	29	69
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	41.8	44.5	49.9	47.7
Red-zone pass%	26.4	42.6	39.7	52.4
4th-down go%opp. territory	25.0	24.4	15.2	25.5

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent

-10.5 pts

#152 of 208 · middle half

Defense vs. talent

-0.8 pts

#110 of 208 · middle half

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Does the system survive a coordinator change?

OC: Eddie Gran → Zac Taylor · 2016

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

1st-down pass rate: 49.9% → 47.7% (-2.2 pts)

Confound, shown not hidden: only 50% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.

DC: Robert Prunty (co) / Hank Hughes (co) → Robert Prunty (co) / Steve Clinkscale (co) · 2015

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

DC: Robert Prunty (co) / Steve Clinkscale (co) → Robert Prunty · 2016

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Tight end from high school

100%

#164 of 188 stints

Grows Tackle from high school

100%

#198 of 223 stints

Postseason detail2013: Lost to North Carolina 17-39 Belk Bowl2014: Lost to Virginia Tech 17-33 Military Bowl Presented By Northrop Grumman2015: Lost to San Diego State 7-42 Hawai'i Bowl

3 NFL Draft picks: Parker Ehinger (2016), Chris Moore (2016), Mike Tyson (2017)

−9.3

29-22

2010–2012

Butch Jones Steady

Butch Jones moved Cincinnati from National Program II to National Program I in 3 seasons.

No outlier style signal this stint

+3.6 pts over 3 seasons · top 18% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Tom Herman’s Texas run (2017–2020)

2nd-best Cincinnati tenure of 14 by the numbers.

Followed Brian Kelly (2006–2009) · succeeded by Tommy Tuberville (2013–2016).

System Shift, on arrival

System Shift, on departure

Season	2010	2011	2012
Record & result
Record	4-8	10-3	9-3
Postseason	—	W bowl	—
Recruiting rank	#56	#47	#51
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	52.0	43.9	43.0
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	58	20	79
Defense	67	49	27
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	48.4	40.6	40.6
Red-zone pass%	57.8	38.8	28.7
4th-down go%opp. territory	29.0	26.9	16.7

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Edge from high school

100%

#191 of 208 stints

Grows Running back from high school

100%

#196 of 208 stints

Postseason detail2011: Beat Vanderbilt 31-24 AutoZone LIBERTY BOWL

6 NFL Draft picks: Jason Kelce (2011), Derek Wolfe (2012), Isaiah Pead (2012), John Hughes (2012), Adrien Robinson (2012), Travis Kelce (2013)

+3.6

23-14

2006–2009

Brian Kelly Builder≈

Brian Kelly raised the Bearcats from Regional Program I to National Program II.

2009 defense ranked in the 5th percentile nationally — historically bad

+12.7 pts over 3 seasons · top 3% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Billy Napier’s Louisiana run (2018–2021)

5th-best Cincinnati tenure of 14 by the numbers.

Followed Mark Dantonio (2004–2006) · succeeded by Butch Jones (2010–2012).

System Shift, on arrival

System Shift, on departure

Season	2006	2007	2008	2009
Record & result
Record	1-0	10-3	11-3	12-0
Postseason	W bowl	W bowl	L bowl	—
Recruiting rank	—	#87	#104	#56
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	—	49.3	50.9	56.7
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	—	74	61	90
Defense	—	40	60	5
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	—	48.2	48.7	57.7
Red-zone pass%	—	55.3	46.7	52.9
4th-down go%opp. territory	—	36.7	30.4	23.3

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Tight end from high school

100%

#164 of 188 stints

Grows Edge from high school

100%

#191 of 208 stints

Postseason detail2006: Beat Western Michigan 27-24 International Bowl At Toronto On2007: Beat Southern Miss 31-21 Bowl2008: Lost to Virginia Tech 7-20 Fedex Orange Bowl

11 NFL Draft picks: Haruki Nakamura (2008), Angelo Craig (2008), Connor Barwin (2009), Kevin Huber (2009), DeAngelo Smith (2009), Brandon Underwood (2009), Mike Mickens (2009), Trevor Canfield (2009) + 3 more

+12.7

34-6

2004–2006

Mark Dantonio Steady

Mark Dantonio held Cincinnati at Regional Program I for 3 seasons.

No outlier style signal this stint

−0.6 pts over 3 seasons · top 36% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Jerry Kill’s Minnesota run (2011–2015)

10th-best Cincinnati tenure of 14 by the numbers.

Followed Rick Minter (1994–2003) · succeeded by Brian Kelly (2006–2009).

System Shift, on departure

Season	2004	2005	2006
Record & result
Record	7-5	4-7	7-5
Postseason	W bowl	—	—
Recruiting rank	#104	#85	#109
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	41.7	45.0	40.2
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	18	24	55
Defense	83	32	90
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	39.3	43.0	36.3
Red-zone pass%	49.2	28.6	33.0
4th-down go%opp. territory	50.0	11.5	20.9

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Tight end from high school

100%

#164 of 188 stints

Grows Running back from high school

100%

#196 of 208 stints

Postseason detail2004: Beat Marshall 32-14 Bowl

5 NFL Draft picks: Trent Cole (2005), Tyjuan Hagler (2005), Daven Holly (2005), John Bowie (2007), Brent Celek (2007)

−0.6

18-17

1994–2003

Rick Minter Builder

Rick Minter raised Cincinnati from Regional Program V to Regional Program I.

+14.2 pts over 10 seasons · top 41% of 10+-season tenures (202 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Chuck Martin’s Miami (OH) run (2014–now)

11th-best Cincinnati tenure of 14 by the numbers.

Followed Tim Murphy (1989–1993) · succeeded by Mark Dantonio (2004–2006).

Season	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003
Record & result
Record	2-8-1	6-5	6-5	8-4	2-9	3-8	7-5	7-5	7-7	5-7
Postseason	—	—	—	W bowl	—	—	L bowl	L bowl	L bowl	—
Recruiting rank	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Defense	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Red-zone pass%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4th-down go%opp. territory	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Tight end from high school

100%

#164 of 188 stints

Grows Interior line from high school

100%

#198 of 224 stints

Postseason detail1997: Beat Utah State 35-19 Bowl2000: Lost to Marshall 14-25 Bowl2001: Lost to Toledo 16-23 Bowl2002: Lost to North Texas 19-24 Bowl

13 NFL Draft picks: Sam Garnes (1997), Robert Tate (1997), Artrell Hawkins (1998), Brad Jackson (1998), Jason Fabini (1998), Derrick Ransom (1998), Rodrick Monroe (1998), Chad Plummer (1999) + 5 more

+14.2

53-63-1

1989–1993

Tim Murphy Steady

Tim Murphy slid the Bearcats from Regional Program IV to Regional Program V in 5 seasons.

−2.8 pts over 5 seasons · top 48% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Mick Dennehy’s Utah State run (2000–2004)

14th-best Cincinnati tenure of 14 by the numbers.

Followed Dave Currey (1984–1988) · succeeded by Rick Minter (1994–2003).

3 NFL Draft picks: Ronnie Dixon (1993), Michael Davis (1994), Jocelyn Borgella (1994)

−2.8

17-37-1

1984–1988

Dave Currey Steady

Dave Currey slid Cincinnati from Regional Program II to Regional Program III in 5 seasons.

−9.0 pts over 5 seasons · bottom 17% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Scottie Montgomery’s East Carolina run (2016–2018)

13th-best Cincinnati tenure of 14 by the numbers.

Followed Watson Brown (1983) · succeeded by Tim Murphy (1989–1993).

2 NFL Draft picks: Alex Gordon (1987), Andrew Stewart (1989)

−9.0

19-36

1983

Watson Brown Short tenure

4-6-1

1981–1982

Mike Gottfried Short tenure

12-10

1977–1980

Ralph Staub Steady

Ralph Staub moved the Bearcats from National Program III to National Program II in 4 seasons.

−2.9 pts over 4 seasons · top 50% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: John Bobo’s Arkansas State run (1993–1996)

6th-best Cincinnati tenure of 14 by the numbers.

Followed Tony Mason (1973–1976) · succeeded by Mike Gottfried (1981–1982).

2 NFL Draft picks: Mike Woods (1978), Farley Bell (1980)

−2.9

14-28-2

1973–1976

Tony Mason Steady

Tony Mason moved the Bearcats from Regional Program II to National Program III in 4 seasons.

+8.5 pts over 4 seasons · top 7% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: G.J. Kinne’s Texas State run (2023–now)

9th-best Cincinnati tenure of 14 by the numbers.

Followed Ray Callahan (1969–1972) · succeeded by Ralph Staub (1977–1980).

4 NFL Draft picks: Evan Jolitz (1974), Jeff West (1975), Tom Marvaso (1976), Keith Jenkins (1977)

+8.5

25-19

1969–1972

Ray Callahan Steady

Ray Callahan moved the Bearcats from Regional Program II to Regional Program I in 4 seasons.

−3.2 pts over 4 seasons · bottom 47% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Hal Mumme’s New Mexico State run (2005–2008)

12th-best Cincinnati tenure of 14 by the numbers.

Followed Homer Rice (1967–1968) · succeeded by Tony Mason (1973–1976).

2 NFL Draft picks: Jim O'Brien (1970), Bob Bell (1971)

−3.2

20-23

1967–1968

Homer Rice Short tenure

8-10-1

1961–1966

Charles Studley Steady

Charles Studley slid the Bearcats from National Program III to Regional Program I in 6 seasons.

−3.5 pts over 6 seasons · bottom 30% of 6-9-season tenures (368 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Ruffin McNeill’s East Carolina run (2010–2015)

8th-best Cincinnati tenure of 14 by the numbers.

Followed George Blackburn (1955–1960) · succeeded by Homer Rice (1967–1968).

−3.5

27-33

1955–1960

George Blackburn Steady

George Blackburn slid the Bearcats from National Program II to National Program III in 6 seasons.

−4.1 pts over 6 seasons · bottom 26% of 6-9-season tenures (368 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Chris Scelfo’s Tulane run (1999–2006)

7th-best Cincinnati tenure of 14 by the numbers.

Followed Sid Gillman (1954) · succeeded by Charles Studley (1961–1966).

−4.1

25-27-6

1954

Sid Gillman Short tenure

8-2