The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Luke Fickell

Luke Fickell held Wisconsin at Power Program II for 5 seasons.

Peak, then fade

80–46

2011–now · 3 stints

In his own words

The ones who have the most success, like Marcus has, are ones who create an identity for themselves, not just where they've been, whether it's his time with us at Cincinnati or his time at Ohio State or his time under Jim Tressel
FOX Sports · Sep 5, 2026 · the day before Wisconsin's 2026 opener

It's not just Marcus that we've got a long history with

FOX SportsSep 5, 2026the day before the opener

Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Reached Blue Blood in his 1st career season — faster than 59% of the 100 FBS coaches who have ever reached Blue Blood (rank #1 of 100 by seasons-to-arrival).

Cincinnati, 6 seasons

+12.3

National Program III → Power Program III.

Wisconsin, 5 seasons (active)

−8.1

Power Program II → Power Program III.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)

How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints

Cincinnati15.9pt#38 of 258 · more than most

Wisconsin11.6pt#97 of 258 · a typical amount

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

6–8 against his rivals. Winless in 3 tries against Kirk Ferentz.

Rivalry record

6–8

42.9% · 6 rivals

One-score games

19–12

61.3% · margin ≤8

vs. Blue Blood or better

0–1

0.0%

Buyout owed

$27,493,333 (est.)

bigger than 76% of FBS buyouts

Rivalry ledger

Miami (OH)4–0100%

Iowa0–30%

Minnesota1–233%

Nebraska1–150%

Penn State0–10%

Michigan0–10%

The toughest matchup

vs. Kirk Ferentz0–3

3 meetings, 2023–2025

’23 L’24 L · blew a 3-pt lead’25 L

0% win rate across a real, 3-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.

Performance by opponent class

Dynasty

0–1 0.0%

Blue Blood

0–7 0.0%

Power Program

3–15 16.7%

National Program

22–15 59.5%

Regional Program

37–4 90.2%

What fans are saying

Fan claims · every quote verified verbatim

program directionLimited signal that season

fans think the team's performance has declined under his leadership

He's ruined Wisconsin football in just about every aspect. We've lost our respect. We've lost our identity. We've lost our team.
This is all to say that I need the Luke Fickell era to become yesterday. Someone please find the nearest tarmac to leave him on. What an utter disaster of a hire.

Based on 3 comments from 2 posters across 2 threads · Jul 9, 2026–Sep 7, 2026 · via Wisconsin Badgers, WisconsinBadgers

Show all 4

job securityEarly signal — few voices

fans believe Luke Fickell is at risk of being fired and has harmed the program

I understand im just 1 person so I don't mean shit, but I'm boycotting Badger football until Luke Fickell is no longer the head coach. He's ruined Wisconsin football in just about every aspect. We've lost our respect. We've lost our identity. We've lost our team. And all at the hands of Luke Fickell and Chris McIntosh. Thankfully, half the duo is gone. Just need to get rid of the other half
Luke Fickell More Likely To Get Fired Than Anyone Else in CFB

Based on 2 comments from 2 posters across 2 threads · Jun 3, 2026–Jul 9, 2026 · via Wisconsin Badgers, WisconsinBadgers

recruiting effortOne fan's take that season

One fan thinks Luke Fickell focused too much on out-of-state recruits

I think one of the biggest mistakes made by Fickell has been a lack of in state recruiting.

Based on 1 comment from 1 poster across 1 thread · Sep 7, 2026 · via WisconsinBadgers

job securityOne fan's take that season

One fan believes Fickell's buyout is too expensive to fire him

Realistically the buyout is so big Fickell is getting another year even if we lose out

Based on 1 comment from 1 poster across 1 thread · Oct 4, 2025 · via CFB

Coaching career

2022–now

Wisconsincaretaker

Power Program II → Power Program II

Luke Fickell held Wisconsin at Power Program II for 5 seasons.

6th-best Wisconsin tenure of 14 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Underperforms his recruiting talent on offense and performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent

-27.6 pts

#197 of 208 · less than most

Defense vs. talent

+1.8 pts

#90 of 208 · a typical amount

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Season	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Record & result
Record	4–3	7–6	5–7	4–8	0–0
Postseason	W bowl	L bowl	—	—	—
Recruiting rank	#44	#58	#23	#27	#78
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	39.4	50.8	46.6	39.2	45.6
Coordinators
OC	Bobby Engram	Phil Longo	Phil Longo	Jeff Grimes	Jeff Grimes
DC	Jim Leonhard	Colin Hitschler / Mike Tressel	Alex Grinch / Mike Tressel	Mike Tressel	Mike Tressel
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	51	45	23	8	13
Defense	79	60	48	56	12
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%	27.7	45.4	41.1	38.6	36.1
Red-zone pass%	30.5	42.5	39.8	26.7	—
4th-down go%opp. territory	28.6	35.4	30.3	32.4	—

Roster construction · portal era

A typical amount of portal roster-building.

Portal arrivals

3.1★ avg rating

Portal departures

113

left via the portal

Net portal flow

-26

#56 of 187 FBS stints

Notable portal arrivals with a modeled NIL value

Colton Joseph On3 modeled · $1,000,000

On3’s modeled estimate (social reach / exposure), not money actually paid — shown per player, never totaled.

Who they bring in

Brings in bigger-than-position-typical players than most.

A typical class-year mix of incoming transfers.

Avg. size (raw)

6′2″, 236 lbs

across 71 of 87 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix

Size vs. position-typical

+7.3 lbs

#49 of 255 · more than most

Avg. class year

#135 of 255 · a typical amount

Top states: OH (11), TX (11), FL (8), IL (6), GA (5)

Who won the portal our read

Talent added

59.9

position-weighted

Talent lost

60.2

position-weighted

Net

-0.3

arrivals minus departures

Best addition: Tanner Mordecai (QB) from SMU

Biggest loss: Graham Mertz (QB) to Florida

Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.

Does the system survive a coordinator change?

OC: Phil Longo → Jeff Grimes · 2025the offense collapsed across the change

2-season window either side.

1st-down pass rate: 43.3% → 37.4% (-5.9 pts)

Confound, shown not hidden: only 40% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.

DC: co-Colin Hitschler / Mike Tressel → co-Alex Grinch / Mike Tressel · 2024

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

DC: co-Alex Grinch / Mike Tressel → Mike Tressel · 2025

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

Roster size, by position

Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)

Quarterback

211 lbs

6′2″ avg · #426 of 767 · a typical amount

Running back

221 lbs

5′11″ avg · #33 of 791 · more than most

Wide receiver

196 lbs

6′0″ avg · #274 of 791 · a typical amount

Tight end

249 lbs

6′3″ avg · #232 of 731 · a typical amount

Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters

Interior line

313 lbs

6′6″ avg · #230 of 779 · a typical amount

D-line

296 lbs

6′3″ avg · #137 of 753 · more than most

Linebacker

237 lbs

6′2″ avg · #65 of 772 · more than most

Cornerback

190 lbs

6′0″ avg · #402 of 771 · a typical amount

Safety

208 lbs

6′1″ avg · #5 of 346 · more than most

Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.

Where the roster comes from, by position

Buys Edge via the portal

69%

#36 of 208 stints

Buys Wide receiver via the portal

61%

#55 of 243 stints

Postseason detail2022: Beat Oklahoma State 24–17 Guaranteed Rate Bowl2023: Lost to LSU 31–35 ReliaQuest Bowl

12 NFL Draft picks: Leo Chenal (2022), Logan Bruss (2022), Jake Ferguson (2022), Matt Henningsen (2022), Faion Hicks (2022), Joe Tippmann (2023), Keeanu Benton (2023), Nick Herbig (2023) + 4 more

17–21

2017–2022

Cincinnatibuilderborderline🏆 coach of the year ×2

National Program II → Power Program III

Luke Fickell raised Cincinnati from National Program II to Power Program III.

1st-best Cincinnati tenure of 19 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Outperforms his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent

+17.0 pts

#46 of 208 · more than most

Defense vs. talent

+28.3 pts

#11 of 208 · more than most

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Tommy Tuberville (2013–2016) · succeeded by Scott Satterfield (2023–2026).

Season	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022
Record & result
Record	4–8	11–2	11–3	9–1	13–1	9–3
Postseason	—	W CFP	W bowl	L bowl	L bowl	L bowl
Recruiting rank	#63	#48	#79	#40	#42	#42
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	53.9	38.5	38.0	43.6	46.3	49.5
Coordinators
OC	Mike Denbrock	Mike Denbrock	Mike Denbrock	Mike Denbrock	Mike Denbrock	Gino Guidugli
DC	Marcus Freeman	Marcus Freeman	Marcus Freeman	Marcus Freeman	Mike Tressel	Colin Hitschler / Mike Tressel
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	40	84	59	89	97	42
Defense	19	90	90	96	94	87
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%	48.2	36.1	32.4	47.1	47.8	51.6
Red-zone pass%	45.1	27.7	24.8	27.9	42.5	46.2
4th-down go%opp. territory	22.2	54.5	31.0	35.1	29.4	34.8

Roster construction · portal era

Barely touches the portal — recruits and develops his own.

Portal arrivals

3.1★ avg rating

Portal departures

left via the portal

Net portal flow

-10

#167 of 187 FBS stints

Who they bring in

Brings in bigger-than-position-typical players than most.

Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.

Avg. size (raw)

6′3″, 248 lbs

across 8 of 10 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix

Size vs. position-typical

+11.2 lbs

#2 of 255 · more than most

Avg. class year

#1 of 255 · more than most

Top states: OH (4), KY (1), ON (1), PA (1), IL (1)

Who won the portal our read

Talent added

33.5

position-weighted

Talent lost

47.8

position-weighted

Net

-14.4

arrivals minus departures

Best addition: Ben Bryant (QB) from Eastern Michigan

Biggest loss: Michael Lindauer (QB) to the portal

Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.

Does the system survive a coordinator change?

DC: Marcus Freeman → Mike Tressel · 2021

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

Roster size, by position

Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)

Quarterback

217 lbs

6′3″ avg · #258 of 767 · a typical amount

Running back

210 lbs

5′11″ avg · #293 of 791 · a typical amount

Wide receiver

195 lbs

6′1″ avg · #274 of 791 · a typical amount

Tight end

251 lbs

6′5″ avg · #167 of 731 · more than most

Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters

Interior line

314 lbs

6′5″ avg · #176 of 779 · more than most

D-line

276 lbs

6′3″ avg · #548 of 753 · a typical amount

Edge

257 lbs

6′3″ avg · #77 of 188 · a typical amount

Linebacker

225 lbs

6′2″ avg · #542 of 772 · a typical amount

Cornerback

197 lbs

6′1″ avg · #65 of 771 · more than most

Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Tight end from high school

100%

#164 of 188 stints

Grows Interior line from high school

83%

#185 of 224 stints

Postseason detail2018: Beat Virginia Tech 35–31 CFP2019: Beat Boston College 38–6 Ticketsmarter Birmingham Bowl2020: Lost to Georgia 21–24 Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl2021: Lost to Alabama 6–27 CFP Semifinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic2022: Lost to Louisville 7–24 Wasabi Fenway Bowl

20 NFL Draft picks: Mike Tyson (2017), Korey Cunningham (2018), Cortez Broughton (2019), Josiah Deguara (2020), James Hudson (2021), Darrick Forrest (2021), James Wiggins (2021), Gerrid Doaks (2021) + 12 more

Coach of the Year: AAC Coach of the Year (2020), AAC Coach of the Year (2021)

5 player-seasons honored (All-America / national award): James Wiggins (2020), Sauce Gardner (2020), Coby Bryant (2021), Sauce Gardner (2021), Ivan Pace Jr. (2022)

57–18

2011–2011

Ohio Stateinheritor

Blue Blood → Blue Blood

Luke Fickell inherited a Blue Blood Ohio State and won with it.

7th-best Ohio State tenure of 12 by the numbers.

Followed Jim Tressel (2001–2010) · succeeded by Urban Meyer (2012–2018).

9 NFL Draft picks: Cameron Heyward (2011), Chimdi Chekwa (2011), Jermale Hines (2011), Brian Rolle (2011), Ross Homan (2011), Mike Adams (2012), DeVier Posey (2012), Dan Herron (2012) + 1 more

6–7

Defining games during this era

2021 Cotton Bowl semifinal · Alabama 27, Cincinnati 6